Icosystem Corporation and
Predictive Analytics
IOP 2006
January 18, 2006
Who knows what the future holds?
Predicting the future requires more than looking at the past…
Who knows what the future holds?
Predictive Analytics
Icosystem uses advanced analytical techniques that don’t
just extrapolate the past into the future.
• Agent Based Modeling
• Interactive Search
“History shows you don't know what the future brings.”
-Rick Wagoner, GM CEO
Who uses our models?
Corporate:
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Aventis
BP
DuPont
Eli Lilly
Humana
La Poste
PepsiCo
Schlumberger
Unilever
Government:
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Air Force Research
Lab
U.S. Army
DARPA
DISA
IDA
NUWC
OFT
ONR
What is Agent Based Modeling?
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Bottom-up simulations from the
perspective of an individual
person/company/market
•
Interactions between individuals
change behaviors during course of
simulation
•
Global trends emerge, rather than
being determined up front
Emergent behavior: the Icosystem
game
Computer simulation of the Icosystem
game
A is the aggressor, B the defender, try
to keep B between you and A
A is the aggressor, you are the
defender, keep yourself between A and
B
See demo at http://www.icosystem.com/game.htm
Why is this interesting?
The Icosystem Game:
a deceptively simple complex system
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Knowing the behavior of every individual
is not enough to predict system behavior
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Slight changes in rules or interactions can
lead to dramatic changes in system
behavior
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The traditional reductionist (i.e., divideand-conquer) does not work!
Supermarket Shopper Behavior
Client:
Fortune 500 consumer
goods company
Deli
entrance
Produce
Frozen food
Complexities:
•Correlate cart tracking data
with consumer behavior
•Predict behavior for novel
supermarket configurations
Outcome:
Identified key behavioral
drivers; tool development
contracted in Q2’05.
target
CSD
Challenge:
Understand behavior of
shoppers moving through a
supermarket
•How do they navigate?
•What do they purchase?
•Where to place products?
Parking lot
Entrance
Registers
Predictive Analytics
Technique #2: Interactive Search
“I know well what I am fleeing from, but not what I am in search of.”
-Michel de Montaigne
Drug Discovery
Client:
Fortune 100 pharma
company
Challenge:
Increase the success rate/
quality of molecules in the
early stages of drug
development
Complexities:
•Vast search space
•Chemist knowledge cannot
be completely codified
•Huge expense for each
failure
Outcome:
Created tool which
generates novel compound
designs based on interactive
chemist feedback
Interactive Search applied to Open
Source information
biathlon
bronze
skiing
ceremony
nationalgold
skating
pins
winter olympic
rings
Torino
bobsled
security
pride
torch
rice
eggplant
food
burghal
shortage
safety
checkpoint
truck
car
build
road
bridge
pedestrian
buying
spices
saffron
save
Shi’a Sunni
Muslim
prayer
forgive
religion
save
United
States
bomb
freedom
defend
fundamental war
Al Qaeda jihad
elections
liberty
Iraq
war
guns
destroy
kill
goat
mosque
peace
brave
defend uniforms
Marines Army
transit
lamb
US troops
barricade
bus
Festival of Eid
preparation
cafe
success
explosion
helicopter
storage
lentil
pastry
engineer
Baby Noor
English
pencil
What if we
could easily
monitor
communication
volume
school
bike
learn
laugh
safety
children
train
friend
doll
toys
play Xbox 360
AND
content?
Interactive Search applied to Open
Source information
biathlon
bronze
skiing
ceremony
nationalgold
skating
pins
winter olympic
rings
engineer
Torino
bobsled
checkpoint
labor
truck
car
pastry
preparation
rice
eggplant
food
burghal
road
shortage
safety
spices
US troops
saffron
seeds
defend
rice
bus
uniforms
Army
water
save
irrigation liberty
burghal
Oil-for-food
pedestrian
goat
heat
bomb
US troops
giant hamsters
kill
starvation
safety
Baby Noor
Shi’a Sunni
Muslim
prayer
peace
forgive
religion
save
Iraq
war
destroy
refrigeration
mosque
lamb
buying
brave
farmers
Marines
barricade
Festival of Eid
storage
cafe
drought
United
transit
States
build
shortage
bridge
helicopter
lentil
success
explosion
freedom
defend
fundamental war
Al Qaeda jihad
English
pencil
school
bike
learn
laugh
safety
children
train
friend
doll
destroy
destroy rations
starvation
US troops
unleash
toys
play Xbox 360
giant
hamsters
hamster plague
airdrop
hamsters of mass
destruction
Come see us at our table!
“My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is
to finish what I start. So far today, I have finished 2 bags of M
and M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already.”
- Dave Barry
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