GLOSSARY OF FUTURE STUDIES
GLOSSARY
Studienauftrag des
Planungsamtes der Bundeswehr
2
agent based
modelling
actor analysis
 models based on “interacting agents and what
results from the interaction among those agents”
Byrne (2002: 135)
 a relatively new computational modeling paradigm,
is the modeling of phenomena as dynamical systems
of interacting agents.
Castiglione (2006: 1562)
 computer-based (multi-)agent models simulate
actions and interactions of individual system agents
in order to assess the theory’s combined effects on
system configurations and functions
Glaser et al. (2012)
 agents as “any object whose state can change in
response to other system variables”
Anderies (2002: 19)
 identifies important cultural actors (persons,
institutions and organizations) who have an
influence on the future of an organization.
RAHS Methodenliste
 analyzes their goals and interests.
 recognizes key factors or catalysts for a trend. The
identification of a key actor follows by mapping the
actors through the coordinates of conflict and
cooperation potential.
application
 Application Software: Computer software designed
to help the user to perform specific tasks
Fundamentals of Computer
Systems (2013)
backcasting
 describes in hindsight how to reach an ideal,
normative future.
RAHS Methodenliste
 Turning around the causal logic working from the
future to the past sharpens the understanding of the
dynamic change of basic factors.
black swans
 an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular
expectations, because nothing in the past can
convincingly point to its possibility
Taleb (2008)
 carries an extreme impact
 in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us
concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact,
making it explainable and predictable
brainstorming
 Serves as a creative method for the free association
and collection of ideas and key points for one theme,
before real research work begins.
RAHS Methodenkatalog
brainwriting
 A universal method to collect ideas for any given
problem, whereby a key word is commented on in
writing by all participants in a workshop one after
the next to produce a final, pluralistic picture of the
word.
RAHS Methodenliste
cross-impact
analysis
 “method (…) to see how different trends or actions
affect each other or to analyse the interrelationships
between variables within the system”
Lindgren et al. (2003: 152)
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
 Cross-impact analysis is the general name given to a
family of techniques designed to evaluate changes in
the probability of the occurrence of a given set of
events consequent on the actual occurrence of one of
them. The cross impact model was introduced as a
means of accounting for the interactions between a
set of forecasts, when those interactions may not
have been taken into consideration when individual
forecasts were produced.
European Commission
(2006)
 “involves cross-tabulating possible events on a
matrix that allows the interaction between every
pair of events to be reviewed”
Hooley et al. (2008: 197 f.)
 three forms of impact can be evaluated (impact,
timing, probability)
decision matrix
 related to the assumption of “cyclic fluctuations in
the economy and other spheres of the society’s
activity”
Yakovets (2006: 3)
 serves the systematic composition and analysis of
decisionmaking options and their implications.
RAHS Methodenkatalog
 presents rules for hierarchical or causally-connected
decisionmaking.
 can be one component of decision-making software.
 “the objective is (…) the reliable and creative
exploration of ideas or the production of suitable
information for decision making (…) based on a
structured process for collecting and distilling
knowledge from a group of experts by means of a
series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled
opinion feedback”
Ziglio (1996: 3)
 “considered especially useful for long-range aspects
(20 to 30 years) as expert opinions are the only
source of information available for this time horizon”
Cuhls et al. (2002: 13)
 future measures are estimated by asking a group of
experts to make estimates, recirculating the
estimates back to the group, and repeating the
process till the numbers converge
Aabo et al. (2005: 21)
database
 An organized collection of data which is accessible
for software through a defined API
Howe (2010)
demonstrator
 a product (as an automobile) used to demonstrate
performance or merits to prospective buyers
Merriam Webster
Dictionary
delphi method
 a person who engages in a public demonstration
4
dimensional
analysis
discontinuity
environmental
impact
assessment
environmental
scanning
 “a technique that is commonly used in physics and
engineering to reduce the number of independent
degrees of freedom by taking advantage of the
constraints imposed by dimensionality (…). The idea
is to write down all the factors that a given
phenomenon can depend on, and then find the
combination that has the correct dimensions.”
Farmer et al. (2006: 141)
 Dimensional analysis produces relations between
variables that are particularly useful when a ‘formal’
analysis is not available. Its highly valuable strength
is to be the support of experiment, through checks
on the validity of experimental design, in the
ordering of the experimental procedure, by the
enabling of a synthesis of empirical data and in
making feasible some experimentation; in all these it
is a very powerful tool. [...]The vital initial step to
precision is the correct formulation of the physics of
the phenomenon being studied.
Gibbings (2011: vi)
 “Fundamental relationships are dimensionally
consistent and unit-free. The central idea of
dimensional analysis is that those can always be
expressed as relationships between dimensionless
groups.”
Palmer (2008: 38)
 major, drastic shift in a trend which cannot be
accounted for by normal variation
University of Arizona
(2013)
 event that cannot be shown by trend analysis
Millett (2011: 41)
 “a procedure for assessing the environmental
implications of a decision to enact legislation, to
implement policies and plans, or to initiate
development processes”
Wathern (1998: 3)
 focus on cumulative (direct and indirect) impacts,
thereby encompassing the totality of impact to the
affected source
Ecclestone (2011: 1 ff.)
 principles relating to the main activities of
Environmental Impact Assessment: prediction
(direct/indirect impacts, cumulative effects, crosssectorial linkages), risk and hazard assessment,
monitoring, evaluation, communication
Morgan (1998: 28)
 “study and interpretation of political, economic,
social and technological events and trends”
Kroon (2004: 76)
 systematic search of current developments, usually
through detailed review of selected formal and
informal publications, of current developments and
trend shifts that suggest that future changes may
be brewing
Millennium Project (2013)
 defined as continuous, exploratory, and holistic
process
Goyal (2006: 32)
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
event sequence
analysis
 sequence analysis as “analysis of categorical
sequences of events to model entire event history
career trajectories (…) concerned with the order in
which events occur and the transition mechanisms
between additional states”
Mills (2011: 213 f.)
 key steps: describing, visualising, and comparing key
sequences, grouping into clusters, associating
patterns with other variables within regression
models
Hand (2001)
 an analysis of a sequence of events that describes
how things change over time
Van de Ven (1992)
 analysis of developments over time rather than
causal combinations among factors
event tree
 “an event tree is a graphical representation of the
possible outcomes of an incident that results from a
selected initiating event”
Crawley et al. (2003: 39)
extrapolation
 extend the application of (a method or conclusion) to
an unknown situation by assuming that existing
trends will continue or similar methods will be
applicable
Oxford Dictionary
 “estimating a probable figure for the future”
Aggarwal et al. (2010: 3 f.)
 estimating a value that lies outside a known series by
considering the assumption of “no sudden ups and
downs” and “regularity or uniformity of changes”
 through extrapolation of data into future
forecasting, “future estimates can be made on the
basis of available data”
field anomaly
relaxation method
 “forecasting methods where only past values of a
variable (and possibly time itself) are used to
forecast future values”
Albright et al. (2011: 735)
 “the drawing of a conclusion about some future or
hypothetical situation based on observed tendencies
and maintained assumptions”
Manski (2013: 31)
 scenario approach with “a backdrop of internally
consistent futures as contexts for policy formulation
and decision-making (…) potentially applicable for
broader policy-making and decision analysis (…) by
providing consistent and coherent views of the
future”
Faulkner (2003: 321 f.)
 scenario options which exhibit inconsistencies,
anomalies, or infeasibilities are discarded
 at every stage of the scenario building process,
future options “must be relatively coherent and
internally self-consistent if they are to stand as
plausible alternative conditions with the chosen
social field”
Rhyne et al. (2008: 74)
6
Fifth Scenario
 compares a set of exploratory scenarios with a
further normative, ideal future scenario. The future
desired scenario stems from a combination of
positively evaluated elements (a projection of key
factors) from the explorative initial scenario.
RAHS Methodenliste
 The term “Fifth Scenarios“ stems from the angloAmerican future studies field in which generally four
scenario alternatives are explored.
Five Future
Glasses
 serves to analyse future-oriented concepts from
different angles.
RAHS Methodenkatalog
 the first set of glasses stands for a neutral, fact-based
view of the topic; the second set of glasses stands for
a subjective perspective and tries to produce an
analysis based on personal and professional
experience; the third set of glasses focuses on
negative aspects of the topic; the fourth focuses on
only positive aspects; the fifth looks at the
exploration of new perspectives and the
development of ideas for further development.
future news
 a method of communication and multiplication that
appears in the trend or scenario-based process
results.
RAHS Methodenkatalog
 is reported in the form of a fictional newspaper,
radio, or TV report or other media format from
current events at a defined future date.
force-field analysis
 application of field theory through an analysis “that
provides a framework for looking at the factors
(‘forces’) that influence any given situation”
Rock et al. (2009: 404)
 “technique for looking at all the forces for and
against a decision”
forecasting
 conceptualization of a stable situation as “forces
pushing (in favour of) change balanced by those
restraining change”
Rollinson (2008: 643)
 attempt to “predict the future by using qualitative or
quantitative means”
Lucey (2002: 169)
 “a process that has as its objective the prediction of a
future event”
Flores (2000: 235)
 “includes the analysis of historical information with
the purpose of identifying the characteristics for
forecasting”
 technology forecasting: This means making base
forecasts for major forms and end-uses of a certain
product for each country, and subsequently
aggregating them to provide a more reliable estimate
for total world demand.
Rockfellow, John
(1994:47)
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
foresight
 Synonym for future studies describing activities as
critical thinking concerning long-term developments,
debate and effort to create wider participatory
democracy, shaping the future especially by
influencing policy making
Universität der
Bundeswehr
foresight process
 Elements of a successful foresight process:
Horton(1999: 5)
 Phase one comprises the collection, collation and
summarization of available information and results
in the production of foresight knowledge.
 Phase two comprises the translation and
interpretation of this knowledge to produce an
understanding of its implications for the future from
the specific point of view of a particular organization.
 Phase three comprises the assimilation and
evaluation of this understanding to produce a
commitment to action in a particular organization.
future studies
 Possible stages of forecasting: formulate problem,
obtain information, select methods, implement
methods, evaluate methods, use forecasts
Armstrong (2001 : 8)
 Z-punkt refers to the foresight process as “Prozess
des Trendmanagement” which aims at the
“continuous identification, rating, documentation
and interpretation of trends in the own
environment”.
Fink, A. et al.
 interdisciplinary approach to “gaining
understanding of how today’s conditions and trends
will likely shape the future (…) and how the future
conditions could be shaped by policies and actions
taken (…) today”
Getz (2007: 120)
 study of collecting data and making predictions
based on data collection
Lombardo (2008: 147)
 study of facts (trends, patterns of change, people’s
belief systems)
 contains various competing explanatory theories
futures triangle
 way to explore the possibilities and preferences of
the future
Lnayatullah (2002)
 triangle consists of three dimensions (pulls, pushes,
weights) as organizing methods to identity and
discern plausible futures
futures wheel
 “special technique to organize speculation about and
exploration of the future by a group (…) interpreted
as a structured brainstorming”
 several possible outcomes are listed around the
starting event as spikes of a wheel in order to
evaluate further possibilities
Toth (2009: 189)
8
game theory
 concept describing structural components of
biological and social systems as “own” entities but
parts of a larger whole at the same time
Koestler (1978)
 game theory reflects calculated circumstances, also
called games, where a person's success is based
upon the choices of others. It is mainly used in
economics, political science, and psychology.
Carmerer (2011)
 designed to investigate contests where an individual
does better at the cost of another player, also called
"zero-sum" games, game theory applies a wide range
of class relations, and has developed into an
umbrella term for the logical science, to include both
human and non-human decision theory
holon
 “self-similar or fractal structure that is stable and
coherent and that consists of several holons as substructures and is itself a part of a greater whole (…);
multiagent holons are observable by communication
with their representatives”
Schillo et al. (2004: 69)
horizon scanning
 systematic examination of potential threats,
opportunities and likely future developments across
an extensive range of domains, not restricted to
those at the margins of current thinking an planning.
Horizon Scanning Center,
National Security
Coordination Secretariat
 may explore novel and unexpected issues,
identifying emerging risks and wild cards. By
establishing a process of acquiring, analyzing and
communicating information, horizon scanning
servers to improve the robustness of an
organization’s policies and evidence base for
enhanced strategic anticipation.
incasting
 the systematic search for potential threats and
opportunities that are currently poorly recognized
Sutherland et al.
(2009:523)
 deductive method within future studies: set of
particular predetermined images of the future from
which several alternative futures scenarios for the
object of research are being deduced
Del Pino (2002: 291)
 to “imagine,” to live in particular future scenarios,
and work through its implications
index
 a number (as a ratio) derived from a series of
observations and used as an indicator or measure
Merriam Webster
Dictionary
 something (as a physical feature or a mode of
expression) that leads one to a particular fact or
conclusion
 a device (as the pointer on a scale or the gnomon of a
sundial) that serves to indicate a value or quantity
indicator
 a thing, esp. a trend or fact, that indicates the state or
level of something: “an indicator of affluence”.
Merriam Webster
Dictionary
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
 a device providing specific information on the state
or condition of something, in particular.
integral futures
 integral futures is, in essence, a perspective, a way of
understanding and operating, it is also true that the
new breadth, depth, range and coherence that it
encourages also lead directly not only to ‘refreshing’
earlier methods, but also giving birth to quite new
ones.
Slaughter (2008: 107)
 understanding of the Integral perspective provides a
welcome boost for understanding, promoting and
applying foresight work in general, and especially
progress toward the widespread implementation of
social foresight.
 four “irreducible” perspectives (subjective, intersubjective, objective, inter-objective)
Bishop et al. (2012: 105
ff.)
 holistic approach leading to broader and deeper
futures thinking
Interface
 A key principle of design is to prohibit access to all
resources by default, allowing access only through
well-defined entry points, i.e. interfaces.
Bill Venners (2005-06-06)
 “This principle is really about dependency
relationships which have to be carefully managed in
a large app. […]Once you depend on interfaces only,
you’re decoupled from the implementation. That
means the implementation can vary, and that’s a
healthy dependency relationship.”
key factors
 the place at which independent and often unrelated
systems meet and act on or communicate with each
other
Merriam Webster
Dictionary
 “There are a number of situations in software
engineering when it is important for disparate
groups of programmers to agree to a ‘contract’ that
spells out how their software interacts. Each group
should be able to write their code without any
knowledge of how the other group's code is written.
Generally speaking, interfaces are such contracts.“
Oracle Java Tutrorials
 are central factors that will drive future
development
Kosow (2007)
 central factors which together form a description of
the scenario field while also having an impact on the
field itself and/or serving as means for the field to
have an impact on the world around it.
 Key factors are thus those variables, parameters,
trends, developments, and events which receive
central attention during the further course of the
scenario process.
lagging indicator
 “a variable that changes after real output changes”
Boyes et al. (2008: 163)
10
 opposite of a leading indicator (usually referred to in
economics)
leading indicator
 leading indicators is a model-based approach to
forecasting originating in economics. Leading
indicators are used as predictors in connection with
a target variable that is led by a single leading
indicator or a combination of leading indicators,
ideally with a constant lead time, and are thus
systematically able to "anticipate peaks and troughs
in the target variable"
 In political science, leading indicator approaches to
forecasting have also been used in connection with
qualitative variables, for example in explaining the
occurrence of complex social phenomena such as
war
macrohistory
method
Marcellino (2006: 881)
Hunt (1997)
 the study of history on the largest scale (over
centuries and within broad patterns)
Audience Dialogue (2007)
 gives structure to various visions of futurists by
providing an “overall-framework” on past, present,
and future
Lnayatullah (2009)
 a systematic procedure, technique, or mode of
inquiry employed by or proper to a particular
discipline or art
Merriam Webster
Dictionary
 a way, technique, or process of or for doing
something
 “Methods operate on an object's internal state and
serve as the primary mechanism for object-to-object
communication. Hiding internal state and requiring
all interaction to be performed through an object's
methods is known as data encapsulation — a
fundamental principle of object-oriented
programming.”
Oracle Java Tutorial
module
 An Abelian group with the distributive action of a
ring. A module is a generalization of a (linear) vector
space over a field K, when K is replaced by a ring.
Encyclopedia of
Mathematics
morphological
analysis
 study of the shape and arrangement of parts of an
object, and how these parts conform to create a
whole. “Objects” in question can be physical objects
(e.g. an organism or an ecology), social objects (a
social system of organisation) or mental objects (e.g.
word forms, concepts or systems of ideas)
Ritchey (2002: 1)
 a way of looking at the future by dividing it into
logically exclusive possibilities
open space
 a place stocked with needed materials, provided for
large groups to present ideas without formal
requirements. The most interesting applications are
then the basis for discussion groups.
RAHS Methodenliste
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
path dependence
 “Most generally, path dependence means that where
we go next depends not only on where we are now,
but also upon where we have been”
Liebowitz et al. (2000:
981)
PINCHASTEM
 a mnemonic summarizing the different kinds of
drivers that cause change. The sequence of letters
has no particular meaning, except to help remember
the concepts
Audience Dialogue (2007)
 P (political, governmental), I (information,
communication, media), N (natural, macroenvironmental), C (conflict), H (health, biological,
micro-environmental), A (artistic, cultural,
recreational), S (social), T (technological,
mechanical, electronic), E (economic), M (moral,
ethical, religious)
 similar acronym to “STEEP”, but more
comprehensive version
plausibility matrix
 a matrix connected with scenarios which illuminates
the plausibility and the meaning of scenarios from
the perspective of different stakeholders and actors.
RAHs Methodenliste
prediction
 “a confident statement about a future state of affairs”
Slaughter (1993: 293)
predictioneering
 method based on game theory models addressing
complex problems ranging from world and security
challenges to personal issues.
De Mesquita (2010)
 leveraging the core game theory concept of selfinterest to predict human decision-making. The
theory and application assumes human decisionmakers will always act in their self-interest. Given
this assumption, we can look forward and reason
backward through a series of decision steps or
iterations to understand what any given player
within a game simulation will choose to do.
process
 “A process is a set of activities that are interrelated or
that interact with one another. Processes use
resources to transform inputs into outputs. Processes
are interconnected
because the output from one process becomes the
input for another process. In effect, processes are
‘glued’ together by means of such input output
relationships.”
ISO 9001:2000
prognosis
 a set of expectations for a future that seems likely to
occur. A prognosis would be less certain than a
prediction but more certain than a forecast
Audience Dialogue (2007)
projection

prototype
 an individual that exhibits the essential features of a
later type
scenario of change ebased on any arbitrary set of
assumptions; usually associated with extrapolation
of trends
Long et al. (1987: 142)
Merriam Webster
Dictionary
12
 an original model on which something is patterned
(archtype)
resilience
 the capacity of a system, enterprise, or a person to
maintain its core purpose and integrity in the face of
dramatically changed circumstances
Zoli (2012)
risk
 effect of uncertainty on objectives
ISO 31000 (2009) /ISO
Guide 73:2002
 (Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other
adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or
situation involving such a possibility.
Oxford English Dictionary
 quantified uncertainty
Frank Hyneman Knight
(1921)
risk assessment
 risk assessment has been suggested as a general
term for the incorporation of risk concepts into
decision making, and has been defined as occurring
in two stages; risk estimation and risk evaluation.
Otway, H. J., Pahner, P.D.
(1976: 124)
robustness test
 The robustness of scenarios can be tested by
confronting them with Wild Cards.
RAHS Methodenliste
social impact
assessment
 “defined as the process or estimating, in advance, the
social consequences that are likely to follow from
specific policy actions or project development,
particularly in the context of appropriate national,
state or provincial environmental policy legislation”
Vanclay (2003: 1)
s-curve
 a bounded differentiable real function that is defined
for all real input values and that has a positive
derivative everywhere
Han et al. (1995)
 also called “Ogive” or “Sigmoid” curve; a
mathematical function having an “S” shape
Institute for Objective
Measurement (2013)
 refers to a brief description of a possible future
Audience Dialogue (2007)
scenario
 “chain scenario” as description of the route from
now to a possible future. Unlike a forecast, which
predicts future values of a few specific variables, a
scenario is more descriptive than numerical
 a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about
alternative future environments in which one’s
decision might be played out right
Lindgren et al. (2003)
 an intentionally consistent view of what the future
might turn out to be
Lindgren et al. (2003)
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
scenario learning
 Scenario learning works best when there are a
number of alternative scenarios to consider, thus
allowing us to assess different possible futures.
Loader (2008)
 Scenarios are more than just tools for our learning;
they’re a stimulus for action and they empower us by
inviting us to take more control of our future.
Thinking about future possibilities can generate
sensitivity to possible changes and their implications
much earlier in the change cycle.
scenario
monitoring
 The continuation of a scenario process in which the
usefulness of the scenario is tested to see whether it
still has current value or whether a new scenario
portfolio needs to be constructed.
RAHS Methodenkatalog
 The timeliness of the development of the indicators
determines whether the scenario has a chance of
actually happening or not.
scenario planning;
 a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in
which organizational decisions may be played out
Lindgren et al. (2003)
 part of strategic planning that relates to the tools and
technologies for managing uncertainties of the future
 three main uses for scenarios: (1) use them to make
strategic plans; (2) focus on the learning process
among the people who created the scenarios; or (3) a
combination of both.
scenario writing
 telling a story based on scenarios which makes it
understandable for a targeted group. This can occur
as a story, film or other type of media.
RAHS Methodenkatalog
seven questions
 a clearly defined set of questions for key decisionmakers. The catalogue of questions should ideally
encompass the social and expert content of a
thematic area.
RAHS Methodenliste
signal
 signals are signs of emerging issues of change and
can reveal possible future trends
Hiltunen (2007)
 in contrast to weak signals, signals are stronger
perceivable and have a higher frequency of
occurrence/reproduction
signals (weak)
 “weak signals mean today’s information that can
foretell the changes in the future (…). As time passes,
it might come out that weak signals were the first
signs or symptoms of a big change, even
megatrends”
Hiltunen (2008: 41)
social mood
 a collectively shared state of mind
Olson (2006); Nofdinger
(2005)
14
socionomics
 Socionomics is a theory of human social behavior
describing the causal relationship between social
mood and social action.
Prechter/Parker (2007)
 The main principles of socionomics are that in
human, self-organized complex systems, the
following statements apply: (1) Shared unconscious
impulses to herd in contexts of uncertainty lead to
the emergence of mass psychological dynamics that
manifest as social mood trends; (2) these social
mood trends conform to hierarchical fractal patterns
that take a repetitive, se lf-affine form and are
therefore probabilistically predictable; (3) these
patterns of aggregate behavior are form-determined
due to endogenous processes rather than
mechanistically determined by exogenous causes;
(4) these social mood trends determine the
character of social actions and are their underlying
cause, both in financial markets and in other
domains.
software
prototyping
 Software prototyping is the process of producing a
partial system early in the development cycle to
ascertain these needs.
Davis (1995: 39)
SOM
 Self-organized, topology preserving projections of
high dimensional data onto a two dimensional map
Ultsch, Alfred (2003)
STEEP/PEST
 STEEP stands for Social, Technological,
Environmental, Economic, and Political analysis
Methodenkatalog
 PEST stands for Political, Economic, Social and
Technological analysis
 describes a framework of macro-factors used in
strategic planning and strategic management
SWOT analysis
 a structured planning method used to evaluate the
Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
with Strength and Weaknesses being internal factors
and Opportunities and Threats external
RAHS Methodenliste
system dynamics
 deals with how things change through time and
includes most of what people find important
Forrester (1997)
 demonstrates how most of the decision-making
policies are the cause of problems that are usually
blamed on others and how to identify policies we can
follow to improve the situation
 System dynamics uses concepts drawn from the field
of feedback control to organize available information
into computer simulation models.
Forrester (1991)
term (long)
 more 5 than 10 years
Universität der
Bundeswehr
term (medium)
 from 3 to up to 5 years
Universität der
Bundeswehr
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
term (short)
 up to 3 years
Universität der
Bundeswehr
theory
 theory is made up of four components, (1)
definitions of terms or variables, (2) a domain where
the theory applies, (3) a set of relationships of
variables, and (4) specific predictions factual claims.
Bunge, M. (1967)
tipping point
 tipping points are a special form of discontinuity
Scheffer et al. (2009)
 generally tipping points describe the points of
sudden change in a dynamic system that interrupt a
continuous, mostly linear development or affect the
direction or pace of such developments
 in complex systems tipping points describe those
parameter constellations that significantly change
the system’s behavior.
trend
 “a pattern or structure in 1-dimensional data”
Kivikunnas (2011)
 “has a specific direction. A development that is
constant over time and does not bring changes with
it cannot be considered a trend.”
van der Duin (2006: 42)
 should have the duration of at least three to five
years in order to distinguish trends from short term
hypes
trend analysis
 trend analysis is part of a strategic planning process
and usually preceded by trend scanning/scouting
Kivikunnas (2011)
 trend analysis describes the method used for active
observation, analysis and interpretation of trends in
cultural, economic and technological business
environments. Based on analysis of publications,
polls of experts, trend studies, etc., historical and
actual trends are described and extrapolated into the
future. This includes everything from trend-scanning
to trend evaluation.
trend break
 “trend break represents a deep-seated value shift in
society, a technological innovation that appears to be
permanent, or a paradigm change”
Kroon (2004: 76)
trend (emerging)
 A trend which rises from an obscure or inferior
position or condition
Universität der
Bundeswehr
trend (micro)
 “small, under the radar forces that can involve as
little as one percent of the population, but which are
powerfully shaping our society“
Penn (2009: xiii)
trend (mega)
 great force that typically results in major changes
that can impact the ways organizations and entire
societies operate for decades to come, if not forever
Naisbitt (1988)
16
trend (meta)
 defined as a system-wide development arising from
the simultaneous occurrence of a number of
independent demographic, economic and
technologic trends.
Snyder (2004)
 a composite scenario of trends
trend management
 “trend management should reconstruct the elements
of a discourse in which shifts of meaning can be
observed, detecting and understanding the nodal
points of a discourse”
Von Groddeck (2013, 28)
trend monitoring
 “trend monitoring typically involves the in-depth
monitoring of relatively few but very important
trends”
Millett, S. M. (2006).
trend radar
 the trend radar is a web-based knowledge tool,
which should enhance the collaboration of
companies by showing the essential middle- and
long term developments in society, economy,
technology, politics and ecology in an
interdisciplinary way
Itonics.de
uncertainty
 “must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the
familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been
properly separated (…) The essential fact is that
‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of
measurement, while at other times it is something
distinctly not of this character; and there are farreaching and crucial differences in the bearings of
the phenomena depending on which of the two is
really present and operating (…) It will appear that a
measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall
use the term, is so far different from an
immeasurable one that it is not in effect an
uncertainty at all"
Knight (1921: 197)
 “Risk is a situation in which a decision must be made
concerning a certain event and the probability
distribution of this event is known.”
Ferrari-Filho et al. (2005:
582)
 “an event having a low probability of occurrence, but
an inordinately high impact if it does”
Rockfellow (1994: 14)
 an event which is highly unlikely to happen, but
would have a huge impact on the human condition if
it did
Audience Dialogue (2007)
 “one of the most unpredictable and potentially
damaging triggers of change of four conceivable
components of change: trends, cycles, emerging
issues, and wild cards.”
Mendonca et al. (2004:
201)
 describes the use of scenarios as a rapid test of
policy responses to the likely trajectories of key
issues
Duckworth et al. (2009)
wildcard
wind tunnelling
 FUTURE STUDIES – GLOSSARY
 derived from the analogy of testing a physical
model’s response to different conditions in a wind
tunnel
 two commonly used wind tunneling approaches: (1)
‘Holistic’ method tests the current strategy against
each scenario and looks for common elements across
the scenarios. This gives insights into the
implications for current strategy and action plans for
dealing with situations under each of the scenarios.
(2) An alternative analytical approach is where
policy options are tested against each scenario.
These are then assessed to determine whether they
are successful in each scenario. If an option is
successful against all scenarios, it is likely to be a
robust policy. If it is a failure in one or more
scenarios, the policy could be reviewed or, if it is
pursued, the risks associated with the failures will be
better understood so that they can be monitored and
managed
 by testing options against appropriate scenarios, it
helps to reduce and manage the associated future
risks.
world cafe
 a special workshop for large groups divided
according to region or another thematic area by
table.
RAHS Methodenliste
 The groups all address one theme with one person
per group as moderator and spokesman, so that
discussion as a large group can occur based on the
information provided by each spokesman.
vision
 “a compelling statement of the preferred future that
an organization or community wants to create.
Visions move and inspire us by stating why we are
working together, what higher contribution flows
from our efforts, and what we are striving to become.
Vision development is the most powerful way to
clarify where you would like change to go”
Bezold (1994)
18
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