April 10, 2015
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With 25% water cutbacks throughout California,
CF and other producers will be under pressure on
additional UAN sales.
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The Woodward, Oklahoma facility will go down for
a turnaround in the last half of June.
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Side-dress UAN demand is expected to be
significant, but traders are pushing back on current
values, due to UAN being overpriced compared to
UREA and NH3.
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Koch and CF are reporting their second highest
March shipping numbers on record.
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Long lines and allocations strained the ammonia
system as midweek supply was tight at all terminals
across the Midwest.
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Inclement weather across the Midwest has slowed
anhydrous movement and application, providing an
opportunity to refill tanks and allowing for chryo
storage on the East Pipe to begin build inventory.
River terminals are aggressively lining up with
bearish Nola replacement costs.
Potash continues to move from dealer inventory,
and is not being replenished. Inland terminals will
have to compete for the business if trucks remain
available.
Canadian potash suppliers are expected to ship on
schedule for the remainder of the spring season.
Railcars on order and released for shipment are
leaving the mine within three days, a sharp contrast
to the supply constraints last year.
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Slow barge movement is giving strength to prompt
values as application activity is ramping up in the
Dakotas and many inland areas are still awaiting
delivered tons to arrive from the South.
Loaded and moving barges are in higher demand as
good weather has allowed for constant running in
most areas and have drained retailer reserves.
ADM at East Dubuque ran out of urea earlier
this week, shifting a significant number of trucks
to Gavilon’s nearby facility with five barges
awaiting unloading.
Spring phosphate demand is experiencing a slow
start in the Cornbelt. The Nola market has found a
short term floor as traders with upriver space have
elected to move product there instead of seeking
fob sales.
Phosphate supply continues to mount at Nola and
interior markets. Barges are fleeted at several
points on the river systems and April vessels are
arriving on schedule.
With trucks readily available, interior markets will
be pressured to compete with river terminals.
Ammonium sulphate supply remains short in the
Midwest. Honeywell’s plant is running below full
capacity the slow influx of raw materials. Supply
outages are beginning to take place at isolated
terminals across the Midwest.
Truck logistics are becoming an issue in the 10-34-0
market because while tons can still be sourced,
getting them in place on time is a challenge.
ATS supply is under pressure in the Kansas and
Nebraska due to T Kerley’s McPherson facility
turnaround and the Ponca City terminal running
below capacity.