Presidential Election
What You Need to Know
Daryl Montgomery
October 27, 2016
Copyright 2016, All Rights Reserved
The contents of this presentation
are not intended as a
recommendation to buy or sell
any security and are for
educational purposes only
The New York Investing meetup is not affiliated
with the New York Life Insurance Co.
2016 Presidential Candidates
Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton
The Background
• This is a highly unusual election. Unlike most, it is
not a race between 2 pro-establishment candidates.
• Establishment is universally aligned against Trump.
• Media has turned into propaganda machine and has
permanently damaged its already low credibility.
• U.S. has divided into 2 opposing camps creating a
politically unstable situation that could last years.
• Trump’s candidacy is part of a worldwide antiglobalist trend toward nationalism.
• Neither candidate will have a mandate.
The Election
• Polls cannot be trusted. Most have been biased by
improper sampling or questions.
• Polls tend to become more honest just before
election, but this did NOT happen in BREXIT.
• Clinton has more support among entire populace,
but only around 50% vote. So, who actually votes
determines outcome.
• Clinton has turnout issues with heavy DEM groups
<30’s and AAs. Will be lower than 2012 and % of
vote will be less. Trump groups, higher turnout.
Some Examples of Skewed Polling from
Real Clear Politics
• Virginia: H+12 Christopher Newport University
-College grads sample 60%, Actual 35%
• Arizona: H+5 Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite
-College grads sample 57%, Actual 26%
-Democrat sample 44%, Actual 30%
• North Carolina H+7 New York Time Upshot/Sienna
- College grads sample 46% , Actual 27%
Trump vs Clinton Rallies
Electoral College (EC) Determines President
• Whoever gets most electoral votes wins.
Gore won popular vote in 2000.
• Clinton’s vote is more geographically.
concentrated. Can result in big wins in some
states, but small losses in many.
• Unlikely, but possible that EC will split
evenly. Congress then votes for president.
• Clinton could win popular vote and Trump
electoral vote.
• Election could be tied up in court.
Best Guess of Electoral College
Blue Clinton, Red Trump, Grey Either
Market Implications
• Polls until the end are likely to indicate Hillary
will win. A Trump win will shock the market.
• Markets will price in a Hillary win. Not much
happens.
• Expect big stock sell off day after if Trump wins.
• Dollar will sell off, bonds will rally.
• Gold will rally.
• Trump stocks will rally big: Coal #1
• Hillary win: Gun stocks #1
The End