Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Enhancing Campus Retention
Studies: Predicting 4- and 6-Year
Degree Attainment with Institutional
and Freshman Survey Data
Linda DeAngelo
CIRP Assistant Director for Research
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Overview of Presentation
 Review findings from recent study on
retention rates at the national level
 Discuss how institutional data and data from
a freshman survey such as CIRP’s Freshman
Survey can be used to predict retention at the
institutional level
 Demonstrate how an institution can use the
formulas created at HERI to compute
expected retention in order to gauge the
effectiveness of their retention programs
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The National Study of Retention
 Data: 1994 CIRP Freshman Survey and
degree completion data provided on 4- and
6-year completers provided by registrars
offices
 262 baccalaureate-granting institutions
 56,818 students – full-time, first-time
freshman in 1994
 Weighted data to represent national norms
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Purpose of Study
 Determine degree completion rates by
gender, race/ethnicity, and institutional type
 Identify entering student characteristics that
predict degree completion
 Develop formulas that individual institutions
can use to compute “expected” retention
rates
 Examine results for 4- and 6-year completers
and for those still enrolled after 6 years
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Major Finding from Study
 Nationally, time to degree has increased
 Results: 36% graduated within four years in
this study. In 1989 a decade earlier, 40%
graduated within four years, and in the late
60s, 47% graduated within four years
 Six-year graduation rate in this study is
59% and this increases to 62% if you count
those still enrolled after 6 years as retained
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Effects of Institutional Type on Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Type
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
Public Universities
28%
58%
62%
Private Universities
67%
80%
80%
Public 4-Year Colleges
24%
47%
52%
Nonsec 4-Year Colleges
58%
67%
68%
Catholic 4-Year Colleges
46%
60%
62%
Data suggests that attending public institutions not only lowers
the chances that a student will complete a degree, but prolongs
time to degree
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Effects of Gender On Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Gender
Men
Women
Total
4
Years
33%
40%
36%
6
Years
55%
60%
58%
6+ Years
59%
62%
61%
Greatest gender gap occurs at 4 years (7%); reduces to 3%
when you take into account students still enrolled after 6 years
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Effects of Race/Ethnicity on Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
White
38%
58%
62%
African American
23%
46%
49%
American Indian
21%
42%
46%
Asian American
39%
65%
69%
Mexican American
21%
46%
53%
Data suggests that the same factors that contribute to low college
attendance rates and low retention rates among URM students may
also be prolonging time to degree
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Effects of Race/Ethnicity and
Institutional Type on Retention
6-Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and Type
Public
Public
University 4-Year
Private
University
Nonsec
4-Year
Catholic
4-Year
White
59%
49%
80%
68%
64%
African
American
45%
41%
73%
50%
48%
American
Indian
44%
37%
72%
56%
32%
Asian
American
65%
51%
87%
76%
58%
Mexican
American
40%
38%
68%
62%
30%
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How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?
Did you know? – Two-thirds of the
variation among institutions in their
degree completion rates is attributable
to differences in their entering classes
rather than to differences in the
effectiveness of their undergraduate
retention programs
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How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?
Our data suggests that it is unwise, and
possibly misleading, to compare the
raw degree completion rates of
different institutions without first taking
into account the level of academic
preparation of each institution’s
students when they first enroll
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Changes in Retention When Student
Characteristics at Entry are Used
Example – Although the 4-year degree
attainment rates at private universities
are more than 40% higher than those at
public colleges, this difference
diminishes to approximately 15% when
expected degree attainment rates are
taken into account
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Retention by High School Grades
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by HS Grades
HS Grades
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
A, A+
58%
78%
79%
A-
47%
68%
70%
B+
35%
59%
62%
B
25%
48%
52%
B-
19%
39%
44%
C+
15%
33%
37%
Data clearly indicated that HS grades are a major determinant of
college completion at 4, 6, and 6+ years
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Retention by SAT Comp Score
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by SAT Score
SAT Score
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
1300+
62%
77%
78%
1200-1299
55%
73%
75%
1100-1199
48%
68%
70%
1000-1099
40%
63%
66%
900-999
30%
52%
56%
Data indicates that the college completion gap between test scores
narrows as time to degree increases
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Retention by HS GPA and SAT Comp
Four-Year Degree Attainment by HS GPA and SAT Comp
SAT Comp Scores
HS
Grades
900 999
1000 1099
1100 1199
1200 1299
1300+
A, A+
42%
54%
60%
63%
69%
A-
41%
46%
52%
61%
61%
B+
33%
39%
42%
48%
51%
B
23%
33%
34%
28%
36%
B-
18%
25%
29%
32%
15%
C+
15%
16%
20%
12%
cell too small
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Predicting Expected Retention:
Institutional or CIRP Variables
 Variables Used: Average HS GPA, SAT
COMP, Gender, Race/Ethnicity
 All are variables that the large majority
of institutions already have available for
analysis
 These variables are also available on
The Freshman Survey from CIRP at
HERI
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Multiple R by Various Retention
Prediction Equations:
Institutional or CIRP Variables
HS GPA
HS GPA
SAT COMP
HS GPA
SAT COMP
Gender
HS GPA
SAT COMP
Gender
Race/Ethnicity
.3084
.3486
.3559
.3601
Factors beyond High School GPA add slightly more than 5%
to the variance accounted for in predicting retention
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Demonstration of HERI
Retention Calculator:
Institutional or CIRP Variables
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Predicting Expected Retention:
If You Use CIRP Freshman Survey
 Substantially improves prediction of
degree completion over what was
possible using only high school grades,
test scores, gender, and race/ethnicity
 Prediction now includes measures of
SES, info about financial aid, activities
as HS seniors, reasons for attending
college, goals, likely college activities,
major, and environmental factors
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Multiple R by Various Retention
Prediction Equations:
For Users of CIRP Freshman Survey
All Inputs
With SAT
Scores
All Inputs
Environments
With SAT
All Inputs
Without SAT
Scores
All Inputs
Environments
Without SAT
.473
.515
.460
.506
With all input factors, SAT Comp adds very little to the
variance accounted for in predicting retention
Most of the variance is accounted for by the effects of
entering students rather than differential institutional effects
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Demonstration of HERI
Retention Calculator:
With All CIRP Available Variables
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Conclusions
 Even students who come to college well
prepared academically are less likely to
persist to degree today than in the past
 Calls for accountability that require the
reporting of “raw” rates of retention
actually harm, rather than enhance, the
incentive for institutions to admit and
educate underprepared students
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Conclusions, Continued
 Institutions can be more accountable for their
effectiveness when they take into account the
characteristics of the students they enroll
 Institutions who participate in the CIRP
Freshman Survey can predict more precise
measures of expected retention
 Having more precise measures of expected
retention enhances institutional, system, and
state level policy and practice
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Question and Discussion Period
 For more information visit HERI at
www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri
 The report “Degree Attainment Rates at
American Colleges and Universities” is
available for purchase or order at the
conference
 My email is: [email protected]
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