The Reality of Dueling
Estimates
Deborah H. Griffin
U.S. Census Bureau
Presented at the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology
2012 Statistical Policy Seminar
Any views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily
those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Discrepant, Competing Estimates”
Cork and Cohen (2005)
• Defined “discrepant, competing estimates” as
social and economic phenomena measured by
different agencies or programs that may differ in
level or long-term trend
• Predicted in 2011 that multiple poverty measures
would exist from varying sources
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Dueling Estimates?
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The Problem
• Confusion by users about which estimate to use
and why multiple estimates exist
• Suspicion that only one can be correct if they
differ
• Little progress made by federal agencies in
providing acceptable responses
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Options Across Survey Lifecycle Design Stage
• Cross program development and testing of
questions
• Collaborative research on frames, data
collection and data processing methods
• Use of common definitions
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Options Across Survey Lifecycle Dissemination Stage
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Cross agency reviews and briefings
User education
Release restrictions
Clarity in presentation
Official guidance
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Goal
• Raise awareness of the issue
• Share opportunities and challenges associated
with various interventions
• Encourage actions to help data users better
navigate federal statistics
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Next Steps
• FCSM identified an exploratory subcommittee on
this issue
• Feedback in this session can guide this
subcommittee’s planning efforts
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