DEVELOPING A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF
TRUST BEHAVIOUR IN EMERGENCY
EVACUATION: A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY
IN CANADA AND INDONESIA
Hilya Arini
Tim Bedford, John Quigley, Calvin Burns
Outline
• Background
• Research Objectives
• Research Methods
If the fire alarm in this room suddenly rings,
what would you do?
a) Quickly run and find the emergency exit
without considering what other people do
b) Run and find the emergency exit in a
group after being asked by the leader in
this room to evacuate
c) Run and find the emergency exit after
your friends started to evacuate
d) Do nothing (Not evacuate)
Trust is “a psychological state comprising the intention to
accept vulnerability based upon positive expectations of the
intentions or behaviour of another” (Rousseau et al., 1998,
p. 395).
Natural Disaster in Indonesia
•
Indonesia sits along a volatile seismic strip called the ‘Ring of Fire’ in the
Pacific. Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur regularly, which can
present a potential threat of tsunamis.
Fig 1. Aceh Tsunami
Fig 2. Yogyakarta Earthquake
Fig 3. Merapi Eruption
Volcano Eruption in Indonesia
•
Mount Merapi has erupted
more than 80 times. This is
the biggest eruption since
1832.
•
In its 2010’s eruption,
according to data from
Indonesian National Board
for Disaster Management,
277 people died and 186
people injured.
Emergency Evacuation in Indonesia
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2006 eruption #1 2006 eruption #2
2010 eruption
The number of people who evacuate
Research Questions
1. To identify and distingusih the current role of
government and an influential nongovernment persons during emergency
evacuation in Canada and Indonesia.
2. To develop a conceptual model of trust
behaviour before building Agent Based
Modeling (ABM).
Agent-based Modeling (ABM)
• ABM is a computer
simulation technique
adopting bottom-up
approach to understand and
predict the system by
simulating individual
behaviour and
interactions, and capture
collective or emergent
behaviour resulted from
individual interaction in a
dynamic system (North and
Macal, 2007)
The Interface of ABM Simulation by Wagner & Agrawal (2014)
Agent-based Modeling (ABM)
• The general steps include:
1. model conceptualization/design,
2. implementation,
3. validation/verification, and
4. analysis of data.
Behavioural aspect in ABM
• According to North and Macal (2007), the behaviours
of agents are the heart of ABM. Properly specified and
valid agent behaviours as well as their interactions in
conceptual model are required to obtain a useful ABM
in emergency evacuation.
• The oversimplification of agents’ behaviour from reality
enables to result in questionable theory and an illconceived basis for the efficacy of model (Eden,
1989).
Problem Structuring Methods in ABM
• Modeling Agent System based on Institutional
Analysis (MAIA) framework by Ghorbani &
Schrauwen (2013)
• As PSM, this framework is believed that
enables to structure qualitative data through
an ethnographic process served to build
conceptual model as input to ABM.
Five interrelated structures in MAIA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The collective structure actors to define agents by capturing their
characteristics and decision criteria based on expert’s perception
and goals,
The constitutional structure to show agent’s roles and institutions,
The physical structure to reflect the non-social environment that
the agent are embedded in,
The operational structure to present an action arena with different
situations in which agents interact as they are affected by the
environment,
The evaluative structure to explain the concepts with the help of
which the modeller can indicate what patterns of interaction,
evaluation, and interested outcomes.
Ghorbani & Schrauwen (2013)
Research Methods
Develop interview guidance
Conduct pilot study
Conduct semi-structured interview
and workshop
Document result and building
conceptual model
Validate conceptual model by Focus
Group Discussion
The UML class diagram for the MAIA meta-model (Ghorbani et al. 2013)
Contributions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Provide theoretical contribution by focusing on behavioural theory prior to
develop decision analysis model in emergency evacuation.
Provide a methodological contribution through the application of problem
structuring approach to collect qualitative data for building a conceptual
model in ABM.
Provide an empirical contribution through an empirical interviews with
evacuation specialists and key people involved in managing evacuations
in Canada and Indonesia.
Provide a practical contribution through a conceptual model that can be
used as the basis to model people trust behaviour during emergency
evacuation with ABM. At the end, the ABM can help decision maker to
develop an effective communication strategy during emergency
evacuation situation in Canada and Indonesia.
Cultural Theory of Risk
The Four Groups in Cultural Theory
The Role of Trust in Emergency Evacuation
• Paton et al. (2010) stated that the emergency evacuation
decision can also be influenced by the different cultures
and countries.
• Stoyan, Niedzwiecki, Morgan, Hartlyn, & Espinal (2014) who
conducted a research about institutional trust added that
different countries can have different institutional trust level.
Citizens in countries with high institutional trust level will
be more participating on institutional engagement e.g.
emergency evacuation.