The probability of profitable
rooftop solar PV investments
Nelson Sommerfeldt, PhD Candidate at KTH Energy Technology
[email protected]
PV investment landscape
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Monte Carlo analysis
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Research questions
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
From the prosumer’s perspective
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What are my chances of a profitable PV investment?
What are the chances of losing my money?
How bad (or good) could it get?
From the researcher’s perspective
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How do policies influence probabilities?
Mode inputs for Monte Carlo
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Variable
Mode
Units
Total Installed Costs (incl. VAT)
Annual Generation
System Lifetime
Self-Consumption Rate
Real Discount Rate
16.25
900
30
60
3
SEK/Wp
kWh/kWp
Years
%
%
Variable
Value
Units
Annual Degradation
Inverter Lifetime
Replacement Inverter Price
Fixed O&M Costs
Green Cert. Price
0.3
15
2.0
50
0.16
%/year
Years
SEK/Wp
SEK/kWp-year
SEK/kWh
Fixed inputs
Distributed inputs
Mode
Introduction
Inputs
68%
95%
Results
95%
Installation Cost incl. VAT (SEK/Wp)
Lindahl J. (2015) National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in Sweden 2014. IEA-PVPS.
Available Here
20.25
19.75
19.25
18.75
18.25
17.75
17.25
16.75
16.25
15.75
15.25
14.75
14.25
13.75
13.25
12.75
12.25
Conclusions
0.6
Scenario B
B w/ Support
0.4
Scenario C
0.2
Scenario D
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
0.0
2025
Conclusions
Scenario A
2020
Results
0.8
2015
Inputs
1.0
2010
Introduction
Spot Price (SEK/kWh)
Price time series model
Profu (2014) Fördjupad scenarioanalys och kvantifering av rådets fyra scenarier. NEPP.
http://www.nepp.se/pdf/Profu_Slutrapport_NEPP-uppgift_2_under_2014.pdf
D w/ Support
Historic
0.4
Long Term Mean
0.2
GBM Price Series
2044
2040
2036
2032
2028
2024
2020
2016
2012
0.0
2008
Conclusions
0.6
2004
Results
0.8
2000
Inputs
1.0
1996
Introduction
Spot Price (SEK/kWh)
Price time series model
Policy scenarios
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Scenario
Capital Rebate
Green Certificates
Feed-In Bonus
Unsubsidized
None
None
None
Common Case
15%
Overproduction
5 Years
Best Case
20%
All production
15 Years
Probability of a successful PV investment
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Unsubsidized
8.60%
71.20%
Common Case
97.10%
Best Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
Probability of Profitability (3%)
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Probability of Principle Return (0%)
Simple payback distribution
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Unsubsidized
Common Case
Best Case
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Years
22
24
26
28
30
Internal rate of return distribution
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
Unsubsidized
Common Case
Best Case
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
PoP under various policies
Unsubsidized
Capital Rebate - 5%
Introduction
Capital Rebate - 10%
Inputs
Capital Rebate - 20%
Results
Conclusions
Capital Rebate - 15%
Green Cert. - Overprod.
Green Cert. - All
Feed-in Bonus - 5 Years
Feed-in Bonus - 10 Years
Feed-in Bonus - 15 Years
Common Case
Best Case
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Conclusions
Introduction
Inputs
Results
Conclusions
With current subsidies, well-positioned PV is likely to be profitable
Remains a long term investment
Capital rebate recommended as the primary support tool
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Strong driver of profitability
Least uncertainty (from an investment theory viewpoint)
Less disruption to electricity market signals (prices)
Relatively simple to phase out
Potential for future application into online based tools for informing
consumers and data collection on preferences
For more information
Project webpage – http://tinyurl.com/KTH-Solceller
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Full length report (in English)
Handbook for BRF (på Svenska)
Listing of journal and conference publications
Licentiate Seminar
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April 13 @ 10:00
KTH Energiteknik (Brinellvägen 68)
Breakfast seminar: Solar PV for BRF (hålls på Svenska and English)
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April 14 @ 8:00
KTH Open Lab (Valhallavägen 72)
Email to: [email protected]
Tack för mig
Photo: http://www.allbatteries.com.ph/2013/10/my-second-post/