Jakub M. Godzimirski
What Makes People Move?
Some remarks on Polish migration to Norway
Outline of the presentation
• Introduction
• Factors influencing migration choices
• Push and pull factors
• Opportunities and constraints
• Individual strategies
• Polish migration to Norway
• History
• Recent trends
• Specific features of Polish migration
• Future trends?
What Makes People Move?
2
Push and Pull Factors – An
Overview
• PUSH FACTORS
Conditions driving people to leave the source country
• PULL FACTORS
Conditions attracting people to the target country
What Makes People Move?
3
Push and Pull Factors: Some Examples
Push
Pull
Unemployment
Labour demand
Low wages
High wages
Deprivation/Poverty
Abundance/Wealth
Persecution
Protection/Security
Lack of Education
Education
Conflict
Stability
War
Peace
Lack of housing
Housing
Dictatorship
Democracy
Political
Lack of trust in
political institutions
Trust in political
institutions
Environmental
Disaster area
Normal situation
Economic
Social
What Makes People Move?
4
Push and Pull Factors – Dividing Lines
Political
Economic
Social
•Membership of the EU – acquis
+ 4 freedoms
•Lack of economic reforms
as an incentive to migrate;
•Haves and Not Haves?
•Gini Index – local wage gap
as incentive to migrate for
low skilled;
•The size of economic grey
zone – local semi-official
solution, no need to migrate;
•Small and medium-size
business as a local flexible
solution;
•FDI.
•Migration potential,
patterns;
•Unemployment – general,
various groups;
•Local formal and informal
security nets;
•Level of education;
•Language skills;
•Social mobility;
•Work experience abroad,
(neighbouring countries, the
EU);
•Social structure, family
structure;
•Ethnic networks abroad
–Insiders?
–Temporary Outsiders?
–Permanent Outsiders?
•Schengen
–need for visum/free travel/no
restrictions
• EEA
•Eurozone
–predictability
•Governance quality
•Democracy vs authoritarian
regimes
•Corruption, lack of trust in local
political class as incentives for
migration
•Potential conflicts?
What Makes People Move?
5
Income Gaps – Baltic Region 1996
What Makes People Move?
6
Average Wage Development in CEE and
Portugal 1992-2001 in Euro
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Czech Republic
1992
1993
1994
Hungary
1995
1996
Poland
1997
What Makes People Move?
1998
Portugal
1999
2000
2001
7
Unemployment in Poland – 2003 and
Historical Data
What Makes People Move?
8
Trust in Political Institutions
What Makes People Move?
9
Support for Government
Situation in Poland: Good or Bad?
Personal situation
Attitude towards European Integration
How is the post-1989 Change Viewed in
Poland?
Group and Individual Survival Strategies
Domestic
•Extra jobs
•Season work
•Qualifications upgrading
•Rent seeking: int’l
companies
•Self-privatisation
•Welfare marrying
•Crime - individual,
organised
•Prostitution
•Retirement and disability
pensions ‘buyers’
Domestic/Int’l
•Work shuttlers
•Shuttle trade
•Transborder
trade/smuggling
•Transborder petty crime
(juma-case)
•Transborder organised crime
(car thieves)
•Transborder prostitution
What Makes People Move?
International
•Permanent migration
•Season work
•Qualifications upgrading
•Rent seeking: int’l
companies
•Welfare marrying
•Crime individual, organised
(Narco couriers)
•Prostitution
•Trafficking in women,
migrants
•Welfare shopping
•Asylum seeking
•Asylum tourism
15
Migration from CEE (Poland) – Future Trends
(Okolski and Stola 1999)
 Labour migration to Western Europe, Germany in particular, will remain the
prevalent form of migration – main variable the economic situation in the
region.
 The policy of receiving countries– an important factor to determine the
extent of labour migration.
 A bigger proportion of lower educated and older persons.
 Areas of inferior economic development – the main source of migration.
 A new trend - migration of entrepreneurs and the self-employed.
 The main channel of legal, long-term and settlement immigration from
Poland to the EU will consist of family migrations - reunions of the families
of former emigrants (a downward trend), migrations resulting from
marriages with EU citizens (an upward trend).
 Migration of EU citizens to the region will increase but will remain
marginal.
What Makes People Move?
16
Migration Potential from Poland
(Orlowski)
Germany
France
Austria
Belgium
Netherlands
Sweden
Italy
The UK
Finland
Denmark
Spain
Irland
Luxemburg
Greece
Portugal
Total
No
Slow
change growth
410
276
134
77
123
61
106
48
104
48
102
46
93
52
91
50
90
38
85
42
45
14
44
5
34
15
12
0
0
0
1472
771
Rapid
growth
195
43
23
14
15
12
27
25
6
16
0
0
4
0
0
380
Orlowski 2001
What Makes People Move?
17
Polish migration to Norway
History
What Makes People Move?
18
The growth of Polish community 1980-90
What Makes People Move?
19
Net migration to Norway from Poland
1990-2010
What Makes People Move?
20
Born in Poland, living in Norway
1990-2011
What Makes People Move?
21
Poles in Norway
2003-2011
What Makes People Move?
22
Born in Poland or with parents born in Poland
1970-2011
What Makes People Move?
23
Polish community in Norway
Sub-groups
•
•
•
•
•
Post-war forced migrants – Poles sent as labour force to
Norway by the Nazi
Small scale migration of Polish specialists
Polish women marrying Norwegian men
Polish asylum-seekers and refugies 1980-1989
Polish labour migrants 1990-2011
What Makes People Move?
24
Acquisition of Norwegian citizenship by
Poles
Average per year
Polen
Per year
19772009
197780
198185
198690
199195
19962000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
4979
44
75
168
273
229
159
165
167
171
126
112
31
74
77
Share of Poles in Norway with Norwegian citizenship
2003
75,7
2004
75,6
2005
53,8
2006
41,3
2007
26,4
What Makes People Move?
2008
15,5
2009
12
2010
10,4 (9,7)
25