Mid-Atlantic Rail Operations
Study -- Benefit Assessment
Presented by:
Jack Lettiere, Commissioner
New Jersey Department of
Transportation
Presented to:
AASHTO Annual Meeting
September __, 2003
Mid-Atlantic Rail Operations Study
■ Cooperative effort:
• 5 states (Virginia, Maryland, Delaware,
Pennsylvania, and New Jersey)
• 3 railroads (Amtrak, Norfolk Southern, CSX)
• I-95 Corridor Coalition
■ Study objectives:
• Transportation conditions & needs
• Rail system improvements to reduce need for
highway investments
• Benefits of multi-state rail program
• Innovative partnership & funding strategies
A Capacity Crisis for Passenger &
Freight in the MAROPS Region
■ 20% of the nation's population
■ Congestion among worst in US
■ Opportunities to build new capacity limited
■ Heavy rail transit use, often over freight rail lines
■ Rail bridges & tunnels antiquated
■ Mainline capacity inadequate
■ At-grade crossing conflicts
■ Substantial growth projected
Mid-Atlantic Highways In 2020
Many at Level of Service "E" and "F"
Source: FHWA HPMS Data and Freight Analysis Framework 2020 Forecast
Rail Plays a Major Role in the
MAROPS Region
■ 250 M tons
into/out of, 100 M
tons through the
region in 1998
■ > 100 M
passengers per
year on Amtrak &
commuter lines
■ Rail could do
even more -- but ...
Rail Infrastructure is Antiquated
■ Major choke points limit trains &
speed
-- antiquated bridges & tunnels
-- lack of mainline capacity
-- mix of passenger & freight traffic
■ Weight & height limits hinder freight
movements locally
Howard St. Tunnel,
Baltimore
North-South Intermodal Rail
Service is Very Limited
Intermodal Rail
Flows, Year 2000
(Millions of Tons)
Source: Reebie TRANSEARCH and FHWA Freight Analysis Framework
The MAROPS Vision
■ Improve rail capacity and operations at the
system level:
• North-south corridors through all five states
• Shared benefits for passengers and freight
■ Focus on eliminating key chokepoints:
• Obsolete bridges & tunnels
• Mainline capacity, connections, &
height/weight restrictions
• Congested passenger stations, freight
terminals, & grade crossings
• Impediments to information sharing
The MAROPS Program
■ $6.2 B in improvements jointly developed by study
participants
■ $2.4 B near-term [ < 5 years]
-- Immediate construction and project planning
■ $1.9 B medium-term program [5 to 10 years]
-- Major projects
■ $1.9 B long-term program [10 to 20 years]
-- System growth & expansion
Near-Term Program -- North End
Near-Term Program -- South End
The MAROPS Benefits
■ Growth in passenger & freight rail traffic
■ Reduced:
• Highway congestion
• Public highway investment
• Emissions & fuel use
• Cost to highway users & economy
■ Improved:
• Connectivity for ports, shippers & customers
• Choices & redundancy for passengers
• Development for industrial areas
Rail Freight in MAROPS States
(North-South Direction, In/Out/Thru/Internal Traffic)
Tons
(million)
2001 Current
Ton-Miles
(million)
Loaded Units
(millions)
249
97,348
3.3
249
97,348
3.3
337
148,285
5.5
88
50,937
2.3
2025 Without MAROPS
(Rail Retains Current Volume,
Loses Market Share)
2025 With MAROPS
(Rail Retains Market Share, Diverts
10% Intermodal from Truck)
MAROPS Impact
(includes miles within and outside
of the MAROPS states)
Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TRANSEARCH DATA
Rail Freight in MAROPS States
(North-South Direction, In/Out/Thru/Internal Traffic)
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.1
Interm odal
Autorack
Unit Train
Loose Car
Changes in Rail Units With MAROPS
•
•
Class I's believe MAROPS will provide capacity to
accommodate this level of future growth
Full utilization of MAROPS capacity will depend on market
willingness to buy offered rail services
Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TRANSEARCH DATA
Truck Flows in MAROPS States
(North-South Direction, In/Out/Thru/Internal Traffic)
Tons
(million)
Ton-Miles
(million)
Loaded
Units
(millions)
Current
1,420
321,450
109
25,720
2025 Without MAROPS
2,439
603,822
190
48,041
2,351
553,815
184
44,456
(6)
(3,585)
(Trucks Gain Market Share)
2025 With MAROPS
(10% of IMX Diverted to Rail)
Highway
VMT
(millions)
MAROPS Impact
(About 67% of VMT Change is
Outside the MAROPS states)
(88)
Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TRANSEARCH DATA
(50,007)
User Benefits from MAROPS
Changes in Truck Flows
($ Millions, Cumulative Through 2025)
MAROPS Region
Shipper Costs *
$
(5,230)
Auto Delay
$
(316)
Truck Delay
$
(799)
Truck Operating
$
(10,543)
Other
$
(7,090)
Total
$
(18,748)
National
$
(15,847)
Highway User Costs **
* - shifting VMT from truck at $0.08 per ton-mile to rail at $0.045 per ton-mile
** - travel time and delay, operating, crash
Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS USING HIGHWAY ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS SYSTEM (HERS) MODEL
Economic Benefits from MAROPS
Changes in Truck Flows
($ Millions, Cumulative Through 2025)
Direct, Indirect & Induced Costs,
Change Throughout Economy from:
MAROPS
Region
Reduced Shipper Costs
$
(9,828)
Reduced Delay
$
(1,400)
National
$
(29,781)
Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS USING REGIONAL ECONOMIC MODELING INC. (REMI) MODEL
-
Highway Benefits from MAROPS
Changes in Truck Flows
($ Millions, Cumulative Through 2025)
MAROPS Region
With Elasticity
Highway Construction
No change
Highway Maintenance
$
(11)
Pollution
$
(207)
(Auto VMT "backfills"
available highway
capacity)
MAROPS Region
No Elasticity
(Analysis in progress)
(Auto VMT does not
"backfill" available
capacity)
Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS USING HIGHWAY ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS SYSTEM (HERS) MODEL
Funding the MAROPS Program
■ Railroads can fund some but not all:
• Amtrak future uncertain
• Investment need is near-term, but payback on
investment is long-term
• Railroad access to capital limited
■ Public/private partnership needed:
• Bridge the gap
• Facilitate public investments
• Innovative financing structures
Key Findings and Next Steps
■ A 20-year, $6 billion program to address railroad
system choke points
■ Potential for significant public benefits
■ Opportunity to continue innovative regional public
and private partnership:
• Funding strategies
• Technical studies
• Fast-track projects
• State and Coalition action