CLIP report from “Boilerland”
Bryan Pijanowski
Nov 14, 2003
Our Activities
• LTM and MABEL
• Linkages with Crop-Climate and Remote
Sensing
• Technical grease for climate modeling
• Role playing for MABEL
• Uncertainty
• Visualization (*)
Progress Last 3-4 Weeks
• Supercomputer
– Gained access and accounts are approved.
Should be accessible by Pijanowski, Pithadia
and Lofgren by Monday
– No cost for running or
– Need to develop a simple strategy to
benchmark the IBM SP2
Pithadia hiring
• Started 2 ½ weeks ago
• Took a 4 day course in using the NCAR
graphics software on the IBM2
(overwhelming)
• Set up the HEMA lab and set up three new
computers
HEMA Team Meeting last week
• Discussed how to proceed with using MABEL or
another agent based model
– Start with modeling the family and decision making
there
– Work with Jenny and David on Ivondo and LTK data
– Compare that model structure with existing MABEL to
see if we can modify MABEL in its current form or
need to start from scratch
– We have found a tool that will allow us to run MABEL
in batch mode that examines 1,000s of different input
parameter values (sweep of parameters) on model
outcomes. Tool “pipes” client to multiple workstations.
MABEL modeling
• Need to understand WHY (drivers and
process) as well as WHAT (emergent
patterns) in terms of land use change
• WHY questions focus on (1) units and (2)
how they vary over time
LTM
• Outlined four major new adjustments to LTM to
address
– Running model at many different scales simultaneously
– How to handle new variables that might be more qualitative
and fuzzy
– Ways to establish future scenarios that are not trend
extrapolation
– Potential impact of variability/noise on model input
• LTM feeds MABEL expectation utility function
WAR
WAR
FOOD
WAR
HIV/AIDS
LUCC Meeting in Mexico (Dec 1-4)
• Abstract submitted and accepted 2 days ago
(Dennis Ojima – member of our advisory
board)
• Need to develop presentation (15 minutes)
• Need to have brochures to pass out
• Web site should be up to date (is it?)
Data Exchange
•
•
•
•
Passing data is very clumsy
Need for easy posting/downloading
ftp does not work very well
Now have albedo values that correspond to
LAI and fPAR estimates
Uncertainty
• Identified two key books that can help frame
uncertainty analysis/assessment
– Shaping the next 100 years – RAND Pardee Center
– Error and Uncertainty in Spatial Data – Russ Congalton
et al.
• Starting to develop a white paper (due March 1,
2004) that outlines key points, terms and
concerns/rules
• Need to have a pilot study that looks at most
issues related to data and model error (LTM-LSP)
– How to use multiple data sources to improve IGBP data
source