The European voter in European
elections
Wouter van der Brug
University of Amsterdam
Main question
• What are the prospects for democratic
representation of voters in the European
parliament?
• Obstacles to representation:
• Cross-country differences in the
considerations of voters (specific to the EU)
• Supply and demand do not match (not
specific to European elections)
Stylized ‘facts’ on voting in EP-elections
• Voters treat them largely as second order
national elections, so they..
• vote on the basis of evaluations of national
parties
• are more likely to support radical parties
• are less likely to turn out
Stylized ‘facts’ about voting behaviour
in EP and in national elections
• Effects of socio-structural variables (social
class, religion, etcetera) are weak
• Strongest effects of ideological positions,
issues and strategic considerations
Analyses of European Elections Studies
data show that:
• the determinants of party choice are very
similar across the EU member states;
• so, people make electoral decisions based on
very similar considerations.
• The main difference is in the importance of
left/right.
Two ideological dimensions are
important to voters
• Socio-economic (state vs market, income
redistribution, welfare state arrangements)
• Socio-cultural (immigration, civic integration
of migrants, European unification)
• What do the party systems look like?
Fit between demand and supply (2010)
Fit between demand and supply (2010)
Conclusions (optimistic and pessimistic)
• Optimistic: In some ways one could argue that
there is one European electorate;
• Pessimistic: EP elections do not provide a
mechanism for voters to influence EU policies.