Find out which
team has 21.27%
chances to win
Bisnode Cup
2016...
...best attack strength
...best defence strength
BISNODE CUP 2016
How we did it
Bisnode Big Data Analytics Lab is using unstructured and scattered web data combined with analytical
models to predict the outcome of European Football Cup 2016. By analyzing the teams and players by
goal intensity, attack and defense strength, historical results, etc. prediction can be done about each match
ending, the results of the group stage, and the outcome of the playoff tree and finally who will be the winner.
Making predictions with statistics
footballcup2016.bisnode.com
Purpose of analysis was to estimate attack and defense strengths of each national team. Various rankings
and statistics on teams and clubs were used as proxies. Matches played in qualification round were used to
value and link proxies to attack and defense strenghts of teams (most likelihood estimation method was used).
Random sampling and simulations were used to avoid overfitting the data.
The main assumptions is that matches played in qualification round represent an unbiased sample of matches
in the final tournament (i.e. France performance in qualifying stage is biased since France played only
friendly matches in qualifying round). France is the only team who has the »home field advantage« in the final
tournament.
Based on our estimates of teams attack and defense strenghts more than 15.000 simulations of final
tournament were performed. Based on those simulations the following results are presented.
GROUP A
Attack
FIFA ranking
Defence
Expected group results
Albania
14 Switzerland
19 Romania
France
21 France
Romania
Switzerland
45 Albania
France
0-0
Romania 24%
Albania
0-1
Switzerland 16%
Romania
0-0
Switzerland 23%
France
1-0
Albania 17%
Romania
0-0
Albania 26%
Switzerland
1-1
France 13%
Expected group table
Pts
GG
GR
GD
Switzerland
5
4
2
2
France
5
4
2
2
Romania
4
2
2
0
Albania
2
2
4
-2
*predicted match results and group table are not aligned because of expected deviation effect - for example: if there is 25% of
probability for the highest possible match result, the probability for any other different result is still 75%
France
Switzerland
Albania
Romania
Group A
Albania without big
chances in this group
The most likely candidates for the top two
places in Group A are Switzerland and
France, with Switzerland being slightly
more favoured for first place. Third place
will most probably go to Romania, but
it is most likely that Romania will not be
among the four best third-ranked teams.
Albania is the outsider with odds in favour
of it taking last place.
GROUP B
Attack
FIFA ranking
Defence
Expected group results
England
10 England
Russia
24 Wales
27 Russia
Slovakia
Wales
0-0
Slovakia 18%
England
1-0
Russia 19%
Russia
1-0
Slovakia 13%
England
1-0
Wales 25%
Russia
0-0
Wales 23%
Slovakia
0-2
England 16%
Expected group table
32 Slovakia
Wales
Pts
GG
GR
GD
England
6
5
1
4
Russia
4
3
3
0
Wales
3
2
3
-1
Slovakia
2
2
5
-3
*predicted match results and group table are not aligned because of expected deviation effect - for example: if there is 25% of
probability for the highest possible match result, the probability for any other different result is still 75%
Wales
England
Slovakia
Russia
Group B
England is the biggest
favourite in Group B
England is Group B’s clear favourite
for winning first place, while out of the
remaining three teams Russia has the best
chances of taking second place. When
it comes to Wales and Slovakia, Wales
is ahead in third-place forecasts, while
Slovakia is most likely to be the bottomplaced team in this group.
GROUP C
Attack
FIFA ranking
Defence
Expected group results
5
Germany
Germany
Northern Ireland
22 Ukraine
26 N. Ireland
27 Poland
Poland
Ukraine
Poland
2-1
N. Ireland
Germany
1-0
Ukraine 23%
Ukraine
0-0
N. Ireland 20%
Germany
2-1
N. Ireland
0-2
Germany 13%
Ukraine
1-1
Poland 14%
Poland
9%
9%
Expected group table
Pts
GG
GR
GD
Germany
7
6
2
4
Poland
4
4
5
-1
Ukraine
4
2
3
-1
Northern Ireland
3
3
6
-3
*predicted match results and group table are not aligned because of expected deviation effect - for example: if there is 25% of
probability for the highest possible match result, the probability for any other different result is still 75%
Northern
Ireland
Germany
Poland
Ukraine
Group C
Big fight between
Poland and the Ukraine
for second place
Germany is by far the biggest favourite for
winning first place in Group C and there
should be little doubt that they will move to
the next round of the competition. On the
other hand, Poland and the Ukraine have
almost equal chances of taking second
place, with Poland just slightly ahead. Odds
are Northern Ireland will take last place.
GROUP D
Attack
FIFA ranking
Defence
Expected group results
6
Spain
Croatia
13 Turkey
Czech Republic
23 Croatia
29 Czech Rep.
Spain
Turkey
Turkey
0-0
Croatia 21%
Spain
2-0
Czech Rep. 13%
Czech Rep.
0-1
Croatia 11%
Spain
1-0
Turkey 21%
Croatia
0-0
Spain 24%
Czech Rep.
1-2
Turkey 10%
Expected group table
Pts
GG
GR
GD
Spain
6
5
2
3
Croatia
4
3
3
0
Turkey
4
3
3
0
Czech Republic
2
3
7
-4
*predicted match results and group table are not aligned because of expected deviation effect - for example: if there is 25% of
probability for the highest possible match result, the probability for any other different result is still 75%
Spain
Czech
Republic
Croatia
Turkey
Group D
Spain is the favourite,
while the Czech Republic
is the outsider
Defending champions Spain have the best
chances of winning first place in this group.
Croatia and Turkey have equal chances in the
fight for second place, with estimates that
both teams will move on to the quarterfinals.
On the other hand, the Czech Republic
has the least chance of advancing in the
competition and avoiding taking last place.
GROUP E
Attack
FIFA ranking
2
Belgium
Expected group results
Belgium
15 Italy
Ireland
31 Ireland
Defence
Italy
36 Sweden
Sweden
Ireland
1-0
Sweden 15%
Belgium
1-0
Italy 18%
Italy
1-0
Sweden 12%
Belgium
1-0
Ireland 23%
Italy
1-0
Ireland 18%
Sweden
0-1
Belgium 16%
Expected group table
Pts
GG
GR
GD
Belgium
6
5
2
3
Italy
4
3
3
0
Ireland
3
2
3
-1
Sweden
3
2
5
-3
*predicted match results and group table are not aligned because of expected deviation effect - for example: if there is 25% of
probability for the highest possible match result, the probability for any other different result is still 75%
Ireland
Belgium
Italy
Sweden
Group E
Belgium is the strongest
team, Ireland and Sweden
in battle for third place
Belgium is the biggest favourite in this group.
Italy has good odds for advancing as the
second-ranked team, while Ireland is given
slightly better odds against Sweden in the fight
for third place. As one of the four best thirdranked teams, Ireland should move to the
quarterfinals, making Sweden the only team in
this group to catch the early flight home.
GROUP F
Attack
FIFA ranking
Defence
Expected group results
8
Portugal
Austria
11 Austria
18 Hungary
Hungary
Iceland
35 Iceland
Portugal
Austria
1-0
Hungary 18%
Portugal
0-0
Iceland 21%
Iceland
0-0
Hungary 21%
Portugal
0-1
Austria 17%
Hungary
0-1
Portugal 19%
Iceland
0-1
Austria 20%
Expected group table
Pts
GG
GR
GD
Austria
6
4
2
2
Portugal
4
3
2
1
Iceland
3
2
3
-1
Hungary
3
2
4
-2
*predicted match results and group table are not aligned because of expected deviation effect - for example: if there is 25% of
probability for the highest possible match result, the probability for any other different result is still 75%
Iceland
Portugal
Austria
Hungary
Group F
Austria has the best
chances for first place
Austria is considered this group’s favourite,
while analysis shows that Portugal has the
best chances of winning second place.
Iceland and Hungary have vastly smaller
chances of advancing, with Iceland having
a slight advantage. However, Iceland is
considered one of the two third-ranked teams
that will not continue the competition.
Attack strength
all teams
0.49 Ukraine
0.61 Wales
0.62 Hungary
0.74 Ireland
0.92 Portugal
0.96 Slovakia
1.05 Turkey
1.15 Russia
1.24 Austria
1.26 Switzerland
1,.31 Spain
1.38 England
1.46 Germany
1.38 Belgium
1.36 Poland
1.29 Czech Republic
1.15 Italy
1.07 France
1.04 Sweden
0.93 Croatia
0.88 Northern Ireland
0.66 Albania
0.61 Iceland
0.55 Romania
According to the analysis, Germany has the
greatest offence potential, followed by England
and Belgium, Poland and Spain. On the other
hand, the Ukraine, Romania, Wales, Iceland and
Hungary have the weakest offence potential.
The host France takes 11th place according to
offence potential.
Defence strenght
Poland 0.37
Slovakia 0.57
Sweden 0.66
France 0.94
Italy 1.02
Portugal 1.04
Russia 1.08
Austria 1.13
Germany 1.22
Croatia 1.30
Belgium 1.53
Spain 1.65
England 1.54
Romania 1.32
Ukraine 1.24
Wales 1.22
Ireland 1.09
Turkey 1.07
Spain has the greatest defence potential, followed
by England, Belgium, Romania and Croatia. On
the opposite end, the Czech Republic takes last
place, with Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and
Albania ahead. The host France takes 16th place
according to defence potential.
Switzerland 1.03
Iceland 0.94
Hungary 0.68
Albania 0.66
Northern Ireland 0.52
Czech Republic 0.26
all teams
Probabilities
Even Albania could win the group (6.2%)
According to probability calculations for each team to
reach a certain phase of the competition, the defending
champions Spain are most likely to win the tournament. The
next favourite in line is England, followed by Belgium and
Germany with probability scores of over 10%. Least likely to
win the tournament is the Czech Republic, with a further ten
teams having a less than 1% chance of winning.
Albania
Slovakia
Iceland
Poland
Ireland
Romania
Turkey
Croatia
France
Austria
Belgium
Spain
England
Germany
Switzerland
Russia
Italy
Portugal
Germany’s chances
of winning the
tournament (23.6%)
are lower than those
of Spain, England
and Belgium
Wales
Ukraine
Sweden
Wales has a 0.84%
chance of winning the
tournament
Northern Ireland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Group winner
1/8
1/4
1/2
Finale
Champion
Forecast
Group stage
1/8
1/4
1/2
Final
Poland - France
A
B
C
D
E
F
Switzerland
England
Germany
Spain
Belgium
Austria
France
Russia
Poland
Croatia
Italy
Portugal
Romania
Wales
Ukraine
Turkey
Ireland
Iceland
Albania
Slovakia
Northern Ireland
Czech Republic
Sweden
Hungary
England - Turkey
France - Spain
Spain - Iceland
Switzerland - Ukraine
England - Austria
Germany - Romania
Austria - Italy
Germany - Belgium
Spain - England
Belgium - Switzerland
Spain - Belgium
Belgium - Croatia
Russia - Portugal
Switzerland - Russia
According to the Bisnode forecast for the upcoming Euro,
Spain will defend their title of European champions by beating
Belgium in the final match, played in Paris. England and
Switzerland will be the semi-finalists, while the host France
will be eliminated in the quarterfinals along with Austria,
Germany and Russia.
Spain
Bisnode Cup Champion