Wo r k i n g Pa p e r S e r i e s
N o 1 2 6 5 / n ov e m b e r 2 0 1 0
how much does
the public know
about the ECB’S
monetary policy?
Evidence from a
survey of dutch
households
by Carin van der Cruijsen,
David-Jan Jansen and
Jakob de Haan
WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S
N O 126 5 / N OV E M B E R 2010
HOW MUCH DOES THE PUBLIC
KNOW ABOUT THE ECB’S
MONETARY POLICY?
EVIDENCE FROM A SURVEY
OF DUTCH HOUSEHOLDS 1
by Carin van der Cruijsen,2 David-Jan Jansen 3
and Jakob de Haan 4
NOTE: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing
the views of the European Central Bank (ECB).
The views expressed are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
In 2010 all ECB
publications
feature a motif
taken from the
€500 banknote.
This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.ecb.europa.
eu or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library
at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1701609.
1 We thank Andreas Busch, Maria Demertzis, Michael Ehrmann, Ivan Jaccard, Joris Knoben, Bartosz Maćkowiak, Maarten van Rooij, Jirka Slačálek
and Federica Teppa for useful discussions. We also received many insightful comments from participants at the 2010 ASSA meetings in Atlanta
and seminars at the European Central Bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank for International Settlements, Göttingen University,
the University of Salamanca and De Nederlandsche Bank. Corrie Vis (CentERData) was extremely helpful in arranging the survey.
Jansen thanks to Monetary Policy Research Division of the European Central Bank for its generous hospitality.
Any errors or omissions are our own responsibility. This paper presents the authors’ personal opinions.
Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily coincide with those of de Nederlandsche Bank,
the European Central Bank or the Eurosystem.
2 De Nederlandsche Bank; e-mail: [email protected]
3 De Nederlandsche Bank, e-mail: [email protected]
4 Corresponding author: De Nederlandsche Bank,
University of Groningen and CESifo;
e-mail: [email protected]
or [email protected]
© European Central Bank, 2010
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ISSN 1725-2806 (online)
CONTENTS
Abstract
4
Non-technical summary
5
1 Introduction
7
2 A framework for the level of understanding
10
3 The survey
12
4 An overview of the survey results
15
5 What determines knowledge
about the ECB’s objectives?
18
6 Is the level of knowledge related
to inflation expectations?
22
7 Conclusions and policy implications
26
References
28
Figures and tables
31
Appendices
42
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
3
Abstract Does the general public know what central banks do? Is this kind of knowledge relevant? Using a survey of Dutch households, we investigate these questions for the case of the European Central Bank (ECB). Our findings suggest that knowledge on the ECB’s objectives is far from perfect. Both a weak desire to be informed and unawareness of insufficient knowledge are barriers for improving the public's understanding of monetary policy. However, our results also show that more intensive use of information improves understanding, suggesting that the media channel may play an important and constructive role in building knowledge. Finally, we find that knowledge on monetary policy objectives contributes to an individual’s ability to form realistic inflation expectations. JEL­codes: D12, D84, E52, E58 Keywords: monetary policy, knowledge, transparency, financial literacy, inflation expectations, ECB 4
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
Non‐technical summary During the last two decades, many central banks have become remarkably more transparent, placing greater weight on their communications. Transparency requires that central banks communicate with the outside world. So far, the academic literature has mostly equated the outside world with financial market participants. In contrast, we know little about the general public's knowledge about monetary policy, how information on central banks reaches the public, and how this information contributes to knowledge. More importantly, we have no clear understanding of the extent to which knowledge of monetary policy is relevant for the public’s decision‐making. This paper contributes to the literature by charting what the general public knows about the main objective of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). To study the general public’s knowledge, we conducted a survey of Dutch households in April 2009. We presented participants with eleven statements. Four of these statements were based on the ECB’s main objective, while the remaining seven were false statements drafted by us. We asked respondents to answer whether they thought a particular statement was an accurate description of the main ECB policy objective or not. The main findings are as follows. First, knowledge about the ECB’s main policy objective is far from perfect. The average number of correct answers to our eleven statements is less than five. There are interesting differences along demographic lines. Male respondents with a strong self‐interest, a clear ideology, and a higher social‐economic status are more likely to have correct knowledge, while elderly respondents and respondents who have a partner are more likely to have less knowledge about the ECB's monetary policy. ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
5
Š‡ ’ƒ’‡” ƒŽ•‘ ˆ‹†• –Šƒ– ƒ„‘—– ƒ “—ƒ”–‡” ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ‡š’”‡•• Ž‹––Ž‡
‹–‡”‡•– ‹ „‡‹‰ ‹ˆ‘”‡† ƒ„‘—– ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ  ˆƒ…–ǡ ˆ‡™ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• •‡‡
…Ž‡ƒ” ”‡ƒ•‘• ™Š› ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ™‘—Ž† ƒˆˆ‡…– –Š‡ ’‡”•‘ƒŽŽ›Ǥ ƒ–Š‡”ǡ
‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ‹• …‘•‹†‡”‡† ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‡…‘‘› ƒ• ƒ ™Š‘Ž‡Ǥ ‡…‘†ǡ
‡˜‡•—”˜‡›’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•™Š‘„‡Ž‹‡˜‡–Š‡›Šƒ˜‡ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡ˆƒ‹Ž–‘ˆ—ŽŽ›
—†‡”•–ƒ†–Š‡ǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǤŠ‡•‡–™‘ˆ‹†‹‰•Šƒ˜‡‹’‘”–ƒ–‹’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ
Ž–Š‘—‰Š …‡–”ƒŽ „ƒ …‘—‹…ƒ–‹‘ …ƒ „‡ —•‡† ƒ• ƒ –‘‘Ž –‘ ‹’”‘˜‡
‘™Ž‡†‰‡ǡ‹–™‹ŽŽ„‡†‹ˆˆ‹…—Ž––‘”‡ƒ…Š’‡‘’Ž‡™Š‘•‡‡‘…Ž‡ƒ””‡ƒ•‘•–‘Ž‹•–‡Ǥ
‘‘˜‡”…‘‡–Š‹•‹••—‡ǡ‘‡™‘—Ž†‡‡†–‘’ƒ›…Ž‘•‡ƒ––‡–‹‘–‘…‘˜‹…‹‰–Š‡
’—„Ž‹…‘ˆ–Š‡”‡Ž‡˜ƒ…‡‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—–‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
‡––‡”‹•‹‰Š–‹–‘–Š‡”‡Ž‡˜ƒ…‡‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—–‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›‹•–Š‡ˆ‹ƒŽ
…‘–”‹„—–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ’‡”ǤŠ‡’ƒ’‡”ˆ‹†••–”‘‰‡˜‹†‡…‡–Šƒ–„‡––‡”‘™Ž‡†‰‡
ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ƒ‹ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‘ˆ ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ‹• ’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž› ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ ƒ
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǯ•ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‡”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ•–Š‡ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘
ƒ‡ ƒ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ƒ••‡••‡– ‘ˆ ˆ—–—”‡ ’”‹…‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–• ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆ‘”
ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž† ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ †‡…‹•‹‘Ǧƒ‹‰ǡ –Š‹• ˆ‹†‹‰ •—‰‰‡•–• –Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡
‹’‘”–ƒ– ”‡–—”• –‘ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ„‘—– ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•Ǥ —–—”‡
”‡•‡ƒ”…Š ƒ› †‘ ™‡ŽŽ ‹ ˆ—”–Š‡” ‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‹‰ –Š‹• …ƒ—•ƒŽ‹–› •—‰‰‡•–‡† „› ‘—”
ˆ‹†‹‰•Ǥ
6
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
1. Introduction During the last two decades, many central banks have become remarkably more transparent, placing greater weight on their communications (Blinder, Ehrmann, Fratzscher, De Haan and Jansen, 2008). Nowadays, it is widely held that independent central banks should be transparent and accountable, which means that they have a duty to publicly explain their actions and the reasoning that underlies those actions. In addition, transparency may enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy‐making. According to the International Monetary Fund (2000), by ‘making the objectives of monetary policy public, the central bank enhances the public's understanding of what it is seeking to achieve, and provides a context for articulating its own policy choices, thereby contributing to the effectiveness of monetary policy.’ 5 Transparency requires that central banks communicate with the outside world. So far, the academic literature has mostly equated the outside world with financial market participants. This was already criticised by Blinder et al. (2008, p. 941), who pointed out that ‘It may be time to pay some attention to communication with the general public.’ 6 In fact, we know virtually nothing about the general public's knowledge about monetary policy, how information on central banks reaches the public, and how this information contributes to knowledge. 7 More importantly, we have no clear understanding whether knowledge of monetary policy is relevant for the public’s decision‐
making. Our paper contributes to the literature by charting what the general public knows about the objectives of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has specified its objective as follows: ‘The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability. 5 Recent evidence suggests that central bank transparency enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy, although not all evidence points in the same direction (Van der Cruijsen and Eijffinger, 2010b). 6 Similarly, Berger, Ehrmann and Fratzscher (2006, p. 29) point out that ‘we have limited ourselves to an analysis of the transmission of communication, leaving open the question how communication is actually received by the final addressee, the general public. We leave this up to future research.’ 7 One related paper on these issues is Van der Cruijsen and Eijffinger (2010a). However, they only measure knowledge about the European Central Bank’s disclosure practices. ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
7
The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium termǤǯǤ ͺ ‘ •–—†› –Š‡
‰‡‡”ƒŽ ’—„Ž‹…ǯ• ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ǡ ™‡ …‘†—…–‡† ƒ •—”˜‡› ‘ˆ —–…Š Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ‹ ’”‹Ž ʹͲͲͻǤ ‡
’”‡•‡–‡†’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•™‹–Š‡Ž‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•ƒ„‘—––Š‡ǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡Ǥ‘—”‘ˆ–Š‡•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•
™‡”‡ „ƒ•‡† ‘ –Š‡ ǯ• •’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‹–• ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ –Š‡ ”‡ƒ‹‹‰ •‡˜‡ ™‡”‡ ˆƒŽ•‡
•–ƒ–‡‡–• †”ƒˆ–‡† „› —•Ǥ ‡ ƒ•‡† ”‡•’‘†‡–• –‘ ƒ•™‡” ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡› –Š‘—‰Š– ƒ ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”
•–ƒ–‡‡–™ƒ•–”—‡‘”ˆƒŽ•‡Ǥ
ƒ•‡†‘‘—”•—”˜‡›ǡ™‡ƒ††”‡••–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰–Š”‡‡“—‡•–‹‘•Ǥ‹”•–ǡ™Šƒ–†‘‡•–Š‡‰‡‡”ƒŽ
’—„Ž‹… ‘™ ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ǫ ‡…‘†ǡ Š‘™ †‘‡• –Š‡ ‰‡‡”ƒŽ ’—„Ž‹… ‘„–ƒ‹ ‹–•
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǫ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ–‘™Šƒ–‡š–‡–‹•–Š‡’—„Ž‹…ǯ•‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘–Š‡‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•‘ˆ‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›
”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–ǫ‘ƒ•™‡”–Š‹•–Š‹”†“—‡•–‹‘ǡ™‡ˆ‘…—•‘–Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’„‡–™‡‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ†–Š‡
”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ Š‡ ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‘ ƒ‡ ƒ ”‡ƒ•‘ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ••‡••‡– ‘ˆ ˆ—–—”‡ ’”‹…‡
†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–• ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆ‘” ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž† ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ †‡…‹•‹‘Ǧƒ‹‰ ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ ƒ–‘ƒǡ ͳͻ͹ͷǢ
—•–‡”ǡͳͻͺͳǢ¡”‡”›†ƒ†ƒŠŽ—†ǡͳͻͺͷȌǤŠ‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ™‡ƒ••‡••™Š‡–Š‡”‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—–
‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•ƒˆˆ‡…–•–Š‡ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‡”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ
‘‘”‰ƒ‹•‡‘—”ƒƒŽ›•‹•ǡ™‡—•‡–Š‡ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”’”‘’‘•‡†„›Ž‹†‡”ƒ†”—‡‰‡”ȋʹͲͲͶȌ‹
–Š‡‹”•–—†›‘–Š‡†‡–‡”‹ƒ–•‘ˆ‘’‹‹‘•‘ǤǤ‡…‘‘‹…’‘Ž‹…›ǤŠ‡›ˆ‹†–Šƒ–‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›‹•–Š‡
‘•– …‘•‹•–‡–Ž› ‹’‘”–ƒ– †‡–‡”‹ƒ– ‘ˆ ‘’‹‹‘ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ ‡ƒ•—”‡• ‘ˆ •‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•– ƒ”‡ Ž‡ƒ•–
‹’‘”–ƒ–Ǥ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—––Š‡‡…‘‘›‹•‹’‘”–ƒ––‘‡š’Žƒ‹’‘•‹–‹‘•‘•‘‡’‘Ž‹…›‹••—‡•ǡ
„—–‘–ƒŽŽǤ…‘–”ƒ•––‘Ž‹†‡”ƒ†”—‡‰‡”ǡ™‡ˆ‘…—•‘‘™Ž‡†‰‡”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒ‘’‹‹‘•Ǥ ͻ
—”ƒ‹ˆ‹†‹‰•ƒ”‡ƒ•ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™•Ǥ‹”•–ǡ™‡ˆ‹†–Šƒ––Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—––Š‡
ǯ• ’‘Ž‹…› ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡• ‹• ˆƒ” ˆ”‘ ’‡”ˆ‡…–Ǥ Š‡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”• –‘ ‘—” ‡Ž‡˜‡
•–ƒ–‡‡–•‹•Ž‡••–Šƒˆ‹˜‡ǤŠ‡”‡ƒ”‡‹–‡”‡•–‹‰†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•ƒŽ‘‰†‡‘‰”ƒ’Š‹…Ž‹‡•Ǥ‡ˆ‹†–Šƒ–
ƒŽ‡”‡•’‘†‡–•™‹–Š•–”‘‰•‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•–ǡƒ…Ž‡ƒ”‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›ǡƒ†ƒŠ‹‰Š•‘…‹ƒŽ•–ƒ–—•ƒ”‡‘”‡Ž‹‡Ž›
ͺ‘—”…‡ǣŠ––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ‡…„Ǥ‹–Ȁ‘’‘ȀŠ–ŽȀ‹†‡šǤ‡ǤŠ–ŽǤŽƒ•–ƒ……‡••‡†‘͹—‡ʹͲͳͲǤ
ͻ—”™‘”†‹ˆˆ‡”•ˆ”‘–Š‡•–ƒ†ƒ”†—”‘„ƒ”‘‡–‡”•—”˜‡›…ƒ””‹‡†‘—–„›–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒ‘‹••‹‘™Š‹…Š
ƒŽ•‘ˆ‘…—•‡•‘‘’‹‹‘•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ•‹…‡ʹͲͲ͹—”‘„ƒ”‘‡–‡”Šƒ•…‘†—…–‡†•’‡…‹ƒŽ•—”˜‡›•”‡‰ƒ”†‹‰–Š‡
Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ˆ ‡…‘‘‹… ‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•Ǥ  ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ǡ —”‘’‡ƒ•ƒ”‡ —ƒ™ƒ”‡‘ˆ ‡…‘‘‹…‰”‘™–Š ”ƒ–‡•ǡ
‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ”ƒ–‡• ƒ† —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡•ǡ „—– †‘ –Š‹ –Š‡•‡ ˆ‹‰—”‡• ƒ”‡ ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆ‘” ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ †‡…‹•‹‘Ǧ
ƒ‹‰ȋ—”‘’‡ƒ‘‹••‹‘ǡʹͲͳͲȌǤ
8
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Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
–‘ Šƒ˜‡ …‘””‡…– ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ ‡Ž†‡”Ž› ”‡•’‘†‡–• ƒ† ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™Š‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ ’ƒ”–‡” ƒ”‡
‘”‡Ž‹‡Ž›–‘Šƒ˜‡Ž‡••‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—––Š‡̵•‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
‡…‘†ǡ™‡‹†‡–‹ˆ›–™‘„ƒ””‹‡”•ˆ‘”‹’”‘˜‹‰–Š‡’—„Ž‹…ǯ•‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ‡•’‘†‡–•™‹–Šƒ
•–”‘‰ †‡•‹”‡ –‘ „‡ ‹ˆ‘”‡† ƒ…“—‹”‡ ‘”‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ –Š‡ ǯ• ’‘Ž‹…‹‡•Ǥ • ƒ ”‡•—Ž–ǡ –Š‡‹”
‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‹• „‡––‡” –Šƒ –Š‡ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ˆ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™‹–Š ƒ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› ™‡ƒ †‡•‹”‡ –‘ „‡
‹ˆ‘”‡†ǤŽ•‘ǡ™‡ˆ‹†–Šƒ–”‡•’‘†‡–•‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ›…Žƒ‹–‘Šƒ˜‡—…Š„‡––‡”‘™Ž‡†‰‡–Šƒ–Š‡›
ƒ…–—ƒŽŽ›Šƒ˜‡Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–—”‹‰–‘•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǡ‘—””‡•—Ž–•ƒŽ•‘•—‰‰‡•––Šƒ–‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•
™Š‘ —•‡ –Š‡ ‡†‹ƒ ‘”‡ ‹–‡•‹˜‡Ž› –‘ ‘„–ƒ‹ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ Šƒ˜‡ „‡––‡” ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ ‘‡–ƒ”›
’‘Ž‹…›ǤŠ‹••—‰‰‡•–•–Šƒ––Š‡‡†‹ƒ…Šƒ‡Žƒ›„‡—•‡ˆ—Ž–‘‹’”‘˜‡–Š‡’—„Ž‹…ǯ•‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ–
™‹ŽŽ„‡ƒ…ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–‘”‡ƒ…Š‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™Š‘Šƒ˜‡‘†‡•‹”‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†Ǥ
‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ –‘ ™Šƒ– ‡š–‡– ‹• ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ„‘—– ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–ǫ ‡ ˆ‹† •–”‘‰
‡˜‹†‡…‡ –Šƒ– „‡––‡” ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡• ‘ˆ ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ‹• ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ ƒ
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǯ• ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‘ ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‡ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ •‹‰ ’”‘„‹– ”‡‰”‡••‹‘•ǡ ™‡ ˆ‹†
–Šƒ–‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™Š‘ƒ•™‡”‘”‡“—‡•–‹‘•‘‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•…‘””‡…–Ž›Šƒ˜‡ƒŠ‹‰Š‡”’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›
‘ˆŠƒ˜‹‰”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǤŠ‹••—‰‰‡•–•–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡‹’‘”–ƒ–”‡–—”•–‘–Š‹•‹†‘ˆ
‘™Ž‡†‰‡ǡ ƒ• –Š‡ ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‘ ƒ‡ ƒ ”‡ƒ•‘ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ••‡••‡– ‘ˆ ˆ—–—”‡ ’”‹…‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–• ‹•
‹’‘”–ƒ–ˆ‘”ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ†‡…‹•‹‘Ǧƒ‹‰Ǥ ͳͲ
Š‡”‡ƒ‹†‡”‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ’‡”‹••–”—…–—”‡†ƒ•ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™•Ǥ‡…–‹‘ʹ†‡•…”‹„‡•–Š‡ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”ˆ‘”
‘—” ƒƒŽ›•‹•ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ •‡…–‹‘ ͵ †‡•…”‹„‡• –Š‡ •—”˜‡›ǯ• •‡–—’Ǥ ‡…–‹‘ Ͷ ‰‹˜‡• ƒ ‘˜‡”˜‹‡™ ‘ˆ –Š‡
•—”˜‡›ǯ• ƒ‹ ‘—–…‘‡•Ǥ ‡…–‹‘ ͷ ‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‡• –Š‡ †‡–‡”‹ƒ–• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–•̵ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡
ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ƒ‹ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ •‡…–‹‘ ͸ ‡šƒ‹‡• ™Š‡–Š‡” ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ ‘‡–ƒ”›
’‘Ž‹…› Š‡Ž’• ‹ ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‹‰ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ Š‡ ˆ‹ƒŽ •‡…–‹‘ ‘ˆˆ‡”• …‘…Ž—†‹‰
…‘‡–•ƒ††‹•…—••‡•–Š‡’‘Ž‹…›‹’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘•‘ˆ‘—”ˆ‹†‹‰•Ǥ
ͳͲ Š‡ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ Šƒ• ƒŽ•‘ „‡‡ ‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡† ‹ ”‡Žƒ–‡† ™‘” ‘ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ Ž‹–‡”ƒ…›Ǥ ‘”
‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ —•ƒ”†‹ ƒ† ‹–…Š‡ŽŽ ȋʹͲͲ͹Ȍ ƒ† ƒ ‘‘‹Œǡ —•ƒ”†‹ ƒ† Ž‡••‹‡ ȋʹͲͲͻȌ ˆ‹† –Šƒ– ‘”‡
‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„Ž‡’‡‘’Ž‡ƒ”‡ƒŽ•‘‘”‡Ž‹‡Ž›–‘’Žƒˆ‘””‡–‹”‡‡–Ǥ
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Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
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2. A framework for the level of understanding We relate the level of understanding of monetary policy to a number of factors. First, the expected benefits from obtaining information are important. If someone sees no benefits from being informed on monetary policy, she will have little incentive to obtain the relevant information, so that her level of understanding of central bank policies will be low. If someone does have an interest, the type of sources may become relevant. Most people do not receive their information on monetary policy directly from the central bank but via ‘intermediaries’, like television, radio, and newspapers. The role of these intermediaries in affecting the public's understanding of central bank policies has been largely ignored in the literature. Our survey measures how and where respondents get their information on the ECB. Third, the quantity of information received through the various sources may play a role in someone's understanding of monetary policy‐making. Receiving more information may simply lead to a more thorough understanding of what central banks are doing. Finally, various other variables, such as the level of education, the type of job, or the level of income may also be relevant. The various factors mentioned above are, in all likelihood, interrelated. To formalize the interdependencies between understanding (U), desire to be informed (D), sources of information (S), and quantity of information (Q), we use the framework as proposed by Blinder and Krueger (2004). We assume that the desire of person i to be informed is a function of self‐interest (SI), ideology (ID), education (ED), and a vector X that contains control variables like sex and age. (1) Di = f1(SIi, IDi, EDi, Xi) + e1,i As mentioned, one of the crucial reasons that someone may want to be informed about monetary policy is self‐interest. Self‐interest may arise for several reasons. First, the real value of someone’s income or financial assets may be affected by inflation. Alternatively, an individual may have an interest, because her line of work is closely influenced by monetary policy. In the empirical 10
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Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
•‡…–‹‘•ǡ™‡™‹ŽŽ—•‡˜ƒ”‹‘—•’”‘š‹‡•ˆ‘”•‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•–ǡ–Š‡‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–‘ˆ™Š‹…Š™‹ŽŽ„‡‹…‘‡Ǥ
‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰Ž‹†‡”ƒ†”—‡‰‡”ȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ™‡ˆ—”–Š‡”’‘•‹––Šƒ–ǣ
(2)Si=f2(Di,SIi,IDi,EDi,Xi)+e2,i
ƒ†
(3)Qi=f3(Di,SIi,IDi,EDi,Xi)+e3,i
Š‡•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ†–Š‡“—ƒ–‹–› ‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘†‡’‡†‘–Š‡†‡•‹”‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†ǡ
•‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•–ǡ ‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›ǡ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡ ƒ† ˜ƒ”‹‘—• …‘–”‘Ž ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ǥ Š‡ ‘”‡ •‘‡‘‡ ™ƒ–• –‘ „‡
‹ˆ‘”‡†ƒ„‘—–‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ƒ†–Š‡•–”‘‰‡”–Š‡•‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•–ǡ–Š‡‘”‡ȋ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–Ȍ•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ •Š‡ ™‹ŽŽ —•‡ ƒ† –Š‡ ‘”‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ™‹ŽŽ „‡ ƒ…“—‹”‡†Ǥ Ž•‘ ‹†‡‘Ž‘‰› ƒ› ƒˆˆ‡…– –Š‡
•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘—•‡†Ǥ‡‘’Ž‡’”‘„ƒ„Ž›…‘•—Ž––Š‘•‡•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘–Šƒ–ƒ”‡…Ž‘•‡•–
–‘–Š‡‹”‘™‹†‡‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ’‘•‹–‹‘Ǥ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ–Š‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‹•ƒŽ•‘Ž‹‡Ž›–‘ƒˆˆ‡…–•‘—”…‡•ƒ†
“—ƒ–‹–›‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ‹”•–ǡŠ‹‰ŠŽ›‡†—…ƒ–‡†’‡”•‘•™‹ŽŽ”‡ƒ††‹ˆˆ‡”‡–‡™•’ƒ’‡”•–Šƒ’‡‘’Ž‡
™‹–ŠŽ‘™Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǤŽ•‘ǡˆ‘”–Š‡•‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•‡™•’ƒ’‡”•ƒ›„‡‘”‡‹’‘”–ƒ––Šƒǡ
ˆ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘Ǥ‡…‘†ǡ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™‹–ŠŽ‘™‡”†‡‰”‡‡•‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ›—•‡ˆ‡™‡”•‘—”…‡•
‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǤŠ‹”†ǡ–Š‡”‡‹•‡˜‹†‡…‡–Šƒ––Š‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ––‡”•ˆ‘”–Š‡‡š–‡––‘™Š‹…Š
‡™• ‹• ”‡–”‹‡˜‡† ˆ”‘ ˜ƒ”‹‘—• ‡†‹ƒ •‘—”…‡•Ǥ ‘” ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ ”ƒ„‡ǡ ƒŠƒ™‹ ƒ† ‡‰‹›ƒ ȋʹͲͲͻȌ
•Š‘™–Šƒ–Š‹‰ŠŽ›‡†—…ƒ–‡†’‡”•‘•ƒ”‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›„‡––‡”‹”‡‡„‡”‹‰‹–‡•”‡ƒ†‹‡™•’ƒ’‡”•
ƒ†‘–Š‡‹–‡”‡–Ǥ…‘–”ƒ•–ǡ–Š‡Ž‘™‡”‡†—…ƒ–‡†’‡”ˆ‘”„‡•–‹”‡–”‹‡˜‹‰‡™•’”‡•‡–‡†‘
–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘Ǥ
‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰Ž‹†‡”ƒ†”—‡‰‡”ȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ™‡ƒ••—‡–Šƒ–—†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰‘ˆ‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Ǧ
ƒ‹‰ȋUȌ‹•†‡–‡”‹‡†„›EDǡDǡSǡQƒ†Xǡ•‘–Šƒ–™‡…ƒ™”‹–‡ǣ
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Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
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(4) Ui = f4(EDi, Di, Si, Qi , Xi) +e4,i In section 5, we study determinants of understanding by estimating: (5) Ui = β0 + β1 *Di + β2*SIi + β3*Si + β4*Qi + β5 *IDi + β6* EDi + β7 *Xi + εi where ε is white noise. Note that we include the variables that we assume to affect D, S, and Q as well these variables themselves. The reason for also including D, S, and Q is that the fit of our models explaining these variables is rather poor. 11 In our model, the coefficients of D, S, and Q reflect the impact of the unexplained variation of these variables on U. The next section describes our survey and explains how we use the respondents' replies to construct proxies for the variables used in the empirical analysis. 3. The survey In April 2009 we sent a questionnaire to members of the DNB Household Survey (DHS). The DHS, formerly known as the CentER Savings Survey, is a panel study initiated in 1993 by CentERdata, a research institute affiliated to Tilburg University. Our questionnaire was sent out via the internet to 2,369 regular members of the DHS (16 years and older) from 17 until 21 April 2009. This panel forms a representative sample of the Dutch population. Compared to surveys conducted by telephone or mail, the response rate to this continuous internet‐based survey is usually very high. In our case, the response rate is 70% which corresponds to 1,659 individuals. Appendix 1 lists our survey questions. The first three questions are general in nature. First, we asked respondents to indicate to what extent they were affected by the ongoing economic and financial crisis. We use this information to construct a proxy for self‐interest which ranges from 1 11 For further details, we refer to the working paper version of the present paper (Van der Cruijsen, Jansen and De Haan, 2010) in which we also report estimates for models explaining D, S, and Q. 12
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Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
ȋ‘–Š‹–„›–Š‡…”‹•‹•Ȍ–‘Ͷȋ˜‡”›—…ŠŠ‹–„›–Š‡…”‹•‹•ȌǤ‡…‘†ǡ™‡ƒ•‡†™Š‡–Š‡””‡•’‘†‡–•Šƒ†
‘……—’ƒ–‹‘•”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘‡…‘‘‹…ǡ‘‡–ƒ”›‘”ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹••—‡•ǤŠ‡”‡•’‘•‡•–‘–Š‹•“—‡•–‹‘ƒ”‡
—•‡† –‘ …‘•–”—…– ƒ‘–Š‡” •‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•– ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ –Šƒ– ”ƒ‰‡• ˆ”‘ ͳ –‘ ͷǤ Š‡ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–ǯ•
™‘” ‹• ‘– ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ ‡…‘‘‹…ǡ ‘‡–ƒ”› ‘” ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹••—‡•ǡ –Š‹• ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ ‡“—ƒŽ• ͳǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ ‹– ‹• ͷ
™Š‡–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–ǯ•Œ‘„”‡Žƒ–‡•–‘–Š‡•‡ƒ––‡”•‘ƒ†ƒ‹Ž›„ƒ•‹•Ǥ
Š‹”†ǡ ™‡ ƒ•‡† ”‡•’‘†‡–• –‘ ‹†‡–‹ˆ› –Š‡‹” ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ ‘”‹‡–ƒ–‹‘Ǥ Š‡ ƒ•™‡”• –‘ –Š‹•
“—‡•–‹‘™‡”‡—•‡†–‘…‘•–”—…–ƒnoideologyȋIDȌ†—›ǡ™Š‹…Š‹•‘‡ˆ‘””‡•’‘†‡–•‹†‹…ƒ–‹‰
‘– –‘ Šƒ˜‡ –Š‘—‰Š– —…Š ƒ„‘—– ’‘Ž‹–‹…•Ǥ Š‡ ‘–‹˜ƒ–‹‘ ˆ‘” –Š‹• IDǦ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ ‹• Ž‹†‡” ƒ†
”—‡‰‡”ǯ•ȋʹͲͲͶȌˆ‹†‹‰–Šƒ–’‡‘’Ž‡™‹–Š‘—–ƒ…Ž‡ƒ”‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›Šƒ˜‡Ž‡••‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—–‡…‘‘‹…
’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
Š‡ •—”˜‡› …‘–‹—‡† ™‹–Š ƒ •Š‘”– ‹–”‘†—…–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ Ǥ • ™‡ ƒ”‡ ‹–‡”‡•–‡† ‹
‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ǡ™‡‘Ž›‹ˆ‘”‡†”‡•’‘†‡–•–Šƒ–ǣǮTheECBisthecentralbankfor
Europe'ssinglecurrency,theeuro.Since1999theeurohasbeenintroducedin16Europeancountries’Ǥ
‡š–ǡ™‡ƒ•‡†”‡•’‘†‡–•–‘”ƒ–‡–Š‡‹”‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘–Š‡ƒ†‡…‘‘‹…’‘Ž‹…›‹‰‡‡”ƒŽǤ‡
ƒ††‡† –Š‹• “—‡•–‹‘ –‘ ƒ••‡•• ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒ ‹•ƒ–…Š „‡–™‡‡ ƒ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǯ• ’‡”…‡‹˜‡†
‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—––Š‡ƒ†Š‡”ƒ…–—ƒŽ‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ‡–”ƒŽ„ƒ…‘—‹…ƒ–‹‘’‘Ž‹…›™‹ŽŽŠƒ˜‡
‰”‡ƒ–‡”†‹ˆˆ‹…—Ž–›‹”‡ƒ…Š‹‰–Š‘•‡’‡‘’Ž‡™Š‘‹…‘””‡…–Ž›„‡Ž‹‡˜‡–‘„‡™‡ŽŽ‹ˆ‘”‡†Ǥ
Š‡ •—„•‡“—‡– “—‡•–‹‘ ™ƒ• ƒ‹‡† –‘ ‡ƒ•—”‡ ‡š’Ž‹…‹–Ž› –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ †‡•‹”‡ –‘ „‡
‹ˆ‘”‡† ȋDȌǤ ‡ ƒ•‡† –Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ “—‡•–‹‘ǣ ‘How important is it to you to keep well informed
aboutthepoliciesoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)?’ǤŠ‡”‡™‡”‡ˆ‹˜‡’‘••‹„Ž‡ƒ•™‡”•”ƒ‰‹‰
ˆ”‘Ǯ‘–‹’‘”–ƒ–ƒ–ƒŽŽǯ–‘Ǯ‡š–”‡‡Ž›‹’‘”–ƒ–ǯǡ™Š‹…Šƒ”‡”ƒ‡†‘ƒ•…ƒŽ‡„‡–™‡‡ͳȋŽ‘™Ȍ
ƒ† ͷ ȋŠ‹‰ŠȌǤ  “—‡•–‹‘ ͸ ™‡ ƒ•‡† ™Š› ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™ƒ– –‘ „‡ ‹ˆ‘”‡† ƒ„‘—– ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
‡•’‘†‡–•…‘—Ž†‹†‹…ƒ–‡–Š‡‹’‘”–ƒ…‡–Š‡›ƒ––ƒ…Š–‘ƒ—„‡”‘ˆ”‡ƒ•‘•Ǥ
—‡•–‹‘ ͹ ‹• ƒ”‰—ƒ„Ž› –Š‡ ‘•– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹ ‘—” •—”˜‡› ƒ• ‹– ‡ƒ•—”‡• –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ
‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘ˆ‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ–…‘•‹•–•‘ˆƒŽ‹•–‘ˆ‡Ž‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•‘–Š‡ƒ‹‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ–Š‡
̵• ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ ‘—” ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡ •–ƒ–‡‡–• ™‡”‡ „ƒ•‡† ‘ –Š‡ ǯ• •’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‹–•
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Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
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‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ –Š‡ ”‡ƒ‹‹‰ •‡˜‡ ™‡”‡ ˆƒŽ•‡ •–ƒ–‡‡–• †”ƒˆ–‡† „› —•Ǥ ‘” ‡ƒ…Š •–ƒ–‡‡–ǡ
”‡•’‘†‡–•™‡”‡ƒ•‡†–‘ƒ•™‡”™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡•–ƒ–‡‡–‹•–”—‡‘”ˆƒŽ•‡Ǥ•’”‘š›ˆ‘”‘™Ž‡†‰‡
ȋUȌ ™‡ —•‡ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”•Ǥ ͳʹ ‡ ƒŽ•‘ ƒƒŽ›•‡ ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•
„‡–™‡‡–Š‡ˆ”ƒ…–‹‘‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•–‘–”—‡ƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•Ǥ
Š‡”‡ƒ‹‹‰“—‡•–‹‘•‘ˆ‘—”•—”˜‡›”‡ˆ‡””‡†–‘–Š‡•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘–Š‡Ǥ
‡ˆ‹”•–ƒ•‡†™Š‹…Š•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘”‡•’‘†‡–•—•‡–‘‰‡–‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ„‘—––Š‡’‘Ž‹…‹‡•
‘ˆ –Š‡ Ǥ Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• …‘—Ž† ‹†‹…ƒ–‡ ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡› —•‡† –Š‡ ˜ƒ”‹‘—• •‘—”…‡• Ȃ •—…Š ƒ•
–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘ǡ”ƒ†‹‘‘”‹–‡”‡–Ȃ”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›ǡ‘……ƒ•‹‘ƒŽŽ›‘”‡˜‡”Ǥ‡—•‡–Š‡ƒ•™‡”•–‘‡ƒ•—”‡–Š‡
—•‡‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘ƒ•…ƒŽ‡„‡–™‡‡ͳȋ‡˜‡”Ȍƒ†͵ȋ”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›ȌǤŠ‡•‡‡ƒ•—”‡•ƒ”‡’”‘š‹‡•ˆ‘”Q
ȋ“—ƒ–‹–› ‘ˆ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ȌǤ ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ Ž‹†‡” ƒ† ”—‡‰‡” ȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ ™‡ ƒŽ•‘ …‘•–”—…– ‡ƒ•—”‡• ˆ‘”
–Š‡ ȋŽƒ… ‘ˆȌ intensity ‘ˆ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ‡– s1ǡ s2ǡ ƒ† •͵ „‡ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ •‘—”…‡• –Š”‘—‰Š ™Š‹…Š
”‡•’‘†‡–•Ǯ‡˜‡”ǯǡǮ‘……ƒ•‹‘ƒŽŽ›ǯ‘”Ǯ”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›ǯ‘„–ƒ‹‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘–Š‡ǡ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ǡƒ†Ž‡–
s †‡‘–‡ –Š‡ –‘–ƒŽ —„‡” ‘ˆ •‘—”…‡• ȋs …ƒ „‡ Ž‡•• –Šƒ •‹š „‡…ƒ—•‡ ‘ˆ ‘Ǧ”‡•’‘•‡ȌǤ Š‡ QH
ȋǮ“—ƒ–‹–›Š‹‰ŠǯȌƒ†QLȋǮ“—ƒ–‹–›Ž‘™ǯȌƒ”‡†‡ˆ‹‡†ƒ•s3/sƒ†s1/sǡ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ‘”‡šƒ’Ž‡ǡ‹ˆƒ
”‡•’‘†‡–Šƒ•ƒQH‘ˆͲǤʹͷƒ†ƒQL‘ˆͲǤͷǡ–Š‹•”‡•’‘†‡–”‡ƒ†•‘”Š‡ƒ”•”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›ƒ„‘—––Š‡
˜‹ƒʹͷΨ‘ˆ–Š‡•‘—”…‡•ǡ„—–˜‹ƒŠƒŽˆ‘ˆ–Š‡•‘—”…‡••Š‡‡˜‡”‰‡–•‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘–Š‡Ǥ ͳ͵ Š‡ˆ‹ƒŽ“—‡•–‹‘‹•ǣ‘Whichofthefollowingisyourmostimportantsourceofinformationon
the policy of the European Central Bank?’Ǥ ‡ —•‡ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘•‡ –‘ –Š‹• “—‡•–‹‘ –‘ …‘•–”—…– ƒ
†—› –Šƒ– ‡ƒ•—”‡• ™Š‡–Š‡” ‘” ‘– ƒ ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ” ‡†‹— ‹• –Š‡ ‘•– ‹’‘”–ƒ– •‘—”…‡ ‘ˆ
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǤŠ‡•‡†—‹‡•ƒ”‡’”‘š‹‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡S‹‘—”‘†‡ŽǤ
‡Šƒ˜‡ƒŽ•‘Šƒ˜‡†‡–ƒ‹Ž‡†„ƒ…‰”‘—†‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘–Š‡’ƒ‡Ž‡„‡”•ǡ™Š‹…Š™‡
—•‡–‘…‘•–”—…–˜ƒ”‹‘—•…‘–”‘Ž˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ȋXȌǣƒ†—›–Šƒ–‹•‘‡‹ˆ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–‹•ƒŽ‡ȋmaleȌǡ
ͳʹ‡‹‰Š–ƒ”‰—‡–Šƒ–‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘•‘‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹–‡•‹•Ž‡••”‡Ž‡˜ƒ––Šƒˆ‘”‘–Š‡”•Ǥ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ‹•‹–
‡“—ƒŽŽ›‡…‡••ƒ”›–‘‘™–Šƒ––Š‡ǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‹•ƒ„‘—–‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ƒ•‘™‹‰‹–•Š‘—Ž†„‡‡–‹–Š‡
‡†‹—–‡”ǫ‘™‡˜‡”ǡƒ•™‡™ƒ––‘‡ƒ•—”‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ•ˆ‹‡Ž›ƒ•’‘••‹„Ž‡ǡ™‡’”‡ˆ‡”–‘—•‡–Š‡
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘ƒŽŽ‡Ž‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•Ǥ
ͳ͵Ž‹†‡”ƒ†”—‡‰‡”ȋʹͲͲͶǡ’Ǥ͵ͶͳȌƒ”‰—‡ǣǮQHƒ†QL–Š—•‡ƒ•—”‡intensity‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘—•‡ƒ†lackof
intensityǡ ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ ‡…ƒ—•‡ ‘– ƒŽŽ •‘—”…‡• ‘ˆ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ …‘˜‡› ‡“—ƒŽ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǡ ‘—” ‡ƒ•—”‡• ƒ”‡
—†‘—„–‡†Ž›…”—†‡’”‘š‹‡•Ǣ„—––Š‡›ƒ”‡’”‘„ƒ„Ž›•–‹ŽŽ…‘””‡Žƒ–‡†™‹–Š–Š‡‡š–‡––‘™Š‹…Š‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ƒ……‡••
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ„‘—––Š‡‡…‘‘›Ǥǯ
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the age of the respondent (age), and a dummy that is one if the survey participant is living together with a partner (partner). Furthermore, we control for the degree of urbanization by including a variable called city, which ranges from 1 (respondent lives in a rural area) to 5 (respondent lives in a very strongly urbanized area). We also have information on the size of households. 14 In addition, we control for the social status of the respondent (status). This variable ranges from 1 (low status) to 5 (high status). We also use DHS background information to create an education dummy ED that is one for respondents who successfully completed higher vocational education and/or university education, and zero otherwise. Finally, we use data on household income to construct our third self‐
interest variable, which ranges from 1 to 12, based on twelve monthly gross household income categories. This variable (labelled SI1) is our preferred proxy for self‐interest. 15 SI1 is 1 for respondents reporting a household income of 500 euro or less, and 12 when monthly household income is 7,500 euro or more. 4. An overview of the survey results Table 1 provides information on our respondents' gender, age, size of their household, gross monthly income, education level, where they live, and whether they are living with a partner. The average respondent turns out to be male, in his early 50s, living with a partner, and earning a gross monthly income of around 3,800 euros. Table 1 also compares the survey means to the Dutch population based on data provided by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). On a number of dimensions, such as age, gender and education, the sample is not fully representative for the Dutch population. We checked, therefore, whether re‐weighting observations would change our conclusions. This turned out not to be the case. Appendix 2 provides more details on the effect of weighting. [Insert Table 1 here] 14 We do not use household size in our regressions, as it did not turn out to be important. We do use the information on household size to study whether our sample is representative of the Dutch population. 15 Regression results using the other two proxies of self‐interest (‘affected by crisis’ and ‘work related to economic issues’) are available in Van der Cruijsen et al. (2010). ECB
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‹‰—”‡• ͳ –‘ ͵ ‰‹˜‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ‡š–‡– –‘ ™Š‹…Š ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™‡”‡ Š‹– „› –Š‡
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•ǡ–Š‡‹”™‘”‡˜‹”‘‡–ǡƒ†–Š‡‹”‹†‡‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ ’‘•‹–‹‘Ǥ‹‰—”‡ͳ•Š‘™•–Šƒ–ƒ„‘—–
Ͷͷ’‡”…‡–‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–•ƒ•™‡”‡†–Šƒ––Š‡›™‡”‡‡‹–Š‡”˜‡”›—…Š‘”•‘‡™Šƒ–ƒˆˆ‡…–‡†„›
–Š‡ …”‹•‹•Ǥ ‹‰—”‡ ʹ ”‡˜‡ƒŽ• –Šƒ– ƒ„‘—– ͹Ͳ ’‡”…‡– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ƒ”‡ ‘– ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽŽ›
‹–‡”‡•–‡† ‹ ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…›Ǧƒ‹‰ǡ –Š‡”‡„› ‡•—”‹‰ –Šƒ– –Š‡ •—”˜‡› …ƒ’–—”‡• –Š‡
—†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡̵’—„Ž‹…ƒ–Žƒ”‰‡̵Ǥ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ‹‰—”‡͵’”‡•‡–•‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ„‘—––Š‡•‡ŽˆǦ†‡…Žƒ”‡†
‹†‡‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ ’‘•‹–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–•Ǥ „‘—– ʹͲΨ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ‹†‹…ƒ–‡ –Š‡› Šƒ˜‡ ‘–
–Š‘—‰Š–—…Šƒ„‘—––Š‡‹”’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ’‘•‹–‹‘Ǥ
ȏ•‡”–‹‰—”‡•ͳǦ͵Š‡”‡Ȑ
ƒ„Ž‡ʹ•Š‘™•–Šƒ–‘˜‡”ƒ“—ƒ”–‡”‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–••Š‘™Ž‹––Ž‡‹–‡”‡•–‹„‡‹‰‹ˆ‘”‡†
ƒ„‘—–‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ǡ ƒ•–Š‡›‹†‹…ƒ–‡–Šƒ–„‡‹‰‹ˆ‘”‡† ƒ„‘—– ’‘Ž‹…‹‡•‹•‡‹–Š‡”‘– ˜‡”›
‹’‘”–ƒ–ǡ ‘” ‡˜‡ ‘– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ƒ– ƒŽŽǤ – ƒŽ•‘ ƒ’’‡ƒ”• –Šƒ– ‘•– ”‡•’‘†‡–• †‘ ‘– •‡‡ ƒ …Ž‡ƒ”
”‡ƒ•‘ ™Š› ’‘Ž‹…› •Š‘—Ž† ƒ––‡” –‘ –Š‡ ’‡”•‘ƒŽŽ›Ǥ • ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™• ˆ”‘ ƒ„Ž‡ ͵ǡ ͷ͹Ψ ‘ˆ –Š‡
”‡•’‘†‡–• …‘•‹†‡” –Š‡ ‹’‘”–ƒ…‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‡…‘‘› ƒ• –Š‡ …”—…‹ƒŽ ”‡ƒ•‘ –‘ „‡
‹ˆ‘”‡†ƒ„‘—––Š‡ǤƒŒ‘”‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–•”‡’‘”––Šƒ––Š‡›ǮŒ—•–Ž‹‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†ǯǤ
Ž› ˆ‡™ ”‡•’‘†‡–• Œ—†‰‡ –Š‡ ‘–Š‡”ǡ ‘”‡ ’‡”•‘ƒŽǡ ”‡ƒ•‘• ‘ –Š‡ Ž‹•– ȋ ’‘Ž‹…› ƒˆˆ‡…–• ›
’—”…Šƒ•‹‰ ’‘™‡”ǡ › ‹…‘‡ǡ › •–‘…• ƒ† ‘–Š‡” ‹˜‡•–‡–•ǡ ƒ† › Œ‘„Ȍ ƒ• ‡š–”‡‡Ž›
‹’‘”–ƒ–”‡ƒ•‘•–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†ƒ„‘—––Š‡’‘Ž‹…‹‡•Ǥ
ȏ•‡”–ƒ„Ž‡•ʹƒ†͵Š‡”‡Ȑ
‹‰—”‡Ͷ•Š‘™•–Š‡†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ†‹…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•–‘–Š‡‡Ž‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•
ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ǯ• ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•Ǥ Š‡ •–ƒ–‡‡– –Šƒ– –Š‡ ƒ‹ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‹• ’”‹…‡ •–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›
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”‡…‡‹˜‡† „› ˆƒ” –Š‡ Š‹‰Š‡•– ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”• ȋ͸ͷΨȌǤ ‡–ƒ‹Ž• ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ƒ”‡
Ž‡••™‡ŽŽ‘™Ǥ’‘”–ƒ–Ž›ǡˆ‡™”‡•’‘†‡–•ƒ”‡ƒ™ƒ”‡–Šƒ––Š‡†‘‡•‘–†‡ˆ‹‡‹–•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡
‹ –‡”• ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‡ƒ…Š ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ‡—”‘ ƒ”‡ƒ …‘—–”›Ǥ Š‡ ȋˆƒŽ•‡Ȍ •–ƒ–‡‡– –Šƒ– –Š‡ ̵•
‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ƒ’’Ž‹‡•–‘ƒŽŽ‡—”‘ƒ”‡ƒ…‘—–”‹‡••‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡Ž›”‡…‡‹˜‡†–Š‡Ž‘™‡•–•…‘”‡‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•
ȋʹͲΨȌǤ ͳ͸ Š‹•ˆ‹†‹‰‹•’‘–‡–‹ƒŽŽ›™‘””‹•‘‡Ǥ–‹’Ž‹‡•–Šƒ–‡˜‡™Š‡‡—”‘ƒ”‡ƒ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‹•‹
Ž‹‡™‹–Š–Š‡ǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǡ–Š‡…ƒ•—ˆˆ‡”ƒŽ‘••‘ˆ…”‡†‹„‹Ž‹–›‹…‘—–”‹‡•‹–Š‡‡—”‘ƒ”‡ƒ
™‹–Šƒ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘”ƒ–‡ƒ„‘˜‡ʹΨǤ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆ‹•—ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘™Ž‡†‰‡ǡ‹–‹•Ž‹‡Ž›–Šƒ–ƒ‹’‘”–ƒ–
•Šƒ”‡‘ˆ–Š‡ ’—„Ž‹…ƒ–Žƒ”‰‡™‹ŽŽ‹–‡”’”‡–†‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘•‘ˆƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ˆ”‘ Ǯ…Ž‘•‡–‘„—–„‡Ž‘™
–™‘’‡”…‡–ǯƒ•ƒ•Š‘”–…‘‹‰‘ˆ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
ȏ•‡”–‹‰—”‡ͶŠ‡”‡Ȑ
‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ –Š‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡ „‡–™‡‡ –”—‡ ƒ† ˆƒŽ•‡ •–ƒ–‡‡–• –—”• ‘—– –‘ „‡ “—‹–‡ ‹’‘”–ƒ–Ǥ
Š‡–”—‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•™‡”‡‹–‡•ͳȋ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‹•’”‹…‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›Ȍǡ͹ȋ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘…Ž‘•‡–‘ǡ„—–„‡Ž‘™ʹΨȌǡ
ͻ ȋ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ƒ’’Ž‹‡• –‘ –Š‡ ‡—”‘ ƒ”‡ƒ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡Ȍ ƒ† ͳͳ ȋ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ƒ’’Ž‹‡• –‘ –Š‡ ‡†‹— –‡”Ȍ ‘ˆ
“—‡•–‹‘ ͹ ‘ˆ ‘—” •—”˜‡›Ǥ ‹‰—”‡ ͷ •Š‘™• –Š‡ ˆ”ƒ…–‹‘ ‘ˆ …‘””‡…–Ž› ƒ•™‡”‡† –”—‡ ȋŽ‡ˆ– ’ƒ‡ŽȌ ƒ†
ˆƒŽ•‡ȋ”‹‰Š–’ƒ‡ŽȌ•–ƒ–‡‡–•ǤŽ‡ƒ”Ž›ǡ”‡•’‘†‡–•†‹†—…Š„‡––‡”ƒ–ƒ•™‡”‹‰–”—‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•Ǥ
Š‹••—‰‰‡•–•–Šƒ–ǡ™Š‡‹†‘—„–ƒ„‘—––Š‡”‹‰Š–ƒ•™‡”ǡ”‡•’‘†‡–•…Š‘•‡Ǯ–”—‡ǯƒ•–Š‡‹”†‡ˆƒ—Ž–
ƒ•™‡”Ǥ•ƒ…‘•‡“—‡…‡ǡ™‡ƒ›„‡‘˜‡”‡•–‹ƒ–‹‰–Š‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ™‡™‡”‡•—”’”‹•‡†„›–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ’‡‘’Ž‡ȋͷͲΨȌ™Š‘ƒ•™‡”‡†•–ƒ–‡‡–ͳͳȋ–Š‡
ǯ• ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ƒ’’Ž‹‡• –‘ –Š‡ ‡†‹— –‡”Ȍ …‘””‡…–Ž› ƒ• ™‡ …‘•‹†‡”‡† –Š‹• ƒ• ‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘”‡
†‹ˆˆ‹…—Ž–•–ƒ–‡‡–•–‘ƒ•™‡”Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ‹ˆ”‡•’‘†‡–•…Š‘•‡Ǯ–”—‡ǯ™Š‡‹†‘—„–ǡ–Š‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡‘ˆ
ͷͲΨ™‘—Ž†„‡‘’–‹‹•–‹…Ǥ
ͳ͸  …‘–”ƒ•–ǡƒ†‡” ”—‹Œ•‡ ƒ† ‡‡”–œ‹• ȋʹͲͲͻȌ•Š‘™–Šƒ– ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ• †‘ ”‡ƒŽ‹œ‡ –Šƒ––Š‡ ‰‘ƒŽ
†‘‡•‘–ƒ’’Ž›–‘ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘”ƒ–‡•Ǥ
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[Insert Figure 5 here] Next, we relate respondents´ self‐declared knowledge to their actual knowledge. Figure 6 shows that there is a positive link between the two; on average individuals with higher self‐
declared ECB knowledge answer more questions correctly (correlation: 0.36). However, almost all survey participants who indicate to have good or very good knowledge (8.3% of the respondents) ‘fail’ the test, as they do not fully understand the ECB’s main objective. The average number of correct answers is 6.5 for the ‘good’ category, and 7.8 for the ‘very good’ category. Especially in this last category, the dispersion is quite large. Although central bank communication can be used as a tool to improve knowledge, it will be difficult to reach those individuals who are not aware of these knowledge gaps. [Insert Figure 6 here] Finally, Table 4 shows the answers to the question concerning the most important source of information. It is clear that television is by far the most important source of ECB information. Almost 42% of the respondents put this intermediary on top, followed by newspapers (almost 33%). The other sources of information receive low scores. [Insert Table 4 here] 5. What determines knowledge about the ECB's objectives? We now turn to explaining the respondents' knowledge about the ECB's monetary policy. As the dependent variable, we first use the number of correctly answered questions on monetary policy objectives. Following Blinder and Krueger (2004), zero scores were assigned in case respondents answered ‘I don’t know’ to the knowledge questions. Figure 7 shows the distribution of the number 18
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November 2010
‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”•Ǥ ‹˜‡ –Š‡ †‹•…”‡–‡ ƒ† Ž‹‹–‡† ƒ–—”‡ ‘ˆ –Š‹• ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ǡ ™‡ —•‡ ‘†‡Ž• ˆ‘”
ƒƒŽ›œ‹‰…‘—–†ƒ–ƒǤ
ȏ•‡”–‹‰—”‡͹Š‡”‡Ȑ
Š‡ ™‘”Š‘”•‡ ‘†‡Ž ‹ –Š‹• ˆ‹‡Ž† ‹• –Š‡ ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘Ǥ ͳ͹  ‘—” …ƒ•‡ǡ –Š‡ •–ƒ†ƒ”†
‘‹••‘ ƒ••—’–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‡“—ƒŽ‹–› „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ …‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ‡ƒ ƒ† –Š‡ …‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ…‡ ‹•
˜‹‘Žƒ–‡††—‡–‘ƒ…Ž—•–‡”‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•ƒ”‘—†œ‡”‘Ǥˆ–Š‡ͳ͸ͷͻ‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•ǡͳ͸Ǥ͵؊ƒ•ƒ
˜ƒŽ—‡‡“—ƒŽ–‘œ‡”‘ǤŠ‡”‡ƒ”‡–™‘‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘•ˆ‘”–Š‹•…Ž—•–‡”‹‰ƒ–œ‡”‘Ǥ‹”•–ǡ–Š‡œ‡”‘…ƒ–‡‰‘”›
‹…Ž—†‡• –Š‘•‡ ͲǤͺΨ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™Š‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ•™‡”‡† ƒŽŽ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ “—‡•–‹‘• ‹…‘””‡…–Ž›Ǥ
‡…‘—Ž†…ƒŽŽ–Š‡•‡‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•–Š‡Ǯ–”—‡œ‡”‘•ǯǤŠ‡•‡…‘†…ƒ–‡‰‘”›‘ˆœ‡”‘•‹•‘”‡’”‘‹‡–Ǥ
–…‘•‹•–•‘ˆ–Š‘•‡ͳͷǤ͸Ψ‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–•™Š‘ƒ•™‡”‡†Ǯ†‘ǯ–‘™ǯ–‘ƒŽŽ‘ˆ–Š‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡
“—‡•–‹‘•ǤŽ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡•‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ƒ›Šƒ˜‡Šƒ†‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ǡ–Š‡›†‡…Ž‹‡†
–‘ ƒ•™‡” ƒ› “—‡•–‹‘Ǥ ‘ǡ ˆ‘” ‡ƒ…Š ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ “—‡•–‹‘ǡ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡– Šƒ† –‘ ƒ‡ –™‘
†‡…‹•‹‘•Ǥ‹”•–ǡ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–Šƒ†–‘†‡…‹†‡™Š‡–Š‡”•Š‡™ƒ–‡†–‘ƒ•™‡”–Š‡“—‡•–‹‘Ǥ‡…‘†ǡ
‹…ƒ•‡Ǯ†‘ǯ–‘™ǯ™ƒ•‘–•‡Ž‡…–‡†ǡ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–Šƒ†–‘…Š‘‘•‡„‡–™‡‡Ǯ–”—‡ǯƒ†ǮˆƒŽ•‡ǯǤ
Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ ‹– ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ– –‘ ‘†‡Ž –Š‡ †‡…‹•‹‘ –‘ ƒ•™‡” –Š‡ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ “—‡•–‹‘• ‹
ƒ††‹–‹‘ –‘ ƒƒŽ›œ‹‰ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…–Ž› ƒ•™‡”‡† “—‡•–‹‘•Ǥ Š‡ Ž‹–‡”ƒ–—”‡ ‘ …‘—– †ƒ–ƒ
•—‰‰‡•–• –™‘ ‘†‡Ž•ǣ –Š‡ Š—”†Ž‡ ‘†‡Ž ƒ† –Š‡ œ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡† ‘†‡ŽǤ ‹‡Žƒ ȋʹͲͲͺǡ ’Ǥ ͳͺͻȌ
”‡…‘‡†•—•‹‰ƒœ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡†‘†‡Ž‘…‡–Š‡”‡‹•‘”‡–Šƒ‘‡”‡ƒ•‘ˆ‘”–Š‡‘……—””‡…‡‘ˆ
œ‡”‘•Ǥ Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ ‘—” ’”‡ˆ‡””‡† ‘†‡Ž ‹• ƒ œ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡† ‘‹••‘ ‘†‡Ž ȋƒ„‡”–ǡ ͳͻͻʹȌǤ ͳͺ Š‹•
‡ƒ• –Šƒ– ‘—” ”‡•—Ž–• ƒŽ™ƒ›• …‘‡ ‹ –™‘ ’ƒ”–•ǣ ƒ Ž‘‰‹– ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ ƒ œ‡”‘
‘—–…‘‡ǡ ƒ† ƒ ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ ˆ‘” –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”• –‘ “—‡•–‹‘ ͹Ǥ Š‡
‡š’Žƒƒ–‘”› ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ‹ –Š‡ –™‘ ’ƒ”–• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘†‡Ž …ƒ „‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡–Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ‹ ’”ƒ…–‹…‡ǡ –Š‡
ͳ͹Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰†‹•…—••‹‘†”ƒ™•‘ƒ‡”‘ƒ†”‹˜‡†‹ȋʹͲͲ͹Ȍƒ†‹‡ŽƒȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ
ͳͺ ‡…‘’ƒ”‡†–Š‡‘—–…‘‡•ƒ‰ƒ‹•–ƒŠ—”†Ž‡‘†‡Žȋ—ŽŽƒŠ›ǡͳͻͺ͸ȌǤŠ‡’ƒ”ƒ‡–‡”‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡–™‘
‘†‡Ž•™‡”‡˜‡”›•‹‹Žƒ”ǤŠ‹•‹•’”‘„ƒ„Ž›†—‡–‘–Š‡•ƒŽŽˆ”ƒ…–‹‘ȋͲǤͺΨȌ‘ˆǮ–”—‡ǯœ‡”‘•Ǥ
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
19
‹†‡’‡†‡– ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• —•‡† ‹ –Š‡ Ž‘‰‹– ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ ƒ”‡ ‘ˆ–‡ ƒŽ•‘ —•‡† ‹ –Š‡ ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘
ȋƒ‡”‘ƒ†”‹˜‡†‹ǡʹͲͲ͹ǡ’Ǥͳʹ͹ȌǤ
Š‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ”‡•—Ž–• ˆ‘” ˆ‘—” œ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡† ‘‹••‘ ‘†‡Ž• ƒ”‡ ’”‡•‡–‡† ‹ ƒ„Ž‡ ͷǡ
™Š‡”‡ƒ•ƒ„Ž‡͸•Š‘™•ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–•…‘’—–‡†ƒ–•ƒ’Ž‡‡ƒ•Ǥ‘Ž—ȋͳȌ‘ˆƒ„Ž‡ͷ’”‡•‡–•
–Š‡”‡•—Ž–•‹ˆ–Š‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•‹–Š‡X˜‡…–‘”ƒ”‡‹…Ž—†‡†ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•–Š‡†‡•‹”‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†ȋDȌǡ•‡ŽˆǦ
‹–‡”‡•–ȋSI1Ȍǡ–Š‡‘‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ȋIDȌǡƒ†‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ȋEDȌǤ‡•’‘†‡–•™‹–Šƒ•–”‘‰†‡•‹”‡
–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†ǡ•–”‘‰•‡ŽˆǦ‹–‡”‡•–ǡƒŠ‹‰Š•‘…‹ƒŽ•–ƒ–—•ǡ™Š‘Ž‹˜‡‹—”„ƒ‹œ‡†ƒ”‡ƒ•ǡƒ”‡Ž‡••Ž‹‡Ž›
–‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ œ‡”‘ •…‘”‡ ‹ –Š‡ Ž‘‰‹– ‘†‡Žǡ ‹Ǥ‡Ǥǡ –Š‡› ƒ”‡ ‘”‡ ‹…Ž‹‡† –‘ ƒ•™‡” –Š‡ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡
“—‡•–‹‘•Ǥ ͳͻ  …‘–”ƒ•–ǡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™‹–Š‘—– ƒ …Ž‡ƒ” ‹†‡‘Ž‘‰› ƒ”‡ Ž‡•• Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ”‡…‡‹˜‡ ƒ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡
•…‘”‡Ǥ Š‡ ”‡•—Ž–• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ •—‰‰‡•– –Šƒ– ƒŽ‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™‹–Š •–”‘‰ •‡ŽˆǦ
‹–‡”‡•–ǡƒ…Ž‡ƒ”‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›ǡŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡƒ†ƒŠ‹‰Š•‘…‹ƒŽ•–ƒ–—•ƒ”‡‘”‡Ž‹‡Ž›–‘ƒ•™‡”–Š‡
•–ƒ–‡‡–•ƒ„‘—––Š‡̵•‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›…‘””‡…–Ž›ǡ™Š‹Ž‡‡Ž†‡”Ž›”‡•’‘†‡–•ƒ†”‡•’‘†‡–•
™Š‘Šƒ˜‡ƒ’ƒ”–‡”ƒ”‡‘”‡Ž‹‡Ž›–‘Šƒ˜‡Ž‡••‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—––Š‡̵•‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ǤŠ‡
ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ȋƒ„Ž‡ ͸Ȍ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‹…Ž—†‡† …‘˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‡• Šƒ˜‡ ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‹’ƒ…– ‘ –Š‡
—„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”•ǡ ‡š…‡’– ˆ‘” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ʹͲ Ž–Š‘—‰Š –Š‡ †‡•‹”‡ –‘ „‡ ‹ˆ‘”‡† ‹• ‘–
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹–Š‡‘‹••‘’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡‘†‡Žǡ–Š‡‘˜‡”ƒŽŽƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ǤŠ‡‹–—‹–‹‘‹•
–Šƒ––Š‡†‡•‹”‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†Šƒ•ƒ•–”‘‰‡ˆˆ‡…–‘–Š‡†‡…‹•‹‘–‘ƒ•™‡”–Š‡“—‡•–‹‘ǡƒ••Š‘™
‹–Š‡Ž‘‰‹–”‡‰”‡••‹‘Ǥ
 …‘Ž— ȋʹȌ ‘ˆ ƒ„Ž‡ ͷ ™‡ ƒ†† –Š”‡‡ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ”‡ˆŽ‡…–‹‰ –Š‡ ‘•– ‹’‘”–ƒ– •‘—”…‡ ‘ˆ
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ –Š‡ ̵• ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ƒ……‘”†‹‰ –‘ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–•Ǥ Š‡ ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ‹
ƒ„Ž‡ ͸ ƒ”‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ˆ‘” ƒŽŽ –Š”‡‡ ‡†‹ƒ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ǥ Š‹• •Š‘™• –Šƒ– ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™Š‘ —•‡
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ Šƒ˜‡ „‡––‡” ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ –Šƒ –Š‘•‡ ͺΨ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™Š‘ †‘ ‘– —•‡ ƒ›
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ–ƒŽŽǤ‡š–ǡ™‡”‡’Žƒ…‡S„›Qǡ‘—”’”‘š›ˆ‘”–Š‡“—ƒ–‹–›‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ•‹––—”•‘—–ǡ
–Š‹•’”‘š›‹•’‘•‹–‹˜‡ƒ†•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ˆ‘”–Š‡…ƒ•‡‘ˆ–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘ƒ†‡™•’ƒ’‡”•ȋƒ„Ž‡͸ǡ…‘Ž—͵ȌǤ
ͳͻ‘–‡–Šƒ–‹…‘Ž—•ȋʹȌƒ†ȋ͵Ȍ‘ˆƒ„Ž‡ͷ–Š‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘ˆcity‹•‘–•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹–Š‡Ž‘‰‹–‘†‡ŽǤ
ʹͲ‘–‡–Šƒ–‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ›•–‹ŽŽ’Žƒ›ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–”‘Ž‡˜‹ƒ–Š‡†‡•‹”‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†ȋ•‡‡ƒ†‡””—‹Œ•‡‡–ƒŽǤ
ʹͲͳͲȌǤ
20
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
Š‹•‡ƒ•–Šƒ–‰”‡ƒ–‡”—•‡‘ˆ–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘ƒ†‡™•’ƒ’‡”•–‘Ž‡ƒ”ƒ„‘—–’‘Ž‹…‹‡•Šƒ•ƒ’‘•‹–‹˜‡
”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ ™‹–Š ƒ…–—ƒŽ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ„‘—– ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•Ǥ ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ ™‡ ‹•‡”– –Š‡ ‹–‡•‹–› ‘ˆ
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• QH ƒ† QL ȋ…‘Ž— Ͷ ‘ˆ ƒ„Ž‡ ͷȌǤ ʹͳ ‡•’‘†‡–• ™‹–Š ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› Ž‘™
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‹–‡•‹–› Ȃ ƒ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› Š‹‰Š •Šƒ”‡ ‘ˆ •‘—”…‡• –Š”‘—‰Š ™Š‹…Š –Š‡› never ‘„–ƒ‹
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ –Š‡ Ȃ ƒ”‡ Ž‡•• ‹…Ž‹‡† –‘ ƒ•™‡” –Š‡ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ “—‡•–‹‘•Ǥ ‹˜‡ –Šƒ–
”‡•’‘†‡–•ƒ•™‡”–Š‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡“—‡•–‹‘•ǡ–Š‘•‡™‹–ŠŠ‹‰Š‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‹–‡•‹–›Ȃƒ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›
Š‹‰Š •Šƒ”‡ ‘ˆ •‘—”…‡• –Š”‘—‰Š ™Š‹…Š –Š‡› regularly ”‡…‡‹˜‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ ǯ• ’‘Ž‹…› Ȃ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ
„‡––‡” —†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ǯ• ‰‘ƒŽǤ ˜‡”ƒŽŽǡ „‘–Š QH ƒ† QL Šƒ˜‡ ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ –Š‡
—„‡”‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•ȋƒ„Ž‡͸ǡ…‘Ž—ͶȌǤ•‡š’‡…–‡†ǡQH‹•’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›ƒ†QL‹•‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡Ž›
”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ
˜‡”ƒŽŽǡ –Š‡ ”‡•—Ž–• ˆ‘” –Š‡ –Š”‡‡ •‡–• ‘ˆ ‡†‹ƒ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• •—‰‰‡•– –Šƒ– ‘„–ƒ‹‹‰ ‘”‡
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ Ž‡ƒ†• –‘ „‡––‡” ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ Š‹• ‹’Ž‹‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‡†‹ƒ …Šƒ‡Ž
ƒ›„‡ƒ—•‡ˆ—Ž…Šƒ‡Žˆ‘”…‡–”ƒŽ„ƒ•–‘‹’”‘˜‡–Š‡’—„Ž‹…ǯ•‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ
ȏ•‡”–ƒ„Ž‡•ͷƒ†͸Š‡”‡Ȑ
‘ ƒ••‡•• ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡ „‡–™‡‡ –”—‡ ƒ† ˆƒŽ•‡ •–ƒ–‡‡–• ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ–ǡ ™‡
”‡’‡ƒ–‡† –Š‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• ˆ‘” †‡–‡”‹ƒ–• ‘ˆ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ ‡ ‘™ —•‡ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘• ™Š‡”‡ –Š‡
†‡’‡†‡–˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ƒ”‡–Š‡ˆ”ƒ…–‹‘‘ˆ…‘””‡…–Ž›ƒ•™‡”‡†–”—‡ƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•Ǥ…‡ƒ‰ƒ‹ǡ
™‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡ –Š”‡‡ –›’‡• ‘ˆ ‘†‡Ž•ǡ „ƒ•‡† ‘ –Š‡ –›’‡ ‘ˆ ‡†‹ƒ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ȋSǡ Q ‘” QH ƒ† QLȌ
‹…Ž—†‡†ǤŠ‡”‡•—Ž–•ƒ”‡•Š‘™‹ƒ„Ž‡͹Ǥ
‹”•–ǡ –Š‡ ”‡•—Ž– –Šƒ– ‘„–ƒ‹‹‰ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ –Š”‘—‰Š –Š‡ ‡†‹ƒ ‹’”‘˜‡• ‘™Ž‡†‰‡
…‘–‹—‡•–‘Š‘Ž†ˆ‘”–”—‡ƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•ǤŠ‡”‡‹•‡˜‡ƒ…Ž‡ƒ”‡”‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆQLǡ„—–‘Ž›‹…ƒ•‡
‘ˆ–Š‡–”—‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•Ǥ–‹ŽŽǡ•‘‡‹–‡”‡•–‹‰†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•…‘’ƒ”‡†–‘–Š‡”‡•—Ž–•„ƒ•‡†‘–Š‡–‘–ƒŽ
ʹͳ•‹Ž‹†‡”ƒ†”—‡‰‡”ȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ–Š‡ˆ”‡“—‡…›†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘‘ˆ‹•’‹Ž‡†—’ƒ––Š‡Ž‘™‡”‡†Ǥ”‘—†
–™‘Ǧ–Š‹”†•‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–•Šƒ˜‡ƒ˜ƒŽ—‡ˆ‘”‡“—ƒŽ–‘œ‡”‘Ǥ‹•‘”‡‡˜‡Ž›†‹•–”‹„—–‡†ǤŽ‹––Ž‡‘˜‡”
ͳͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–•Šƒ˜‡ƒ‡“—ƒŽ–‘ͳǤŠ‡…‘””‡Žƒ–‹‘„‡–™‡‡ƒ†‹•‡“—ƒŽ–‘ǦͲǤͷ͵Ǥ
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
21
number of correct answers show up. First, the desire to be informed has a significant effect in all three models, but only for the true statements. Second, the demographic variables continue to be important, but often only in the case of the false statements. 22 [Insert Table 7 here] 6. Is the level of knowledge related to inflation expectations? We now turn to the final question: ‘To what extent are inflation expectations and knowledge on the ECB’s objective related?’. To address this issue, we use the following standard question from the DHS: ‘What do you think is the most likely price increase (increase of consumer prices) over the next twelve months?’. Figure 8 shows the distribution of the answers to this question. 23 The expectations range between 1% and 10%, with the mode and median at 2%, while the mean is around 2.7%. [Insert Figure 8 here] There is a well‐established literature regarding survey data on household expectations. A number of papers are closely related to our work in their use of micro‐level data. 24 In an early contribution, Jonung (1981) shows how perceived and expected rates of inflation in a cross‐section of Swedish households differ between various demographic groups. Differences between demographic groups are also found for the United States by Bryan and Venkatu (2001). Using a Web‐based survey with RAND’s American life panel, whose members were recruited from 22 One concern regarding the knowledge regressions could be that participation in the DHS itself leads to better knowledge. We included length of participation in the panel as an additional regressor, but this variable had no significant effect. 23 Admittedly, our test is indirect, as these expectations pertain to Dutch consumer prices. Expectations for the euro area inflation are, however, not included in the DHS. The variable we use is PR0 from the standard DHS list. For this question, respondents are asked to report integer numbers between one and ten. 24 Most papers focus on the aggregate dynamics of household expectations. See Carroll (2003) for an important contribution. For expectations of experts, there is more research on individual forecasts. See, for instance, Dovern, Fritsche and Slačálek (2009) or Capistrán and Timmermann (2009). 22
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
”‡•’‘†‡–• ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‹‰ ‹ –Š‡ ‹…Š‹‰ƒ —”˜‡› ‘ˆ ‘•—‡”• ‹ ʹͲͲ͹ǡ ”—‹‡ ‡ ”—‹ ‡– ƒŽǤ
ȋʹͲͳͲȌ”‡’‘”––Šƒ–Š‹‰Š‡”‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•™‡”‡”‡’‘”–‡†„›‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™Š‘ˆ‘…—•‡†‘”‡‘
Š‘™–‘…‘˜‡”–Š‡‹”ˆ—–—”‡‡š’‡•‡•ƒ†‘’”‹…‡•–Š‡›’ƒ›ȋ”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒ‘–Š‡ǤǤ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘”ƒ–‡Ȍ
ƒ†„›‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™‹–ŠŽ‘™‡”ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽŽ‹–‡”ƒ…›Ǥ•‹‰–Š‡Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž††ƒ–ƒ—†‡”Ž›‹‰–Š‡‹…Š‹‰ƒ
†‡š ‘ˆ ‘•—‡” ‡–‹‡–ǡ ‘—Ž‡Ž‡• ȋʹͲͲͶȌ ˆ‹†• ‡˜‹†‡…‡ –Šƒ– Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž† ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ƒ”‡
„‹ƒ•‡† ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• ‹‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ƒ”‡ •–‹ŽŽ ‡…‘‘‹…ƒŽŽ› ‡ƒ‹‰ˆ—Žǡ ƒ• –Š‡› ƒ”‡
—•‡ˆ—Ž ‹ ˆ‘”‡…ƒ•–‹‰ ˆ—–—”‡ …‘•—’–‹‘Ǥ ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ ”ƒ…Š ȋʹͲͲͶǡ ʹͲͲ͹Ȍ —•‡• ‹…”‘Ǧ†ƒ–ƒ ˆ”‘ –Š‡
‹…Š‹‰ƒ —”˜‡› ‘ˆ ‘•—‡”• ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ’‡”‹‘† ͳͻ͹͹ –‘ ͳͻͻ͵ –‘ •–—†› ‡†‘‰‡‘—• ‘†‡Ž
—…‡”–ƒ‹–› ƒ† ‘†‡Ž• ‹…‘”’‘”ƒ–‹‰ •–‹…›Ǧ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ• ‹–”‘†—…‡† „› ƒ‹™ ƒ† ‡‹•
ȋʹͲͲʹȌǤ
ƒ„Ž‡ ͺ ‰‹˜‡• ƒ „”‡ƒ†‘™ ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ”‡’‘”–‡† „› ‡„‡”• ‹ ’”‹Ž
ʹͲͲͻƒŽ‘‰˜ƒ”‹‘—•†‹‡•‹‘•ǤŽ‹‡™‹–Š–Š‡Ž‹–‡”ƒ–—”‡ǡ™‡ˆ‹†–Šƒ–‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•˜ƒ”›
ƒ…”‘•• †‡‘‰”ƒ’Š‹… ‰”‘—’•Ǥ ‡ Šƒ˜‡ Ž‘™‡” ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• –Šƒ ™‘‡ǡ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•
†‡…Ž‹‡ ™‹–Š ‹…‘‡ ƒ† •‘…‹ƒŽǦ‡…‘‘‹… •–ƒ–—•ǡ ƒ† ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ™‹–Š Š‹‰Š Ž‡˜‡Ž• ‘ˆ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‡š’‡…– Ž‘™‡” ‹…”‡ƒ•‡• ‹ …‘•—‡” ’”‹…‡•Ǥ ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ƒ”‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› Š‹‰Š ˆ‘” –Š‡ ›‘—‰
ƒ† ‘Ž†ǡ ƒ† Ž‘™ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‹††Ž‡Ǧƒ‰‡†Ǥ ‡ ƒŽ•‘ ˆ‹† –Šƒ– –Š‡ †‡•‹”‡ –‘ „‡ ‹ˆ‘”‡† Šƒ• ƒ ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡
”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ ™‹–Š –Š‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǡ ƒ† –Šƒ– ’‡‘’Ž‡ ™Š‘ Šƒ˜‡ ‘– –Š‘—‰Š– ƒ„‘—– ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ
‹†‡‘Ž‘‰‹‡•‡š’‡…–Š‹‰Š‡”Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘Ǥ
ȏ•‡”–ƒ„Ž‡ͺŠ‡”‡Ȑ ‡š–ǡ™‡–—”–‘ƒ‘”‡ˆ‘”ƒŽƒƒŽ›•‹•‘ˆ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ—”•—”˜‡›†‘‡•‘–‡ƒ„Ž‡—•–‘
‡š’Ž‘”‡ –‹‡Ǧ˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ™‡ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ ˜‡”› ”‹…Š •‡– ‘ˆ „ƒ…‰”‘—†
˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ™Š‹…Š™‡…ƒ—•‡–‘‡š’Žƒ‹–Š‡…”‘••Ǧ•‡…–‹‘ƒŽ˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‹‘‹‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ‡—•‡–Š‹•”‹…Š
†ƒ–ƒǦ•‡––‘ƒ•™‡”–Š‡“—‡•–‹‘ǣǮ‘‡•‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Š‡Ž’‹‰‡‡”ƒ–‹‰”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…
‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǫǯǤ‘†‘•‘ǡ™‡ˆ‹”•–†‡ˆ‹‡Ǯ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…ǯ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ‘‘‹‰ƒ–‹‰—”‡ͺǡƒˆ‹”•–
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
23
’‘‹–‹•–Šƒ–•‘‡”‡•’‘†‡–•…Ž‡ƒ”Ž›‡š’‡…–ƒ–‘‘Š‹‰ŠŽ‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘Ǥ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ–Š‹•™‘—Ž†
…‡”–ƒ‹Ž›ƒ’’Ž›–‘–Š‡‹‡–‡‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™Š‘‡š’‡…–ƒ’”‹…‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡‘ˆͳͲΨ‘˜‡”–Š‡‡š––™‡Ž˜‡
‘–Š•Ǥ–’”‘„ƒ„Ž›ƒŽ•‘ƒ’’Ž‹‡•–‘–Š‘•‡”‡•’‘†‡–•™Š‘‡š’‡…–‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘”ƒ–‡•‘ˆͷΨ‘”Š‹‰Š‡”Ǥ
Šƒ– ƒ„‘—– Ž‘™ Ž‡˜‡Ž• ‘ˆ ‡š’‡…–‡† ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ǫ ‘” ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ ʹΨ ƒ› ‘– •‡‡ —”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…Ǥ  –Š‡
‘–Š‡”Šƒ†ǡƒ––Š‡–‹‡‘ˆ‘—”•—”˜‡›ǡ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽˆ‘”‡…ƒ•–‡”•™‡”‡‡š’‡…–‹‰—–…Š‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘–‘„‡
‘†‡”ƒ–‡ǡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ …‘•‡•—• Ž›‹‰ ƒ”‘—† ͳΨǤ ʹͷ  –Š‡ ‡†ǡ –Š‡ ƒ…–—ƒŽ ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ ‹ —–…Š
…‘•—‡”’”‹…‡•„‡–™‡‡’”‹ŽʹͲͲͻƒ†’”‹ŽʹͲͳͲ–—”‡†‘—––‘„‡ͳǤͳΨǤ”‘–Šƒ–’‡”•’‡…–‹˜‡ǡ
ƒ‡š’‡…–‡†’”‹…‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡‘ˆʹ؏ƒ›ƒŽ”‡ƒ†›„‡…‘•‹†‡”‡†ƒ•–‘‘Š‹‰ŠǤ•–Š‡–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†„‡–™‡‡
”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…ƒ†—”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•‹•‘–…Ž‡ƒ”ǡ™‡—•‡–™‘…—–Ǧ‘ˆˆ’‘‹–•ǣͳΨƒ†ʹΨǡ‡ƒ‹‰
–Šƒ– —”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• •–ƒ”– ƒ– ʹΨ ƒ† ͵Ψǡ ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ ʹ͸ †‡” –Š‡•‡ –™‘ †‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘•ǡ –Š‡
’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™‹–Š”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•‹•ǡ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ǡͳ͹ǤͺΨƒ†ͷͷǤͻΨǤ
‘ ‡š’Žƒ‹ –Š‡ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ”‡ƒŽ‹• ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǡ ™‡ —•‡ ’”‘„‹– ”‡‰”‡••‹‘•
™Š‡”‡–Š‡†‡’‡†‡–˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡‹•ƒ„‹ƒ”›†—›ǤŠ‹•†—›‡“—ƒŽ•ͳ‹…ƒ•‡–Š‡”‡•’‘†‡–Šƒ•
”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǡƒ†Ͳ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡ǤŠ‡‡›‡š’Žƒƒ–‘”›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡‹•–Š‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘
‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ Š‡ ˆ‹”•– ‡ƒ•—”‡ ™‡ —•‡ ‹• –Š‡ …‘””‡…– —„‡” ‘ˆ ƒ•™‡”• –‘ •–ƒ–‡‡–•
ƒ„‘—––Š‡ǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǤŠ‡•‡…‘†‡ƒ•—”‡‹•–Š‡ˆ”ƒ…–‹‘‘ˆ…‘””‡…–Ž›ƒ•™‡”‡†–”—‡ƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡
•–ƒ–‡‡–•Ǥ•…‘–”‘Ž˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ™‡‹…Ž—†‡ƒŽŽ–Š‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• –Šƒ–™‡”‡—•‡†‹ƒ„Ž‡ͺ–‘‡š’Žƒ‹
‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ ™‡ ‹…Ž—†‡ –Š‡ †‡‰”‡‡ –‘ ™Š‹…Š ”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ ™‘” ‹• ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ ‡…‘‘‹…ǡ
‘‡–ƒ”› ‘” ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹••—‡•ǡ ƒ• –Š‹• ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ› „‡ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‡š–‡– –‘ ™Š‹…Š ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…
‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ƒ”‡ˆ‘”‡†Ǥƒ„Ž‡ͻ•Š‘™•ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–•ˆ‘”ˆ‘—”’”‘„‹–”‡‰”‡••‹‘•ǤŠ‡ˆ‹”•––™‘
…‘Ž—• —•‡ –Š‡ –Š”‡•Š‘Ž† ‘ˆ ͳΨǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ –Š‡ Žƒ––‡” –™‘ …‘Ž—• —•‡ –Š‡ –Š”‡•Š‘Ž† ‘ˆ ʹΨǤ Š‡
‹…Ž—†‡† ‡†‹ƒ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ƒ”‡ –Š‘•‡ –Šƒ– ‡ƒ•—”‡ –Š‡ ‘•– ‹’‘”–ƒ– •‘—”…‡ ‘ˆ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ȋSȌǤ
‡•—Ž–•—•‹‰Qǡ‘”QHƒ†QL™‡”‡•‹‹Žƒ”Ǥ
ʹͷ  ƒ”…Š ʹͲͲͻǡ –Š‡ ‡–Š‡”Žƒ†• —”‡ƒ— ‘ˆ …‘‘‹… ƒŽ›•‹• ™ƒ• ’”‘Œ‡…–‹‰ ƒ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ ‘ˆ …‘•—‡”
’”‹…‡•‘ˆͳ؈‘”ʹͲͲͻƒ†ʹͲͳͲǤŠ‡’”‹ŽʹͲͲͻ‘•‡•—•‘”‡…ƒ•–•ˆ‘”–Š‡•‡–™‘›‡ƒ”•™‡”‡‹–Š‡•ƒ‡
”ƒ‰‡Ǥ
ʹ͸‡ƒŽ•‘‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‡†–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†•ƒ–͵Ψƒ†ͶΨǤŠ‡•‡”‡•—Ž–•™‡”‡•‹‹Žƒ”–‘–Š‘•‡™‹–Š–Š‡–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†ƒ–
ʹΨǤ
24
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
ȏ•‡”–ƒ„Ž‡ͻŠ‡”‡Ȑ
Š‡”‡‰”‡••‹‘”‡•—Ž–••Š‘™–Šƒ–‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ƒ––‡”•ǤŠ‡”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ
ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‡”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•‹•’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡‹”Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡
‘ –Š‡ ǯ• ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•Ǥ ‡•’‘†‡–• ™Š‘ ‰ƒ˜‡ ƒ Š‹‰Š‡” —„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”• ƒŽ•‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ
Š‹‰Š‡” ’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ ‰‹˜‹‰ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ˆ‹‰—”‡• ˆ‘” ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ‡š– –™‡Ž˜‡ ‘–Š• ȋ…‘Ž—• ͳ
ƒ† ͵ȌǤ –ƒ”–‹‰ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ‡ƒ —„‡” ‘ˆ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡”•ǡ ƒ ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ …‘””‡…– ƒ•™‡” ™‘—Ž†
‹…”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•™‹–Šͳ–‘ʹΨǤ‰ƒ‹ǡ–Š‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡„‡–™‡‡–”—‡
ƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•–—”•‘—––‘„‡‹’‘”–ƒ–Ǥ••Š‘™‹–Š‡•‡…‘†ƒ†ˆ‘—”–Š…‘Ž—•‘ˆƒ„Ž‡
ͻǡ‹–‹•ƒ‹Ž›–Š‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǯ•ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘ƒ•™‡”ˆƒŽ•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•…‘””‡…–Ž›–Šƒ–‹•’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›”‡Žƒ–‡†
–‘–Š‡ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‡”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ ʹ͹
—”‹‰–‘–Š‡‘–Š‡”˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ–Š‡–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†ˆ‘””‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•„‡…‘‡•”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–Ǥˆ
–Š‡–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†ˆ‘””‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•‹•ƒ–ͳΨǡ–Š‡†‡•‹”‡–‘„‡‹ˆ‘”‡†‹••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•ˆ‘”
Š‹‰Š‡”–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†•ǡ‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›ƒ†ƒ‰‡ƒ”‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ǥ•ͳΨ‹•–Š‡•–”‹…–‡•–…”‹–‡”‹‘ǡ‹–‹•’‡”Šƒ’•‘–
•—”’”‹•‹‰ –Šƒ– ’”‡…‹•‡Ž› –Š‘•‡ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ǡ ™Š‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ •–”‘‰ ‘–‹˜ƒ–‹‘ –‘ ‘„–ƒ‹ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǡ
Šƒ˜‡ƒŠ‹‰Š‡”Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘†‘ˆˆ‘”—Žƒ–‹‰”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ‘”Ž‡•••–”‹…–†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘•‘ˆ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…
‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǡ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™Š‘Šƒ˜‡‘––Š‘—‰Š–ƒ„‘—–‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›Šƒ˜‡ƒ„‘—–ƒͳͲ؎‘™‡”’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›
‘ˆ ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‹‰ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• –Šƒ –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ Šƒ˜‡ –Š‘—‰Š– ƒ„‘—– –Š‹• •—„Œ‡…–Ǥ Ž•‘ǡ –Š‡
‡Ž†‡”Ž›Šƒ˜‡ƒ•‘‡™Šƒ–Ž‘™‡”’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆˆ‘”—Žƒ–‹‰”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ‹–‹•“—‹–‡
”‡ƒ”ƒ„Ž‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡ †‡‰”‡‡ –‘ ™Š‹…Š ”‡•’‘†‡–•ǯ ™‘” ‹• ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ ‡…‘‘‹…ǡ ‘‡–ƒ”› ‘”
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹••—‡• ‹• ‡˜‡” •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ǥ –—‹–‹˜‡Ž›ǡ ™‡ ™‘—Ž† Šƒ˜‡ ‡š’‡…–‡† –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‡š–‡– –‘ ™Š‹…Š
’‡‘’Ž‡ǯ• Œ‘„• ƒ”‡ ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ ‡…‘‘‹… ‹••—‡• ™‘—Ž† Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ˆ‘” –Š‡ “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡‹”
‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ
ʹ͹ ‡ ƒŽ•‘ ”ƒ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘• ™‹–Š‘—– ‹…Ž—†‹‰ –Š‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™Š‘ ƒ•™‡”‡† ‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡
“—‡•–‹‘•ǤŠ‡”‡•—Ž–•ǡ™Š‹…Šƒ”‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡—’‘”‡“—‡•–ǡ™‡”‡•‹‹Žƒ”Ǥ
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
25
7. Conclusions and policy implications Does the general public know what central banks do? Is this kind of knowledge relevant? Based on our analysis, we would answer these questions with: ‘partially, at most’ and ‘yes, it is’. So far, research on central bank transparency and communication has focused on the impact of communication on financial markets. We report the outcomes of a survey that examines how well the general public understands the objectives of the ECB. We not only assess the respondents' understanding, but also examine whether the channels they use to obtain information about monetary policy affects their understanding. In general, more intensive use of information results in better knowledge, suggesting that the media channel may play an important and constructive role in building knowledge. There is a lot of potential to build knowledge, as we find that understanding of monetary policy is far from perfect. The average number of correct answers to eleven statements about the ECB’s objectives is less than five. One particular issue is that many respondents think that the ECB’s objective applies to individual countries. This finding is potentially worrisome. Even at times when inflation is in line with the ECB’s objective, criticism may surface in euro area countries where national inflation rates deviate from the ‘close to but below two percent’. Our survey suggests two further reasons for concern. About a quarter of the respondents express little interest in being informed about monetary policy. Our survey also shows that few individuals see clear reasons why monetary policy would affect them personally. Rather, monetary policy is considered important for the economy as a whole. Second, we find that even survey participants who believe they have adequate knowledge fail to fully understand the ECB’s objectives. Both a weak desire to be informed and unawareness of insufficient knowledge constitute important barriers to improve the public's understanding. Although central bank communication can be used as a tool to improve knowledge, it will be difficult to reach those members of the public who see no clear reasons to listen. Therefore, to overcome the various barriers, central bank communication should not only focus on content in order to improve 26
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥƒ–Š‡”ǡ‹–•Š‘—Ž†ƒŽ•‘ƒ‹–‘…‘˜‹…‡’‡‘’Ž‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹’‘”–ƒ…‡‘ˆ‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ
‘™Šƒ–‡š–‡–‹•‘™Ž‡†‰‡ƒ„‘—–‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–ˆ‘”–Š‡‰‡‡”ƒŽ’—„Ž‹…ǫ‹”•–ǡƒ•
‘–‡†„›Ž‹†‡”‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͲͺȌǡ‹–‹•–Š‡’—„Ž‹…–Šƒ–‰‹˜‡•…‡–”ƒŽ„ƒ•–Š‡‹”†‡‘…”ƒ–‹…Ž‡‰‹–‹ƒ…›ǡ
ƒ†Š‡…‡–Š‡‹”‹†‡’‡†‡…‡Ǥ‘–Š‹•‡†ǡ‹–‹•…”—…‹ƒŽ–Šƒ––Š‡’—„Ž‹…—†‡”•–ƒ†•™Šƒ–‘‡–ƒ”›
ƒ—–Š‘”‹–‹‡•†‘Ǥ—”’ƒ’‡”’”‡•‡–•ƒ•‡…‘††‹‡•‹‘–‘–Š‡…ƒ•‡ˆ‘”ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡—†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰ǡƒ•
™‡ˆ‹†‹†‹…ƒ–‹‘•–Šƒ––Š‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›Šƒ•‡…‘‘‹…‹’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ—”
”‡•—Ž–• •—‰‰‡•– –Šƒ– ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ™‹–Š „‡––‡” ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ„‘—– ‘‡–ƒ”› ’‘Ž‹…› ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡• Šƒ˜‡ ƒ
Š‹‰Š‡”’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆˆ‘”—Žƒ–‹‰”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǤŠ‹••—‰‰‡•–•–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡‹’‘”–ƒ–
”‡–—”• –‘ –Š‹• ‹† ‘ˆ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ǡ ƒ• –Š‡ ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‘ ƒ‡ ƒ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ƒ••‡••‡– ‘ˆ ˆ—–—”‡ ’”‹…‡
†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–• ‹• …”—…‹ƒŽ ˆ‘” ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž† ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ †‡…‹•‹‘Ǧƒ‹‰Ǥ ‘ ™Šƒ– ‡š–‡– ‹• –Š‡
”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ „‡–™‡‡ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ† ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• –”—Ž› …ƒ—•ƒŽǫ  –Š‡ ‘‡ Šƒ†ǡ ™‡ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ ˜‡”›
”‹…Š†ƒ–ƒ•‡–™Š‹…Š™‡‡š’Ž‘‹––‘…‘–”‘Žˆ‘”ƒ›‘„•‡”˜ƒ„Ž‡…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•Ǥ––Š‡•ƒ‡–‹‡ǡ–Š‡
‹ˆŽ—‡…‡‘ˆ—‘„•‡”˜‡†Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›…ƒ‘–„‡ˆ—ŽŽ›”—Ž‡†‘—–Ǥ–™‹ŽŽ„‡‹–‡”‡•–‹‰–‘‡š’Ž‘”‡–Š‡
…ƒ—•ƒŽ‹–›•—‰‰‡•–‡†„›‘—””‡•—Ž–•ˆ—”–Š‡”ǤŽ•‘ǡ‹–™‹ŽŽ„‡—•‡ˆ—Ž–‘•–—†›–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆ‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘
‘–Š‡””‡Ž‡˜ƒ–‡…‘‘‹…†‹‡•‹‘•Ǥ‡Ž‡ƒ˜‡–Š‡•‡‹••—‡•ˆ‘”ˆ—–—”‡”‡•‡ƒ”…ŠǤ
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References Angrist, J. and J‐S Pischke (2009), Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion Princeton: Princeton University Press. Berger, H., M. Ehrmann and M. Fratzscher (2006), Monetary policy in the media, European Central Bank Working Paper No. 679. Blinder, A.S., M. Ehrmann, M. Fratzscher, J. De Haan and D. Jansen (2008), Central bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence, Journal of Economic Literature 46(4), 910‐945. Blinder, A.S. and A.B. Krueger (2004), What does the public know about economic policy, and how does it know it?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 327‐387. Branch, W. A. (2004), The theory of rationally heterogeneous expectations: evidence from survey data on inflation expectations, Economic Journal 114, 592‐621. Branch, W. A. (2007), Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 31 (1), 245‐276. Bruine de Bruin, W., W. Vanderklaauw, J.S. Downs, B. Fischhoff, G. Topa and O. Armantier (2010), Expectations of inflation: The role of demographic variables, expectation formation, and financial literacy, The Journal of Consumer Affairs 44(2), 381‐402. Bryan, M. F. and G. Venkatu (2001), The demographics of inflation opinion surveys, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, October 2001. Cameron, A.C. and P.K. Trivedi (2007), Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Capistrán, C. and A. Timmermann (2009), Disagreement and biases in inflation expectations, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 41(2‐3), 365‐396. Carroll, C. D. (2003), Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(1), 269‐298. Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der and M. Demertzis (2009), How are inflation expectations anchored in EMU countries?, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 235. Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der and S.C.W. Eijffinger (2010a), From actual to perceived transparency: The case of the European Central Bank, Journal of Economic Psychology 31(3), 388‐399. Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der and S.C.W. Eijffinger (2010b), The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey, Chapter 9 in: Pierre Siklos, Martin Bohl and Mark Wohar (eds.), Challenges in Central Banking: The Current Institutional Environment and Forces Affecting Monetary Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press. 28
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”—‹Œ•‡ǡǤǤǤ˜ƒ†‡”ǡƒ•‡ǡǤƒ†Ǥ‡ƒƒȋʹͲͳͲȌǡ‘™—…Š†‘‡•–Š‡’—„Ž‹…‘™ƒ„‘—–
–Š‡Ʋ•‘‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹…›ǫ˜‹†‡…‡ˆ”‘ƒ•—”˜‡›‘ˆ—–…ŠŠ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•ǡ‡‡†‡”Žƒ†•…Š‡
ƒ‘”‹‰ƒ’‡”‘ǤʹͷʹǤ
‘˜‡”ǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ ”‹–•…Š‡ ƒ† Ǥ Žƒ«žŽ‡ ȋʹͲͲͻȌǡ ‹•ƒ‰”‡‡‡– ƒ‘‰ ˆ‘”‡…ƒ•–‡”• ‹ ͹ …‘—–”‹‡•ǡ
’—„Ž‹•Š‡†ƒ—•…”‹’–Ǥ—‰—•–ʹͲͲͻǤ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ƒ–ǣŠ––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ•Žƒ…ƒŽ‡Ǥ…‘Ȁ”‡•‡ƒ”…ŠǤŠ–ŽǤ
—‘—…Š‡Žǡ Ǥ Ǥ ƒ† Ǥ Ǥ —…ƒ ȋͳͻͺ͵Ȍǡ •‹‰ •ƒ’Ž‡ •—”˜‡› ™‡‹‰Š–• ‹ —Ž–‹’Ž‡ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘
ƒƒŽ›•‡• ‘ˆ •–”ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡† •ƒ’Ž‡•ǡ Journal of the American Statistical Association ͹ͺ ȋ͵ͺ͵Ȍǡ ͷ͵ͷǦ
ͷͶ͵Ǥ
—”‘’‡ƒ ‘‹••‹‘ ȋʹͲͳͲȌǡ —”‘’‡ƒ•ǯ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ˆ ‡…‘‘‹… ‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•Ǥ Special
Eurobarometer ͵ʹ͵Ǥ ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ ƒ–ǣ Š––’ǣȀȀ‡…Ǥ‡—”‘’ƒǤ‡—Ȁ’—„Ž‹…̴‘’‹‹‘Ȁƒ”…Š‹˜‡•Ȁ‡„•Ȁ
‡„•̴͵ʹ͵̴‡Ǥ’†ˆǤ
”ƒ„‡ǡ ǤǤǡ Ǥ ƒŠƒ™‹ ƒ† Ǥ ‡‰‹›ƒ ȋʹͲͲͻȌǡ ˆ‘”‹‰ …‹–‹œ‡•ǣ ‘™ ’‡‘’Ž‡ ™‹–Š †‹ˆˆ‡”‡–
Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘’”‘…‡••–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘ǡ‡™•’ƒ’‡”•ǡƒ†™‡„‡™•ǡJournalofBroadcasting&
ElectronicMediaͷ͵ȋͳȌǡͻͲǦͳͳͳǤ
–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘‡–ƒ”› —† ȋʹͲͲͲȌǡ Supporting document to the code of good practices on
transparencyinmonetaryandfinancialpolicies,ƒ•Š‹‰–‘ǣǤ
‘—‰ǡǤȋͳͻͺͳȌǡ‡”…‡‹˜‡†ƒ†‡š’‡…–‡†”ƒ–‡•‘ˆ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‹™‡†‡ǡAmericanEconomicReview
͹ͳȋͷȌǡͻ͸ͳǦͻ͸ͺǤ
—•–‡”ǡ ǤǤ ȋͳͻͺͳȌǡ  ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˜‹‡™ ‘ˆ …‘•—‡” •’‡†‹‰ ’”‘•’‡…–•ǡ Journal of Economic
Psychologyͳǡͺ͹ǦͳͲ͵Ǥ
ƒ–‘ƒǡ
Ǥȋͳͻ͹ͷȌǡPsychologicalEconomicsǤ‡™‘”ǣŽ•‡˜‹‡”Ǥ
‘”ǡǤǤƒ†ǤǤ
”ƒ—„ƒ”†ȋͳͻͻͶȌǡšƒ’Ž‡•‘ˆ†‹ˆˆ‡”‹‰™‡‹‰Š–‡†ƒ†—™‡‹‰Š–‡†‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ˆ”‘
ƒ•ƒ’Ž‡•—”˜‡›ǡTheAmericanStatisticianͶͻǡʹͻͳǦʹͻͷǤ
ƒ„‡”–ǡ Ǥ ȋͳͻͻʹȌǡ ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡† ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ ™‹–Š ƒ ƒ’’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘ –‘ †‡ˆ‡…–• ‹
ƒ—ˆƒ…–—”‹‰ǡTechnometrics͵ͶǡͳǦͳͶǤ
—•ƒ”†‹ǡ Ǥ ƒ† Ǥ Ǥ ‹–…Š‡ŽŽ ȋʹͲͲ͹Ȍǡ ƒ„› „‘‘‡” ”‡–‹”‡‡– •‡…—”‹–›ǣ –Š‡ ”‘Ž‡ ‘ˆ ’Žƒ‹‰ǡ
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽŽ‹–‡”ƒ…›ǡƒ†Š‘—•‹‰™‡ƒŽ–ŠǡJournalofMonetaryEconomicsͷͶȋͳȌǡʹͲͷǦʹʹͶǤ
ƒ‰‡‡ǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ Ǥ ‘„„ ƒ† Ǥ Ǥ —”„‹†‰‡ ȋͳͻͻͺȌǡ  –Š‡ —•‡ ‘ˆ •ƒ’Ž‹‰ ™‡‹‰Š–• ™Š‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‹‰
”‡‰”‡••‹‘‘†‡Ž•™‹–Š•—”˜‡›†ƒ–ƒǡJournalofEconometricsͺͶǡʹͷͳǦʹ͹ͳǤ
ƒ‹™ǡǤ
Ǥƒ†Ǥ‡‹•ȋʹͲͲʹȌǡ–‹…›‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘˜‡”•—••–‹…›’”‹…‡•ǣƒ’”‘’‘•ƒŽ–‘”‡’Žƒ…‡–Š‡
‡™‡›‡•‹ƒŠ‹ŽŽ‹’•—”˜‡ǡQuarterlyJournalofEconomicsͳͳ͹ȋͶȌǡͳʹͻͷǦͳ͵ʹͺǤ
—ŽŽƒŠ›ǡ Ǥ ȋͳͻͺ͸Ȍǡ ’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† –‡•–‹‰ ‘ˆ •‘‡ ‘†‹ˆ‹‡† …‘—– †ƒ–ƒ ‘†‡Ž•ǡ Journal of
Econometrics͵͵ǡ͵ͶͳǦ͵͸ͷǤ
ˆ‡ˆˆ‡”ƒǡ Ǥ ȋͳͻͻ͵Ȍǡ Š‡ ”‘Ž‡ ‘ˆ •ƒ’Ž‹‰ ™‡‹‰Š–• ™Š‡ ‘†‡Ž‹‰ •—”˜‡› †ƒ–ƒǡ International
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StatisticalReview͸ͳȋʹȌǡ͵ͳ͹Ǧ͵͵͹Ǥ
‘‘‹ŒǡǤǤǤ˜ƒǡǤ—•ƒ”†‹ƒ†ǤŽ‡••‹‡ȋʹͲͲͻȌǡ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽŽ‹–‡”ƒ…›ƒ†”‡–‹”‡‡–’Žƒ‹‰‹–Š‡
‡–Š‡”Žƒ†•ǡ‡‡†‡”Žƒ†•…Š‡ƒ‘”‹‰ƒ’‡”‘Ǥʹ͵ͳǤ
‘—Ž‡Ž‡•ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ǡ Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‘—• ˆ‘”‡…ƒ•– ‡””‘”• ƒ† …‘•—’–‹‘ǣ ‹…”‘
‡˜‹†‡…‡ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ‹…Š‹‰ƒ ‘•—‡” ‡–‹‡– •—”˜‡›•ǡ Journal of Money, Credit, and
Banking͵͸ȋͳȌǡ͵ͻǦ͹ʹǤ
¡”‡”›†ǡǤǤƒ†ǤƒŠŽ—†ȋͳͻͺͷȌǡInflationaryexpectationsǤǣǤ”ƒ†•–¡––‡”‡Ǥ‹”…ŠŽ‡”ǡ
…‘‘‹…•›…Š‘Ž‘‰›Ǥ‹œǣ”ƒ—‡”ǡ͵͵ͶǤ
‹‡ŽƒǡǤȋʹͲͲͺȌǡEconometricAnalysisofCountDataǤͷ–Š‡†‹–‹‘Ǥ‡”Ž‹ǣ’”‹‰‡”‡”Žƒ‰Ǥ
‹•Š‹’ǡǤƒ†Ǥƒ†„‹ŽŽȋͳͻͻͶȌǡƒ’Ž‹‰™‡‹‰Š–•ƒ†”‡‰”‡••‹‘ƒƒŽ›•‹•ǡSociologicalMethods&
Researchʹ͵ȋʹȌǡʹ͵ͲǦʹͷ͹Ǥ
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FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1. Impact of crisis on respondents Q1. Has the current economic and financial crisis had negative consequences for you, or do you expect such consequences in the near future?
I don’t know Yes, very much
6%
8%
No
17%
Yes, somewhat
38%
Hardly
31%
Note: N=1659. Figure 2. Working environment of respondents Q2. Does (or did) your work relate to economic, monetary or financial issues? Yes, almost every day
Often, but not 9%
on a daily basis
6%
Never
42%
Sometimes
14%
Hardly
29%
Note: N=1659. ECB
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Figure3.SelfǦdeclaredideologicalposition
͵Ǥ‘™™‘—Ž†›‘—†‡•…”‹„‡›‘—”’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ‘”‹‡–ƒ–‹‘ǫ
ȋ›‘—ƒ›…Š‘‘•‡‘”‡–Šƒ‘‡‘’–‹‘Ȍ
‹„‡”ƒŽ
‘…‹ƒŽ‹•–
Š”‹•–‹ƒ†‡‘…”ƒ–
‘•‡”˜ƒ–‹˜‡
”‘‰”‡••‹˜‡
Šƒ˜‡ǯ––Š‘—‰Š–ƒ„‘—–‹–
›‡•
–Š‡”ǡƒ‡Ž›ǥ
‘
ͲΨ
ͳͲΨ
ʹͲΨ
͵ͲΨ
ͶͲΨ
ͷͲΨ
͸ͲΨ
͹ͲΨ
ͺͲΨ
ͻͲΨ ͳͲͲΨ
‘–‡ǣαͳ͸ͷͻǤ
Figure4.Understanding:Distributionofanswersperquestion
ͳǣ’”‹…‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›
ʹǣ…‘•–ƒ–’”‹…‡•
͵ǣŽ‘™—‡’Ž‘›‡–
Ͷǣ—‡’Ž‘›‡–ͷΨ
ͷǣŠ‹‰Š‰”‘™–Š
͸ǣ‰”‘™–ŠʹΨ
͹ǣ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ʹΨ
ͺǣ…‘•–ƒ–”ƒ–‡•
ͻǣ‡—”‘ƒ”‡ƒ
‘””‡…–
ͳͲǣ…‘—–”‹‡•
ƒŽ•‡
ͳͳǣ‡†‹—–‡”
†‘Ʋ–‘™
ͲΨ
ʹͲΨ
ͶͲΨ
͸ͲΨ
ͺͲΨ
ͳͲͲΨ
‘–‡ǣαͳ͸ͷͻǤŠ‡Š‘”‹œ‘–ƒŽ„ƒ”•†‡‘–‡–Š‡’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ȋ•‘Ž‹†Ȍƒ†‹…‘””‡…–ȋ…”‘••‡†Ȍƒ•™‡”•
–‘–Š‡‡Ž‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•‘–Š‡ǯ•ƒ‹‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǤŠ‡…Š‡…‡”‡†„ƒ”•†‡‘–‡–Š‡’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ
”‡•’‘†‡–•™Š‘ƒ•™‡”‡†Ǯ†‘ǯ–‘™ǯǤ
32
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500
400
Frequency
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
Frequency
300
400
500
Figure5.Correctanswerstotrueandfalsestatements
0
.2
.4
.6
prop_true
.8
1
0
.2
.4
.6
prop_false
.8
1
‘–‡ǣŠ‡Š‹•–‘‰”ƒ••Š‘™–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•–‘–”—‡ȋŽ‡ˆ–’ƒ‡ŽȌƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡ȋ”‹‰Š–’ƒ‡ŽȌ
•–ƒ–‡‡–•ǤŠ‡˜‡”–‹…ƒŽƒš‹•‡ƒ•—”‡•–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ”‡•’‘†‡–•’‡”…ƒ–‡‰‘”›ǡ–Š‡Š‘”‹œ‘–ƒŽƒš‹•‡ƒ•—”‡•
–Š‡ˆ”ƒ…–‹‘‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•Ǥ”—‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•™‡”‡‹–‡•ͳǡ͹ǡͻƒ†ͳͳ‘ˆ“—‡•–‹‘͹‘ˆ‘—”•—”˜‡›ǤŠ‡
”‡ƒ‹‹‰•‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•™‡”‡ˆƒŽ•‡Ǥ
—„‡”‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•
Figure6.ActualversusselfǦdeclaredknowledge
ͳͲ
ͺ
͸
Ͷ
ʹ
Ͳ
˜‡”›’‘‘”ȋͳͷǤʹΨȌ
’‘‘”ȋ͵ͷǤ͸ΨȌ
‡—–”ƒŽȋ͵ͻǤͳΨȌ
‰‘‘†ȋ͹Ǥ͹ΨȌ
˜‡”›‰‘‘†ȋͲǤͷΨȌ
‡ŽˆǦ†‡…Žƒ”‡†‘™Ž‡†‰‡
‘–‡ǣαͳ͸ʹͺǤ‡•’‘•‡•Šƒ”‡•„‡–™‡‡’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•ȋͳǤͻΨ‘ˆ”‡•’‘†‡–•†‹†‘–”‡’‘”–•‡ŽˆǦƒ••‡••‡–ȌǤ
Š‡…‹”…Ž‡•†‡‘–‡–Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡—„‡”‘ˆ…‘””‡…–“—‡•–‹‘•ǡ–Š‡†‘––‡†Ž‹‡•–Š‡ͻͷΨ…‘ˆ‹†‡…‡‹–‡”˜ƒŽǤ
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Frequency
0
100
200
300
Figure7.Understanding:Distributionofnumberofcorrectlyansweredquestions
0
5
10
Number of correctly answered questions
‘–‡ǣαͳ͸ͷͻǤŠ‡Š‹•–‘‰”ƒ•Š‘™•–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ…‘””‡…–ƒ•™‡”•–‘‘—”‡Ž‡˜‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•”‡‰ƒ”†‹‰–Š‡
ǯ•ƒ‹‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ’”‹…‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›Ǥ
0
100
Frequency
200
300
400
500
Figure8.Inflationexpectationsofsurveyparticipants
0
2
4
6
Price increase in percentage points
8
10
‘–‡ǣ Š‹• ‰”ƒ’Š •Š‘™• –Š‡ †‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ‹ ‘—” •—”˜‡›Ǥ ˆ –Š‡
ͳ͸ͷͻ ”‡•’‘†‡–• –‘ ‘—” •—”˜‡›ǡ ͳ͵͹Ͳ ƒ•™‡”‡† –Š‡ ”‡‰—Žƒ” “—‡•–‹‘ ‘ ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ Š‡
’”‡…‹•‡™‘”†‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡“—‡•–‹‘‹•ǣǮWhatdoyouthinkisthemostlikelypriceincrease(increaseofconsumer
prices)overthenexttwelvemonths?ǯǤŠ‡”‡•’‘•‡•™‡”‡‰‹˜‡‹’”‹ŽʹͲͲͻǤ‡•’‘†‡–•™‡”‡ƒ•‡†–‘
”‡’‘”–ƒ–—”ƒŽ—„‡”•„‡–™‡‡‘‡ƒ†–‡Ǥ
34
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
Table1.Summarystatistics
‡šȋ؏ƒŽ‡•Ȍ
‰‡
‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•‹œ‡
ƒ”–‡”ȋͳαŽ‹˜‹‰–‘‰‡–Š‡”™‹–Š’ƒ”–‡”ǡͲα‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Ȍ
‹–›™‡‹‰Š–‡†ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ȋͳα”—”ƒŽǡͷŠ‹‰ŠŽ›—”„ƒ‹œ‡†Ȍ
‘–ŠŽ›‰”‘••Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†‹…‘‡ȋȗͳͲͲͲ‡—”‘•Ȍ
†—…ƒ–‹‘ȋͲαŽ‘™ǡͳαŠ‹‰ŠȌ
—”˜‡›‡ƒ
ͷͷǤͳΨȗȗȗ
ͷʹǤ͸ȗȗȗ
ʹǤͷȗȗȗ
‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‡ƒ
ͲǤ͹ͺȗȗȗ
ʹǤͻͻ
͵Ǥ͹͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͸ʹ
͵ǤͲ͵
ͶǤ͸ͺ
ͶͻǤͲΨ
Ͷ͸Ǥͻ
ʹǤʹ
ͲǤ͵͸ȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͷ
’”‘’‘”–‹‘†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•”ƒ‰‡ˆ”‘ǦͲǤͲ͵–‘ͲǤͲͳ
‡‰‹‘
‘—”…‡ˆ‘”’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‡ƒ•ǣ–ƒ–‹•–‹…•‡–Š‡”Žƒ†•ȋȌ†ƒ–ƒˆ‘”ʹͲͲͻǤ
‘–‡•ǣ
ͳȌ ‘”˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡••‡šƒ†ƒ‰‡ǡ™‡ƒ”‡ƒ„Ž‡–‘—•‡•’‡…‹ˆ‹…†ƒ–ƒ‘–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‘˜‡”ͳ͸Ǥ‘”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡǦ
†ƒ–ƒ…‘˜‡”ͳͷǦ͸ͷ›‡ƒ”‘Ž†Ǥ‘”‘–Š‡”˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ™‡—•‡†ƒ–ƒ‘–Š‡–‘–ƒŽ’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘Ǥ‘”‹…‘‡ǡ†ƒ–ƒ™ƒ•
‘Ž›ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡›‡–ˆ‘”ʹͲͲͺǤ
ʹȌ †—…ƒ–‹‘‹•…‘†‡†ƒ•ͳ‹ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”˜‘…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ†Ȁ‘”—‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘™ƒ•Š‹‰Š‡•–†‡‰”‡‡ǡ
ƒ†Ͳ‹ˆ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Ǥ
͵Ȍ ‘””‡‰‹‘ǡ™‡—•‡–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ•—”˜‡›’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•Ž‹˜‹‰‹’”‘˜‹…‡š‹—•–Š‡ƒ…–—ƒŽ’”‘’‘”–‹‘
‘ˆ’‡‘’Ž‡ƒ‰‡†ͳͷ›‡ƒ”•‘”‘Ž†‡”‹’”‘˜‹…‡šǤ
ͶȌ ȗȗȗ†‡‘–‡••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•ƒ––Š‡ͳ؎‡˜‡Ž„‡–™‡‡•—”˜‡›ƒ†’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‡ƒ•Ǥ
Table2.ImportanceofbeinginformedonthepoliciesoftheEuropeanCentralBank
”‡“—‡…› ‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ——Žƒ–‹˜‡
‘–‹’‘”–ƒ–ƒ–ƒŽŽ
͹ͳ
ͶǤ͵
ͶǤ͵
‘–˜‡”›‹’‘”–ƒ–
͵͸͸
ʹʹǤͳ
ʹ͸Ǥ͵
‘‡™Šƒ–‹’‘”–ƒ–
͹ͻ͹
ͶͺǤͲ
͹ͶǤͶ
‡”›‹’‘”–ƒ–
ʹͶ͹
ͳͶǤͻ
ͺͻǤ͵
š–”‡‡Ž›‹’‘”–ƒ–
ͷͺ
͵Ǥͷ
ͻʹǤͺ
†‘̵–‘™
ͳʹͲ
͹Ǥʹ
ͳͲͲǤͲ
‘–‡ǣ αͳ͸ͷͻǤ Š‹• –ƒ„Ž‡ •Š‘™• –Š‡ †‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒ•™‡”• –‘ “—‡•–‹‘ ͷ ‘ˆ ‘—” “—‡•–‹‘ƒ‹”‡ǣ ǮHow
importantisittoyoutobewellinformedonthepoliciesoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)?ǯǤ
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
35
Table3.Reasonswhyrespondentswanttobeinformed
’‘Ž‹…›ƒˆˆ‡…–•›
’‡”•‘ƒŽ‘”ˆƒ‹Ž›‹…‘‡
’‘Ž‹…›‹ˆŽ—‡…‡•Š‘™
—…Š›‘‡›…ƒ„—›
’‘Ž‹…›ƒˆˆ‡…–•›
„—•‹‡••ȀŒ‘„Ȁ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘
’‘Ž‹…›ƒˆˆ‡…–•–Š‡˜ƒŽ—‡
‘ˆ›•–‘…•‘”‘–Š‡”
‹˜‡•–‡–•
’‘Ž‹…›‹•‹’‘”–ƒ–ˆ‘”
–Š‡‡…‘‘›
Œ—•–Ž‹‡–‘‡‡’‹ˆ‘”‡†
™‡ŽŽ
‘–‡ǣαͳͶ͸ͺǤ
ȋ„Ȍ
ȋƒȌ
ȋ…Ȍ
ȋ†Ȍ
ȋ‡Ȍ
‘–˜‡”› ‘‡™Šƒ–
‘–
‡”›
š–”‡‡Ž›
‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ–
ƒ–ƒŽŽ
ͻǤͲΨ
ͳͺǤͻΨ
͵ʹǤͶΨ
ͳ͸ǤͲΨ
ͶǤͲΨ
ȋˆȌ
†‘̵–
‘™
ͳͻǤͺΨ
ƒ
ȋ„ƒ•‡†‘
…Ϊ†Ϊ‡‘”
†Ϊ‡Ȍ
Ͷ
ͶǤͺΨ
ͳʹǤ͵Ψ
͵ͶǤ͵Ψ
ʹ͸ǤͲΨ
ͷǤͷΨ
ͳ͹ǤͲΨ
͵
ʹ͸ǤͻΨ
ͳͻǤͳΨ
ʹͲǤͳΨ
ͳͲǤͲΨ
ʹǤ͹Ψ
ʹͳǤʹΨ
͸
ʹ͸ǤͶΨ
ͳ͸ǤͲΨ
ʹͲǤͷΨ
ͳͶǤͲΨ
ͶǤͳΨ
ͳͻǤͲΨ
ͷ
ͳǤͺΨ
ͶǤͺΨ
ʹͳǤͻΨ
͵ͺǤͺΨ
ͳͺǤͳΨ
ͳͶǤ͸Ψ
ͳ
ͷǤ͹Ψ
ͳͶǤͶΨ
͵ʹǤͶΨ
ʹͷǤͳΨ
ͳͳǤͲΨ
ͳͳǤ͵Ψ
ʹ
Table4.MostimportantsourceofinformationontheECB
”‘’‘”–‹‘
–†Ǥ””Ǥ
‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘
ͲǤͶʹ
ͲǤͲͳ
ƒ†‹‘
ͲǤͲͷ
ͲǤͲͳ
‡™•’ƒ’‡”•
ͲǤ͵͵
ͲǤͲͳ
ƒ‰ƒœ‹‡•
ͲǤͲʹ
ͲǤͲͲ
–‡”‡–
ͲǤͲͷ
ͲǤͲͳ
”‹‡†•Ȁ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡•Ȁ…‘ŽŽ‡ƒ‰—‡•
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲͲ
†‘̵–—•‡ƒ›•‘—”…‡•‘’‘Ž‹…›
ͲǤͲͺ
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲͶ
†‘̵–‘™
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲͳ
–Š‡”
ͲǤͲͲ
‘–‡ǣαͳͶͲͲǤ
36
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
ͻͷΨ‘ˆ‹†‡…‡–‡”˜ƒŽ
ȋͲǤ͵ͻǡͲǤͶͶȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶǡͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤ͵ͲǡͲǤ͵ͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳǡͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶǡͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲͲǡͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͹ǡͲǤͳͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵ǡͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲǡͲǤͲͳȌ
Table5.DeterminantsofknowledgeaboutECBmonetarypolicy
ȋͳȌ
ȋʹȌ
ȋ͵Ȍ
ȋͶȌ
S
Q
QHandQL
‘‹••‘
‘‰‹–
‘‹••‘
‘‰‹–
‘‹••‘
‘‰‹–
‘‰‹–
‘‹••‘
Desiretobeinformed(D) ͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͺͲȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͷ͹ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤ͸ͺȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤ͸͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͳͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͳͺȌ
SelfǦinterest(SI1)
ͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳ͵ȗȗȗ ͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͻȗȗȗ ͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͳͲȗ
ͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳʹȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
Noideology(ID)
ǦͲǤͳʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͺ͸ȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ ͲǤ͸͹ȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͷʹȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ ͲǤ͹ͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤʹͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤʹͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤʹͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤʹͶȌ
Education(ED)
ͲǤͲ͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶ͵ȗ
ͲǤͲͷȗȗ
ͲǤʹ͹
ͲǤͲ͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹʹ
ͲǤͲ͹ȗȗ
ͲǤ͵͵
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹͶȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤ͵ʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹͺȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹ͸Ȍ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
Age
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ͲǤͲͲ
ͲǤͲͲ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
Male
ͲǤͳʹȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͳͷ
ͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͲ
ͲǤͳͲȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͶ
ͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹͺȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹͶȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲ͹ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͺȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲ͹ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͺȗȗȗ
Partner
ͲǤʹͺ
ͲǤʹͻ
ͲǤ͵ͷ
ͲǤʹͺ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤʹ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤ͵ͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤ͵ͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹ͸Ȍ
Status
ͲǤͲʹȗȗ ǦͲǤ͵ͺȗȗȗ ͲǤͲʹȗȗ
ǦͲǤʹ͸ȗȗ
ͲǤͲʹȗ
ǦͲǤ͵ͳȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲʹȗ
ǦͲǤ͵ʹȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͳͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͳ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͳʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͳͲȌ
ǦͲǤͳͺȗȗ
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͳͳ
ͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͳʹ
ͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͳͷȗ
City
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͹Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲͺȌ
SorQ:
ͲǤͲ͸
TV
ǦͲǤ͹Ͷȗȗ
ͲǤͲ͵
ǦͲǤ͵Ͷ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤ͵ͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹͶȌ
Radio
ͲǤͲ͵
ǦͲǤͲ͸
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹ͵Ȍ
ǦͳǤͷͷȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤ͹͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͺȗ
Newspapers
ͲǤͲ͵ȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤ͵ͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹͲȌ
Internet
ͲǤͲʹ
ͲǤͳͷ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤ͵ͶȌ
Friendsandrelatives
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ǦͲǤͲͷ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹͶȌ
ǦͲǤͲ͵
ǦͲǤͳ͹
Magazines
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤ͵ͷȌ
ͲǤͳ͵ȗȗ ǦͳǤͷͺȗȗȗ
Other
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͷʹȌ
ͲǤʹ͵ȗȗȗ
QH
ǦͲǤ͹ͺ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ȋͳǤ͵͹Ȍ
QL
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ͳǤ͸Ͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͷͶȌ
Constant
ͳǤ͸ʹȗȗȗ ʹǤͲͺȗȗȗ ͳǤ͸ʹȗȗȗ
ͳǤͷ͸ȗȗȗ ʹǤͻͷȗȗȗ ͳǤ͸ͻȗȗȗ
ͳǤʹͷ
ͲǤͲͶ
ȋͲǤͲ͹Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲͺȌ
ȋͲǤͲͺȌ
ȋͲǤͺʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲͺȌ
ȋͲǤͷͻȌ
ȋͲǤ͹ͻȌ
ȋͲǤͺͲȌ
ͳͶͻͳ
ͳͶͻͳ
ͳ͵ͳͺ
ͳ͵ͳͺ
ͳ͵͵ͺ
ͳ͵͵ͺ
ͳͶͷʹ
„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•
ͳͶͷʹ
ͲǤͳͺ
ͲǤͳ͹
ͲǤʹͲ
ͲǤͳͻ
…‡Ž˜‡›Ƭƒ˜‘‹ƒ̵•
•‡—†‘ʹ
‘–‡ǣ ‘„—•– •–ƒ†ƒ”† ‡””‘”• ƒ”‡ •Š‘™ ‹ ’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǥ ȗȗȗ ’δͲǤͲͳǡ ȗȗ ’δͲǤͲͷǡ ȗ ’δͲǤͳǤ Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ ”‡’‘”–•
’ƒ”ƒ‡–‡”‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ˆ‘”ˆ‘—”œ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡†‘‹••‘‘†‡Ž•Ǥ‘”‡ƒ…Š‘†‡Žǡ–Š‡”‡‹•ƒ•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡…‘Ž—™‹–Š
–Š‡ ”‡•—Ž–• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ ƒ† –Š‡ Ž‘‰‹– ”‡‰”‡••‹‘Ǥ ‘” –Š‡ Ǧ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ‹ …‘Ž— ʹǡ ™‡ Šƒ˜‡
…‘ŽŽ‡…–‡†˜ƒ”‹‘—••‘—”…‡•‹–‘–Š‡…ƒ–‡‰‘”›Ǯ‘–Š‡”ǯǡ„‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆ–Š‡Ž‘™—„‡”‘ˆ‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•ˆ‘”‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ
…ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•Ǥ
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
37
Table6.MarginaleffectsbasedonzeroǦinflatedPoissonmodels
ȋͳȌ
ȋʹȌ
ȋ͵Ȍ
ȋͶȌ
S
Q
QHandQL
Desiretobeinformed(D)
ͲǤ͵͸ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͻ
ͲǤͳͶ
ͲǤͳͶ
ȋͲǤͲͺȌ
ȋͲǤͲͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲͻȌ
ȋͲǤͲͻȌ
SelfǦinterest(SI1)
ͲǤͳͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͳͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͳʹȗȗȗ
ͲǤͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
Noideology(ID)
ǦͲǤͻ͵ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤ͹ͷȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤ͸͹ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤ͹ͻȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤʹͲȌ
ȋͲǤʹʹȌ
ȋͲǤʹͲȌ
ȋͲǤʹͲȌ
Education(ED)
ͲǤͳ͹
ͲǤʹʹ
ͲǤ͵Ͳȗ
ͲǤʹ͵
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ǦͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ
Age
ǦͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
Male
ͲǤ͸ͷȗȗȗ
ͲǤͷ͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͷ͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͷ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ǦͲǤͷʹȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͶͶȗȗȗ
Partner
ǦͲǤͶͷȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͶͺȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͳ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
Status
ͲǤʹ͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͳͺȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͲȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͹Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͹Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͹Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͹Ȍ
ͲǤͳʹȗȗ
City
ͲǤͲ͸
ͲǤͲͻȗ
ͲǤͲͻȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
SorQ:
ͲǤͷʹȗȗ
TV
ͲǤʹ͹ȗȗ
ȋͲǤͳͷȌ
ȋͲǤͳ͵Ȍ
Radio
ͲǤͳ͸
ȋͲǤͳͳȌ
ͲǤͺͲȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵ͻȗȗȗ
Newspapers
ȋͲǤʹ͹Ȍ
ȋͲǤͳʹȌ
Internet
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͳʹȌ
Friendsandrelatives
ǦͲǤͲͻ
ȋͲǤͳ͸Ȍ
ͲǤͲͷ
Magazines
ȋͲǤͳͶȌ
ͳǤͲ͹ȗȗȗ
Other
ȋͲǤ͵ͲȌ
QH
ͳǤͶͲȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͶͻȌ
QL
ǦͲǤͷ͵ȗ
ȋͲǤ͵ͲȌ
‘–‡ǣ ‘„—•– •–ƒ†ƒ”† ‡””‘”• ƒ”‡ •Š‘™ ‹ ’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǥ ȗȗȗ ’δͲǤͲͳǡ ȗȗ ’δͲǤͲͷǡ ȗ ’δͲǤͳǤ Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ ”‡’‘”–•
ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–•‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‡†ƒ–•ƒ’Ž‡‡ƒ•ˆ‘”–Š‡ˆ‘—”œ‡”‘Ǧ‹ˆŽƒ–‡†‘‹••‘‘†‡Ž••Š‘™‹ƒ„Ž‡ͺǤ
38
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
Table7.Determinantsofknowledge:thedifferencebetweentrueandfalsestatements
Desiretobeinformed(D)
SelfǦinterest(SI1)
Noideology(ID)
Education(ED)
Age
Male
Partner
Status
City
SorQ:
Tv
Radio
Newspapers
Internet
Friendsandrelatives
Magazines
Other
QH
QL
Constant
„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•
†Œ—•–‡†ʹ
ȋͳȌ
”—‡
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ǦͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲʹ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ͲǤͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ͲǤͳͷȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ͲǤ͵͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ͳ͵ͳͺ
S
ȋʹȌ
ƒŽ•‡
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ǦͲǤͲͷȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲ͵
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲ͹ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͶ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ͲǤͲͺȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ͲǤʹ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ͳ͵ͳͺ
ȋ͵Ȍ
”—‡
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ǦͲǤͳʹȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲʹ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲʹ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͶȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤʹͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ͳ͵͵ͺ
ȋͶȌ
ƒŽ•‡
ͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ǦͲǤͲͶȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͶȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲʹ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͷȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ǦͲǤͲʹ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͳ͹ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ͳ͵͵ͺ
ƒ†
ȋͷȌ
ȋ͸Ȍ
”—‡
ƒŽ•‡
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ǦͲǤͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲ͵ȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͲ͸ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͳȗ
ͲǤͲͳȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͳͲȗ
ͲǤͳͲȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ǦͲǤͳʹȗȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͷ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͵Ȍ
ͲǤͶ͸ȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͺȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ͳͶͷʹ
ͳͶͷʹ
ͲǤͲͻ
ͲǤͳʹ
ͲǤͳ͵
ͲǤͳʹ
ͲǤͳʹ
ͲǤͳʹ
‘–‡ǣ‘„—•–•–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǥȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗ’δͲǤͳŠ‡–ƒ„Ž‡”‡’‘”–•”‡•—Ž–•ˆ‘”
”‡‰”‡••‹‘•ǡ™Š‡”‡–Š‡ˆ”ƒ…–‹‘•‘ˆ…‘””‡…–Ž›ƒ•™‡”‡†–”—‡ƒ†ˆƒŽ•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•ƒ„‘—––Š‡ǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•
ƒ”‡–Š‡†‡’‡†‡–˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ǥ
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
39
Table8.Summarystatisticsforthelevelofinflationexpectations
‡ƒ
–ƒ†ƒ”†
†‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘
—„‡”‘ˆ
‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•
—ŽŽ•ƒ’Ž‡
ʹǤ͹͵
ͳǤ͸Ͷ
ͳ͵͹Ͳ
”‡ƒ†‘™„›ǣ
Age
‘—‰‡”–ŠƒʹͲ
͵Ǥͳʹ
ͳǤ͹ͺ
͵͵
‡–™‡‡ʹͲƒ†͵ͻ
ʹǤ͸ͳ
ͳǤͷ͸
ʹ͹Ͷ
‡–™‡‡ͶͲƒ†͸Ͷ
͹ͳͻ
ʹǤ͸ͻ
ͳǤ͸Ͳ
‡–™‡‡͸ͷƒ†͹ͻ
͵ͳ͸
ʹǤͺ͵
ͳǤ͹ͷ
ͺͲ‘”‘Ž†‡”
͵ǤͲͶ
ʹǤͲͲ
ʹͺ
Gender**
ƒŽ‡
ʹǤ͸Ͷ
ͳǤͷ͵
͹͹ͳ
‡ƒŽ‡
ʹǤͺ͵
ͳǤ͹͹
ͷͻͻ
Partner
‹˜‹‰™‹–Šƒ’ƒ”–‡”
ʹǤ͹Ͷ
ͳǤ͸͸
ͳͲ͸ͳ
‘–Ž‹˜‹‰™‹–Šƒ’ƒ”–‡”
ʹǤ͸ͺ
ͳǤͷͻ
͵Ͳͻ
Income
‘™‹…‘‡
ʹǤͺͻ
ͳǤͺͳ
͸Ͳͷ
‡†‹—‹…‘‡
ʹǤ͸͵
ͳǤͶ͸
͸Ͳͳ
‹‰Š‹…‘‡
ʹǤͶͺ
ͳǤͷͷ
ͳ͸Ͷ
Education**
‘Š‹‰Š‡”˜‘…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‘”—‹˜‡”•‹–›
ʹǤͺͳ
ͳǤ͹ʹ
ͺ͹Ͷ
‹‰Š‡”˜‘…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‘”—‹˜‡”•‹–›
Ͷͻͳ
ʹǤͷͺ
ͳǤͶͺ
SocialǦeconomicstatus
ͳȋαŽ‘™‡•–Ȍ
ͶǤ͵ʹ
ʹǤͷͺ
ͳͻ
ʹ
ʹǤͻͳ
ͳǤ͹͸
ʹͻ͹
͵
ʹǤ͹͹
ͳǤ͹Ͳ
͵͵͵
Ͷ
ʹǤͷͻ
ͳǤͶͲ
ͶͶͳ
ͷȋαŠ‹‰Š‡•–Ȍ
ʹǤͷ͹
ͳǤ͸Ͷ
ʹ͹͸
City
ͳȋαŽ‡ƒ•–—”„ƒ‹•‡†Ȍ
ʹǤͺ͵
ͳǤͺ͹
ʹʹͶ
ʹ
ʹǤͷ͸
ͳǤ͵ͺ
͵ͳͳ
ͳǤͷʹ
ʹͺͻ
͵
ʹǤ͸͹
ʹǤͻͶ
ͳǤͻʹ
͵ʹͶ
Ͷ
ʹͳͷ
ͷȋᏑ•–—”„ƒ‹•‡†Ȍ
ʹǤ͸Ͳ
ͳǤͶ͵
Desiretobeinformed
ͳȋαŽ‘™‡•–Ȍ
͵ǤʹͲ
ʹǤͲͳ
ͷͻ
ʹ
ʹǤͺ͸
ͳǤ͹Ͷ
ʹͺͻ
͵
ʹǤ͸͵
ͳǤͷͶ
͸͹͹
Ͷ
ʹǤ͸͵
ͳǤͷ͸
ʹͲʹ
ͷȋαŠ‹‰Š‡•–Ȍ
ʹǤ͵ͻ
ͳǤͷ͵
Ͷ͸
Ideology***
‘‹†‡‘Ž‘‰›
͵Ǥʹ͸
ʹǤͳͳ
ʹ͹͸
†‡‘Ž‘‰›
ʹǤͷͻ
ͳǤͶ͹
ͳͲͻͶ
‘–‡ǣ Š‹• –ƒ„Ž‡ ’”‘˜‹†‡• •—ƒ”› •–ƒ–‹•–‹…• ˆ‘” ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ƒŽ‘‰ ˜ƒ”‹‘—• †‹‡•‹‘•Ǥ Š‡
‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•™‡”‡•—”˜‡›‡†‹ ’”‹ŽʹͲͲͻǡƒ†’‡”–ƒ‹–‘–Š‡‡š’‡…–‡†…Šƒ‰‡‹—–…Š…‘•—‡”
’”‹…‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡‡š–ͳʹ‘–Š•Ǥ‡•’‘†‡–•™‡”‡ƒ•‡†–‘”‡’‘”–ƒ–—”ƒŽ—„‡”•„‡–™‡‡‘‡ƒ†–‡Ǥ‘”
–Š‡ ‹…‘‡ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ǡ –Š‡ –‘–ƒŽ •…ƒŽ‡ ȋ™Š‹…Š ”ƒ‰‡• „‡–™‡‡ ͳ ƒ† ͳʹȌ ™ƒ• ƒ’’‡† ‹–‘ –Š”‡‡ ‰”‘—’•ǣ Ž‘™
ȋ˜ƒŽ—‡•ͳ–‘ͶȌǡ‡†‹—ȋ˜ƒŽ—‡•ͷ–‘ͺȌƒ†Š‹‰Šȋ˜ƒŽ—‡•ͻ–‘ͳʹȌǤŠ‡•—ƒ”›•–ƒ–‹•–‹…•ƒ›†‹ˆˆ‡”„‡–™‡‡
–Š‹• –ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ† ƒ„Ž‡ ͳǡ ƒ• ‘– ‡˜‡”› ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ– ‹ ‘—” •—”˜‡› ”‡–—”‡† ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ ‘” „‹ƒ”›
†—‹‡•ǡȗȀȗȗȀȗȗȗ†‡‘–‡••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•ƒ––Š‡ͳͲȀͷȀͳ؎‡˜‡ŽǤ
40
ECB
Working Paper Series No 1265
November 2010
Table9.Knowledgeandrealisticinflationexpectations
Realisticexpectations
endat1%
ȋͳȌ
ȋʹȌ
Knowledge:
Numberofcorrectlyansweredquestions
ͲǤͲͳȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
Fractionofcorrectlyansweredtruestatements
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
Fractionofcorrectlyansweredfalsestatements
ͲǤͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
Othervariables:
Desiretobeinformed(D)
ͲǤͲͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͷȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
SI1:income
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
Noideology(ID)
ͲǤͲͲ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
Workrelatedtomonetaryissues
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
Age
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ǦͲǤͲͲ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
TV
ͲǤͲʹ
ͲǤͲ͵
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
ȋͲǤͲͶȌ
Newspapers
ͲǤͲ͵
ͲǤͲ͵
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
Other
ͲǤͲ͵
ͲǤͲͶ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•
ͳͳͲͶ
ͳͳͲͶ
”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ȏ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…αͳȐ
ͲǤͳͺ
ͲǤͳͺ
ͲǤͲʹ
ͲǤͲ͵
…‡Ž˜‡›Ƭƒ˜‘‹ƒ̵••‡—†‘ʹ
Realisticexpectations
endat2%
ȋ͵Ȍ
ȋͶȌ
ͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲʹ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ͲǤͳͺȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ͲǤͲʹ
ͲǤͲ͵
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ǦͲǤͲͻȗȗ
ǦͲǤͳͲȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ǦͲǤͲͳ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ȋͲǤͲͳȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗ
ǦͲǤͲͲȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ
ͲǤͲ͸
ͲǤͲ͹
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ͲǤͲͺ
ͲǤͲͺ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ
ͲǤͲͶ
ͲǤͲͶ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ȋͲǤͲ͸Ȍ
ͳͳͲͶ
ͳͳͲͶ
ͲǤͷͺ
ͲǤͷͺ
ͲǤͲͳ
ͲǤͲͳ
‘–‡ǣ‘„—•–•–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǥȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗ’δͲǤͳŠ‡ˆ‹‰—”‡•”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ
‡ˆˆ‡…–•ˆ‘”’”‘„‹–”‡‰”‡••‹‘•ǤŠ‡†‡’‡†‡–˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ƒ”‡„‹ƒ”›†—‹‡•–Šƒ–‹†‹…ƒ–‡™Š‡–Š‡”‘”‘–ƒ
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǯ•‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•™‡”‡”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…Ǥš’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ƒ”‡†‡ˆ‹‡†ƒ•—”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…‹ˆ–Š‡›ƒ”‡ƒ„‘˜‡ͳ
ƒ†ʹΨǡ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–•ƒ”‡…‘’—–‡†ƒ–•ƒ’Ž‡‡ƒ•ǡ‡š…‡’–ˆ‘”ȋͲǡͳȌ†—‹‡•ǤŠ‡‡ƒ•—”‡
‘ˆ‡†‹ƒ—•‡‹…Ž—†‡†‹•–Š‡‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–•‘—”…‡‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ȋȌǤ‡•—Ž–•ˆ‘”ǡƒ†™‡”‡•‹‹Žƒ”Ǥ
ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–•ˆ‘”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡ•‡šǡ’ƒ”–‡”ǡ•–ƒ–—•ƒ†…‹–›ƒ”‡‘–•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ƒ†ƒ”‡‘–•Š‘™‹–Š‹•–ƒ„Ž‡Ǥ
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Appendix 1. The questionnaire Intro 1: This questionnaire concerns the European Central Bank, but we will first ask you three general questions. Q1. Has the current economic and financial crisis had negative consequences for you, or do you expect such consequences in the near future? Yes, very much Yes, somewhat Hardly No I don’t know Q2. Does (or did) your work relate to economic, monetary or financial issues? Yes, almost every day Often, but not on a daily basis Sometimes Hardly Never Q3. How would you describe your political orientation? (you may choose more than one option) Liberal Socialist Christian democrat Conservative Progressive I haven’t thought about it Other, namely … Intro 2: The remainder of this questionnaire is on the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is the central bank for Europe's single currency, the euro. Since 1999 the euro has been introduced in 16 European countries. Q4. How do you judge your own knowledge about… Very Poor Neutral Good Very I don’t poor good know …the European Central Bank …economic developments (like price changes, economic growth and unemployment) 5. How important is it to you to be well informed on the policies of the European Central Bank (ECB)? Not important at all Not very important Somewhat important Very important Extremely important I don't know 42
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[Note:respondentswhoanswered“notimportantatall”continuedwithQ7.]
͸Ǥ ‘—Ž† ›‘— ’Ž‡ƒ•‡ –‡ŽŽ —• ‘”‡ ƒ„‘—– ›‘—” ”‡ƒ•‘• –‘ „‡ ‹ˆ‘”‡† ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹…› ‘ˆ –Š‡
—”‘’‡ƒ‡–”ƒŽƒȋȌǫ
‘–‹’‘”–ƒ– ‘–˜‡”› ‘‡™Šƒ–
‡”›
š–”‡‡Ž› †‘̵–
ƒ–ƒŽŽ
‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ‘™
’‘Ž‹…›ƒˆˆ‡…–•› ’‡”•‘ƒŽ‘”ˆƒ‹Ž›
‹…‘‡
’‘Ž‹…›‹ˆŽ—‡…‡• Š‘™—…Š›‘‡›
…ƒ„—›
’‘Ž‹…›ƒˆˆ‡…–•› „—•‹‡••ȀŒ‘„Ȁ’”‘Ǧ
ˆ‡••‹‘
’‘Ž‹…›ƒˆˆ‡…–•–Š‡ ˜ƒŽ—‡‘ˆ›•–‘…•‘”
‘–Š‡”‹˜‡•–‡–•
’‘Ž‹…›‹•
‹’‘”–ƒ–ˆ‘”–Š‡
‡…‘‘›
Œ—•–Ž‹‡–‘‡‡’
‹ˆ‘”‡†™‡ŽŽ
–Š‡”ǡƒ‡Ž›ǣ
Intro3:Wewouldliketogaininsightintopeople’sunderstandingofthemostimportantgoalofthe
EuropeanCentralBank.Thereisnoneedtosearchforthecorrectanswers,andyoushouldnotworry
aboutgivinganincorrectanswer.
͹Ǥƒ›‘—’Ž‡ƒ•‡‹†‹…ƒ–‡™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰•–ƒ–‡‡–•–Šƒ–”‡ˆ‡”–‘–Š‡ƒ‹‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ–Š‡
—”‘’‡ƒ‡–”ƒŽƒȋȌƒ”‡–”—‡‘”ˆƒŽ•‡ǫ
Š‡main‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ–Š‡ǥ
–”—‡
ˆƒŽ•‡
†‘ǯ–‘™
ǥ‹•’”‹…‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›
ǥ‹•–‘‡‡’’”‹…‡•…‘•–ƒ–
ǥ‹•Ž‘™—‡’Ž‘›‡–
ǥ‹•ƒ—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‘ˆƒ–‘•–ͷΨ
ǥ‹•Š‹‰Š‡…‘‘‹…‰”‘™–Š
ǥ‹•ƒ‡…‘‘‹…‰”‘™–Š”ƒ–‡‘ˆƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–ʹΨ
ǥ‹•ƒ‹ˆŽƒ–‹‘”ƒ–‡–Šƒ–‹•…Ž‘•‡–‘„—–„‡Ž‘™ʹΨ
ǥ‹•–‘‡‡’‹–‡”‡•–”ƒ–‡•…‘•–ƒ–
ǥƒ’’Ž‹‡•–‘–Š‡‡—”‘ƒ”‡ƒƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡
ǥƒ’’Ž‹‡•–‘ƒŽŽ‡—”‘ƒ”‡ƒ…‘—–”‹‡••‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡Ž›
ǥƒ’’Ž‹‡•–‘–Š‡‡†‹—Ǧ–‡”
Intro4:Wewouldliketoaskyouanumberofquestionsconcerningthemannerinwhichyoureceive
informationaboutthepolicyoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).
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ͺǤŠ”‘—‰Š™Š‹…Š•‘—”…‡•‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘†‘›‘—Š‡ƒ”‘””‡ƒ†ƒ„‘—––Š‡’‘Ž‹…‹‡•‘ˆ–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒ
‡–”ƒŽƒȋȌǫ
‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›
……ƒ•‹‘ƒŽŽ›
‡˜‡”
†‘̵–‘™
‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘
ƒ†‹‘
‡™•’ƒ’‡”•
ƒ‰ƒœ‹‡•
–‡”‡–
”‹‡†•ǡˆƒ‹Ž›ǡ…‘ŽŽ‡ƒ‰—‡• –Š‡”ǡƒ‡Ž›ǣ
Intro5:Finally,wewouldliketoaskyouanumberofquestionsonthesourcesofinformationonthe
policyoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).
ͻǤ Š‹…Š ‘ˆ –Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ ‹• ›‘—” ‘•– ‹’‘”–ƒ– •‘—”…‡ ‘ˆ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹…› ‘ˆ –Š‡
—”‘’‡ƒ‡–”ƒŽƒǫȋ’Ž‡ƒ•‡•‡Ž‡…–‘Ž›‘‡Ȍǫ
‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘
ƒ†‹‘
‡™•’ƒ’‡”•
ƒ‰ƒœ‹‡•
–‡”‡–
”‹‡†•Ȁ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡•Ȁ…‘ŽŽ‡ƒ‰—‡•
†‘̵–—•‡ƒ›•‘—”…‡•‘’‘Ž‹…›
†‘̵–‘™
–Š‡”ǡƒ‡Ž›ǣ
ȋǥǤȌ
Q.Whatdoyouthinkisthemostlikelypriceincrease(increaseofconsumerprices)overthenext
twelvemonths?ǯ ʹͺ
ʹͺŠ‹•‹•ƒ•–ƒ†ƒ”†“—‡•–‹‘ȏ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ͲȐˆ”‘–Š‡Ǥ‡•’‘†‡–•ƒ”‡ƒ•‡†–‘”‡’‘”–ƒƒ–—”ƒŽ—„‡”
„‡–™‡‡‘‡ƒ†–‡Ǥ
44
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November 2010
Appendix 2. Weighting Table 1 indicates issues regarding representativeness. We have used information from Statistics Netherlands on gender, age, household size, partner and education to compute sampling weights. The differences between the weighted and unweighted levels of knowledge are small. To be precise, when we weight observations, we find that the estimated level of knowledge is slightly lower. For instance, the average number of correct answers to question 7 of our survey declines from 4.60 to 4.45. The overall impression that the public’s knowledge on monetary policy is far from perfect, is left undisturbed by weighting. Unfortunately, we are unable to weight according to income. As income turns out to have a positive relationship with knowledge, we would rate the conclusions regarding the level of knowledge as being rather too optimistic than pessimistic. There has been an extended discussion on weighting in regression analysis. For various positions in this debate, see: Angrist and Pischke, 2009 (p. 91‐94); DuMouchel and Duncan, 1983; Korn and Graubard, 1994; Magee, Robb and Burbidge, 1998; Pfeffermann, 1993; or Winship and Radbill, 1994. The consensus seems that weighting is more relevant for estimating population parameters than for establishing measures of association between variables. Also, weighting may have the drawback of increasing the standard errors of the estimates. For a number of reasons, we base our regressions on unweighted data. First, we note that the descriptive results are already not very sensitive to weighting. Second, our sampling weights are solely based on independent variables already included in the regressions. In this case, unweighted and weighted regressions will yield consistent estimates, but the former will be, as noted, more efficient (Winship and Radbill, 1994). Third, we followed DuMouchel and Duncan’s (1983) suggestion to include sampling weights and interaction terms between weights and independent variables in the regressions to detect possible misspecification. In almost all cases, we were not able to reject the hypothesis that the coefficients for the sampling weights and the interactions terms equal zero, which indicates using unweighted data is appropriate. Further details regarding weighting are available from the corresponding author. ECB
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Wo r k i n g Pa p e r S e r i e s
N o 1 1 1 8 / n ov e m b e r 2 0 0 9
Discretionary
Fiscal Policies
over the Cycle
New Evidence
based on the ESCB
Disaggregated Approach
by Luca Agnello
and Jacopo Cimadomo