15 Months Out And It's Still Anyone's Game
Election Day 2016 is 410 days away and Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie
Sanders are at the top of the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (well, Trump is
on top in the Palmetto State at least). Folks across America are gnashing their teeth over
whether it will be a Trump-Sanders matchup a year from now.
It's politics, so anything is possible - after all, it was just a little over a year ago that a top
Republican House leader lost in a stunning primary. It's also clear these two individuals have
tapped into something very real - a distaste for the establishment - that has been growing for
two decades. Over the last 20 years, that unease has generally played itself out at the other end
of Pennsylvania Avenue with control of the House bouncing back and forth three times
between Republicans and Democrats and similar upheaval in the Senate. Voter anger with
Washington is real - about two-thirds of Americans consistently say the country is headed in the
wrong direction. Indeed, on the GOP side, you now have to go all the way to the fourth place in
the latest presidential primary poll to find an individual who has held elective office.
However, even with these two considerations in mind, history tells us that a Sanders-Trump
matchup is unlikely.
Primary contests are always raucous events - as political commentator Larry Sabato reminded
us this summer, presidential primary debates actually preceded televised general election
debates - that it takes great physical and organizational stamina to endure.
Americans have always been interested in these contests, but that early interest, or momentum
stemming from it, has rarely been a reliable predictor of the nominee. Insurgent candidates are
common for both parties at this point, but rare is the insurgent who has won. Media outlets
across the pond get this phenomenon even if their U.S. counterparts do not. In July, UK
Telegraph U.S. correspondent David Millward reminded readers, "Candidates from William
Jennings Bryan to George McGovern have generated excitement among their [Democratic]
supporters only for their campaigns to end in heroic failure." On the GOP side, earlier this
month an article in The Economist noted, "Outspoken populists often disrupt the early stages of
the Republican Party's search for a candidate," but rarely win.
Indeed, a glance in the rearview mirror shows us that the candidate who eventually won the
nomination for the party that didn't hold the White House was never ahead in the late summer
the year before the election. According to CNN:


In late August 2011, Republican Texas Gov. Rick Perry led eventual nominee Mitt
Romney by 13 points;
In early August 2007, Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 19 point
advantage over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama; and

In September 2003, eventual Democratic nominee Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was
in fourth place behind Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and
Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
While political data guru Nate Silver found a handful of instances since 1972 (when Ed Muskie
was running ahead of George McGovern in the Democratic primary) where the eventual
nominee was leading a year-and-a-half out, his 2011 overview of presidential primary polling
proves popular opinion at this point is an unreliable indicator of who will eventually win the
nominating contest.
Of course there are two new(ish) factors in the 2016 election that could turn history on its
head, but, again, I don't think those issues will turn the tide, at least in the Republican race. The
first is social media, which is obviously not new to this cycle, but the proliferation of platforms
has enhanced and possibly lengthened the Donald Trump wave. However, social media also
turned on Trump after the second debate. It's a finicky medium and while what's trending on
Twitter is interesting at this point, it's also true that only one-quarter of Americans use social
sites other than Facebook. An Instagram candidacy won't win an election.
The other factor is candidates' own wealth, meaning Donald Trump's. As Trump tells Americans
every chance he gets, he is - very, very - wealthy. In fact, Trump has made a point that he is selffunding his candidacy and not taking "special interest" donations. Is his net worth the $9 billion
he claims or the $4 billion Forbes estimates? And the big question is, how liquid are his assets
really? President Barack Obama and 2012 Republican Nominee Mitt Romney each spent more
than $1 billion trying to get elected three years ago. Donald Trump may have made millions in
the casino industry and real estate, but is he willing to bet a quarter of his net worth on a White
House run? Even if he attracts some big dollar supporters to a super PAC, what are the odds
Trump would risk 15 percent - or even five percent - of his wealth on a primary run? In other
words, is he going to invest in the organization necessary that can endure for the long haul? As
importantly, a self-funding candidate misses the opportunity to lock in voters early. Small
dollar donations are a key barometer of the commitment of a candidate's supporters. With no
investors in his race, how durable is his support? Time will tell.
The presidential primary process is the most rigorous job interview process in the world. Voters
often rethink their initial crushes. To win a nomination, it takes physical stamina, broad-based
support among primary voters, organizational prowess and a strong message that compels
voters to actually come out to vote. In the last three presidential cycles, primary voters from
the parties that didn't currently hold the White House have eventually decided the candidate
whom they loved 15 months out didn't pass muster.
Indeed, there is evidence primary voters may already be rethinking their summer 2015 loves.
According to a CNN poll released on Sept. 21 - five days after the second Republican
presidential primary debate - support for frontrunner Donald Trump dropped eight points while
support for Carly Fiorina (who was not polling high enough to make it into the first GOP debate)
rose 12 points. (Fiorina is now in second place.) On the Democratic side, CNN also revealed this
week that Hillary Clinton's support continues to grow nationally (though her support is less
solid if Vice President Joe Biden enters the race).
Election Day 2016 is 410 days away. That's an eternity in politics and, if history is a guide, at 310
days out and 210 days out and 110 days out, the race will look a lot different than it does today.
Nat Wienecke is the Senior Vice President for Federal Government Relations at the Property Casualty
Insurers Association of America, a national trade association of nearly 1000 insurance companies. He
has over twenty years of public policy experience in Congress, the Executive Branch, and the government
relations arena. Previously he served as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Legislative Affairs
nominated by President George W. Bush.
The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author and they do not necessarily represent the views
and opinions of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, the Association’s staff, or its members.