REDACTED VERSION
TENDER FOR THE SUPPLY OF AN EVIDENCE
REVIEW ON THE EU ETS, FOCUSSING ON
EFFECTIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM IN DRIVING
INDUSTRIAL ABATEMENT.
R EFERENCE N O : TRN 310/11/2011
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................3
2
PROPOSAL ...........................................................................................................................5
Section 1 Understanding requirements and adding value ......................................................................................... 5
1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
2
A preview of existing research on the EU ETS .......................................................................................................................... 6
3
Research objectives .............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
4
Research questions ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Section 2 Proposed approach ............................................................................................................................................. 10
1
Literature search and inclusion criteria .................................................................................................................................... 10
2
Results and Quality analysis ........................................................................................................................................................... 11
3
Gap Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Section 3
Addressing Challenges ....................................................................................................................................... 13
Section 4
Delivery Plan ......................................................................................................................................................... 15
Section 5
Risk Identification and Management ............................................................................................................ 16
Section 6
Skills and knowledge .......................................................................................................................................... 17
Section 7
Pricing ...................................................................................................................................................................... 19
3
ORGANISATION ................................................................................................................. 20
Section 1 Imperial Consultants .......................................................................................................................................... 20
1
History ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
2
Corporate Structure............................................................................................................................................................................ 20
3
Range of Services ................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Section 2
Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London .................................................... 21
Section 3
Universidad Carlos III, Madrid – Spain......................................................................................................... 22
4
PROJECT TEAM .................................................................................................................. 23
5
REFEREES .......................................................................................................................... 25
ANNEX 1: CURRICULUM VITAE OF ACADEMICS ......................................................................... 26
ANNEX 2: ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS REQUESTED ..................................................................... 38
2
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The European Emissions Trading System is a corner stone of the European as well as UK
policies to mitigate emissions. It also has a global pioneering role. Organised in various
trading phases the design of the EU ETS is still very much in flux. Key open questions concern
the stringency of future caps as well as the practice of permit allocation and related,
benchmarking. Because of possible negative effects on competitiveness, the EU ETS will also
remain a controversial policy.
DECC is at the heart of developing the UK’s negotiating position and stance on the EU ETS.
DECC also has to defend this position to lobby groups and the UK population at large.
Having been operational since 2005 there are plenty of studies discussing the EU ETS (e.g. a
Google scholar search for “EU ETS” leads to more than 50,000 hits). An increasing number of
those is based on actual ex-post data concerning various aspects of the EU ETS. In line with UK
government practice it is crucial that DECC bases its future work regarding the EU ETS on this
evidence base. For this purpose we propose to undertake a comprehensive literature review
summarised in a report.
The empirical literature is primarily concerned with three aspects of the EU ETS:
1. Efforts to explain and predict the permit price in the permit market
2. Assessing the impact of the ETS on emissions mitigation
3. Assessing the impact of the ETS on other economic variables such as the
competitiveness of industry.
We understand that points two and three are of key interest to DECC’s policy making and we
propose to select studies to review in these two categories.
We propose to adopt programme evaluation thinking in conducting this review. That is, we
suggest that the underlying question is to know the causal effect of the EU ETS and its
different design elements on various outcome variables ranging from GHG emissions to
innovation. This suggests to classify the existing literature along the following dimensions:




Which outcome does the study inform us about?
Which EU ETS policy aspect does it examine?
The results apply to which type of affected entity?
How reliable is the study identifying causal effects as opposed to correlations?
These dimensions will identify a multi-dimensional matrix and thereby any gaps in this matrix.
We will work with DECC in the initial weeks of the review to make adjustments to these
categories and dimensions to make sure they meet DECC’s needs.
In addition to reviewing the literature we will draw a synthesis linking the findings to policy
objectives of DECC such as reducing UK emissions to meet the targets the government is
3
committed to, ensuring continued competitiveness of the UK industry as well as making
contributions to reaching global emission targets. We will make adjustments to this list of
objectives in discussions with DECC.
To undertake this task we have assembled a team of experienced researchers who are
currently conducting several studies on the EU ETS. Between us we also capture fluency in a
wide range of European languages ensuring that in our review we can tap into studies that are
not necessarily in English.
4
2 PROPOSAL
Section 1
1
UNDERSTANDING REQUIREMENTS AND ADDING VALUE
INTRODUCTION
The European Union has been a central player in the global efforts to curb greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions and mitigate climate change. In 2005, the EU launched the Emissions
Trading System (EU ETS), the first international carbon trading scheme in the world.
Following a three-year pilot period, Phase II of the EU ETS was launched in 2008. Across its 27
Member States (MS), the EU ETS covers large plants from CO2-emission intensive industrial
sectors, namely power generation, mineral oil refineries, coke ovens, iron and steel and
factories producing cement, glass, lime, brick, ceramics, pulp and paper, and all combustion
activities with a rated thermal input exceeding above 20 MWh. During the first two years, this
scheme included approximately 10,600 industrial installations from 25 MS. Bulgaria and
Romania joined the trading scheme in 2007, bringing the total number of installations to
11,300.
The EU ETS is a compliance market, and requires that each installation surrenders each year a
number of allowances equal to its verified emissions. During the first two Phases, each MS
allocates in its National Allocation Plan (NAP) a certain number of allowances to each
installation. To balance allocated allowances and actual emissions, regulated companies can
trade on the allowance market with other ETS companies from any MS as well as with third
parties such as brokers, so as to minimise their compliance cost. The common allowance
market thus establishes a uniform carbon price for all regulated facilities, which induces them
to reduce carbon emissions at minimal cost to the system as a whole. While the carbon price
does not vary between regulated firms it is likely that firms react very differently to the same
carbon price depending on their carbon intensity or the amount of international competition
they are facing, for instance.
Furthermore, the EU Council announced in spring 2007 its commitment to abate GHG
emissions by 20% by 2020 (the so-called 20-20 objective). Ambitious and well-designed
climate and energy policies are needed to reach this goal and to persuade Europe’s
international partners to follow its commitment. A fundamental concern of policymakers
pondering the implementation of binding GHG emissions targets is about their potential
negative impacts on the competitiveness of domestic businesses and domestic employment.
When assessing such concerns governments are faced with a fundamental information
asymmetry, in that the regulated firms know best how costly it is for them to meet certain
pollution targets but they have no incentive to reveal this to the regulator. To the contrary,
they have every incentive to exaggerate the costs of complying with the proposed target and
to lobby for less stringent ones. As a consequence, risk averse policy makers are likely to set
targets that are insufficiently stringent, as has happened in the first phase of the EU ETS
(Martin, Muûls, de Preux and Wagner, 2011) or the UK ETS (Martin, de Preux and Wagner,
2009).
While the main mechanism of the EU ETS is the establishment of a carbon price it could have
impacts trough a number of other channels. For instance it might simply be an important
signal that policy makers take climate change seriously. Also, the practice of grandfathering
5
emission permits has led to firm specific emission targets. In theory such targets should only
have a distributional impact but not affect the choices of firms at the margin. However there is
evidence that these targets make real differences (e.g. Martin et. al (2011b) find a causal link
between targets and innovation).
The EU ETS is designed as a work in progress. Given its pioneering role it was clear from the
outset that there would be a constant learning process that would require changes to its
design. This was taken into account by defining trading phases allowing regular opportunities
to change the system.
The next trading phase will start in 2013. Most of the structure of the ensuing period through
to 2020 has already been agreed. However, there are important elements left open. For
example there is still debate about the overall reduction targets (20 vs 30%). There might still
be room to make changes to the practice of free allocations (in particular if a 30% target was
adopted). There will also be a review of the permit allocation process before 2020.
For DECC it is important to understand the effects of the EU ETS as a whole and of its various
design features for a number of reasons. Firstly, DECC will be in charge of developing the UK’s
position on the current and future design of the ETS. In line with UK government standards,
any such position should be informed by an evidence base. Secondly, because of the
potentially negative effects on competitiveness, the ETS will always be a controversial policy.
Also, even if the negative effects are small and concentrated on a small subset of industries
and with only small employment effects, it is likely that “the loosers” make their loss known
disproportionally. DECC therefore needs to defend its policy stance on the EU ETS to the
public by drawing on the best non-partial evidence on the matter.
2
A PREVIEW OF EXISTING RESEARCH ON THE EU ETS
There are a number of studies on the EU ETS. A very preliminary overview of the literature
reveals three main areas of evidence. The financial economics literature has analysed the
workings of the allowance market (Alberola et al., 2008, Trotignon et al., 2008); two other
main areas that have been studied so far are carbon leakage and effectiveness in emission
reductions. Given our perceived interest of DECC the focus of the literature review will be
primarily on these two areas.
2.1
Competitiveness
A large amount of evidence has been produced on this issue. One policy variable that is
heavily debated at both the academic and policy level is the practice of allocating emission
permits. Ellerman et al. (2007) and Ahman et al. (2007) are among those that have the permit
allocation scheme, while another approach to this question has been to calibrate computable
general equilibrium models that are capable of predicting the consequences of differential
carbon pricing across regions and the resulting carbon leakage (see the survey by Paltsev,
2001). Very few ex post evaluation studies of the competitiveness effects of the EU ETS have
been completed to date. Demailly and Quirion (2008) and Anger and Oberndorfer (2008)
study the impact of the EU ETS on production and profitability respectively for the sector of
iron and steel industry and for a sample of German firms. The former find modest
competitiveness losses and the latter no significant impact on revenues and employment of
the firms under regulation. Recent research by our team has also established that the existing
allocation rules by the EU are not optimal and could be modified to achieve greater emissions
6
reductions and at the same time a lower risk of carbon leakage and loss of competitiveness
(Martin et al., 2011).
2.2
Abatement
Besides, researchers and policy makers have been keen to evaluate the effectiveness of the
EU ETS at incentivising carbon abatement. Ellerman and Buchner (2009) and work by
Delarure et al (2007) combine the Community Independent Transaction Log (CITL) and
carbon price data with counterfactual simulations at the sector level. Ellerman et al. (2010)
also use a macro approach as well as data on the electric utility sector to answer this question.
All three show the overall success of the market-based instruments on emissions abatement.
As far as other climate policy measures are concerned, members of this research team have
analysed in previous work the impact of the Climate Change Levy on UK manufacturing firms
(Martin et al., 2009). They find that this tax had no significant impacts on employment, gross
output or total factor productivity and that a substantial tax discount granted to some firms
prevented further cuts in energy use.
This preliminary literature overview provides a glimpse into the research project required.
3
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
A full international literature review and summary will provide a thorough understanding of
the EU ETS’s performance so far. In particular, the study will focus on the industrial sector
rather than the power generators. The latter have already been the object of numerous
studies.
Having a strong and full evidence base will allow DECC to:
-
4
Ensure the EU ETS is contributing to DECC’s objectives and if not prepare
supplementary policies.
Have an informed re-negotiation position for modifications to Phase III and
implementation of Phase IV
Identify gaps in the evidence in order to fulfil future evaluation work.
Inform DECC in communicating with the public and lobby groups.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
While reviewing the literature, this research will aim at answering four main questions.
1. How effective is the ETS in driving industrial abatement in the UK and more widely?
Given the main policy objective of the EU ETS is to achieve emission reductions, it is
crucial to understand whether the first two phases of the system have encouraged
participating installations to abate. More specifically, the existing evidence might provide
more insight into the drivers and barriers to reducing emissions and how the EU ETS
affect these two dimensions.
As we will detail below, three main dimensions will be analysed when assessing the
literature on the effectiveness of the ETS in reducing emissions. First, it will be important
to isolate the causal effect of the EU ETS on abatement levels. For example, if a piece of
7
evidence reports a decrease in emissions in 2009, how much of it can be attributed to the
EU ETS rather than to the global recession?
Second, this review will research evidence specific to the UK and other participating
countries, as well as sector-level studies, in order to assess how specific results might be
generalised. Third and conversely, when larger studies are taken into account, how do the
identified general effects of the ETS vary within the analysed population?
An additional dimension that will be considered is the use by installations of the Kyoto
flexibility mechanisms (Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation). These
allow member states to meet part of their target by financing emission reduction projects
in countries outside the EU, including developing countries in the case of CDMs. The
review will collect evidence on whether the ETS drives emission reductions and transfer
of funds in developing countries through these 'flexible mechanisms'.
2. Which elements of the ETS drive abatement?
The review will also seek to include evidence on the channels through which the ETS has
been driving (or not) emission reductions. Given the historic price variations on the
market, the research will analyse any evidence of its impact on abatement, investment or
innovation. Similarly, while the allocation of permits should in theory not affect behaviour
of market participants, we will review any evidence suggesting otherwise. Besides, if the
ETS has been efficient in creating liquidity in the market, how does this liquidity impact
abatement by installations?
3. How does the EU ETS interact with other policies designed to achieve abatement?
While the EU ETS is the main European Union policy to achieve emission reductions,
other policies are in place at the national, EU and international levels. At the international
level, the flexibility mechanisms mentioned above are the result of the Kyoto Protocol.
Their use and interaction with the ETS are important elements to be understood for
future negotiations, both in the international arena, and in the design of future ETS Phases.
At the EU level, many other policies seek to achieve emissions reductions. These include
the 2020 target of 20% of renewable energy or the Energy Efficiency plan. At the national
level, policies such as the Climate Change Levy in the UK, or clean innovation subsidies
also affect industrial firms’ behaviour. Being aware of the evidence on how these other EU
and national policies interact with the ETS, in particular for the industrial sector, will be
key in designing future European and national level policy mixes.
4. How does the EU ETS compare to alternative models which are available to achieve the
same levels of abatement?
While the EU has opted for a carbon market to achieve a large part of its emissions
reduction targets, economic theory suggest that a carbon tax would be an alternative
instrument to incentivise firms to abate. Alternatively, more local (the UK ETS) or global
8
permit markets could also be an option. For example Australia has recently implemented
a carbon market. The review will therefore also consider evidence on such alternatives
and on their relative effectiveness.
In addition we will draw a synthesis linking the findings to policy objectives of DECC such as
reducing UK emissions to meet the targets the government is committed to, ensuring
continued competitiveness of the UK industry as well as making contributions to reaching
global emission targets. We will make adjustments to this list of objectives in discussions with
DECC.
9
Section 2
PROPOSED APPROACH
In order to achieve the goals and answer the four questions listed in Section 1, our approach
will consist of two main steps. First, an initial review of the evidence will collect and
summarise evidence included in the search and inclusion criteria. The evidence will then be
categorised to present key findings and meta-data. Second, an in-depth analysis of the
evidence will be produced assessing to what extent the four research questions can be
answered on the basis of the available evidence and a gap analysis performed.
1
LITERATURE SEARCH AND INCLUSION CRITERIA
The first step will consist in conducting an extensive search for policy and scientific papers
and reports, using four electronic citation databases available online: Google Scholar, JStor
and IDEAS, Social Science Research Network.
Papers and reports will be included if they:
-
-
were published after 2006, given anything published before would not be referring to
any actual effect of the ETS;
relate to the industrial sector, while reports relating only to the power sector will be
excluded from consideration;
are not based on computable general equilibrium models or integrated assessment
models, given these would only give “modelled” answers and not evidence based on
the ETS experience;
are written in English, French, Dutch, German or Spanish, as these are the languages
spoken by members of the research team;
Relate to the efficiency of the EU ETS, the use of flexibility mechanisms, the impact of
the EU ETS on investment and innovation, the effect of allocation of permits, the
liquidity and price signal on the market, the interaction between the EU ETS and other
national, EU or international policies, the comparison between a carbon tax or other
policy instruments and the EU ETS;
Abstracts will be screened to identify full scientific and policy reports to be retrieved and
reviewed for consideration. While there is a risk that the evidence found is limited, the
quality and academic background of our research team, our previous experience with both
policy and academically oriented EU ETS research and our international reach will ensure
that our review will include any existing evidence.
Given the list of papers found, the breadth of the evidence including key findings and metadata will then be presented. We will approach this task in preparation of the next step as an
exercise to answer a number of programme evaluation type questions based on the available
evidence; i.e. we aim to understand the causal effect of a given aspect of our policy measure
(the EU ETS) on a variety of outcome variables.
10
Figure 1: Programme evaluation approach
Policy
Outcome
Causal Effect
We will categorise the available evidence along a number of dimensions suggested by such a
programme evaluation approach. Specifically we group the results by different outcome
categories, by which type of policy aspect of the EU ETS they capture, to which sub sample
they might apply (e.g. which industry or country) and whether or not they identify causality in
a correct way. The following table further details the different categories we initially propose.
Clearly the categories can be adjusted to suit DECC’s specific interests and needs and an
alternative pro-forma agreed upon.
Table 1: Classification and Assessment Categories
Outcome types
Policy aspect
Applicability
Emissions
Price effect
Specific sector
Economic
Performance
Allocation
effects
Specific country
Innovation
Signalling
Specific type of
firm (e.g.
smaller/larger)
Average across
several/all sectors
Non-specified
2
Identification of
causality
Pure correlation
Advanced identification
design
RESULTS AND QUALITY ANALYSIS
Given the categorisation presented above, we will assess in-depth each piece of evidence. The
quality, source and objectivity of each paper will be analysed. This will allow us to base our
secondary analysis only on sound and reliable evidence. An important step, as described in
point 4 of Section 1 will consist in examining how reliably the results identify a causal impact
as opposed to only a correlation, whether the derived results can be generalised to a larger
group than the analysed sample, and how heterogeneous the effects might be within the
studied population. We will thus be in a position to moderate the different evidence found.
Each of the four questions set out in Section 1 will then be considered in the next step of our
review. We shall present and synthesise evidence related to each topic, using the different
categories of evidence accordingly. Any caveats on the causality or generalisation of the
effects identified will be clearly expressed.
11
3
GAP ANALYSIS
Finally, we will identify gaps in the literature. This will be based on the observation of the
meta-data on evidence according to the agreed categorisation and pro-forma as well as on the
results of the research questions analysis. This gap analysis will also consider the
identification of causality and heterogeneity of effects as desirable evidence; e.g. we would
identify a gap if for a specific policy-outcome combination there is only correlation evidence
but not sound identification of a causal relationship. Based on this, potential
recommendations for further research and analysis will be suggested.
The product of these three main steps will be a policy report1 that focuses on answering
critically the four research questions and the gap analysis, thus also providing avenues for
future research.
1
The report will follow DECC’s report writing guidelines for social research and evaluation that were provided in the
tender package.
12
Section 3
ADDRESSING CHALLENGES
The review proposed above presents a certain number of challenges. This section clarifies for
each of these how our approach and the quality of our team will ensure we address it.
1. Objectivity: Given the strong economic consequences of the EU ETS design for various
stakeholders, the subject of this review is rather contentious. Additionally, given the long
process of peer reviewing in Economics, it is likely that some of the evidence available is
not published in peer-reviewed journals yet. However, our deep knowledge of the subject
and our academic backgrounds will ensure that we independently and critically assess
each paper or report along two dimensions. First, the source and authors of a piece of
evidence will be considered and checked. Second, we will scientifically review them as
explained in Section 2 above such that only robust and appropriate sources are included to
form the evidence base.
2. Scope and coverage: Given the tight timescale of the review, it is a challenge to analyse the
EU ETS’s effectiveness and its interaction with other national or international policies both
at the UK and EU level. While we might be constrained by the actual existence of evidence
to cover each of these topics, the experience, size and international character of our
research team will ensure that any available evidence is correctly reviewed and included.
3. Actual vs. expected effect: The focus of this review will be the effectiveness of the EU ETS.
More specifically, the interest is in actual rather than simulated effects of the various
policy aspects of the ETS. As detailed in Section 1, our search and inclusion criteria will
ensure that this is the case, as any modelled effect will not be part of our review. In
particular, results based on Integrated Assessment Models or Computable General
Equilibrium Models shall not be included.
4. Availability: There is a risk that some of the reports or papers on the EU ETS are either
commissioned or held in other Member States. This might hinder their availability or
accessibility. Our team has been working as academics on the EU ETS for the past three
years, and have therefore presented widely across Europe and within the EU institutions.
We have therefore developed contacts with players in different countries as well as policy
spheres (lobby groups, think tanks, government departments). These contacts will
certainly be useful in obtaining such reports. Besides, given the wide range of languages
spoken by our team, we will be in a position to access more evidence.
5. Comprehension: The EU ETS is a complex policy instrument, both in its technicalities and
its policy context. Our academic background and experience in working on the EU ETS
ensure that we will have an intelligent and informed comprehension of the existing
evidence. Besides, we have worked extensively in the past with the data from the
Community Independent Transaction Log (CITL) that provides emissions and allowances
data for EU ETS installations. This is one of the main sources used in the literature on the
EU ETS. Our knowledge of this dataset will put us in the ideal position to critically assess
the evidence, and if necessary perform basic analysis (given the time constraint) of it to
address the research questions. Finally, our previous research on the system and our
dialogue with DECC, the EU Commission and Parliament implies that we understand in
depth the policy background, its rationale and its operational details. As demonstrated
13
above in our approach presentation of Sections 1 and 2, the main characteristic of our
review is that it will be based on critical analysis.
6. Presentation of results: Given the complexity and contentiousness of the system, a concise
but complete report is necessary to fulfil the aim of the review. It will need to carefully be
based on robust evidence and highlight throughout the report the quality and reliability of
the results. Besides, identifying gaps in the literature will complement answers to the
research questions and identify potential future research projects. Our extensive
experience in writing both academic papers and policy reports provides the perfect blend
to address the challenge of producing a convincing and robust evidence based report.
14
Section 4
DELIVERY PLAN
This section details the full project plan including tasks, milestones, dependencies and
deliverables.
w/c 16 January 2012: inception meeting at DECC, discussion on proforma and search and
inclusion criteria.
w/c 23 January 2012: Search / inclusion criteria and review proforma agreed by steering
group
16 January – 27 January 2012:
Task: Search of the literature according to search and inclusion criteria.
Researcher: Mirabelle Muuls – 5 days
Deliverable: Electronic folder with all papers and reports. Spreadsheet with list of titles
and authors.
30 January – 13 February 2012:
Task: Categorisation and of each paper and report into agreed pro-forma, key results
and meta-data presentation. Quality analysis.
Researchers: all three for 2 days each
Dependencies: Result of literature search, and agreed pro-forma with DECC
Deliverables: Key results and meta-data presentation in categorical table.
Report outline.
w/c 13 February 2012: Report outline and summary of initial findings submitted
w/c 20 February 2012: 2nd steering group meeting to discuss initial findings.
20 February – 6 March 2012:
Task: Addressing each of the four research questions. Critical analysis of evidence.
Writing up of results.
Researchers: all three for 4.5 days each (including half a day after 3rd steering group
meeting to finalise report)
Dependencies: Categorical table with corresponding papers and reports.
Deliverables: Secondary in-depth critical analysis of evidence in response to research
questions
6 March – 12 March 2012:
Task: Gap analysis .
Researchers: all three for 0.5 days each
Dependencies: Secondary in-depth analysis.
Deliverables: Identification of gaps in literature and avenues for further research.
w/c 12 March 2012: Draft final report submitted
w/c 19 March 2012: 3rd steering group meeting to discuss report
30 March 2012: Final report submitted
Note: Progress updates by phone or email will be provided every two weeks for the duration
of the project.
15
Section 5
RISK IDENTIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT
This section addresses in more detail the risk management strategy of this project.
For the duration of the project, we would adopt the PRINCE2 approach. The risk management
component of this process consists of (1) Identifying the risks, (2) Analysing the risks, (3)
Planning risk control and (4) Monitoring and controlling risks. The Risk Register is below and
lists the risks we have identified and how we will manage and mitigate against them. It will be
reviewed regularly at progress meetings held every two weeks for the duration of the project.
Event
Description
Impact Description
Inherent
probability
Inherent
Impact
Inherent
score
Probability
Actions
1
Papers and
Reports are
sparse
Despite a thorough
search, there is an
extremely limited
number of papers
analysing the EU ETS
for the industrial
sector.
LO
ME
30
Include more than two
search engines as well as
more sources, both policy
and academic.
Invest more time in gap
analysis and presentation
of results. Use CITL data for
basic analysis.
2
Quality of
evidence is
very low.
The papers and reports
included are of very
low quality. They do
not use appropriate
tools to identify
causality.
LO
ME
30
Include more than two
search engines as well as
more sources, both policy
and academic.
Invest more time in gap
analysis and carefully
present results taking into
account the quality of the
evidence.
3
Researcher
is
unavailable
to work on
project.
For health or other
reasons, some of the
three researchers is
unavailable during the
project period.
VLO
ME
3
Team of three instead of
two. Careful planning of
time management.
Other researchers invest
more time. Additional
researcher is hired.
16
Modifier
Impact Modifier Actions
Section 6
SKILLS AND KNOWLEDGE
We have formed a project team consisting of two senior and one junior academics with
experience of policy work and economics backgrounds from one of the most respected
academic institutions in the UK and Spain. For full details on the backgrounds of all team
members see the Appendix. Here we describe the role of each team member within the
project.
Ralf Martin will be responsible for managing the project and will be DECC’s point of contact.
He will contribute to all parts of the project except for the initial literature collection
according to the search and inclusion criteria. Ralf has previously worked on an evaluation of
the UK Climate Change Levy as well as a number of Business support schemes run by the UK
government.
Ulrich Wagner will contribute to all parts of the project except for the initial stage. His recent
work investigates the impact of climate policy on energy use, economic performance, and
innovation.
Mirabelle Muûls will be contributing to all parts of the project, in particular the initial
literature collection according to the search and inclusion criteria. She has worked on panel
data econometric analysis, focusing initially on international trade, and more recently on
climate change policy analysis.
In the past three years, Ralf, Ulrich and Mirabelle have worked together on several projects
involving very large datasets of firms, analysing their responses to past energy prices and to
climate policy. Most of their recent work has focused on the EU Emissions Trading System. In
all of their academic research, they have developed a strong expertise in designing,
undertaking and quality assuring evidence reviews: for any new academic research project, a
first step will consist of a literature review in order to identify and address gaps in the
knowledge base.
One of their projects on the EU ETS involved the design and conduction in 2009 of close to
900 interviews with industrial firms’ managers on their climate change management
practices and policy response. This data was also matched to other datasets including the
CITL. They presented the results of this research in DECC, the European Commission and
Parliament, academic institutions and conferences among others. In this process, they
acquired a profound understanding of the EU ETS policy area and carbon markets. Through
the nature of the interviews, this also gave them an excellent insight in the functioning of
industrial organizations. The output of this project is several academic papers as well as a
policy brief that was circulated widely and responses to public consultations. All three team
17
members have also had additional experience in writing reports for a policy audience, as can
be seen from their CVs in the appendix.
The track record of the research team will ensure that all analysis is undertaken according to
the highest academic standards and is communicated to policy in an appropriate way.
18
Section 7
PRICING
Part A – Staff/project team charges
Name of staff
Grade/
Daily rate (ex No.
days Total
price
level
of VAT)
offered over offered
per
staff
course
of staff member
contract
XXX
XXX
XXX
Sub-total
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
Part B – Non-staff/project team charges
Item
No. of Items
Price per item Total
price
(ex VAT)
offered
XXX
Sub-total
1
XXX
Part C – Full price offered
Sub-total (Part A + Part B)
VAT
Total (Part A + Part B + VAT)
XXX
£0
XXX
19
XXX
XXX
3 ORGANISATION
Working through Imperial Consultants, the team comprises of academics from Imperial
College London and the Universidad Carlos III in Madrid.
Section 1
1
IMPERIAL CONSULTANTS
HISTORY
Imperial Consultants was founded in 1990 and has grown steadily since then. It currently has
annual turnover in excess of £15M and gift-aids profits of more than £1M/year to the IC Trust,
a charitable organisation that provides financial support to Imperial College for its core
teaching, scholarship and research activities
2
CORPORATE STRUCTURE
Imperial Consultants is the trading name of IC Consultants Limited. IC Consultants Limited is
wholly owned by Imperial College and all profits of the company are returned to the College
via the IC Trust. Imperial Consultants employs more than 25 Full-Time Equivalent staff and
undertakes the equivalent of more than a 100 consultant-years of activity across each of the
faculties of the College (Engineering, Medicine, Natural Sciences and the Business School).
The company is structured into four business units
 Business Development and Marketing Group is responsible for activities related to
business development, project specification, internal and external client relationship
management, contract negotiation (in conjunction with the Contracts Team in the
Business Operations Group), marketing and communications (both web-based and
non-web-based)
 Business Operations Group is responsible for providing project and programme
management and administration services that ensure that projects are completed on
time, to cost and quality. The group is also responsible for contract negotiation (in
conjunction with the Business Development and Marketing Group)
o EU and Large Projects Team is part of the Business Operations Group and is
focussed on projects for EU institutions, including FP7 projects, and other large
projects with complex project and programme management requirements
including consortium management
 Business Support Services Team is responsible for providing business support services
to facilitate the activities of the client-focussed groups. These activities include human
resource, information technology and office management
 Finance Group is responsible for providing all necessary accounting and financial
services to support the company’s activities. It is also responsible for managing certain
special projects
20
The theme teams are responsible for managing and supporting the projects in their area
through the whole project lifecycle including business development, project specification,
contract negotiation, project and programme management and administration.
The directors of the each of the theme teams report directly to the Managing Director.
3
RANGE OF SERVICES
Imperial Consultants facilitates consulting and knowledge transfer projects of all kinds, large
and small, for researchers at Imperial College with government, commercial and third sector
clients, from around the world from London-based SMEs to large global corporations.
Imperial Consultants is also responsible for managing access to the laboratory and other
specialist technical facilities at Imperial College. Imperial Consultants’ many activities can be
divided into four areas




Consultancy (scientific consultancy, new technology and patent evaluation, expert
advice and training on science and technology trends, feasibility studies)
Testing and Analysis
Project management (proposal preparation, commercial tender submission, project
administration and management, organisation of international conferences and
meetings, office in Brussels)
Expert witness (courtroom appearances, patent disputes, forensic testing, civil
litigation, public enquiries, report writing, expert panels, medico-legal reports)
Section 2
GRANTHAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON
Consistently rated amongst the world's best universities, Imperial College London is a
science-based institution with a reputation for excellence in teaching and research. Innovative
research at the College explores the interface between science, medicine, engineering and
business, delivering practical solutions that improve quality of life and the environment underpinned by a dynamic enterprise culture.
In keeping with the core of the College’s expertise and ethos, the Grantham Institute was
founded with a mandate to drive forward climate change related research, translating this
into impacts and communicating our knowledge to help shape decision-making. The Institute
is already integrating researchers and capabilities from all areas of the college necessary to
tackle the challenges of climate change, through which we will work to offer practical
scientific and technical knowledge of the highest quality.
21
The institute has four core themes on which it focuses its resources:

Earth Systems Science – improving our understanding & modelling of key processes
that will determine future climate; examining biosphere-atmosphere interactions &
feedbacks.

Risks, Extremes & Irreversible Change – improving our understanding of the
likelihood of extreme events & the potential for abrupt climate change; examining the
impact of these events and changes on the biodiversity & ecosystems; understanding
the limits of natural adaptive change; informing the design of resilient human
infrastructure and systems.

Sustainable Futures – catalysing the transition to a low-carbon economy;
investigating natural mitigation & the potential for carbon storage in ecosystems;
developing policy & market frameworks to drive innovation forward, addressing social
& economic constraints.

Vulnerable Ecosystems & Human Wellbeing – understanding the pressures &
consequences of climate change on ecosystems; assist in the development of
sustainable management plans & policy mechanisms.
Section 3
UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III, MADRID – SPAIN
Carlos III University of Madrid (UC3M) is a public university founded in 1989. Since its
foundation, research has been one of the fundamental pillars of activity at UC3M, earning the
university a national reputation for its research efficiency. UC3M holds second place in
participation in the EU Framework Programme (standardized data by number of permanent
researchers) and second in average number of publications per permanent researcher in the
period 2002-2006 (Web of Science). Recently (Report 2009 of CNEAI-National Commission
for Evaluation of Research Activity), UC3M has reached the top of the Spain universities in
research activity.
The Department of Economics at UC3M has been consistently ranked among the top 3
economics departments in the country. The department is distinguished by its international
character and an intellectually stimulating atmosphere. The department hosts regular
seminars and workshops. Faculty members have organized several international conferences
which received generous funding from Spanish and EU sources. The economics department
offers a PhD Program that has been awarded the Quality Distinction of the Spanish Ministry of
Education and Science. The program is part of the prestigious ENTER (European Network for
Training in Economic Research) inter-university network and recruits students competitively
from all parts of the world.
22
4 PROJECT TEAM
The research team is unique in its experience and expertise. All three Principal Investigators
have worked on other government department sponsored projects before and have proven
that they can comply with the terms of government-sponsored work. They have all presented
in various government department seminars showing that they are able to communicate their
research work in a policy context. As outlined in Section 6 of the Proposal, this team’s
knowledge and skills makes it perfectly suited for carrying out this review. Their CVs are
available in the Annex.
Dr Ralf Martin is currently an Assistant Professor in the Imperial College Business School and
is also an Associate of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and at the Centre for
Economic Performance (CEP) of the London School of Economics. He has a PhD in Economics
from the London School of Economics. Pioneering the use of Business Micro Data from
government sources in the UK, he has worked on analysing determinants of firm level
productivity as well as the development of econometric methods for that purpose. More
recently his focus is on econometric evaluation climate change policies: he is one of the lead
researchers of the only micro-econometric evaluation of the UK Climate Change Levy and
Climate Change agreements, which was funded by the ESRC. More recently he co-directed a
comprehensive study into the European Emissions Trading system involving more than 800
interviews with European Managers on Climate Change related issues. He is also conducting
research on Climate Change related innovation using patent data. He regularly participates in
debates with policy makers at the UK and European level on both climate change and
innovation and productivity policies.
Dr Mirabelle Muûls is a Research Fellow in the Business School and the Grantham Institute
for Climate Change at Imperial College. She gained her PhD in Economics at the London School
for Economics in 2007 and remains an associate at the Centre for Economic Performance. Her
research focuses on climate policies and energy efficiency at the level of firms and codirected
a European wide project analysing the EU Emissions Trading System. The results of this
research have been presented widely within policy spheres, including the European
Commission and DECC. In 2006, she took part in a Department of Trade and Industrycommissioned study of multinationals based on ONS data. She also worked during her PhD as
an Economist at the National Bank of Belgium.
Dr Ulrich Wagner is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at UC3M,
specializing in environmental economics, industrial organization and public finance.
Dr Wagner's recent work investigates the impact of climate policy on energy use, economic
performance, and innovation. He studies the behavior of manufacturing firms in various
European countries using micro data from official sources, data from commercial databases,
23
and original data obtained through interviews with managers, as well as combinations thereof.
Dr Wagner has taught environmental economics at the graduate and undergraduate levels at
Yale University and Carlos III University. He has been a consultant for the OECD and for the
World Bank and is a co-editor of Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.
Dr Wagner holds a PhD in economics from Yale University.
24
5 REFEREES
A. XXX
B. XXX
25
ANNEX 1: CURRICULUM VITAE OF ACADEMICS
RALF MARTIN
Key Skills
Econometric Analysis of Firm Level data; Econometric Programme Evaluation
Main Fields of Interest
Climate Change Policy, Innovation Policy, Evaluation of government policies for the business sector
Current Position
Assistant Professor of Economics, Imperial College Business School, London (from 2011)
Previous Positions
Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), London School Economics. Established
Climate Change as a research area at the CEP (2008 - 2011)
Research Officer, CEP, (2005-2008)
Temporary Lecturer (Introduction to Econometrics) in the Environmental Policy and Economics Master’s
Programme at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London (2006-2008)
Research Associate, Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College London (20042005)
Researcher at the Centre for Research into Business Activity (CeRiBA, www.ceriba.org.uk) based at the
Office of National Statistics (ONS). Developed the database structure for the business micro data that is now
being offered by the ONS through its Virtual Micro-data Lab (VML) (2001-2005)
Education
1999-2005 PhD in Economics at the London School of Economics (LSE). Topic: Providing Evidence Base from
Business Microdata – Methods and Results. Supervisor: Stephen Nickell. Examiners: Steve Bond, Jacques
Mairesse
1998-1999 MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics at the LSE.
1996–2000 Master’s Programme in International Economic Studies & Quantitative Economics at Maastricht
University
1993-1995 "Grundstudium" (Basic Studies) in Economics at Humboldt-University Berlin, Germany
Journal Publications
Ralf Martin, Mirabelle Muuls, Laure de Preux and Ulrich Wagner (2011), Anatomy of a Paradox: Management
Practices, Organizational Structure and Energy Efficiency, Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management, forthcoming
Nick Bloom, Christos Genakos, Ralf Martin and Raffaella Sadun (2010), Modern management: Good for the
environment or just hot air?, Economic Journal ?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544),
pages 551-572, 05.
Chiara Criscuolo and Ralf Martin (2009), Multinationals and US Productivity Leadership, Review of Economics
and Statistics May 2009, 91(2): 263–281.
26
Chiara Criscuolo, Jonathan Haskel and Ralf Martin (2004), Import Competition, Productivity, and Restructuring
in UK Manufacturing, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 20, Issue 3, Autumn 2004, pages 393-408.
Other Papers
Productivity Spreads, Market Power Spreads and
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0965.pdf.
Trade,
2010,
CEP
Discussion
Paper
965,
Why is the US so Energy Intensive? Evidence from US Multinationals in the UK, 2010, CEP Discussion Paper 965,
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0965.pdf.
The Impacts of the Climate Change Levy on Business: Evidence from Micro-data, with Laure de Preux and Ulrich
Wagner, CEP Discussion Paper 917, LSE, 2009.
Climate
policy
and
innovation:
Evidence
from
patent
data,
with
Ulrich
Wagner,
mimeo,
2009,
http://www.ralfmartin.me.uk/pub/RalfMartin/PatentsCCL/ei_may09.pdf.
Productivity Dispersion, Competition and Productivity Measurement, 2008, CEP Discussion Paper 0692.
The effect of industrial policy on corporate performance: Evidence from panel data, with Chiara Criscuolo, Henry
Overman
and
John
van
Reenen,
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/textonly/_new/staff/vanreenen/RSA_final.pdf.
mimeo
2007,
Distance to Which Frontier? Evidence on Productivity Convergence from International Firm-level Data, joint with
Eric
Bartelsman
and
Jonathan
Haskel,
2006,
CEPR
Discussion
Paper
No.
7032,
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=7032
TFP
without
capital
stocks,
2005,
http://www.ceriba.org.uk/bin/view/CERIBA/TFPwithoutCapital
CeRiBA
mimeo,
Globalisation, ICT and the Nitty Gritty of Plant Level Datasets, CEP Discussion Paper No CEPDP0653,
September 2004
Reports, Data Manuals, etc.
Longitudinal Micro Data Study of Selected BERR Business Support Programmes, mimeo LSE 2006, joint with
Chiara Criscuolo, Henry Overman and John Van Reenen.
Does global size matter for productivity of MNEs?, joint with Chiara Cricuolo and Mirabelle Muuls, DTI
economic report, 2006, http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file34308.pdf
UK
plant
level
energy
data,
DTI
https://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file28177.pdf
Occasional
Paper
No.
5,
April
2006,.
Economic Sense and Non-sense of Carbon Mitigation Policies, February 2006, CEP Policy Briefing,
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/briefings/pa_climate_change.pdf
Building the evidence base for productivity policy using business data linking, joint with Chiara Criscuolo and
Jonathan Haskel, Economic Trends No. 600, November 2004
Building
the
Capital
Stock,
2003,
CeRiBA
Data
Guide,
http://www.ceriba.org.uk/bin/view/CERIBA/BuildCapStock
Business Data Linking: an Introduction, joint with Matthew Barnes, Economic Trends No. 581, April 2002,
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/economic_trends/business_data_linking.pdf
27
Work in Progress
Climate Change Related Innovation - Displacement effects and giant shoulders (with Philippe Aghion, Antoine
Dechezleprêtre and John van Reenen)
The EU ETS - A firm level assessment (with Mirabelle Mûuls, Laure de Preux and Ulrich Wagner)
Climate Change Policies and Management Practices (with Mirabelle Mûuls, Laure de Preux and Ulrich Wagner)
On the decay of agglomeration spill-overs (with Steve Gibbons and Daniel Graham),
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/gibbons/Papers/Agglomeration%20and%20Distance%20Decay%20Jan%202009.p
df
Absolution by Innovation? - Willingness to pay for climate change related R&D (Susana Mourato and George
MacKerron)
Software
VARMU: A firm level TFP estimator allowing for firm specific market power, STATA code,
http://www.ralfmartin.me.uk/bin/view/RalfMartin/VarMu
TrueMethod:
a
structural
TFP
http://www.ralfmartin.me.uk/bin/view/RalfMartin/TrueAdo
GroupDef:
a
STATA
command
to
determine
estimator
double
for
fixed
effects
STATA,
groups,
http://www.ceriba.org.uk/bin/view/CERIBA/GroupDef
Scholarships
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow 2008-2011
ESRC Postdoctoral Fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) 2005 –2006
PhD scholar of the "Studienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes" (German National Scholarship Foundation) 200001
Scholar of the "Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes" 1995-1999
Selected Research grants and commissioned work
European Climate Change Foundation (ECF) (£85K) “The EU ETS - A firm level assessment / £85K
ESRC small grant (£55K) "The Effects of the Climate Change Levy and Climate Change Agreements on
Businesses in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Microdata" (2007-2008)
OECD Environment and Innovation Directorates, €15.000 towards the survey on climate change and
management practices (2008)
OECD Environment Directorate, €15.000 for a study on the effects of the CCL on patenting (2008)
Department for Trade and Industry (now BERR) £120.000 for econometric evaluation of selected business
support schemes
DTI Seed funding grant (£10.000) for developing the ONS energy micro data. (2005)
DTI Seed funding grant (£10.000) to combine ONS data with external balance sheet data to study the impact
of global size of MNEs (2006)
Other relevant experience
Internship with the European Commission (EC), DG Economic and Financial Affairs (2001)
28
Class Teacher for Macroeconomic Principles at the LSE (2000/01)
Internship with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany. (1998)
Research Assistant at the Institute of Public Finance (Humboldt-University Berlin), (1994-1996)
Recent Invited Presentations and Talks
Electricity Policy Research Group Seminar- University of Cambridge, October 10, 2011
Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam, Labour, Region and Environment Seminar, June 27, 2011
University of Leuven, March 22, 2011
Zentrum fuer Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim, December 2, 2010
European Parliament, Environment Committee, October 6, 2010.
HM Treasury Economists’ conference, September 9, 2010, London
Resources for the Future, Washington, August 3, 2010
Centre for Economic Studies (CES), US Census Bureau, Washington, August 2, 2010
Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), March 22, 2010
Helsinki Center of Economic Research, Economics Research Seminar, February 12, 2010.
Bruegel “Energy and Climate Change Exchange” Seminar, Sept 28, 2009, Brussels
Aston Businesses School, Economics & Strategy Group Research Seminar, June 3, 2009
German Institute of Economic Research (DIW), AGF Lunchtime Keynote, Feb 25, 2009
Policy Studies Institute (PSI) Seminar Series Jan 5, 2009, London
Recent Conference Presentations
European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Annual Meeting, June 2011, Rome.
American Economics Association Meeting, Jan 2011, Denver.
Comparative Analysis of Enterprise (micro) Data (CAED) Conference, October 2010, London
Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, August 2010, Glasgow
NBER Summer Institute 2010, July 2010, Boston
European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Conference, June 2010, Montreal
German Institute of Economic Research (DIW), “End of year Summit”, Dec 17, 2009, Berlin
HMRC, “International Conference on Institutional Taxation Analysis”, September 21, 2009, London
Comparative Analysis of Enterprise (micro) Data (CAED) Conference, October 2009, Tokyo
Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, August 2009, Barcelona
European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Conference, June 2009, Amsterdam
Recent Consulting
Committee on Climate Change, Adaptation sub- committee, Report on the impact of weather events on
business performance in the UK. 2011,
(http://downloads.theccc.org.uk.s3.amazonaws.com/ASC%202nd%20Report/LSE_final.pdf)
29
Committee on Climate Change, Report on Climate Change related patenting,
(http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/low-carbon-innovation)
Commission on environmental markets and economic performance (CEMEP, setup by DEFRA and DTI),
advising and representing John van Reenen in most commission meetings; since Feb 2007.
Welsh Assembly, Evaluation of Regional Support policies in Wales; from July 2007
Presentations to DTI on evaluation of their support programmes; Jan – Oct 2006.
Recent Media and public appearances
CEPS, ECF and IDDRI Panel discussion: ETS and Innovation: how to stimulate Europe’s competitiveness,
October 7, 2010, Brussels.
Saving the Economy and Saving the Planet - An ESRC Public Lecture and Panel Discussion, April 22, 2009,
London, http://www.esrc.ac.uk/ESRCInfoCentre/PO/releases/2009/april/planet.aspx.
London Accord Panel Discussion,London School of Economics, Oct 18, 2007: Debate on carbon taxing vs.
carbon trading.
Al-Jazeera News, Nov 1, 2006: Commenting the Stern Review
One Word Radio, Nov 5, 2006: Panel discussion of Stern Review
Blog posts on http://cep-blogspot.blogspot.com/, http://www.voxeu.com/,
http://www.opendemocracy.net/
Language and computer skills
German (Native), English (fluent), French (Basic)
STATA, SAS, Matlab, Gauss, SQL, Perl (basic)
Other Interests
Cycling, Windsurfing, Piano, Yoga
30
Mirabelle Muûls
Imperial College London
Grantham Institute for Climate Change
London SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom
Date of Birth: March 27th 1977 - Belgian, married, three children
tel:
+44 (0)20 7594 8452
mobile: +44 (0)77 8917 3232
fax:
+44 (0)20 7594 9668
e-mail: [email protected]
EDUCATION:
2001 – 2007
London School of Economics - PhD in Economics
Thesis: “The Interaction between Firms and Governments in Climate Change and International Trade”
Supervisors: Professor Tony Venables (until September 2006) and Dr Stephen Redding
2000 – 2001
London School of Economics - Master of Science in Politics of the World Economy
1999 – 2000
Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium - Master of Arts in Economics
One year Master Degree- first year of the PhD, best Cum Laude,
EMPLOYMENT:
2011 – present Business School and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Leverhulme Early Career Research Fellow
2008 – 2011
Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Research Associate
2006 – 2008
Economics Department, London School of Economics
Tutorial Fellow - International Economics (EC421) and Microeconomics (EC201)
2001 – 2010
University of London External Programme
First and Second marker -– Introduction to Economics
2001 – 2008
Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics
Research Assistant in International Economics
2006 – 2007
Microeconomic Analysis Service, National Bank of Belgium
Research Associate
2001 – 2006
Economics Department, London School of Economics
Class teacher - International Economics (EC315) and Microeconomics (EC202)
2005 – 2006
Department for Trade and Industry, Seed Funding: ONS matched data base of business microdata:
Joint work with Dr Ralf Martin and Dr Chiara Criscuolo
2002 – 2005
CLIMNEG research group - CORE - Université Catholique de Louvain
Research Assistant on Integrated Assessment Models on Climate Change for Pr. H. Tulkens
1999 – 2000
Facultés Universitaires Saint-Louis, Brussels
Class Teacher in Introduction to Economics, first year undergraduate
OTHER AFFILIATION:
Associate, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics (September 2008 – present)
PUBLICATIONS
“Understanding Cross-Country Differences in Exporter Premia: Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries”, The
International Study Group on Exports and Productivity, Review of World Economics, 2008, Vol. 144 – 4, pp.596635
“Imports and Exports at the Level of the Firm: Evidence from Belgium”
(with Mauro Pisu), World Economy,
2009, Vol 32-5, pp. 692-734
“Priority research areas for ecosystem services in a changing world” (with Emily Nicholson, Georgina Mace, E.J.
Milner-Gulland et al.), Journal of Applied Ecology, 2009, Vol.46, pp.1139-1144
31
“Anatomy of a Paradox: Management Practices, Organizational Structure and Energy Efficiency”, (joint with Ralf
Martin, Ulrich Wagner and Laure de Preux), CEP Discussion Paper No. 1039, December 2010, forthcoming
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
WORKING PAPERS
“The effect of investment on bargaining positions. Over-investment in the case of international agreements on
climate change”, 2010 (latest version) submitted
“Exporters and credit constraints. A firm-level approach”, NBB Working Paper No. 139, September 2007
“A Swing-State Theory of Trade Protection in the Electoral College” (with Dimitra Petropoulou), CEP Discussion
Paper No. 849, revise and resubmit, Canadian Journal of Economics
“Does global size matter for productivity of MNEs” (with Ralf Martin and Chiara Criscuolo), DTI working paper
n°34308, 2006
“An Economic Evaluation in Integrated Assessment Models of Damages Induced by Climate Change”, MA in
Economics dissertation, August 2000
WORK IN PROGRESS
“Climate change policies and Business in Europe: Evidence from interviewing managers”, (with Anderson, B.,
Leib, J., Martin, R., McGuigan, M., de Preux, L. B., and Wagner, U. J. ), CEP Occasional Paper No.27, March
2011.
“Carbon markets, carbon prices and innovation: Evidence from Interviews with Managers”, (with Martin, R. and
Wagner, U.J.), mimeo,
Efficient Allocation of Free Allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System: A Firm-level Analysis.”, (with
Martin, R., de Preux, L. B., and Wagner, U. J.), mimeo, June 2011
“Emissions Trading and Economic Performance: Evidence from French Firm-Level Data”, (with Martin, R. and
Wagner, U.J.)
"The sensitivity of UK manufacturing firms to extreme weather events", June 2011, Adaptation Sub-Committee
report supporting research, (with Martin, R. and Ward, A.)
POLICY CONTRIBUTIONS
“Still time to reclaim the European Union Emissions Trading System for the European tax payer “, CEP and
Grantham Institute for Climate Change Policy Brief, April 2010
“Do swing states influence US trade policy?” (with Dimitra Petropoulou), CentrePiece, 13 (2), (Autumn 2008),
21-23
“The happy few: the internationalisation of European firms. New facts based on firm-level evidence” Contributed
to report by MAYER, T. and OTTAVIANO, G. (European Firms and International Markets), Bruegel and CEPR,
September 2007
RECENT PRESENTATIONS AT CONFERENCES OR SEMINARS:
Department for Climate Change, December 2010 and February 2011
European Parliament, Environment Committee, October 6, 2010
Comparative Analysis of Enterprise (micro) Data (CAED) Conference, October 2010, London
Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, VU Amsterdam,
June 24-27, 2009
Centre for Economic Performance Annual Conference, Brighton, May 2009
NCCCR Conference on the International Dimensions of Climate Policies, University of Bern, January 2009
32
Merton Seminar in International Trade, University of Oxford, January 2009
Empirical Investigations in International Trade, University of Colorado at Boulder, October 2008
“Trade and the Euro”, NCCR Trade Regulation workshop, Bern, September 2008
International Economics Seminar, London School of Economics, July 2008
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, Warwick, April 2007
Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting of the AEA (Chicago, January 2007 - presentation in
the session on Constitutional Approaches to Explaining Trade Policy)
Department of Trade and Industry workshop, March 2006
European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, Dublin, September 2005
European Association of Environmental and Resource Economics Summer School on “Dynamic Models of Growth
and the Environment”, Venice, July 2004
Rencontres de l’Environnement, CORE (UCL) and Paris-Sorbonne, Paris, June 2004
University of Milan summer school on "Political Economy of Trade Policy and Development: Theories and
Institutions", August 2003
European Doctoral Programme Jamborees (Paris 2001, London 2002, Barcelona 2003, Florence 2005)
International Economics Field Seminar, London School of Economics, 2002, 2003 and 2004
REFEREE:
Canadian Journal of Economics, Louvain Economic Review, Journal of Economic Geography, Economic Systems
GRANTS, HONOURS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
2009-2010: European Climate Foundation, “Climate Change Policy and Business in Europe: Evidence from
Interviewing Managers”, £84,000
2002-2006: Economic and Social Research Council studentship
2002-2003: LSE Economics Department Teaching Prize
2001-2002: European doctoral program scholarship
2000-2001: Rotary International subvention
1999-2000: Best results of the Master in Economics at Université Catholique de Louvain
LANGUAGES AND COMPUTER SKILLS
French: Native language, English, German and Spanish: Fluent (written and oral), Dutch: Fair
Software: MS Office, Mac OS X, Internet Explorer, SPSS, Arcview (GIS), GAMS, Stata, SAS
33
Ulrich Wagner
Born on March 19, 1976 in Aachen, Germany
German citizen, married (1 son, 1 daughter)
Current Employment:
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, September 2008-
Affiliations:
Research Associate, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, June 2007Research Affiliate, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, January 2010-
Previous Employment:
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, 2006-08
Education:
Ph.D., Economics, Yale University, 2006
M.Phil., Economics, Yale University, 2004
M.A., Economics, Yale University, 2002
Diplom, Economics (sehr gut 1.3), University of Kiel, 2001
Vordiplom, Economics, University of Hamburg, 1998
Visiting Ph.D. Student, CEMFI Madrid, Summer 2004
Exchange Student, Economics, University of Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, Spring 1998
Publications:
1.
The Design of Stable International Environmental Agreements: Economic Theory and Political Economy, Journal of
Economic Surveys 15(3): 377-411, July 2001.
Reprinted as Chapter 5 of “Current Issues in Environmental Economics”, Nick Hanley and Colin J. Roberts (eds.), Blackwell
Publishing, 2002.
2.
The Voluntary Provision of a Pure Public Good? Another Look at CFC Emissions and the Montreal Protocol, Oxford
Economic Papers 61(1): 183-196, January 2009.
3.
Agglomeration Effects in Foreign Direct Investment and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, (with Christopher Timmins),
Environmental and Resource Economics 43(2): 231-256, June 2009.
4.
Energy Use Patterns in German Industry: Evidence from Plant-level Data (with Sebastian Petrick and Katrin Rehdanz),
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik vol. 231(3): 379-414, 2011.
5.
“Anatomy of a Paradox: Management Practices, Organizational Structure and Energy Efficiency”, (with Ralf Martin,
Mirabelle Muûls and Laure de Preux), forthcoming at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Working Papers:
6.
“The Impacts of the Climate Change Levy on Manufacturing: Evidence from Microdata”, (joint with Ralf Martin and
Laure de Preux), NBER Working Paper No.17443, September 2011. Submitted.
7.
“Expectation-driven Climate Treaties with Breakthrough Technologies” (joint with Daiju Narita), Kiel Working Paper
1732, September 2011. Submitted.
8.
“Strategic Complementarity in a Dynamic Game of Timing: The Case of the Montreal Protocol”, mimeo, July 2011.
Submitted.
9.
“Climate Change Policy and Business in Europe: Evidence from Interviewing Managers” (joint with Barry Anderson,
Jörg Leib, Ralf Martin, Marty McGuigan, Mirabelle Muûls and Laure de Preux), CEP Occasional Paper No.27, March
2011.
10.
“Efficient Allocation of Free Allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System: A Firm-level Analysis”, (with Ralf
Martin, Mirabelle Muûls and Laure de Preux), mimeo, June 2011.
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11.
“Carbon Markets, Carbon Prices and Innovation: Evidence from Interviews with Managers” (joint with Ralf Martin and
Mirabelle Muûls), mimeo, January 2011.
12.
“Interactions between Selected Energy Use and Production Characteristics of German Manufacturing Plants”, (with
Sebastian Petrick and Katrin Rehdanz), mimeo, February 2011.
13.
“Climate Change Policies and Innovation: Evidence from Patent Counts” (joint with Ralf Martin), mimeo, June 2009.
Work in Progress:
14.
“The Impacts of the EU Emissions Trading System on Business: Evidence from German Manufacturing Plants”, with
Sebastian Petrick and Katrin Rehdanz.
15.
“Emissions Trading and Economic Performance: Evidence from French Firm-Level Data”, with Ralf Martin and
Mirabelle Muûls.
Research Grants:
ESRC grant #ES/J006742/1, "A Firm-level evaluation of the European Union Emissions Trading System" (with Antoine
Dechezlepretre, Ralf Martin and Mirabelle Muûls), 2012-13
Spanish Ministry for Science and Education grant #SEJ2007-62908 "Contrastes de Especificación de Modelos Econométricos"
(PI: Miguel Ángel Delgado González), 2007-2012
ESRC grant #RES-000-22-2711, "The Effects of the Climate Change Levy and Climate Change Agreements on Businesses in
the United Kingdom: Evidence from Microdata" (with Ralf Martin), 2007-08
Fellowships, Honors, and Awards:
Juan de la Cierva Fellowship, Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation, 2009Earth Institute Fellowship, Columbia University, 2006-08
Joseph L. Fisher Dissertation Fellowship, Resources for the Future, 2005-06
John F. Enders Fund Award, Yale University, 2005
Leitner Award in International and Comparative Political Economy, Yale University, 2005
European Recovery Program Fellowship, German Ministry of Economics and Labor 2003-05
Doctoral Fellowship, Yale University, 2001-06
Economics departmental award, Yale University, 2001-05
Godin Guitars Scholarship, Berklee College of Music, Summer 2004
Holsteiner Studienpreis for academic merit (university wide), University of Kiel, 2001
Erich Schneider Award for highest GPA in graduating class, University of Kiel, 2001
Erich Schneider Award for best Diplom thesis, University of Kiel, 2000
German National Academic Foundation fellowship 1996-2001, 2003-2005
ERASMUS scholarship by the European Union for studies in Paris, 1998
Teaching Experience:
Instructor (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
Mercados y Medioambiente, Fall 2010, Fall 2011
Markets and the Environment, Fall 2010, Fall 2011
Economía Industrial (Undergraduate), Spring 2009, Spring 2010
Teaching Fellow (Yale University):
Economics of Natural Resource Management (Masters), Professor Sheila Olmstead, Spring 2005
Economics of Natural Resources (undergraduate/PhD), Professor Robert Mendelsohn, Fall 2003
Certificate, Fundamentals of Teaching in the Social Sciences, September 2004
Departmental Service:
Initiator and coordinator, economics computing cluster at Carlos III, 2009Coordinator, environmental economics class (BA economics core curriculum), 2010-
Other Professional Experience:
Co-Editor, Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2010Program Committee Member, Summer Conferences of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2011 and
2012
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Consultant:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Environment Directorate, 2008-09
The World Bank, Mexico Air Quality Management Team, 2002-03
The World Bank, Latin America and Caribbean Environment Department, Summer 2002
Research Assistant:
Professor Ernesto Zedillo, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, 2004-2006
Professor Oona Hathaway, Yale Law School, 2004-2005
Professor Gernot Klepper, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 1998-2001
Other:
Rurtalwerkstätten gGmbH Düren. Conscientious objector to military service 1995-1996
Conference and Workshop Presentations:
AERE Summer Conference, Seattle, WA, June 9-10, 2011
International Forum on Environmental Sustainability, University of Exeter, April 14, 2011
NBER Summer Institute, Environmental and Energy Economics, July 30, 2010.
SURED 2010 conference, Ascona, June 7-10, 2010.
AERNA fourth conference, Gran Canaria, June 2-5, 2010.
Roundtable on Carbon Pricing and Investment Response, CPI/DIW Berlin, February 5, 2010
ASSA meetings, AERE sessions, Atlanta, January 5, 2010
Workshop on Political Economy and the Environment, UCL/CORE, October 22, 2009
Workshop on Globalization and the Environment, Kiel Institute, September 25, 2009
Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, VU Amsterdam, June 24-27,
2009
NBER Summer Institute Energy and Environmental Economics (research sketch), July 21, 2008
North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Duke University, June 21, 2007
Coalition for Rainforest Nations, Economic Seminar, Columbia GSB, January 15, 2007
NBER Summer Institute Public Policy and the Environment (research sketch), July 28, 2005
NAREA/CAES annual meetings, June 21, 2004
AERNA first conference, June 19, 2004
NBER Summer Institute Public Policy and the Environment (research sketch), July 28, 2003
Invited Seminars:
U Alicante (2008) UC Berkeley Agricultural and Resource Economics (2008) U Carlos III de Madrid (2008, 2010) CEMFI
(2004, 2009) CCHS/CSIC (2010) Colby College (2008) Columbia U (2008) Columbia Earth Institute (2008) FEDEA (2008)
IESE Business School (2008) Kiel Institute for the World Economy (2003) Kiel U (2011) New York University Wagner
School of Public Service OECD Joint Meetings on Tax and the Environment (2009) Paris School of Economics, U PantheonSorbonne (2010) Toulouse School of Economics (2009) Yale U (2003, 2005-2007)
Referee Service:
American Economic Review
American Political Science Review
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy
British Journal of Political Science
China Economic Review
Ecological Economics
Economic Inquiry
Environmental and Resource Economics
The Energy Journal
European Journal of Operational Research
Human Development Report
Journal of Business and Economics Statistics
Journal of Public Economics
Journal of Public Policy
Global Environmental Change
International Economic Review
International Journal of the Economics of Business
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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Journal of the European Economic Association
Oxford Economic Papers
Scandinavian Journal of Economics
University of Chicago Press
Language Skills:
German (native) English (fluent) French (proficient) Spanish (fluent) Portuguese (basic)
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ANNEX 2: ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS REQUESTED
Formal declaration of offer
Statement of non-collusion
Copies of Professional Indemnity insurance policy, Public Liability insurance policy, Employer’s
Liability insurance policy and certificate of insurance under the Employers’ Liability (Compulsory
Insurance) Regulations (SI 1998 No. 2573).
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