RFPEG2013
PRE-BID MEETING
RFPEG2013 – Pre-Bid meeting January 9, 2014
Presentation by Derek Davis – Public Utilities Commission
Historic Demand and Energy
Generation Planning Perspective -
• Demand Growth
4.34% PA
Demand & Energy 2002 to 2012
600.00
90.00
80.00
500.00
70.00
• Net Gen Growth
5.3% PA
60.00
50.00
300.00
MW
GWhs
400.00
40.00
200.00
30.00
20.00
100.00
• LF Improved 67% to
73.5%
10.00
-
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Net Generation & Purchases
315.24
347.76
377.86
403.82
417.68
438.71
463.59
472.81
483.27
492.84
528.17
Total Sales
278.95
307.55
329.98
349.73
359.59
381.76
406.99
417.37
426.23
428.49
462.17
Maximum Demand
53.70
57.40
61.10
63.50
66.60
70.00
74.30
76.20
80.60
79.30
82.09
Year
Net Generation & Purchases
Total Sales
Maximum Demand
-
• Losses Maintained
approx. 12%
Generation Planning Perspective -
Sources of Generation 2012
• Observations
SOURCES OF GENERATION (TOTAL 528 GWHS)
• Low Hydrology Year – 15%
below average
Hydro
40%
HFO & Diesel
3%
Imported from Mexico
45%
Other
55%
Bagasse
12%
• Generation From Bagasse also
Low by 15%
• Prices from Mexico Higher
than expected by 30% at
average US$ 0.18/KWh
Demand and Energy Forecast
done by SIEMENS 2009 LCEP Study
Generation Planning Perspective -
• SIEMENS Methodology
• Forecast Period 2007 to
2028
• Regression with GDP and
Population – Full system
• Zone Forecast based on
historical regression
• Consideration of additional
Special Customers
Demand Forecast for Generation Planning
PUC – (Growth:- Lo – 1.5% - Expected – 4% - Hi – 6.5%)
Generation Planning Perspective -
Year
Units
BEL System Maximum Demand
1.50% Low
Forecast
4.00% Medium
Forecast
6.50% Hi Forecast
MW
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
82.09
82.09
83.32
84.57
85.84
87.13
88.43
89.76
91.10
92.47
93.86
95.27
96.70
82.09
85.37
88.79
92.34
96.03
99.87
103.87
108.02
112.34
116.84
121.51
126.37
82.09
87.42
93.11
99.16
105.60
112.47
119.78
127.56
135.86
144.69
154.09
164.11
Generation Planning Perspective
- Planning Criteria
• LOLP – Loss of Load Probability
• The expected value of the number of days in a year in which the available generation cannot supply the
system peak load. There are many ways to calculate this indicator, some more accurate than others.
• Percent Reserve
• The reserve Generation (positive or negative) as a percentage of annual peak demand
• There is correlation between these 2 indicators for a particular Power System
• For BEL’s Grid system - LOLP of 3 days/year equivalent to approximately 30% Reserve
• LOLP usually gives medium to long term performance of Generation System. Short term usually different.
• For BEL’s Grid System 2013 there were outages but no cases of outages due to lack of generation
Generation Planning Perspective
- Generation Requirements
Firm Capacity Analysis BEL's Power Grid 2012 to 2023
Year
Units
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Avaiable Firm Capacity From ALL Sources
Cascade Hydro (Chal/Moll/VACA)
BELCOGEN - Bagasse and 2 by 2 MW HFO Units
Hydro Maya - Hydro
BEL Gas Turbine - Diesel
BAL/ BAPCOL - 2 by HFO Units
JICA - Solar Facility - 480 KWp
Mexico - CFE - Interconnection
Firm Capacity Generation Additions RFP 2013 (projected)
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
17.66
7.00
20.00
50.00
-
17.66
7.00
20.00
15.00
50.00
-
17.66
7.00
20.00
15.00
50.00
-
17.66
11.00
20.00
15.00
50.00
-
17.66
11.00
20.00
15.00
50.00
25.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
25.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
25.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
40.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
40.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
40.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
60.00
17.66
13.50
20.00
15.00
50.00
60.00
Total Firm in Country
Total Firm incl. CFE
MW
MW
44.66
94.66
59.66
109.66
59.66
109.66
63.66
113.66
88.66
138.66
91.16
141.16
91.16
141.16
106.16
156.16
106.16
156.16
106.16
156.16
126.16
176.16
126.16
176.16
BEL System Maximum Demand
Low Forecast
Medium Forecast
Hi Forecast
MW
82.09
82.09
82.09
82.09
83.32
85.37
87.42
84.57
88.79
93.11
85.84
92.34
99.16
87.13
96.03
105.60
88.43
99.87
112.47
89.76
103.87
119.78
91.10
108.02
127.56
92.47
112.34
135.86
93.86
116.84
144.69
95.27
121.51
154.09
96.70
126.37
164.11
Low
Med
Hi
Percent Reserve - In Country
%
%
%
-46%
-46%
-46%
-28%
-30%
-32%
-29%
-33%
-36%
-26%
-31%
-36%
2%
-8%
-16%
3%
-9%
-19%
2%
-12%
-24%
17%
-2%
-17%
15%
-6%
-22%
13%
-9%
-27%
32%
4%
-18%
30%
0%
-23%
Low
Med
Hi
Percent reserve Incl. CFE Mexico
%
%
%
15%
15%
15%
32%
28%
25%
30%
24%
18%
32%
23%
15%
59%
44%
31%
60%
41%
26%
57%
36%
18%
71%
45%
22%
69%
39%
15%
66%
34%
8%
85%
45%
14%
82%
39%
7%
1.50%
4.00%
6.50%
Generation Planning Perspective
- Observations
Median Forecast (4% per annum) used to determine Generation additions
Initial period shows generation reserves as inadequate <30%
Earliest addition possible assumed to be in 2016
Consideration of in-country sources very important
Percent reserve of -10% to be maintained
This allows System Generation + Self-Generation of customers to meet demand
Generation Planning Perspective
-
Candidate Units Firm Power – RFPEG2013
• Firm Power – Least Cost Expansion Plan to be developed (Dispatch Simulation Exercise)
• 60 MW over the period from 2013 to 2023
• Eligible Bids/Proposals under RFPEG2013 become candidate Units
Hydro
With storage and effective
Firm capacity
Located on the Macal River
– Challilo Dam provides
storage
Located on other Rivers –
Needs Storage
Thermal
Diesel/HFO
Natural Gas
Coal/LPG???
Dedicated contracts with
plants in Mexico - Wheeling
Generation Planning Perspective
- Other Candidate Units – RFPEG2013
Bio-mass
bagasse
Cohune Nuts
Other Sources – Grass
etc.
Energy Efficiency – Not a part
of RFPEG2013 – GOB initiative
Lighting/Roadway Lighting
Air-conditioning
Water Heating
Generation Planning Perspective
-
Evaluation Firm Power under RFPEG2013
• Firm Power Bids Received to be analyzed to ensure responsiveness and feasible and ranked based
on evaluation criteria
• Then used in a 15 Year planning dispatch simulation exercise to satisfy Grid Generation Reserve
Requirements and minimize the Cost of Power (Total Capacity plus Energy Costs for the 15 Year
period)
• Existing Power Supply contracts must be taken into account
• The flexibility of Dispatch and price of proposals shall ultimately determine the success of
proposals
• Negotiations to be held with bidders whose proposals are a part of the 15 Year Least cost
generation plan
Generation Planning Perspective
-
Candidate Units Intermittent Power – RFPEG2013
• Consideration of non-firm RE sources after Firm Power Analysis - Solar/Wind/Run-of-River Hydro/Etc.
• Grid Power System variable cost to be considered displaced when RE dispatched
• Identification of opportunities to further lower Generation Cost by addition of RE intermittent sources
• Commitment to add 15 MW over the period 2013 to 2023 at lowest possible cost
Solar with/without
Mexico
Intermittent – phased in
System problems if too much
> 15% of peak demand. CFE ?
Wind – with/without
Mexico
Intermittent – phased in System
problems if too much > 15% of
peak demand. CFE ?
Tracking/No Tracking
JICA experience for CF – 16%
Source/Methodology to determine
Wind speed characteristics to be
declared
Generation Planning Perspective
-
Evaluation Intermittent Power under RFPEG2013
• Non-Firm Power Bids Received to be analyzed to ensure responsiveness
and feasible and ranked based on evaluation criteria
• Then used in a 15 Year planning dispatch simulation exercise assuming the
displacement of generation variable costs
• Existing Supply contracts must be taken into account
• The set of non-firm projects totaling 15 MW over the period 2013 to 2023
with LOWEST COST shall be considered for negotiations
Generation Planning Perspective
- Grid Interconnection Costs & Transmission Strengthening
• Grid Interconnection will be required for ALL Projects
• BEL to provide Estimates to be added to proposal costs
• Transmission System Reinforcement
• If needed the BEL to cost for addition to proposal cost
• In some cases Transmission reinforcement is only accelerated
• In the case of acceleration only accelerated cost will be added to proposal
Generation Planning Perspective
- Potential additional opportunities outside the country of Belize
• For such projects developer to identify market
• Developer responsible to get PPA with external parties
• Developer to negotiate wheeling with BEL/PUC if feasible
• GOB may assist
• PUC/BEL not responsible market prices or failure
• No price transfer shall occur under any circumstances to Belize Electricity customers
Generation Planning Perspective
- CFE Mexico Dispatch 2013 to 2023 – The way we see it
Projection CFE Purchases Energy/% of Net generation
350.00
60.00%
300.00
50.00%
250.00
40.00%
GWhs
200.00
30.00%
150.00
20.00%
100.00
10.00%
50.00
-
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Mexico - CFE Purchases
265.65
295.11
326.12
148.10
182.49
218.69
138.56
178.71
220.98
107.81
154.67
CFE Purchases % of Net generation
47.77%
50.39%
52.89%
22.81%
26.69%
30.38%
18.28%
22.39%
26.29%
12.18%
16.60%
Year
0.00%
Generation Planning Perspective
- Belize/Mexico – Long Term Relationship
CFE Mexico will remain important to the
Belize Power System
Spinning Reserve Service
Absorb VARs during Light Load periods
Static VAR Compensator – Voltage Control
Frequency Control/System Black Start/Emergency
Energy sales/Low cost energy sometimes