The link between appraisal and
strategic models
Tony May and Simon Shepherd (ITS)
Project F Objectives
• Enhance existing predictive transport and land use models
 Identify those policy instruments which could most
usefully be incorporated into existing models and develop
and test ways of doing so
• Enhance existing sketch planning models so that they can
be used more effectively and interactively by a wider range
of stakeholders
• Develop our sketch planning models and network
management design tools as pilot strategy generation tools
Ranking of importance*satisfaction
Ranking of Modelling
issues
Combined satisfaction
importance
Score (0-1)[1]
Restraint
0.58
Fares
0.55
Buses
0.53
Land use
0.53
LRT
0.47
Soft measures
0.43
Slow mode
0.42
Roads
0.41
Traffic management
0.36
Information
0.34
[1] Note: The neutral score is 0.3175. Higher scores indicate a barrier. Score 1.0 would indicate Very important and not at all satisfied for all respondents.
Case Studies
• MARS – strategic model – Leeds
• SATURN Various case studies (York
Shrewsbury, Cambridge + theoretical)
• PT-SATURN – Harrogate
• STM – Strathclyde
• STEER – York
• To be presented at a workshop on July 4th
MARS in outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A land use – transport interaction model
Reflecting year on year changes over a (say) 30 year
period
With a simplified representation of spatial structure and
networks
And with behavioural responses linked to a constant
time budget
Using Causal Loop Diagrams
Designed to assess broad strategies interactively
Able to complete a 30 year strategy test within a minute
CLD for the transport model –
commute trips by car in MARS
Workplaces
Employed
population
Car availability +
Population
+
Car ownership
+
Attraction
+
Total commute
trips
Commute cost
other modes
Attractiveness of
other zones
+
+
-Attractiveness+ -
+
Commute trips
by car
+
Total commute
time
+
+
Time per
commute trip
+
Time for other
trips
-
by car
+
+
Time in car
commute
+
B1-
-
Commute cost
by car
+
Fuel cost
B3-
+ Parking search
time
-
B2-
Speed by car
Time per commute
trip by other modes
B4+
-
MARS - completed
•
•
•
•
•
Representation of increased parking
search time due to parking capacity
Over crowding on public transport
Quality factors for bus corridors
Congestion added to the off-peak
Heavy rail model incorporated for urban
stations in Leeds
MARS - planned
•
•
•
•
•
•
Add awareness campaigns as a policy
instrument
Add in population cohort approach
Develop “flight simulator” front-end
Link to Animap facility
Test with Leeds
Hold general workshop on MARS for all
Local Authorities (November 2007)
Links to appraisal
• Designed to output an agreed set of indicators
– Outcome indicators (e.g. CO2)
– Intermediate outcome indicators (e.g. by mode)
– Based on those developed in Project C
• Able to incorporate CBA or MCA objective
functions
• Used elsewhere to identify optimal strategies for a
given set of objectives
Mode Share Off Peak - motorized
Mode Share Peak - motorized
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 16 18
Time (Year)
20
22
24
26
ms car peak : Sim 8_2
ms moto peak : Sim 8_2
ms car peak : Do-Nothing
ms moto peak : Do-Nothing
28
0
30
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 16 18
Time (Year)
20
22
24
26
ms car opeak : Sim 8_2
ms moto opeak : Sim 8_2
ms car opeak : Do-Nothing
ms moto opeak : Do-Nothing
Mode Share Peak - PT - Ped
28
30
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
Mode Share Off Peak - PT - Ped
40
20
20
10
0
0
0
2
4
6
ms pt peak : Sim 8_2
ms slow peak : Sim 8_2
ms pt peak : Do-Nothing
ms slow peak : Do-Nothing
8
10
12
14 16 18
Time (Year)
20
22
24
26
28
30
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
0
2
4
6
ms pt opeak : Sim 8_2
ms slow opeak : Sim 8_2
ms pt opeak : Do-Nothing
ms slow opeak : Do-Nothing
8
10
12
14 16 18
Time (Year)
20
22
24
26
28
30
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
MARS Output GIS (1)
14
MARS Output GIS (2) – example for future use
AniMap interactive
displays animated spatiotemporal information with
open-source software and
open standards (Web
server, PHP, MySQL,
Internet Explorer,
XML_SVG).
„