Quarterly Economic Summary
Aurora’s economy continued to record improving economic conditions through the first quarter of 2015. The
Aurora unemployment rate fell 1.9 percentage points over-the-year to 5 percent. Employment levels
throughout Metro Denver rose 3.6 percent compared with the previous year, representing a 52,900-worker
increase over the previous year’s level. The natural resources and construction and the education and health
services supersectors reported the largest percentage increases in employment between the first quarters of
2014 and 2015, rising 13 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.
Aurora’s home sales continued to improve through the first quarter of the year and the apartment rental market
continued to tighten. Sales of existing homes rose over-the-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 1,372
total sales in the first quarter of 2015. Apartment vacancy rates fell in three of the six Aurora submarkets, and five
of six submarkets reported increases in the average lease rate.
As for commercial real estate, three of the four property types – office, industrial, flex, and retail – reported
vacancy rates that were lower during the first quarter of 2015 than the first quarter of 2014. All four property
types continued to record increases in the average lease rate over-the-year. Aurora’s industrial and retail markets
continued to add rentable square footage to the market during the first quarter of 2015 compared with the prior
year, with the industrial market adding nearly 592,900 square feet.
Aurora Economic Headlines
 According to Tech America Foundation’s Cyberstates 2015, Colorado was ranked third for its technology
employment concentration (9.2 percent) in 2014, third for the tech industries’ contribution to Gross State
Product (GSP) in 2012 (11.3 percent), and ranked ninth for the average wage for technology employees
($101,842). The tech sector added 5,900 jobs between 2013 and 2014 and there were 14,425 tech company
establishments. Colorado ranked 13th for the number of technology patents granted (1,062 grants in 2013), a
7.4 percent increase between 2012 and 2013, and ranked ninth for the amount of venture capital funding
awarded.
 Business Insider ranked Colorado’s economy as the third best in the country. The list was based on six
measures: recent change in housing prices, nonfarm payroll growth, unemployment rate, GDP per capita,
average weekly wage, and state government surplus and deficit. The report stated that Colorado fared well
across all measures, with a December 2014 unemployment rate of 4 percent and a housing price increase of
6.96 percent between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014. North Dakota was named the number one economy
and Texas was ranked second, with both states’ success attributed to their strong energy industries.
 Denver was ranked the third best city for tech startups and workers in the nation by SelfStorage.com. The
company considered local innovation, access to capital, access to educated workers, strength of the local tech
startup scene, and local wage premium. The article stated Denver saw strong growth in utility patents and techstartup jobs, with a decent pool of local scientists, engineers, and businesspeople. The top spot went to
Raleigh, N.C. and Austin, Texas ranked second.
 According to NerdWallet, the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO MSA ranked as the 13th best city for tech jobs.
The study considered the nation’s 370 largest MSAs based on criteria including the number of tech jobs per
1,000 employees and annual mean salary for tech jobs. The Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA was reported to
have 48 tech jobs per 1,000 and an average salary of $94,000 annually.
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 Coldwell Banker Commercial Affiliates ranked Denver as the nation’s top commercial real estate market.
Considering more than 80 markets, the ranking was based on the percentage change in vacancy and rental rates
for the office, retail, and multi-family sectors between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014. The company
attributed Denver’s ranking to record-breaking job growth as well as construction and economic expansion in
energy, healthcare, and technology.
 Rent.com ranked Denver the third best city for college graduates. The list analyzed job potential, percentage of
millennials, lifestyle, and unemployment rate. The report stated that millennials make up 26 percent of
Denver’s population, there are 80 jobs available per 1,000 residents, and an unemployment rate of 4.5 percent,
making the city ideal for college graduates. Washington, DC was ranked the best place for recent graduates
and Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. was ranked the second best city.
 Apartment List released a list of the 13 best communities for raising a family in Colorado, and Aurora ranked
10th. The ranking considered each community’s safety, housing costs, school quality, and child friendliness.
 Denver was named as one of the best U.S. housing markets in 2015 for single-family home sales by
Auction.com. The list considered the 49 largest U.S. housing markets and was based on current and expected
future housing fundamentals. The Denver market was said to be among the most robust in the nation. Further,
given the active local economy and growing population base, housing demand is expected to drive prices up
even further in the coming years. San Antonio, Texas, Nashville, Tenn., Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and Dallas,
Texas were also among the top five.
 BetterDoctor.Com released the Fit Cities Index, a ranking of the most active and most sedentary cities in the
country. The ranking found that Aurora was the most fit city in the country. The criteria for the list included
park expenditure per resident, park acres per 1,000 residents, and the percentage of residents at a healthy
weight. Aurora was noted as having 31.4 park acres per resident and having 83 percent of its residents that had
exercised in the past 30 days.
Employment and Unemployment
Employment—Metro Denver reported first quarter 2015 employment of 1.5 million, rising 3.6 percent above the
previous year’s level. This represented an increase of 52,900 jobs over-the-year. The natural resources and
construction supersector reported the largest over-the-year increase in employment (+13 percent) and created the
most jobs during the period, generating 11,500 additional jobs. The education and health services supersector and
the other services sector reported the
significant over-the-year percentage increases
in employment, rising 5.9 percent and 5.3
percent, respectively. The information sector
recorded the only decline in employment,
falling 3.2 percent between the first quarters
of 2014 and 2015. Only three of the 11
supersectors reported over-the-quarter
employment growth, but employment
declines between the fourth and first quarters
is a typical trend due to loss of seasonal
employees. Colorado employment rose 3.1
percent over-the-year, creating 74,800 jobs,
while U.S. employment rose 2.3 percent.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey—Hiring expectations in the U.S. and Metro Denver rose through the
second quarter of 2015 compared with the prior year. The percentage of employers planning to increase
employment levels rose 3 percentage points between the second quarters of 2014 and 2015 in both areas, with 23
percent planning to hire more employees in Metro Denver. The majority of Metro Denver companies intend to
maintain staff levels through the second quarter of the year. Only 1 percent of companies plan to reduce their
workforce, the lowest level of layoffs since the second quarter of 2012.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
National
Metro Denver
2Q 2015
1Q 2015
2Q 2014
Companies Hiring
23%
20%
20%
22%
19%
19%
Companies Laying
Off
1%
4%
6%
6%
5%
4%
Companies No
Change
71%
72%
72%
73%
72%
73%
Unsure
5%
2%
3%
2%
2%
4%
Unemployment—The average
unemployment rate for the first quarter of
2015 in Aurora declined compared with the
previous year, falling 1.9 percentage points to
5 percent. However, the unemployment rate in
Aurora was 0.5 percentage points higher than
the fourth quarter (4.5 percent) of 2014, a
typical seasonal trend. Aurora’s first quarter
unemployment rate was the lowest first
quarter level since the first quarter of 2007
when the rate was 4.9 percent. Both Adams
County and Arapahoe County posted declines
in their unemployment rates between the first
quarters of 2014 and 2015. Adams County
(5.2 percent) recorded an over-the-year
decrease of 2.1 percentage points, while
Arapahoe County (4.4 percent) reported
a 1.6 percentage point decline during the
same period. Metro Denver recorded an
unemployment rate of 4.4 percent, the
lowest first quarter level since the first
quarter of 2007. The first quarter
unemployment rate was 1.5 percentage
points lower than the previous year. The
U.S. unemployment rate declined 1.1
percentage points over-the-year to 5.8
percent.
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Consumer Activity
The Conference Board – Consumer
confidence rose during the first quarter of
2014, increasing 9.3 percent over-the-quarter
to 101.3 for the U.S. index. The U.S. index
also recorded a 25.8 percent increase in
consumer confidence between the first
quarters of 2014 and 2015. The Mountain
Region index, which includes Colorado, also
increased compared with the fourth quarter of
2014. The Mountain Region index increased
to 109.4, an over-the-quarter increase of 19.3
percent and an over-the-year increase of 28.6
percent.
Aurora Sales Tax Collection—Sales tax
collections throughout Aurora were 10.5
percent higher during the first quarter of
2015 than the first quarter of 2014. The
first quarter was also 6.4 percent higher
than the fourth quarter, with approximately
$41.1 million sales tax collections. (Note:
The two charts, Aurora Retail Sales by
Industry and Aurora Sales Tax Collections, do
not necessarily reflect the same tax base, so
trends may differ.)
Retail Sales—Aurora recorded an 8.1 percent
increase in retail sales between the second
quarters of 2013 and 2014. The health and
personal care industry reported the largest
total sale increase over-the-year, selling an
additional $21 million, an increase of nearly
59 percent. Eleven of the 13 industries
reported growth in sales in the second quarter
of 2014 compared with the previous year.
During the period, non-store retailers posted
the largest percentage increase in retail sales,
rising 192 percent. The sporting goods and
hobby stores and services stations industries
reported the only over-the-year declines in
retail sales, falling 3.7 percent and 0.7
percent, respectively.
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Second quarter retail sales in Metro Denver
were 8.4 percent higher than the prior year’s
level. The largest over-the-year increase was
reported by miscellaneous retailers, rising
23.8 percent. The only sector reporting a
decline was service stations, declining 3.4
percent over-the-year.
Denver International Airport—
Spokespeople for Denver International
Airport reported that passengers
through the first quarter of 2015 were
1.4 percent lower than the first quarter
of 2014. The airport served over 12.2
million passengers during the first
quarter 2015, 167,500 fewer passengers
than the previous year.
Rocky Mountain Lodging—The South
and Southeast Denver markets ended
the first quarter with a hotel occupancy
rate of 69.2 percent, 11.3 percentage
points lower than the end of the previous
quarter. The market’s average room rate
was $119.20 per night. The Northeast
market reported an occupancy rate of 78.5
percent and an average room rate of
$101.65 per night, 12.4 percent higher
than the prior quarter. Metro Denver
reported a hotel occupancy rate of 71.4
percent and an average room rate of
$127.69 per night.
Construction of the 1,500-room Gaylord
Rockies Hotel began in April 2015. The
project has a 36-month construction schedule,
with a planned opening targeted for
Thanksgiving 2018.
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Residential Real Estate
Existing Home Sales—Total sales in Aurora
during the first quarter of 2015 (1,372) were
2.8 percent higher than sales reported in the
first quarter of 2014, reflecting the sale of 38
additional homes. Single-family attached
home sales (condominiums and townhomes)
increased 28.6 percent over-the-year to 522
sales. Single-family detached home sales fell
8.4 percent to 850 sales.

Metro Denver reported 9,679 total home
sales during the first quarter of the year. The
first quarter sales level was 3.4 percent higher
than the previous year, but 21.8 percent lower
than the fourth quarter of 2014.
 Aurora and Metro Denver reported
similar increasing trends in the average sales
price for both single-family detached and
single-family attached markets over-the-year.
Compared with Metro Denver, Aurora
reported slightly larger increases in the
average sales price for both markets during
the first quarter.
Average Home Prices
1Q 2015 1Q 2014
Aurora
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached
Metro Denver
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached
Yr/Yr
% Ch
$288,744 $250,737 15.2%
$158,037 $133,551 18.3%
$390,769 $339,555 15.1%
$248,605 $212,094 17.2%
Note: Due to a change in the Metrolist system, data in this report may not be
comparable w ith prior editions.
Source: Recolorado.
Residential Building Permits—Building
permits issued in Aurora have been heavily
concentrated in the single-family detached
market for four consecutive quarters. Aurora
reported a 52.5 percent decline in total
building permits during the first quarter of
2015 compared with the same period the prior
year. However, first quarter permits were
nearly 11 percent higher than the fourth
quarter.
 Metro Denver recorded an 11.2 percent
decrease in total building permits during
the first quarter of 2015 compared with the
prior year. However, first quarter permits
were 0.3 percent higher than the prior
quarter.
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Apartment Vacancy—During the first quarter of 2015, the apartment vacancy rate for three of the six Aurora
submarkets decreased.
 The largest over-the-year decrease was in the Aurora-North submarket, where the vacancy rate fell 3.7
percentage points to 0.0 percent. Indeed, the Aurora-North submarket was the only submarket in Metro
Denver that was fully rented. Aurora-South and Aurora-Central Southeast also reported over-the-year
declines, falling 1.8 percentage points and
Apartment Vacancy and Rental Rates
0.4 percentage points, respectively. The
Vacancy (%)
Rent
Rent
Aurora-Central Northwest reported the
1Q
2015
1Q
2014
1Q
2015
1Q
2014
largest over-the-year increase in vacancy,
Adams
County
4.0%
4.7%
$1,131
$988
rising 1.7 percentage points. The AuroraAurora-North
0.0%
3.7%
$777
$998
Central Southwest and Aurora-Central
Arapahoe
County
4.9%
4.5%
$1,164
$1,026
Northeast submarkets also reported overAurora-Central Northeast
3.6%
3.2%
$946
$900
the-year increases, rising 0.9 percentage
Aurora-Central Northwest
6.2%
4.5% $1,195 $1,034
points and 0.4 percentage points,
Aurora-Central
Southeast
3.1%
3.5% $1,089
$928
respectively.
Aurora-Central Southwest
4.6%
3.7% $1,089
$912
 The vacancy rate was 0.7 percentage
Aurora-South
3.7%
5.5% $1,145 $1,014
points lower in Adams County (4 percent),
Metro Denver
4.9%
5.1% $1,204 $1,074
but 0.4 percentage points higher in
Source: Apartment Association of Metro Denver,
Arapahoe County (4.9 percent) between
Denver Metro Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey.
the first quarters of 2014 and 2015. The
vacancy rate in Metro Denver fell 0.2 percentage points over-the-year to 4.9 percent.
Apartment Rental Rates—Five of the Aurora submarkets reported significant growth in the average rental rate
between the first quarters of 2014 and 2015. Aurora-Central Southwest ($1,089) and Aurora-Central Southeast
($1,089) reported the largest over-the-year increases in the average rental rate, rising 19.3 percent and 17.3
percent, respectively. The Aurora-North submarket reported the only over-the-year decline, falling 22.2 percent to
$777 per month. In Metro Denver, the average rental rate increased 12.1 percent over-the-year to $1,204, marking
the 20th consecutive quarter of increase in the average apartment rental rate.
Foreclosure Activity— Adams and Arapahoe Counties reported declines in foreclosure activity through the first
quarter of 2015 compared with the prior year. The two counties also reported over-the-quarter decreases in
foreclosure activity, with both Adams and Arapahoe Counties falling 33 percent during the period.
 Total foreclosure filings reported in Metro Denver during the first quarter of 2015 were 48.3 percent lower
than first quarter of 2014 and fell 32.2 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2014.
Foreclosures
Adams Arapahoe Metro
County County Denver
1Q 2015
194
4Q 2014
290
1Q 2014
370
Yr/Yr % Change -47.6%
195
833
291 1,229
410 1,611
-52.4% -48.3%
Sources: Colorado Division of Housing and county
public trustees
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Commercial Real Estate
Commercial Activity—The Aurora commercial real estate market improved across three of the four property
types through the first quarter of 2015. The flex market vacancy rate declined 1.3 percentage points over-theyear, while the average lease rate rose 22 percent to $7.99 per square foot. The office market reported the
largest decrease in the vacancy rate over-the-year, falling 3.4 percentage points, while the industrial market
reported the largest increase in the average lease rate (+ 50.6 percent).
 Metro Denver continued to recorded declining vacancy and rising average lease rates across all property
types between the first quarters of 2014 and 2015. The largest increase in average lease rate was in the
industrial market, growing 22.2 percent to $6.45 per square foot. Flex space reported the largest decline in
vacancy rate, falling 1.4 percentage points over-the-year.
Commercial Vacancy and Lease Rates by Property Type
Total Existing
Square Footage
Direct Vacancy
Rate
Avg Lease Rate
(per sq. ft.)
1Q 2015
1Q 2014
1Q 2015
1Q 2014
1Q 2015
1Q 2014
Office
City of
Metro
Aurora
Denver
9,695,061 175,116,138
9,695,061 174,028,880
11.9%
9.9%
15.3%
11.1%
$16.89
$23.30
$16.30
$22.16
Industrial
Flex
City of
Metro
City of
Metro
Aurora
Denver
Aurora
Denver
24,407,186 205,570,133 2,490,779 41,733,431
23,814,311 203,036,145 2,490,779 40,919,406
4.5%
2.9%
8.3%
8.1%
4.2%
3.5%
9.6%
9.5%
$5.42
$6.45
$7.99
$10.19
$3.60
$5.28
$6.55
$9.57
Retail
City of
Metro
Aurora
Denver
20,783,796 160,670,953
20,732,827 159,898,243
4.4%
5.3%
4.9%
5.7%
$13.39
$15.63
$13.31
$15.36
Source: CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Note: lease rates for industrial, flex, and retail property are triple-net. Office rates are full-service.
Written in May 2015 by:
Development Research Partners, Inc.
10184 West Belleview Ave, Ste 100
Littleton, Colorado 80127
303-991-0070
www.developmentresearch.net
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