Alternate Universes:
Possible Roles for HR in the Decade Ahead
Steve Miranda, SPHR, GPHR
Chief Human Resource and Content Integration Officer, SHRM
“HR Tomorrow” Conference – Minnesota, April 15, 2011
Source: Programs and Practices to Confront the Workplace Effects of the Downturn in the Economy Poll Findings
(SHRM, March 2009).
©SHRM 2009
Wit or Wisdom?
“It’s tough to make predictions. Especially
About the future”
“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
“You can observe a lot just by watching.”
-Yogi Berra
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
So… Exactly What ARE HR
Professionals Saying Nowadays?
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Top 5 Workplace Trends 2003-2011
2003
2005
2007
2009
1. 1. Use of
technology to
communicate with
employees
1. Rising in
health care
costs
1. Rising health
care costs
1. Continuing high
cost of health
care in United
States
2. 2. Rising health
care costs
2. Focus on
domestic
safety and
security
2. Increased use of
outsourcing
(offshoring) of
jobs to other
countries
2. Large numbers
of Baby Boomers
(1945–1964)
retiring at around
the same time
3. 3. Increased
vulnerability of
intellectual
property
3. Use of
technology to
communicate
with
employees
4. 4. Managing talent
4. Growing
complexity of
legal
compliance
3. Threat of
increased health
care/medical
costs on the
economic
competitiveness
of the USA
4. Increased
demand for
work/life balance
3. Threat of
increased health
care/medical
costs on the
economic
competitiveness
of the USA
4. Aging population
5. 5. Greater demand
for high-skilled
workers than for
low-skilled workers
5. Use of
technology to
perform
transactional
HR functions
5. Retirement of
large numbers of
Baby Boomers
(those born
between 1945
and 1964) at
around the same
time
5. Growing need to
develop
retention
strategies for
current and
future workforce
2011
1. Continuing
high cost of
employee
health care
coverage in the
U.S.
2. Passage of
federal health
care legislation
3. Increased
global
competition for
jobs, markets
and talent
4. Growing
complexity of
legal
compliance for
employers
5. Changes in
employee
rights due to
legislation
and/or court
rulings
Source: Society for Human Resource Management. (2011).
SHRM
Workplace
SHRM-AARP
Strategic
Workforce Forecast.
Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Top 5 Workplace Trends 2003-2011
2003
2005
2007
2009
1. 1. Use of
technology to
communicate with
employees
1. Rising in
health care
costs
1. Rising health
care costs
1. Continuing high
cost of health
care in United
States
2. 2. Rising health
care costs
2. Focus on
domestic
safety and
security
2. Increased use of
outsourcing
(offshoring) of
jobs to other
countries
2. Large numbers
of Baby Boomers
(1945–1964)
retiring at around
the same time
3. 3. Increased
vulnerability of
intellectual
property
3. Use of
technology to
communicate
with
employees
4. 4. Managing talent
4. Growing
complexity of
legal
compliance
3. Threat of
increased health
care/medical
costs on the
economic
competitiveness
of the USA
4. Increased
demand for
work/life balance
3. Threat of
increased health
care/medical
costs on the
economic
competitiveness
of the USA
4. Aging population
5. 5. Greater demand
for high-skilled
workers than for
low-skilled workers
5. Use of
technology to
perform
transactional
HR functions
5. Retirement of
large numbers of
Baby Boomers
(those born
between 1945
and 1964) at
around the same
time
5. Growing need to
develop
retention
strategies for
current and
future workforce
2011
1. Continuing
high cost of
employee
health care
coverage in the
U.S.
2. Passage of
federal health
care legislation
3. Increased
global
competition for
jobs, markets
and talent
4. Growing
complexity of
legal
compliance for
employers
5. Changes in
employee
rights due to
legislation
and/or court
rulings
Source: Society for Human Resource Management. (2011).
SHRM
Workplace
SHRM-AARP
Strategic
Workforce Forecast.
Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Top 5 Workplace Trends 2003-2011
2003
2005
2007
2009
1. 1. Use of
technology to
communicate with
employees
1. Rising in
health care
costs
1. Rising health
care costs
1. Continuing high
cost of health
care in United
States
2. 2. Rising health
care costs
2. Focus on
domestic
safety and
security
2. Increased use of
outsourcing
(offshoring) of
jobs to other
countries
2. Large numbers
of Baby Boomers
(1945–1964)
retiring at around
the same time
3. 3. Increased
vulnerability of
intellectual
property
3. Use of
technology to
communicate
with
employees
4. 4. Managing talent
4. Growing
complexity of
legal
compliance
3. Threat of
increased health
care/medical
costs on the
economic
competitiveness
of the USA
4. Increased
demand for
work/life balance
3. Threat of
increased health
care/medical
costs on the
economic
competitiveness
of the USA
4. Aging population
5. 5. Greater demand
for high-skilled
workers than for
low-skilled workers
5. Use of
technology to
perform
transactional
HR functions
5. Retirement of
large numbers of
Baby Boomers
(those born
between 1945
and 1964) at
around the same
time
5. Growing need to
develop
retention
strategies for
current and
future workforce
2011
1. Continuing
high cost of
employee
health care
coverage in the
U.S.
2. Passage of
federal health
care legislation
3. Increased
global
competition for
jobs, markets
and talent
4. Growing
complexity of
legal
compliance for
employers
5. Changes in
employee
rights due to
legislation
and/or court
rulings
Source: Society for Human Resource Management. (2011).
SHRM
Workplace
SHRM-AARP
Strategic
Workforce Forecast.
Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Most common overall actions HR professionals say
their organizations have taken in response to trends
Action
Yes, currently doing
No
Plan to
Linking employee performance and its impact on the organization’s
business goals
68%
11%
21%
Increasing expectations of employee productivity
67%
15%
18%
Taking steps to protect employees in the event of a major health
epidemic such as the H1N1 flu virus
62%
27%
11%
Implementing policies and procedures aimed at protecting
employee and customer data from identity theft
60%
22%
18%
Updating technology usage policies for employees (use of social
networking sites, email for non-business use etc.)
58%
16%
26%
Changing company policy in response to federal regulations
58%
11%
31%
Investing in technology and services designed to protect company
data in the event of disaster or cyber attack
57%
18%
25%
Increasing the use of technology to perform transactional HR
functions such as paperless pay
Implementing wellness programs
56%
54%
24%
20%
20%
26%
Increasing HR’s role in promoting corporate ethics
54%
28%
18%
Source: Society for Human Resource Management. (2011).
SHRM
Workplace
SHRM-AARP
Strategic
Workforce Forecast.
Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Assuming the current financial challenges to the U.S. and global
economy continue, what is the likelihood of each of the following to
occur at your organization in the NEXT SIX MONTHS?
37%
40%
33%
30%
32%
32%
25%
25%
21%
24%
20%
21%
18%
21%
20%
16%
13%
10%
11%
0%
Fall 2008
Spring 2009
Fall 2009
Freeze employee wage increases
Implement layoffs
Cut employees bonuses
Spring 2010
Fall 2010
Note: Table represents “very likely” responses. In fall 2008, respondents indicated changes occurring in the next 12 months. Where possible, fall 2010 data are
compared with spring 2010, fall 2009, spring 2009 and fall 2008 data; no data point for 2008 indicates that this particular question was not asked in fall 2008.
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
8
Assuming the current financial challenges to the U.S. and global
economy continue, what is the likelihood of each of the following to
occur at your organization in the NEXT SIX MONTHS?
50%
43%
40%
34%
30%
32%
20%
20%
20%
21%
16%
12%
10%
3%
8%
6%
9%
5%
6%
0%
Fall 2008
Spring 2009
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
Fall 2010
Make budget cuts across the entire organization
Halt plans for business growth/expansion
Outsource certain business functions
Note: Table represents “very likely” responses. In fall 2008, respondents indicated changes occurring in the next 12 months. Where possible, fall 2010 data are
compared with spring 2010, fall 2009, spring 2009 and fall 2008 data; no data point for 2008 indicates that this particular question was not asked in fall 2008.
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
9
Top demographic and social trends
Trends
Large numbers of baby boomers (1945 – 1964) leaving the workforce
at around the same time
Major
strategic
impact
Minor
operational
impact
No
impact
64%
29%
7%
A global shortage of skilled workers
57%
Increase in chronic health conditions such as diabetes, heart conditions
etc. among employees
50%
31%
12%
43%
7%
Huh?!
Growth in number of employees with caring responsibilities (eldercare,
childcare, both eldercare and childcare at the same time)
47%
48%
5%
Employee backlash against rising benefits costs
44%
51%
5%
Increased employee demand for work/life balance
43%
50%
7%
An increased proportion of older workers in the workforce
40%
48%
12%
Increased concerns about safety and security in the workplace
38%
55%
7%
Growth in the number of employees with English is a second language
38%
51%
11%
Rise in the number of employees with untreated physical and mental
health conditions in the workplace
36%
51%
13%
Source: Society for Human Resource Management. (2011). SHRM Workplace Forecast.
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Workplace Flexibility:
The New “Coin of the Realm”
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Workplace Flexibility:
The New “Coin of the Realm”
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
“Crises”
Danger
Opportunity
Whether we like it or not,
HR is in the “risk management” business
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Alternative Universe
Number One…
The HR Professional as “Behavioral
Economist”
Definition: Behavioral Economics and Behavioral Finance
are closely related fields making up a separate branch of
economic and financial analysis using social, cognitive
and emotional factors in understanding the economic
decisions of consumers, borrowers and investors,
and their effects on market prices.
Whew! But what in the heck does this mean???
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
14
Why Everything is Relative – Even When
It Shouldn’t Be
Scenario One
Scenario Two
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Includes online access to all articles from
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US $59.00
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Includes online access to all articles from
The Economist since 1997
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US $125.00
One-year subscription to the print edition
Of The Economist
Print subscription to Economist
US $125.00
One-year subscription to the print edition
Of The Economist
Print and Web subscription
US $125.00
One-year subscription to the print edition
Of The Economist and online access to all
Articles from The Economist since 1997
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
15
Read These Books!!!
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
16
Alternative Universe
Number Two…
The HR Professional as “Choice
Architect”
Definition: A Choice Architect is someone who has
the responsibility for organizing the context in which
people make decisions.
Examples:
Person who designs the ballot voters use to
choose candidates
A doctor who must describe the alternative
treatments available to a patient
An HR professional who designs the form new
employees complete to enroll in the
company health care plan
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
17
“Humans” vs. “Economists”
A Few Thoughts to Keep in Mind…
Never under-estimate the power of inertia
“One Size Fits All” vs. “Just Maximize Choices”
“Intuitive / Automatic” vs. “Reflective / Rational” Thinking
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
18
Read This Book!!!
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
19
Alternative Universe
Number Three…
The HR Professional as “Quant”
Definition: A Quant is someone who is an expert
in the use of mathematics and related subjects,
Often investment management and stock trading.
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
20
Math:
SOME BASIC MATH
A Key Requirement for Business Respect
A Simple Question from a Simple Forecast…
Statement:
There is a 50% chance of rain on
Saturday or Sunday
Question:
What’s the probability of rain on
the weekend?
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
21
Math:
A Key Requirement for Business Respect
A Simple Question…
Sunday
Rain (0.5)
No Rain (0.5)
.25
.25
No Rain (0.5)
Saturday
Rain (0.5)
.25
.25
Prob (Rain) = .25+.25+.25 = .75 = 75%
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
22
Math:
A Key Requirement for Business Respect
A Second Simple Question…
•You are analyzing the annual returns for mutual funds to
possibly add to your company’s 401(k) plan.
•One fund has returned an average of 25% annually over
the past two years.
•If your staff had invested in this fund, would they have
made money?
Year One
Starting Balance $1000
Return -50%
Ending Balance $500
Year Two
Starting Balance $500
Return 100%
Ending Balance $1000
Average Return: 25%
Effective Return: 0%
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
23
Math:
A Key Requirement for Business Respect
A Tale of Two Employment Strategies
Per Year/Per
Employee
Number of employees
Yearly/hourly earnings
Turnover
Percentage turnover
Replacement costs
Total turnover costs
Cost of healthcare
premiums
Employees eligible for
healthcare
Company contributions
to retirement
Employees eligible for
retirement
Sales
Sales per square foot
102,000
$23,962 / 11.52
21,420
68,000
$33,218 / 15.97
4,080
21%
$35,943
6%
$49,827
$769,900,000
3,500
$203,290,000
$5,575
47%
82%
$747
$1,330
64%
91%
$11,039
$516
$13,647
$795
-Wayne Cascio, “The Economic Impact of EmployeeSHRM-AARP
Behavior on
Organizational Performance.”
Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
24
Read These Books!!!
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
25
And While All of This is Important…
At the “End of the Day” It’s All About Context
How Does the Following Statement Make You Feel?
a woman without her man is useless
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
And While All of This is Important…
At the “End of the Day” It’s All About Context
How Does the Following Statement Make You Feel?
a woman - without her - man is useless
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
And While All of This is Important…
At the “End of the Day” It’s All About Context
The “Pros” Have Always Known This…
“How Old Cary Grant?”
“Old Cary Grant fine. How you?”
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010
Alternate Universes:
Possible Roles for HR in the Decade Ahead
Steve Miranda, SPHR, GPHR
Chief Human Resource and Content Integration Officer, SHRM
“HR Tomorrow” Conference – Minnesota, April 15, 2011
SHRM-AARP Strategic Workforce Planning Poll| ©SHRM 2010