TUSIAD Conference – Mock Scenario
The following is an illustration of how a game centered on the Middle East could play
out. The example below begins in 2013 and covers the first two sessions within a 20-year
time frame.
Turkey’s Northeast in the Next 20 Years
Participants: United States, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Germany/EU, Azerbaijan
and Turkey
The timeframe for this scenario is 20 years, beginning in 2013 and divided into four fiveyear sections (2013, 2018, 2023, 2028.) Each 5-year section is divided into three rounds.
In each round, each participant is likely to make at least one move.
There are four types of moves to choose from:
Diplomatic (holding meetings, relaying messages, forming/breaking alliances,
demarches, UNSC activity, assigning special envoys, etc.)
Economic (investment, subsidization, sanctions, sanctions-busting, tariffs, embargo, etc.)
Military (military assistance/training, military purchases/sales, movement of carriers,
troop deployments, war – air strikes, deploying ground forces, etc.)
Covert (financial/military support to proxies, subversion, propaganda, deception
campaigns, assassination, etc.)
** If a covert move is employed, it will be relayed electronically to the moderator and
may be revealed to select participants at the moderator’s time of choosing.
The participant can play all four types of moves (diplomatic, economic, military, covert)
in a single turn, do a combination of moves or choose not to exercise a move at each turn.
They can also leave their moves as open-ended strategic gambits – “increasing readiness
of Navy” – or specify them as particular tactical moves – “sending USS Enterprise to the
Gulf”.
SESSION 1 – Begins in the Year 2013
Background (Known to all participants before game begins):
The game begins in April 2013. The United States is less than three months into a new
presidential term and has completed its withdrawal from Iraq. A U.S. brigade remains in
Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth Fleet tenuously remains in Bahrain. A political crisis is
intensifying in Bahrain following elections held two months prior in which an umbrella
Shiite coalition has accused the Sunni royal family of massive vote-rigging. The Shiite
coalition campaigned on a platform of Shiite solidarity, resistance against Saudi
interference and Bahraini military autonomy from the United States.
The Saudi kingdom is concerned that the Shiite unrest in Bahrain will reinvigorate Shiite
protests in Eastern Province at Iran’s prodding. Iran has been cracking down on
simmering Kurdish unrest in the north and preparations have begun for elections to be
held later in the year. In Iraq, militant activity in Iraq is on the decline and investors from
Europe, the United States, China and Russia are competing for major oil projects in the
south.
In the Levant region, Israel has just initiated a military offensive in the Gaza Strip
following a barrage of rocket attacks and a major suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv shopping
mall. The military offensive involves air strikes and ground deployment of IDF into
Gaza. Diplomatic tensions between Israel and Turkey are escalating as a result.
Russia has begun to move into the Baltic region via economic and political influence in
Estonia and Latvia, pinning Lithuania further into a corner, but is concerned that U.S.
disentanglement from the Middle East following the Iraq withdrawal will hamper its
plans. Germany is largely preoccupied with Europe following a default by Greece that is
threatening to plunge the European Union into another financial crisis.
SESSION I
ROUND I
** NEW DEVELOPMENT [Revealed by moderator at start of session]
U.S., European and Russian seismologists have confirmed that Iran has successfully
detonated a nuclear device. Israeli and U.S. intelligence estimates indicate that Iran is
likely at least two years away from being able to weaponize a device.
All participants in the first round will submit their first move(s) to the moderator
simultaneously.
Saudi Arabia
Diplomatic:
 Sends intelligence chief to Muscat for closed-door meeting with U.S. Sec Def.
 Urges U.S. military action against Iran, but maintains that the regional
circumstances make the risk of contributing Saudi air space or bases to the
mission too high for Saudi Arabia to become overtly involved. Saudi Arabia
suggests Turkey as an alternative basing option.
Israel
Diplomatic:
 Sends an envoy to Washington to discuss feasibility plan for air strikes on Iran;
Extends invitation to Azerbaijan to discuss use of airbases
Military:
 Proposes air exercises with the US and Turkey to simulate attack on Iran.
 While IDF are deployed already in Gaza, Israel begins shifting forces to Israel’s
northern frontier with Lebanon.
United States
Diplomatic:
 Calls for immediate reassessment of intelligence on Iranian nuclear development
timeline, calls for a crisis meeting of the UNSC, where it reveals (and later leaks
to the Washington Post) information on weapons components being shipped to a
nuclear facility in northeastern Iran from an unidentified European country.
 Military: Sends an additional carrier group to the Persian Gulf
 Economic: Calls for full economic sanctions plus freezing of all assets
Russia
Diplomatic:
 Calls for UNSC meeting, is in favor of condemning Tehran for its actions, but no
punitive actions beyond that.
 Sends foreign minister to Tehran and positions itself to mediate between US and
Iran.
Germany
Diplomatic:
 Calls for UNSC meeting, in favor of condemnation against Tehran
Economic:
 Supports an intensification of sanctions on Iran’s banking and industrial sector.
Azerbaijan
Diplomatic:
 Sends envoys to Washington and Ankara to assess situation
Turkey
Diplomatic:
 Sends envoy to Iran to warn against further provocation, positions itself to
mediate in crisis.
 Calls for regional forum in Istanbul and extends invitation to US, Germany/EU,
Saudi Arabia and Iran.
MODERATOR - A UNSC meeting is held, and all permanent members vote yes to a
diplomatic censure against Iran, demanding that Iran allow in IAEA inspectors and come
forward with information regarding its development of a weaponized device. Sanctions
are intensified on Iran, but no other punitive actions are specified at Russian and Chinese
insistence.
** NEW DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCED BY MODERATOR:
Sanctions on Iranian gasoline supply at this point are likely to have little impact, as China
has completed upgrading Iran’s main refineries, raising gasoline output by 60 percent.
ROUND 2
In the second round, each participant takes turns making moves. The moderator chooses
order.
Iran
Diplomatic:
 Suspends participation in NNPT pending its recognition as a Nuclear Weapons
State.
 Offers IAEA inspectors to re-enter its facilities as UNSC resolution calls for.
 Calls for an international conference on negotiating a new NNPT to account for
new nuclear power states.
Covert:
 Begins arming Hezbollah with new rockets with range that can hit Tel Aviv from
south Lebanon.
 Shia in south of Iraq are armed and told to agitate
 Requests S-400s from Russia
United States
Military:
 Begins a war game with Qatar/UAE/Oman/Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf.
 Asks Turkey for use of Izmir in air strikes.
Diplomatic: (moderator asks the U.S. to respond to the Iranian offer of a new NNPT
conference):
 Rejects the new NNPT idea, asks the IAEA to go into Iran to verify the status of
its reactors.
 Rejects Turkish Istanbul Conference
 Asks for a contact group of Russia, Turkey, China, Germany, France and UK to
meet in Washington to decide on further steps with Iran.
Covert:
 US chooses to mount an intel operation in Iran to find out how quickly Iran can
weaponize the nuclear device.
 Begins massive funding campaign for internal destabilization in Iran via prodemocracy groups, Balochi insurgents, Kurds and Ahvazi Arabs
Israel
Diplomatic:
 Rejects Turkish mediation on basis that Turkey rejected the joint military
exercise. Asks UNSC to authorize use of military force.
Military:
 Air force conducts a long range refueling exercise in the Mediterranean with
Greek forces since Turkey rejected a call for an exercise.
Covert:
 Begins its own re-assessment of Iranian nuclear weaponization timeline
Turkey
Diplomatic:
 Rejects the U.S. idea of Washington-led mediation.
 Rejects Israel suggestion of UNSC resolution authorizing use of force.
 Rejects U.S. call for use of Izmir.
 Rejects Israeli invitation for air exercises over the Mediterranean to simulate
strikes on Iran.
 Continues to stress that it can resolve the situation diplomatically.
 Tries to convince Azerbaijan that cooperation in military strike against Iran is not
worth the risk
Saudi Arabia
Diplomatic:
 Urges U.S. to attack as soon as possible.
Economic:
 Offers to fund the military operation (covertly).
Military:
 Raises alert status of its military.
Covert: (moderator initiated, Israel approaches Riyadh and asks for over flight rights;
Riyadh rejects)
Azerbaijan
 Requests long-term security pact with US on par with Russian military defense
pact with Armenia in exchange for use of airbases
Russia
Diplomatic:
 Rejects UNSC resolution on authorization of use of force.
 Agrees to the U.S. proposal of regular meetings of contact group.
 Condemns Iran.
Covert: Orchestrates sabotage attack on BTC in signaling to Baku the consequences of
fortifying its defense relationship with the United States
Germany/EU
Diplomatic:
 Rejects UNSC resolution on authorization of use of force.
 Agrees to the U.S. proposal of regular meetings of contact group.
 Condemns Iran.
MODERATOR
 UNSC resolution on authorization of use of force fails.
 U.S. intelligence estimate says that Iran’s nuclear weaponization is at least 5 years
away.
 Israel is told that it will take a year (by the end of this session)
 Hezbollah hits Tel Aviv with a barrage of rockets; Israel invades south Lebanon
and begins air campaign against Hezbollah; Syrian troops are massing at
Lebanese border.
 Germany/Eurozone survive Greek bailout
 A Shia revolt is erupting in Iraq
 Bahrain revolution succeeds, Sunni monarchy is overthrown and 5th fleet is
evicted.
 US agrees to defense pact with Azerbaijan.
Round 3
Israel
Military:
 Gives the U.S. an ultimatum: either U.S. intervenes by the end 2018 or it will use
tactical nuclear weapons to take out nuclear/weapon facilities of Iran.
 Invades South Lebanon
United States
Military:
 (moderator initiated: where do you move 5th fleet to?): Moves 5th fleet to Oman,
outside of the Straits of Hormuz.
 Moves massive amounts of air assets to Manas, begins expanding facilities there.
Diplomatic:
 Rejects Israel ultimatum, tells Israel that Iran is still facing difficulty in
weaponizing and there is time for covert action to hamper their efforts.
 Coordinates with Turkey to apply pressure on Iranian assets in Iraq.
Covert:
 Deploys operatives into Iraq to help the government contain Shiite rebellion
Russia
Diplomatic:
 Hosts a meeting of the contact group.
Covert:
 (moderator initiated: offer to sell Iran S-400 with a defective radar – but not tell
Tehran – or S-400 with full radar: Sells Tehran covertly S-400 with faulty radar,
offers Israel code to jam radar should need arise in exchange for Israeli
commitment to withdraw military assistance to Georgia.
Saudi Arabia
Military:
 Invades Bahrain, installs puppet nephew of the deposed Sheikh.
Germany
Diplomatic:
 Offers to lead a diplomatic effort with Moscow to stem the situation in Iran.
Turkey
Diplomatic:
 Urges calm in the region.
 Condemns Saudi invasion of Bahrain and Israel’s invasion of Lebanon.
Iran
Diplomatic:
 Calls for an international conference on nuclear disarmament.
 IRGC spokesman states that Iran will “sow destruction on Straits of Hormuz”
 Demands Saudi Arabia withdraws.
 States it is in favor of a unified Iraq and condemns the Shiite rebellion in the
south, but does nothing to stop it.
Military:
 Purchases Sukhoi 37s from Russia.
END OF SESSION 1
SESSION II BEGINS
April 2018
MODERATOR:
 Bahrain devolves into urban insurgency, Saudi Arabia and GCC forces are locked
down; US deploys 4,000 forces to Bahrain.
 Syria extends peace offering to Israel in exchange for deal on Israeli withdrawal
from southern Lebanon, recognition of Syrian influence, deal on Golan Heights
 Kurdish peshmerga invade Kirkuk and declare independence as Shiite rebellion
takes hold and proclaims southern independent Iraq.
Israel
Diplomatic:
 Sends secret envoy to Damascus; agrees to peace deal in exchange for Syrian
commitment to contain Hezbollah
Covert:
 Asks U.S. to deal with Iran ASAP. It has no options for an air force attack.
 Tells U.S. S-400s are not fully upgraded
United States
Military:
 Sends two C130s to Azerbaijan.
 Deploys another aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf
Diplomatic/Covert:
 Offers Turkey a Grand Bargain: Move troops into northern Iraq and seize Kirkuk
if it cooperates with US and ensures Azerbaijani cooperation in military campaign
against Iran.
Iran
Military:
 Increases IRGC presence in Strait of Hormuz
Diplomatic:
 Meeting with Saudi Arabia: Will let Saudi keep Bahrain and withdraw from Iraq
leaving it neutral if Saudi Arabia convinces U.S. to vacate Persian Gulf.
Covert:
 Increases Quds force presence in southern Iraq
Russia
Military/Covert:
 Sells Israel 8 old Tu-160 Blackjack bombers
Germany/EU:
Diplomatic:
 Urges peace, calls for a new meeting of the contact group.
 Sends envoy to Washington to stress the economic repercussions to Europe
should the Straits of Hormuz come under attack
Turkey
Military
 Forced to respond to Kurdish independence: Turkey invades northern Iraq, seizes
Kirkuk.
Diplomatic
 Mediates Syria-Israel peace agreement, agrees to be guarantor of peace pact
Covert
 Tells U.S. it agrees on Iran. Will slowly push influence in Iraq and allow U.S. to
use Izmir and airspace.
 Sends a demarche to Iran that its time is up – withdraw forces from southern Iraq
or else it will join the United States
Azerbaijan
 Agrees to use of bases in Iran strike contingency
Saudi Arabia
Diplomatic:
 Tells the U.S. that if it does not do something, it will sue for peace with Iran.
ROUND 2 of SESSION 2
MODERATOR:
 Tehran withdraws from Bahrain, maintains that it won’t withdraw from southern
Iraq unless Turkey withdraws its troops from northern Iraq.
 Tehran launches a long-range missile test that flies over Tel Aviv and splashes
into the Mediterranean off Tel Aviv beaches.
 U.S. learns that its assessment of Iran’s weaponization program was relying
heavily on information from a recently exposed double-agent of the Iranians.
Israeli intelligence indicates Tehran will likely have a nuclear weapons capability
by the end of the round.
Moderator offers U.S. choice: You know Iran is close to having bomb, Israel is
preparing attack following ICBM test. What do you do? Let Israel attack Iran itself or
take part in military campaign to mitigate disruption to Strait of Hormuz?
Round II opens, United States makes first move…