Investment
Strategy
Outlook Q2 2017
Table of Contents
Contents
Strategic Asset Class Views
Strategic Asset Allocation Views
Investment Strategy Views
Global Economic Environment and Prospects
Asset Class Performance
Bond Markets Performance
Equity Markets Performance
FX Market Performance
Commodities & Alternative Performance
Global Macro Outlook: Summary
US Macro
Eurozone Macro/ECB
Japan Macro
UK Macro
BRIC’s
Government Bonds
Periphery Bonds
Emerging Market Bonds
Credit Markets (IG & HY)
Global Equities
US Equity Markets
S&P 500 Valuation
US Equity Sectors
Cyclical Vs Non Cyclical
Equity Volatility
European Equities
European Equity Valuations
Asian, Emerging Markets & EU Periphery Markets
Commodities
FX
2
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
18
20
21
22
25
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
41
Our Views
Overview Q1 2017
Global Macros
Outlook
3
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Strategic Asset Class Views
Global Equities
Global Bonds
Neutral
Neutral
Bullish
Bearish
Commodities
Neutral
Bullish
Bearish
Euro
Neutral
Bearish
Bullish
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Cash
Neutral
As of 31March 2017
4
Alternatives
Neutral
Bullish
Bearish
Bullish
Strategic Asset Allocation Views
Global Equities
Global Bonds
---
--
-
0
+
++
+++
US Equities
Europe
Germany
UK Equities
Japan
BRICs
Russia
India
Brazil
China
Government US
Short Duration
Long Duration
Government EU
Short Duration
Long Duration
Investment Grade US
Investment Grade EU
High Yields Bonds US
High Yields Bonds EU
Emerging Markets
Equity Sectors
Currencies
Underweight Neutral Overweight
Technology
Telecom
Energy
Industrials
Financials
Eurozone
US
Healthcare
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretio.
Utilities
Materials
Current
Previous
As of 31March 2017
5
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
---
--
-
0
+
++
+++
---
--
-
0
+
++
+++
---
--
-
0
+
++
+++
---
--
-
0
+
++
+++
EUR/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF
USD/JPY
BASKET/RUB
Commodities
GOLD
OIL
Cash
CASH
Alternatives
Investment Strategy Views
Main positions and quarterly changes
Equities
Current equity valuations are overextended, pointing to a period of below average returns, while the rally in the
first quarter has already discounted the positive impact from Donald Trump’s election victory. We take back our
upgrade in Global Equities in Q1 to move down one notch from – to - - for the second quarter. Geographically,
we continue to prefer US equities over European and Emerging Markets.
Bonds
We expect the Fed to raise interest rates a further two times in 2017 (by 25bps each time), and the latest Fed
“dot-plot” reveals Fed Funds at 3% by the end of 2019. As growth and reflation expectations are scaled back
we move Global Bonds and US Government Bonds up one notch from - to neutral. In the credit space
we prefer Investment Grade over High Yield.
Currencies
The US dollar uptrend while faltering at present due to falling yields is expected to strengthen in Q2 at a
moderate pace. EURUSD recent rally was an opportunity to go long the dollar for lower levels in the second
quarter, we remain negative on EURUSD and move USDJPY from positive to neutral. We also move
EUR/GBP to neutral from – due to uncertainty arising from the upcoming Brexit negotiations.
Commodities
Demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue throughout Q2, keeping our view positive,
Crude Oil has found its equilibrium after its recent decline and is supported by OPEC extending their
production cuts, we remain neutral.
Alternatives
We continue to favour non traditional asset classes, such as Alternative Investments since they have a low
correlation with the standard asset classes (equities, bonds) and are suitable for better diversification purposes.
6
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Our Views
Overview Q1 2017
Global Macros
Outlook
7
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Global Economic Environment and Prospects
First quarter main events at a glance
8
•
Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States on Jan 20th, and in his speech
reiterated his campaign pledges to increase spending, cut taxes and reform regulations. However, in the
administrations first test to delivering on these policies, House Republican leaders were forced to
withdraw the GoP healthcare bill from consideration after the legislation failed to garner sufficient support
to pass. Financial markets immediate response was to revise their expectations for the prospects of other
campaign promises , with an immediate negative impact felt in equities and the US dollar, while bond
markets rallied driving yields lower across the curve.
•
The US Federal Reserve in a widely anticipated move increased its benchmark interest rate 0,25% to a
0,75% - 1% range, for the third time in the cycle. US Equity markets were encouraged by Fed Chair Janet
Yellen’s less hawkish tone pointing to “gradual” increases in 2017 of two more hikes.
•
In Europe, the ECB left its rate on main refinancing operations at 0%, while signalling policy continuity by
reiterating its commitment to a substantial degree of monetary accommodation, while at the same time
acknowledging an improvement in the economic outlook for the Eurozone. Whilst in the UK, the Bank of
England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 – 1 to keep interest rates at 0,25% in March, the split of
opinion (8 – 1 vs. 9 – 0) was the first since July 2016, prompting a rally in the pound.
•
The majority of commodity markets moved lower in Q1 with Crude Oil being hit particularly hard (WTI 9,6% YTD to $50,5 per barrel) as data on US crude oil production (+9,1 m barrels) points to growing
inventories and increasing production capabilities, as the current active US rig count is at its highest level
since September 2015 (662). Meanwhile, Gold has rallied this quarter to $1.250 per ounce (+7,9% YTD)
buoyed by the uncertainty in the US and EU political arena, a reassessment of the pace of rate hikes
from the Fed and a weakening US dollar.
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Asset Class Performance
Asset Class Performances
1 YR CHANGE
As at 31-03-2017
Q1 CHANGE
26%
24%
20%
18%
14%
12%
11,1%
9,8%
7,9%
7,6%
5,9%
1,6%
1%
-2%
1,5%
-6%
17%
16%
16%
5,5%
6,4%
2,1%
0%
-0,7%
-4,7%
-9,6%
CRUDE OIL
GOLD
GLOBAL
BONDS
EUR/$
$/JPY
MSCI WORLD
MSCI EM
S&P 500
RUSSEL 2000
NASDAQ
DAX
EUROSTOXX
600(Ex UK)
NIKKEI
• Equities in both US and Europe posted solid gains in Q1, Japan suffers, hit by strengthening Yen
• Bond markets recover from Q4 sell-off, encouraged by dovish Fed comments
• Crude down 9,6% on supply glut concerns, while Gold benefits from safe-haven status in first quarter
• Dollar depreciates vs. majors as investors scale back US rate hike expectations
9
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Bond Markets Performance
10
Bond Indices Performances
1 YR CHANGE
As at 31-03-2017
Q1 CHANGE
17%
10%
8%
7%
3%
2%
1,4%
0,1%
1,4%
0% 0,3%
3,5%
2,9%
3,5%
1,8%
1,3%
-1% -1,1%
-2%
-3,2%
-4%
Eurozone Sov 510
Eurozone Sov
10+
-5%
EUR Investment EUR High Yields US Treasury 1-3
Grade
US Treasuries
10+
USD Investment
Grade
US High Yield
Emerging Market Emerging Market Barclays Global
Sov
Corp
Aggregate USD
(Uh)
• Overall positive quarter for bonds, Central Bank policy dominates market sentiment
• Eurozone Sovereign underperformed, in particular long-end
• Corporates in US & EU outperform, high yield favoured
• Emerging market bonds see inflows as investors attracted by higher yields
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Equity Markets Performance
11
Equity Indices Performances
1 YR CHANGE
As at 31-03-2017
Q1 CHANGE
29%
26%
24%
20%
19%
19%
19%
19%
17%
16%
16%
14%
12%
5,9%
5,5%
12,5%
11,1%
9,8%
7,6%
6,4%
4,6%
3,8%
2,6%
2,1%
7,9%
7,5%
7%
5,4%
-0,7%
-10,61%
MSCI World
S&P 500
Dow Jones Russell 2000
NASDAQ
Eurostoxx
50
DAX
CAC
FTSE 100
Nikkei
Shanghai
MSCI
Emerging
Market
Russia
India
Brazil
• Equites posted solid gains across all regions in the first quarter (exception Russia)
• Russian stocks fall 10,6% in Q1 due to negative energy prices
• Technology favoured in US markets as Nasdaq (+9,8%) outperforms S&P (+5,5%) & Dow (+4,6%)
• Emerging Markets rally as fears over protectionist US policies subside
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
FX Market Performance
12
Currency Performances
1 YR CHANGE
As at 31-03-2017
Q1 CHANGE
7%
7%
6%
1,5%
5,5%
1,5%
0%
0%
-0,3%
-1,7%
-1,7%
-4,7%
-0,3%
-0,8%
-2%
-3,4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8,2%
-7,3%
-12%
-16%
-23%
Dollar Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURCHF
EURGBP
EURJPY
RUBLE
EURRUB
USDCNY
AUDUSD
• US dollar down against the majors, depreciates 4,7% vs the Yen and 1,5% vs. the Euro as interest
rate differentials tighten
• Sterling stabilizes vs. the EUR and USD, even as UK formally triggers Brexit (article 50)
• Ruble falls 16% vs. USD driven by losses in Crude Oil
• Aussie dollar appreciates 5,5%, helped by rising metals prices
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Commodities & Alternative Performance
13
• Crude oil, down 9,6% in Q1, negatively impacted
by increasing US production and scepticism
surrounding compliance of OPEC production cut
deal
Commodities Performances
1 YR CHANGE
Q1 CHANGE
22%
21%
20%
18%
13,6%
7,9%
2,7%
• Gold gains 7,9% in the first quarter, supported by
falling yields, a weaker US dollar and geo-political
risks
5,7%
1%
-5%
-9,6%
-8,9%
Natural Gas
Corn
Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude Oil
Alternative Strategies Performances
1 YR CHANGE
Q1 CHANGE
16%
8%
6%
2,6%
-0,4%
-0,8%
-5%
Macro
1,9%
• Event driven strategies continue their solid
performance in Q1 up 2,6% , taking advantage of
M&A activity and corporate restructurings
9%
6%
1,6%
2,7%
1,0%
2,2% 3%
1%0,7%
0,0%
-1%
-4%
CTA
Event Driven
Market
Neutral
Global Hedge Equity Hedge
Fund
As at 31-03-2017
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Credit
• Copper has increased 5,7% in Q1, adding to the
strong gains in the fourth quarter, albeit at a slower
pace. The advance in prices has been checked by
the spike in copper inventories on the LME
(London Metals Exchange), which reached their
highest level since February 2014.
Convertible
Arb
M&A
Absolute
Return
• Market neutral strategies rebounded in Q1 by 1,9%
• Macro and CTA’s (Commodity Trading Advisors)
continue to struggle in current markets which lack
clear direction
14
Our Views
Overview Q1 2017
Global Macros
Outlook
Global Macro Outlook: Summary
15
OECD Economic Outlook Forecasts
2016
2017
2018
Previous
New
Previous
New
World
3,0%
3,3%
3,3%
3,6%
3,6%
USA
1,6%
2,3%
2,4%
3,0%
2,8%
Eurozone
1,7%
1,6%
1,6%
1,7%
1,6%
United Kingdom
1,8%
1,2%
1,6%
1,0%
1,0%
Japan
1,0%
1,0%
1,2%
0,8%
0,8%
China
6,7%
6,4%
6,5%
6,1%
6,3%
India
7,0%
7,6%
7,3%
7,7%
7,7%
Brazil
-3,5%
0,0%
0,0%
1,2%
1,5%
•
OECD states that “global growth is set to pick up modestly, but remains too slow”
•
Points to disconnect between financial markets and real economy as risk to growth
•
Suggests policies that strengthen inclusive growth and manage risks, including maintaining open markets
•
Raises GDP growth forecast for United Kingdom for 2017 by 0,4% to 1,6% on improved economic
outlook
•
Maintains forecasts for World and Eurozone GDP in 2017
•
Reduces US 2018 GDP by 0,2% to 2,8%
Source: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, Mar 2017
Previous refers to Nov 2016 estimates
US Macro
16
GDP YoY %
CPI & Core CPI
2,50%
2,40%
2,20%
1,60%
2,60%
2,20%
4,5
2,30%
4
1,60%
1,50%
3,5
3
2,5
%2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
Unemployment Rate & Nonfarm Payrolls
600
500
10
400
300
8
200
%6
100
0
4
-100
-200
2
-300
Full employment
Unemployment
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
-400
Dec-09
0
Nonfarm Payrolls
‘
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
CPI Core
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
CPI
2018F
12
Dec-10
-2,80%
Jun-10
Dec-09
-0,5
FED Target
• US GDP for Q4 2016 came in at 2,1% boosted by
consumer spending. GDP annual growth rate
expanded by 2,0%
• Full employment for the US economy. Unemployment
fell to 4,7% in February, labour force participation rate
at 63 percent
• Despite the decline in the unemployment rate,
average hourly earnings are increasing slowly ( 0,2%
consecutive increase over the last 3 months)
• Headline inflation is on the rise, but core prices and
wages are moving slow. The Fed recognises that
“symmetric” inflation may temporarily go above the
2% level
US Macro and Federal Reserve
17
Consumer Confidence & Consumption
ISM Manufacturing PMI
100
12000
PMI
50 Level
58
95
11500
90
56
54
85
11000
80
% 75
10500
52
50
48
70
10000
65
60
9500
> 50 Economy expanding
< 50 Economy contracting
46
44
42
Personal Consumption
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Consumer Confidence
• Full employment, supports US consumption. Private
consumption accounts for over two thirds of the US
economy
FED Balance Sheet
5000
4500
40
Jun-10
Sep-16
Mar-16
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Mar-11
Sep-10
Mar-10
Sep-09
9000
Mar-09
50
Dec-09
55
$4,5 Trillion
4000
• FED is expected to raise interest rates two more
times this year. However, looking ahead, we are
conscious of expected changes (reductions) in the
Fed’s balance sheet
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Jul-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
0
Jan-08
Thousands
60
• The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing
PMI rose to 57,7 in February of 2017 above market
expectations of 56. It is the highest reading since
August of 2014
Eurozone Macro
18
GDP YoY % & CPI
European Unemployment dips below 10%
GDP
2,5%
CPI
13
PMI
10%
12
2,0%
1,7%
1,4%
1,2%
1,6%
11
1,6%
10
1,7%
%
1,5%
9
0,4%
0,2%
8
7
0,0%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
PMI
50 Level
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
• Eurozone trade surplus is supported by
manufacturing PMI’s, as exports continue to
advance. Eurozone manufacturing PMI in March rose
to 56,2 (the highest reading since April of 2011)
> 50 Economy expanding
< 50 Economy contracting
Mar-14
Jun-11
• Inflation in the Eurozone returned in Q1, increasing
1,8% in January and 2% in February (the highest
inflation rate since January 2013)
Europe PMI Manufacturing
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
Dec-10
Dec-09
-0,9%
Jun-10
6
-0,3%
• While political perils abated towards the end of Q1,
volatility from French and German elections still a risk
• Brexit negotiations commenced as UK Prime Minister
triggers Article 50
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
European Central Bank (ECB)
19
ECB Deposit Facility
ECB LTRO
1
1300
0,8
1100
0,6
0,4
900
% 0,2
700
0
500
-0,2
300
-0,4
1800000
1654026
1600000
1400000
1254635
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
ECB Asset Purchased Breakdown
Dec-10
100
-0,6
• The ECB removed a reference to using all available
measures (to induce growth and inflation) “because
the sense of urgency is not there”, Mario Draghi
9/3/2017
• The ECB is less worried about Eurozone banking
sector as the last TLTRO finished in March
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
223218
200000
51069
22830
102274
0
Covered
Bond
ABS
Public
Sector
Corporate
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Market
Securities
Total QE
• Mario Draghi referred to inflation as “transient”
blaming high energy and food effects, and was clear
on future interest rate policy, stating that rates “to
remain at present or lower levels for an extended
period of time, and well past the horizon of the net
asset purchases”
Japan Macro
20
GDP YoY % & CPI
Japan Tankan Survey
GDP
CPI
15
1,50%
Forecast
5
1,20%
0,30%
Tankan
10
2,70%
2,00%
Diff
1,10%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
0,80%
0,70%
0,30%
0
-5
-10
0,00%
0,40%
Trillion Yen
Corporate Profit
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
• Japan continues to grow at a moderate pace, 1,6%
in the fourth quarter of 2016 qoq
Corporate profits and wage growth
22
Jun-13
Dec-12
2018F
2017F
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
-15
6
Wages Growth
20
4
18
2
16
0%
14
• BoJ Governor Kuroda appeared cautious on
Japan’s inflation outlook and provided little
guidance regarding future rate rises
-2
12
-4
10
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
-10
Jun-14
4
Dec-13
-8
Jun-13
6
Dec-12
8
-6
• Private consumption remains weak, despite the on
going improvement in labour and income
conditions
• Yen strengthens as investors shun foreign assets
• We change our positive view to neutral on
Japanese equities
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
UK Macro
21
GDP YoY % & CPI
UK Unemployment, Weekly Wages
8
7
6
5
4
3
%
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
1,3%
0,7%
2012
2013
0,0%
2015
2014
2016
2017F
2018F
Millions
Mortgage Approvals
2
1
0
• Uncertain future for the UK as PM, Theresa May
formally triggers article 50 (Brexit)
UK Mortgage Approvals
78
3
Dec-16
1,7%
5
%
4
Jun-16
1,8%
1,9%
6
Dec-15
2,2%
1,5%
1,3%
2,6%
Jun-15
2,6%
Dec-12
2,8%
7
Dec-14
2,6%
9
Weekly Earnings
8
Jun-14
3,1%
Unemployment
Dec-13
CPI
Jun-13
GDP
Average
68
• Scottish Parliament votes for second independence
referendum
58
48
• A weak sterling and rising inflation will weigh on
private consumption (the pillar of UK growth in recent
years)
38
28
18
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Jan-17
Jul-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
8
• Mark Carney (BOE’s governor) continues dovish
stance, in no hurry to raise interest rates, but ready to
act in either direction
China & India
22
China GDP YoY % & CPI
China PMI & Industrial Production
62
GDP
7,9%
20
9,00%
CPI
PMI
Industrial Production
18
7,8%
8,00%
7,3%
6,9%
6,5%
6,7%
57
16
14
7,00%
6,2%
52
12
%
10
47
8
6,00%
5,00%
6
4,00%
Dec-16
Jun-16
0
Dec-15
1,00%
Jun-15
2,2%
37
Dec-14
1,4%
2
2,00%
Jun-14
2,0%
4
Dec-13
2,0%
42
3,00%
Jun-13
2,3%
2,6%
Dec-12
2,7%
0,00%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
India GDP YoY %
7,9%
7,3%
7,2%
7,0%
6,5%
4,8%
4,7%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
2017F
2018F
• China’s transition into the “new normal” (weaker but
more sustainable growth) continues
• Potential “Trade Wars” – in April as Xi Jinping
(General Secretary) meets with Donald Trump
• China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, has been growing
for eight straight months, driven by new orders and
faster rises in output
• India’s demonetisation was a success for Modi’s
government, while household financial savings (in the
form of cash) are channelled towards financial assets
• No slowdown for India, as Modi rules after major
victories in state elections, pushing forward his
economic reform agenda
Brazil & Russia Macro
23
Brazil GDP YoY %
Brazil Industrial Production & PMI
4
3,00%
2,20%
1,90%
52
PMI
50
0
0,70%
0,50%
Industrial Production
2
-2
48
-4
46
%-6
-8
44
-10
42
-12
40
-14
2012
2013
2014
2017F
3,50%
GDP
15,60%
3,0%
CPI
18,00%
16,00%
14,00%
2,0%
1,30%
1,0%
0,70%
0,0%
7,80%
1,10%
1,50%
12,00%
10,00%
-1,0%
7,10%
-0,20%
6,80%
5,10%
4,30%
-2,0%
6,00%
4,00%
2,00%
-2,80%
-4,0%
0,00%
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
2016
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
• Brazil suffers worst recession on record
• High unemployment, austerity measures, tight
monetary policy and political turmoil hinder Brazil’s
economy
• However, Brazil is expected to return to growth this
year due to improved confidence, a looser monetary
policy and lower inflation
8,00%
4,40%
-3,0%
Dec-15
2018F
Russia GDP YoY % & CPI
4,0%
Sep-15
2016
38
Jun-15
2015
-16
Mar-15
-3,60%
Dec-14
-3,80%
2017F
2018F
• Higher oil prices in 2016 helped the Russian
economy to escape its prolonged recession
• Russia’s Central Bank surprised the markets by
cutting the interest rate by 25bps to 9,75% on March
24th
• Gradual GDP expansion with declining inflation are
expected to continue
24
Our Views
Overview Q1 2017
Global Macros
Outlook
Government Bonds
25
• We expect the Fed to raise interest rates two more
times in 2017 (by 25 bp each time)
US 10Y Treasury Yield Vs German 10Y Bund Yield
3,5
US 10Y
German 10Y
3
• The latest “dot-plot” plan reveals Fed Funds at 3%
by the end of 2019
2,5
2
1,5
• Long-term inflation (5y5y inflation breakeven) are
decelerating. Since the US election the US 10 Yr
yield moved from 1,88% to 2,62%, currently at
2,39%
1
0,5
0
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
-0,5
Spread Between US 10Y & GER 10Y
3
Spread
• US yields advanced as investors bet on
reflationary policies, focus has now turned to
timing, therefore we expect recent high in yields to
contain any rally in Q2
Average
• We move US Government Bonds up one notch
from negative to neutral
2,5
2
1,5
1
• ECB will remain accommodative, until core
inflation and wage growth are clearly rising
0,5
0
-0,5
-1
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
-1,5
• We move EM bonds up from , -- to - as
protectionist fears have subsided and economic
fundamentals have improved
Government Bonds
26
US Yield Curve
US Inflation 5Y 5Y
3,50
Current
4
1 year ago
3,00
3,04
3,5
2,60
3
5Y5Y
Average
2,50
2,42
2,00
1,96
1,50
2,5
1,77
1,00
2
1,21
0,50
Current
Dec-16
• US Treasuries have recovered from sell-off,
supported by scaling back of inflation and growth
prospects
German Yield Curve
1,50
Jun-16
30
Dec-15
25
Jun-15
20
Dec-14
15
Years
Jun-14
10
Dec-13
5
Jun-13
0
Dec-12
1,5
0,00
1 year ago
1,10
1,00
0,00
0
-0,50
-1,00
0,78
0,34
0,50
-0,36 5
0,13
10
15
-0,33
Years
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
20
25
30
• Although ECB, reiterated its accommodative stance,
there are rumours that a tapering process may play
out in the near future
• Eurozone risks involve political events (French and
German elections, early elections in Italy, Brexit
negotiations)
• Bund yields have escaped negative territory, however
“safe haven” flows into German bonds are likely to
continue
Periphery Bonds
27
Periphery 10Y Bond Yields
4
-1
0
Dec-16
0,5
Jun-16
1
Dec-15
1
Jun-15
3
Dec-12
1,5
Dec-16
5
Jun-16
%2
Dec-15
% 7
Jun-15
2,5
Dec-14
9
Jun-14
3
Dec-13
11
Jun-13
3,5
Dec-12
13
Spread
Dec-14
Greece
Jun-14
Italy
Dec-13
Portugal
Jun-13
Spain
15
Spread between German & Italian 10 Year Yields
• Yields in Italy stabilised in the first quarter following
political turmoil in Italy. The spread between the 10
Yr Bund and the 10 Yr Italian Btp widened to 202 bp,
before retreating to 169 bp
Cyprus 10y Bond Yields
4,2
4
3,8
• Spanish and Portuguese government bonds have
firmed, 10 Yr yields at 1,64% and 3,9%, respectively
% 3,6
3,4
3,2
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
3
• Greece dominated by politics as second review
nears, 10 Yr yield has fallen from 7,8% in Jan to
current 6,98%
• Cyprus bond yields have fallen, Standard and Poor’s
rating agency recently upgraded Cyprus by one
notch to BB+
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Emerging Markets Bonds
28
• We reiterate our negative view on EM bonds but to a
lesser extent, moving EM bonds to – from - -
Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Index
170
• Although risks from protectionist US trade policies
and higher US rates are identified, currently they
appear less imminent
160
150
140
• In the event of a geo-political event, market
participants will seek “flight to safety” out of EM
130
120
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
110
• However, despite growing concerns on inflation and
event risks, EM bonds have been strong so far this
year
BRIC’s GDP Forecast
6,9%
7,9%
7,2% 6,8%
6,7% 6,5%
7,4%
5,2%
6,2%
5,5%
2,2%
4,9%
1,5%
1,1%
0,7%
5,4%
-0,2%
-2,8%
-3,8% -3,6%
Brazil
China
2014
Russia
2015
2016
India
2017
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
• A strong dollar, is still a major source of concern
specifically for commodity related EM
BRIC
Credit Markets (IG & HY)
29
US & EU Investment Grade
Correlation of Investment Grades & World Equity
1,2
215
EU
US
1
195
CDX US
Dec-16
• US investment grade and high yield have generated
modest positive returns in Q1, despite the weakness
in March
US & EU High Yield
800
Dec-12
Dec-16
Dec-14
Jun-16
-0,6
Dec-15
35
Jun-15
-0,4
Jun-14
55
Dec-13
75
Jun-13
0
-0,2
Dec-12
95
Jun-16
0,2
Dec-15
115
Jun-15
0,4
Dec-14
135
Jun-14
0,6
Dec-13
155
Jun-13
0,8
175
itraxx EU
700
• As the Fed is engaged in its normalisation process,
we are positive on US IG bonds as market
participants will seek safety in better credit
600
500
400
300
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
200
• We change our view on US HY bonds from neutral to
negative, HY has been weighed down by the recent
fall in commodities and Trump’s first Congress defeat
(ACA act bill)
Global Equities: Positive start to 2017
30
First Quarter Performance
As at 31-03-2017
MSCI EM
S&P 500
NIKKEI
STOXX Europe 600
115
110
105
100
95
27-Mar-17
20-Mar-17
13-Mar-17
06-Mar-17
27-Feb-17
20-Feb-17
13-Feb-17
06-Feb-17
30-Jan-17
23-Jan-17
16-Jan-17
09-Jan-17
02-Jan-17
90
• Emerging Markets outperform in the first quarter, supported by better growth prospects and reduced fears
surrounding US protectionist policies
• US stocks post solid gains as investors focus on the reflation trade triggered by Donald Trump’s election
victory
• European equities rally as political risk subsides and improved economic data
• Nikkei posts Q1 decline, held back by renewed strength in the Yen
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
US Equity Markets
31
• NASDAQ motors ahead (+9,8%), outperforms S&P
500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average during the
first quarter of the year
US Equity Indices Performances
1 YR CHANGE
Q1 CHANGE
• S&P 500 and Dow Jones advance 5,5% and 4,6%,
respectively during Q1, supported by Trump
administrations rhetoric
24%
20%
16%
14%
12%
• Healthcare sector gains 7,9%, despite failure to
reform Obamacare
9,8%
5,9%
5,5%
4,6%
2,1%
S&P 500
RUSSELL 2000
MSCI World USD
NASDAQ
DOW JONES
US Sectors Performances
1 YR CHANGE
• Unsupported by flattening US yield curve, Financials
lag major US indices, while Utilities are posting solid
returns (+5,4%)
Q1 CHANGE
29%
22%
16%
16%
13%
12,2%
8% 7,9%
5,6%
2%
5,3%
4,0%
2,1%
Health Care
Consumer
Stables
Financials
Telecom
Industrial
Materials
As at 31-03-2017
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
11%
8,1%
5,4%
3%
-3%
-5,1%
Tech
• Technology best performing sector (+ 12,2%), while
Energy lags (-7,3%) as global oil supply glut weighs
on oil’s price
Utilities
-7,3% Consumer
Energy
Discretionary
• Trump’s administration expected pro-growth policies
have already been discounted in the market, focus
now on implementation for promised/proposed tax
reforms, trade policies and infrastructure spending
• We change our view on US equities from positive to
neutral as we see limited upside potential
S&P 500 Valuation
32
Current PE
Next Year PE (Estimated)
26
35
24
PE above long term average,
“Expensive”
30
Forward PE ratio above its long term
average
22
20
25
18
16
20
14
12
15
10
PE
Average
Earnings & Dividend Yield (%)
Dec-16
Jun-15
Dec-13
Jun-12
Dec-10
Jun-09
Dec-07
Jun-06
Dec-04
Jun-03
Dec-01
Dec-98
Dec-16
Jun-15
Dec-13
Jun-12
Dec-10
Jun-09
Dec-07
Jun-06
Dec-04
Jun-03
Dec-01
Jun-00
Dec-98
PE
Jun-00
8
10
Average
ROE (%) & P/Book Value Ratio
9
16,5%
8
Earnings Yield at 4,58%, below
average at 5,95%
7
3,5
3,1
2,8
16,0%
2,7
2,6
6
2,8
2,7
2,8
2,8
2,8
2,8
2,8
2,9
3,0
2,6
15,5%
2,5
5
15,0%
16,3%
S&P Dividend yield at 2,06%,
less than US 10yr bond yields
4
2,0
14,5%
15,2%
3
14,7%
2
15,3%
15,5%
15,0% 14,9%
15,3% 15,2%
15,4%
14,9% 14,9% 15,0%
1,5
14,0%
1
Earnings Yield
Average Earn
Dividend Yield
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Average Div
ROE
P/Book
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
1,0
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
13,5%
US Equity Sectors
33
US Equity Sectors View
Equity Sectors
Underweight Neutral Overweight
Current
Previous
Technology
Telecom
Energy
Industrials
Financials
Eurozone
US
Healthcare
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretio.
Utilities
Materials
1
• Using the BOC Equity Screening Model, that screens companies of the S&P 500 Index, using solid
fundamentals, we derive our sector preferences
• Quantitative criteria (such as profitability, valuation, dividends, liquidity, momentum, consensus) are
strictly used for the screening process
• Our screening model assesses companies cross-sectionally (peer and overall comparison) and
individually for the last 5 years.
• This bottom-up methodology, helps us formulate our likes and dislikes across all major US sectors.
We also formulate our preferences for some European sectors using a top-down approach
1
Equity Screening Model excludes financials
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
34
Cyclical Vs Non Cyclical
Sectors Beta
Sectors Estimate Dividend Yield %
1,40
1,20
4,7%
5%
1,12
1,19
5%
1,08
1,03
1,00
0,97
1,03
4%
0,81
2,8%
3%
0,80
0,60
0,60
0,60
2%
0,30
2,7%
2,2%
3%
2%
0,40
3,6%
4%
2,1%
1,9%
1,8%
1,5%
1,4%
1%
0,20
1%
Sectors Performance since US Election
16%
Consumer
Stables
Telecom
Utilities
Health
Care
Materials
Consumer
Disc
Energy
Industrial
•
Cyclical stocks have performed strongly since
Trump’s election
•
Sector performance has started to rotate from
cyclical to more defensive sectors.
•
Cyclicals provide attractive dividend yield, at
upper range of S&P sectors
14,8%
14%
Financials
Tech
Consumer
Stables
Telecom
Utilities
Health
Care
Materials
Consumer
Disc
Energy
Industrial
Financials
0%
Tech
-
12,0%
12%
10,3%
9,2%
10%
8%
9,1%
6,0%
8,9%
9,0%
5,9%
6%
4%
2%
0,4%
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Consumer
Stables
Telecom
Utilities
Health Care
Materials
Consumer Disc
Energy
Industrial
Financials
Tech
0%
Equity Volatility
35
• No fear? The VIX (a.k.a. the fear gauge) is currently
hovering at 12, well below the long term average of
20
VIX
88
78
VIX at historically low levels
• Since the beginning of the year, the VIX remained in
check as it spiked momentarily at 15,11 (27/3/17)
following Trump’s administrations failure to reform
Obamacare
68
58
48
38
28
18
VIX
Jun-16
Dec-14
Jun-13
Dec-11
Jun-10
Dec-08
Jun-07
Dec-05
Jun-04
Dec-02
8
Average
S&P 500 Historical Volatility (90D)
30
• Market participants seem content, in terms of risk, as
the VIX remained below 12 for most of the quarter
• However, as the Trump administration will try to push
forward its pro growth agenda, we expect VIX to
increase during Q2
• S&P 500 historical volatility for the first quarter of
2017 moved further away (below) from its long term
average
25
20
15
10
5
HVOL
Average
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
0
European Equities
36
• Improving economic fundamentals in the Euro Area,
along with a weak euro, supported European equity
indices
European Equity Indices Performances
1 YR CHANGE
Q1 CHANGE
26%
• Spain outperforms European equities, on the back of
improving macro-economic data that support growth
dynamics
22%
19%
19%
19%
15%
11,9%
7,6%
6,5%
6,4%
5,4%
• Inflation dynamics in the Euro Area (2% in February)
and Germany (1,6% in March) are starting to kick in
2,6%
CAC
DAX
FTSE 100
INDEX
EUROSTOXX
50
MILAN
SPAIN
• Technology (+13%) leads the European sectors while
consumer services lag
European Sectors Performances
1 YR CHANGE
Q1 CHANGE
• The troubled banking sector is also posting decent
returns (+8,4%), despite the re-capitalisation process
that is under way
27%
26%
20%
20%
19%
16%
12%
9,3%
13,0%
8,1%
8,7%
6,6%
4,5% 4%
7,6%
8,4% 7,9%
7%
• We keep our one-notch negative view on European
Equities
1,7%
0%
Financials Consumer Healthcare
Goods
Tech
Consumer
Services
Auto
Telecoms Industrial
As at 31-03-2017
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
• However, political risks for the Euro Area remain
(Brexit, French, German elections)
Banks
Utilities
37
PE
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Average
9
8
7
6
PE
Average
Oct-16
9
Apr-16
10
Oct-15
10
Apr-15
11
Oct-14
12
11
Apr-14
12
Oct-13
PE
Apr-13
13
Oct-12
Average
Apr-12
14
Oct-11
15
Apr-11
DAX Next Year PE (Estimated)
Oct-10
Oct-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
6
Apr-10
16
Oct-09
26
Apr-10
36
Apr-09
46
Oct-09
DAX PE is at its long term average
Apr-09
66
Oct-08
Oct-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
DAX Current PE
Oct-08
Oct-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
PE
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
56
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
European Equity Valuations
Eurostoxx 50 Current PE
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
Average
Eurostoxx 50 Next Year PE (Estimated)
16
15
14
13
8
7
6
Asian, Emerging Markets & EU Periphery Markets
38
Asian & Emerging Markets Equity Indices Performances
1 YR CHANGE
Q1 CHANGE
29%
18%
17%
9,9%
19%
16%
11,1%
12,5%
7,9%
7%
-10,6%
MICEX
NIKKEI 225
MSCI EM
INDIA
BRAZIL
Q1 CHANGE
17%
• European Periphery equity markets were in the
green in Q1, Greece is in positive territory despite
the current bailout standoff
11%
8,1%
3,5%
2,5%
7%
2,3%
1%
ASE
CYPRUS CSE
PORTUGAL
As at 31-03-2017
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
• We are now less negative (one notch down) on EM
• “Yen sensitive” Nikkei, is down (-0,7%) on a quarterly
basis, as market participants flock into “safe-haven”
Yen. We change our positive view on Japanese
equities to neutral
European Periphery Performances
1 YR CHANGE
• EM equities have outperformed in Q1 supported by
better growth prospects and fear abating from US
protectionist policies
• Rising commodity prices will benefit EM equity
complex
-0,7%
Hang Seng
• Relative growth in EM is picking up, World Trade
Organisation released its World Trade Outlook
Indicator (WTOI) in February with an increased
reading of 102 vs. November at 100,9
IRELAND
• Cyprus positive, better economic data and country
upgrade, Standard and Poor’s upgraded its
sovereign rating to BB+ with a stable outlook
Commodities
39
• Gold’s stellar performance (+7,9%) in Q1,was
mainly driven by the increased geo-political risks
arising from the perception of global protectionist
policies, the rise of populist politics and a weaker
US dollar. We expect gold’s safe-haven status to
continue to support it through Q2, combined with
good demand from Emerging Markets. We keep our
positive view for gold.
Gold Spot
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
900
•
Crude Oil Spot
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
20
Crude Oil was sold aggressively throughout the
first quarter, falling from a high in Jan of $57,5 per
barrel to $47 per barrel ( -18%), managing to close
the quarter at $50,50 (-9,6%). The price decrease
is attributed to the increase in US crude oil
inventories and increasing US production
capabilities. Going forward, further losses for crude
look limited judging by comments from OPEC
members who are calling for a six-month extension
of the recent production cuts, we retain our neutral
stance.
Commodities
40
Baltic Dry
1420
1220
1020
820
620
420
220
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
20
Commodities Index
• The Commodities Index has backed off from the
highs at the back end of 2016 to finish the quarter
down 2,7%. The sell-off in the energy complex was
partially offset by the gains in metals, in particular
the 7,9% increase in gold which makes up 11,97%
of the Index. The strongest performers within the
index were Aluminium (+15,5%) and Silver
(+13,6%), whilst the biggest losses came from
Sugar (-12,9%) and WTI Crude Oil (-9,6%).
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
60
Jan-15
• The Baltic Dry Index has hit its highest level since
November 2014 buoyed by stronger global growth
forecasts (World Bank forecast global growth 2,7%
in 2017). The BDI Index, supported mainly by its
Panamax component (58% up on a ytd basis)
Trump’s pro-growth policies and specifically
infrastructure spending, has boosted the index this
year. Going forward, caution is advised as the new
US administration’s policy proposals remain
uncertain, along with a repetitive rhetoric on
protectionist measures.
FX
41
EUR / USD
1,25
1,2
1,15
1,1
1,05
1
0,95
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
0,9
USD / JPY
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
90
• The Euro performed well in Q1 gaining 1,5% vs. the
US dollar, benefitting from a tightening of the spread
between the US 2 Yr yield and the German 2 Yr yield
from a multi-year high of 223 bp down to current
levels at 200 bp. Euro bulls were encouraged by
Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s less hawkish stance
combined with a “less dovish” Mario Draghi as well
as a subsiding of political risk from elections in the
Netherlands and France. Going forward we see the
recent Euro rally faltering towards the 1,10 level to
return back for a test of the yearly lows. We maintain
our negative position for EUR/USD.
• Dollar Yen weakened in the first quarter, with the Yen
appreciating 4,7%, touching the 110 level for the first
time since November last year. The strength in the
Yen has emerged as investors begin to doubt
Trump’s ability to reflate the US economy and a
general cautiousness from Japanese investors
towards foreign assets in general. The BoJ’s Yield
Curve Control policy should keep Yen strength
contained, however any move away from their bond
purchasing programme will have a positive affect on
the currency. We expect the pair to grind lower in the
second quarter caught between US growth
expectations and positive Japanese macro data. We
therefore reduce our position from positive to neutral.
FX
42
• The SNB (Swiss National Bank) remains on alert to
intervene in the FX markets at the first sign of any
geo-political event in order to prevent any excessive
strength in the Swiss Franc. The effect on EUR/CHF
trading is reduced volatility and volumes leading to
narrow trading ranges (Q1 range <2%). As long as
there is no change to the status quo we see the pair
holding steady at current levels (1,07), maintaining
our neutral stance.
EUR / CHF
1,3
1,25
1,2
1,15
1,1
1,05
1
0,95
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
0,9
• EUR/GBP has stabilized during the first quarter as
the market is focused on UK domestic politics,
digesting and analysing the potential impact of
Brexit. Although investors are fixated on “hard” vs.
“soft” Brexit, the only certainties are that neither
outcome can be quantified and negotiating the
multitude of treaties will be troublesome for both
parties. Due to the uncertainty we move EUR/GBP to
neutral from -.
EUR / GBP
0,95
0,9
0,85
0,8
0,75
0,7
0,65
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
0,6
FX
43
• The Ruble has extended its gains seen at the back
end of 2016 into Q1 2017 for a gain of 8,2% vs. the
US dollar. All this against a backdrop of weakness in
the energy markets and a cut in the one-week repo
rate by 25 bp, to 9,75% from Russia’s central bank.
Investors have welcomed the transition from
recession to growth as the economy improves,
current forecasts point to real GDP at 1,1% in 2017
vs. -0,2% for FY 2016. We remain neutral on the
RUB.
Basket / RUB Spot
90
80
70
60
50
40
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
30
Dollar Index
Dollar Index Weights
105
4,2%
3,6%
Euro
9,1%
100
Yen
Pound
95
Canadian $
Swedish Krona
11,9%
90
Swiss Franc
85
Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
80
13,6%
57,6%
Investment Strategy Unit
Georgios Lampros, Manager
Dr Marios Soupashis, Senior Officer
Tel:22121809
Tel:22121848
Email:[email protected]
Email:[email protected]
Tasos Hadjinicolaou, Head
Achilleas Petrides, Officer
Tel:22121853
Tel:22121856
Email: [email protected]
Email: [email protected]
44
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Source: Bloomberg, BOC Investment Strategy Team