Does Fairness Constrain Profit Maximization? New Evidence from a Dictator Monopoly Experiment1 Steven R. Beckman, Gregory DeAngelo, and W. James Smith Kahneman et al. introduce dictator games to test whether fairness constrains profit maximization. We show that the standard ultimatum/dictator exchange games implicitly assume perfectly inelastic demand, an assumption that is rather special. We argue that Kahneman’s question is best examined in a more general model of profit maximization. This paper introduces a new experimental design based on a more general demand specification defining a dictator monopoly. Results from initial rounds are similar to those of standard dictator games. As rounds progress, however, dictator monopolists take more, until they finally take it all. JEL codes: D42, C92 Key words: dictator, monopoly, necessity, experiments Steven Beckman, University of Colorado Denver, [email protected]* W. James Smith, University of Colorado Denver, [email protected] Gregory DeAngelo, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, [email protected] *Corresponding Author, 2026 S. Joliet Ct., Aurora CO. Phone: 303 315 2035 Fax: 303 315 2048 1 We gratefully acknowledge helpful comments and discussion from Gary Charness, Elizabeth Hoffman and Lester Zeager. We acknowledge the able research assistance of Eric Cao, Hannes Lang and Michelle Bongard. The paper also significantly benefitted from the comments of participants at the Economic Science Association meetings in Tucson and Washington D.C. and the Southern Economic Association in Washington D.C. Introduction Kahneman et al. (1986, p. S290) argue that fairness “might deter a profit-maximizing agent or firm seeking to exploit some profit opportunities.” The suggestion is that the basic microeconomic model in which firms maximize profit ignores important considerations common in other social sciences and is (1986, p. S286) “often viewed as an embarrassment to the basic theory that people vote, do not always free ride, and commonly allocate resources equitably to others and to themselves when they are free to do otherwise.” The evidence for fairness is quite strong when the results of standard dictator games are examined. As Engel (2011, p. 584) observes, “While normally a sizeable fraction of participants does indeed give nothing, as predicted by the payoff maximization hypothesis, only very rarely this has been the majority choice. It is by now undisputed that human populations are systematically more benevolent than homo oeconomicus.” An important exception to this is Hoffman, McCabe, Shachat and Smith (1994, p. 364) who find that, “In the Double Blind dictator treatment, over two-thirds of the first movers now offer $0 and 84% offer $0 or $1; only 2 of 36 subjects offer $5.” They (1994, p. 371) conclude that observed behavior is “inconsistent with any notion that the key to understanding experimental bargaining outcomes is to be found in subjects’ autonomous, private, other regarding preferences.” The majority of players take it all or nearly all when complete anonymity is guaranteed. Double Blindness plays an important role in Hoffman et al.’s result as subsequent articles show. For example, Johanneson and Persson (2000) find that dictators will even give something even to names drawn randomly from a phone book. Charness and Gneezy (2008) show that knowledge of the recipients’ last name increases generosity. Aguiar et al. (2008), 1 Branas-Garza (2007), Dana, Weber and Kuang (2007), Matsui et al. (2008) among others all provide similar variations on the social distance theme. One interesting finding is that subjects become more self-regarding when price enters the experiment even in a most simplified form. If one is interested in the effect of fairness on profit maximization, why are experiments not conducted in the context of a profit maximization model, particularly in light of the fact that Kahneman et al. point to textbook models of profit maximization in their critique? The standard ultimatum/dictator game is very simple. In the exchange context, for example, in Hoffman et al. (1994, pp 352-3 and pp. 362-363), one player sets a price and the other either accepts or rejects in the ultimatum game or simply acquiesces due “a prior commitment to make the purchase whatever the price chosen by the seller” in the dictator regime. What may strike some economists as unusual is that quantity demanded is never shown to subjects and is in fact never mentioned. When price is considered, a question that is sure to come up among economists is what then is demand and how will it be incorporated in a model of profit maximization? Undoubtedly, the attraction of the division of a fixed sum is considerable. As Engel (2011, p. 584) put it “The experimental paradigm has proven so powerful precisely because it is so simple.” The question that does not seem to have been asked, let alone, answered is does this simplicity comes at a cost? And it does for as we show, the demand function implicit in the standard ultimatum/dictator exchange game is one that is perfectly inelastic. And this type of demand function is far too special to support general conclusions about profit maximization in general or about the restraint of fairness on profit maximization in particular. 2 Having said this, there is no question that the questions raised in ultimatum/dictator game literature are important and interesting. Can be these questions be addressed in a more general exchange framework? And what assumption in the standard ultimatum/dictator exchange protocol must be relaxed? The fixed sum to be divided is the main problem. This is the same as a zero-sum game. Once this assumption is relaxed, then, downward sloping demand becomes admissible and the simple models of profit maximization can be utilized. The simplest model of profit maximization is that of a standard monopoly. How compatible is the standard theory of monopoly with ultimatum/dictator games? We observe that the standard model of monopoly is only compatible with an ultimatum game. The reason is that the consumer can refuse to buy if the price is too high in which case neither the consumer nor the monopolist gains. Can a monopolist in the standard model take it all? The answer is “no.” What then about the dictator game? A recent paper by Beckman and Smith (2013) presents a model for a dictator monopoly. Starting with a general utility function in which a consumer requires a minimum level of a good, they show that the monopolist is able to extract all income from the consumer beyond that necessary for the minimum consumption bundle. In short, the Beckman-Smith-type monopolist can take it all. Will they or are they constrained by considerations of fairness? We conducted experiments in two locations using demand derived from a translated CES utility function (Blackorby, Boyce and Russell, 1978) and, as a contrast, completely inelastic demand. The set of protocols allow us to examine whether social pressures, social norms (Krupka and Weber 2013) and other-regarding preferences, or concern for economic efficiency come into play to deter profit maximization. 3 The results turn out to be instructive. In the first round, dictator monopolists split surpluses in proportions similar to single round dictator games and at times are even more generous. As rounds progress, however, dictators increasingly exercise their market power much to the detriment of buyers. By the final rounds, dictator monopolists take it all. Switching partners in mid-game has only a small, transitory effect. Moreover, exit surveys indicate that the monopolists, far from feeling shame, are quite happy with taking it all. Not surprisingly, the subjects playing the role of consumers are significantly less so. These findings suggest that social pressures, other-regarding preferences and/or a preference for economic efficiency are not strong enough in the end to restrain profit maximization. I. Literature Review Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1986) provide the precursor to the dictator game in a study that pits fairness against self-interest. Arguing that “an action that deliberately exploits the special dependence of a particular individual is exceptionally offensive,” they conjecture that subjects may not fully exploit their power over a defenseless subject, and subjects may well punish anyone who does. In the first stage of the experiment, subjects are given the opportunity to divide $20 by allocating either $10 to self and $10 to other or allocating $18 to self and $2 to other. Of 161 students (only 30 of which were actually paid), 76% divided the $20 evenly. A second stage explores whether subjects would split $10 evenly with someone that plays fair or $12 evenly with someone that exploited the profit opportunity in stage one. Most choose an even split with a fair player even though it costs self $1. If subjects understand that there is a second stage with punishment, then generosity in the first stage may be strategic rather than ethical. By removing the second stage, Forsythe, Horowitz, Savin and Sefton (1994) create the canonical form of the dictator game: Player 1 4 proposes a split of a monetary prize between Player 1 and Player 2. Player 2 is passive and cannot reject the offer or retaliate in any way. Simple economic theory based on self interest suggests that Player 1 will keep all. However, only 35% of these subjects take all and 20% equally split the surplus. The paper prompted a wave of follow-up experiments which demonstrate that behavior in dictator games is sensitive to instructions, design differences and subjects’ backgrounds. Prominent contributions include Hoffman, McCabe, Sachat and Smith (1994) who examine the influence of procedures while Hoffman, McCabe and Smith (1996) explore the influence of social distance between Player 1 and 2. These papers employ Double Blind procedures that guarantee that not even the experimenter will learn of an individual dictator’s decision. The pay method is also disguised with the same thickness in envelopes for pay and no pay outcomes, ensuring that no one will know. Given this level of anonymity, 2/3 dictators do in fact take it all and 84% give $1 or less. Overall, however, Engel (2011) concludes from a meta-analysis that on average dictators offer 28% of the pie. Even minimal knowledge of the recipient however increases generosity. Johanneson and Persson (2000), for example, find that dictators will give something to people drawn randomly from a phone book. Charness and Gneezy (2008) show that knowledge of recipients’ last name increases generosity. Aguiar et al. (2008), Branas-Garza (2007), Dana, Weber and Kuang (2007), Matsui et al. (2008) all report similar results in variations on the social distance theme. Societal values and economic incentives also impact generosity. Henrich et al. (2005) demonstrate the importance of cultural norms while Bolton, Katok and Zwick (1998) emphasize attitudes regarding fairness. Generosity varies with gender and recruitment procedures (Eckel and Grossman 1998 and 2000) as well. Even young children are altruistic (Benenson, Pascoeb 5 and Radmoreb 2007). On the other hand, dictators who earn their role are less generous (Oxoby and Spragen 2008 and Cherry, Frykblom and Shogren 2002). Moreover, increasing the cost of altruism reduces giving (Andreoni and Miller 2002). Haselhuhn and Mellers (2005) report that dictators derive no pleasure from offering equal splits but do experience joy from greed. Bardsley (2008) finds that Player 1s that give to Player 2s will take from Player 2s if the opportunity presents itself. Oberholzer and Eichenberger (2008) add an unattractive lottery to a dictator experiment and find that, even if dictators do not play the lottery, they still take all of the endowment. These studies strongly suggest that self-interest is too weak to alone reliably predict behavior? The counter argument is made succinctly by Ken Binmore (2005, p. 817) As far as I know, nobody defends income maximization as an explanatory hypothesis in experiments with inexperienced subjects … However, there is a huge literature which shows that adequately rewarded laboratory subjects learn to play income maximizing Nash equilibrium in a wide variety of games – provided they have gained sufficient experience of the game and the way that other subjects play. What does the literature on market behavior suggest? There are two broad categories: those that post prices and those that allow buyers and the seller to participate in an auction market calling out bids and offers until a counterparty accepts (see Plott (1982) for a survey of early seminal contributions). Posted prices tend to produce behavior more consistent with monopoly theory while double oral auctions often exhibit prices closer to the competitive equilibrium. Otherwise the basic structure of the experiments is the same: sellers are told the cost of producing each unit and determine price. Buyers then decide how much to buy while consulting their demand schedule. Only sellers know the schedule of costs and only buyers know their demand schedule. As a result, sellers and buyers know only their own pay and not the pay of the other player. These experiments 6 generally run for a number of rounds and show considerable learning and variation across rounds as sellers try to estimate demand and buyers attempt to under-reveal demand (see Harrison and McKee, 1985). What are we to make of these conflicting and shifting interpretations? II. Ultimatum/dictator games and demand theory. One result is clear. When exchange and price are introduced, less sharing takes place. And how are price and exchange introduced in experiments? A prominent example is shown here in Figure 1 which is reproduced from Hoffman et al. (1994, p. 352). Prices set by the seller are reported in the columns and the decision of the buyer in the rows. Amounts in the cells are amounts out of 10 accruing to each player. Two points merit emphasis. First, as is standard in ultimatum/dictator games, the amount of the gain to be split is constant for all prices. Second, the quantity demanded in the exchange never enters the game. Figure 1: Hoffman et al.’s payoff table distributed to subjects. The question that table naturally suggests to economists is what is the demand function implied by the assumptions employed? To examine this question, consider the definition of the total surplus in a market in the context of a simple monopoly (an assumption that seems to fit the context of the game). The following proposition establishes a very simple but important point. 7 Proposition 1: If the dictator and ultimatum games are viewed as a market exchange of units of a good at a specified price where the value of the good to the buyer is higher than to the seller then the total surplus to be divided is constant if and only if the number of units of the good is held fixed as the price changes, that is, demand is completely inelastic. Proof: The total surplus, TS , is the area between supply, S (Q), and demand, D(Q). TS Q 0 D(Q) S (Q) dQ. From the fundamental theorem of calculus and the chain rule, dTS / dP (dTS / dQ)(dQ / dP) ( D(Q) S (Q))(dQ / dP) Given D(Q) S (Q) 0 then dTS / dP 0 dQ / dP 0. The assumption of a fixed surplus thus strictly restricts the structure of demand. Demand cannot be downward sloping because, if it is, the amount to be split varies with price. But completely inelastic demand poses an additional problem for ultimatum games. With completely inelastic inverse demand, the buyer will never reject any price offered up to the point in which total income is exhausted. This suggests that the standard ultimatum game is best viewed as a decision to split a windfall gain, not as an exchange as the term is commonly understood in microeconomic theory. We emphasize that we understand and accept the fact that observed experimental behavior often runs counter to accepted theory. However, it is also the case that the critique that an economic model is flawed because it does not allow for other-regarding behavior would seem to require a test within the model itself. This paper proposes to do so using simple monopoly models. How does one incorporate the important questions investigated in the standard ultimatum/dictator games in simple monopoly models? Consider the nature of the standard textbook model of monopoly. If a monopolist sets the price too high for any quantity, the consumer can decline in which case neither the consumer nor the monopolist gains anything. And this can be true for all prices (at the price where demand intersects the vertical axis). The 8 ability for the consumer to reject captures the essence of an ultimatum game. Can this type of monopolist take it all as in a dictator game? The answer is “no” because, even at the profit maximum, the consumer captures some surplus. What about the dictator game? A recent theoretical paper by Beckman and Smith (2013) provides the answer. III. A model for dictator monopoly Beckman and Smith (1993) and Primont and Primont (1995) derive the properties of marginal revenue for Stone-Geary and Generalized Stone-Geary utility functions.2 The main results are that marginal revenue is: (1) always negative and monotonically upward sloping for Stone-Geary (Cobb-Douglas-type with a minimum consumption requirement) and (2) negative and upward sloping in the local area of the constraint and then positive and downward sloping for other outputs in the case of Generalized Stone-Geary (CES with a minimum consumption requirement). Drawing upon these results, Beckman and Smith (2013) investigate monopoly behavior for demand derived from a general utility function with minimum consumption requirements. Under very general conditions, the monopolist is shown to always maximize profit at the minimum consumption boundary. At the profit maximizing output, the consumer must spend all of his/her income on the minimum consumption bundle and is reduced to the minimum utility level compatible with his/her continued existence. In short, the monopolist takes it all. Given this property, the Beckman-Smith model provides an experimental platform for a dictator game. The Beckman-Smith model is richer than the standard dictator exchange game in allowing sharing of a non-constant surplus away from the global profit maximum and preserving the right of refusal on the part of the consumer up to that boundary. Up to the minimum, the game is, thus, an ultimatum game that then converges to a dictator game as the 2 The defining characteristic for these utility functions is minimum consumption requirements. 9 monopolist finds a price high enough to cut out all “discretionary” consumption above the minimum. A special case derives from the well-known TCES utility function (Blackorby, Boyce and Russell, 1978) defined by U ( x1 s1 ) ( x2 s2 ) 1 where si is the subsistence requirement for each of two goods, xi , i=1,2. Let pi and y respectively represent price and income. It is straightforward to show that the associated demand function is: xi ypir 1 si , with pir i y y pi si and r i 1 . In effect, the cost of the subsistence bundle is subtracted from income with utility maximized on discretionary income. 10 Figure 2: Demand, Profit and Marginal Revenue Demand A 120 100 Price 80 60 40 20 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 8 10 12 Quantity B Profit 100 Profit 80 60 40 20 0 0 2 4 6 12 Quantity C Marginal Revenue and Marginal Cost 20 MC Value 10 MR 0 -10 -20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Quantity -30 -40 11 If fixed costs are zero and marginal cost, c1 ' , is constant then the profit function is ( p1 c1 ' ) x1. The demand and profit functions in our example are plotted in figure 1 for r = -5, y 130, s1 1, s2 1, p2 30, c1 ' 10 . These are also the parameter values used in the experiment. As is obvious in Panel A, demand is well behaved but starts away from the vertical axis, due to the minimum consumption requirement. Panel B shows the profit function which is quite different from the standard one. In particular, profit is maximized, not at the local maximum of p1 23 , x1 3.7 and 47.4 where marginal revenue equals marginal cost, but at the boundary of x1 1.0 where marginal revenue is negative and demand inelastic. At the global maximum, profit is 90 at a price of 100. At this global profit max, the consumer can just afford the subsistence bundle of (1,1); utility is reduced to its minimum value. The monopolist in fact takes it all. IV. Experimental Design Our goal is to cast the dictator game in a theoretically suitable market environment to test whether fairness and/or other factors restrain profit maximization. We use the Beckman-Smith model to this end. We however also use a vertical demand function where one and only one unit of the good is demanded as in the standard game both as a contrast and because it is one admissible structure and is a special case of the Beckman-Smith model. The Beckman-Smith model however also can capture the fact the good may provide utility in larger quantities than are essential. Once a non-essential use for goods like salt, water or food is allowed then the distinction between a global profit maximizing corner solution and a locally profit maximizing interior solution becomes relevant. Perhaps behavior changes in the two environments. We thus 12 conduct both sets of experiments, one with vertical demand and one with curved demand. In all experiments, consumers must buy at least one unit. In other respects the experiments follow the established monopoly design as closely as possible. Rounds are repeated to allow convergence to an equilibrium in keeping with the market convergence literature and because demand is defined for period but many periods are possible. Sellers know the cost of production and set a price. Demand is revealed or hidden by consumers through their purchases and monopolists imperfectly learn about demand as the experiment proceeds. However, sellers do know that buyers must buy at least one unit and that one unit is worth 100 cents to buyers. We conduct a five round tutorial with linear demand, constant marginal cost and no minimum purchase requirement to acquaint subjects with the concept of a local profit maximum in an environment where it is also the global profit maximum. We conducted the experiments in two locations, the University of Colorado, Denver where the primary experiments were run, and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute where the robustness checks are run (Denver and RPI hereafter). In Denver, to be absolutely certain that subject behavior is a revealed preference, we show the sellers the expected price/profit graph for the last three rounds of the experiment. If they have converged on the local profit max, do they know about the global max? If they have converged on the global profit max, do they know about the local max? The general idea is that we have observed their search but we may not know if the equilibrium selected is path dependent. At a second location, RPI, we test the robustness of our results by conducting downward sloping demand experiments no tutorial and no revelation of the price/profit graph. This serves as a check on whether the information may be taken as signal to the price setter either to restrain or pursue profit maximization. At RPI, we employ one practice round. The robustness checks 13 also provide half the sellers with the round by round pay to buyers to see if this information, common in dictator games but not monopoly experiments, affects behavior. We also link the seller to a different buyer about half way through the experiment to see if social norms, otherregarding behavior or philanthropy require some sort of gift to a contact that is new to this particular seller. The physical circumstances, color schemes used and subject pools are all somewhat different adding elements to the robustness check. In Denver 120 subjects were recruited by visits to classes in mathematics, economics, ethnic studies and sociology. Minorities and sociology students are generally thought to be relatively generous and we deliberately went out of our way to include them in the subject pool. Of these 60 participate in a vertical demand experiment (30 sellers and 30 buyers) while 60 experience curved demand. At RPI 30 subjects were recruited via ORSEE in curved demand experiments. The subjects at RPI are less likely to be minorities and more likely to be engineering majors. All are promised a minimum pay of $5 plus whatever they earn in the experiment. In Denver, subjects are in one large computer room with portable partitions that preserve a degree of privacy. At RPI, subjects congregate in a hallway and sellers are placed in one room and buyers in another. The RPI subjects are told the experiment will last at least 12 rounds. In fact the three sessions have 14, 15 and 13 rounds respectively and not even the laboratory assistants know the true number of rounds. This should mitigate any end of experiment effects. The Denver subjects know that the experiment has 16 rounds. In contrast to Hoffman et al., we do not employ Double Blind procedures as they are not used in market convergence studies nor seem appropriate as complete anonymity does not 14 characterize actual market exchanges. In addition, we want to allow other factors that may restrain profit maximization to come into play. We employ a graphical user interface that allows the consumer to buy any fraction of a unit down to 1/100.3 Each round begins with the seller selecting a price. This price is conveyed by z-Tree to the associated buyer. Figure 2 displays the buyer’s screen. The computer draws a line whose length is equal to demand at every integer price. The computer also draws two horizontal lines, one at the price previously selected by the seller and one at the cost of 10. The buyer selects the quantity by clicking his/her mouse on a quantity, and the computer draws a vertical blue line at that quantity. The implications of the choice are then presented by color coding demand. Demand above the price and to the left of quantity is displayed in green and represents consumer surplus. Demand between cost and price is shown in blue and is profit to the monopolist. The rest of demand is displayed in grey.4 The buyer is allowed to click any number of quantities and the program updates the graph and creates a table to report the associated pay to the buyer. The buyer must buy at least one unit and cannot buy any more units than indicated by the demand function at that price. Any click outside the allowable range is recorded as the nearest limit. Once a final decision is made, the buyer clicks a red button to end the stage. 3 We use version 3.2.6 of z-Tree, created by Urs Fischbacher (2007). Additional information is available at http://www.iew.ch/ztree . 4 This is the RPI color scheme. In Denver, the monopolist profit is yellow and the unclaimed consumer surplus is red. See the tutorial instructions for Denver. 15 Figure 2: The Buyer’s Screen In the second round, sellers begin to see historical information. A table on the left of the screen shows the round number, price, marginal cost, sales (to two decimal points) and profit. On the right of the screen, a graph with profit on the vertical axis and price on the horizontal axis displays the price/profit combination as a small green box. Half the sellers at RPI also see a table of buyer’s points and buyer’s pay as displayed in the graph as a blue triangle to see if this information, common in dictator games but not monopoly experiments, has an effect. 16 Figure 3: The Seller’s Screen (with hypothetical prices, profits and consumer surplus) The prices shown in figure 3 have been selected to give the reader an overall sense of the tradeoffs possible in the experiment.5 Economic efficiency is achieved at a price of 10 with profits equal to zero and consumer surplus at 173. The price of 22 is near the local profit maximum and offers 47 points to the seller and 101 points to the buyer.6 While this is somewhat less efficient with total welfare gains of 148, the efficiency is still 85% of the competitive level. Recall that demand is calibrated assuming a close substitute with a price of 30. As the price rises above 30 demand curves sharply and the payoffs rapidly become similar to the standard dictator game with roughly 90 points available per round and any points to the buyer come directly from the seller. At a price of 100, profit is 90 and consumer surplus is zero generating an efficiency of 5 6 Subjects see the display for the prices they select. All points are converted to cash at the rate of one penny per point. 17 90/173 = 0.52, indicating that the corner solution, while globally profit maximizing, is far less economically efficient than the interior monopoly solution.7 After completing these rounds subjects are asked how much of an additional five dollar payment they would like.8 They are paid whatever they request. There are no ramifications from taking the entire $5, nor are there additional benefits to leaving some amount of the $5 behind. This allows us to test the conjecture that some subjects are reluctant to take it all as perhaps some are worried about taking money from the experimenters or are too polite to take all that is offered (Camerer and Thaler, 1995). Hoffman et al. (1994) speculate that subjects may attempt to increase the odds of being asked to participate in later experiments. Some of these same motivations, politeness, an aversion to the appearance of greed and doubts about later consequences in future experiments may also explain giving in the dictator game – a conjecture we want to address. Once the $5 experiment is completed, all subjects fill out a questionnaire that collects their name, age, gender, method of recruitment and whether or not they were a seller. They are also asked to use a seven-point scale to record their degree of irritation, contempt, anger, surprise, envy, sadness, happiness, joy and shame. Confronting a monopolist that presses someone to their absolute limit is likely to be a highly emotional experience. We are curious to see if the milder experimental conditions also trigger an emotional response. On average, the experiments last 40 to 60 minutes with payments generally in the range of $10 to $25. 7 We selected parameters of the utility function so that the monopoly corner solution has roughly half the efficiency of the competitive equilibrium. This seems to us to divide the search space about in half, in that we could have made the corner solution relatively more or less efficient. 8 The program displays: “Enter the pay you want. This may range from $0 to $5.00.” Following the entry, the display reads: “Your pay will be_____ “ (The subject’s entry is displayed.) “If this is not what you want, reenter number at left. If this is your final choice, press the button below.” 18 V. Results Figure 4 shows median prices for the vertical and curved demand experiments in Denver and the curved demand experiments at RPI. Several points are worth emphasizing. In the initial rounds sellers at both RPI and Denver are quite generous. A price of 55 reflects an even split with 45 cents going to both monopolist and buyer (55-10 for seller and 100-55 for buyer). The RPI and Denver vertical demand experiments begin with roughly equal splits of the surplus. The Denver curved demand produces prices that initially offer a super-fair split of the surplus with consumers earning more than sellers. Recall from figure 3 that at a price of 30, 45 cents goes to the seller and 78 cents goes to the buyer. The super-fair initial offers in Denver could be due to the tutorial which deliberately steers subjects to search for the interior maximum, the higher proportion of minority and sociology students recruited in Denver or the fact Denver sellers are not told how much consumers are paid. Although they should know it is more than 70 cents (100-30). As rounds progress, prices begin to rise toward the global maximum of 100 in both locations and in both demand conditions. They rise more slowly in Denver presumably as subjects search more conscientiously for the local maximum. They rise quite rapidly in RPI where no tutorial is provided. By the final rounds, profit maximization comes to dominate for all demand functions and locations. It is unlikely that path dependence or signaling explains the results as the Denver subjects remain at the global maximum extracting all the surplus even after being informed of the location and profit of the local maximum through revelation of the price – profit graph. Supporting this contention is the fact at RPI the convergence to profit maximization is even more 19 rapid than in Denver. If any signal is present, the less rapid convergence in Denver suggests any bias from the procedures is toward fairness and not profit maximization. The broad pattern is consistent whether or not subjects are provided with data on buyer surplus. In the first paid round, the median prices posted by sellers at RPI with and without access to buyer data are 53 and 50, respectively, and in the 13th paid round both median prices are 98. However, connecting the seller with a new buyer may result in a small gift to the buyer. When the buyer and seller matches are changed between rounds 7 and 8 the median price falls from 97 to 92 (the mean price falls from 83 to 74).9 Therefore, there does appear to be a gesture of a five or ten cent gift to the new buyer although the sample size is too small to be statistically significant. If the effect exists, it is transitory and rapidly dissipates. By round 10, the median price rises to 99. Figure 4: Median Prices 100 90 Denver Vertical Demand 80 RPI Curved Demand 70 60 Denver Curved Demand 50 40 30 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Round 9 These differences are not statistically significant. 20 It is traditional to analyze dictator games with histograms. These are presented for the first and last rounds, vertical and curved demand in figure 5. (The RPI and Denver data are merged.10) There is some clustering around an equal split of revenue in the first round but any preference for equality vanishes by the last round. There is also evidence of searching in the neighborhood of the local maximum of 23 in the first round in the case of curved demand. This too all but vanishes by the last round. Figure 5: Histograms of Prices 32 10 Curved Demand First Round Curved Demand - Last Round 28 8 24 20 Price Price 6 4 16 12 8 2 4 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 100 6 20 30 50 60 70 80 90 100 24 Vertical Demand First Round Vertical Demand Last Round 5 20 4 16 Price Price 40 3 12 2 8 1 4 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Turning to the $5 experiment, 77% of sellers and 83% of buyers take the full $5. For those that do not take the full $5, the median amount taken is $4. Table 2 presents a regression that uses first round prices as the dependent variable. The variables Vertical, Female and Denver are dichotomous and take the value 1 if demand is vertical, the subject is female or from Denver and zero otherwise. The variable $ Left is the amount of the $5 that the seller refuses to take. 10 Therefore the last round may be as low as 13 at RPI and is always 16 in Denver. 21 The intercept indicates that prices are near the even split in the first round but if the seller leaves $1 of the $5 offered the price is about 13 cents lower. The vertical demand experiments tend to have higher prices perhaps because sellers in the curved demand experiment explore the region of prices near 30. Denver subjects tend to offer somewhat lower prices although this is only significant at about the 6% level. Females’ reputation for being more generous in dictator TABLE 2 Regression of first round prices Coefficient t-Statistic Intercept $ Left Vertical Female Denver 52.47 -12.56 18.90 3.07 -13.84 8.09* -2.75* 2.98* 0.55 -1.91 * indicates significance at the 1% level. experiments is not borne out in our study. The adjusted R2 of 0.15 indicates much has been left unexplained.11 The survey of emotions in table 3 is also revealing (see Ortony and Turner 1990 for a standard reference). Buyers not surprisingly report significantly higher levels of anger, irritation and jealousy, but this does not appear to cause high levels of shame among sellers. Indeed, they report higher levels of joy and happiness. Kahneman’s observation that exploiting the special dependence of individuals may be particularly offensive is borne out in the higher levels of buyer irritation and anger. Sellers in contrast appear to enjoy their role. “High” levels of happiness for 11 A regression with the amount of the $5 the buyer refuses to take indicates that those subjected to high prices in the first round take more of the $5. 22 both buyers and sellers may be due to the payment of the show-up fee as well as the discretionary payoff. Table 3 Survey of Emotions 7 pt. scale: 1 low, 7 high means: Seller Buyer Anger* 1.38 2.23 Contempt 2.27 2.31 Envy 1.79 2.15 Fear 1.81 1.88 Happiness* 4.50 3.17 Irritation* 1.73 3.50 Jealousy* 1.48 2.13 Joy* 3.85 2.83 Sadness 1.60 1.71 Shame 1.90 1.42 Surprise 3.29 2.63 * indicates significant difference between buyer and seller at 5% level A dictator monopoly has ultimate power to take it all. Will that power be tempered by fairness, social norms, fear of retaliation etc.? The results are informative. Altruism and other motivations beyond self-interest may well be present in initial rounds as evidenced by the low prices initially offered by buyers in dictator experiments. If initially present, however, it disappears by the final rounds. Along the same lines, initial sharing may reflect other motivations such as good manners, apprehension that specific identity may be revealed, fear of retaliation and/or a preference for economic efficiency. Again, if this is the case, these motivations in the end do not prove strong enough to restrain the dictator monopolist who gains experience and learning. 23 The conclusion we are able to draw is instructive. Dictator monopolies do take it all in the end even without the protection afforded by complete anonymity. They don’t feel ashamed of doing so. In fact, they appear quite pleased. VI. Conclusion Kahneman et al. (1986, p. 106) expressed the hope that other-regarding behavior “might deter a profit-maximizing agent or firm seeking to exploit some profit opportunities.” Hoffman et al. examine this question in Double-Blind experiments and find no evidence to support otherregarding behavior. Numerous follow-up experiments to Hoffman et al. do find that dictators will share more even when minimal identity of the other player is provided, for example, names drawn from a phone book or the name of charity. Moreover, when price is introduced, subjects become less generous. We share Kahneman’s hope of deterring the exploitation of market power, if not by altruism, then, by other motivations. In this paper, we pose the question of whether other possible motivations such as shame, fear of retaliation or a preference for economic efficiency will deter full exploitation of market power. We relax the assumption of complete anonymity afforded by Hoffman et al.’s Double Blind protocols to allow other motivations to come into play. The difference of this from previous studies is that we take up the question in a more complex exchange framework more firmly founded in microeconomic theory. The reason for a different design is that, as we show, the standard ultimatum game is not supported by any demand function found in economic theory. The dictator game is in fact compatible with the theory of demand but the implicit demand function has to be perfectly inelastic, an overly 24 restrictive assumption if one seeks to draw more general conclusions about profit maximization and fairness. The results are instructive. In initial rounds, outcomes are very similar to those found in standard dictator games with considerable sharing of the surplus available. As rounds progress, however, monopolists start to take more of a share; until, in the end, they take it all. Exit surveys reveal that far from feeling shame they are quite happy to do so. 25 References Aguiar Fernando, Pablo Brañas-Garza, and Luis M. Miller. 2008. “Moral Distance in Dictator Games.” Judg. and Dec. Making, Vol. 3, No. 4: 344–354. Andreoni, J., & Miller, J. 2002. “Giving According to GARP: An Experimental Test of the Consistency of Preferences for Altruism”. Econometrica, 70: 737–753. Bardsley, Nicholas. "Altruism or Artefact? 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The RPI instructions are below with replacements as indicated for the Denver versions. You have been asked to participate in an economics experiment. In addition to the $5 promised for your participation you may earn an additional amount of money, which will be paid to you at the end of the experiment. Fundamental Concepts In this experiment the computer links one buyer to one seller. The buyer and seller stay connected throughout the experiment. The seller sets the price for the commodity and the buyer decides how much to buy. After both decisions, the pay to both buyer and seller is displayed and a new round begins. Each round is similar in that the options to each player are the same. The repetition allows sellers and buyers to try out different strategies in an effort to determine what is best. The definition of best is left to you. At the beginning of each round the seller is shown a history of past decisions. On the left of the screen the history is shown as a table of prices and profits. On the right of the screen the same information is presented in a graph with the price on the horizontal axis and the profit on the vertical axis. In the first round, both are blank and the seller must make a decision with very little information – all the seller knows is that the price must be a whole number no lower than the cost of production and no higher than the maximum price the buyer can afford. Both these numbers are displayed. As rounds progress, the table and graph displaying the profit and price histories become more informative. Once a price is set, buyers are shown a graph displaying their pay given different purchase decisions. The graph shows the value to the buyer on the vertical axis and the quantity on the horizontal axis. At every possible price a line is drawn indicating the maximum purchase. As prices fall, these lines generally become longer as lower prices allow greater purchases. Values and Quantities 10 9 8 0 1 2 3 4 Consider the example above: the pay to the buyer for the first unit is $10, the second unit $9 and the third unit is $8. Then at a price of $10 you will be allowed to buy no more than one unit, at $9 no more than two units and at $8 no more than three units. 29 Your pay is calculated in the following way. If the price is $8 and you buy three units, then the first unit is worth $10 to you, the second is worth $9 and the third is worth $8 and your pay is ($10-$8) + ($9-$8) +($8-$8) = $2 + $1 + $0 = $3. As a test that you understand, calculate what the pay to a buyer would be if the price was 7 and the buyer chose to buy two units. (Values are as in the chart, the first unit is worth 10, the second, 9). Use the space to calculate your answer. Once the quantity is set, profits for the seller may be calculated. In our example, the price is $8, and if the cost is $2 the seller earns $6 profit per unit. If sales equal 3 units then profit = (price –unit cost) * sales = ($8-$2)*3 = $18. These are the fundamental concepts of the experiment. Please review them now and be sure you understand. The computer links one buyer to one seller. The seller is told the cost of production and sets a price. The buyer consults a graph showing values and quantities. The buyer decides how much to buy. The pay to the buyer is the sum of the values in excess of the price that are purchased. The pay to the seller is (price – unit cost)*sales. Are there any questions? A Practice Round The experimenter is starting the computer program now. The first round is just for practice and is not paid. (In Denver: This sentence is replaced by a section describing a 5 round tutorial, reproduced below.) In this experiment buyers must buy one unit and the first unit has a value of 100. At a price of 100 buyers must buy even though they are paid nothing. As the price falls, they may want to buy more units. At lower prices the buyer’s pay rises. How much they buy depends in part on the price compared to another good they want. The price of this other good is 30. (In Denver vertical demand experiment: In this experiment buyers must buy one unit and only one unit. This unit has a value of 100. ) Each round begins with the seller entering a price. The price must be between the cost of 10 and the buyer’s maximum of 100. Go ahead and enter a price now. Click the red button to signal you are done. Buyers see a graph of values and quantities. If you are a buyer, click with the mouse in various places on the graph to see how it works. Clicking to the right increases purchases up to a maximum and clicking to the left decreases purchases to the minimum of one unit. Buyers are shown their pay in green and the pay to the seller in blue. Gray lines are paid to no one. Click the red button when you have entered your final choice. 30 Sellers see a table showing the price, the quantity purchased and their points. Seller’s pay in points is calculated as the price, less the cost of 10 points, times the quantity sold. Half the sellers also see buyer’s points. There are at least 12 rounds. The number of additional rounds has been randomly determined before the experiment began. (In Denver: There are 16 rounds. Beginning in round 13, sellers will be shown the profit potential. ) We want everyone to make their own decisions so discussions with other subjects are not allowed during the experiment. Direct questions to an experimenter. Go ahead and begin the experiment. The $5 experiment Now that you have completed all rounds, the experimenter is launching another experiment. This time, you enter the additional money you would like to be paid, up to $5. A 5 is an entry of $5. A 2.5 means $2.50. You are paid the amount you enter. The Questionnaire The experimenter is launching a questionnaire. You will be asked to enter a fictitious name, gender, age, how you were recruited and your emotional state. Once your fictitious name is entered, a payment file is generated by the computer and printed. Each of you is released one at a time to collect your pay by revealing the fictitious name you entered. Your real name is used on the paper receipt for pay and on the paper consent form and is therefore never a part of the data file generated by the computer. Your name will never be added to the data file. The tutorial used in Denver only is below. Introduction to the computer program The experimenter is launching a tutorial program now. The tutorial is just for practice and is unpaid. Each round consists of three stages. At the beginning of stage one, sellers see two blank price histories and are asked to enter a number ranging from 5 to 65. In this tutorial, the cost of production is 5 and 65 is the most buyers can pay. Enter any whole number in this range. While the sellers are entering their price, buyers push a meaningless button. Buyers see a graph indicating values and quantities and are asked to click a quantity. Click anywhere in the graph. The horizontal position clicked becomes the new quantity – unless the click is outside the allowable range and then the quantity moves to the closest limit. The screen below shows one possibility and will be used to explain more fully. 31 The horizontal red line at the bottom is the cost to sellers and is currently $5. The horizontal blue line is the price set by the seller - here it is $15. The vertical blue line indicates the quantity currently selected: 25.9. The lines drawn at every price indicate the number of units you may purchase at that price. Given the price of 15, the maximum purchase is 50. Your pay is the sum of the green lines. Red lines show the added pay possible should you choose to increase the quantity purchased. The yellow lines indicate the pay to the seller and calculate the area between price and cost for the goods sold. Gray lines show the remaining parts of the value-quantity schedule that are currently paid to no one. The gray lines are paid to buyers if the price falls and to sellers if the quantity rises. Go ahead and click several different quantities to see how the graph changes. Click the red button to lock in your final choice. While buyers choose quantity, sellers have a meaningless button to push. Sellers are informed about their profit for the period and then round two begins. Sellers are shown the price, cost, sales and profit of the first round and a graph displays price and profit. Sellers are asked to select the price. Buyers then choose the quantity and both see their pay for the round. Continue on to round four. At the beginning of round four, sellers are shown the usual information plus the potential profits at every price. The profit potentials are equal to the heights of the lines drawn at each price. This potential is achieved if consumers buy the maximum quantity. If the buyer sets the quantity below the maximum, profits will be below the maximum. The tutorial has five rounds. Proceed to the end. 32 Cuts: 1. Beckman and Smith show in general that such a monopolist always maximizes profit at the minimum consumption level and never at an interior local profit maximum. The dictator monopolist can take all of the consumer’s income beyond that necessary for other necessities and it is in his/her self interest to do so. At the profit maximum, the consumer’s utility is reduced to the absolute minimum level compatible with life. A Beckman-Smith monopolist can take it all. The question is whether he/she will? To investigate this we do not employ Double Blind protocols as in a market/exchange setting as they are neither commonly used in market convergence studies nor seem appropriate as complete anonymity does not characterize actual market exchanges. 2. The complexity of the model To investigate this we do not employ Double Blind protocols as in a market/exchange setting as they are neither commonly used in market convergence studies nor seem appropriate as complete anonymity does not characterize actual market exchanges. the protocols of monopoly convergence studies.12 12 In the main, market convergence experiments assume that the monopoly is already established, and the costs of establishment are fixed and sunk. Entry is assumed to be blocked. We defer questions of contestability, risk preference, and the public choice question of a market in monopoly rights to future work. Nor do we examine the case of natural monopoly (see Harrison and McKee (1985) on the latter point) and the important issues of regulation and the strategic interactions of an antitrust agency and cartels. All of these are important questions but beyond the scope of this paper. 33
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