“Social” Multicriteria
Evaluation: Methodological
Foundations and Operational
Consequences
Giuseppe Munda
Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Dept. of Economics and Economic History
Ed. B
08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona)
Spain
e_mail: [email protected]
Structure of the talk
•Why Social Multicriteria Evaluation (SMCE)?
•How such an approach should be developed?
•Conclusions
addressed
Complexity
is an inherent property
of natural and
social systems
ignored
COMPLEXITY
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
CANNOT BE CAPTURED
BY A SINGLE
DIMENTION/PERSPECTIVE
Complexity: the ontological
dimension
the existence of different levels
and scales at which a hierarchical system
can be analyzed implies the unavoidable
existence of non-equivalent descriptions
of it
Orientation of the coastal line of Maine
a.
b.
c.
d.
Complexity: the
epistemological dimension
Different dimensions
hard
EMERGENT
COMPLEXITY
and
topologies
soft
Different values and
perspectives
"The issue is not whether it is only
the marketplace
that can determine value,
for economists have long
debated other means of valuation;
our concern is with the assumption
that in any dialogue,
all valuations or "numeraires"
should be reducible
to a single one-dimension standard".
(Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1994, p. 198)
S. Funtowicz, J. Ravetz
facts are uncertain
values in dispute
stakes high
decisions urgent
Decision
Stakes
Post
Normal
Science
Professional
Consultancy
Academic
Science
Uncertainty
Strong comparability
Weak commensurability
Strong commensurability
Weak comparability
incommensurability
•TECHNICAL INCOMMENSURABILITY
•SOCIAL INCOMMENSURABILITY
NAIADE
2 matrices
Multi-, inter-, trans-disciplinarity?
• Multi-: each expert takes his part
• Inter-: methodological choices are
discussed across the disciplines
– Informing the others about object matter
– Criticism, reflexivity
• Trans-: What is it? ....
Consequences: 1) MULTIDISCIPLINARITY
MEASURES FOR
DEMAND REDUCTION
Water
demands
Metereological
drought
Hydrological
drought
Natural water
bodies
Economical losses
and intangible
impacts
Water
shortage
Water supply
system
MEASURES FOR SUPPLY
INCREASE OR DEFICIT
RISK REDUCTION
Socio-economic
system
MEASURES FOR DROUGHT
IMPACT REDUCTION
Consequence:
2) PARTICIPATIVE TECHNIQUES
•
•
•
•
In-Depth Interviews
Focus Groups
Questionnaires
Institutional Analysis
VALSE: Structure of the Troina Case Study
Formulation of the Explanation
Hypothesis
Identification
of the Main Actors
Generation of
Alternative Options
MCDA
Choice of set of
Evaluation Criteria
Construction of a
Criterion Impact Matrix
Application of a Multicriteria
Aggregation Procedure
Construction of an
Actors’ Impact Matrix
Application of an specific Conflict
Analysis Procedure
Interpretation of the Results
Institutional
Analysis
Objectives and Methodology of DIAFANIS
Step 1: Evaluation of alternatives
1. Alternatives Generation
1.
2.
Why a conflict exists?
Which alternatives exist?
Historical
analysis
Alternatives
A1
A2
An
Institution.
analysis
3.
Which system
dimensions can be
affected?
Citizen
Participa
tion
2. Information Structuring
System Dimensions and Hierarchical Scales
Environmental
Economical
Social
International, National, Regional, Local
Data Collection and Participation
3. MCE Algorithm
4.
How alternatives can be
evaluated?
Criteria
Selection
Citizen
Participation
Mixed Information
Alternatives
Evaluation
Step 2: Diffusion of results
5.
What means
transparency?
1.
Existence of
multiple values
3. Citizens meetings
2. School visits
4. International
Symposium
Technical and
Social Rankings
Consequences: 3) ETHICS MATTERS
SOCIETY
Economic
dimension
Social
dimension
Environ.
dimension
Economic
objectives
Social
objectives
Environ.
objectives
Economic
criteria
Social
criteria
Environ.
criteria
Weights in a social framework
Political Democracy
Economic Democracy
Sustainability
Precautionary Principle
K. Arrow, H. Raynaud (1986):
“Social choice and
multicriterion decision making”
Consequence:
4)THE AXIOMATIZATION ISSUE
Desirable Properties for
SMCE
Aggregation Conventions
The idea of social incommensurability implies:
• Multicriteria methods must be as simple as possible to guarantee
transparency.
• Weights in this framework are clearly meaningful only as
importance coefficients and not as trade-off. As a consequence,
complete compensability cannot be implemented.
• Sensitivity and robustness analysis have to check the consequences
on the final ranking of only some clear ethical positions and not of
all the possible combinations of weights.
• Conflict analysis procedures explicitly looking for social
compromises should integrate a SMCE exercise.
• In a policy framework, to have a ranking of all the alternatives is
more useful than just to select one alternative only; this implies
that dominated alternatives cannot be excluded a priori.
From the idea of technical incommensurability:
• Partial or complete non-compensability is an
essential consistency requirement.
• Indifference and preference thresholds should be
explicitly taken into account.
• Mixed information of the widest type should be
addressed in a consistent way.
• Simplicity, meaning the use of as less parameters as
possible, is a very desirable property.
• The hierarchical dimension of a policy problem
should be explicitly considered.
MAUT
ELECTRE 2
ELECTRE 3
REGIME
(H,N,R,1983)
REGIME
(H,N, 1990)
NAIADE
AHP
EVAMIX
PROMETHEE
Martel &
Zaras method
MAUT
ELECTRE 2
ELECTRE 3
REGIME
(H,N,R,1983)
REGIME
(H,N, 1990)
NAIADE
AHP
EVAMIX
PROMETHEE
Martel &
Zaras method
Eff.
Altern.
Compensab.
Weights as
import.coeff.
Mix.
inf.
--+++
+++
+++
--+++
+++
+++
--++
++
+++
+
+
+
+
+++
+
-
+++
+++
+++
+++
+++
+++
++
+
+
+++
------+
+
+++
--+++
+
+++
Simpl.
Hier.
g prob.
From.
Ind./pref.
thresh.
Conf.
Anal.
+++
---+++
---------
--+++
+++
++
--++
++
---
---------
+
---
++
---
---
---++
----
--+++
-------
+++
++
++
+++
+++
++
----+++
++
+++
---------
Table 1. Example of evaluation of some multicriteria methods according to proposed
desirable properties for SMCE
Is SMCE relevant for the
study of Sustainability?
Yang: ECONOMICS
GDP
Yin: ECOLOGY
QUALITY OF PRODUCT
CONSISTENCY
PROCEDURAL RATIONALITY
LEARNING HOLARCHIES
ETHICS
RESPONSIBILITY
QUALITY OF “SOCIAL” PROCESS
TRANSPARENCY
PARTICIPATION
MULTI/INTER-DISCIPLINARITY
Social Multicriteria Evaluation
• MCDM (technocratic)
• MCDA (technocratic)
• non-algorithmic MCE
(loss of the algorithmic
component)
• Participative MCE (loss
of the algorithmic
component)
•Social MCE
•(how to integrate
mathematical
tools with social
processes)
SMCE
MCDM
MCDA
MCDM
MCDA
PMCE