1-year Review of
2018 Employment
Industry Forecast
Division of Economic
Development
Louisiana State University
Louisiana Workforce
Commission
Methodology
1. Baseline statistical model from historical data using the
MicroMatrix software (846 regional industry forecasts)
2. Review statistical forecasts by industry
– Economic causes of trends
– Input from Louisiana driver firms
– Economic development projects and major announcements
3. Staffing patterns are applied to convert industry
projections to occupations
4. Replacement rates are applied to create total demand
5. In-demand occupations are identified
Mid-cycle Review
• Input from driver firms
• Major economic events
– Economic Development Projects
– BP Oil Spill
– Health Care Reform
• Staffing Patterns
• Replacement Rates
Driver Firms
Louisiana Driver Firms
Number of firms
150
Direct Employment
218,947
Total LA Jobs Created
613,967
Direct Wages
$3.2 billion
Total LA Sales Created
$46.4 billion
Region 1 (New Orleans)
NAICS 331:
Primary Metal Manufacturing
2300
2100
1700
Primary Metal
Manufacturing331000
1500
Current
1900
1300
1100
Rec Change
900
700
500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Region 1 (New Orleans)
NAICS 333:
Machinery Manufacturing
4500
4000
Machinery
Manufacturing-333000
3500
3000
Current
2500
Rec Change
2000
1500
1000
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 1 (New Orleans)
NAICS 336:
Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing
16000
14000
Transportation
Equipment
Manufacturing-336000
12000
10000
Current
8000
6000
Rec Change
4000
2000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 1 (New Orleans)
NAICS 721:
Accommodation
18000
16000
14000
Accommodation721000
12000
Current
10000
Rec Change
8000
6000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Region 2 (Baton Rouge)
NAICS 321:
Wood Product Manufacturing
1600
1400
1200
Wood Product
Manufacturing - 321000
1000
Current
800
600
Rec Change
400
200
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 2 (Baton Rouge)
NAICS 524:
Insurance Carriers and Related
Activities
7000
6000
Insurance Carriers and
Related Activities 524000
Current
5000
4000
3000
2000
Rec Change
1000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 2 (Baton Rouge)
NAICS 920:
State Government
28000
26000
24000
State Government920000
22000
Current
20000
Rec Change
18000
16000
14000
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 5 (Lake Charles)
NAICS 336:
Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing
2500
Transportation
Equipment
Manufacturing-336000
2000
1500
Current
1000
Rec Change
500
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 5 (Lake Charles)
NAICS 721:
Support Activities for Transportation
2500
2000
Support Activities for
Transportation-488000
1500
Current
1000
Rec Change
500
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 7 (Shreveport)
NAICS 333:
Machinery Manufacturing
3000
2800
2600
Machinery
Manufacturing 333000
2400
2200
Current
2000
1800
1600
Rec Change
1400
1200
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 7 (Shreveport)
NAICS 336:
Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing
4900
3400
Transportation
Equipment
Manufacturing 336000
2900
Current
4400
3900
2400
1900
1400
Rec Change
900
400
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 8 (Monroe)
NAICS 336:
Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing
1400
1200
Transportation
Equipment
Manufacturing-336000
1000
800
Current
600
400
Rec Change
200
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Region 8 (Monroe)
NAICS 325:
Chemical Manufacturing
900
800
700
500
Chemical
Manufacturing 325000
400
Current
600
300
200
Rec Change
100
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Oil Spill
• Significant short-term impact to industries
that depend on the Gulf of Mexico:
– Fishing, Shrimping, Oystering, Crabbing
– Tourism
– Oil and Gas Extraction and Support Activities
• Long term impacts remain uncertain
(much more clarity after one year passes)
Health Reform
• Significant Expansion of Insurance Coverage
– 16 million uninsured would purchase insurance through
exchanges by 2019
– 16 million additional people on Medicaid or CHIP by 2019
– Expansions alone would add $164 billion to the federal deficit in
2018
– Per capita, uninsured individuals spend 60% less than insured
individuals. For the group that would gain coverage, per capita
spending would rise by 25-60 percent (bringing their per capita
spending to 75-90% of those already insured)
• Significant reduction in reimbursements
– Changes to federal spending (including reduced reimbursements)
alone would reduce the federal deficit by $116 billion
Net Effect of Health Reform?
• The big negative and big positive effects
are likely of similar magnitude
• Care within Medicare population may
decrease while care will increase for the
newly insured
• Downward cost pressure of reduced
reimbursements will likely change the mix
of workers needed
Industry Summary
• Overall effect of recommended changes is an increase in
2018 forecast for statewide employment of 2,422.
• New Orleans, Shreveport, and Lake Charles RLMAs had
increases in overall forecasted employment relative to the
current 2018 forecast.
• Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Monroe RLMAs had
modest decreases to the 2018 forecast resulting from this
year’s review.
• Total forecasted 2018 employment for the Lafayette and
Houma RLMAs remained unchanged after review.
• Changes recommended to staffing patterns
Occupational Changes
• For Ambulatory Healthcare Services and
Hospitals, staffing patterns were changed
to reflect:
– Shift to allied health professionals
– Increased IT staff to support electronic
medical records