Developing Student’s Ability to Reason
about Complex Earth Systems:
A Hypothesis
Bruce E. Herbert
[email protected]
Lauren N. Holder
[email protected]
Texas A&M University Libraries
Geology & Geophysics, Texas A&M University
Nature of Complex Systems
Complex systems consist of interacting parts with open boundaries
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Operate across a wide range of scales;
hierarchical
Usually exists far from equilibrium
Nonlinear relationships with positive and
negative feedbacks
Exhibit irreversibility, hysterisis, or chaotic
behavior
Bifurcations to multiple states
Self-organization and emergent properties
Deterministic and stochastic components
that are essential to system stability
The study of animal aggregations such as schools of fish is one of the more surprising areas
in which complexity theory is proving useful. It is being applied to understand the
evolutionary advantages and drawbacks of group behavior. Science Vol 284 Apr 2 1999
Ecological Hysteresis in a Shallow Lake
Response of charophyte
vegetation in Lake Veluwe to P
Scheffer et al., 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596.
Ecosystem Bifurcations in
the Pacific Ocean
Compound indices of
ecosystem state
were developed from
31 climatic and 69
biological normalized
time series
Scheffer et al., 2001.
Catastrophic shifts in
ecosystems.
Nature 413:591-596.
Pattern Formation in
Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) Reactors
BZ reactors are spatio-temporal chemical oscillators. Using specific proportions of
chemicals, a series of competing and oscillating reaction steps develop.
http://eos.bio.tu-darmstadt.de/giersch/pics/bzr.png
A single experimental record, by Pt
electrode, of simple and complex
behavior observed as transients on
the way to final equilibrium in a
closed vessel.
Applying Understanding of Complex Earth
Systems to Develop Policy or Management
Solutions Can Be Challenging …….
……………Even for Experts
Nature of Inquiry & Design
Environmental Management
Great Smoky National Park has the highest ozone levels in the US
cumulative exposure index
http://www.asl-associates.com/restofstory.htm
Nature of Inquiry & Design
Environmental Management
Great Smoky has the highest ozone exposure at levels
harmful to plants of any national park in America
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90 percent of the black cherry
trees and tall milkweed plants
show leaf symptoms of ozone
injury
28 species show similar signs
when exposed to levels of
ozone during controlled studies
Sensitive tulip poplars show
reduced growth
Reduction of ozone had no
impact on tree deaths
National Parks Conservation Association
http://www.aldha.org/smokey02.htm
Monitoring Ozone, Look Rock air quality station
Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Learning Issues
Development of Accurate Causal Models
Crowd synchrony on the Millennium Bridge
Swaying was first thought to be due to design.
The resonant lateral mode of vibration of the
bridge is represented by a mass-springdamper system.
Strogatz et al., 2005. Nature. 438(3):43
Wobbling of the bridge and crowd
synchrony emerge together as
dual aspects of a single instability
mechanisms
DBER Focus
Nature of Authentic Science
Philosophy of Science,
Learning Sciences &
Science Education
Scientific Research in
Multiple Disciplines
Duschl & Grandy (2007)
Herbert (2006)
Authentic Practices
Authentic Design/Problem Solving
Real-world problems are often different from the school problems
because they are ill-defined, messy, and knowledge intensive (Novick &
Bassok, 2005).
“A good representation of the problem and a good solution method are
needed for successful problem solving” (DBER Report, 2012).
Conceptualizing
Engineering
Design
Design Frameworks
Adaptive Environmental Management
Adaptive management is a structured,
iterative process of optimal decision
making in the face of uncertainty, with an
aim to reducing uncertainty over time via
system monitoring.
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Iterative decision-making
Feedback between monitoring and
decisions (learning)
Explicit characterization of system
uncertainty through multi-model
inference
Embracing risk and uncertainty as
a way of building understanding
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10663.html
Design Frameworks
Risk Assessment
Rejeski, D.W. (1995) Risk and
Vision. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (PM-222A)
Washington, DC 20460
http://www.epa.gov/oswer/riskassessment/ima
ges/nas_paradigm_revised.jpg
Design Frameworks
Ecological Services
Alcamo, J. and E.M. Bennett. 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A
Framework for Assessment. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Available from
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Framework.html
Improving Student Learning
An Emerging Question
Learning supported by progressions of case studies
as well as progressions of authentic practices
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Causal Models (Perkins &
Grotzer 2000; Raia 2012)
Number & Type of Variables
(Chinn & Brewer 2001)
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Patterns and Noise (Rapp &
Uttal 2006)
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Spatial & Temporal Scale
(Dodick & Orion 2006; Kastens &
Ishikawa 2006)
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Uncertainty (Kuipers et al 1988)
South Platte River Watershed
USGS NAWQA Project
Feedback appreciated
[email protected]