Figure 1: Labor Force Participation Rates for Civilian Workers, by Age, Seasonally Adjusted, 1948-2010.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, various years. Shaded areas represent recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Figure 2: Fraction of Elderly Workers in Full-time and Part-time Employment, 1977-2007.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, various years.
Figure 3(a): Historical Trends in Case-Schiller US Housing Price Index: 1890-2013.
Source: Case-Schiller non-seasonal national index levels. Prices are inflation adjusted using February 2014 dollars.
Figure 3(b): Home Values and Appreciation Rates in the US: 1990-2011.
National HPI
Growth Rate
250
15
10
200
5
150
0
100
-5
-10
50
-15
0
-20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Federal Housing and Finance Agency, national inflation adjusted index.
Figure 3(c): Frequency and Magnitude of HECM Loans: 1990-2011.
HECM loans
Average Property Values
140000
350000
120000
300000
100000
250000
80000
200000
60000
150000
40000
100000
20000
50000
Source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
0
Figure 4: Percentage Breakdown, by Cohort, HRS Data Sample, 1991-2010
Fraction of Households in Data 1991-2010
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
AHEAD (born
before 1924)
CODA (born
1924-1930)
OHRS (born WB (born 1942- EBB (born
1931-1941)
1947)
1948-1953)
Not in any
cohort (born
after1953)
Figure 5: Labor Supply, by Age Group, HRS Data Sample, 1991-2010.
Employment by age group
Full-time
Part-time
Not work
89.77
85.38
80.37
72.82
63.85
65.08
62.93
56.6
53.46
46.95
37.16
28.54
21.17
14.99
28.38
23.34
13.73
14.87
15.89
18.15
18.65
16.27
17.69
9.49
50-52
53-55
56-58
59-61
62-64
65-67
68-70
14.32
5.31
71-73
11.31
3.31
74-76
8.16
2.07
77-79
Figure 6(a): Asset Allocation, by Time Period, HRS Data Sample, 1991-2010.
Home value
Housing wealth
financial wealth
property tax
300000
2500
250000
2000
200000
1500
150000
1000
100000
500
50000
0
0
91-92
93-94
95-96
97-98
99-00
01-02
03-04
05-06
07-08
09-10
Figure 6(b): Self-reported (HRS) & National (FHFA) Price Appreciation, 1993-2010.
National Appreciation Rate
Appreciation of self-reported home value
Appreciation of self-reported housing wealth
Average growth rate of hpi
20
15
10
5
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-5
-10
-15
Note: The National Index was constructed using FHFA estimated MSA-specific indexes for
1992-2010, weighted by MSA population. The series was deflated using the consumer price index.
Table 1: The Composition of HRS Entry Cohorts, by Wave.
Wave
Entry Cohorts
OHRS
AHEAD
CODA
WB
EBB
1
1992
1992
NA
NA
NA
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1993
1995
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
NA
NA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
NA
NA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2004
2006
2008
2010
Individual-wave obs.
55544
24869
17802
16719
10072
Table 2: Labor Participation Rate, by Age and Housing Wealth, HRS Data Sample, 1991-2010
Age
Housing wealth percentile
0-25%(low)
25-50%
50-75%
75-100%(high)
50-52
53-55
56-58
59-61
62-64
64-67
68-70
71-73
74-76
66.13 %
64.46 %
58.04 %
50.78 %
38.23 %
28.12 %
22.18 %
14.81 %
10.39 %
74.54 %
72.72 %
69.09 %
61.05 %
44.07 %
31.05 %
25.40 %
18.84 %
13.37 %
78.95 %
76.69 %
70.59 %
62.03 %
46.07 %
32.90 %
26.40 %
19.47 %
14.47 %
80.37 %
78.35 %
72.19 %
63.04 %
50.18 %
36.37 %
29.49 %
22.16 %
17.41 %
77-79
6.05 %
9.28 %
10.97 %
11.98 %
Table 3: Description of Variables
Variable
Labor-related:
Labor force participation
Working status
Description
Annual hours worked
Hours worked per week multiply weeks worked per year
RAND HRS
Wealth-related:
Homeownership
Dummy equal to 1 for homeowners
RAND HRS
Home assets
Reported value of primary residence
RAND HRS
Housing wealth
Reported value of primary residence less mortgage liability
RAND HRS
Property tax
Self-reported property tax liabilities paid last year
HRS
Financial assets
Sum of stocks, mutual funds, investment trusts, checking,
savings, money market accounts, government saving bonds,
other bonds and all other savings
RAND HRS
Financial wealth
Net value of non-housing financial wealth, calculated by
subtracting non-mortgage debts from the sum of stocks,
mutual funds, investment trusts, checking, savings, money
market accounts, saving bonds, and other bonds/savings
RAND HRS
Demographics:
Cohort
Data source
Dummy equal to 1 if the respondent is currently working
RAND HRS
Categorical variable (2 = full time, 1= part time, 0= not working) RAND HRS
Cohort dummies: OHRS, AHEAD, CODA, WB and EBB
RAND HRS
Age
Age group
Age in years
Age group dummies of 44-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-61, 62-63, 6465, 66-67, 68-69, 70-74, 75-79, and 80+
RAND HRS
RAND HRS
Health
Categorical variable that equals one if self-reported health is poor, RAND HRS
two if fair, three if good, four if very good, and five if excellent
Female
Number of children
Married
Race
Dummy equals one if the respondent is female
Number of children within the household
Dummy equals one if the respondent is married
White, black, Hispanic and other racial status
RAND HRS
RAND HRS
RAND HRS
RAND HRS
Education year
Number of years spent in school
RAND HRS
Education degree
Four education degree dummies of no degree, high school,
college and above, and other degree
RAND HRS
Location & wave:
Wave
Census region
Ten wave dummies; 1991 through 2010.
Census region dummies; northeast, midwest, west, and south
RAND HRS
RAND HRS
Housing price index
MSA specific housing price index
FHFA
Local tax burden rate
State specific local tax burden rate.
Tax Foundation
Unemployment rate
MSA specific unemployment rate aggregated from counties.
BLS
Table 4: Summary Statistics, HRS Data Sample, 1991-2010
obs
Total
Mean
Std.
Homeowners
Mean
Std.
Mean
127,336
68,653
20,063
0.4056
0.3860
0.3446
0.4910
0.4868
0.4752
0.4297
0.4121
0.3693
0.4950
0.4922
0.4826
0.3007
0.2751
0.2400
0.4586
0.4466
0.4272
Working status
Working status (boom)
Working status (bust)
127,336
68,653
20,063
0.6765
0.6343
0.5487
0.8722
0.8537
0.8099
0.7144
0.6759
0.5855
0.8795
0.8641
0.8217
0.5114
0.4581
0.3928
0.8192
0.7836
0.7376
Annual hours worked
Annual hours worked (boom)
Annual hours worked (bust)
50,065
25,554
6,657
1,826.75
1,797.09
1,678.67
821.17
841.77
837.97
1,816.45
1,787.39
1,663.99
823.45
842.89
834.58
1,891.65
1,859.57
1,775.23
803.69
831.96
854.15
127,336
127,336
127,336
102,158
127,336
93,833
127,336
95,122
0.8135
136,365
110,537
-1.1719
1383.65
-0.0524
104,523
0.0676
0.3895
155,324
132,882
2.8941
1761.87
1.7494
212,879
1.7358
167,619
135,872
0.2992
1700.78
0.1734
115,768
0.0847
156,256
135,139
2.1349
1810.06
1.4507
221,919
1.6635
0
0
-2.2189
0
-1
55,460.3
-0.0153
0
0
4.4512
0
2.4415
158,783
2.0487
127,336
127,336
127,336
127,336
127,336
66.68
3.2646
0.5703
3.0995
0.7015
10.8
1.1191
0.4950
2.0532
0.4576
65.827
3.3491
0.5523
3.1075
0.7750
10.15
1.0909
0.4973
1.9826
0.4176
70.38
2.8962
0.6489
3.0647
0.3805
12.60
1.1650
0.4773
2.3363
0.4855
127,336
127,336
0.8288
0.3767
0.8533
0.3538
0.7217
0.4482
127,336
127,336
127,336
0.0964
0.0555
0.0194
12.585
0.2951
0.2289
0.1378
2.9288
0.0811
0.0485
0.0171
12.779
0.2730
0.2148
0.1296
2.8276
0.1630
0.0860
0.0293
11.738
0.3694
0.2803
0.1686
3.1996
127,336
127,336
127,336
127,336
127,337
0.2026
0.5949
0.2015
0.0010
2000.9
0.4019
0.4909
0.4011
0.0318
5.5245
0.1771
0.6039
0.2179
0.0011
2000.8
0.3818
0.4891
0.4128
0.0302
5.5349
0.3136
0.5557
0.1301
0.0006
2001.2
0.4640
0.4969
0.3364
0.0251
5.4686
MSA level housing price index growth (%) 121,226
MSA level unemployment rate (%)
127,003
State level local tax burden (%)
127,020
3.8331
5.8791
9.6221
6.6041
2.3697
1.2026
3.7997
5.8720
9.5789
6.5218
2.3756
1.1747
3.9762
5.9102
9.8109
6.9439
2.3437
1.3008
Labor-related:
Labor force participation
Labor force participation (boom)
Labor force participation (bust)
Wealth-related:
Homeownership
Home assets
Housing wealth
log(Housing
wealth)
△
Property tax
△ log(property tax)
Financial assets
log(Financial
assets)
△
Demographics:
Age (in years)
Health (on a 5-point scale)
Female
Number of children
Married
Race dummies
White
Black
Hispanic
Other race
Education (in years)
Education degree dummies
No degree
High school
College & above
Other degree
Year
Renters
Std.
Table 5(a): Difference-in-difference Estimation of Bust Effect [boom 1997-2006; bust 2007-2010]
Variable
Participation
Working status
Working hours
(1)
(2)
(3)
Bust
0.00674
0.01521
-0.09492
Homeowner
(0.0082)
-0.03312***
(0.0072)
(0.0138)
-0.06059***
(0.0120)
(0.0706)
-0.06585*
(0.0257)
0.02291***
(0.0081)
0.00855***
(0.0009)
-0.00490***
(0.0006)
0.06810***
(0.0013)
0.03444***
(0.0135)
0.01333***
(0.0015)
-0.00872***
(0.0011)
0.11141***
(0.0022)
0.03477
(0.0309)
0.00180
(0.0032)
-0.01238***
(0.0022)
0.02515***
(0.0046)
-0.00622***
-0.01027***
-0.00118
(0.0008)
-0.00502***
(0.0012)
-0.10166***
(0.0028)
(0.0014)
-0.00796***
(0.0020)
-0.21409***
(0.0047)
(0.0027)
0.00196
(0.0039)
-0.23889***
(0.0090)
0.00122*
0.0009
0.00427*
(0.0007)
(0.0011)
(0.0023)
-0.03669***
(0.0033)
0.00433
(0.0060)
0.01003**
(0.0048)
0.02575***
(0.0095)
0.03343***
(0.0038)
0.09233***
(0.0048)
0.00609
(0.0400)
0.3312
-0.08040***
(0.0056)
0.02354**
(0.0101)
0.01740**
(0.0080)
0.05889***
(0.0159)
0.05892***
(0.0063)
0.14981***
(0.0080)
-0.01320
(0.0670)
0.3820
-0.11547***
(0.0112)
-0.01976
(0.0189)
-0.02327
(0.0149)
0.08310***
(0.0267)
-0.00295***
(0.0146)
-0.08507***
(0.0166)
-0.17002
(0.1207)
0.1707
Bust*homeowner
Property tax
Financial wealth
Health
Unemployment rate
Local tax burden
Female
Number of children
Married
Hispanic
Black
Other race
High school
College
Other degree
R^2
N
88,619
88,619
32,045
*, **, *** denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively.
Note: Housing wealth, property taxes, and financial assets are naturally logged. Covariates not shown
include survey wave dummies and the set of age group dummies. The omitted age category is <50.
Other than 50-54, all age groups are significant, negative, and increase in absolute value with age.
Table 5(b): Difference-in-difference Estimation of Bust Effect [area-specific boom/bust designations]
Variable
Participation
Working status
Working hours
(1)
(2)
(3)
Bust
-0.02382***
-0.04217***
-0.07122**
Homeowner
(0.0087)
-0.03201***
(0.0072)
(0.0146)
-0.05980***
(0.0120)
(0.0327)
-0.06806***
(0.0258)
0.02048***
(0.0078)
0.00845***
(0.0009)
-0.00497***
(0.0006)
0.06807***
(0.0013)
0.03302**
(0.0130)
0.01323***
(0.0015)
-0.00886***
(0.0011)
0.11137***
(0.0022)
0.03128
(0.0299)
0.00213
(0.0032)
-0.01246***
(0.0022)
0.02514***
(0.0046)
-0.00608***
-0.00999***
-0.00045
(0.0009)
-0.00491***
(0.0012)
-0.10147***
(0.0028)
(0.0014)
-0.00766***
(0.0020)
-0.21381***
(0.0047)
(0.0028)
0.00244
(0.0039)
-0.23906***
(0.0090)
0.00113*
0.00075
0.00443*
Bust*homeowner
Property tax
Financial wealth
Health
Unemployment rate
Local tax burden
Female
Number of children
(0.0007)
(0.0011)
(0.0023)
-0.03662***
-0.08023***
-0.11559***
(0.0033)
(0.0056)
(0.0112)
Hispanic
0.00433
0.02332**
-0.02173
(0.0061)
(0.0101)
(0.0189)
Black
0.00922*
0.01578**
-0.02497*
(0.0048)
(0.0080)
(0.0149)
Other race
0.02700***
0.06191***
0.08129***
(0.0095)
(0.0159)
(0.0268)
High school
0.03347***
0.05900***
-0.00266
(0.0038)
(0.0063)
(0.0147)
College
0.09239***
0.15001***
-0.08499***
(0.0048)
(0.0080)
(0.0167)
Other degree
0.00347
-0.02018
-0.17627
(0.0402)
(0.0673)
(0.1222)
R^2
0.3313
0.3821
0.1707
N
88,634
88,634
32,050
*, **, *** denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively.
Note: Housing wealth, property taxes, and financial assets are naturally logged. Covariates not shown
include survey wave dummies and the set of age group dummies. The omitted age category is <50.
Other than 50-54, all age groups are significant, negative, and increase in absolute value with age.
Married
Table 5(c): Difference-in-difference Estimation of Bust Effect [housing price index values]
Labor participation
Working status
Working hours
(1)
(2)
(3)
Hpi_growth
0.00123***
0.00230***
0.00357***
Homeowner
(0.0004)
-0.02807***
(0.0064)
(0.0007)
-0.05042***
(0.0109)
(0.0014)
-0.05905***
(0.0219)
-0.00136*
-0.0009
(0.0004)
(0.0007)
(0.0015)
0.00862***
0.01302***
0.00284
(0.0008)
(0.0014)
(0.0027)
-0.00510***
-0.00954***
-0.01222***
(0.0006)
(0.0010)
(0.0018)
0.07047***
0.11722***
0.02173***
(0.0011)
(0.0019)
(0.0036)
-0.00420***
-0.0074***
0.00137
(0.0007)
(0.0011)
(0.0020)
-0.00345***
-0.00548***
-0.00080
(0.0010)
(0.0017)
(0.0031)
-0.10996***
-0.23786***
-0.24736***
(0.0024)
(0.0041)
(0.0072)
0.00109*
0.00034
0.00306*
(0.0006)
(0.0010)
(0.0018)
-0.0410***
-0.09082***
-0.10358***
(0.0029)
(0.0049)
(0.0091)
0.01102**
0.03233***
-0.0279*
(0.0052)
(0.0089)
(0.0152)
0.01863***
0.03155***
-0.01507
(0.0040)
(0.0069)
(0.0115)
0.02163***
0.05614***
0.07669***
(0.0082)
(0.0141)
(0.0219)
0.03357***
0.05947***
-0.00065
(0.0032)
(0.0054)
(0.0111)
0.09257***
0.15387***
-0.06890***
(0.0040)
(0.0069)
(0.0128)
0.02544
0.02990
-0.06276
(0.0360)
(0.0615)
(0.0991)
0.3466
0.3917
0.1663
Variable
Hpi_growth*homeowner -0.00085**
Property tax
Financial wealth
Health
Unemployment rate
Local tax burden
Female
Number of children
Married
Hispanic
Black
Otherrace
High school
College
Other degree
R^2
N
121,358
121,358
47,008
*, **, *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% , and 1% level, respectively.
Note: Housing wealth, property taxes, and financial assets are naturally logged. Covariates not shown
include survey wave dummies and the set of age group dummies. The omitted age category is <50.
Other than 50-54, all age groups are significant, negative, and increase in absolute value with age.
Table 6: Longitudinal Model of Labor Force Participation for Homeowners
Both genders
Female
Male
(1)
(2)
(3)
-0.00260***
-0.00346***
-0.00162
(0.0007)
(0.0009)
(0.0011)
0.00448***
0.00513***
0.00369**
(0.0010)
(0.0013)
(0.0015)
-0.00190**
-0.00296***
-0.00038
(0.0008)
(0.0010)
(0.0012)
0.01253***
0.01215***
0.01245***
(0.0015)
(0.0020)
(0.0022)
△ Unemployment
rate
-0.00254*
-0.00033
-0.00607***
(0.0014)
(0.0018)
(0.0021)
△ Local tax burden
0.02530***
0.02188***
0.02921***
(0.0039)
(0.0052)
(0.0059)
0.0103
0.0089
0.0130
Variable
△ Housing wealth
△ Property tax
△ Financial wealth
△ Health
R^2
N
72,713
40,069
32,644
*, **, and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively.
Note: Housing wealth, property taxes, and financial assets are naturally logged.
Covariates not shown include wave dummies and age group dummies.
Table 7: Longitudinal Model of Work Status for Homeowners (Full time/part time/no work)
Variable
△ Housing wealth
△ Property tax
△ Financial wealth
△ Health
△ Unemployment rate
△ Local tax burden
R^2
N
Both genders
Female
Male
(1)
(2)
(3)
-0.00414***
-0.00396***
-0.00456**
(0.0011)
(0.0015)
(0.0018)
0.00695***
0.00687***
0.00715***
(0.0017)
(0.0021)
(0.0026)
-0.00374***
-0.00520***
-0.00160
(0.0013)
(0.0016)
(0.0021)
0.02202***
0.02099***
0.022801***
(0.0024)
(0.0032)
(0.0037)
-0.00564**
-0.00142
-0.01084***
(0.0023)
(0.0029)
(0.0035)
0.04691***
0.04122***
0.05303***
(0.0065)
(0.0085)
(0.0100)
0.0173
0.0128
0.0234
72,713
40,069
*, **, *** denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively.
32,644
Note: Housing wealth, property taxes, and financial assets are naturally logged. Covariates not
shown also include wave dummies and age group dummies.