Key Findings from Ambient Insight’s
“The 2016-2021 Global Game-based
Learning Market” Report
Serious Gaming Cluster Finland
September 22, 2016
Sam S. Adkins, Chief Research Officer
Ambient Insight, LLC
www.ambientinsight.com
Ambient Insight 2016
Agenda

Introductions - Research Taxonomy

Ambient Insight's Pedagogical Framework for Game-based Learning Products

Simulation versus Game-based Learning

Primary Catalysts Driving the Global Game-based Learning Market

Global Game-based Learning Revenues and Buying Behavior

A Cautionary Note on China

Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality Alter the Competitive Landscape

Spike in Venture Capital Flowing to Game-based Learning Companies

All Roads Lead to Mobile
Ambient Insight 2016
Partial List of Ambient Insight’s Global Clients
Ambient Insight Identifies Revenue Opportunities for Suppliers

Adobe

Hasbro

Amazon

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Apex Learning

IBM

Apple

John Wiley & Sons

Apollo Group

K12, Inc.

Berlitz (Benesse)

McGraw-Hill

Blackboard

Macmillan

BrainPOP

Microsoft

The British Council

Oxford University Press

Cambridge University Press
Pearson

Chungdahm Learning


Rosetta Stone

Sanoma Learning

Cisco

Disney
Ambient Insight 2016
About Ambient Insight
Ambient Insight is an ethics-based research firm that identifies
revenue opportunities for learning technology suppliers.
• We track the learning technology markets in 122
countries.
• Ambient Insight publishes quantitative syndicated
reports that break out revenues by customer
segment (demand-side) and by product category
(supply-side).
Ambient Insight 2016
Ambient Insight’s
Research Taxonomy
Ambient Insight 2016
Ambient Insight’s Learning Technology
Research Taxonomy
Seven International Regions
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Africa
Asia Pacific
The Middle
East
Have Six Buyer Segments
Consumer
PreK-12
Higher
Education
Corporations
- Businesses
Federal
Government
State - Local
Government
That Buy Seven Types of Digital Learning Products
Self-paced
eLearning
Courseware
Digital
Referenceware
Collaborationbased
Learning
Simulationbased
Learning
Game-based
Learning
Cognitive
Learning
From Four Types of Suppliers
Packaged
Content
Ambient Insight 2016
Custom
Content
Value Added
Services
Authoring Tools
& Platforms
Ambient Insight Tracks the Learning
Technology Markets in 122 Countries
Mobile
Learning
2016-2021 Worldwide Five-year Growth Rates for
Seven Learning Technology Product Types
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Ambient Insight 2016
Ambient Insight's Pedagogical Framework for
Game-based Learning Products
Virtual Reality
Edugames
Cognitive
Edugames and
Brain Trainers
Knowledgebased Edugames
Augmented
Reality
Edugames
Skill-based
Edugames
Pedagogical Framework for
Ten Types of Game-based
Learning Products
Language
Learning
Edugames
Location-based
Edugames
Role-based
Edugames
Ambient Insight 2016
Assessment and
Evaluation
Edugames
Early Childhood
Learning
Edugames
The edugame
framework provides
suppliers with a
precise method of
identifying revenues
and a concise
instructional design
specification for
developing profitable
edugames.
Ambient Insight's Pedagogical Framework for
Game-based Learning Products
Game-based Learning
Product Type
Cognitive edugames and
brain trainers
Primary Knowledge
Transfer Methods
Bloom's Taxonomy
Domain
Psychometrics
Affective
Knowledge-based games Behaviorism, Mnemonics
Skills-based games
Language learning
games
Early childhood learning
edugames
Assessment and
evaluation edugames
Experiential role-playing
edugames
Location-based learning
edugames
Mobile augmented
reality edugames
Virtual reality edugames
Cognitive
Gagné's Category of
Learning
Cognitive Strategies,
Attitudes
Intellectual Skills, Verbal
Information
Constructivism
Cognitive
Cognitive Strategies
Connectivism
Cognitive
Intellectual Skills, Motor
Skills
Social Cognition
Learning
Affective
Verbal Information
Psychometrics
Affective
Cognitive Strategies
Experiential Learning
Affective
Cognitive Strategies,
Attitudes
Situated Learning
Psychomotor
Attitudes
Connectivism
Cognitive
Intellectual Skills, Motor
Skills
Kinesthetic Learning,
Experiential Learning,
Observational Learning
Psychomotor
Intellectual Skills, Motor
Skills
The edugame framework provides suppliers with a precise method of
identifying revenues and a concise instructional design specification for
developing profitable edugames.
Ambient Insight 2016
2016-2021 Global Market Forecasts for Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Learning

Ambient Insight separates Game-based Learning revenues and
Simulation-based Learning revenues

There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Learning

Our definitions are based on the definitions developed by Alessi
and Trollip

Our edugame pedagogical framework is based on the taxonomies
of Bloom and Gagné
Global Revenues by
Learning Product Type***
2016
Revenues
2021
Revenues
in US$ Millions
in US$ Millions
Five-Year
CAGR
2016-2021
Simulation-based Learning
$5,167.87
$11,310.43
17.0%
Game-based Learning
$2,661.96
$7,324.84
22.4%
*** Does not include hardware, tools, or custom services
Ambient Insight 2016
Catalysts
The global five-year growth rate for Game-based
Learning is a robust 22.4% and revenues will surge to
$7.3 billion by 2021.
Ambient Insight 2016
Primary Catalysts Driving the 2016-2021 Worldwide
Game-based Learning Market
Diminishing
Resistance to
Edugames in
Corporate &
Academic
Segments
Strong
Demand for
Language
Learning
Products
Spike in
Demand for
Early
Childhood
Learning
Apps
Empirical
Evidence on
the
Effectiveness
of Edugames
Booming Global
Revenues for
Game-based
Learning
Products
High Demand
for Mobile
Cognitive
Edugames &
Brain Trainers
Ambient Insight 2016
Product
Substitution
as Buyers
Migrate
Away from
Legacy
Products
Primary Catalysts Driving the 2016-2021 Worldwide
Game-based Learning Market
• Diminishing Resistance to Edugames in the
Corporate Segment
– New psychometric-based recruiting and job candidate
evaluation games gain rapid adoption in corporations
Several new companies
that specialize in this type
of edugame have come on
the market in just the last
2-3 years including
pymetrics, Revelian,
Knack, Scoutible, SHFuse,
RoundPegg, Arctic Shores,
and High Voltage
Software.
Source: Knack
Ambient Insight 2016
Primary Catalysts Driving the 2016-2021 Worldwide
Game-based Learning Market
• Edugames concentrated in the early grades and gaining
traction for STEM topics in the higher grades – adoption is
about to accelerate with major players entering the market
• Microsoft buys Mojang’s Minecraft for an
astonishing $2.5 billion in late 2014.
Schools and districts can purchase annual
licenses to Microsoft’s Minecraft: Education
Edition for between $1 and $5 per student.
• In June 2016, Unity launched the Unity
Educator Toolkit: a bundle of free training
content and discounted platform licenses
for post-secondary institutions and
announced a grant program for PreK-12
schools.
• GlassLab's edugames are being used in
over 10,000 schools. In June 2016 they
announced an educational version of wildly
popular role-playing game Civilization called
CivilizationEDU in the latter half of 2017.
Ambient Insight 2016
Primary Catalysts Driving the 2016-2021 Worldwide
Game-based Learning Market
•
Empirical Evidence on the Effectiveness of Edugames
–
•
A steady flow of meta-analysis shows that Game-based Learning MORE effective
knowledge transfer method than conventional methods
Product Substitution as Buyers Migrate Away from Legacy
Products
–
Self-paced eLearning in steep decline across the planet - We no longer sell our
eLearning reports – suppliers won’t pay for bad news
Source: Akili Interactive Labs
High Demand for Mobile Cognitive
Edugames & Brain Trainers
Ambient Insight 2016
Source: Pearson’s Cogmed

Next-generation cognitive edugames
based on neuroscience hit the
market

Brain Trainers consistently rank in
the top ten bestsellers in app stores
Primary Catalysts Driving the 2016-2021 Worldwide
Game-based Learning Market
•
Spike in Demand for Early Childhood Learning Edugames
–
Consistently rank in the top ten best-selling apps in app stores across the planet
–
All early childhood learning apps have some degree of gameplay and Age of
Learning’s ABCmouse popular in over 100 countries
–
PBS KIDS, Disney, LEGO, Mattel, Sesame Street, Spin Master, Toca Boca, and
Sago Mini, are major early childhood learning edugame developers.
–
Duck Duck Moose, PlayKids, DragonBox, Osmo, Thup Games, 22learn, and Dr.
Panda are also well-known early childhood learning edugame developers.
Source: Dr. Panda
Source: Duck Duck Moose
Ambient Insight 2016
Source: ABCmouse
Primary Catalysts Driving the 2016-2021 Worldwide
Game-based Learning Market
•
Strong Demand for Language Learning Edugames
–
The global growth rate for language learning edugame is a robust 23.2% and
revenues will surge to $896.2 million by 2021, up from $315.7 million in 2016.
–
The growth rate in the US is higher at 31.1% for this type of edugame and
revenues will nearly quadruple by 2021 in the US.
Source: Dinolingo
Source: Mingoville
Ambient Insight 2016
Source: influent
Mobile Location-based Learning: Proximity
Triggers Knowledge Transfer
Proximity Perimeter
(Geofence)
Locationbased
Learning
Triggers
LBL
Markers
Physical
Presence:
Location in
Space and
Time
LBL
Anchors
Locationbased
Learning
Objects
Ambient Insight 2016
Major Catalyst: Indoor Positioning Systems
Evolving Fast
Mobile Location-based Learning: Proximity
Triggers Knowledge Transfer
• This Mobile Learning type emerged in 2009.
Developers are designing learning experiences
triggered at geotagged physical locations and in
time.
– Resources Game is a GPS-based economic simulation
game, "in which you have to scan your surroundings in the
real-world to find resources, then extract and use them to
manufacture new products to sell."
– The GPS Mission edugame sends users on "a scavenger
hunt adventure to reach destinations and answer
questions. Users can create their own missions for the site,
involving locations of local buildings and historical sites."
– LocoMatrix’s Time Team is an "archaeology game for
schools and museums. Dig up a Roman villa from the
comfort of your own playing field.”
Ambient Insight 2016
Global Game-based Learning
Revenues and Buying Behavior
Consumers Dominate the Global Game-based
Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2016
Longitudinal Analysis: Global Five-Year Compound Annual
Growth Rates (CAGRs) for Game-based Learning Products
Five-year CAGRs for Last Eleven Forecast Periods
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Forecast Periods
Ambient Insight 2016
2016-2021 Worldwide Game-based Learning
Five-year Growth Rates by Region
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Asia Pacific The Middle
East
Africa
Eleven countries in Africa and ten countries in Asia Pacific are mobile-only
countries. Mobile Learning and mobile edugames are the only viable
learning technologies in those countries
Ambient Insight 2016
A Major Inhibitor: A Cautionary Note on China
• China issued new online content rules in June 2016
that dramatically impact mobile game developers
– Driving out small development and indie companies
– “Foreign company seeking to gain a foothold in the market must
now do so in partnership with a Chinese company, and only with
government approval.”
– Mobile game developers must submit their game for approval on
an active smartphone and mail it to the government!!!!!!
– The approval process is fee-based (pay-to-win but more likely to
lose) an it can takes months to find out if your game is approved
– The government is systematically weeding out all games that
include what they consider inappropriate (religion, national
security, politics, obscenity, drug use, violence, or gambling, etc.)
– But they are also weeding out games with English language
content – even the presence of a single English word or acronym
will result in the game being banned
Ambient Insight 2016
Augmented Reality and Virtual
Reality Edugames Alter the
Competitive Landscape
The Pokémon Go Phenomenon is a Good Omen
for Augmented Edugames
Ambient Insight 2016
Google’s Cardboard: Augmented Reality
Goes to School
•
All of the major technology players are now heavily invested in
augmented reality and virtual reality including Google, Apple,
and Microsoft.
•
One of the best known augmented reality platform is PTC's
Vuforia (formerly owned by QUALCOMM).
– Of the 88 AR games in their catalog, 42 were edugames and they were
all designed for young children.
•
Disney has an app called Disneynature Explore:
– "Kids can select the animal they want to see with the Disneynature
Explore app, and then carry out different activities for each. They can
either choose to play with brown bears and catch salmons in their
neighborhood or their own backyard or they can make animal noises
for calling these virtual animals onto the screen."
•
Alive Studios sells a range of augmented storybooks for young
children called Storybooks Alive. They sell the print-based
books and provide the AR component for free in the
commercial app stores.
Ambient Insight 2016
Virtual Reality Edugames Hit the Market
• In July 2015, a company called Touchstone Research
released the results of a survey of 500 children on the
topic of VR.
– 79% of the kids were aware of VR
– But the interesting thing is what they said they wanted to
do with VR:
• 64% wanted to visit another country,
• 64% wanted to go someplace they could not go in reality (like
space or another planet),
• 62% wanted to go on an adventure, and
• 58% wanted to travel back in time (not surprisingly, most of
them wanted to go back to see dinosaurs in their natural
surroundings.)
Ambient Insight 2016
Virtual Reality Edugames Hit the Market
•
VR edugames are 100% immersive and experienced while
wearing a smartphone-enabled headset or using a 3D viewer
like Google's Cardboard or Samsung's Gear.
– In January 2015, the game developer Nival launched a new division
called NivalVR that focusses on mobile educational VR games. Their
first game was inMind and their inCell app came out in September
2015.
– Cerevrum’s first VR edugame is a brain trainer. "Cerevrum is
rethinking learning itself and designing fun VR neurogaming
experiences."
– Google and Mattel announced a partnership in February 2015 to
launch a smartphone-enabled product for the iconic View-Master that
displays animated virtual learning experiences when the viewer is
pointed at a physical "experience reel" (a physical disk-shaped
trigger). The device shipped in October 2015.
– The Discovery Channel has an app called Discovery VR. "Available
options include watching Discovery Channel programs in a whole new
way, along with other adventures like walking in space, roaming
through Muir Forest, or swimming with sharks.”
Ambient Insight 2016
Spike in Venture Capital Going to
Game-based Learning Companies
Ambient Insight 2016
2010-H1/2016 Global Private Investment in Game-based
Learning Companies (in US$ Millions)
Deal Totals in
US$ Millions
$350
$325
$300
$275
$250
$225
$200
$175
$150
$125
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$325.0 Million Went to Thirty-Seven Game-based
Learning Companies in the First Half of 2016
Ambient Insight 2016
H1-2016
Investors are Now Clearly Interested in
Game-based Learning
•
In 2011, $32.5 million went to Game-based Learning
companies, more than double the $12.6 million in 2010.
•
Game-based Learning suppliers across the globe garnered
$106.3 million in funding in 2014. An unprecedented $165.9
million was invested in 35 edugame suppliers in 2015.
•
A total of $325.0 million has been invested in 37 Gamebased Learning companies in just the first half of 2016.
• Age of Learning garnered a breathtaking $150 million in investment in
May 2016. This is the highest investment ever made to a Gamebased Learning company in the history of the learning technology
industry.
• Brazil-based PlayKids obtained $15 million in June 2015 and another $40
million in June 2016.
• Kidaptive obtained $8.1 million funding in January 2016.
• Matific obtained an impressive $45 million in funding in late July 2016.
They have obtained $57 million in funding since 2015.
• Akili Interactive Labs garnered $30.5 million in investment in January
2016 and another $11.9 million in July 2016.
Ambient Insight 2016
All Roads Lead to Mobile
Ambient Insight 2016
In the US, Mobile Edugames Outsell PC/Online/Console
Edugames by a Wide Margin

The global growth rate for non-mobile Game-based Learning
products is 5.6%


The growth rate for non-mobile edugames in the US is quite
negative at -13.2%
The global growth rate for mobile edugames is 26.0% and
revenues will reach $6.5 billion by 2021
Global Edugame
Revenues by Delivery
Platform
2016
Revenues
2021
Revenues
in US$ Millions
in US$ Millions
Five-Year
CAGR
2016-2021
PC/Web/Console
Edugames
$612.25
$805.73
5.6%
Mobile Edugames
$2,049.71
$6,519.11
26.0%
Total
$2,661.96
$7,324.84
22.4%
*** Does not include hardware
Ambient Insight 2016
Questions
For More Information Email:
[email protected]
Ambient Insight 2016