Internet in 2035
Vint Cerf
May 2008
1
Regional Internet Statistics - 2008
Region
Asia
Internet
Population
510.5 Mil.
%
penetration
13.7 %
Europe
348.1 Mil.
43.4 %
North Am.
238.0 Mil.
71.1%
LATAM/C
126.2 Mil.
22.2 %
Mid-East
33.5 Mil.
17.4 %
Oceania
19.2 Mil.
57.1 %
Africa
44.4 Mil.
4.7 %
TOTAL
1,320 Mil.
20.0 %
2
Population Projections
www.un.org/esa/population/publications/
longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
3
Projections - World Population
4
Population Projections - World
5
Population projections - Europe
6
Population Projection - Asia
7
Projections 2035
Global Warming and oil/water shortages - serious consequences
population demographics - coastal areas flooding
Water shortages - water tankers
Desalinization - side effects from salt??
IT to substitute for transportation? (virtual meetings)
IT to minimize transportation (efficient scheduling)
Energy production/consumption (IT a big consumer)
Nuclear vs Ethanol, Wind, Solar, Geo-thermal
8
Internet Projections - 2035
Internet at age 52 (b. 1983)
World Population - 8.12 Billion
Internet Penetration - 70% (world average)
Note: >100% in developed countries
Device Penetration - 60 Billion (O(10) devices/person)
IPv6 only (IPv4 may lurk in dark corridors)
9
Internet - Global Statistics 2035
10 Billion Hosts
542 Million Hosts
(Wikipedia 2035)
(ISC Jan 2008)
5.7 Billion Users
1,320 Million Users
(Wikipedia 2035)
(InternetWorldStats.com,
December 30,2007)
(approx. 6 Billion Broadband Terminations plus 10 B mobiles
and >12 Billion PCs)
10
Information Ecology
•Wired and Wireless Internet Infrastructure
•Online business infrastructure
– Intra-/Inter-corporate and government-business transactions
– Cloud Computing (Virtualization and Computational Mobility)
– Collaboration in virtual environments
– Seamless joining of real and virtual environments
• Convergence of digital objects and processes (discovery and
rendezvous)
• Statewide (National?) Databases
– INSTEDD anecdote
– Statistical data mining for planning and projections
11
Commercial Ecology - 2035
Population demographics (US aging population, ethnic diversity)
Competition with India, China, Europe
US GDP about 50% or less than Asia?
Production rate of scientists, engineers - 10% or less?
a) What are the REAL numbers?
b) We aren’t going to beat them on the numbers.
12
Physical Infrastructure
Energy and Water ecology
Minimization, re-utilization, local production
Information and Transportation
Trade-offs, Real-Time optimizations
Smart Road Systems (pilotless cars?)
Serious electric trains? (TGV, Shinkansen)
13
Socio-Economic Effects of Internet - 2035
•Internet transports and display print, video, audio media
•Internet group interaction - political actions, polling, marketplaces
•Information Consumers are the Producers
– Blogging, YouTube/Google Video, Personal Web Pages, wisdom of crowds
•Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia) - data mining mass information
•Social Networking (Linked in, My Space, Facebook, Orkut…) - Robot
representatives
•Gameplaying (Second Life, World of Warcraft…) - holographics
•New Business Models
– eBay, Amazon, Dell, Google, Yahoo!,MSN, AOL, iTunes, VOIP…
– Paper publication limited to special editions, online is the norm
14
IPTV
• Streaming and Downloading
– iPOD and vPOD behaviors?
• Mixing of all media as IP packets
• Ancillary information access
– Downloaded texts, programs, videos, audio, captions
– Advertising material
• Screen Control (icons, widgets)
• Multiple streams to multiple displays (beauty of packet switching)
• Online interaction while viewing
– Group commentary
– Advertising and product information
15
Mobility and Mobiles - 2035
• 10 Billion Mobiles and counting (85% Internet enabled)
• Text/Web Access
• Payment systems
• Remote control of services and devices
• Innovative interfaces - Note I/O discovery, voice, haptics
• Navigation systems
– GPS, Galileo?, Mobile Tower triangulation, Bldg Announcements
• Geo-location based services
16
Internet-enabled Devices
17
Internet-enabled Devices
Programmable – Java, Python, etc.
Examples:
• WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture
Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board!
• Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales)
• Automobiles
• Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine:
Schrödinger’s wine bottle)
• Internet-enabled socks (clothing)
• Universal Remote Controls
• Sensor Networks
• RFID trackers (luggage, keys, “where’s my stuff?”)
18
Challenges of the Digital Age
•Intellectual property treatment
– Digital material is easy to copy and distribute
•Semantic Web
•Complex objects that can only be rendered via computer
– 3D interactive objects
– Complex spreadsheets
– Interactive environments
•BIT ROT!
– Preserving interpretive programs (Windows 3000 and PPT 1997)
– And the operating systems that run them
– And the hardware that run the operating systems
– For thousands of years!!
19
InterPlaNetary Internet
20
21
22
23
24
Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN)
•Planetary internets
•Interplanetary Gateways
•Interplanetary Long-Haul Architecture
–
Licklider Transport Protocol (LTP)
–
Bundle Protocol (RFC 5050)
(RFC 4838)
• Delayed Binding of Identifiers
• Email-like behavior
•Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols
–
Tactical Mobile applications
–
Civilian Mobile applications
–
Deep Impact Testing 2008
–
Space Station Testing 2009
–
Mars Science Station 2035
–
Planetary orbiters
–
Atmospheric floaters
–
Ground sensor networks
25
•End-to-end information flow across the solar system
•Layered architecture for evolvability and
interoperability
•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long
round trip light times
•Integrated communications and navigation services
26