Session 5 Payout Policy FIN 625: Corporate Finance Learning Objectives LO 1: Explain the general terminologies and price behavior with regard to corporate payout. LO 2: Explain the conditions under which payout policies matter or do not matter. LO 3: Explain the benefits and drawbacks of share purchase vs. dividend. LO 4: Explain the dividend “smoothing” mechanism by corporations. Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Importance of Corporate Payout General Terminology and Price Behavior The Irrelevance of Payout Policy The Relevance of Payout Policy What Do We Know About Corporate Payout Stock Dividend 1. Importance of Corporate Payout Taken from Servaes and Tufano (2006): CFO Views on the Importance and Execution of the Finance Function. Importance of Corporate Payout 2. General Terminology and Price Behavior Many companies pay a regular cash dividend. Firms often repurchase their own shares back. Open market Tender offer Targeted repurchase (“Greenmail”) Companies will often declare stock dividends. Public companies often pay quarterly. Sometimes firms will pay an extra cash dividend. Terms: dividend per share, dividend yield (div/P), dividend payout ratio (div/NI) No cash leaves the firm. The firm increases the number of shares outstanding. Some companies declare a dividend in kind. Wrigley’s Gum sends a box of chewing gum. Survey Evidence on Different Types of Payout 93% Regular dividends Share repurchases 39% 25% Special dividend 13% Split or reverse split Stock dividend 8% Taken from Servaes and Tufano (2006): The Theory and Practice of Corporate Payout Policy Procedure for Cash Dividend 25 Oct. 2 Nov. 3 Nov. 5 Nov. 7 Dec. … Declaration Date ExCumdividend dividend Date Date Record Date Payment Date Declaration Date: The Board of Directors declares a payment of dividends. Cum-Dividend Date: Buyer of stock still receives the dividend. Ex-Dividend Date: Seller of the stock retains the dividend. Record Date: The corporation prepares a list of all individuals believed to be stockholders of the firm. Price Behavior In a perfect world, the stock price will fall by the amount of dividend on the ex-dividend date. -t … -2 -1 0 +1 +2 … $P $P - div The price ex-dividend drops by the Date amount of the Taxes complicate things a bit. Prices drop by dividend. div (1-TP), where TP is the personal tax rate. 3. The Irrelevance of Payout Policy Key assumptions for M&M Dividend Irrelevance Proposition: Fixed investment policy No transactions costs No (personal) taxes Rationality The interests of managers and shareholders are aligned No asymmetric information (managers do not know more about the firm than shareholders) Homemade Dividend Dividend Inc. is a $42 stock which is about to pay a $2 cash dividend. Bob owns 80 shares and prefers a $3 dividend. Let’s compare how Bob fares if the firm pays $3 cash dividend instead, or he simply follows the “homemade” dividend strategy. Homemade Dividend Bob’s homemade dividend strategy: Sell _2__ shares ex-dividend homemade dividends Cash from dividend $160 Cash from selling stock $80 Total Cash $240 Value of Stock Holdings $40*78=$3,120 $3 Dividend $_240__ $_0__ $_240__ $39*80=$3,120 Dividend Policy is Irrelevant In the above example, Bob began with a total wealth of $3,360: $42 $3,360 80 shares share After a $3 dividend, his total wealth is still $3,360: $39 $3,360 80 shares $240 share After a $2 dividend and sale of 2 ex-dividend shares, his total wealth is still $3,360: $40 $3,360 78 shares $160 $80 share Repurchase Policy is Irrelevant In an ideal word, consider a firm that wishes to distribute $100,000 to its shareholders. Assets Liabilities & Equity A. Original balance sheet Cash $150,000 Other Assets 850,000 Value of Firm 1,000,000 Debt 0 Equity 1,000,000 Value of Firm 1,000,000 Shares outstanding = 100,000 Price per share = $1,000,000 /100,000 = $10 Stock Repurchase versus Dividend If they distribute the $100,000 as a cash dividend, the balance sheet will look like this: Assets Liabilities & Equity B. After $1 per share cash dividend Cash $_50,000_ Debt Other Assets $_850,000_Equity $_900,000_ Value of Firm $_900,000_Value of Firm $_90,0000_ Shares outstanding = _100,000_ Price per share = $_9_ 0 Stock Repurchase versus Dividend If they distribute the $100,000 through a stock repurchase, the balance sheet will look like this: Assets Li abilities & Equity C. After stock repurchase Cash $50,000 Debt Other Assets $850,000 Equity $900,000 Value of Firm $900,000 Value of Firm $900,000 Shares outstanding = _90,000_ Price per share = _$10_ 0 4. The Relevance of Payout Policy The irrelevance of the payout policy hinges on the “perfect market” assumptions. Violations of these assumptions may lead to the result that payout policy is relevant. If investment policy is not held constant, then firms should never forgo positive NPV projects to increase payout (or to initiate payout), because while investment policy can increase firm value, payout policy cannot. When Is Payout Policy Relevant? Issuance costs This implies firms should avoid paying dividends or repurchasing shares, to reduce the need to go to external capital market to raise funds and incur such costs. Personal taxes Firms should avoid payout if they do not have sufficient cash flows to pay. When cash flows are ample, repurchase is better than dividend, because “effective” tax rate under repurchase is lower. Repurchase is taxed on the profit of the trade, while dividend is taxed on the total cash receipts. Capital gains tax under repurchase can be deferred. When Is Payout Policy Relevant? Irrationality - Behavioral Finance Agency costs Corporate payout, especially dividend solves the self-control problem. Corporate payout, especially dividends reduce free cash flows. Asymmetric information - signaling Payout increase or initiation signals good prospect of the firm. Companies often cite “depressed” stock price as a reason for repurchase. Dividend may have a stronger signaling effect, because cutting dividend is very costly. Other Factors Favoring Repurchase vs. Dividend Flexibility for firms Executive compensation Cutting dividend is more costly than cutting repurchase. Executives favor a higher stock price associated with repurchase because of their stocks and options. Offset to dilution Increase earnings-per-share (EPS) Survey Evidence on Repurchase Vs. Dividend Taken from Brav at al. (2005): Payout Policy in the 21st Centrary. Survey Evidence on Rationale for Repurchase Taken from Brav at al. (2005): Payout Policy in the 21st Centrary. Time Trend for Dividend and Repurchase in the U.S. 5. What Do We Know About Corporate Payout Aggregate payouts are massive and have increased over time. Corporate payouts are heavily concentrated among a relatively small number of large, mature firms. Stock prices react to unanticipated changes in dividends and repurchases. Managers are reluctant to cut dividends, even if this means bypassing positive NPV projects. Repurchases vary with transitory earnings. Taxes and issuance costs matter for dividend policy, but only of a second degree. Corporations “smooth” dividends. Time Trend for Fraction of Dividend Payers Lintner Dividend Model (1956) Dividend changes=Div1-Div0=s*(t*EPS1Div0) Div1 (Div0) is the dividend next year (this year). s is the speed of adjustment to the target. t is the target payout ratio. Example Suppose Orange Inc. currently pays a dividend of $2/share. Earnings are expected to be $5/share next year, and target payout ratio is 80%. Suppose the speed of adjustment, s is 0.5. What will the dividend next year be? What if s=0, s=1? Example Div0=$2, EPS1=$5/share, t=80%, s=0.5. So Div1-Div0 = s*(t*EPS1-Div0), Div1 = Div0 + s*(t*EPS1-Div0) = $2 + 0.5*(80%*$5-$2) = $3 If s=0, there’s no adjustment, so Div will stay at the original level, Div1 = Div0 = $2. If s=1, there’s full adjustment, Div1 = t*EPS1 = $4. 6. Stock Dividend Pay additional shares of stock instead of cash. Increases the number of shares outstanding and reduce the price per share. Small stock dividend Less than 20 to 25% If you own 100 shares and the company declares a 10% stock dividend, you would receive an additional 10 shares. Large stock dividend – more than 20 to 25% Stock Split Stock split – essentially the same as a stock dividend except it is expressed as a ratio For example, a 2 for 1 stock split is the same as a 100% stock dividend. Common explanation for split is to return price to a “more desirable trading range.” Readings Chapter 16
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