MARKETVIEW
Nordic Investment Q2 2016
A record strong H1 for the
Nordic Investment Market
68%
- 3%
41%
Figure 1: Nordics investment volume 2011– 2016 (€ mn)
Denmark
14 000
Finland
Norway
Sweden
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
0
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
While Britain voting to leave the European
N OR DI C T R AN S AC TION M AR KE T
Union in the June referendum was always a
distinct
possibility,
the
referendum
result
announced on June 24th took the commercial
real estate world by surprise. In reaction to the
Leave result, our research colleagues in the UK
and EMEA prepared a comprehensive report
entitled ‘The Long Goodbye?’ which explores
the consequences in detail. Needless to say,
anything that creates uncertainty is unwelcome
in the property market. However, it will be some
time before there is clarity on whether and how
the Nordic real estate market will be affected by
the Brexit decision.
CBRE will strive to monitor the situation and
keep our client base informed of developments
over the coming months.
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
© 2016, CBRE Ltd| 1
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
A STRONG QUARTER FOR THE REGION
Figure 2: Investment volume Europe and Nordics 2011 – 2016, (€ mn)
Rest of Europe
90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Nordics share
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Q2 2016
Q4 2015
Q2 2015
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q4 2013
Q2 2013
Q4 2012
Q2 2012
Q4 2011
0%
Q2 2011
A R E C OR D Q U A R TER F O R T H E O F F I C E S E C TOR
Nordics
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
2016 Q2 INVESTMENT VOLUME
PER SEGMENT (€ bn)
4.8
1.1
0.7
3.1
1.2
OFFICE
RETAIL
INDUSTRIAL /
LOGISTICS
RESIDENTIAL
OTHER
TREND (Y-t-Y)
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Figure 3: Nordic vs. Europe Total sector share of total, Q2 2016
Nordics
Europe Total
50%
A C O N TI NU ED S T R ONG I N T E RES T F R O M
F O R E I GN I N V E S TORS , B U T Q 2 V O L U ME D O W N
40%
30%
20%
10%
Other
Industrial /
logistics
Retail
Office
0%
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
© 2016 CBRE, Ltd |
2
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 4: Foreign share of the total investment volume
Q1 2016
100%
Q2 2016
80%
60%
40%
20%
LOW AND STABLE YIELDS ACROSS THE
R E G I ON
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
0%
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016.
Figure 5: Nordics Prime Yields, 2011 - 2016
Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
O U T L OOK
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Figure 6: Prime Yields and Rents per market and segment Q2 2016
Office
Q1 - 16
Retail –
High Street
Q1 - 16
Industrial/
Logistics
Q1 - 16
Copenhagen, DEN
4.10

3.40

6.25

Helsinki, FIN
4.20

4.00

6.00

Oslo, NOR
4.25

4.00

5.50

Stockholm, SWE
3.75

3.75

5.75

Nordics, average
4.08

3.79

5.88

Office
Q1 - 16
Retail High Street
Q1 - 16
Industrial/
Logistics
Q1 - 16
1,700

20,000

550

444

1,800

144

Oslo, NOR (NOK)
4,250

25,000

1,200

Stockholm, SWE (SEK)
5,500

20,000

925

Prime Yields
Prime Rents (Local currency)
Copenhagen, DEN (DKK)
Helsinki, FIN (Euro)
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
© 2016 CBRE, Ltd |
3
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
DE N M ARK, S U M M AR Y
•
Figure 7: Investment volume Denmark (€ mn)
Office
Retail
Industrial /Logistics
Residential
Other
2 500
2 000
1 500
•
1 000
500
0
•
•
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Figure 8: Prime Yields
Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
9%
8%
7%
6%
•
5%
4%
3%
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
•
Notable transactions
Source: Press release May 2016
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
Source: Press release June 2016
Source: Press release July 2016
© 2016 CBRE, Ltd |
4
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
FI N L AN D, S U M M ARY
•
Figure 9: Investment volume Finland (€ mn)
Office
Retail
Industrial /Logistics
Residential
Other
2 500
2 000
1 500
•
1 000
500
0
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
•
Figure 10: Prime Yields
Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
8%
7%
6%
•
5%
4%
3%
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Notable transactions
Source: Citycon press release April 29th 2016
Source: SATO press release April 21st 2016
Source: CapMan press release June 26th 2016
Q2
2016 CBRE Research
Q4 2015
Q1
© 2016 CBRE, Ltd |
5
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
N OR W AY , S U M M AR Y
•
Figure 11: Investment volume Norway (€ mn)
Office
Retail
Industrial /Logistics
Residential
Other
5 000
4 000
3 000
•
2 000
1 000
0
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Figure 12: Prime Yields
•
Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
8%
7%
6%
•
5%
4%
•
3%
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Notable transactions
Source: Masdison Int. Realty press release July 5th
2016
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
Source: NPRO press release June 1st 2016
Source: Balder Fastigheter press release May 2nd
2016
© 2016 CBRE, Ltd |
6
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
S W E DEN , S U M M AR Y
•
Figure 13: Investment volume Sweden (€ mn)
Office
Retail
Industrial /Logistics
Residential
Other
•
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
•
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Figure 14: Prime Yields
Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
8%
7%
•
6%
5%
4%
•
3%
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Notable transactions
Source: Willhem press release April 7th 2016
Source: Nordic Property News, June 3rd 2016
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
Source: Willhem press release April 13th 2016
© 2016 CBRE, Ltd |
7
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 15: Major investment deals during Q2 2016
Market
Property / Address
Type /
Sector
Denmark
Norreporten portfolio
Office
Denmark
Project Kingdom
Denmark
Size
(Sq m)
Price
(€ m)
Purchaser
Seller
116,000
440
Castellum
AP2 & AP6
Residential
68,000
194
PFA
Resolution Property
BIG shopping center
Retail
46,000
150
GIP/Portus Retail
NREP
Denmark
Carlsberg Fund Portfolio
Residential
70,000
147
PFA/JØP/DIP
Carlsberg Fund
Finland
Portfolio of 5 retail assets
Retail
46 800
74
eQ Finnish Real Estate
Citycon
Finland
St. George / Yrjönkatu 13
Hotel
10 200
N/A
Deka Immobilien
Capman Nordic Real Estate Fund
Finland
Portfolio of 356 apartments in
Helsinki Metropolitan Area
Residential
18 781
> 80
Bayerische Versorgungskammer
(BVK)
Tapiola KR IV fund
Finland
Portfolio of 1015 rental apartments
in Helsinki Metropolitan Area and
Turku
Residential
~56 840
N/A
SATO
Suomen Laatuasunnot Oy
Norway
Statoil regional HQ, Fornebu
Office
65,000
415
Arctic Syndicate
Madison Int. Realty
Norway
Verkstedveien 1&3, Drammensveien
134
Office
61,000
269
Entra ASA
NPRO ASA
Norway
Terningen Arena
Other
16,400
80
Balder Fastigheter AB
Pareto Syndicate
Norway
Six asset regional portfolio
Mixed
88,800
73
Kildare Partners
Storebrand Eiendomsfond
Sweden
Norrporten Portfolio
Office
1,049,914
2,339
Castellum
AP2 & AP6
Sweden
Portfolio
Residential
310,101
539
Wilhem
Akelius
Sweden
Garnisonen, Linköping &
Campus, Östersund
Mixed Use
132,601
323
Intea Fastigheter
Blackstone (80%) &
Areim Fond III (20%)
Sweden
Kåkenhuset 37 ”Kungshuset”
Office
16,581
163
KPA Pensionsförsäkring
GIC
T H E DE AL OF T H E QU AR T E R
S U M M ARY
Aurinkolahti, Vuosaari Helsinki
Q2 2016 CBRE Research
© 2016, CBRE Ltd |
8
M A R K E T V I E W NORDIC INVESTMENT
C O N TAC TS
CBRE OFFICES
CBRE Sweden
CBRE Norway
CBRE Finland
CBRE Denmark
For expert advice, please contact CBRE’s
in-country Heads of Capital Markets:
CBRE Sweden
CBRE Norway
CBRE Finland
CBRE Denmark
The Nordics
The Nordic countries consist of Denmark, Greenland, the
Faroe Islands, Finland, Åland, Iceland, Norway and
Sweden. The Faroe Islands and Greenland are both part
of the kingdom of Denmark. Åland is part of the republic
of Finland.
The focus of this report is on the four main countries in the
Region; Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and their
capitals; Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm.
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and
completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be
reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.