Outline
1. Background on risk
and decision research
2. Research methods,
findings, and issues
3. Example questions
Research Motivations
1. How do people make decisions under
conditions of risk and uncertainty?
•
•
•
What is important information to attend to?
What’s a worthwhile risk to take?
How do we trade off risks and benefits?
2. Do people in different settings vary
in their risk perceptions and decision
processes?
3. What is the role of psychological and
socio-cultural factors in risk perceptions
and decision processes?
Decision Making under Uncertainty:
Tricky Questions
Fatality
Risk
5 x 10-6
Why do people’s
perceptions differ?
Are communities’
reactions to risk
legitimate?
Why do differences
persist, despite
education?
Importance

Practical Importance
Articulate gaps between different stakeholder values
Facilitate risk debates and communications
Improve decision processes and outcomes

Theoretical Importance
Accurately describe underlying processes
Explain individual and group differences
Generalize across risk domains, contexts
Predict how DM, task, and context characteristics
influence risk perceptions and behavioral responses
Lay people overestimate rare events &
underestimate frequent events
5
Relationship between judged frequency & actual number of deaths/year (Lichtenstein et al., 1978)
UNKNOWN
DREADED
NOT DREADED
Dimensions
of Risk
Source: Slovic 1987
KNOWN
Attitudes Toward Regulation of Hazards
The larger
the point the
greater the
desire for
strict
regulation to
reduce risk
Cultural Differences in Risk Preferences

Chinese less risk averse than Americans
(Hsee & Weber, 1999; Weber & Hsee, 1998)

Cushion hypothesis
More help available in a socially collectivist society
so more risky gambles OK
Less risk aversion among Chinese only for
investment decisions
Risk preferences related to size and quality of
social networks
Risk Perceptions Reflect Deep-Seated Values

People with low risk perceptions are more likely:
to agree with statements reflecting hierarchical views
“When a risk is very small, it is OK for society to
impose that risk on individuals without their consent”
to disagree with egalitarian statements
“The world needs more equal distribution of wealth”
to disagree with community-based decision making
“People living near a nuclear power plant should be
able to vote and to close the plant if they think it is not being
run safely”
Policy Implications
Different worldviews matter because they
determine which approach to safety will be
supported
 Sheehy et al (1996):

Hierarchists prefer expert groups
Egalitarians prefer personal choice and endorse
labeling
All want to be involved in DM, but some more
willing to trust the judgment of others

Focusing only on socio-ecological variables
will not reveal socio-psychological
differentiation of those more or less
successful in responding to AI
Empirical Research on the Perceived Risk of HPAI



Most research done in Western countries
Focus on AI in humans (rather than poultry)
Studies in Asia show perceived risk correlated with:
 Gender (women perceive more risk)
 Age (older people perceive more risk)
 Efficacy (greater ability to protect related to lower perceived risk)
 Control (higher perceived personal control related to lower PR)
 Trust in public authorities

Protective behavior more likely with:
 Higher education
 Urban living
 Knowledge of HPAI
 Owning poultry
Perceptions of HPAI Risk in Poultry

Takeuchi (2006), Thailand (urban, suburban, rural)
 6% of rural ppts with backyard chickens aware of symptoms in poultry
 No testing for AI
 Reporting system not easily accessible
 Optimistic bias (aware of AI reports, but thought unlikely in their flocks)

Barennes et al. (2007), Laos (urban, semi-urban, rural)
 <50% had knowledge of symptoms in poultry
 50% believed their poultry not at risk for AI
 No-one notified authorities of poultry deaths

Ly et al. (2007), Cambodia (rural)
 62% experienced poultry deaths, 7% reported deaths to authorities
 Important to report deaths because due to AI (61%), get advice (39%)
 Non-reporting due to lack of knowledge of reporting procedure, not
being in habit, fears of problem selling, fears of culling
 Dead poultry buried (62%), prepared for food (53%), thrown away
(22%), used as feed (3%), sold/given away (2%)
Risk Perception Hypotheses
H0: Perceived risk not related to setting.
 H1a: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la
Kuznets: highest in transitional setting).
 H1b: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à
la risk society: highest in most modern setting)
because feelings of trust and control are
eroded.
 H2: A significant amount of setting-related RP
variance can be accounted for by socioecological and socio-psychological (efficacy,
affect, worldviews, etc) factors

Free Association
What thoughts or
images come to mind
when you hear the
phrase “avian influenza
in poultry?”
Please rate the valence
of each thought/image
on the scale below.
1
Very
Negative
1
Very
Negative
2
Negative
2
Negative
3
Neutral
3
Neutral
4
Positive
4
Positive
5
Very
Positive
5
Very
Positive
Need the right word here to
capture feelings about risk
Direct Report on Affective Responses to Risk

How worried/fearful are you about avian influenza infecting birds in
your commune?
Avoid optimistic
bias?




1
Not at all
worried
2
3
4
A little Moderately Very
worried
worried
worried
5
Extremely
worried
How worried are you about you or your family getting sick with avian
influenza?
How worried are you about you or your family being stigmatized by
an outbreak of avian influenza in your birds?
How worried are you about being unable to sell your birds because of
avian influenza?
How worried are you about income loss from culling your flock due to
an outbreak of avian influenza?
Direct Report on AI Risk
How serious are the impacts of avian
influenza in your commune?
 How vulnerable are birds in your
commune to avian influenza?

Direct Report on Relative Risk

Please rank these risks to Vietnamese
society from most to least risky.
_ Lacking enough food
_ Natural hazards (such as earthquakes,
floods, drought)
_ Avian influenza in poultry
_ Urbanization of the landscape
_ Financial security
Qualitative Characteristics





Please tell us how familiar you are with avian influenza in
birds in the sense that you feel you know something about it
or know someone who has experienced it.
1
2
Not at all
familiar
A little
familiar
3
4
Moderately Very
familiar
familiar
How dreaded is avian influenza in birds?
How much control do you think you have over avian influenza
in birds?
How much of a burden on a family is avian influenza in birds?
How fatal is avian influenza for birds?
Direct report of relative importance of
system elements

According to your
knowledge, give a
rank to the following
items in terms of their
importance in
contributing to an
outbreak of avian
influenza in poultry.
Rank:
Quality of feed
Size of flock
Farmer poultry
management
practices
Waste
management
practices
Government
policies
Direct report of disease causation
mental models

How important are each of the following as a cause of AI in birds?
Not at all
important
A little
important
Moderately
important
Very
important
Don’t
know
Chance
1
2
3
4
9
Contact with germs
1
2
3
4
9
Contact with blood
1
2
3
4
9
Genetic inheritance
1
2
3
4
9
Poor diet and/or too little
physical activity
1
2
3
4
9
Stress
1
2
3
4
9
Retribution
1
2
3
4
9
Government policies
1
2
3
4
9
Cultural practices (e.g., Tet Lunar
New Year celebrations)
1
2
3
4
9
Efficacy
How available is a vaccine for avian influenza in poultry?

1
2
4
Very
A little Moderately
available available available
Not at all
available

3
If a vaccine were available, how confident are you that
it is effective?
1
2
Not at all
confident

3
4
Very
A little Moderately
confident confident confident
If a vaccine were available, how confident are you that
you can secure and administer the vaccine?
1
Not at all
confident
2
3
4
Very
A little Moderately
confident confident confident
Protective behaviors (Y/N)
Participated in vaccination program?
 Reported sick birds?
 Culled sick birds?
 Restricting the use of poultry manure?
 Other…

Worldviews and Values
1.
2.
3.
4.
Strongly
disagree
Disagree
Agree
Strongly
agree
Don’t
know
In a good system, people who
try harder should be rewarded
financially
1
2
3
4
9
The government should strictly
limit people’s personal risktaking activities.
1
2
3
4
9
When a risk to an individual is
small but the benefits to society
are large, it is OK for authorities
to impose that risk on individuals
without their consent.
1
2
3
4
9
Life’s ups and downs are mostly
a matter of fate or divine will, not
personal control.
1
2
3
4
9
Support for Policies
To manage HPAI risk, a poultry certification
program has been proposed. This
program would aim to improve food
safety and animal health. It would include
sampling, testing, labeling, veterinary
inspections, fines, and ads.
What would you be willing to pay for this
program?
Paired
Comparisons:
Indirect
assessment of
the relative
importance of
information
Importance of Information
 How
important is each of the following as
a source of information when judging the
risk of avian influenza to poultry?
_
_
_
_
_
Media reports
Local health officials
Friends and family
Natural environment
Built environment
Knowledge
Avian influenza is transmitted
from bird to bird by saliva.
True/ False
Avian influenza in poultry can be
prevented by a vaccine.
True/ False
Other…
Background Demographics









Age
Gender
Education
Marital Status
Employment
Place you call home: rural or urban
How many people live with you?
Feeling about current income?
General health status (poor, fair, good, excellent)