2015>Q2
Applications Management Consulting Ltd.
Calgary and Area
Labour Market - 2015
Q2 REPORT
This Calgary and Area Labour Market Report provides
labour market and economic information for the
Calgary Region, Alberta and Canada for the second
quarter of 2015.
Table of Contents
Summary .................................................................................................1
Calgary Economy ..............................................................................................1
Alberta Economy ...............................................................................................3
Canadian Economy ...........................................................................................5
Global/U.S.Economy .........................................................................................6
Labour Force Statistics ......................................................................................7
Industry Employment .........................................................................................9
Employer Survey .............................................................................................10
The Economy ........................................................................................14
Calgary Region Economy................................................................................14
Economic Growth ...........................................................................................................14
Inflation ...........................................................................................................................16
Housing...........................................................................................................................17
Rental Market ..................................................................................................................18
Non-Residential Building Construction ...........................................................................20
Average Weekly Earnings ..............................................................................................21
Employment Insurance ...................................................................................................22
Office Market ..................................................................................................................23
Population .......................................................................................................................25
Alberta Economy .............................................................................................26
Economic Growth ...........................................................................................................26
Oil Prices ........................................................................................................................28
Major Construction Projects............................................................................................29
Crude Oil Production ......................................................................................................29
Active Drilling Rigs..........................................................................................................31
Rental Market ..................................................................................................................32
Retail Sales .....................................................................................................................33
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Bankruptcies ...................................................................................................................35
Population .......................................................................................................................36
Canadian Economy .........................................................................................38
Economic Growth ...........................................................................................................38
Consumer Spending .......................................................................................................42
Trade ..............................................................................................................................42
Housing...........................................................................................................................44
Global/U.S. Economy ......................................................................................45
Global Economic Growth ................................................................................................45
Advanced Economies.....................................................................................................46
Emerging Economies .....................................................................................................48
U.S. Economic Growth....................................................................................................50
Consumer Spending .......................................................................................................50
Investment ......................................................................................................................51
Labour Market ................................................................................................................52
Labour Market Review ..........................................................................55
Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) ......................................................55
Employment ....................................................................................................................55
Unemployment ...............................................................................................................57
Alberta .............................................................................................................58
Employment ....................................................................................................................58
Unemployment ...............................................................................................................62
Canada ............................................................................................................63
Employment ....................................................................................................................63
Unemployment ...............................................................................................................67
Job Vacancies ................................................................................................................67
Employer Survey ...................................................................................69
Survey Profile ..................................................................................................................69
Business Activity ............................................................................................................70
Employment: Past Layoffs, Vacant Positions and Future Employment ..........................73
Recruitment Resources ..................................................................................................77
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Recruiting Difficulties ......................................................................................................79
Employee Turnover .........................................................................................................84
Retention ........................................................................................................................88
Supplemental Questions - Focus on Employee Training and Development ..................91
Job Bank Analysis...............................................................................101
City of Calgary ...............................................................................................101
Communities Surrounding Calgary ...............................................................102
Banff/Canmore Area ......................................................................................102
Appendix A: Survey Methodology .....................................................106
Appendix B: Employer Survey Occupation Results............................107
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
1
Q2-2015
CALGARY ECONOMY
SUMMARY
Summary
As expected, the ongoing weakness in the energy sector through the
second quarter of 2015 resulted in the Conference Board of Canada
revising its forecast for the Calgary CMA to reflect a contraction in 2015.
Calgary Economy
ECONOMIC GROWTH
INFLATION
HOUSING STARTS
Calgary’s economy is now
projected to shrink by 1.2% in
2015, in line with the City of
Calgary’s most recent forecast
of a 1.0% contraction in 2015.
This rate of growth would
place Calgary in last place
among the 13 major CMAs in
Canada. The Edmonton CMA is
also projected to contract by
0.8% this year. Economic
growth is expected to resume
in 2016, although at a modest
rate of 1.5%.
Consumer prices in Calgary
rose 1.7% per cent in the
twelve months to June 2015,
following a 0.4% increase in
May 2015. Alberta’s inflation
rate was also 1.7% in June
2015, up from 0.6% the
previous month. At the national
level, the annual increase in
the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
was 1.0% in June 2015—up
slightly from 0.9% in May
2015. Inflation in Calgary is
projected to average 1.1% in
2015 and 2.2% in 2016.
Housing starts in the Calgary
CMA totaled 3,451 units in the
second quarter of 2015, down
31% from 5,029 units in the
second quarter of 2014.
Single-family starts in Calgary
dropped 48% year-over-year to
972 units, while multi-family
starts declined 22% to 2,479
units. Total annual housing
starts in the Calgary CMA are
forecast to decline 23% in
2015 to 13,200 units and
decline 13% to 11,500 units in
2016.
Calgary GDP Growth
2014
2015F
Calgary Annual Inflation Rates
4.4%
3.0%
2015F
-1.2%
2016F
0%
2%
4%
1.1%
2016F
1.5%
-4% -2%
2014
6%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
1%
2014
17,131
2015F
2.2%
0%
Calgary Housing Starts
3%
13,200
2016F
4%
11,500
-0
6,000
12,000 18,000
2
Q2-2015
CALGARY ECONOMY
SUMMARY
In June 2015, 32% of the Employment Insurance (EI) recipients in the
province were in Calgary. Approximately 16,480 Calgarians were receiving
regular EI benefits, up 9.2% from May 2015 and up 65% compared to a
year earlier.
WEEKLY EARNINGS
EMPL. INSURANCE
OFFICE MARKET
The average weekly earnings
(AWE) of payroll employees in
Calgary declined to $1,122 in
May 2015 from $1,125 in April
2014, the third straight month
of falling earnings. Year-overyear, average weekly earnings
rose by $35 or 3.2% in May
2015. In Alberta, average
weekly earnings rose by just
$2 to $1,153 or 0.2% yearover-year, the lowest growth
rate in about 20 years. Still,
on average, Albertans earned
$205 more per week in May
2015 than the average
Canadian.
There were 52,160 Albertans
receiving regular Employment
Insurance (EI) benefits in June
2015, a 74% increase
compared to the previous year.
June 2015 was the eighth
consecutive month that the
number of EI beneficiaries
increased in the province and
was at its highest level in
almost five years. In June
2015, 32% of the EI recipients
in the province were in
Calgary. Approximately 16,480
Calgarians were receiving
regular EI benefits, up 65%
compared to a year earlier.
Overall, Calgary’s office
vacancy rate increased to
11.5% in the second quarter
of 2015, from 10.2% the
previous quarter and 8.3% in
the second quarter of 2014.
The vacancy rate in Calgary’s
downtown office market jumped
to 10.7%, from 6.2% in the
second quarter of 2014, while
vacancy in the beltline rose
over 4.0 percentage points
year-over-year to 14.5% in the
second quarter of 2015.
Colliers projects the vacancy
rate in downtown Calgary to
climb as high as 17.5% by
year-end 2018.
Average Weekly Earnings May 2015
Calgary
$1,122
Alberta
$1,153
Canada
$948
$0
Calgary EI Beneficiaries
June 2015
16,480
May 2015
15,090
June 2014
$300 $600 $900$1,200
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
9,970
0
6,000 12,00018,000
Calgary Overall Office Vacancy Rates
Q2 2015
11.5%
Q1 2015
10.2%
Q2 2014
8.3%
0%
4%
8%
12%
3
Q2-2015
ALBERTA ECONOMY
SUMMARY
Low oil prices continued to weigh on the Alberta economy in the second
quarter of 2015, with energy companies continuing to cut back on their
capital spending and payrolls.
Alberta Economy
ECONOMIC GROWTH
OIL PRICES
RENTAL MARKET
While oil prices improved
modestly over the quarter,
economic growth in Alberta in
the second half of the year is
projected to remain weak. The
Alberta economy is forecast to
contract by 0.7% in 2015,
driven mainly by the
construction sector. A gradual
improvement is projected for
the oil sector next year, and
the Alberta economy is
forecast to grow by a modest
1.1% in 2016.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
crude prices, the North
American benchmark for high
quality oil, improved over the
second quarter of 2015,
averaging US$57.94 per barrel.
This was up from an average
of US$48.64 per barrel the
previous quarter, but down
44% from an average of US
$103 per barrel in Q2 2014.
The outlook for oil prices, as
outlined by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration, is
for WTI to average US$49.62
per barrel in 2015 and US
$54.42 per barrel in 2016.
Alberta’s apartment vacancy
rate rose to 3.4% in April
2015, from 1.8% the previous
year. Among the province’s
largest urban centres, Red
Deer and Edmonton had the
lowest apartment vacancy rate
in April 2015 at 2.4%. Wood
Buffalo’s apartment vacancy
rate leaped to 22.3%, from
7.0% a year earlier. The
average rental price for a twobedroom apartment in Alberta
increased to $1,249 per month
in April 2015, from $1,190 the
previous year.
Alberta GDP Growth
2014
WTI Prices, Quarterly Avg. (US$/bbl)
4.4%
Q2 15
-2%
0%
2%
$97
Q2 14
4%
6%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Lethbridge
$74
Q3 14
1.1%
3.4%
Wood Buffalo
$49
Q4 14
2016F
AB
$58
Q1 15
2015F -0.7%
Apartment Vacancy Rates, Apr. 2015
$103
$0
$35
$70
$105
22.3%
6.2%
Calgary
3.2%
Medicine Hat
2.8%
Grande Prairie
2.6%
Red Deer
2.4%
Edmonton
2.4%
0% 6% 12% 18% 24%
4
Q2-2015
ALBERTA ECONOMY
SUMMARY
“Alberta’s low levels of consumer bankruptcy per capita can be partially
attributed to low interest rates. And despite the current economic
downturn, most Albertans in the labour force (94.2%) are still working and
earning the highest wages in the country.” - ATB Financial
RETAIL SALES
BANKRUPTCIES
POPULATION
Retail sales in Alberta totaled
$6.36 billion in June 2015, an
increase of 0.4% compared to
the previous month. This was
the second consecutive month
that retail sales rose in the
province, after increasing by
0.4% to $6.34 billion in May
2015. Year-over-year, however,
total sales were down 3.7% in
June 2015. Retail sales in
Alberta are forecast to decline
by 2.5% in 2015 to $76.7
billion, as lower oil prices
weigh on incomes and dampen
consumer spending.
Approximately 1,100 Albertans
filed for personal bankruptcy in
Q2 2015, up 10.2% from 997
bankruptcies the previous
quarter and up 3.2% from
1,065 year-over-year. In April
2015, Alberta had the lowest
personal bankruptcies on a per
capita basis at 9 per 100,000.
In Atlantic Canada, rates
ranged from about 28 to 40
personal bankruptcies per
100,000. Thirty-four businesses
filed for bankruptcy in Alberta
in Q2 2015, up 70% from the
previous quarter and up 36%
year-over-year.
Alberta’s population grew by
15,365 in Q1 2015, to an
estimated 4,175,400 as of April
1. This was the 17th
consecutive quarter that the
province recorded the highest
quarterly population growth
rate in the country (+0.37%),
ahead of Manitoba (+0.18%)
and Saskatchewan and British
Columbia (+0.16%). Alberta
posted the highest annual
population growth rate among
provinces in Q1 2015 at
2.17%.
Alberta Retail Sales Growth
Alberta Personal Bankruptcies
2014
7.6%
Q2 15
1,099
Q1 15
2015F-2.5%
2016F
2.0%
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
997
Q4 14
893
Q3 14
898
Q2 14
8%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
1,065
0
300
600
900
1,200
Annual Population Growth Rates Q1 2015
NL
PE
NS
NB
QC
ON
MB
SK
AB
BC
-0.25%
0.35%
0.08%
-0.01%
0.67%
0.81%
1.22%
1.27%
2.17%
1.09%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
5
Q2-2015
CANADIAN ECONOMY
SUMMARY
Early estimates suggested that the Canadian economy had recorded two
consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during the first half of 2015,
satisfying the technical definition for recession. However, most major
sectors of the economy remain stable, and possess a positive outlook.
Canadian Economy
ECONOMIC GROWTH
CONSUMERS
TRADE
The economy was hit hard by
the dual impact of low oil
prices and soft global demand
during the first half of 2015.
Weakness in the energy and
manufacturing sectors along
with lower investment spending
across most industries led to
back-to-back quarters of
negative GDP growth, meeting
the technical definition for
recession. However, a broadbased decline has yet to be
observed, as labour, housing,
and financial markets
continued to improve. Positive
GDP growth is expected to
resume over the second half
of 2015 and into 2016.
Despite a lull over the winter
months, consumers have
continued to provide significant
support to growth in 2015.
Amid a run of sour economic
news, retail spending exceeded
expectations late in the second
quarter; auto sales have shown
no sign of slowing down and
should approach last year’s
record setting levels; and
households continue to
accumulate more credit mostly through mortgage loans.
With steady job growth and
low financing costs, the
outlook for further spending
growth in 2015 is positive.
It was anticipated that
Canada’s non-energy export
sector would provide a muchneeded boost to growth due
to the depreciated dollar and
recovering U.S. economy.
Owing to weak demand,
exports suffered through most
of the first half of 2015 until
posting an outsized gain in
June. Forecasters are optimistic
that June’s performance is the
start of a growth trend, with
high-potential industries such
as aerospace, chemicals and
forestry picking up the slack
for an ailing energy sector.
Quarterly Real GDP Growth
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
-0.8%
Q2 2015
Q3 2015F
2.0%
-1%
0.5%
0%
1%
2.3%
Q3 2015F
2%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
2.0%
0%
1%
Quarterly Export Growth
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
-0.5%
-2%
Quarterly Consumer Spending Growth
2%
Q2 2015
Q3 2015F
3%
-1.4%
0.4%
4.8%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
6
Q2-2015
GLOBAL/U.S. ECONOMY
SUMMARY
The global economy underperformed expectations during the first half of
2015, mostly owing to an economic recovery that has been slow to
materialize in the U.S. economy along with a potential downturn in China.
Global/U.S.Economy
GLOBAL GROWTH
EURO AREA
U.S.
Global real GDP growth is
expected to decelerate to
between 2.8 and 3.2% in 2015,
from 3.4% in 2014. As growth
transitions away from emerging
nations, weak levels of global
demand have delayed the
forecasted recovery in
advanced economies.
Continued low oil prices are
estimated to be a net benefit
for the global economy, but
significantly dampen the
outlook for net exporters of oil.
Confidence was also damaged
by slowing growth and financial
market turmoil in China.
Growth in the Euro Area has
been supported by a
depreciated euro, cheap oil
prices, record-low borrowing
costs, and improved credit
conditions. While performances
across countries remain
divergent and generally reliant
on strong support from
monetary policy, growth is
increasingly being observed in
economies that had struggled
to sustain a recovery, including
Spain, Portugal and Italy.
Further, the aggregate
unemployment rate in the
region has declined by nearly
1 percentage point since
mid-2014.
Despite relatively strong job
growth so far in 2015, the
pace of the U.S. economic
recovery has underperformed
forecasts made earlier in the
year. Similar to the case in
Canada, investment has
suffered in the high-growth oil
and gas industry as well as in
support sectors. Further,
consumers have been reluctant
to spend the windfall they
received from lower gasoline
prices. Conditions are expected
to improve in 2016, but
impending Federal Reserve rate
hikes add an element of
uncertainty to the outlook.
Euro Area Real GDP Growth
Global Real GDP Growth
2014
3.4%
2015F
3.0%
2016F
3.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2014
0.9%
2015F
4%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
2014
1.6%
2016F
1.9%
0%
1%
U.S. Real GDP Growth
2%
2.4%
2015F
2.2%
2016F
3.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
7
Q2-2015
LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS
SUMMARY
Calgary had higher participation and employment rates than Alberta and
Canada. Alberta had the third lowest unemployment rate in Canada in the
second quarter of 2015.
CALGARY
ALBERTA
CANADA
Calgary’s unemployment rate
averaged 5.6% in the second
quarter of 2015, up from 5.0%
the previous quarter and 5.4%
year-over-year.
Alberta’s unemployment rate
averaged 5.6% in the second
quarter of 2015, up from 5.1%
the previous quarter and 4.9%
year-over-year.
Canada’s unemployment rate
averaged 6.8% in the second
quarter of 2015, up from 6.7%
the previous quarter but down
from 7.0% year over year.
Calgary’s unemployment rate is
forecast to average 6.0% in
2015 and 6.2% in 2016.
On average, there were
138,200 unemployed people in
Alberta in the second quarter
of 2015, up 14,300 from
123,900 unemployed in the
previous quarter.
Saskatchewan had the lowest
unemployment rate among
provinces in the second
quarter of 2015 at 4.6%,
followed by Manitoba (5.5%)
and Alberta (5.6%).
The number of long term
unemployed persons in Alberta
(unemployed 27+ weeks)
declined to 16,100 in June
2015, from 16,700 in June
2014. They accounted for 12%
of the total unemployed in the
province.
RBC Economics is forecasting
Canada’s unemployment rate
to drop to 6.6% in 2015 and
6.3% in 2016.
Calgary’s labour force
participation rate increased to
74.5% in the second quarter
of 2015, from 73.8% the
previous quarter and 73.5%
year-over-year.
Labour Force Survey Stats Q2
Calgary
Labour Force Statistics
Alberta
Canada
✓ Participation Rate
74.5%
73.1%
65.8%
✓ Employment Rate
70.4%
69.0%
61.3%
5.6%
5.6%
6.8%
✓ Unemployment Rate
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
8
Q2-2015
LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS
SUMMARY
CALGARY
ALBERTA
CANADA
Part-time employment in
Calgary increased by 9,600 or
7.2% year-over-year in the
second quarter of 2015, while
full-time employment rose by
23,000 or 3.5%.
The number of part-time
workers in Alberta increased by
13,900 or 3.7% year-over-year
in the second quarter of 2015.
Full-time employment in
Canada increased by 210,800
or 1.5% year-over-year in the
second quarter of 2015.
Employment for men increased
by 23,000 or 1.8% year-overyear in the second quarter of
2015, while employment for
women increased by 15,200 or
1.5%.
Employment for men increased
by 128,700 or 1.4% year-overyear in the second quarter of
2015, while employment for
women rose by 40,500 or
0.5%.
Employment for youth aged
15 - 24 rose by 14,200 or
4.5% year-over-year in the
second quarter of 2015.
Employment for Canadians
aged 55+ years increased by
70,400 or 2.0% year-over-year
in the second quarter of 2015.
Year-over-year, employment
growth for men (+4.3%)
outpaced employment growth
for women (3.9%) in the
second quarter of 2015.
Table 282-0128 Labour force survey
estimates
Annual Employment Growth for Youth (aged 15 - 24), Canada and Provinces, Q2 2015
NL
9.0%
AB
4.5%
NS
2.5%
Canada
0.4%
QC
0.1%
ON
0%
SK
-0.3%
BC
-1.2%
NB
-1.5%
MN
PE
-9.0%
-2.1%
-7.1%
-6.0%
-3.0%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
9
Q2-2015
SUMMARY
Industry Employment
These are the industries that posted the greatest annual change in
employment in Calgary, Alberta and Canada in Q2 2015.
Calgary Highlights
Health Care and
Social Assistance
Transportation and
Warehousing
Forestry, Fishing,
Mining, Oil and Gas
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate, Leasing
+16,300 jobs
+16,100 jobs
-6,500 jobs
-5,400 jobs
Health Care and
Social Assistance
Transportation and
Warehousing
Forestry, Fishing,
Mining, Oil and Gas
Prof., Scientific and
Technical Services
+27,900 jobs
+19,100 jobs
-18,500 jobs
-14,400 jobs
Health Care and
Social Assistance
Educational
Services
Other Services
Information, Culture
and Recreation
+70,400 jobs
+56,000 jobs
-45,400 jobs
-22,200 jobs
Alberta Highlights
Canada Highlights
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
10
Q2-2015
Employer Survey
EMPLOYER SURVEY
SUMMARY
Survey Results: 200 medium-sized employers with 50 - 99 employees were
surveyed in Q2 2015.
PAST GROWTH
FUTURE GROWTH
LAYOFFS
On balance, 1% of employers
reported that their company
expanded in the 12 months
prior to their survey, down
from 21% in Q2 2014.
On balance, only 5% of
employers anticipate a
business expansion in the 12
months following their survey,
down significantly from 29% in
Q2 2014.
Twenty-eight per cent of
employers reported that their
companies laid off workers in
the three months prior to their
survey, up from 17% in Q2
2014.
Employers surveyed in Q2
2015 reported a substantially
lower rate of anticipated
business expansion than in all
previous years. The marked
change could indicate that
companies in the Calgary
region continue to be less
optimistic because of current
economic conditions.
Employers surveyed in Q2
2015 reported a higher rate of
layoffs than in all previous
years except 2009.
Employers surveyed in Q2
2015 reported the lowest rate
of company expansion in the
last five years.
While company expansion has
slowed substantially in the
Calgary region in Q2 2015,
companies still reported
business growth on balance. In
contrast, during the 2009-10
economic downturn, companies
reported overall downsizing.
Q2 Company Expansion
Nearly two-thirds of employers
in the mining and oil and gas
industry and half of employers
in the construction industry
reported laying off employees
in the three months prior to
their survey. This may
represent the affect that lower
oil prices have had on
employment in the Calgary
region.
Q2 Anticipated Company Expansion
Q2 Layoffs
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2009
0%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
10%
20%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
11
Q2-2015
EMPLOYER SURVEY
SUMMARY
The most frequently
reported vacant
positions were truck
drivers, nurse aides,
orderlies and patient
service associates,
light duty cleaners
and financial
auditors and
accountants.
The positions
employers reported
the most difficulty
recruiting were truck
drivers, sales
representatives wholesale trade
(non-technical),
financial auditors
and accountants
and food and
beverage servers.
The positions
employers reported
had the highest
voluntary turnover
were truck drivers,
community and
social service
workers, food and
beverage servers
and construction
trades helpers and
labourers.
Seventy-nine per
cent of employers
reported
approximately 1,173
employees left as a
result of voluntary
turnover in the 12
months prior to
their survey. Overall,
the voluntary
turnover rate was
8.3%.
PAST
RECRUITMENT
FUTURE
RECRUITMENT
PAST
TURNOVER
FUTURE
TURNOVER
Employers were asked
if they had difficulty
recruiting qualified
employees in the 12
months prior to their
survey. Forty-six per
cent of employers
reported difficulty
recruiting, down from
50% in Q2 2014.
Employers were asked
if they anticipated
having more, less or
the same difficulty
recruiting qualified
employees in the 12
months following their
survey. On balance,
17% anticipated less
difficulty recruiting, the
lowest since at least
2010.
Employers were asked
if they had any
voluntary turnover in
the 12 months prior
to their survey.
Seventy-nine per cent
of employers reported
voluntary turnover,
down from 83% in Q2
2014.
Employers were asked
if they anticipated
voluntary turnover
would be higher, lower
or the same in the 12
months following their
survey. On balance,
16% anticipated lower
voluntary turnover, the
lowest since at least
2010.
Q2 Past Difficulty
Q2 Future Difficulty
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0%
20% 40% 60%
Q2 Past Turnover
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-20%
0%
20% 40%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Q2 Future Turnover
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0%
50%
100%
-20%
-10%
0%
12
Q2-2015
EMPLOYER SURVEY
SUMMARY
✓ Employers reported career and classified websites was the most successful recruitment resource for
attracting workers in the 12 months prior to their survey.
Career and classified websites
Word of mouth/employee referrals
Company website/internal postings
Employment agencies
Social media
Newspapers
Industry associations
Walk-ins/unsolicited resumes
Other
Colleges/universities
Signage
Technical/trade institutes
Magazines
Alberta Works/employment resource
Unsure
36%
27%
10%
6%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
✓ Employers reported providing a competitive salary was the most successful employee retention
strategy in the 12 months prior to their survey.
Competitive salary
Competitive benefits
Positive work environment
Company culture
Excellent management/supervision
Learning/growth opportunities
Job security/full time hours
Employee engagement
Perks
Interesting/challenging work
Flexible work measures
Cash bonuses
Other
Rewards and recognition programs
Onboarding/recruitment process
Excellent communication
Work/life balance
Employee referral program
Nothing
Unsure
20%
14%
10%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
4%
8%
13
Q2-2015
EMPLOYER SURVEY
SUMMARY
“Employee training and development is a top priority for our company.”
Strongly Agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
41%
Seventy per cent of employers strongly agreed or agreed that employee
training and development is a top priority in their company. Only 8 per cent of
employers disagreed or strongly disagreed.
Eighty-five per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and
entertainment and 80 per cent of the wholesale and retail trade and
manufacturing employers agreed that employee training and development is a
top priority in their company. Only 50 per cent of the construction employers
agreed.
29%
2%
6%
22%
Employers reported that the biggest challenge faced by
their companies in terms of training employees was “Time
constraints - too busy.”
Time constraints - too busy
Managing employees’ diverse learning needs - knowing what training is relevant and available
Too costly/not in budget
Turnover - employees leave once trained
Employees aren’t interested in training - they are fully trained
Finding employees to train
The locations where employees work are not near the training
English is a second language for many of our employees - language barrier
The length of training that is required
The labour force is uneducated/unskilled
Employees don’t need training - they are fully trained
The seasonal nature of the industry
Lack of internal trainers to administer the training
Consistency of training
Other
Communicating effectively with staff about their training needs
Unsure
None
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
26%
14%
12%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
5%
9%
14
THE ECONOMY
The Calgary region economy is affected by global and U.S. economic activity and
by economic drivers in the Canadian economy and elsewhere in Alberta.
The Economy
Calgary Region Economy
This section includes a discussion of: Economic Growth, Inflation, Housing, Rental Market, NonResidential Building Construction, Average Weekly Earnings, Employment Insurance, Office Market
and Population.
Economic Growth
As expected, the ongoing weakness in the energy sector through the second quarter of 2015 resulted in
the Conference Board of Canada revising its forecast for the Calgary CMA to reflect a contraction in
2015.1 Calgary’s economy is now projected to shrink by 1.2 per cent in 2015, in line with the City of
Calgary’s most recent forecast of a 1.0 per cent contraction in 2015. 2
Calgary CMA Real GDP Growth by Industry
2015 Forecast (annual growth rate)3
2015F%(completed:%Mar%30,%2015)%
2015F%(completed%Aug%29,%2014)%
+1.2%%
All%industries%
1.5%%
1.6%%
Personal%services%
+1.2%%
Wholesale%&%retail%trade%
2.8%%
2.4%%
Non+commercial%services%
2.0%%
2.2%%
Office%
2.0%%
2.1%%
Transporta;on%&%warehousing%
+3.1%%
Industrial% +3.8%%
1.5%%
0.7%%
+5.0%%+4.0%%+3.0%%+2.0%%+1.0%%0.0%%1.0%%2.0%%3.0%%4.0%%
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1, Winter 2014 and Spring 2015.
1
Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1, Spring 2015.
2
City of Calgary, Calgary and Region Economic Outlook, 2015 - 2020, Spring 2015.
3
The office sector includes the information and cultural, finance, insurance and real estate, business services and public
administration industries. The industrial sector includes the manufacturing, construction and primary and utilities industries.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
15
THE ECONOMY
This rate of growth would place Calgary in last place among the 13 major CMAs in Canada. The
Edmonton CMA is also projected to contract by 0.8 per cent this year.4
With the assumption that WTI oil will average $56 US/barrel in 2015,
the Conference Board of Canada is forecasting output in Calgary’s
primary and utilities sector to contract by 2.3 per cent this year, and
employment in the sector to decline 8.1 per cent. Construction output is
forecast to contract 11.2 per cent in 2015 as businesses pull back on
investment, net migration slows and housing starts drop. Growth in
manufacturing output is projected to slow to just 1.0 per cent in 2015,
from 3.4 per cent the previous year.
Real GDP Growth Forecast
2015 (per cent)
“The decline in primary and utilities output will hurt activity in the
local manufacturing sector, particularly for companies that manufacture
products for the oil and gas extraction sector. Fortunately, the sector
should avoid an outright decline thanks to a strengthening U.S.
economy, a weak Canadian dollar, and reduced shipping costs.” 5
Weak oil prices are also expected to limit growth in several of Calgary’s services industries in 2015,
including transportation and warehousing (-3.1 per cent) and wholesale and retail trade (-1.2 per cent).
More modest growth of 2.0 per cent is forecast for Calgary’s non-commercial services and office
sectors, while growth in the personal services sector is projected to ease to 1.6 per cent this year. 6
Approximately 75 per cent of the of the downsizing in Alberta in the first half of the year was related to
the energy sector, while the remaining layoffs were mainly in financial services, retail and food
services. As of July 2015, the Alberta government has received over 70 notices affecting about 11,400
workers. Companies intending to layoff 50 or more employees are required to notify the province.7
“I was hopeful by the fall we would have been done (with layoffs) but I don’t think we are,”
said Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial. “I think we still have more layoffs to
come in the second half of the year and that might come after Labour Day only because these
oil prices have continued to be volatile to the downside and I think there’s still a lot of
companies under a lot of cost-cutting pressures.” 8
4
Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1, Spring 2015.
5
Ibid, p.4.
6
Ibid.
7
Calgary Herald, Group layoffs soar in Alberta, Mario Toneguzzi, July 31, 2015.
8
Ibid.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
16
THE ECONOMY
Inflation
Consumer prices in Calgary rose 1.7 per cent in the twelve months to June 2015, following a 0.4 per
cent increase in May 2015. Six of the eight
major components that make up the Consumer
Consumer)Price)Index,)Calgary,)June)2015)
12#Month)Change)in)the)Major)Components)
Price Index (CPI) increased in June, led by a
5.7 per cent rise in the cost of alcoholic
All!items%Consumer%Price%Index%
1.7%%
Alcoholic%beverages%and%tobacco%
5.7%%
beverages and tobacco and a 3.8 per cent hike
Food%
3.8%%
in the price of food. Calgarians also paid 2.1
Household%ops.,%furnishings%&%equip.%
3.2%%
Shelter%
2.1%%
per cent more for shelter in June, as natural gas
Recrea6on,%educa6on%and%reading%
1.6%%
prices rose 6.7 per cent year-over-year.
Health%and%personal%care%
1.2%%
Clothing%and%footwear%
Transporta6on%
Clothing and footwear costs declined slightly
by 0.3 per cent in the 12 months to June, while
transportation costs were down 1.1 per cent,
mainly the result of a 14.3 per cent decline in
gasoline prices.9
!0.3%%
!1.1%%
!4.0%% !2.0%% 0.0%% 2.0%% 4.0%% 6.0%% 8.0%%
12#month)per)cent)change)
Alberta’s inflation rate was also 1.7 per cent in June 2015, up from 0.6 per cent the previous month. At
the national level, the annual increase in the CPI was 1.0 per cent in June 2015—up slightly from 0.9
per cent in May 2015.
All-Items Consumer Price Index, Canada, Alberta and Calgary
Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change, January 2012 - June 2015
Canada&
Alberta&
Calgary&
5.0%&
4.0%&
3.0%&
2.0%&
1.0%&
!1.0%&
Jan!12&
Mar!12&
May!12&
Jul!12&
Sep!12&
Nov!12&
Jan!13&
Mar!13&
May!13&
Jul!13&
Sep!13&
Nov!13&
Jan!14&
Mar!14&
May!14&
Jul!14&
Sep!14&
Nov!14&
Jan!15&
Mar!15&
May!15&
0.0%&
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 326-0020.
9
Statistics Canada CANSIM table 326-0020 and City of Calgary, June 2015 Inflation Review, July 17, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
THE ECONOMY
17
Housing
Housing starts in the Calgary CMA totaled 3,451 units in the second quarter of 2015, down 31 per cent
from 5,029 units in the second quarter of 2014. Single-family starts in Calgary dropped 48 per cent
year-over-year to 972 units, while multi-family starts declined 22 per cent to 2,479 units.10
“Demand for new housing has softened as low oil prices impact investments, employment,
and consumer sentiments. As a result, many buyers have been more cautious in proceeding
with their purchasing decisions.” 11
Housing starts in the Edmonton CMA eased in the second quarter of 2015, following a strong first
quarter showing. Builders in Edmonton started work on 3,836 housing units during the second quarter
of this year, down 3.5 per cent compared to the second quarter of 2014. Multi-family starts were down
4.6 per cent year-over-year to 2,238 units, while single-family starts declined 1.8 per cent to 1,598
units.12
Housing Starts, Alberta, Calgary and Edmonton, Q2 2014 and Q2 2015
Single
Multiple
Total
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
% Change
2014-2015
Alberta
4,443
3,345
5,964
5,137
10,407
8,482
-18.5%
Calgary CMA
1,863
972
3,166
2,479
5,029
3,451
-31.4%
Edmonton CMA
1,628
1,598
2,347
2,238
3,975
3,836
-3.5%
Area
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing starts in Alberta are projected to decline over the next two years. After reaching 40,590 units
in 2014, total starts are forecast to fall 14 per cent in 2015 to 35,000 units and a further 9.1 per cent in
2016 to 31,800 units. Total annual housing starts in the Calgary CMA are forecast to decline 23 per
cent in 2015 to 13,200 units, while in Edmonton, starts are projected to fall only slightly by 0.5 per cent
to 13,800 units. In 2016, 11,500 housing starts are projected for both Calgary and Edmonton, a 13 per
cent year-over-year decline for Calgary and a 17 per cent decline for Edmonton.13
In the resale housing market, second quarter results pointed towards more stability in the market.14
Residential sales in the Calgary CMA declined 26 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of
2015, following a 33 per cent year-over-year decrease in the first quarter of 2015. Year-to-date June
10
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Prairie Region, Third Quarter 2015, p.18.
11
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Calgary, July 2015, p.2.
12
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Prairie Region, Third Quarter 2015, p.18.
13
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook Prairie Region Highlights, Second Quarter 2015.
14
Calgary Real Estate Board, Calgary Regional Housing Market Statistics, June 2015, July 2, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
18
THE ECONOMY
2015, residential sales in the Calgary CMA totaled 12,890, down 29 per cent from 18,084 sales in the
first half of 2014.15
The average price for an existing home in the Calgary CMA remained relatively stable in the second
quarter of 2015, declining by just 0.2 per cent to $462,666. Year-to-date June 2015, the average price
for an existing home was $457,266, down 0.8 per cent compared to the first half of 2014.16
After reaching a record high of 33,615 in 2014, existing home sales in Calgary are expected to fall 27
per cent to 24,700 in 2015. In 2016, sales are expected to rebound slightly by 0.8 per cent and total
24,900. The average price for an existing home in Calgary is forecast to decline by 2.7 per cent in 2015
to $448,000. In 2016, the average price is projected to increase 1.1 per cent to $453,000 as market
conditions firm.17
Rental Market
Canada’s apartment vacancy rate remained relatively stable in April 2015, rising only slightly to 2.9 per
cent, from 2.7 per cent in April 2014.
Among the major metropolitan areas in Canada, Victoria had the lowest apartment vacancy rate in
April 2015 at 1.2 per cent, while St. John had the highest rate at 8.4 per cent. The Calgary CMA’s
apartment vacancy rate rose sharply to 3.2 per cent in 2015, from 1.4 per cent in 2014.
“The stability of the national vacancy rate is due to offsetting regional trends that largely
reflect the negative impact of lower oil prices on rental demand in oil-producing provinces.
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, in particular, saw vacancy
rates rise since the April 2014 rental market survey. Vacancy rates also increased in the
Québec CMA, reflecting decreases in net migration, weak employment growth and an
increased stock of new rental units. On the other hand, vacancy rates decreased in most of the
major centres of Ontario and British Columbia, reflecting stronger economic conditions and
higher house prices.” 18
15
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Calgary CMA, July 2015, p.28.
16
Ibid.
17
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook Calgary CMA, Spring 2015.
18
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Canada Highlights, Spring 2015, p.1.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
19
THE ECONOMY
Private Apartment Vacancy Rates in Selected CMAs and Canada
April 2014 and 2015
Victoria%
Vancouver%
Toronto%
Winnipeg%
Edmonton%
OHawa%
Canada%
Calgary%%
Quebec%
Montreal%
St.%John's%
Halifax%
Saskatoon%
Regina%
St.%John%
0.0%%
1.2%%
1.4%%
1.8%%
2.3%%
2.4%%
2.8%%
2.9%%
3.2%%
3.2%%
3.3%%
3.4%%
4.2%%
4.6%%
4.8%%
2.0%%
4.0%%
6.0%%
2014%
2015%
8.4%%
8.0%%
10.0%%
Vacancy&Rate&
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Canada Highlights, Spring 2015.
Nationally, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment was $949 per month in April 2015, up from
$930 per month in 2014. The Vancouver CMA had the highest average rent for a two-bedroom unit in
2015 at $1,345 per month, while St. John had the lowest average rent at $717 per month. The average
rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Calgary CMA rose to $1,319 per cent in April 2015, from
$1,267 a year earlier.
Private Apartment Average Rents in Selected CMAs and Canada
April 2014 and 2015
Vancouver!
Calgary!!
Toronto!
Edmonton!
ONawa!
Saskatoon!
Victoria!
Regina!
Halifax!
Winnipeg!
Canada!
St.!John's!
Quebec!
Montreal!
St.!John!
!$1,345!!
!$1,319!!
!$1,269!!
!$1,250!!
!$1,159!!
!$1,112!!
!$1,105!!
!$1,095!!
!$1,035!!
!$1,033!!
!$949!!
!$893!!
!$777!!
!$742!!
!$717!!
2014!
2015!
!$.!!!! !$200!! !$400!! !$600!! !$800!!!$1,000!!!$1,200!!!$1,400!!
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Canada Highlights, Spring 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
20
THE ECONOMY
Non-Residential Building Construction
Investment in non-residential building construction in the Calgary CMA, which includes commercial
building, industrial developments and institutional and government construction, totaled $1.09 billion
in the second quarter of 2015, up 13 per cent from the second quarter of 2014.
Among the largest CMAs in Canada, investment in non-residential construction also rose substantially
in Toronto (+7.2 per cent), Vancouver (+12.4 per cent) and Edmonton (+22 per cent). Year-over-year,
investment declined by 4.2 per cent in Montreal and by 24 per cent in Ottawa in the second quarter of
2015.
Investment in Non-Residential Building Construction (Q2 2014 and Q2 2015)
Selected Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)
($millions)
CMA
Toronto
Q2 2014
$2,461
Montreal
Q2 2015
% Change
$2,638
7.2%
$1,539
$1,474
-4.2%
Calgary
$968
$1,094
13.0%
Vancouver
$790
$888
12.4%
Edmonton
$660
$806
22.1%
Ottawa-Gatineau
$632
$479
-24.2%
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0016.
Just over two-thirds of the non-residential
spending in Alberta in the second quarter of 2015 was on commercial projects, which was virtually
unchanged year-over-year at $1.86 billion. Investment in institutional and governmental projects
19
Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 026-0016.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Q2"2015"
Q3"2014"
Q4"2013"
Q1"2013"
Q2"2012"
Q3"2011"
Q4"2010"
Q1"2010"
Q2"2009"
Q3"2008"
Q4"2007"
600"
400"
200"
0"
Q1"2007"
In Alberta, developers spent $2.73 billion on
non-residential construction projects in the
second quarter of 2015, a 5.0 per cent increase
compared to the second quarter of 2014.
$"millions"
Investment in commercial projects, which makes up approximately 80 per cent of non-residential
construction spending in Calgary, increased 7.6
Investment"in"Non.Residen1al"Building"
per cent year-over-year to $873.2 million in the
Construc1on,"Calgary"CMA"
second quarter of 2015. Investment also jumped
Commercial"
Ins9tu9onal"and"governmental"
Industrial"
51 per cent in Calgary’s institutional and
1400"
governmental and industrial sector to $185.3
1200"
1000"
million. In the industrial sector, investment rose
800"
19
2.8 per cent year-over-year to $34.9 million.
21
THE ECONOMY
climbed 30 per cent to $512 million, the highest level since early 2011, while investment in industrial
structures increased 3.7 per cent to $359 million.20
“While non-residential building activity has held up remarkably well during the current
economic downturn, it is expected to slip further as the year progresses. Many of these
projects, particularly the large commercial office towers, were planned and started well
before oil prices started to fall a year ago. Once started, construction spending generally
continues until the project is completed—which sometimes takes several years. Even with
more pullback expected in the coming quarters, spending on commercial projects is likely to
hold up reasonably well—especially compared to the much sharper downturn in 2009.” 21
Average Weekly Earnings
The average weekly earnings (AWE) of payroll employees in Calgary declined to $1,122 in May 2015
from $1,125 in April 2014, the third straight
Average'Weekly'Earnings'
month of falling earnings. Year-over-year,
average weekly earnings rose by $35 or 3.2 per
Alberta!
Calgary!
Canada!
!$1,200!! !$1,150!!
!$1,153!!
cent in May 2015.22
!$1,150!!
!$1,100!!
!$1,122!!
!$1,050!! !$1,087!!
May015!
Apr015!
Mar015!
Feb015!
Jan015!
Dec014!
Nov014!
Oct014!
Sep014!
Aug014!
!$900!!
!$948!!
!$935!!
Jul014!
!$950!!
Jun014!
!$1,000!!
May014!
“Moderation in wages and earnings is normal
during an economic slowdown. Since the data
includes overtime, it is unsurprising that
earnings should fall as companies require
employees to work fewer overtime hours. As
well, companies that are hiring may be able
to fill positions with wages that are slightly
lower than before.” 23
Source:!CMHC!and!StaHsHcs!Canada!
In Alberta, average weekly earnings dropped to $1,153 in May 2015 from $1,156 the previous month,
the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Year-over-year, weekly earnings in the province rose by just $2
or 0.2 per cent, the lowest growth rate in about 20 years. 24 On average, Albertans earned $205 more per
week in May 2015 than the average Canadian ($948).
“The goods sector [in Alberta] continues to drag down overall earnings growth, down 1.2%
from April, and 1.9% year-over-year (y/y). The majority of industries within the goods sector
experienced both year-over-year and month-over-month declines. Service sector AWE has
20
Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 026-0016.
21
ATB Financial, The Owl, Construction activity holding up, Todd Hirsch, July 16, 2015.
22
CMHC, Housing Now - Calgary CMA, July 2015, p.29.
23
ATB Financial, The Owl, Economy weighing on Albertans' earnings, Todd Hirsch, July 30, 2015.
24
Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 281-0049.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
22
THE ECONOMY
been more stable, maintaining its earnings level from last month, and growing 2.3% from a
year prior.” 25
Calgary’s year-over-year growth in average weekly earnings outpaced growth in consumer inflation for
the sixth consecutive month in May 2015. In May, average weekly earnings in Calgary increased by 3.2
per cent annually, while the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 per cent. Prior to December 2014, the
last time average weekly earnings outpaced inflation was in August 2013.
Average Weekly Earnings and Inflation in Calgary
Per cent change year-over-year
Average&Weekly&Earnings&
All!Items&CPI&
10.0%&
8.0%&
%"change"
6.0%&
4.0%&
2.0%&
0.0%&
!2.0%&
!6.0%&
Jan!13&
Feb!13&
Mar!13&
Apr!13&
May!13&
Jun!13&
Jul!13&
Aug!13&
Sep!13&
Oct!13&
Nov!13&
Dec!13&
Jan!14&
Feb!14&
Mar!14&
Apr!14&
May!14&
Jun!14&
Jul!14&
Aug!14&
Sep!14&
Oct!14&
Nov!14&
Dec!14&
Jan!15&
Feb!15&
Mar!15&
Apr!15&
May!15&
!4.0%&
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 326-0020 and CMHC, Housing Now Calgary CMA.
Employment Insurance
There were 52,160 Albertans receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits in June 2015, a 7.7
per cent increase (3,730 people) compared to May 2015 and a 74 per cent increase (22,170 people)
compared to June 2014. June 2015 was the eighth consecutive month that the number of EI
beneficiaries increased in the province and was at its highest level in almost five years. 26
The most significant month-over-month increases in beneficiaries occurred among those whose last
occupation was in natural and applied sciences (+13.3 per cent or +610), processing, manufacturing
and utilities (+8.5 per cent or +240 people) or trades, transport and equipment operator occupations
(+8.0 per cent or +1,540).
25
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Weekly Economic Review, July 31, 2015, p.1.
26
Statistics Canada, The Daily, Employment Insurance Beneficiaries, June 2015, August 20, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
23
THE ECONOMY
“The current trend is strikingly similar to that experienced in 2009, when the number of
beneficiaries shot from about 20,000 to over 70,000 in less than a year. This time around, the
number of beneficiaries is almost certain to rise as more layoffs are expected in the fall,
particularly in the energy sector.” 27
Despite the jump in the number of regular EI recipients in June 2015, only 2.1 per cent of Alberta’s
labour force were collecting benefits, well below the national average of 2.8 per cent. Only Ontario had
a lower rate in June (2.0 per cent) while almost 12 per cent of workers in Newfoundland and Labrador
was collecting benefits.28
Regular(Employment(Insurance(Beneficiaries,(Alberta(
Jan.15"
May.15"
Sep.14"
Jan.14"
May.14"
Sep.13"
Jan.13"
May.13"
Rest"of"AB"
Sep.12"
Jan.12"
May.12"
Sep.11"
Jan.11"
Edmonton"
May.11"
Sep.10"
Jan.10"
May.10"
Sep.09"
80000"
70000"
60000"
50000"
40000"
30000"
20000"
10000"
0"
Jan.09"
Calgary"
May.09"
In June 2015, 32 per cent of the EI recipients in
the province were in Calgary. Approximately
16,480 Calgarians were receiving regular EI
benefits, up 9.2 per cent from May 2015 and up
65 per cent compared to a year earlier. The
number of EI beneficiaries also increased 68
per cent year-over-year in Edmonton to 17,170
in June. In the rest of Alberta, the number of
beneficiaries was up 89 per cent year-over-year
to 18,510.
Office Market
Overall, Calgary’s office vacancy rate increased to 11.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2015, from
10.2 per cent the previous quarter and 8.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2014. The vacancy rate in
Calgary’s downtown office market jumped to 10.7 per cent, from 6.2 per cent in the second quarter of
2014, while vacancy in the beltline rose over 4.0 percentage points year-over-year to 14.5 per cent in
the second quarter of 2015.
“The Calgary market remained on unsure footing despite the rise in oil prices over the second
quarter, averaging $60 per barrel at June 30th. There are lingering concerns surrounding the
longevity of this new pricing floor, which, coupled with ongoing uncertainties surrounding
the new provincial government has caused concern in the real estate community. Additional
spaces continued to be placed on the sublease market as companies made further moves to
trim expenses and limit their exposure to the market. Landlords also found themselves with
large amounts of headlease space to fill.” 29
27
ATB Financial, The Owl, Employment Insurance beneficiaries jump again in June, Todd Hirsch, August 20, 2015.
28
Ibid.
29
Avison Young, The office Report, Calgary Market, Q2 2015, p.2.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
24
THE ECONOMY
Calgary Office Market Vacancy Rates
Q2 2014 and Q2 2015
Q2%2014%
Q2%2015%
16.0%%
Vacancy&Rate&
14.0%%
12.0%%
10.0%%
14.5%%
11.5%%
10.7%%
10.4%%
12.5%%
11.5%%
12.5%%
10.8%%
Suburban%
South%
Suburban%
North%
8.3%%
8.0%%
6.2%%
6.0%%
4.0%%
2.0%%
0.0%%
Overall%
Downtown%
Beltline%
Source: Avison Young, The Office Report, Calgary Market, Q2 2014 and 2015.
Looking ahead, with nearly four million square feet of office space to hit the market by 2018, Colliers
projects the vacancy rate in downtown Calgary to
climb as high as 17.5 per cent by year-end 2018.
Given the current state of the global economy and a
discrepancy between reported layoffs and listed
vacancies (referred to as ‘ghost vacancy’),30 Colliers
acknowledges this forecast may even be optimistic.
“The geopolitical turmoil in China, Greece and Iran
must be taken into consideration, as the global
instability is already affecting local top-level
decisions and investor sentiment. Future vacant
space in new developments combined with the
ghost vacancy phenomenon are two key drivers for
why the office market will see a slow recovery, and
why tenants will be in a good position for some
time to come.” 31
30
Colliers International, Research and Forecast Report, Calgary Downtown Office Market, Q2 2015, p.2.
31
Ibid, p.4.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
25
THE ECONOMY
Population
Calgary’s population increased by 35,721 or 3.0 per cent from the previous year to 1,230,914 in April
2015. This rate of population growth was very close to that experienced in 2007 (+2.8 per cent).
Natural increase accounted for 30 per cent of the population increase in 2015 (10,812 people) while net
migration accounted for the remaining 60 per cent of the increase (24,909 people).32
“That growth, spanning April 2014 to April 2015, was lower than last year’s record-settingfigure of 38,508 across Calgary, but easily outstrips previous projections of 25,000 used by
the city to base its four-year budget. And that will present challenges to the city as it struggles
to build and maintain infrastructure to accommodate Calgarians, said Mayor Naheed
Nenshi.” 33
City of Calgary Population Growth: 1992 - 2015
Natural$Increase$(le<)$
Net$MigraAon$(le<)$
Annual$PopulaAon$Growth$(right)$
40,000$
4.0%$
35,000$
3.5%$
30,000$
3.0%$
25,000$
2.5%$
20,000$
2.0%$
15,000$
1.5%$
10,000$
1.0%$
0$
0.5%$
*5,000$
0.0%$
1992$
1993$
1994$
1995$
1996$
1997$
1998$
1999$
2000$
2001$
2002$
2003$
2004$
2005$
2006$
2007$
2008$
2009$
2010$
2011$
2012$
2013$
2014$
2015$
5,000$
Source: City of Calgary
32
City of Calgary, 2015 Civic Census Results.
33
Calgary Herald, Calgary's population tops 1.2 million according to new census figures, Trevor Howell, July 29, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
26
THE ECONOMY
Alberta Economy
This section on the Alberta Economy includes a discussion of: Economic Growth, Oil Prices, Major
Construction Projects, Crude Oil Production, Active Drilling Rigs, Rental Market, Retail Sales,
Bankruptcies and Population.
Economic Growth
The big news during the quarter was the election of a majority NDP government. Alberta’s 17th
premier, the Honourable Rachel Notley, and her cabinet, were sworn in on May 24.
“After four decades of Progressive Conservative rule, Albertans voted the Tories out of power
in the May 5th election and replaced them with the New Democrats. The new government is
expected to usher in policy changes that could have significant ramifications for the
provincial economy as Albertans continue to struggle with the impact of lower crude oil
prices.” 34
Low oil prices continued to weigh on the Alberta economy in the second quarter of 2015, with energy
companies continuing to cut back on their capital spending and payrolls. While oil prices improved
modestly over the quarter, economic growth in Alberta in the second half of the year is projected to
remain weak. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting the Alberta economy to contract by 0.7
per cent in 2015, driven mainly by the construction sector. A gradual improvement is projected for the
oil sector next year, and the Alberta economy is projected to grow by a modest 1.1 per cent in 2016.35
Alberta Economic Outlook - Actual and Forecast
Per Cent Change in GDP and Employment, 2000 - 2019
GDP$!$Alberta$
Employment$!$Alberta$
GDP$!$Canada$
8%$
6%$
4%$
2%$
0%$
!2%$
Source: Conference Board of Canada, E-Data System
34
Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, Economic Forecast, Spring 2015.p.64
35
Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, Economic Forecast, Spring 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
2019f$
2018f$
2017f$
2016f$
2015f$
2014$
2013$
2012$
2011$
2010$
2009$
2008$
2007$
2006$
2005$
2004$
2003$
2002$
2001$
!6%$
2000$
!4%$
27
THE ECONOMY
Output in Alberta’s goods-producing industries is forecast to contract 2.4 per cent in 2015, led by an
11.7 per cent decline in construction. Real residential construction investment is projected to contract
by an average of 7.1 per cent over 2015–16.
“The plunge in crude oil prices is hitting not only oil-patch investment; it is also putting a
severe damper on Alberta’s red-hot housing market. The oil patch acted as a magnet to pull in
migrants from different parts of the country and from abroad, generating a lot of residential
construction activities to accommodate the influx of immigrants. In fact, residential
construction investment hit an all-time high of around $20 billion last year—up from $12.9
billion the previous year—as several housing developments broke ground and added close to
41,000 new units to the market. However, with oil firms slamming the brakes on investment
in response to lower crude oil prices, we expect residential investment to cool as well over
the next two years.” 36
No growth is projected for the mining industry in 2015, while output growth in Alberta’s manufacturing
industry is expected to ease from 3.3 per cent in 2014 to just 0.8 per cent in 2015. Agriculture output is
projected to expand by a healthier 4.6 per cent in 2015, after declining 9.0 per cent the previous year.
Output in the services-producing industries is projected to advance by a moderate 0.9 per cent in 2015,
led by 2.6 per cent growth in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing. Output in the public
administration and transportation and warehousing industries is forecast to decline 1.6 per cent and 1.1
per cent respectively in 2015, while output will remain relatively unchanged (-0.1 per cent) in the
wholesale and retail trade industry.37
Contributions to Alberta Real GDP Growth, Select Industries
2015 and 2016 Forecast
2015f%
2016f%
All%industries%
Agriculture%
Finance,%insurance%&%real%estate%
Manufacturing%
Community,%bus.%&%personal%services%
Mining%
Wholesale%&%retail%trade%
Transporta2on%&%warehousing%
Public%administra2on%
Construc2on%
!12%%!10%%!8%% !6%% !4%% !2%% 0%% 2%% 4%% 6%%
%"change"
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, Economic Forecast, Spring 2015.
36
Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, Spring 2015, p.66.
37
Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, Spring 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
28
THE ECONOMY
Oil Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices, the North American benchmark for high quality oil,
improved over the second quarter of 2015, averaging US$57.94 per barrel. This was up from an
average of US$48.64 per barrel the previous quarter. Year-over-year, however, crude prices were down
44 per cent. Western Canada Select (WCS), the Canadian heavy oil benchmark, averaged US$46.35 per
barrel in the second quarter of 2015, up from US$33.90 per barrel in the first quarter of 2014 but down
from US$82.95 year-over-year.
The price differential between Western Canada Select and West Texas Intermediate averaged US$11.59
per barrel in the second quarter of 2015, down from US$14.73 the previous quarter and US$20.05 in
the second quarter of 2014.
“Market conditions for heavy oil improved in Q2/2015 with a rebound in WTI (from multiyear lows realized in Q1/2015) and strong heavy oil differentials. Seasonal demand, excess
pipeline capacity and the startup of new rail facilities all contributed positively to differentials
in the quarter.”
Benchmark Oil Prices (US$/Barrel) and WCS Differential
Quarterly Average, Q1 2009 - Q2 2015
WCS#Differen6al#
West#Texas#Intermediate#(WTI)#
Western#Canada#Select#(WCS)#
120.00#
US$/bbl'
100.00#
80.00#
60.00#
40.00#
0.00#
Q1#09#
Q2#09#
Q3#09#
Q4#09#
Q1#10#
Q2#10#
Q3#10#
Q4#10#
Q1#11#
Q2#11#
Q3#11#
Q4#11#
Q1#12#
Q2#12#
Q3#12#
Q4#12#
Q1#13#
Q2#13#
Q3#13#
Q4#13#
Q1#14#
Q2#14#
Q3#14#
Q4#14#
Q1#15#
Q2#15#
20.00#
Source: Baytex Energy Corp, Historical Oil Pricing
The outlook for oil prices, as outlined by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), is for WTI
to average US$49.62 per barrel in 2015 and US$54.42 per barrel in 2016.38
“EIA projects the Brent crude oil price will average $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016 [...].
WTI prices in both 2015 and 2016 are expected to average $5/b less than the Brent crude oil
price. EIA's updated projection remains subject to significant uncertainties as the oil market
38
U.S. EnergyInformationAdministration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
29
THE ECONOMY
moves toward balance. During this period of price discovery, oil prices could experience
periods of heightened volatility. The oil market faces a host of uncertainties heading into
2016 including the pace and volume at which Iranian oil reenters the market, the strength of
oil consumption growth, and the responsiveness of non-OPEC production to low oil prices. In
the more immediate future, there is potential downward price pressure heading into the fourth
quarter if refinery runs drop by more than expected during the fall maintenance season.” 39
Major Construction Projects
As of the second quarter of 2015, there was an inventory of 264
major projects (a minimum cost of $5 million) under
construction in Alberta, valued at an estimated $73.2 billion. Oil
sands projects accounted for 55 per cent of the value of the
projects ($40.4 billion). The largest oil sands projects under
construction include the $13.5 billion Fort Hills Oil Sands Mine
in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB), the
$8.5 billion North West Bitumen Upgrader in Redwater, the
$3.45 billion Carmon Creek Project in Peace River, the $2.7
billion Christina Lake Thermal Expansion Project in Lac La
Biche County, the $2.06 billion Horizon Oil Sands Project in the
RMWB, the $2.0 billion Foster Creek Oil Sands Project in
Bonnyville and the $2.0 billion Surmont Oil Sands Development
in the RMWB.
Approximately 19 projects valued at $28.0 billion were under
construction in the RMWB during the second quarter of 2015.
Calgary had 91 projects worth $12.4 billion under construction
while Edmonton had 65 projects worth $6.8 billion. The
remaining 89 projects valued at $26.0 billion were located in
various other locations across the province.
Inventory of Major Projects Under Construction in Alberta
# of
Project Sector
Projects
Agriculture / Forestry and Related
1
Rest of Alberta
1
Commercial / Retail
30
Calgary
17
Edmonton
12
Rest of Alberta
1
Commercial / Retail and Residential
6
Calgary
2
Edmonton
2
Rest of Alberta
2
Infrastructure
44
Edmonton
10
Calgary
8
Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
3
Cold Lake
3
Rest of Alberta
32
Institutional
49
Calgary
14
Grande Prairie
1
Edmonton
10
Medicine Hat
3
Lethbridge
3
Rest of Alberta
15
Oil and Gas
5
Redwater
1
Yellowhead County
2
Fort Saskatchewan
1
Ponoka County No. 3
1
Oil Sands
12
Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
7
Redwater
1
Lac La Biche County
2
Peace River
1
Bonnyville
1
Other Sectors
4
Lacombe County
1
Rest of Alberta
3
Pipelines
11
Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
7
Lac La Biche County
1
Bruderheim
1
Rest of Alberta
2
Power
4
Edmonton
1
Calgary
1
Rest of Alberta
2
Residential
65
Calgary
37
Edmonton
24
Rest of Alberta
4
Tourism / Recreation
33
Edmonton
6
Calgary
12
Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
2
Rest of Alberta
13
Total
264
Source: Alberta Enterprise and Advanced Education
Value of Projects
($millions)
$
34.0
$
34.0
$
6,111.9
$
5,314.9
$
775.0
$
22.0
$
466.4
$
415.9
$
25.0
$
25.5
$
4,770.3
$
2,338.9
$
1,558.9
$
317.5
$
138.8
$
551.3
$
3,407.9
$
1,337.6
$
620.0
$
396.2
$
244.0
$
202.4
$
607.7
$
1,105.0
$
415.0
$
260.0
$
220.0
$
210.0
$
40,434.0
$
22,334.0
$
8,500.0
$
4,150.0
$
3,450.0
$
2,000.0
$
1,020.4
$
1,000.0
$
20.4
$
7,562.8
$
5,192.0
$
1,200.0
$
900.0
$
270.8
$
3,745.0
$
1,650.0
$
1,400.0
$
695.0
$
2,383.0
$
1,629.2
$
645.4
$
108.4
$
2,144.7
$
1,003.4
$
716.3
$
166.0
$
259.0
$
73,185.4
Crude Oil Production
Alberta produced 42.8 million cubic metres of crude oil in the
first quarter of 2015, up 10 per cent year-over-year. Production of
crude bitumen (oil sands) was the main driver of growth,
increasing 17 per cent year-over-year. Synthetic crude production
(upgraded bitumen) also increased 9.5 per cent relative to the
first quarter of 2014. Light and medium crude oil production and heavy crude production declined by
5.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively.40
39
US EnergyInformationAdministration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2015.
40
Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 126-0001.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
30
THE ECONOMY
In May 2015, crude oil production in Canada hit an almost two-year low, dropping to 15.6 million
cubic metres, from 16.3 million cubic metres the previous month and a high of 18.9 million cubic
metres in January 2015. Crude oil production in Alberta declined to 12.2 million cubic metres in May
2015, from a high of 14.8 million cubic metres in January 2015.41 Wildfires and upgrader maintenance
in Alberta cut average national production and are expected to have an impact on the Canadian
economy.
“The fires are not only affecting the oil industry, but could hurt the country's economy.
Oilsands shutdowns could mean a 0.1-0.3 per cent hit to second-quarter annualized GDP,
according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research report. Analysts suggest the
fires will likely have much more of an impact than if plants were closing for routine
maintenance.” 42
Three major oil sands projects shut down and evacuated in late May due to wildfires in northeastern
Alberta. The outages at Foster Creek (Cenovus Energy’s project) and Primrose and Kirby South
developments (CNRL’s projects) took about 10 per cent of Alberta’s oil sands output off the market for
several days.43
45000"
40000"
35000"
30000"
25000"
20000"
15000"
10000"
5000"
0"
Heavy"crude"oil"
Light"and"medium"crude"oil"
Synthe?c"crude"oil"
Crude"bitumen"
Q1"2007"
Q2"2007"
Q3"2007"
Q4"2007"
Q1"2008"
Q2"2008"
Q3"2008"
Q4"2008"
Q1"2009"
Q2"2009"
Q3"2009"
Q4"2009"
Q1"2010"
Q2"2010"
Q3"2010"
Q4"2010"
Q1"2011"
Q2"2011"
Q3"2011"
Q4"2011"
Q1"2012"
Q2"2012"
Q3"2012"
Q4"2012"
Q1"2013"
Q2"2013"
Q3"2013"
Q4"2013"
Q1"2014"
Q2"2014"
Q3"2014"
Q4"2014"
Q1"2015"
cubic%metres%x%1000%
Alberta Crude Oil Production
Source: Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 126-0001.
41
Ibid.
42
CBC News, Alberta forest fires affect several oilsands operations, Kyle Bakx, May 28, 2015.
43
The Globe and Mail, Three oil sands projects shut down by Alberta wildfires start back up, Jeffrey Jones, June 11, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
31
THE ECONOMY
Active Drilling Rigs
There was an average of 59 active drilling rigs in Alberta during the second quarter of 2015, down 58
per cent from an average of 139 active rigs in the
second quarter of 2014.44 In Western Canada, there
was an average of 95 active drilling rigs during the
second quarter of 2015, down 52 per cent from an
average of 198 active rigs in the second quarter of
2014.45 The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling
Contractors (CAODC) issued an updated drilling
activity forecast in January 2015 and again in June
2015, “reflecting a sustained effort by contractors to
manage lower demand and subsequent employment
losses.” 46 The CAODC projects the number of active
Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance,
drilling rigs in Western Canada to decline to an average
Weekly Economic Review, July 31, 2015.
of 184 in 2015, from an average of 370 in 2014,
representing a 50 per cent decline. The total number of
operating days is forecast to drop to 66,376 in 2015, from 131,021 the previous year. 47
“Potential policy changes in Alberta with respect to royalties, other factors such as LNG48
activity in British Columbia and depressed commodity prices, means our members must
continue to streamline operations and remain agile,” says CAODC President, Mark Scholz.
“This is our second revision to the drilling forecast, and we will continue to assess the
situation as external factors dictate.” 49
With the assumption that each active drilling rig represents 135 jobs (20 direct jobs and 115 indirect
jobs), the CAODC projects that decreased drilling activity in 2015 could result in the loss of
approximately 3,700 direct jobs and 21,400 indirect jobs compared to 2014.50
44
Government of Alberta, Economic Dashboard, Active Drilling Rigs Alberta, http://
economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/RigActivity
45
CAODC, Rig Counts - By Quarter, http://www.caodc.ca/rig-counts-drilling-dr-quarter
46
CAODC, Press Release, Canadian Oil Drillers Revise Forecast amid Sustained Economic Pressure, Monday, 15 Jun 2015.
47
CAODC Forecast - 2015, Revised June 15, 2015.
48
Liquified Natural Gas
49
CAODC, Press Release, Canadian Oil Drillers Revise Forecast amid Sustained Economic Pressure, Monday, 15 Jun 2015.
50
CAODC Forecast - 2015, Revised June 2015..
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
32
THE ECONOMY
Rental Market
Alberta’s apartment vacancy rate rose to 3.4 per cent in April 2015, from 1.8 per cent the previous year.
As the economy has slowed, with layoffs and
Private Apartment Vacancy Rates in Alberta’s
fewer jobs available, the demand for rental
Largest Urban Centres, April 2014 and 2015
housing has shifted in many of the province’s
regions. In addition, an increased supply of
rental apartments in Alberta has contributed to
3.4%%
Alberta%
the jump in vacancy rates. The number of
22.3%%
Wood%Buffalo%
purpose-built rental apartment units in the
6.2%%
Lethbridge%
province increased to approximately 115,680
3.2%%
Calgary%
units in April 2015, from 112,600 units in April
2.8%%
AprJ15%
Medicine%Hat%
2014.51
2.6%%
AprJ14%
Grande%Prairie%
Among the province’s largest urban centres,
Red Deer and Edmonton had the lowest
apartment vacancy rate in April 2015 at 2.4 per
cent. Wood Buffalo’s apartment vacancy rate
leaped to 22.3 per cent, from 7.0 per cent a year
earlier.
Red%Deer%
2.4%%
Edmonton%
2.4%%
0.0%%
5.0%%
10.0%%
15.0%%
20.0%%
25.0%%
Vacancy&Rate&
“A decline in oil prices has slowed growth in the Alberta economy as oil and gas companies
have reduced capital investments and employment. In particular, markets such as Cold Lake
and Wood Buffalo, where the energy industry is a large share of the local economy, recorded
increases in rental vacancy rates and declines in same-sample rents.” 52
The average rental price for a two-bedroom apartment in Alberta increased to $1,249 per month in
April 2015, from $1,190 the previous year. Prices increased in all the major urban centres on a yearover-year basis, with the exception of Wood Buffalo, where rents for a two-bedroom unit declined to
$1,984 per month, from $2,061 per month in April 2014.
Despite the decline, Wood Buffalo had the highest average rent for a two-bedroom apartment among
the major urban centres in April 2015, followed by Calgary ($1,319) and Edmonton ($1,250). Medicine
Hat had the lowest rent for a two-bedroom apartment in 2015 at $825 per month, up from $739 per
month in April 2014.
51
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Alberta Highlights, Spring 2015, p.2.
52
Ibid, p.2.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
33
THE ECONOMY
Private Apartment Average Rents (Two-Bedroom)
in Alberta’s Largest Urban Centres, April 2014 and 2015
!$1,249!!
Alberta!
!$1,984!!
Wood!Buffalo!
!$1,319!!
Calgary!
Edmonton!
!$1,250!!
Grande!Prairie!
!$1,216!!
Apr-14!
!$1,024!!
Red!Deer!
!$923!!
Lethbridge!
!$825!!
Medicine!Hat!
!$-!!!!
Apr-15!
!$500!! !$1,000!! !$1,500!! !$2,000!! !$2,500!!
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Alberta Highlights, Spring 2015.
Year-over-year, however, total sales were down
3.7 per cent in June 2015. Over the same
period, the price of crude oil dropped over 40
per cent, from an average of US$105 per barrel
in June 2014 to around US$60 in June 2015.
6"
5.5"
5"
4.5"
4"
Mar*08"
Jun*08"
Sep*08"
Dec*08"
Mar*09"
Jun*09"
Sep*09"
Dec*09"
Mar*10"
Jun*10"
Sep*10"
Dec*10"
Mar*11"
Jun*11"
Sep*11"
Dec*11"
Mar*12"
Jun*12"
Sep*12"
Dec*12"
Mar*13"
Jun*13"
Sep*13"
Dec*13"
Mar*14"
Jun*14"
Sep*14"
Dec*14"
Mar*15"
Jun*15"
“After peaking in September, sales started to
slide, hitting a bottom in January. Since then,
the situation has stabilized and even
improved slightly.” 54
$Billions((seasonally(adjusted)(
Retail Sales
Retail sales in Alberta totaled $6.36 billion in June 2015, an increase of 0.4 per cent compared to the
previous month. This was the second
consecutive month that retail sales rose in the
Alberta(Retail(Sales(($Billions)(
province, after increasing by 0.4 per cent to
7"
$6.34 billion in May 2015.53
6.5"
Source:(Sta+s+cs(Canada,(CANSIM(Table(080:0020(
Sales at gasoline stations in Alberta were down 12.5 per cent year-over-year in June 2015, mainly as a
result of lower prices. Sales from motor vehicle and parts dealers, which made up about 30 per cent of
total retail sales, also declined 5.2 per cent. Excluding these two retail categories, retail sales in the
53
Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 080-0020.
54
ATB Financial, The Owl, Retail Sales inch higher in June, Todd Hirsch, August 21, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
34
THE ECONOMY
province were up 3.4 per cent year-over-year in June, led by growth in sales at health and personal care
stores (+10.2 per cent) and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+9.4 per
cent).
Year-over-Year Change in Retail Spending Categories, Alberta
June 2015
Motor&vehicle&&&parts&dealers&
!5.2%&
Furniture&&&home&furnishings&
Electronics&&&appliances&
Building&materials,&garden&equipment&
Food&&&beverages&
Health&&&personal&care&
Gasoline&staJons&!12.5%&
Clothing&&&clothing&accessories&
SporJng&goods,&hobby,&book&&&music&
General&merchandise&stores&
Miscellaneous&store&retailers&
2.9%&
6.9%&
9.4%&
1.5%&
10.2%&
0.9%&
5.6%&
0.2%&
8.4%&
!15%&!12%&!9%& !6%& !3%& 0%& 3%& 6%& 9%& 12%&
Year%over%year)%)change)
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 080-0020.
Retail sales in Alberta are forecast to decline by 2.5 per cent in 2015 to $76.7 billion,55 as lower oil
prices weigh on incomes and dampen consumer spending.
“Our forecast calls for average weekly wages (industrial composite) to drop or, at best, to be
flat this year, compared with the average annual gains of 4.4 per cent over the past decade
that helped fuel the rapid growth in household personal incomes in the province. In the end,
we expect real household disposable income of each working-age Albertan to be reduced by
an average of $340 over the next two years. Due to the drop in income and a slowdown in the
net inflow of migrants, retailers will struggle to keep their cash registers busy this year as
Albertans become all too conscious of the implications of falling oil prices on their household
budgets.” 56
55
The Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, Spring 2015.
56
Ibid, p.67.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
35
THE ECONOMY
Bankruptcies
Approximately 1,100 Albertans filed for personal bankruptcy in the second quarter of 2015, up 10.2 per
cent from 997 bankruptcies the previous quarter and up 3.2 per cent from 1,065 year-over-year. Among
the economic regions in Alberta, consumer bankruptcies declined 14 per cent year-over-year in the
second quarter of 2015 in Lethbridge-Medicine Hat, 12 per cent in Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain
House, and 1.4 per cent in Edmonton. The remaining five regions in the province posted year-over-year
increases in personal bankruptcies in the second quarter of 2015, led by Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake
(+119 per cent), Camrose-Drumheller (+54 per cent), Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River (+6.9 per
cent) and Red Deer (+4.4 per cent). About 380 Calgarians filed for personal bankruptcy, up 1.6 per cent
compared to the second quarter of 2014. 57
“We are now more than a year into the slump in oil prices and the dire warnings of Alberta’s
economic collapse. Given the circumstances, one would reasonably conclude that consumer
bankruptcies would be skyrocketing by now. But in fact, the opposite is the case—Alberta
has the lowest default rate in the country.” 58
Thirty-four businesses filed for bankruptcy in Alberta in the second quarter of 2015, up 70 per cent
from the previous quarter and up 36 per cent year-over-year. Thirteen Calgary businesses and eight
Edmonton businesses filed for bankruptcy in the second quarter of 2015.
Personal and Business Bankruptcies in Alberta
140"
2500"
120"
100"
2000"
80"
1500"
60"
1000"
40"
500"
Q1"2015"
Q3"2014"
Q1"2014"
Q3"2013"
Q1"2013"
Q3"2012"
Q3"2011"
Q1"2012"
Q1"2011"
Q3"2010"
Q3"2009"
Q1"2010"
Q1"2009"
20"
Q3"2008"
0"
Business'Bankruptcies'
Business"
3000"
Q1"2008"
Personal'Bankruptcies'
Personal"
0"
Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada
57
Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, Insolvency Statistics in Canada - Second Quarter 2015.
58
ATB Financial, The Owl, Bankruptcy rates lowest here in Alberta, Todd Hirsch, July 3, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
36
THE ECONOMY
In April 2015, Alberta had the lowest personal bankruptcies on
a per capita basis at 9 per 100,000. In Atlantic Canada, rates
ranged from about 28 to 40 personal bankruptcies per
100,000.
“Alberta’s low levels of consumer bankruptcy per capita can
be partially attributed to low interest rates. Even those
shoppers that have taken on far too much consumer debt seem
mostly able to manage their debt servicing costs. And despite
the current economic downturn, most Albertans in the labour
force (94.2 per cent) are still working and earning the highest
wages in the country.” 59
Population
Alberta’s population grew by 15,365 in the first quarter of 2015, to an estimated 4,175,400. This was
the seventeenth consecutive quarter that the province recorded the highest quarterly population growth
rate in the country (+0.37 per cent), ahead of Manitoba (+0.18 per cent) and Saskatchewan and British
Columbia (+0.16 per cent). Canada’s population increased 0.13 per cent on a quarterly basis in the first
quarter of 2015.60
Alberta gained 6,732 net interprovincial migrants during the first quarter, the highest net inflow among
provinces. Interprovincial migration accounted for approximately 44 per cent of the province’s
population increase during the first three months of 2015. Most of the net migrants to Alberta arrived
from Ontario (+3,177), Quebec (+987), Manitoba (+927) and Saskatchewan (+845), while a net 1,118
Albertans relocated to British Columbia over the quarter.
Net international migration totaled 991 in the first quarter of 2015, accounting for just 6.5 per cent of
the province’s population increase. A net outflow of about 5,900 non-permanent residents (NPRs) was
the main reason net international migration has eased.
“In the past few years, strong inflows of net NPRs have helped boost Alberta’s population
growth, but outflows this quarter have weighed on net international migration to the province
in the latest two quarters. In the first quarter, there was an outflow of 5,896 NPRs, the second
straight decline and the largest loss since the fourth quarter of 2010. In Alberta, temporary
foreign workers (TFWs) make up a large portion of NPRs; federal changes to the TFW
program have contributed to recent outflows of NPRs.” 61
59
ATB Financial, The Owl, Bankruptcy rates lowest here in Alberta, Todd Hirsch, July 3, 2015.
60
Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 91-002-XWE, Quarterly Demographic Estimates, January to March 2015, June 17, 2015.
61
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Quarterly Population Report, First Quarter 2015,
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
37
THE ECONOMY
Alberta led all provinces with a natural growth rate of 0.18 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. Natural
increase totaled 7,642 (14,046 births and 6,404 deaths), and accounted for about half of the province’s
population increase in the first three months of the year.
Components of Alberta’s Population Growth
Natural%Increase%
Net%Interprovincial%Migra>on%
40,000%
35,000%
30,000%
25,000%
20,000%
15,000%
10,000%
5,000%
0%
!5,000%
Q1%2008%
Q2%2008%
Q3%2008%
Q4%2008%
Q1%2009%
Q2%2009%
Q3%2009%
Q4%2009%
Q1%2010%
Q2%2010%
Q3%2010%
Q4%2010%
Q1%2011%
Q2%2011%
Q3%2011%
Q4%2011%
Q1%2012%
Q2%2012%
Q3%2012%
Q4%2012%
Q1%2013%
Q2%2013%
Q3%2013%
Q4%2013%
Q1%2014%
Q2%2014%
Q3%2014%
Q4%2014%
Q1%2015%
Persons'
Net%Interna>onal%Migra>on%
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 276-0041.
%"change"
For the tenth consecutive quarter, Alberta posted the highest annual population growth rate among
provinces in the first quarter of 2015 at 2.2 per
cent. Saskatchewan and Manitoba had the next
Annual"Popula/on"Growth"Rates"
highest growth rates at 1.3 and 1.2 per cent
Canada"and"Provinces,"Q1"2015"
respectively. Year-over-year, the population of
2.50%&
2.17%&
Newfoundland and Labrador declined by 0.25
2.00%&
per cent while the population of New
1.22%&1.27%&
1.50%&
1.09%&
0.94%&
0.81%&
Brunswick decreased by 0.1 per cent.
1.00%&
0.67%&
0.35%&
62
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Population Projection, Alberta 2015 - 2041 Highlights, July 31, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
BC
&
AB
&
SK
&
B&
M
ON
&
QC
&
NB
&
NS
&
PE
&
&
da
na
Ca
NL
&
0.50%&
The long term population projections for
0.08%&
0.00%&
Alberta were recently completed by Alberta
'0.11%&
'0.25%&
'0.50%&
Treasury Board and Finance. The current
projection covers the period from 2015 to 2041.
According to the medium growth assumptions,
Alberta’s population is projected to grow by
about 2.1 million people from 2015 to 2041, representing an average annual growth of 1.5 per cent.
This is slightly slower than the 1.8 per cent growth recorded over the previous 30 year period from
1984 to 2014. Alberta’s population is projected to reach the five million mark in 2026, and the six
million mark in 2039.62
38
THE ECONOMY
Canadian Economy
This section on the Canadian Economy includes a discussion of: Economic Growth, Consumer
Spending, Trade and Housing.
Economic Growth
External developments including the ongoing drag emanating from persistently low oil prices and soft
levels of U.S. demand delivered a powerful blow to the Canadian economy during the first half of
2015. Analysts appear to have consistently underestimated the impact and duration of the oil price
shock on the Canadian economy over the past year, as real GDP forecasts for 2015 were successively
downgraded as new data became available with each passing quarter. From a high of 2.6 per cent in
July 2014 (just as oil began its initial price plunge), consensus GDP forecasts fell a full percentage
point to 1.6 per cent one year later.
Consensus Forecasts for Canadian Real GDP Growth
and WTI Oil Price, By Date of Forecast
Real$GDP$
WTI$Price$per$Barrel$(US$)$
3.0%$
$120.00$
2.5%$
$100.00$
2.0%$
$80.00$
1.5%$
$60.00$
1.0%$
$40.00$
0.5%$
$20.00$
0.0%$
$0.00$
Jul014$
Oct014$
Jan015$
Apr015$
Jul015$
Source: Conference Board of Canada, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
39
THE ECONOMY
Even the recent 1.6 per cent lowered real GDP forecast may be optimistic, as overall output fell again
in April (-0.1 per cent) and May (-0.2 per cent), coming in below expectations and marking five months
of consecutive decline.63 As was anticipated, much of May’s downturn was again driven by weakness
in the resource sector (-0.7 per cent) as wildfire in Alberta subtracted an estimated 10 per cent of oil
sands production on the month.64 In May, output in Canada’s troubled resource sector was down 7.3 per
cent year-over-year. However, the surprise in May was the breadth of decline across a variety of
Canadian industries.
Across major industries, May’s biggest disappointment was manufacturing. Following no growth in
April, May’s weakness was primarily the result of diminished factory activity, which weighed on
related sectors such as wholesale trade and transportation. The positive impacts of a depreciated
Canadian dollar, improved economic conditions south of the border, and highly accommodative
borrowing conditions have not yet materialized in manufacturing.
“Although earlier shipment data had suggested that manufacturing would be a slight drag on
output this month, the 1.7% drop was much worse than expected. … The weaker Canadian
dollar might take longer to spark a rebound in exports and in the manufacturing sector.
However, the industry has now shrunk 2.3% on the year, bringing the level of real shipments
back to levels last seen at the end of 2013. Manufacturing’s weakness was good enough for a
two-tick drag to monthly GDP, a larger hit from even the energy sector this month.” 65
It isn’t only the manufacturing and oil and gas sectors that have exhibited weakness in 2015, as overall
investment levels are projected to decline by about 7.0 per cent this year. Double-digit percentage drops
in industries such as professional, scientific and technical services (-23.2 per cent), health care and
social assistance (-14.2 per cent) and arts, entertainment and recreation (-14.8 per cent) are anticipated
in 2015.66 While a return to minimally positive investment growth is expected next year, businesses
have been reluctant to undertake significant capital expenditure despite the highly accommodative
borrowing environment.
63
BMO Economics, Cdn GDP: Lost That Growing Feeling, July 31, 2015.
64
Scotia Economics, Weak Q2 GDP In Canada, July 31, 2015.
65
CIBC Economics, Canadian GDP: The Disappointments Continue Into May, July 31, 2015.
66
Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 029-0045.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
40
THE ECONOMY
Real Investment in Non-Residential Structures, Machinery and Equipment and Intellectual
Property Products, Annual Percent Change, Actual and Forecast, 2005 to 2019
Actual%
20%%
Forecast%
13.7%%
11.4%%
7.6%%
15%% 11.4%%
8.9%%
10%%
2.6%%3.9%%
5%%
5.1%%
3.4%%
0.9%%
0.6%%
1.4%%
0%%
+0.2%%
+5%%
+10%%
+7.0%%
+15%%
+20%%
2019%
2018%
2017%
2016%
2015%
2014%
2013%
2012%
2011%
2010%
2009%
2008%
2007%
2006%
+19.6%%
2005%
+25%%
Source: Conference Board of Canada
The service sector (which accounts for about 70 per cent of Canada’s output) also declined in May (-0.1
per cent) – its first monthly drop since January. 67 While retail trade recorded a healthy 0.5 per cent
increase on the month (+3.3 per cent year-over-year), the majority of other sub-sectors contracted,
including education (-0.4 per cent), finance and insurance (-0.3 per cent) and health care (-0.1 per cent).
The Canadian economy posted an output decline of 0.6 per cent (annualized) in the first quarter of
2015. The second quarter, barring a substantial rebound in June or upward revisions to prior months, is
tracking to register a contraction of similar magnitude. This scenario is in line with recent Bank of
Canada forecasts, which projected a 0.5 per cent second quarter output contraction.68 Such an outcome
would satisfy the technical definition of recession – albeit a relatively small one.
“The more popular definition is marked by back-to-back quarterly declines in GDP. … Note
that when this definition of recession has been met in the past, it has typically been marked
by vastly larger and longer-lived quarterly percentage declines such as in the early 1980s,
early 1990s, and 2009.” 69
67
TD Economics, Canadian Economic Slump To Ease In Latter Half Of 2015, July 31, 2015.
68
CIBC Economics, Canadian GDP: The Disappointments Continue Into May, July 31, 2015.
69
Scotia Economics, Global Views, July 10, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
41
THE ECONOMY
However, on the theory that GDP growth alone provides an incomplete picture of a country’s overall
economic health, some analysts prefer to use an alternate method in assessing recessionary conditions.
One such institution is the National Bureau of Economic Research – the official arbiter of recessions in
the U.S. This alternate approach takes a broad array of indicators into consideration, including the
strength of the consumer sector as well as labour, housing and financial markets.
Employment conditions typically deteriorate significantly during periods of recession in Canada, with
nearly 100,000 jobs lost during the worst three months of the 2008-09 recession, about 50,000 in 1991,
and over 60,000 in the early 1980s. Conversely, Canada added nearly 70,000 jobs during the first seven
months of 2015 on a seasonally adjusted basis. 70 Further, the increase in the unemployment rate (from
6.6 per cent in January to 6.8 per cent in July) primarily reflected a slight upward trend in the
participation rate.
Similarly, housing markets in Canada have continued to exhibit strong growth in 2015, with home
prices and sales up from year-ago levels. Financial markets have proven stable even with a substantial
oil-related decline in corporate profits. Credit growth has improved in the business sector; and
inventories have not yet elevated to precarious levels. On the consumer side, vehicle sales have shown
no sign of slowing; and retail sales volumes have been resilient this year despite a heightened degree of
volatility.
Overall, while Canada exhibits a relatively high likelihood of recession, no major sectors of the
economy (with the exception of oil and gas) have shown signs of a severe downturn.
Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada’s cut to the overnight rate in July to 0.5 per cent (the second cut so
far this year) should provide some support to consumer spending and investment in the months to
come.71 The resulting sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar (which is currently hovering around its
lowest level in more than ten years at less than US$0.77) should also encourage trade activity among
exporting industries. Canada’s manufacturing and forestry sectors are expected to see an additional
boost in tandem with a pickup in U.S. industrial production and housing market activity respectively.
Canadian economic growth is expected to rise to 1.3 per cent (annualized) during the second half of
2015 and improve to 2.2 per cent in 2016. By 2018, real GDP is forecast to slow to its estimated longterm rate of less than 2.0 per cent.72
While the performance of the Canadian economy has certainly disappointed thus far in 2015, the
stability observed across most of its major sectors has some analysts reluctant to apply the recession
label just yet. Further, the outlook for the remainder of 2015 and 2016 looks much brighter.
Nonetheless, the string of bad economic news during the first half of the year has dampened the spirits
of some forecasters.
70
Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0087.
71
TD Economics, Canadian Economic Slump To Ease In Latter Half Of 2015, July 31, 2015.
72
TD Economics, Long-Term Economic Forecast, June 18, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
42
THE ECONOMY
“While we believe the five-month string of declines is likely to end in the next monthly
report, that’s cold comfort following a run of disappointment. More important is whether the
economy can begin to recover in the second half of the year — we think it will amid an
improving U.S. economy, stronger auto production, some fiscal stimulus and generous
financial conditions. But, there is no debating that the steady drum-beat of bad news raises
doubts on that relatively sunny outlook.” 73
Consumer Spending
Canadian retail sales were volatile over the first half of 2015, partially due to fluctuations in the price of
gasoline as well as store closures in the electronics sub-sector. Nonetheless, spending figures came in
above expectations late in the second quarter, with early estimates pointing to an increase of just over
2.0 per cent (annualized) in sales volumes over the second quarter as a whole. 74
“While not a big upside surprise, the mildly encouraging retail results break a run of sour
news for the Canadian economy. The decent result also plays up the fact that the consumer is
still doing its job – now the economy needs some serious help from non-resource exports.” 75
Auto sales also recorded continued strength into the second quarter of 2015, coming in at 1.87 million
units (annualized) in June, down from May’s 1.90 million units but up 1.4 per cent year-over-year.
Forecasters expect auto sales to come down slightly over the remainder of the year to finish at 1.86
million units, only slightly below the record 1.89 million units sold in 2014.76 However, further rate
cuts by the Bank of Canada in July, continued growth in household incomes, and resilient consumer
confidence may allow for some upside risk to auto sales in the second half of 2015.
Canadian household debt continued to accumulate during the second quarter of the year, and in June
was up $86 billion from a year ago to a total of $1.85 trillion (+4.9 per cent).77 The majority of credit
growth was driven by residential mortgage loans, which accounted for nearly $70 billion of the yearly
increase. So far in 2015, mortgage loans have posted increases in the range of 5.4 to 5.6 per cent – the
strongest rates of growth since early 2013. 78
Trade
Canada’s trade position weakened throughout much of the first half of 2015, culminating in an
unexpected widening of the merchandise trade deficit to $3.4 billion in May – the second widest on
73
BMO Economics, Cdn GDP: Lost That Growing Feeling, July 31, 2015.
74
CIBC Economics, Strong May Canadian Retail Sales, But Volumes Less Impressive, July 23, 2015.
75
BMO Economics, Canadian Consumers Tune In Again, July 23, 2015.
76
RBC Economics, Canada and U.S. June Auto Sales, July 9, 2015.
77
RBC Economics, Ongoing accumulation of credit in Canada persists, July 28, 2015.
78
RBC Economics, Household debt growth gradually edges higher as business credit eases, July 2, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
43
THE ECONOMY
record.79 This is of particular importance to Canada, as exports of goods and services account for about
one-third of GDP.80 However, in June, Canadian exports jumped 6.3 per cent, regaining all of the
ground lost over the prior six months and narrowing the trade deficit to $476 million. Driven by a sharp
and broad-based increase in U.S. demand, this was the boost to non-energy exports that forecasters had
long been anticipating. Unfortunately, the export surge likely arrived too late for trade to meaningfully
contribute to GDP in the second quarter.
“After a huge drop in the Canadian dollar, and a dive in exports on weather and other
disruptions in the first quarter, the betting was that non-energy export volumes would step up
in Q2. Instead, despite a huge June, Q2 real export growth was minimal.” 81
While the lift to exports in June was reassuring for Canada’s trade picture, the outlook for Canada’s
non-energy export sector remains mixed.
The relative strength of the Canadian dollar throughout much of the past ten years has stripped a great
deal of capacity from the manufacturing base. Canada has lost 5.0 per cent of its share of North
America auto assemblies since 2010 alone, a sector that represents Canada’s largest export segment
after the oil industry.82 Further, U.S. manufacturing has tended to shift further south, to be more readily
supplied by a developing hub in Mexico. In this sense, even a sustained depreciation of the Canadian
dollar and a pickup in U.S. demand may be insufficient to generate export growth in this sector.
Conversely, the U.S. economic rebound has been slow to materialize, and forecasters estimate that the
impact of a cheaper currency and rising U.S. GDP on Canadian export volumes may not be fully felt
until six quarters hence. 83 This would imply that Canada’s trade conditions could continue to exhibit
significant improvement well into 2016. As well, a number of other sectors have outperformed in
export growth in recent quarters and may benefit greatly from a continued pickup in U.S. demand and
favourable exchange conditions, including aerospace, chemicals and forestry.84
“…Canada has likely skidded through the soft patch and is ready for a come-back over the
next two quarters, with momentum in both consumer spending and exports underpinning our
view of a rebound in economic growth. While a further leg down in oil prices will continue to
weigh on the oil sector in Canada, the non-energy sector is likely to continue to benefit from
an improving U.S. economy and low Canadian dollar (which is currently at its lowest level
since 2004).” 85
79
BMO Economics, Trade Picture Just Gets Uglier, July 7, 2015.
80
Scotia Economics, Global Views, July 10, 2015.
81
CIBC Economics, The Cheaper Loonie’s Lift to Exports: Waiting Longer for Less, August 11, 2015.
82
Ibid.
83
Ibid.
84
Scotia Economics, Global Views, July 10, 2015.
85
TD Economics, Data Release: Canadian exports make a comeback in June, August 5, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
44
THE ECONOMY
Housing
Canadian housing starts edged up again in the second quarter of 2015, reaching 202,800 units
(annualized) in June.86 While this level of starts is high relative to demographic demand, some of the
increase was compensation for low levels of building activity during the tough winter months in the
prior quarter. Multi-unit starts led much of the summer’s growth, rising 3.7 per cent in June to their
highest level in nearly three years. Conversely, single-detached starts also edged up but remain only
modestly above six-year lows.
“If there’s a recession in Canada, nobody told the housing market. Quite the opposite, in fact,
with housing starts finishing the second quarter on a solid note. Even in Alberta, where the
resale market has corrected, new construction activity is holding up reasonably well
considering the challenges.” 87
Home buying activity was down slightly in June, but the dip followed four consecutive monthly gains
to put year-over-year sales up a substantial 11 per cent.88 Record low mortgage rates contributed to a
general tightening of housing market conditions in the second quarter of 2015, with both the national
sales-to-new-listings ratio and the months’ supply of homes on the market reaching their tightest levels
since early 2010. While Vancouver and Toronto continue to drive the positive housing market
performance in Canada, 21 of 26 cities posted higher sales over the first half of 2015 relative to last
year, with 10 cities recording double-digit growth.
“Canada’s housing sector continues to show considerable resilience, providing an important
pillar of support for the economy at a time when the much-anticipated rotation from
households to export- and investment-led growth has been slow to materialize.” 89
In the context of only moderate income growth, consistent average home price increases (up 9.6 per
cent year-over-year in June) pose a risk to the housing market outlook by reducing the affordability of
home ownership. Borrowing costs are currently accommodative and the Bank of Canada is not
expected to raise its key rate until well into 2016. However, an upward bias in global bond yields,
firming inflation trends, and U.S. monetary policy normalization could begin to lift fixed mortgage
rates in the second half of 2015 and into 2016. Forecasters estimate that housing affordability could
deteriorate by about 10 per cent from current levels to the end of 2016, even with an anticipated
slowing in home price growth next year. 90 This factor, along with slowing population growth in the
important 25 to 34 first-time buyer age group, should contribute to a moderation in housing market
activity over the next two years.
86
RBC Economics, Monthly Housing Market Update, July 15, 2015.
87
BMO Economics, No ‘Recession’ for Cdn Homebuilding, July 9, 2015.
88
BMO Economics, Canadian Housing Market Sturdy, July 15, 2015.
89
Scotia Economics, Global Views, June 19, 2015.
90
RBC Economics, Regional housing affordability at crosscurrents in Canada in Q1, June 22, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
45
THE ECONOMY
Mortgage Payments as a % of Average Household Income* and Annual % Change in Average
Existing Home Prices, Actual and Forecast, 2012 to 2016
Annual"%"Change"in"Home"Prices"
27.0"
8"
7"
26.5"
6"
26.0"
5"
25.5"
4"
3"
25.0"
2"
24.5"
1"
24.0"
0"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2015"
Annual&%&Change&in&Exis0ng&Home&
Prices&
%&of&Average&Household&Income&
Mortgage"Payment"as"%"of"Income"
2016"
Source: TD Economics *Assuming average home price, 25% downpayment, 25-year amortization
Global/U.S. Economy
This section includes a discussion of: Global Economic Growth, Advanced Economies, Emerging
Economies, U.S. Economic Growth, Consumer Spending, Investment and U.S. Labour Market.
Global Economic Growth
The performance of the global economy fell short of expectations early in 2015, with growth slowing
in the world’s largest economies of the U.S. and China. Following the relatively poor first quarter in
these driver economies, forecasts were generally downgraded with global real GDP expected to
decelerate from 3.4 per cent in 2014 to between 2.8 and 3.2 per cent in 2015 – the weakest nonrecessionary showing in more than a decade.91 92 The outlook for 2016 is somewhat better, with real
growth forecasts in the range of 3.3 to 3.6 per cent.
While emerging market economies (EMEs) should continue to account for a greater share of global
growth relative to advanced economies, the gap between the two groups is projected to narrow further
in 2015.
“…Important shifts are emerging. The recovery in high-income countries is expected to
gather momentum, while a broad-based slowdown appears to be underway in developing
countries this year. Looking forward, global activity should be supported by continued low
91
World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2015.
92
TD Economics, Global Outlook: Early Optimism Dented But Pickup Now Underway, June 18, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
46
THE ECONOMY
commodity prices and generally still-benign financing conditions, notwithstanding the
expected modest tightening in U.S. monetary policy.” 93
Annual Global Real GDP Growth Rates, Actual and Forecast, 2007 to 2020
World#
Advanced#
Developing#
10#
Annual&%&Change&
8#
6#
4#
2#
0#
2020#
2019#
2018#
2017#
2016#
2015#
2014#
2013#
2012#
2011#
2010#
2009#
2008#
!4#
2007#
!2#
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database
Advanced Economies
Taking up the slack for a stalling U.S. economy, the recovery in the Euro Area has progressed more
rapidly since late 2014. Growth has been supported by a depreciated euro, cheap oil prices, record-low
borrowing costs, and improvements in bank credit supply conditions.94 Importantly, growth is
increasingly being observed in economies that had struggled to sustain a recovery since the financial
crisis, including Spain, Portugal and Italy. Euro Area real GDP expanded by 1.6 per cent (annualized)
in the first quarter of 2015, and is expected to maintain this pace through the remainder of the year, up
from 0.9 per cent last year. The outlook is projected to improve into 2016, with real growth forecasts in
the area of 1.9 per cent.
Nevertheless, the pickup in European activity has been largely dependent on significant monetary
policy support in the form of quantitative easing; and performances across economies in the region
have been divergent.
Further, while the Euro Area unemployment rate had fallen to 11.3 per cent in mid-2015 from 12.1 per
cent one year ago, the overall unemployment rate may not adequately represent the amount of slack
still remaining in European labour markets. Aggregate unemployment in the Euro Area has declined by
more than one million persons since peaking in early 2013, but the region continues to struggle with
persistently high rates of long-term unemployment, underemployment, and discouraged workers.95
93
World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2015.
94
Ibid.
95
Conference Board Economics Watch, European View, May 29, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
47
THE ECONOMY
Since 2008, the numbers of long-term unemployed (>1 year), involuntary part-time workers, and
persons available to work but not actively seeking employment have trended up even when overall
unemployment fell.
Euro Area Unemployment Indicators, Q1 2008 to Q1 2015
Persons#available#to#work#but#not#seeking#
Long9term#unemployed#
Unemployed#(RHS)#
9#
8#
7#
6#
2015#Q1#
2014#Q1#
2013#Q1#
2012#Q1#
2011#Q1#
2010#Q1#
4#
2009#Q1#
5#
2008#Q1#
Millions'of'Persons'
10#
20#
19#
18#
17#
16#
15#
14#
13#
12#
11#
10#
Millions'of'Unemployed'
Underemployed#part9:me#workers#
Source: Eurostat, Employment and Unemployment Data Tables (LFS), Seasonally Adjusted.
Ongoing political and economic turmoil in Greece have also weighed on confidence in the Euro Area
and global financial markets. Facing bank closures, debt default, and a potential exit from the currency
union, recently elected Prime Minister Tsipras (who had campaigned on an anti-austerity platform)
stated that he was “forced to accept” the harsh fiscal measures insisted upon by Greece’s creditors in
order to avert an economic catastrophe.96 Some of these measures include an increase in corporate and
consumer tax rates, pension reform, and aggressive budget surplus targets. The bailout package should
provide Greece with another €86 billion over the next three years to recapitalize banks, repay debts,
reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio, and generate investment funding for growth and jobs.97 A number of
institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are skeptical that the bailout package
will be successful in prompting a sustained recovery in Greece without additional and significant debt
relief.98 Bailout loans made to Greece since 2010 already amount to €240 billion.
Driven by strong domestic demand but not immune to early-year softness, the U.K. managed real
growth of 1.2 per cent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2015. Activity is expected to accelerate
through the remainder of the year to an average of 2.6 per cent, as low oil prices, robust job creation
and rising wages continue to bolster consumer spending. The Bank of England has started to unwind its
96
CBC News, Greek banks to reopen Monday as EU bailout vote passes, July 16, 2015.
97
BBC News, Greece debt crisis: German MPs vote ‘yes’ to bailout talks, July 17, 2015.
98
The Guardian, IMF steps up Greek bailout criticism over debt relief package, July 17, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
48
THE ECONOMY
monetary support measures, and is expected to implement its first post-crisis interest rate hike during
the first half of 2016.
The Japanese economy surprised on the upside, surging by a robust 3.9 per cent (annualized) during the
first quarter of 2015. While about half of the gain was due to a buildup in inventories, business
confidence has exhibited signs of improvement and consumer spending has increased steadily since
mid-2014, following the implementation of a consumption tax early last year.99 Japanese consumers
should receive another boost in the months ahead as nominal wage growth in April 2015 was at its
highest since 2005; and a second sales tax increase scheduled for October 2015 was postponed until
April 2017. Following zero net growth in 2014, real GDP is expected to average 1.1 per cent in 2015
before accelerating to 1.7 per cent in 2016. Downside risks in Japan include limitations to potential
growth stemming from the shrinking of the working age population, along with persistently low rates
of inflation – which is expected to remain below the 2.0 per cent target through 2017.
Emerging Economies
Economic growth across EMEs has generally decelerated since 2013, after a strong initial recovery
following the global financial crisis of 2008-09. While a cyclical downturn and presently weak levels of
global demand have led to diminished growth potential, a number of other factors have contributed to
disparate performances within the group. Similar to the case of advanced economies, the recent plunge
in oil prices has benefitted oil-importing EMEs and dampened the outlook among exporters. As well,
differences in policies undertaken and the type and magnitude of issues faced by EMEs have made
some more resilient than others.
“…There are important variances in the magnitude of the slowdown across emerging
economies: some countries are experiencing serious economic deterioration (Russia and
Venezuela); some economies are suffering cyclical slowdowns in addition to long-standing
structural issues (Argentina, Brazil, Malaysia); and others have shown resiliency, having
implemented sensible macroeconomic policies within a structural reform agenda to boost
their growth potential (India and Mexico).” 100
Other issues contributing to short-term volatility across most EMEs include currency depreciation and
capital outflow driven by the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy and the Federal
Reserve’s impending decision to raise its key interest rate above the current near-zero range.
“Typically, capital investment tends to flow into countries with higher rates of economic
growth, and portfolio investment is likely to seek markets that offer higher returns, as we
witnessed before the global financial crisis. While many emerging economies still grow at a
faster pace and offer higher interest rates than their mature peers, the recent large outflows of
capital and portfolio away from emerging economies suggest a sharp decline in investment
99
TD Economics, Global Outlook: Early Optimism Dented But Pickup Now Underway, June 18, 2015.
100
Conference Board Economics Watch, Emerging Markets View, April 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
49
THE ECONOMY
confidence in emerging economies—a trend that not only weakens these countries’ foreign
exchange reserves and currency value, but also disrupts their financial stability.” 101
Since mid-2014, many currencies across both advanced and emerging economies have depreciated
significantly relative to the U.S. dollar. This trend could be exacerbated by interest rate normalization in
the U.S, which is expected to begin by late 2015. While a weaker currency can reduce the price of
exports and encourage trade, significant and sustained gains are less likely given the prevailing climate
of slow global demand. A weaker currency also contributes to inflation by making imports (including
oil) more costly, and makes a country’s external debt (denominated in U.S. dollars) more expensive to
service.
Percent Change in Selected Currency Values Against US$
June 30 2014 to June 30 2015
Chinese&Renminbi&(Yuan)&
Thai&Baht&
Indian&Rupee&
Singapore&Dollar&
ArgenMne&Peso&
Indonesian&Rupiah&
Canadian&Dollar&
Malaysian&Ringgit&
Mexican&Peso&
Euro&
Turkish&Lira&
Brazilian&Real&
Russian&Ruble& !38.8%&
!45%&
!0.1%&
!4.0%&
!5.7%&
!7.5%&
!10.4%&
!10.7%&
!13.8%&
!15.1%&
!17.1%&
!18.3%&
!21.4%&
!29.9%&
!35%&
!25%&
!15%&
!5%&
Source: Bank of Canada, Currency Converter
Another factor that dampened the outlook was a precipitous drop in China’s Shanghai stock exchange,
which in mid-July had fallen in value by more than 30 per cent since early June, after having risen by
more than 150 per cent over the past year.102 While the Chinese government quickly and aggressively
intervened in an attempt to prevent further decline,103 the collapse induced downward pressure on
global commodity prices, adversely affecting oil-exporting economies such as Canada. Forecasters fear
101
Ibid.
102
TD Economics, Observation: China Takes Heavy-Hand to Settle Market, July 9, 2015.
103
The Guardian, Why China’s stock market bubble was always bound to burst, July 16, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
50
THE ECONOMY
that the turbulence in China, now the second largest economy in the world, will amplify already
elevated levels of global economic uncertainty through trade, investment, and financial channels.104
Overall, EMEs as a group are forecast to post real GDP growth of about 4.4 per cent in 2015, down
from 5.1 and 4.6 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively.105 In tandem with improved global demand
prospects, growth in EMEs is expected to average 5.2 and 5.4 per cent in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
U.S. Economic Growth
First quarter 2015 real GDP growth in the U.S. was downwardly revised to -0.2 per cent (annualized)
from an initial report of +0.2 per cent.106 This compares to growth of 2.2 per cent (annualized) in the
fourth quarter of 2014 to finish the year at an average of 2.4 per cent. The first quarter output
contraction was largely the result of positive contributions from personal consumption expenditure,
inventory investment, and residential fixed investment being outweighed by drag related to trade,
nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, along with winter storms and
a West Coast port strike.
Despite the poor first quarter performance, depressed investment outlook and minimal rate of consumer
price inflation in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to introduce a gradual monetary
tightening cycle before the end of 2015. Motivated primarily by a rapidly improving labour market, a
move away from the current near-zero interest rate range would represent the first rate hike in nearly a
decade. While the rate increase should be generally accommodative (expected to reach just 1.25 per
cent by the end of 2016), the shift in policy could contribute to financial market volatility and apply
additional upward pressure to the U.S. dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, the U.S. dollar has already
appreciated by 15 per cent over the past year, resulting in an estimated 0.75 percentage point reduction
to growth in 2015 through trade channels.107
Looking ahead, forecasters expect the U.S. economy to gain traction through the remainder of 2015 and
into 2016, with real GDP growth averaging 2.2 and 3.1 per cent respectively.108 Over the long-term
horizon, potential GDP growth in the U.S. is expected to settle around a trend rate of about 2.0 per cent.
Consumer Spending
It was widely anticipated that the substantial decline in gasoline prices would encourage consumers in
the U.S. to spend more in other sectors of the economy. However, despite a sharp increase in light truck
and SUV sales, real consumer spending growth increased by just 1.8 per cent (annualized) in the first
104
CNN Money, China’s economy is getting sick. Will it infect America?, July 26, 2015.
105
World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2015.
106
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015, June 24, 2015.
107
World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2015.
108
Conference Board of Canada, U.S. Outlook: Summer 2015, July 21, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
51
THE ECONOMY
quarter of 2015 – a disappointment compared to the 3.0 per cent predicted earlier in the year.109 Instead,
when the price of gasoline fell, the savings rate rose from 4.5 per cent in November of last year to 5.6
per cent in April.
Consumers in the U.S. may be reluctant to immediately spend the windfall they received from cheaper
gasoline due to weak household balance sheets and diminished expectations for future income growth.
Further, the savings to households from lower pump prices are small at first but accrue over time,
resulting in a delayed spending reaction.
“The longer that gasoline prices remain well below last year’s peak levels, households
become increasingly more confident that net savings will be permanently enjoyed, causing
them to reallocate spending to other areas. … Looking back to the mid-1980s, energy prices
fell 20% through the end of 1986, but real spending did not really accelerate until roughly a
year later.” 110
While the weak first quarter will subtract from overall consumer-driven growth this year, forecasters
expect the rate of consumer spending to accelerate to above 3.0 per cent (annualized) through the
remaining quarters of 2015 – motivated by consistent job and wage growth along with low borrowing
costs and energy prices.111
Investment
While oil prices began their decline in mid-2014, drag related to reduced investment in the U.S. oil and
gas sector did not materialize substantially until the first quarter of 2015, as reflected by a significant
drop in the active rig count. The slowdown in oil and gas holds important implications for the U.S.
economy, as the high-growth industry accounted for 27 per cent of all new capital raised between 2009
and 2013.112 The rapid decline in oil sector investment directly subtracted 0.5 percentage points from
economic growth in the first quarter of the year and a similar result is expected in the second quarter. 113
Although the oil and gas rig count in the U.S. appears to have stabilized in recent weeks, forecasters are
not optimistic regarding the near-term outlook for investment in the sector. For many producers, current
oil prices remain close to or beneath the breakeven threshold for new projects. Further, drilling
investment typically follows oil price fluctuations with a two-quarter lag, implying that even if oil
prices were to recover, it might be a six-month wait before increased investment was observed.
109
Conference Board Economics Watch, US View, June 22, 2015.
110
TD Economics, U.S. Outlook: Getting Better (Seriously), June 18, 2015.
111
Conference Board Economics Watch, US View, June 22, 2015.
112
Deloitte, Following the capital trail in oil and gas, April 10, 2015.
113
TD Economics, U.S. Outlook: Getting Better (Seriously), June 18, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
52
THE ECONOMY
Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in U.S. Drilling Investment (2 Quarter Lag)
and WTI Price, Actual and Forecast, 1995 to 2016
Q1%15%
Q1%13%
WTI%Forecast%
Q1%11%
Q1%09%
WTI%Price%
Q1%07%
Q1%05%
Q1%03%
Q1%01%
Q1%99%
Q1%97%
140%%
120%%
100%%
80%%
60%%
40%%
20%%
0%%
!20%%
!40%%
!60%%
!80%%
Q1%95%
Drilling%Investment%(2%Quarter%Lag)%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, TD Economics
The investment outlook across other sectors of the U.S. economy also remains muted due to cuts in oil
support sectors, a lack of productivity growth, significant inventory overhangs, disappointing consumer
demand, a strong dollar impeding exports, global uncertainty, and an impending rise in both borrowing
costs and wages.114
Labour Market
A strengthening labour market has been one of the brightest spots of the U.S. economy so far in 2015.
In June, the aggregate unemployment rate dropped to 5.3 per cent – its lowest level since April 2008. 115
Monthly job growth has dipped from 2014’s average of about 260,000, but forecasters are optimistic
that 2015’s current trend of just over 200,000 will be sufficient to continue to reduce the unemployment
rate.
114
Conference Board Economics Watch, US View, June 22, 2015.
115
Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation – June 2015, July 2, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
53
THE ECONOMY
Change in U.S. Total Non-farm Employment, Monthly and 12-Month Average
Unemployment Rate, 2011 to 2015
Monthly"Employment"Change"
12/Month"Trend"Employment"Change"
10"
9"
8"
7"
6"
5"
/1
5"
/1
4"
Ja
n
Ju
l
/1
4"
Ja
n
/1
3"
Ju
l
/1
3"
Ja
n
/1
2"
Ju
l
/1
2"
Ja
n
/1
1"
4"
Ju
l
Ja
n
Unemployment*Rate*(%)*
450"
400"
350"
300"
250"
200"
150"
100"
50"
0"
/1
1"
Monthly*Employment*Change*
(thousands)*
Unemployment"Rate"
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Along with strong job growth, another reason the unemployment rate has declined so rapidly is a
persistently low rate of labour force participation among the prime working-age population. In June,
the participation rate fell to 62.6 per cent – a nearly 40-year low.116 While the proportion of discouraged
workers in the U.S. labour market has declined since 2011, a growing share of those aged 25 to 54 are
exiting the labour force and claim to not be pursuing employment.117
Demographic factors have also contributed to a contraction in the size of the U.S. labour force, with a
monthly decline of about 430,000 registered in both May and June of this year.118 The number of new
retirements has surged over the past decade – a trend that is expected to continue as more members of
the “baby boom” cohort approach retirement age. This is related to the issue of an aging labour force, a
scenario that most advanced economies, including Canada, will soon have to address.
116
Ibid.
117
The Conference Board, Faster Than Expected: The US Labor Market Continues to Tighten, July 2015.
118
Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation – June 2015, July 2, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
54
THE ECONOMY
Annual Change in the Number of Retirees in the U.S. (3-Year Moving Average)
2004 to 2014
1,200"
1,000"
800"
600"
400"
2012)14"
2011)13"
2010)12"
2009)11"
2008)10"
2007)09"
2006)08"
0"
2005)07"
200"
2004)06"
New$Re&rees$(thousands)$
1,400"
Source: The Conference Board, U.S. Census Bureau
A slowdown in labour productivity growth has also encouraged greater-than-expected employment
gains. Over the past five years, labour productivity in the U.S. economy increased at an average annual
pace of just 0.6 per cent and in the past two quarters turned negative, comparing unfavourably to the
2.0 to 4.0 per cent range in the decade prior to the Great Recession. In the prevailing climate of very
low productivity growth, employers have compensated by hiring additional workers.
“What are the reasons for the slowdown in labor productivity? They include supply side
factors such as lack of investment in technology and innovation and demand factors arising
from weak consumption and investment following the Great Recession.” 119
While sustained wage growth has yet to materialize, indicators such as a higher quit rate and a rising
proportion of firms reporting skilled worker shortages suggest that U.S. labour markets are continuing
to tighten and should soon be reflected by faster increases in worker remuneration.120 Walmart’s
announcement that it would raise wages for hourly employees, along with recently introduced
minimum wage legislation in Seattle, Los Angeles and New York are signals that should eventually
lead to aggregate wage growth. With a diminished investment outlook, income growth is critical in
stimulating consumption spending and boosting the housing sector to drive the U.S. economy.
119
The Conference Board, Faster Than Expected: The US Labor Market Continues to Tighten, July 2015.
120
Conference Board Economics Watch, US View, May 22, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
55
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
This section examines labour market information for the Calgary Region,
Alberta and Canada.
Labour Market
Review
Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)
Employment*
Employment
Following 13 consecutive months of net job growth (including month-over-month gains of 6,300 net
new positions in April 2015 and 1,900 in May
2015), employment in the Calgary CMA
Employment*in*the*Calgary*CMA*
declined by 3,200 to 824,900 in June 2015.
!840,000!!
Overall, employment in the Calgary CMA
!820,000!!
increased by 8,500 or 1.0 per cent on a
!800,000!!
!780,000!!
quarterly basis in the second quarter of the year,
!760,000!!
following a gain of 11,700 in the first quarter of
!740,000!!
2015.
Jan,15!
Apr,15!
Jul,14!
Jan,14!
Apr,14!
Jul,13!
Oct,13!
Jan,13!
Apr,13!
Jul,12!
Oct,12!
Jan,12!
Apr,12!
Jul,11!
Oct,11!
Jan,11!
Apr,11!
!700,000!!
“Strong service-side employment growth
!680,000!!
over the past two months [April and May] has
far exceeded losses in most goods-producing
industries. As such, Calgary may be on track
to outperform expectations of only minimal
jobs growth for 2015—although some economic forecasters suggest that the full impact of
low oil prices is more likely to be felt in the coming months.” 121
Oct,14!
!720,000!!
Labour Force Survey Statistics - Calgary CMA
Calgary CMA
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Population
Quarterly
Change
Q2 2014
1,171,200
1,173,900
1,177,000
1,174,000
1,166,100
7,900
1,138,800
35,200
Labour Force
872,500
876,400
876,300
875,100
860,600
14,500
836,900
38,200
Employed
826,200
828,100
824,900
826,400
817,900
8,500
791,800
34,600
Unemployed
46,400
48,300
51,400
48,700
42,700
6,000
45,100
3,600
Participation Rate
74.5%
74.7%
74.5%
74.5%
73.8%
0.7%
73.5%
1.0%
Employment Rate
70.5%
70.5%
70.1%
70.4%
70.1%
0.3%
69.5%
0.9%
5.3%
5.5%
5.9%
5.6%
5.0%
0.6%
5.4%
0.2%
Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0135, Labour Force Survey, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted
121
Annual
Change
Employment and Social Development Canada, Labour Market Bulletin - Alberta: May 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
56
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
On an annual basis, employment in the Calgary CMA rose by 34,600 or 4.1 per cent in the second
quarter of 2015. The most significant year-overyear employment gains were in health care and
Annual&Change&in&Employment&by&Industry&
Calgary&CMA&!&Q2&2015&
social assistance (+16,300), transportation and
16,300&
Health&care&&&social&assistance&
warehousing (+16,100), information, culture
16,100&
TransportaHon&&&warehousing&
6,900&
InformaHon,&culture&&&recreaHon&
and recreation (+6,900) and public
4,700&
Public&administraHon&
3,700&
AccommodaHon&&&food&services&
administration (+4,700). Employment declined
2,900&
EducaHonal&services&
2,300&
Trade&
in mining and oil and gas (-6,500), finance,
1,800&
UHliHes&
1,100&
Other&services&
insurance, real estate and leasing (-5,400),
400&
Manufacturing&
!2,300&
ConstrucHon&
business, building and other support services
Prof.,&scienHfic&&&tech.&services& !4,500&
Bus.,&bldg.&&&other&support&services& !5,300&
(-5,300), professional, scientific and technical
Fin.,&insurance,&real&est.&&&leasing& !5,400&
Forestry,&fishing,&mining,&oil&&&gas&!6,500&
services (-4,500) and construction year-over!10,000&
0&
10,000&
20,000&
year.122
Overall, the Conference Board of Canada is
forecasting employment in the Calgary CMA to increase by only 0.4 per cent in 2015, translating into
approximately 3,000 net new jobs.123 Calgary’s services-producing sector is forecast to lead
employment growth this year (+2.9 per cent). Significant growth in public administration (+14.2 per
cent), transportation and warehousing (+10.4 per cent) and information and cultural industries (+8.2 per
cent) is projected to be partially offset by employment losses in finance, insurance and real estate (-4.2
per cent) and personal services industries (-2.9 per cent).
Employment in Calgary’s goods-producing sector is projected to decline by 6.9 per cent in 2015.
Construction employment is forecast to decrease by 9.1 per cent, while employment in the primary and
utilities industry and manufacturing industry is expected to decline by 8.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent
respectively.124
“Lower oil prices and a weak economy will lead to softer employment growth this year.
Indeed, goods sector employment is expected to fall by 6.9 per cent in 2015, its largest
decline since 2009. However, decent job growth in the services industry should help partly
offset this dip. As a result, overall employment in Calgary is still projected to advance this
year, albeit by a meagre 0.4 per cent.” 125
122
Statistics Canada. Table 282-0130.
123
The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook1, Spring 2015.
124
Ibid.
125
Ibid, p.5.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
57
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Unemployment
Calgary’s unemployment rate jumped from 5.3 per cent in April 2015 to 5.9 per cent in June 2015,
averaging 5.6 per cent for the quarter. This is up significantly from 5.0 per cent in the first quarter of
2015 and up from 5.4 per cent year-over-year.
“Estimates for sector specific unemployment rates are mixed. The goods-producing sector
continues to be hard hit, while the services-producing sector has fared much better.” 126
The number of unemployed people in the Calgary CMA averaged 48,700 in the second quarter of 2015,
up by 6,000 from the previous quarter and by 3,600 year-over-year. Calgary’s unemployment rate is
forecast to average 6.0 per cent in 2015, up from 5.1 per cent in 2014.127
Calgary had the fourth lowest unemployment rate among major metropolitan areas in the second
quarter of 2015. Regina and Quebec posted the lowest unemployment rates in the second quarter at 4.4
per cent, while Windsor had the highest unemployment rate at 10.5 per cent.
Unemployment Rates of Canadian Cities (CMAs) - Q2 2015
Unemployment*Rate*(%)*
12.0#
10.5#
10.0#
8.0#
6.0#
4.4# 4.4#
6.7# 6.8# 7.1#
6.1# 6.1# 6.4#
6.0#
6.0#
5.3# 5.6#
7.6#
8.2#
4.0#
2.0#
Re
gi
Qu na#
e
Sa b e
sk c#
at
oo
Ca n #
lga
Vi ry#
ct
Ed or
m i a#
o
Va nto
nc n#
ou
W ve
in r#
n
OJ S i p e
t
aw .#J g#
aL o h n
Ga 's
Nn #
ea
Ha u#
li
To fax#
r
S a on t
i n o#
t#J
M oh n
on #
tr
W eal
in #
ds
or
#
0.0#
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0135.
126
City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, June 2015 Labour Market Review, July 10, 2015.
127
The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook1, Spring 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
58
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Alberta
Employment
Employment in Alberta slipped in May (-6,400) and June (-5,000), following a significant gain of
12,500 net new jobs in April 2015. Overall in the second quarter of 2015, employment in the province
was up a modest 2,900 or 0.1 per cent compared to the previous quarter.
“Low oil prices remain a significant challenge for Alberta’s economy. While overall
employment has remained fairly stable over the past two quarters, growth has slowed
markedly. At the same time, the province’s job vacancy rate has fallen and wage growth
edged downwards, offering further evidence that Alberta’s labour markets are being impacted
by economic uncertainty. Looking forward, some observers suggest that employment is likely
to decrease in the second half of the year, given that employment tends to lag other
indicators. Indeed, the Conference Board of Canada predicts that provincial employment will
increase by only 0.6% this year—by far the weakest growth since the last recession.” 128
Year-over-year, employment in Alberta increased by 38,200 or 1.7 per cent in the second quarter of
2015, representing approximately one-quarter of the new jobs created nationally.
Labour Force Statistics - Alberta
Quarterly
Change
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Population
3,338,500
3,345,400
3,354,000
3,346,000
3,327,800
18,200
3,273,600
72,400
Labour Force
2,448,300
2,448,500
2,441,500
2,446,100
2,428,900
17,200
2,385,500
60,600
2,313,900
2,307,500
2,302,500
2,308,000
2,305,100
2,900
2,269,800
38,200
134,400
141,100
139,100
138,200
123,900
14,300
115,700
22,500
Participation Rate
73.3%
73.2%
72.8%
73.1%
73.0%
0.1%
72.9%
0.2%
Employment Rate
69.3%
69.0%
68.6%
69.0%
69.3%
-0.3%
69.3%
-0.3%
5.5%
5.8%
5.7%
5.6%
5.1%
0.5%
4.9%
0.8%
Employed
Unemployed
Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
128
Annual
Change
Alberta
Employment and Social Development Canada, Labour Market Bulletin - Alberta: June 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Q2 2014
59
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Among Alberta’s seven major economic regions, Lethbridge-Medicine Hat and Calgary were the only
two regions to record notable annual
employment gains in the second quarter of
Change'in'Employment'by'Economic'Region'in''Alberta'
Q2'2014'to'Q2'2015'(year<over<year'per'cent'change)'
2015. Employment growth was minimal in the
Edmonton region (+0.7 per cent), while
Lethbridge&!&Medicine&Hat&
8.5%&
employment declined in Red Deer (-4.2 per
3.7%&
Calgary&
cent), Banff-Athabasca (-2.4 per cent),
0.7%&
Edmonton&
Camrose-Drumheller (-2.2 per cent) and Wood
Wood&Buffalo!Cold&Lake&
!1.2%&
Buffalo-Cold Lake (-1.2 per cent).129
Camrose&!&Drumheller&
!2.2%&
“Lethbridge—Medicine Hat had the highest
!2.4%&
Banff!Athabasca&
rate of annual employment growth (+8.5%),
Red&Deer& !4.2%&
with 11,600 more people working this
!6.0%& !4.0%& !2.0%& 0.0%& 2.0%& 4.0%& 6.0%& 8.0%& 10.0%&
quarter. These strong results are somewhat
surprising, amid high-profile closures and
layoffs at oilfield services companies operating in there. Looking at the two major centres in
the southern region, the Conference Board of Canada predicts that Medicine Hat will be
harder hit by the downturn in the energy sector, while Lethbridge will continue to see stable
growth.” 130
The number of part-time jobs in Alberta increased by 12,500 or 3.3 per cent quarter-over-quarter in the
second quarter of 2015. Full-time employment declined by 9,700 (or -0.5 per cent) over the same
period. On a year-over-year basis, part-time employment grew at a much faster pace (+3.7 per cent)
than full-time employment (1.3 per cent) in the second quarter of 2015.
Women accounted for virtually all of the employment increase on a quarterly basis in the second
quarter of 2015 (+2,700). Since the second quarter of 2014, employment for men increased by 23,000
or 1.8 per cent, while employment for women rose by 15,200 or 1.5 per cent.
129
Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey – CANSIM Table 282-0122, seasonally unadjusted.
130
Employment and Social Development Canada, Labour Market Bulletin Alberta: June 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
60
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Employment growth was the strongest for Albertans aged 55 years and older on both a quarterly (+2.9
per cent) and yearly basis (+4.7 per cent) in the
Annual)Employment)Growth)for)Youth)(aged)15%24))
second quarter of 2015. Alberta youth aged 15 Canada)and)Provinces)Q2)2015)
24 years also posted solid growth year-overNL&
9.0%&
year, with employment increasing by an
AB&
4.5%&
NS&
2.5%&
average of 14,200 or 4.5 per cent. This was the
Canada&
0.4%&
second highest growth rate among provinces,
QC&
0.1%&
ON&
0.0%&
after Newfoundland and Labrador (+9.0 per
SK&
!0.3%&
cent), and significantly higher than the national
BC&
!1.2%&
NB&
!1.5%&
average of 0.4 per cent.
MN&
!2.1%&
PE& !7.1%&
“The fact that Canada’s two largest oil
!8.0%& !6.0%& !4.0%& !2.0%& 0.0%& 2.0%& 4.0%& 6.0%&
producing provinces—Alberta and
Year%over%year)%)change)
Newfoundland and Labrador—saw the best
improvements in youth employment is a bit of
a puzzle. Why should it be easier for them to find work when their provincial economies are
struggling? Part of the answer might lie in the fact that comparatively few 15 to 24 year-olds
are employed in oil and gas extraction or in the professional occupations involved in the
petroleum sector—the two categories of jobs that have been hit the hardest in the downturn.
Disproportionately more young people work in the food and accommodation sector, which in
Alberta has added 13,300 new jobs (+9.2 per cent) over the last year.” 131
8.0%& 10.0%&
Employment by Type of Work, Gender and Age - Alberta
Quarterly
Change
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Employment
2,308,000
2,305,100
2,900
2,269,800
38,200
Full-time
1,914,000
1,923,700
-9,700
1,889,800
24,200
Part-time
Q2 2014
Annual
Change
Alberta
393,900
381,400
12,500
380,000
13,900
Men
1,269,300
1,269,100
200
1,246,300
23,000
Women
1,038,700
1,036,000
2,700
1,023,500
15,200
15 - 24 years
328,300
323,200
5,100
314,100
14,200
25 - 54 years
1,547,100
1,561,500
-14,400
1,542,600
4,500
432,600
420,400
12,200
413,100
19,500
55 years +
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
Employment in Alberta’s goods-producing sector declined by 16,900 net jobs in the second quarter of
2015, compared to the previous quarter, led by losses in forestry, fishing, mining and oil and gas
(-7,000 or -4.2 per cent), manufacturing (-5,700 or -3.9 per cent), construction (-4,400 or -1.7 per cent)
and agriculture (-900 or -1.4 per cent). Alberta’s utilities industry was the only industry to post an
increase in employment on a quarterly basis (+1,200 or +6.1 per cent).
131
ATB Financial, The Owl, Youth employment in Alberta better than most, Todd Hirsch, July 24, 2015.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
61
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Year-over-year, employment in the goods-producing sector was down by 9,200 (or -1.4 per cent) in the
second quarter, led by a 10.3 per cent decrease (-18,500 net jobs) in the forestry, finishing, mining and
oil and gas industry.
“Alberta’s resource extraction industries registered the largest employment declines on both
an annual (-18,500) and quarterly (-7,000) basis. A majority of these losses occurred in oil
and gas support services, which reflects lower conventional drilling activity, along with
pressure from producers to cut costs. After climbing significantly in April, benchmark crude
oil prices hovered around $60 US per barrel through most of May and June. The slump in oil
prices has caused Alberta energy producers to dramatically cut capital spending and seek
operational efficiencies. Several firms have also announced delays to multi-billion dollar oil
sands projects, which is likely to impact long-term production levels and construction
activity.” 132
Employment in Alberta’s services-producing sector rose by 19,800 or 1.2 per cent in the second quarter
of 2015 relative to the previous quarter. The most notable employment gains were in trade (+8,700),
educational services (+6,900), health care and social assistance (+4,900) and public administration
(+4,700). Five services-producing industries posted employment losses on a quarterly basis, including
professional, scientific and technical services (-3,000 or -1.7 per cent) and transportation and
warehousing (-2,800 or -1.9 per cent).
Year-over-year, the services-producing sector in
Alberta added 47,400 net jobs, an increase of
2.9 per cent. Six of eleven industries in the
sector posted annual gains, led by health care
and social assistance (+27,900), transportation
and warehousing (+19,100) and educational
services (+16,300). Employment in the
professional, scientific and technical services
industry declined by 14,400 or -7.8 per cent
year-over-year in the second quarter of 2015.
Annual&Change&in&Employment&by&Industry&
Alberta&7&Q2&2015&
Health'care'&'social'assistance'
TransportaBon'&'warehousing'
EducaBonal'services'
AccommodaBon'&'food'services'
ConstrucBon'
Agriculture'
UBliBes'
Public'administraBon'
Fin.,'insurance,'real'estate'&'leasing'
Bus.,'bldg.'&'other'support'services'
Manufacturing'
InformaBon,'culture'&'recreaBon'
Other'services'
Trade'
Prof.,'scienBfic'&'tech.'services'
Forestry,'fishing,'mining,'oil'&'gas'
27,900'
19,100'
16,300'
7,200'
4,700'
3,800'
2,400'
2,300'
400'
!600'
!1,500'
!2,200'
!2,700'
!5,800'
!14,400'
!18,500'
!40,000' !20,000'
0'
“...the professional, scientific and technical
services industry employed fewer individuals
(-3,000) for a third consecutive quarter. Besides resource extraction, this industry has
experienced the largest decline in annual employment (-14,400), with low oil prices reducing
demand for these specialized services.” 133
132
Employment and Social Development Canada, Labour Market Bulletin Alberta: June 2015.
133
Ibid.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
20,000'
40,000'
62
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Employment by Industry - Alberta
Alberta
All Industries
Agriculture
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil & gas
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation & warehousing
Finance, insurance, real estate & leasing
Professional, scientific & technical services
Business, building & other support services
Educational services
Health care & social assistance
Information, culture & recreation
Accommodation & food services
Other services
Public administration
Q2 2015
2,308,000
64,500
161,200
20,800
259,600
139,200
316,200
145,000
105,000
170,300
81,100
137,100
264,900
72,800
155,900
121,300
93,200
Q1 2015
2,305,100
65,400
168,200
19,600
264,000
144,900
307,500
147,800
101,600
173,300
82,000
130,200
260,000
71,700
156,800
123,500
88,500
Quarterly
Change
2,900
-900
-7,000
1,200
-4,400
-5,700
8,700
-2,800
3,400
-3,000
-900
6,900
4,900
1,100
-900
-2,200
4,700
Q2 2014
2,269,800
60,700
179,700
18,400
254,900
140,700
322,000
125,900
104,600
184,700
81,700
120,800
237,000
75,000
148,700
124,000
90,900
Annual
Change
38,200
3,800
-18,500
2,400
4,700
-1,500
-5,800
19,100
400
-14,400
-600
16,300
27,900
-2,200
7,200
-2,700
2,300
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820088, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
Looking ahead, employment growth in Alberta is forecast to average between 0.3 and 1.2 per cent in
2015 and between 0.2 and 0.9 per cent in 2016.134
Unemployment
The number of unemployed people in Alberta averaged 138,200 in the second quarter of 2015, an
increase of 14,300 from the previous quarter and up by 22,500 year-over-year. The province’s
unemployment rate rose to an average of 5.6 per cent this quarter, up from 5.1 per cent the previous
quarter and 4.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2014.
Among economic regions in Alberta, the Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake region had the highest average
unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2015 at 8.2 per cent, double the employment rate recorded
in the second quarter of 2014 (4.1 per cent). In addition, Red Deer’s unemployment rate reached 7.0 per
cent in the second quarter, up from 2.6 per cent year-over-year. The Camrose-Drumheller region had
the lowest unemployment rate among Alberta’s economic regions in the second quarter of 2015 at 3.6
per cent, up slightly from 3.4 per cent a year earlier.
Alberta’s unemployment rate is forecast to average between 5.7 and 6.0 per cent in 2015 and between
5.3 and 6.5 per cent in 2016.135
134
RBC Economics, Provincial Outlook, June 2015, TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast July 2015, BMO
Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, August 2015, Scotia Economics, Global Forecast Update, July 2015.
135
Ibid.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
63
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Average'weeks'of'unemployment'
The average duration of unemployment in Alberta increased to 15.1 weeks in June 2015, from 13.7
weeks the previous month and 13.6 weeks yearover-year. At the national level, the average
Dura5on'of'Unemployment,'Canada'and'Alberta'
length of unemployment climbed to 18.9 weeks
Canada"
Alberta"
in June, from 17.3 weeks in May 2015 and 17.4
22"
weeks in June 2014. Alberta had the lowest
20"
18"
average duration of unemployment in June
16"
14"
2015, followed by Saskatchewan (15.2 weeks)
12"
10"
and Manitoba (15.7 weeks). Quebec recorded
8"
6"
the highest figure at 22.0 weeks.136
4"
2"
Jan+15"
Jul+14"
Jan+14"
Jul+13"
Jan+13"
Jul+12"
Jan+12"
Jul+11"
Jan+11"
Jul+10"
Jan+10"
Jul+09"
Jan+09"
0"
The number of long-term unemployed in
Alberta (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
declined to 16,100 in June 2015, from 16,700 in
June 2014, and accounted for 12 per cent of the
total unemployed in the province. Nationally, the number of long-term unemployed (257,400) made up
20 per cent of the total unemployed. 137
Canada
Employment
Canada’s employment statistics were up and down on a month-to-month basis over the second quarter
of 2015. Employment in Canada fell by 19,700 in April, rose by 58,900 in May and declined by 6,400
in June. Overall, the Canadian economy added an average of 36,200 net jobs in the second quarter of
2015, compared to the previous quarter.
“From a monetary policy perspective, this number [-6,400] doesn't change anything: the
labour market in Canada is performing well this year, and it's hard to argue that the economy
is in a dire state on the basis of labour data — on the contrary, the labour data looks pretty
good.” 138
On a year-over-year basis, employment in Canada increased by 169,100 or 1.0 per cent in the second
quarter of 2015.
“Employment up 1% from a year ago, the unemployment rate down 2 ticks from a year ago,
and total hours worked up 2.1% y/y. Recession? Don’t think so.” 139
136
Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0047.
137
Ibid.
138
ScotiaBank, Global Economics, ScotiaFlash, Canadian Labour Market Holding In, July 10, 2015.
139
BMO Financial Group, econoFACTS, Cdn. Employment Report — June, Cure for Summertime Blues? Full-Time Jobs!,
July 10, 2015, p.2.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
64
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
Labour Force Survey Statistics - Canada
Canada
Population
Labour Force
Employed
Unemployed
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
29,208,200 29,232,100 29,266,500
19,205,100 19,261,300 19,251,300
17,894,900 17,953,800 17,947,400
1,310,200 1,307,600 1,303,900
Q2 2015
29,235,600
19,239,200
17,932,000
1,307,200
Q1 2015
29,161,100
19,190,000
17,895,800
1,294,200
Quarterly
Change
74,500
49,200
36,200
13,000
Q2 2014
28,942,800
19,098,300
17,762,900
1,335,400
Annual
Change
292,800
140,900
169,100
-28,200
Participation Rate
65.8%
65.9%
65.8%
65.8%
65.8%
0.0%
66.0%
-0.2%
Employment Rate
61.3%
61.4%
61.3%
61.3%
61.4%
-0.1%
61.4%
-0.1%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.7%
0.1%
7.0%
-0.2%
Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
The majority of forecasters project moderate employment growth of 1.0 per cent or less for Canada
over the next two years. TD Economics is forecasting
employment in Canada to increase by 0.7 per cent this year, led
by growth in Manitoba (1.6 per cent), Ontario (0.9 per cent) and
Quebec (0.9 per cent). In 2016, employment is projected to
increase by 0.8 per cent, led by growth in British Columbia (0.9
per cent) and Manitoba (0.8 per cent). Employment growth is
forecast to be weak in Atlantic Canada this year, with
employment projected to decline in Newfoundland and Labrador
for a third consecutive year in 2016.
“Labour markets in Atlantic Canada have been struggling this
year with total employment in the region down 0.7% in the yearto-May. Only Nova Scotia has been able to keep its head above
water in 2015, albeit only slightly, with all three other provinces
recording reductions. This is not a new challenge for the region.
Aggregate employment in the region has been on the decline since 2012, reflecting less
favourable demographics. Indeed, Atlantic Canada’s population has also been falling since
2012, dragging the labour force down along with it. As such, unemployment rates have held
relatively steady in recent years – masking these underlying challenges. On a positive note,
we see a return to net positive job creation in the Atlantic region in 2016, as hiring picks up in
all provinces with the sole exception of Newfoundland and Labrador.” 140
Full-time employment in Canada rose by 81,600 net new positions on a quarterly basis in the second
quarter of 2015, offset by losses of 45,400 in part-time positions. Year-over year, full-time employment
increased by 210,800, while part-time employment declined by 41,600. This is positive as the
distribution of part-time/full-time employment is one of the most popular measures of employment
140
TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, July 9, 2015, p.6.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
65
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
quality. According to CIBC Economics, the number of part-time jobs in
Canada has risen faster than the number of full-time jobs since the late
1980s, contributing to the downward trend in its Employment Quality
Index.
“...our measure of employment quality has been on a clear downward
trajectory over the past 25 years. While the pace of the declaration has
slowed in recent years, the level of quality, as measured by our index,
is currently at a record low—15% below the rate seen in the early
1990s and 10% below the level seen in the early 2000s. On a yearover-year basis, the index is down by 1.8%. [...] The good news is that
for the past year, the number of full-time jobs rose twice as fast as the
number of part-time jobs—a factor that worked to offset some of the recent softening in our
index.” 141
Employment by Type of Work, Gender and Age - Canada
Quarterly
Change
36,200
Q2 2014
17,762,900
Annual
Change
169,100
14,467,500
81,600
14,338,300
210,800
3,428,400
-45,400
3,424,600
-41,600
9,417,700
9,387,600
30,100
9,289,000
128,700
Women
8,514,400
8,508,200
6,200
8,473,900
40,500
15 - 24 years
2,485,200
2,494,300
-9,100
2,474,400
10,800
25 - 54 years
11,882,400
11,871,800
10,600
11,794,600
87,800
3,564,400
3,529,700
34,700
3,494,000
70,400
Canada
Employment
Q2 2015
17,932,000
Q1 2015
17,895,800
Full-time
14,549,100
Part-time
3,383,000
Men
55 years +
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
Men accounted for the majority of the job gains on a quarterly basis in the second quarter, as the
number of men employed in Canada increased by 30,100 or 0.3 per cent. Year-over-year, employment
growth for men (+1.4 per cent) outpaced employment growth for women (+0.5 per cent) in the second
quarter of 2015.
Employment growth was the strongest for Canadians aged 55 years and older in the second quarter of
2015, increasing by 34,700 or 1.0 per cent on a quarterly basis. Employment for youth aged 15 - 24
years declined by 9,100 or 0.4 per cent on the quarter. On an annual basis, employment rose in all three
major age categories in the second quarter, with the majority of gains concentrated in the 55 years and
older (+70,400 or +2.0 per cent) and 25 - 54 years age categories (+87,800 or +0.7 per cent).
On a quarterly basis, Canada’s services-producing sector added 64,500 net jobs in the second quarter of
2015, led by gains in health care and social assistance (+23,100 or +1.0 per cent), transportation and
warehousing (+20,300 or +2.2 per cent) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+16,700 or +1.5
141
CIBC Economics, Canadian Employment Quality Index, March 5, 2015, p.1-2.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
66
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
per cent). In contrast, employment in Canada’s goods producing sector declined by 28,200, led by a
loss of 31,800 construction jobs (forestry, fishing, mining and oil and gas) and 8,500 agriculture jobs.
Canada’s manufacturing sector added 14,100 net new jobs on the quarter.
Year-over-year, employment increased by
Annual&Change&in&Employment&by&Industry&
70,400 in health care and social assistance and
Canada&7&Q2&2015&
70,400&
Health&care&&&social&assistance&
by 56,000 in educational services, accounting
56,000&
Educa=onal&services&
31,800&
Fin.,&insurance,&real&est.&&&leasing&
for three-quarters of the net new jobs in Canada
27,800&
Transporta=on&&&warehousing&
25,700&
Professional,&scien=fic&&&technical&
in the second quarter of 2015. Employment
25,500&
Accommoda=on&&&food&services&
18,400&
Bus.,&bldg.&&&other&support&services&
gains were also significant in finance,
14,200&
Construc=on&
8,000&
Trade&
insurance, real estate and leasing (+31,800 or
2,600&
Manufacturing&
1,400&
U=li=es&
+3.0 per cent), transportation and warehousing
!13,900&
Forestry,&fishing,&mining,&oil&&&gas&
!14,700&
Agriculture&
(+27,800 or +3.1 per cent), professional,
!16,500&
Public&administra=on&
!22,200&
Informa=on,&culture&&&recrea=on&
scientific and technical services (+25,700 or
Other&services& !45,400&
+1.9 per cent) and accommodation and food
!75,000&!50,000&!25,000& 0&
25,000& 50,000& 75,000&
services (+25,500 or +2.1 per cent). Five
industries recorded annual employment losses in
the second quarter of 2015. Other services experienced the greatest loss (-45,400), followed by
information, culture and recreation (-22,200), public administration (-16,500), agriculture (-14,700) and
forestry, fishing, mining and oil and gas (-13,900).
Employment by Industry - Canada
Canada
All Industries
Agriculture
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil & gas
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation & warehousing
Finance, insurance, real estate & leasing
Professional, scientific & technical services
Business, building & other support services
Educational services
Health care & social assistance
Information, culture & recreation
Accommodation & food services
Other services
Public administration
Q2 2015
17,932,000
293,200
356,800
139,000
1,367,700
1,710,600
2,735,100
926,400
1,109,200
1,354,800
760,700
1,284,900
2,284,600
741,500
1,220,100
758,300
889,100
Q1 2015
17,895,800
301,700
359,500
138,300
1,399,500
1,696,500
2,726,200
906,100
1,092,500
1,349,800
750,200
1,276,800
2,261,500
753,800
1,220,400
761,600
901,300
Quarterly
Change
36,200
-8,500
-2,700
700
-31,800
14,100
8,900
20,300
16,700
5,000
10,500
8,100
23,100
-12,300
-300
-3,300
-12,200
Q2 2014
17,762,900
307,900
370,700
137,600
1,353,500
1,708,000
2,727,100
898,600
1,077,400
1,329,100
742,300
1,228,900
2,214,200
763,700
1,194,600
803,700
905,600
Annual
Change
169,100
-14,700
-13,900
1,400
14,200
2,600
8,000
27,800
31,800
25,700
18,400
56,000
70,400
-22,200
25,500
-45,400
-16,500
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820088, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting the Canadian labour market will add about 172,500 net
jobs in 2015, after adding just 111,000 jobs in 2014.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
67
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
“For 2015, the employment outlook is slightly brighter, although some factors will likely act
as a drag on job growth. The slump in oil prices will hurt the natural resources sector, as well
as the construction sector, which is being hit hard by the drop in energy investment. That
could also affect the demand for professional, scientific, and technical workers in oil-rich
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador.” 142
Unemployment
Canada’s unemployment rate averaged 6.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2015, up from 6.7 per cent
the previous quarter but down from 7.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2014.
AB
$
SK
$
N$
M
ON
$
QC
$
NB
$
NS
$
PE
$
$
da
na
Ca
NL
$
6.0%$
Canada’s major banks are projecting the
4.0%$
national unemployment rate to average 6.6 per
2.0%$
to 6.9 per cent in 2015 and 6.3 to 6.7 per cent in
0.0%$
2016. According to RBC’s projections,
Saskatchewan (4.5 per cent), Manitoba (5.1 per
cent) and Alberta (5.3 per cent) are forecast to
post the lowest unemployment rates in 2016,
while the unemployment rate of Newfoundland and Labrador is forecast to reach 13.0 per cent in
2016.143
BC
$
Saskatchewan had the lowest average unemployment rate among provinces in the second quarter of
2015 at 4.6 per cent, followed by Manitoba (5.5
per cent) and Alberta (5.6 per cent).
Unemployment*Rates,*Canada*and*Provinces*
Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest
14.0%$
Q2$2014$ Q2$2015$
unemployment rate in Canada at 12.9 per cent
12.0%$
in the second quarter of 2015, up from 12.1 per
10.0%$
cent the previous year.
8.0%$
Job Vacancies
Employers in Canada had an estimated 243,000 job vacancies in April 2015. With approximately 1.382
million unemployed in the same month, Canada had 5.7 unemployed people for every job vacancy,
down from 6.2 in April 2014.144
142
Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook, Economic Forecast, Spring 2015, p.31.
143
RBC Economics, Provincial Outlook, June 2015, p.12.
144
Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 284-0003.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
68
LABOUR MARKET REVIEW
The western provinces had the lowest ratios of unemployment to job vacancies in April 2015. British
Columbia had the lowest ratio at 3.6
unemployed for every job vacancy, while
Unemployment.to.Job%Vacancies%Ra#o,%Canada%and%
Provinces,%three%month%average%April%2014%and%2015%
Newfoundland and Labrador and New
18.0%
Brunswick had the highest ratio at 15.3
Apr>14%
Apr>15%
15.3% 15.3%
15.0%
unemployed for every job vacancy.
12.0%
Ra#o%
With 34,600 vacancies and 145,000
unemployed in April 2015, Alberta’s ratio was
4.2, up from 2.4 the previous year.
9.6%
9.6%
9.0%
6.7%
6.0%
6.0%
5.7%
4.8%
4.3%
4.2%
3.6%
3.0%
Industry
Mining & oil & gas
Construction
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Real estate & rental & leasing
Manufacturing
Transportation & warehousing
Educational services
Retail trade
Administrative & support services
Other services
Professional, scientific & technical
Wholesale trade
Accommodation & food services
Information & culture
Public administration
Finance & insurance
Health care & social assistance
Apr-14
N/A
9.8
N/A
N/A
6.3
2.9
4.7
4.6
8.4
2.5
3.0
1.9
2.4
2.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 284-0003
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Apr-15
22.9
9.3
7.4
7.0
6.1
5.9
5.1
4.9
4.5
4.0
3.2
3.1
2.7
1.8
1.6
1.1
0.8
BC
%
AB
%
SK
%
N%
%
Unemployment-to-Job Vacancies Ratio, Select Industries
Three-Month Average, April 2014 and 2015
M
da
na
ON
%
Ca
QC
%
NS
%
PE
%
NB
%
NL
%
Looking at the industry sectors in Canada
0.0%
shows the unemployment to job vacancies
ratios ranged from about one unemployed
person for every job vacancy in health care and
social assistance and finance and insurance to approximately 23 unemployed people for every vacant
job in mining and oil and gas in April 2015. The transportation and warehousing industry had a notable
increase in the unemployment to job vacancy ratio, with about six unemployed people for every vacant
job in April 2015, up from about three the previous year.
69
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Q2 2015 Survey Results: Medium-sized employers with 50-99 employees
Employer
Survey
The purpose of the quarterly survey is to gather information from Calgary and area employers on their
recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. Over the
course of the year, employers will be divided into four categories based on the number of employees in
the company and results of the survey will be reported on as follows:
✓ Q1 2015: Large-sized companies with 100+ employees
✓ Q2 2015: Medium-sized companies with 50 – 99 employees
✓ Q3 2015: Small-sized companies with 10 – 49 employees
✓ Q4 2015: Micro-sized companies with <10 employees
Survey Profile
The 200 employers surveyed employ approximately 14,059 people. Of this total, 80 per cent are fulltime employees, 8 per cent are part-time employees, and 12 per cent are either contract, seasonal,
casual, temporary or relief staff.
How many people does your company employ in the Calgary region?
Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
Total
Total
Employees
Number of
Companies
1,292
1,628
1,449
1,411
1,342
1,335
1,471
1,454
1,315
1,362
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
14,059
200
”Other” represents companies in any of the following industries: agriculture, utilities, information & culture,
management of companies, administrative & support services, educational services, other services or public administration.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
70
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Business Activity
On balance, only 1 per cent of the employers said their company expanded, down from
21 per cent in Q2 2014.
Has$your$company$expanded$or$downsized$
$in$the$last$12$months?$
Twenty-seven per cent of the employers
surveyed in Q2 2015 said their company
expanded in the 12 months prior to their survey
and 26 per cent reported their company
downsized, resulting in a positive balance of 1
per cent.145 In Q2 2014, 28 per cent of the
employers reported they expanded and 7 per
cent said they downsized, for a positive balance
of 21 per cent.
Expanded$
30%$
Downsized$
Balance$
21%$
20%$
10%$
1%$
0%$
%10%$
%20%$
%30%$
Q2$2014$
Q2$2015$
On balance, 45 per cent of the mining and oil
and gas employers and 40 per cent of the
construction employers downsized in the last year. In addition, 15 per cent of the wholesale and retail
trade and professional, scientific and technical services employers and 5 per cent of the accommodation
and food services/arts and entertainment employers reported they downsized. On the positive side, 45
per cent of the health care and social assistance employers, 40 per cent of the ‘other’ employers and 30
per cent of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing employers on balance said their companies
expanded in the last 12 months.
Past Business Activity
Percentage of companies that expanded or downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Expanded Downsized Balance Expanded Downsized Balance
Overall Results
28%
7%
21%
27%
26%
1%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
40%
25%
20%
5%
25%
55%
20%
25%
30%
30%
15%
0%
15%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
10%
20%
25%
25%
5%
5%
25%
55%
15%
25%
20%
10%
15%
5%
35%
15%
35%
25%
50%
5%
40%
40%
60%
45%
30%
30%
30%
40%
5%
10%
10%
0%
-45%
-40%
5%
-15%
5%
-15%
45%
-5%
30%
40%
Comments
‣ “We downsized a bit earlier this year.” - Construction
‣ “Yes, we downsized due to the industry downsizing.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We expanded by 5 beds, so that meant adding about 5-10 staff members.” - Health Care & Social
Assistance
145
Percentage of companies reporting an expansion minus percentage of companies reporting a downsize.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
71
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “We have downsized in terms of [rig] utilization.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “We have been steadily downsizing.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “We experienced a 5% downsize.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We have had to close some of our stores.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
‣ “It's been pretty stagnant in Calgary.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
On balance, only 5 per cent of the employers anticipate a business expansion in the
next 12 months, down significantly from 29 per cent in Q2 2014.
Twenty-two per cent of the employers
anticipate their company will expand in the 12
months following their survey and 17 per cent
anticipate their company will downsize, for a
positive balance of 5 per cent.146 In Q2 2014,
30 per cent anticipated an expansion and only 1
per cent anticipated a downsize, for a positive
balance of 29 per cent.
Do#you#an(cipate#a#business#expansion#or#
downsize#in#the#next#12#months?#
Expansion$
40%$
Downsize$
Balance$
29%$
30%$
20%$
10%$
5%$
0%$
&10%$
Manufacturing and construction employers are
&20%$
the most pessimistic about the near-term
Q2$2014$
Q2$2015$
outlook. On balance, one-quarter of the
employers in the manufacturing industry and 20
per cent of the employers in the construction industry anticipate a business downsize over the next year.
In addition, 5 per cent of the mining and oil and gas and accommodation and food services/arts and
entertainment employers on balance anticipate a downsize. On the other hand, several industries are
optimistic about the next 12 months, with 35 per cent of the transportation and warehousing employers,
one-quarter of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing employers and 20 per cent of the health
care and social assistant employers on balance anticipating a business expansion.
146
Percentage of companies anticipating a business expansion minus percentage of companies anticipating a business
downsize.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
72
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Future Business Activity
Percentage of companies that anticipate an expansion or downsize in the 12 months following their survey
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Expansion Downsize Balance Expansion Downsize
Overall Results
30%
1%
29%
22%
17%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
30%
35%
15%
15%
35%
45%
25%
25%
40%
35%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
25%
35%
15%
15%
35%
45%
25%
25%
40%
35%
20%
5%
15%
15%
45%
15%
25%
15%
35%
25%
25%
25%
40%
10%
10%
10%
5%
20%
10%
10%
Balance
5%
-5%
-20%
-25%
5%
35%
5%
20%
-5%
25%
15%
Comments
‣ “In two months, we will be undergoing a month long renovation.” - Accommodation & Food
Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “That depends on the economy, the continuing slowdown in oil and increase in the number of hotels
in northeast Calgary.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “We will not downsize anymore, but we have no immediate opportunities for growth.” - Construction
‣ “We think we will be staying the same. In public accounting, the economic downturn won't hit us
until next year during busy season in January.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “I think we will expand. However, I'm very concerned with our new government's plan to raise the
minimum wage to $15 by 2018. This is of great concern for small business owners. We pay above
minimum wage here, but there's even a stigma attached to paying only $1 over minimum wage. We
will have to pass along the costs of wage increases to the seniors that we are caring for.” - Health
Care & Social Assistance
‣ “That's a bit of an unknown. In health care, we don't know what next year's budget is going to look
like until the government makes their decisions.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “I think we may have to downsize. That's the tentative plan going forward.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We have the opportunity for a significant expansion, but we don't have the labour required.” Manufacturing
‣ “Now with the NDP government, I expect a downsize coming for sure.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We expect no change in staff, but a potential decrease in sub-contractors.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “We are downsizing at the end of June. We will be four schools rather than five starting in
September.” - Other
‣ “We're waiting for the market to change before we bring new people on. We are not letting go of any
people though.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
73
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “I expect relatively the same for the next 12 months. However, when oil and gas picks up in Q2 2016
we will see our projects picking up. We will hire after that happens.” - Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services
‣ “We are currently undergoing a renovation to expand the business.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Employment: Past Layoffs, Vacant Positions and Future Employment
Twenty-eight per cent of the employers laid off workers in the three months prior to
their survey.
Twenty-eight per cent of the employers
reported they laid off workers in the three
months prior to their survey (for reasons other
than seasonality). This was up significantly
from 17 per cent of the employers in the second
quarter of 2014, and was led by mining and oil
and gas (65 per cent), construction (50 per
cent), transportation and warehousing (40 per
cent), professional, scientific and technical
services (35 per cent) and manufacturing (30
per cent).
Percentage)of)companies)that)laid)off)
employees)in)the)three)months)prior)to)survey)
Q2#2015#
Q2#2014#
28%#
Overall#
Mining#&#Oil#&#Gas#
Construc2on#
Transporta2on#&#Warehousing#
Professional,#Scien2fic#&#Technical#
Manufacturing#
Other#
Wholesale#&#Retail#Trade#
Health#Care#&#Social#Assistance#
Finance,#Insurance,#Real#Estate#&#
Accommoda2on#&#Food#Services/
5%#
5%#
15%#
15%#
15%#
40%#
35%#
30%#
50%#
65%#
0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# 70%#
Overall, employers reported about 266 people were laid off. Twenty-three per cent of the layoffs were
in the mining and oil and gas industry, while another 21 per cent were in the professional, scientific and
technical services industry. Additional details on layoffs can be found in Appendix B.
Number of layoffs in the three months prior to survey
Industry
Total
Layoffs
Mining & Oil & Gas
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Manufacturing
Construction
Transportation & Warehousing
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Health Care & Social Assistance
Other
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Total
60
56
45
43
32
10
6
6
5
3
266
Comments
‣ “Our company is in three provinces and there have been layoffs all over.” - Finance, Insurance, Real
Estate & Leasing
‣ “We haven’t laid anyone off in the last 7 to 10 years.” - Manufacturing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
74
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “No, but we did have layoffs in March.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “We have layoffs slated for September. Last month, we notified staff that we'll be downsizing. We
aren't getting enough money from the government to support all of our teachers and teacher aides.
Therefore, we have made a difficult decision not to have teacher aides next year.” - Other
‣ “Most of our layoffs were contractors, casual or part-time employees.” - Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services
‣ “We had to layoff 30 per cent of our staff. That happened in the positions that don't really bring in
revenue like shipping and receiving, truck driving and non-destructive testing technicians.” Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Fifty-six per cent of the employers had a total of 435 vacant positions that needed to be
filled.
Overall, 56 per cent of the employers reported
they had vacant positions that needed to be
filled at the time of their survey, down from 66
per cent in the second quarter of 2014. Threequarters of the construction employers had
vacant positions, compared to only 40 per cent
of the wholesale and retail trade and finance,
insurance, real estate and leasing employers.
Percentage)of)companies)with)vacant)posi3ons)
that)needed)to)be)filled)at)3me)of)survey)
Q2$2015$
Q2$2014$
56%$
Overall$
ConstrucLon$
TransportaLon$&$Warehousing$
Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$
Professional,$ScienLfic$&$Tech.$
Accomm.$&$Food/Arts$&$Ent.$
Other$
Manufacturing$
Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$
Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$
Fin.,$Insur.,$Real$Est.$&$Leasing$
75%$
70%$
65%$
55%$
55%$
55%$
55%$
45%$
40%$
40%$
Employers reported they had 435 vacancies that
0%$
20%$
40%$
60%$
80%$
need to be filled. About half of all the vacancies
were in the transportation and warehousing,
accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment and health care and social assistance
industries. Additional details on vacant positions can be found in Appendix B.
Number of vacant positions at time of survey
Industry
Transportation & Warehousing
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Health Care & Social Assistance
Construction
Other
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Mining & Oil & Gas
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Total
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Total Vacant
Positions
73
72
71
51
43
29
29
25
24
18
435
100%$
75
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Comments
‣ “We are always hiring hardworking tradesmen to join our teams in the field.” - Construction
‣ “If the right people came along, we could hire 30 to 40.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We just have one maternity leave position open, but we are always accepting resumes for
consultants.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “We have no official open positions that have been approved by corporate. However, we have a lot of
unofficial vacant positions based on business needs that we would fill if it were in the budget.” Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We're always looking for experienced rail car repairers. We could hire five easily if the right people
came along.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “I have piles of positions to fill. I could immediately hire 10 drivers, four wash bay attendants, four
autobody technicians and three mechanics. Plus, I need a dispatcher.” - Transportation &
Warehousing
On balance, 11 per cent of the employers anticipate employment in their company will
increase over the next three months.
Once any current vacant positions are filled, 19
per cent of the employers anticipate
employment in their company will increase
over the next three months, 8 per cent anticipate
employment will decrease, and 73 per cent
anticipate employment will stay the same, for a
positive balance of 11 per cent. 147 This is down
significantly from the Q2 2014 results when 32
per cent of the employers on balance
anticipated employment would increase.
Do#you#an(cipate#employment#will#increase,##
decrease#or#stay#the#same#in#the#next#3#months?#
Increase$
40%$
Decrease$
Balance$
32%$
30%$
20%$
11%$
10%$
0%$
&10%$
Q2$2014$
Q2$2015$
Employers from the ‘other’ industry 148 are the
most positive about future employment levels. On balance, 30 per cent of the employers in this industry
anticipate an increase in employment in the next three months. In addition, one-fifth of the
transportation and warehousing and health care and social assistance employers on balance anticipate
an increase in employment. In contrast, 10 per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and
entertainment employers on balance anticipate employment will decrease over the next three months,
significantly more pessimistic when compared to the previous year’s results. Mining and oil and gas
147
Percentage of employers that anticipate employment in their company will increase in the next three months minus the
percentage of employers that anticipate employment will decrease.
148
‘Other’ represents companies in any of the following industries: agriculture, utilities, information & culture,management of
companies, administrative & support services, educational services, other services or public administration.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
76
EMPLOYER SURVEY
employers were neutral on balance, with 10 per cent anticipating an employment increase and 10 per
cent anticipating an employment decrease.
Future Employment
Percentage of companies that anticipated an increase or decrease in total employment in the
3 months following their survey
Q2 2014
Increase
Decrease Balance Increase
Overall Results
33%
1%
32%
19%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
15%
65%
30%
25%
25%
40%
40%
40%
25%
20%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
15%
65%
30%
25%
25%
40%
40%
35%
25%
20%
10%
20%
30%
15%
25%
20%
20%
10%
10%
30%
Q2 2015
Decrease
8%
Balance
11%
10%
15%
15%
5%
5%
5%
0%
20%
5%
0%
0%
5%
15%
10%
20%
15%
20%
-10%
5%
30%
Overall, employers anticipate employment will increase by a net 26 people in the three months
following their survey. ‘Other’ employers anticipate a net increase of 99 people and transportation and
warehousing employers anticipate a net increase of 23 people. Employers in the accommodation and
food services/arts and entertainment industry anticipate a net decrease of about 121 people in the three
months following their survey.
Anticipated change in employment over the next three months
Industry
Other
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Health Care & Social Assistance
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Construction
Mining & Oil & Gas
Manufacturing
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Total
Increase Decrease
#
#
99
24
20
12
6
9
13
15
22
9
229
0
1
2
5
0
4
12
19
30
130
203
Net #
99
23
18
7
6
5
1
-4
-8
-121
26
Comments
‣ “A lot will depend on what happens with the economy and how the minimum wage increase impacts
us. Our sales have reduced by 10 per cent, so I suspect we will be looking at reducing our employee
base by 10 per cent. The minimum wage increase will have an impact at all our levels of pay. We are
not sure to what extent though as we haven't really analyzed that yet.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We will stay the same for the next three months, but after that we will be looking to increase again.”
- Other
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
77
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “We're in sort of a hiring freeze. We have to substantiate any new hire to corporate, so managers are
making do with what they have.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “There are vacancies, but we will not be hiring until things improve with the economy.” Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “I think people will leave because of the shortage of work.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Recruitment Resources
Ninety-five per cent of the employers use word of mouth/employee referrals to find
applicants.
Employers were asked to identify all of the
resources they use to find applicants. The top
three resources employers use are word of
mouth/employee referrals (95 per cent), career
and classified websites (84 per cent) and
company website/internal postings (82 per
cent). Fifty-two per cent of the employers said
they use social media as a resource, up from 42
per cent in the second quarter of 2014. Fifteen
per cent of the employers mentioned they use
Alberta Works/employment resource centres.
Resources(used(to(find(applicants(
Word#of#mouth/employees#referrals#
Career#and#classified#websites#
Company#website/internal#posOngs#
WalkTins/unsolicited#resumes#
Social#Media#
Industry#associaOons#
Employment#agencies#
Colleges/universiOes#
Technical/trade#insOtutes#
Job#fairs#
Newspapers#
Signage#
Alberta#Works/emp.#resource#centres#
High#schools#
Magazines#
Television#
Other#
Radio#
30%#
23%#
22%#
20%#
18%#
15%#
8%#
5%#
2%#
2%#
1%#
0%#
20%#
52%#
45%#
42%#
40%#
60%#
95%#
84%#
82%#
71%#
80%#
100%#
However, career and classified websites was the most successful resource over the
last 12 months.
Employers were then asked to specify the
resource that was the most successful over the
last 12 months. Of all the resources mentioned,
career and classified websites were the most
successful, reported by 36 per cent of the
employers, followed by word of mouth/
employee referrals (27 per cent) and company
website/internal postings (10 per cent). While
over half of the employers reported they use
social media as a resource to find applicants,
only 6 per cent said it was the most successful
over the last year.
Most%successful%resource%over%last%12%months%
Career#and#classified#websites#
Word#of#mouth/employees#referrals#
Company#website/internal#posEngs#
Employment#agencies#
Social#Media#
Newspapers#
Industry#associaEons#
WalkJins/unsolicited#resumes#
Other#
Colleges/universiEes#
Signage#
Technical/trade#insEtutes#
Magazines#
Alberta#Works/emp.#resource#centres#
Unsure#
6%#
6%#
5%#
3%#
2%#
2%#
1%#
1%#
1%#
1%#
1%#
3%#
0%#
27%#
10%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
Comments
‣ “We recruit at SAIT for back of house positions.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts &
Entertainment
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
36%#
40%#
78
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “We recruit at student groups in Vancouver and Montreal. We try to hire locally for what we can get.
We hire temporary foreign workers and that was the most successful resource for us, but that might be
a thing of the past.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “The Bow Valley newspaper is extremely useful.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts &
Entertainment
‣ “We rely on the government job resource centre in Banff.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts &
Entertainment
‣ “We attend the career symposium at SAIT.” - Construction
‣ “Industry associations can sometimes be useful, but we get our staff from headhunters mostly.” Construction
‣ “We always ask our employees internally first if they know of any good referrals. We go to very
specialized campus recruiting job fairs at universities or industry associations.” - Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “The Calgary Chamber of Volunteer Organizations is our best recruiting resource.” - Health Care &
Social Assistance
‣ “Our most success comes from online advertisement methods like Kijiji.” - Health Care & Social
Assistance
‣ “Word of mouth and employee referrals are the most successful because our employees don't refer
people unless they think they will be good for the job.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “The most successful recruitment resource over our 50 years in business has been word of mouth and
employee referral.” - Manufacturing
‣ “Kijiji has replaced our newspaper advertisements as the most successful resource. We no longer have
to use newspapers.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We get most of our kitchen staff from the SAIT culinary program.” - Other
‣ “For our interns, we recruit specifically through universities.” - Other
‣ “To be quite honest, our best applicants come to us through the national newspapers.” - Other
‣ “We seem to get enough through friends and family or employees who know someone. People tend to
stay for 10 to 20 years. We would try other recruitment methods, but at this point it's not necessary.” Other
‣ “Advertisements in electronic magazines is our best recruitment method.” - Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services
‣ “We get people from temp agencies and we just sort out from them. We will give someone a chance
and if it works out then we put them on permanent payroll.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
79
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “Most of our employees come to us because of our signage.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
‣ “Our best resource was LMOs. Now with the new rules, we may not be able to get the temporary
foreign workers that we need.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
Recruiting Difficulties
Forty-six per cent the employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified
employees.
Overall, 46 per cent of the employers said they
had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in
the 12 months prior to their survey, down
slightly from 50 per cent in the second quarter
of 2014. About two-thirds of the
accommodation and food services/arts and
entertainment employers had difficulty
recruiting qualified employees, compared to
only 20 per cent of the health care and social
assistance employers.
Percentage)of)companies)that)had)difficulty)
recrui6ng)in)the)12)months)prior)to)survey)
Q2$2015$
Q2$2014$
46%$
Overall$
Accomm.$&$Food/Arts$&$Ent.$
ConstrucAon$
TransportaAon$&$Warehousing$
Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$
Other$
Fin.,$Insur.,$Real$Est.$&$Leasing$
Manufacturing$
Professional,$ScienAfic$&$Tech.$
Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$
Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$
25%$
20%$
0%$
20%$
35%$
40%$
65%$
60%$
55%$
50%$
50%$
50%$
45%$
60%$
80%$
The 91 employers that reported having
difficulty recruiting were also asked to specify the occupations that were the most difficult to fill. Truck
drivers was the top occupation, reported by 11 per cent of the employers, followed by sales
representatives - wholesale trade (5 per cent) and financial auditors and accountants, food and beverage
servers and food counter attendants and kitchen helpers (4 per cent each).
What occupations have been the most difficult to fill?
NOC Code Occupation
7511
Truck drivers
6411
Sales representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)
1111
Financial auditors and accountants
6513
Food and beverage servers
6711
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations
0711
Construction managers
2145
Petroleum engineers
6731
Light duty cleaners
6733
Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents
7611
Construction trades helpers and labourers
Note: 91 employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees.
Only occupations with a response of 3 per cent or more are shown in the table.
Employers
%
11%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
Comments
‣ “It depends on the position. Highly skilled jobs, like director of purchasing and estimating, can stay
vacant for a long time.” - Construction
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
80
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “That depends on the level of the job. For front line workers, no. For managers, yes.” - Health Care &
Social Assistance
‣ “We've had many overqualified applicants come to us looking for income that is significantly greater
than what we are willing to offer.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “Yes recruiting has been somewhat difficult. We have difficulty with the more specialized engineering
positions.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “For the very highly technical positions, such as certified engineering technologists and urban
planners, yes.” - Other
‣ “Yes, we’ve had difficulty in one department in particular- software developers.” - Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “Yes, it’s difficult to get good highway drivers.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We have had trouble finding heavy duty technicians.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “In trucking, hiring experienced class 1 drivers is extremely difficult.” - Transportation &
Warehousing
‣ “Absolutely. I spend so much money on recruitment that it's ridiculous. I can't find people for
production, wash floor or sales. I have a maintenance position that's been open for 15 months.” Wholesale & Retail Trade
‣ “No, we just struggle with getting the people we recruit to maintain their employment.” - Wholesale
& Retail Trade
Employers have responded to the difficulty finding qualified employees in a variety of ways. Of the 91
employers that reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees, 76 per cent increased
recruiting efforts, 66 per cent did not fill the job opening and 52 per cent increased the workload for
current workers. Approximately one-fifth of the 91 employers applied for or hired temporary foreign
workers.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
81
EMPLOYER SURVEY
How has your company responded to the difficulty recruiting qualified employees?
Response to hiring difficulties
Employers
%
Increased recruiting efforts
Did not fill the job opening
Increased workload for current workers
Increased investment in training provided by in-house staff
Hired a less qualified applicant
Hired contingent workers, including temps, contractors and freelancers
Increased wages/benefits to attract more applicants
Applied for/hired temporary foreign workers
Targeted underutilized or new talent pools*
Partnered with educational institutions to ensure programs develop candidates with the right skills
Redeployed employees to new roles where their skills were more needed
Outsourced the work
Increased investment in training provided by a third-party
Applied for a Canada-Alberta Job Grant
Redesigned the job to change the required skills
Increased networking opportunities
Downsized the company
Started actively hiring out of province
Other
Cancelled the position
Employee referral program
Nothing
Note: 91 employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees.
* Mature workers, stay at home parents, persons with disabilities, Aboriginal peoples, etc.
76%
66%
52%
38%
37%
31%
23%
21%
21%
19%
18%
15%
12%
11%
10%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Comments
‣ “We started to hire earlier in the year. We don't need extra staff until the end of June, but we start to
hire about two months earlier from everyone else for the busy summer season in July and August. If
we wait, there will not be enough people still available to hire.” - Accommodation & Food Services/
Arts & Entertainment
‣ “We end up short staffed. We tried applying for temporary foreign workers, but we were refused.” Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “We just keep trying. We will change up the description of the position to try and get people to
apply.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “We were forced to downsize due to the lack of skilled tradespeople available.” - Construction
‣ “We're working with multiple employment agencies.” - Construction
‣ “We have started using Indeed rather than relying on word of mouth.” - Construction
‣ “We hire out of province.” - Construction
‣ “We just make do with what we have. We outsource when we need something done.” - Finance,
Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We ended up using a recruiter.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We kind of talk to more people and start trying to hire from competitors.” - Finance, Insurance, Real
Estate & Leasing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
82
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “There were a lot of qualified people, but there was such a hiring frenzy. We had to use employment
agencies. It was just difficult getting them before others did.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate &
Leasing
‣ “We have tried LMIAs, but we don't get enough funding to employ them. We haven't been successful
with recruiting and so we're trying to build our internal skills. We work with colleges and universities
to do that.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We've actually gone away from hiring licensed practical nurses. We've stopped asking for
accreditation, and started hiring for the lower level employees.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We use more means for recruiting, such as agencies, word of mouth and networking.” Manufacturing
‣ “We go to industry associations to see what certifications they have. We use headhunters.” - Mining &
Oil & Gas
‣ “We now hire mainly out in Eastern Canada.” - Other
‣ “We have affiliations with industry associations, so we go to trade shows.” - Other
‣ “We've tried harder to attract people. We've increased our referral bonuses and branched out to more
forms of social media.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We've distributed the workload amongst our remaining staff and continued to go through word of
mouth and networking opportunities.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We have increased our compensation and benefits.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We just take on less business.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “I think we maybe differ from other companies. We will take people right out of class 1 driving
schools with no experience and we will work with them to make them road worthy. That's one thing
we do above and beyond other companies.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We have had to bring in contractors.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
‣ “We moved our accounting department to our sister company in Phoenix about six months ago.” Wholesale & Retail Trade
‣ “The government keeps canceling the temporary foreign workers we apply for. I have an open LMIA
right now. They've taken eight workers from me because they didn't get renewals. Temporary foreign
workers are the best workers that we have because we're a labour intensive industry. The people off
the street have a sense of entitlement so they don't want to do this kind of work. Being unable to
apply for temporary foreign workers kills our turnover numbers and we pay top wages for our
industry. We can't raise rates any more with customers, so we have to take a hit to our profitability.
With all the layoffs in oil and gas, there is still no workforce available for us to draw from. That's
probably because they went back to their home provinces or are making more money on
unemployment.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
83
EMPLOYER SURVEY
On balance, 17 per cent of the employers anticipate they will have less difficulty
recruiting qualified employees over the next 12 months.
Eleven per cent of the employers anticipate
they will have more difficulty recruiting
qualified employees in the 12 months following
their survey, 28 per cent anticipate they will
have less difficulty and 61 per cent anticipate
they will have about the same difficulty, for a
balance of -17 per cent.149
Do#you#an(cipate#having#more,#less#or#the#same#
difficulty#recrui(ng#qualified#employees#in#the#
next#12#months?#
More$
30%$
Less$
Balance$
16%$
20%$
10%$
0%$
In Q2 2014, 16 per cent of the employers on
balance anticipated they would have more
difficulty recruiting qualified employees.
%17%$
%10%$
%20%$
%30%$
Q2$2014$
Q2$2015$
Employers in all of the industries, with the
exception of accommodation and food services/
arts and entertainment, anticipate they will have less difficulty recruiting in the next 12 months, led by
mining and oil and gas (-30 per cent), professional, scientific and technical services (-30 per cent),
wholesale and retail trade (-25 per cent) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (-25 per cent).
Fifteen per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers on balance
anticipate they will have more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next year.
Future Recruiting Difficulties
Percentage of companies that anticipated having more or less difficulty recruiting qualified employees
in the 12 months following their survey
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
More
Less
Balance
More
Less
Overall Results
19%
3%
16%
11%
28%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
10%
5%
20%
20%
10%
40%
10%
25%
25%
25%
10%
5%
0%
5%
0%
5%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
20%
15%
10%
35%
10%
25%
25%
20%
15%
10%
15%
5%
15%
0%
10%
25%
5%
10%
45%
25%
35%
30%
30%
30%
25%
10%
30%
20%
Balance
-17%
-30%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-15%
-30%
-15%
15%
-25%
-10%
Comments
‣ “With the new temporary foreign worker laws, I don't know what's going to happen in Banff because
we rely on those people a lot. They are the majority of the workers here. ” - Accommodation & Food
Services/Arts & Entertainment
149
Percentage of employers that anticipate having more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months following
their survey minus the percentage of employers that anticipate having less difficulty.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
84
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “We will definitely have more difficulty recruiting because we need people who are trained in specific
trades.” - Construction
‣ “We're in a hiring freeze. I'm sure it would be easy to recruit if we decided to because there are
thousands of people laid off right now.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We have had an excess of applicants in the last two months, so I expect less difficulty.” - Health Care
& Social Assistance
‣ “There's a lot of new facilities opening in south and northeast Calgary. I expect a bit more difficulty
when those beds come on board.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “There have been so many layoffs. If we hire, we will get the cream of the crop and it will be a slam
dunk for anybody looking for workers.” - Manufacturing
‣ “I expect we will have more difficulty finding long haul truck drivers willing to drive routes to the
US.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We thought it would be easier with economic downturn, but we're finding it's not easier. The quality
of resumes are not there.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Employee Turnover
Seventy-nine per cent of the employers reported employees had voluntarily left their
company in the prior year.
Overall, 79 per cent of the employers reported
employees had left their company in the 12
months prior to their survey as a result of
voluntary turnover,150 down slightly from 83
per cent in Q2 2014.
Ninety per cent of the accommodation and food
service/arts and entertainment employers and
85 per cent of the other, health care and social
assistance and transportation and warehousing
employers said employees had voluntarily left
in the prior year, compared to 65 per cent of the
professional, scientific and technical services
employers.
150
Percentage)of)companies)with)voluntary)
turnover)in)the)12)months)prior)to)survey)
Q2$2015$
Initiated by the employee, not including retirement or maternity leave.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Q2$2014$
79%$
Overall$
Accomm.$&$Food/Arts$&$Ent.$
Other$
Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$
Transporta9on$&$Warehousing$
Manufacturing$
Fin.,$Insur.,$Real$Est.$&$Leasing$
Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$
Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$
Construc9on$
Professional,$Scien9fic$&$Tech.$
90%$
85%$
85%$
85%$
80%$
75%$
75%$
75%$
70%$
65%$
0%$
20%$
40%$
60%$
80%$
100%$
85
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Overall, the turnover rate was 8 per cent.
Employers reported approximately 1,173
employees left their companies in the 12
months prior to their survey as a result of
voluntary turnover. This equates to a turnover
rate151 of 8 per cent, unchanged from the
second quarter of 2014.
Employee(turnover(rates(
Q2#2015#
Overall#
Accomm.#&#Food/Arts#&#Ent.#
Health#Care#&#Social#Assistance#
Wholesale#&#Retail#Trade#
Other#
Construc9on#
Transporta9on#&#Warehousing#
Mining#&#Oil#&#Gas#
Manufacturing#
Fin.,#Insur.,#Real#Est.#&#Leasing#
Professional,#Scien9fic#&#Tech.#
Q2#2014#
8%#
22%#
12%#
8%#
7%#
7%#
6%#
6%#
5%#
5%#
4%#
The accommodation and food services/arts and
entertainment industry had the highest turnover
rate on average at 22 per cent, up from 17 per
cent the previous year. In contrast, the
0%#
5%#
10%# 15%# 20%# 25%# 30%#
manufacturing (5 per cent), finance, insurance,
real estate and leasing (5 per cent) and
professional, scientific and technical services industries (4 per cent) had the lowest employee turnover
rates in the second quarter of 2015.
Employers were also asked to specify the occupations that experienced the most voluntary turnover.
Truck drivers was the top occupation, mentioned by 8 per cent of the employers, followed by
community and social service workers (7 per cent), food and beverage servers (6 per cent) and
construction trades helpers and labourers (5 per cent).
What occupations have experienced the most voluntary turnover?
NOC Code
Occupation
Employers
%
7511
Truck drivers
8%
4212
Community and social service workers
7%
6513
Food and beverage servers
6%
7611
Construction trades helpers and labourers
5%
9617
Labourers in food, beverage and tobacco processing
3%
8612
Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers
3%
1111
Financial auditors and accountants
3%
6322
Cooks
3%
6711
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations
3%
6731
Light duty cleaners
3%
6221
Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade
3%
1521
Shippers and receivers
2%
2145
Petroleum engineers
2%
6411
Sales representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)
2%
6421
Retail salespersons
2%
9612
Labourers in metal fabrication
2%
8222
Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service
2%
1223
Personnel and recruitment officers
2%
6552
Customer service, information and related clerks
2%
Note: 157 employers reported employees had left their company in the previous 12 months as a
result of voluntary turnover.
Only occupations with a response of 2 per cent or more are shown in the table.
151
Total turnover divided by total employees.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
86
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Comments
‣ “Our turnover rate is quite high, at about 30 per cent.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts &
Entertainment
‣ “Our turnover rate is around 60 per cent. It's pretty equal amongst our entry level jobs in course and
grounds maintenance, food and beverage, and the pro shop.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts
& Entertainment
‣ “One of our managers actually left and took some of our employees with him.” - Construction
‣ “We lost 15 concrete pump operators and concrete finishers. Some of those transferred to a different
province or went back to school, while others went to different companies.” - Construction
‣ “We experience the most turnover with our part time hourly staff.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
& Leasing
‣ “We see turnover in our tax consulting group.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “People come and go all the time, particularly our bank tellers.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate &
Leasing
‣ “Our turnover rate is 42 per cent.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We experience turnover mainly with our entry level support worker positions.” - Health Care &
Social Assistance
‣ “There's probably been about seven people leave the production line in the last 12 months.” Manufacturing
‣ “The 2014 annual turnover rate was 35 per cent. Most of those were field operators.” - Mining & Oil
& Gas
‣ “Yes, I’ve lost four people. That’s every single person I've hired in the past year.” - Transportation &
Warehousing
‣ “The heavy duty mechanics tend to come and go quite often, so I would say we have lost at least
five.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
‣ “We’ve lost at least 35 in shipping and receiving. They're leaving because they don't want to do the
work.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
87
EMPLOYER SURVEY
On balance, 16 per cent of the employers anticipate employee turnover will be lower
over the next year.
Do#you#an(cipate#employee#turnover#will#be#
higher#or#lower#in#the#next#12#months?#
Seven per cent of the employers anticipate
voluntary employee turnover will be higher in
the 12 months following their survey and 23 per
cent anticipate it will be lower, for a balance of
16 per cent anticipating turnover will be
lower.152 In Q2 2014, 7 per cent of the
employers on balance anticipated turnover
would be lower in the year following their
survey.
Higher$
Lower$
Balance$
10%$
5%$
0%$
!7%$
!5%$
!10%$
!16%$
!15%$
!20%$
!25%$
Q2$2014$
Q2$2015$
Thirty-five per cent of the ‘other’ employers
and 30 per cent of the wholesale and retail trade
employers on balance anticipate employee turnover in their company will be lower in the next year.
Employers in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industry anticipate turnover will be about
the same over the next 12 months, while 15 per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and
entertainment employers anticipate turnover will be higher.
Future Turnover
Percentage of companies that anticipated employee turnover would be higher or lower in the 12 months
following their survey
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Higher
Lower
Balance
Higher
Lower
Overall Results
6%
13%
-7%
7%
23%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
10%
10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
0%
5%
20%
5%
0%
5%
20%
5%
30%
10%
25%
5%
-10%
5%
5%
0%
-15%
0%
-25%
-5%
-25%
0%
5%
5%
15%
0%
5%
0%
0%
25%
5%
5%
30%
20%
25%
30%
15%
25%
25%
10%
5%
40%
Balance
-16%
-25%
-15%
-10%
-30%
-10%
-25%
-25%
15%
0%
-35%
Comments
‣ “Higher because we have temporary foreign workers here and the government is not helping us with
that.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “I expect lower turnover because this economy is tentative. I think people are sticking with the jobs
that they have.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We have quite a few temporary foreign workers coming due that we will have trouble replacing.” Manufacturing
152
Percentage of employers that anticipated voluntary turnover would be higher in the 12 months following their survey
minus the percentage of employers that anticipated voluntary turnover would be lower.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
88
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “Turnover will be higher because the company is not doing well, the economic environment is
unstable and product performance is weak.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “Most of our employees stay for two to three years. That’s our average retention period.” Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We don't have huge amount of turnover. We only do when hiring new people. When we have to
ramp up to deal with new projects, that's when we get turnover from those new employees. We have a
lot of depth with our established employees, as some have been here 20-25 years.” - Transportation &
Warehousing
Retention
The top successful retention strategy over the last 12 months was providing a
competitive salary.
Employers were asked to indicate an employee
retention strategy that was the most successful
over the last 12 months. The top successful
strategy was providing a competitive salary,
reported by 20 per cent of the employers,
followed by providing competitive benefits (14
per cent) and a positive work environment (10
per cent). Four per cent of the employers said
nothing was successful in retaining employees
and 8 per cent were unsure.
Comments
Most%successful%employee%reten0on%strategy%
CompeEEve#salary#
CompeEEve#benefits#
PosiEve#work#environment#
Company#culture#
Excellent#management/supervision#
Learning/growth#opportuniEes#
Job#security/full#Eme#hours#
Employee#engagement#
Perks#
InteresEng/challenging#work#
Flexible#work#measures#
Cash#bonuses#
Other#
Reward#and#recogniEon#programs#
Onboarding/recruitment#process#
Excellent#communicaEon#
Work/life#balance#
Employee#referral#program#
Nothing#
Unsure#
10%#
20%#
14%#
7%#
6%#
5%#
5%#
5%#
4%#
3%#
3%#
3%#
2%#
2%#
1%#
1%#
1%#
1%#
4%#
8%#
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
‣ “Well our best retention strategy was
utilization of the temporary foreign worker program.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts &
Entertainment
‣ “The one perk of every golf course: golfing.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts &
Entertainment
‣ “We're in pipeline construction, so it comes down to money.” - Construction
‣ “The training that we offer. We've started recruiting unskilled people and training them to become
skilled concrete finishers.” - Construction
‣ “Based on our employee survey, lots of people talk about corporate culture and social atmosphere
being most important. Also, they like the benefits and perks we offer and the fact that their voice is
heard and their opinion counts at work.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “I'm not sure what the most successful retention strategy is, but I can tell you it's not money.” Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
89
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “I'd say it's our culture. Also, because we have employment for a niche social services market, people
who come to work for us are looking for a specific job that may not be available elsewhere in the
community.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We have no effective strategy because we're government funded and have no control over wages or
benefits. As far as what we can do, I would say probably providing ongoing training and support and
having staff appreciation events.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “I think it's our management style. We try and move decision-making to lowest level. We encourage
the staff to take part in problem solving and development of new policies and procedures. We try to
give them as much control over their work as we're able to.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “It's just the work atmosphere that keeps people here. We have very little turnover because this is a
good place to work. We have many employees who've worked here 12 to 20 years.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We sought a new space to work at and the new location has helped with retention.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We've tried lots of different things, such as bonuses, group insurance programs and RRSPs. Because
we're such a blue collar industry, it's difficult to make sure we're offering our employees consistent
career paths. They want to know how to get raises and promotions. Giving them performance
evaluations allows them to learn how to get to the next wage levels.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We employ a safety bonus structure that provides employees with an additional income based upon
the length they've been employed and their adherence to safety processes and procedures during that
year.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “Any other year I would say our long term incentive plan, but this year I would say it’s actually that
they still have a job.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “I think it comes down to presentation. It's an on-boarding thing. We get people who are enthusiastic
to come to the interview and get the candidate excited about the job. That actually helps with their
retention.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “The key item is employee training and development.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “For what we do as a trucking company, our best retention strategy is offering an environment that is
safe. We work very hard with Dangerous Goods and Occupational Health & Safety. Our owner
supports drivers in their own decisions to not take unsafe equipment or jobs. They have our
company's support in keeping them safe. I think our employees appreciate that because if someone
does get pulled over with unsafe equipment that will reflect on their license.” - Transportation &
Warehousing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
90
EMPLOYER SURVEY
One-quarter of the employers anticipate they will be focusing more on employee
retention over the next year.
Do#you#an(cipate#focusing#more,#less#or#the#same#
Thirty per cent of the employers anticipate they
on#employee#reten(on#in#the#next#12#months?#
will be focusing more on employee retention
More$
Less$
Balance$
over the next year, 5 per cent anticipate they
50%$
42%$
will be focusing less and 65 per cent anticipate
40%$
they will be focusing about the same, for a
25%$
30%$
153
positive balance of 25 per cent. This is down
20%$
significantly from the second quarter of 2014
10%$
when 42 per cent of the employers said they
0%$
would be focusing more on employee retention.
&10%$
Half of the health care and social assistance
Q2$2014$
Q2$2015$
employers anticipate they will be focusing more
on employee retention over the next year,
compared to only 10 per cent of the construction employers and 5 per cent of the manufacturing
employers.
Future Retention
Percentage of companies that anticipated they would be focusing more or less on employee retention
in the 12 months following their survey
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
More
Less
Balance
More
Less
Overall Results
42%
0%
42%
30%
5%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
55%
30%
20%
30%
45%
55%
40%
55%
55%
35%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
55%
30%
20%
30%
45%
55%
40%
55%
55%
35%
30%
15%
15%
30%
35%
25%
50%
35%
25%
35%
10%
5%
10%
5%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
Balance
25%
20%
10%
5%
25%
25%
25%
50%
35%
25%
30%
Comments
‣ “Right now we're starting an employee recognition program.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate &
Leasing
‣ “Every year in January we do employee surveys and adjust our strategies accordingly.” - Finance,
Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “Some employee education opportunities are planned from the corporate level because they're really
looking at new ways to improve employee retention.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
153
Percentage of employers that anticipate they will be focusing more on employee retention in the 12 months following
their survey minus the percentage of employers that anticipate they will be focusing less.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
91
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “We're a manufacturer, so if the government raises minimum wage too high it makes us less
competitive outside of the province of Alberta. We're heading for severe problems. Retention is going
to be easy in the industry because people just aren't going to be able to go anywhere else.” Manufacturing
‣ “Less because in this economy retention can't be our primary focus.” - Other
‣ “We will be offering more training and more opportunities to promote from within.” - Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We're focusing more on training and offering more flexibility in shifts.” - Transportation &
Warehousing
‣ “Retention is a big key factor for us. It includes succession planning, growth planning, training and
development, coaching, leadership and mentoring.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We are always working towards safety. The industry as a whole cannot say the same.” Transportation & Warehousing
Supplemental Questions - Focus on Employee Training and Development
In addition to the general questions about recruitment and retention practices, employers were asked
the following specific questions about their training and development practices:
‣ On a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being strongly disagree and 5 being strongly agree, please evaluate the
following statement: Employee training and development is a top priority in our company.
‣ Does your company currently have a budget specifically for employee training and development? If
yes, do you anticipate you will be spending more, less or the same on employee training and
development in your next budget.
‣ What is the biggest challenge your company faces in terms of training employees?
‣ In terms of learning content, which of the following areas does your company either provide training
or pay for training? (Employers were given a list).
Seventy per cent of the employers agreed that employee training and development is a
top priority in their company.
Forty-one per cent of the employers strongly agreed that employee training and development is a top
priority in their company, while 29 per cent of the employers agreed. Only 8 per cent of the employers
disagreed.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
92
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Employee training and development is a top priority in our company
Agree)
29%)
Neutral)
22%)
70%)
Strongly)Agree)
41%)
Disagree)
6%) Strongly)
Disagree)
2%)
Eighty-five per cent of the the accommodation
and food services/arts and entertainment
employers and 80 per cent of the wholesale and
retail trade and manufacturing employers
agreed that employee training and development
is a top priority in their company. In contrast,
only half of the construction employers agreed.
About two-thirds of the employers have
a budget specifically for employee
training and development.
Employee(training(and(development(is((
a(top(priority(in(our(company(
Strongly$Agree$
Accomm.$&$Food/Arts$&$Ent.$
Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$
Manufacturing$
Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$
Professional,$Scien3fic$&$Tech.$
Other$
Fin.,$Insur.,$Real$Est.$&$Leasing$
Transporta3on$&$Warehousing$
Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$
Construc3on$
Agree$
55%$
30%$
50%$
30%$
45%$
35%$
30%$
45%$
35%$
35%$
45%$
20%$
45%$
20%$
45%$
15%$
25%$
35%$
30%$
20%$
0%$
20%$
40%$
60%$
80%$
100%$
Sixty-four per cent of the employers said they
currently have a budget specifically for employee training and development, 35 per cent said they do
not, and 1 per cent were unsure. Eighty-five per cent of the professional, scientific and technical
services employers and 80 per cent of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing and health care and
social assistance employers reported they have a budget specifically for training and development. In
contrast, only 45 per cent of the manufacturing and construction employers said they have a specific
budget for training.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
93
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Does your company currently have a budget specifically for
employee training and development?
Yes$
No$
Total$
Professional,$Scien3fic$&$Technical$
Finance,$Insurance,$Real$Estate$&$
Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$
Accommoda3on$&$Food$Services/Arts$
Other$
Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$
Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$
Transporta3on$&$Warehousing$
Manufacturing$
Construc3on$
Unsure$
64%$
85%$
80%$
80%$
75%$
65%$
60%$
55%$
50%$
45%$
45%$
0%$
20%$
40%$
60%$
80%$
100%$
Comments
‣ “Due to budget cutbacks, employee training and development is no longer a top priority for us.” Construction
‣ “Not a specific budget, but we give the training required. We will pay for it and get it done for them.”
- Construction
‣ “We have trainers employed with us to deliver training.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We have a full time educator on board plus we send staff outside the company for training. Certainly
continuing education is a priority for me.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “There's no standard amount spent. Training is on an as needed basis.” - Manufacturing
‣ “Yes, but the budget has been dramatically reduced due to poor company performance. Our
discretionary spending is very restricted now.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “We have a small budget for training and it’s not enough.” - Other
‣ “We will be spending more on training and development with our Canada-Alberta Job Grant.” Transportation & Warehousing
Five per cent of the employers on balance anticipate they will be spending more on
employee training and development in their next budget.
Of the 128 employers that have a budget specifically for training, 5 per cent on balance anticipate they
will be spending more on employee training and development in their next budget. About one-third of
the transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment and other
employers anticipate they will be spending more. In contrast, 37 per cent of the mining and oil and gas
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
94
EMPLOYER SURVEY
employers and 24 per cent of the professional, scientific and technical services employers anticipate
they will be spending less on balance.
Future Spending on Employee Training and Development
Percentage of companies that anticipated they would be spending more or less
on employee training and development in their next budget
Q2 2015
More
Less
Balance
Overall Results
21%
16%
5%
Results by Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
18%
11%
11%
25%
40%
0%
13%
40%
19%
38%
55%
11%
11%
17%
10%
24%
0%
7%
19%
8%
-37%
0%
0%
8%
30%
-24%
13%
33%
0%
30%
Note: 128 employers currently have a budget specifically for employee training and
development.
Time constraints is the top challenge employers face in terms of training employees.
Twenty-six per cent of the employers said time constraints (too busy) is the biggest challenge they face
when training employees. Managing employees’ diverse learning needs and knowing what training is
relevant and available is the next biggest challenge, mentioned by 14 per cent of the employers.
Another 12 per cent of the employers said training is too costly or is not in the budget.
What is the biggest challenge your company faces in terms of training employees?
Biggest Challenge
Time constraints - too busy
Managing employees' diverse learning needs - knowing what training is relevant and available
Too costly/not in budget
Turnover - employees leave once trained
Employees aren't interested in training
Finding employees to train
The locations where employees work are not near the training
English is a second language for many of our employees - language barrier
The length of training that is required
The labour force is uneducated/unskilled
Employees don't need training - they are fully trained
The seasonal nature of the industry
Lack of internal trainers to administer the training
Consistency of training
Communicating effectively with staff about their training needs
Other
Unsure
None
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Employers
%
26%
14%
12%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
5%
9%
95
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Comments
‣ “Front line employees are not very motivated when it comes to training. They would like to learn as
they work. Another challenge we have is that different employees learn at different speeds and
comprehension.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
‣ “The biggest challenge is employees’s attitudes towards training.” - Construction
‣ “The company has a training centre but they don't always use it or give consistent training.” Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “The challenge with training is just the rapid rate of change in the industry. It can be difficult keeping
up with those changes.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We have a variety of specialized positions, so it's hard to know what training will be suitable for
those. We know what they have to do to get their designations, but not how to advise employees to
pursue training for their position after that. That's the challenge of the new CPA program. The CPA
Western School of Business is the main school right now, but it looks like other universities in Alberta
will start offering Master's programs for accounting soon. We won't know which programs at which
other schools will be good for a few years. We don't know how to advise our students during the
progression of these changes. We are in a transition period right now because of that.” - Finance,
Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “It's difficult to say because we have branches at numerous locations. The training at this location is
pretty good. The problem is when we get someone from another location that doesn't receive the same
training.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We're a non-profit, so it's budget. That's why we're using the Canada-Alberta Job Grant.” - Health
Care & Social Assistance
‣ “When I put an individual through training, I book them in for the free online course and sometimes
they don't activate their registration or take the course in the allotted three months. That can be a
problem because I have to keep asking them to do it and in three months that registration expires so I
have to re-register them.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “The way our structure and contract is designed with Alberta Health Services, their expectation is
because we have a full time educator on staff all of our training will be in house and on work time.
However, there are certainly outside courses staff could benefit from. Our challenge is having the
financial resources to be able to send them for continuing education.” - Health Care & Social
Assistance
‣ “The cultural background and language comprehension of candidates can make training difficult.” Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We have a job shadowing process of learning, which is a pretty good system that doesn't present a
lot of other challenges. It allows employees to ask co-workers questions over the supervisors, so
they're not as embarrassed to learn.” - Manufacturing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
96
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “A lack of geomatics training facilities, so a lack of industry specific training for us to send
employees to.” - Manufacturing
‣ “I can honestly say we've been doing this for 30 years and language is probably the only challenge to
training our employees.” - Manufacturing
‣ “With multiple trainers, the challenge becomes consistency in training.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “Commodity prices have severely limited our training.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “Employees don’t even want to work, much less go to training.” - Other
‣ “There's not a lot of very specific job related training for us out there. Our service is seismic so it is
highly specialized, but we often end up doing more general training because that's what's available to
us.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “I would say the job specific applications of training. We hire a range of positions that need
customized training.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “There's no school of rail car repair. The training is hands on and it takes a lot of time.” Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We are governed by the federal government, so it's not difficult because there's a rigid training
program already in place for us.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “Truck driving needs to be recognized as a Red Seal trade and skilled labour. It's not an unskilled job
at all and the responsibility and liability is high. It's so important to our economy. If there is nobody
pulling consumer product nobody will have anything to buy in the store. The youth don't want to do it
because it's hard work and long hours in this industry. The immigrants we respect greatly, but they
must be assisted in learning written and spoken English before they're out there on the road.” Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “The devotion employees want to give to the job. If they don't like it first day, they don't bother to
show up for the second day. That is a waste of training resources.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade
Employers indicated they provide training or pay for training in a variety of areas.
The top areas in which employers either
provide training or pay for training are new
employee orientation (74 per cent),
management and supervisory skills (67 per
cent), professional and technical training (65
per cent) and occupational health and safety (65
per cent). Forty per cent of the employers either
provide or pay for training in basic skills
(numeracy/literacy).
In#which#of#the#following#areas#does#your#company#
either#provide#training#or#pay#for#training?#
New$employee$orientaBon$
Management$and$supervisory$skills$
Professional$and$technical$training$
OccupaBonal$health$and$safety$
Equipment$
Product$knowledge$
Customer$service/relaBons$
IT/computer$training$
Quality$
Team$building$skills$
ExecuBve$development$
Sales$
Interpersonal$skills$
Basic$skills$3$numeracy/literacy$
74%$
67%$
66%$
65%$
59%$
53%$
52%$
49%$
47%$
47%$
46%$
43%$
42%$
40%$
0%$
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
20%$
40%$
60%$
80%$
97
EMPLOYER SURVEY
Comments
‣ “We have our own online university and we are partnered with universities, so we have many training
resources.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We offer a lot of informal coaching and counseling on a daily basis for interpersonal and team
building. Our management team averages 13 years experience, so training there is minimal. Customer
service and relations is very important.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We can't pay our employees while they're training, so we do none of this.” - Health Care & Social
Assistance
‣ “We offer management and supervisory skills, professional and technical training, team building,
executive development, and computer training internally and externally. The rest we offer internally
and only as required.” - Manufacturing
‣ “We offer first aid and confined space training. Team building is really only for management. With all
of the temporary foreign workers we employ, we focus a lot on basic skills. If you had asked me 10
years ago, basic skills would not have been a consideration.” - Manufacturing
‣ “This year, there's not the budget for this.” - Mining & Oil & Gas
‣ “Our training could potentially be across the board. For employees who wish to go to school or do a
course, we pay 50%. In any areas of interest in sales, we will train. We will also train in specialty
areas within their current position. We focus on supporting continuing education that will benefit their
position and therefore the corporation.” - Other
‣ “We have employee spending accounts for training.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We go through a thorough training process to make sure they understand rules of the road, safety,
and standards. It's really about public, personal and company safety.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Employers have responded to the difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last
12 months by increasing investment in training.
As discussed earlier, employers have responded to the difficulty recruiting qualified employees in a
variety of ways. In terms of training, 38 per cent of the 91 employers reported they increased
investment in in-house training, 12 per cent increased investment in third-party training, and 11 per
cent applied for a Canada-Alberta Job Grant. The Canada-Alberta Job Grant offers funding toward the
cost of training provided by eligible third-party trainers. The total cost of training is shared between the
Government of Canada and employers.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
98
EMPLOYER SURVEY
How has your company responded to the difficulty recruiting qualified employees?
Response to hiring difficulties
Employers
%
Increased recruiting efforts
76%
Did not fill the job opening
66%
Increased workload for current workers
52%
Increased investment in training provided by in-house staff
38%
Hired a less qualified applicant
37%
Hired contingent workers, including temps, contractors and freelancers
31%
Increased wages/benefits to attract more applicants
23%
Applied for/hired temporary foreign workers
21%
Targeted underutilized or new talent pools, such as mature workers, stay at home parents, persons with disabilities,
21% Aboriginals, etc.
Partnered with educational institutions to ensure programs develop candidates with the right skills
19%
Redeployed employees to new roles where their skills were more needed
18%
Outsourced the work
15%
Increased investment in training provided by a third-party
12%
Applied for a Canada-Alberta Job Grant
11%
Redesigned the job to change the required skills
10%
Inceased networking opportunities
3%
Downsized the company
2%
Started actively hiring out of province
2%
Other
2%
Cancelled the position
1%
Employee referral program
1%
Nothing
1%
Note: 91 employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees.
* Mature workers, stay at home parents, persons with disabilities, Aboriginal peoples, etc.
Comments
‣ “We join job fairs. We hire unskilled people and train them.” - Construction
‣ “We try to do some internal training to move people into the next position or use third party
recruiters.” - Construction
‣ “That's tricky. There's basically not much you can do except try to get people move from one firm to
another or hire a junior and train them in house.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We basically have to do internal training. We take someone with limited or no experience and we
train them up ourselves.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We are usually hiring people who just graduated from university and we have very good relationship
with those schools. Tax is a specialized field though, so we go to recruitment agencies and we offer a
better package. All our people have to go through training modules to get their designation and we
have internal training too.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “It simply means we have to spend more time looking for qualified people and training our internal
people.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “We try to train people in house, but it's difficult finding the right employee to invest in.” Manufacturing
‣ “We're still looking to be honest. We have done internal training to get our current employees up to a
higher level, but we still need the senior roles. We have hired temporary foreign workers, but not for
the technical specialized roles.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We're looking at expanding our training programs. We applied for the Canada-Alberta Job Grant to
help with training. We bring in third party trainers now.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
99
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “We haven't really done much. We fill positions with who is available to hire and do our best to do in
house training.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “I think where we maybe differ from other companies in our industry is going above and beyond with
internal training. We will hire people straight out of class 1 driving schools with no experience and we
will work with them to make them road worthy.” - Transportation & Warehousing
Canada-Alberta Job Grant
All 200 employers were asked if they have ever applied for or received or have plans to apply for a
Canada-Alberta Job Grant, regardless of whether or not they had difficulty recruiting qualified
employees in the last 12 months. Fourteen per cent of the employers reported they have applied for a
grant in the past, or have plans to apply, 84 per cent said they have not applied or have no plans to and
2 per cent were unsure.
Of the 84 per cent (168 employers) that have
never applied for or do not have plans to apply
for a Canada-Alberta Job Grant, 39 per cent
said they have never heard of it and 11 per cent
said they don’t know much about it. About onefifth of the employers said their training needs
are already taken care of and 15 per cent said
they don’t need to train. In addition, 13 per cent
of the employers think applying for a Job Grant
is too much of an administrative burden, it is
not a decision they can make (management/
head office decision), or they don’t think they
qualify for a grant.
Reasons'company'has'never'applied'for'or'has'no'plans'to''
apply'for'a'Canada5Alberta'Job'Grant'
Never#heard#of#it#
39%#
Training#needs#are#already#taken#care#of#
19%#
Don't#need#to#train#
15%#
Administra4ve#burden#
13%#
Management/head#office#decision#
13%#
Don't#think#we#qualify#
13%#
Don't#know#much#about#it#
11%#
Don't#have#the#budget#for#training/too#costly#
3%#
Not#hiring#at#this#4me#
1%#
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
Comments
‣ “We are in the process of applying for a school grant. I don't think we've heard of this one.” Construction
‣ “Our head office is not local, so they might not know about it.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate &
Leasing
‣ “We are aware of it. Perhaps we will apply next year.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
‣ “We might consider it with more information.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “I would have applied had I heard of it.” - Health Care & Social Assistance
‣ “I received the information. Our company doesn't qualify. Our production learning curve is next to
nothing because the work is simple.” - Manufacturing
‣ “It does not apply to us. We just need labourers. We only have one department, welding, where we
need journeymen.” - Manufacturing
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
100
EMPLOYER SURVEY
‣ “I didn't know about it, but would like to find out more about this.” - Manufacturing
‣ “In our belief, we just haven't qualified for those types of things in the past. We don't want to take the
time to look into that again.” - Other
‣ “Back in 2007-08 we did get a Making Spaces grant, but haven't applied for grants since then.” Other
‣ “No, but we received a Canada Summer Jobs grant for one position this year.” - Other
‣ “Generally speaking, as an engineering firm we recruit straight out of university for junior roles.
Senior roles are highly specialized and technical, so it's more of a matter of convenience to hire
people with training and experience.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
‣ “We just do all of our training in house, so we have no need to use it. We also have company flight
simulators and a company university for pilots.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “The owner has asked me to look into it.” - Transportation & Warehousing
‣ “We have plans to apply. We only found about it this June through linking with Alberta Works.” Wholesale & Retail Trade
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
101
JOB BANK ANALYSIS
This section provides a summary of jobs posted to the Job Bank in the
second quarter of 2015.
Job Bank
Analysis
Service Canada’s Job Bank is the country’s largest bi-lingual online listing of job opportunities in
Canada. Job seekers are able to view thousands of new job opportunities across Canada every day and
access online tools such as Job Match, Job Alert, Resume Builder and Career Navigator free of charge.
The site also has a training and careers section, which helps job seekers identify career options, as well
as provides information on trends, employment prospects and salary ranges of occupations. Employers
have access to a variety of HR management information resources and can advertise and manage their
job postings online at their own convenience free of charge.
City of Calgary
For the City of Calgary, there were 7,785 job
postings154 on the Job Bank in the second
quarter of 2015, advertising for a total of
18,359 positions. This was down from 21,540
positions the previous quarter and down
significantly from 28,177 positions in the
second quarter of 2014. Forty-one per cent of
the positions were sales and service occupations
and 28 per cent were trades, transport and
equipment operators occupations. The top five
occupations advertised were food counter
attendants, kitchen helpers and related
occupations (1,224 positions), cooks (1,200
positions), food service supervisors (889
positions), retail salespersons and sales clerks
(756 positions) and truck drivers (729 positions).
154
Number of Positions by Occupation
Q2 2014 and 2015, City of Calgary
Q2!2014!
Sales!&!Service!
Trades,!Transport!&!Equip.!Operators!
Business,!Finance!&!AdministraFon!
Management!
Natural!&!Applied!Sciences!
Processing,!Manufacturing!&!UFliFes!
Primary!Industry!
Art,!Culture,!RecreaFon!&!Sport!
Social!Science,!Educ.,!Gov't!&!Religion!
Health!
Q2!2015!
!5,229!!
!7,613!!
!8,839!!
!11,634!!
!1,954!!
!1,490!!
!1,093!!
!916!!
!1,240!!
!794!!
!1,419!!
!724!!
!759!!
!624!!
!454!!
!418!!
!537!!
!408!!
!248!!
!143!!
!-!!!!
!3,000!!
!6,000!!
!9,000!! !12,000!!
Total job postings are all unduplicated postings appearing in the Job Bank each week. This figure includes postings from
the previous weeks that have been reposted as well as new job postings.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
102
JOB BANK ANALYSIS
Communities Surrounding Calgary
For the communities surrounding Calgary,155
Number of Positions by Occupation
there were 1,929 job postings on the Job Bank
Q2 2014 and 2015, Surrounding Communities
in the second quarter of 2015, advertising for a
total of 5,315 positions. This was down from
Q2!2014! Q2!2015!
6,482 positions the previous quarter and down
!2,740!!
Sales!&!Service!
from 7,615 positions in the second quarter of
!2,068!!
!2,526!!
Trades,!Transport!&!Equip.!Operators!
!1,717!!
2014. Thirty-nine per cent of the positions were
!637!!
Primary!Industry!
!489!!
sales and service occupations and 32 per cent
!803!!
Processing,!Manufacturing!&!U8li8es!
!477!!
!158!!
Management!
were trades, transport and equipment operators
!183!!
!381!!
Natural!&!Applied!Sciences!
!160!!
occupations. The top five occupations
!192!!
Business,!Finance!&!Administra8on!
!106!!
advertised were truck drivers (551 positions),
!92!!
Health!
!43!!
!54!!
Social!Science,!Educ.,!Gov't!&!Religion!
food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and
!41!!
!32!!
Art,!Culture,!Recrea8on!&!Sport!
!31!!
related occupations (342 positions), industrial
!-!!!! !500!! !1,000!!!1,500!!!2,000!!!2,500!!!3,000!!
butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and
related workers (320 positions), cooks (277
positions) and landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers (251 positions).
Banff/Canmore Area
For the Banff/Canmore area, there were 735 job
postings on the Job Bank in the second quarter
of 2015, advertising for a total of 2,125
positions. This was down from 2,552 positions
the previous quarter and down significantly
from 3,323 positions in the second quarter of
2014. Sales and service occupations accounted
for 91 per cent of the total positions in the
second quarter of 2015.
The top five occupations advertised in the
second quarter of 2015 were food counter
attendants, kitchen helpers and related
occupations (595 positions), food service
supervisors (406 positions), light duty cleaners
(231 positions), cooks, (141 positions) and retail
salespersons and sales clerks (87 positions).
155
Number of Positions by Occupation
Q2 2014 and 2015, Banff/Canmore Area
Q2!2014!
Sales!&!Service!
Trades,!Transport!&!Equip.!Operators!
Management!
Primary!Industry!
Natural!&!Applied!Sciences!
Business,!Finance!&!Admin.!
Social!Science,!Educ.,!Gov't!&!Religion!
Art,!Culture,!RecreaAon!&!Sport!
Processing,!Manufacturing!&!UAliAes!
Health!
Including but not limited to Airdrie, Chestermere, Cochrane, High River and Okotoks.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Q2!2015!
!1,926!!
!2,950!!
!120!!
!83!!
!85!!
!50!!
!11!!
!16!!
!18!!
!14!!
!32!!
!13!!
!8!!
!9!!
!66!!
!7!!
!11!!
!4!!
!22!!
!3!!
!-!!!! !500!! !1,000!!!1,500!!!2,000!!!2,500!!!3,000!!
103
JOB BANK ANALYSIS
Calgary (city) Positions - Q2 2015156
NOC Code Occupation
6641
6242
6212
6421
7411
1453
7271
6661
7452
6474
8612
7611
6671
7284
9619
0631
6211
5254
6411
7421
0621
7322
7282
4212
7291
6453
6622
7321
6623
2171
2225
6215
6611
6651
1471
0711
7244
6662
7312
0611
8431
7283
7441
8256
7294
156
Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations
Cooks
Food Service Supervisors
Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks
Truck Drivers
Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks
Carpenters
Light Duty Cleaners
Material Handlers
Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers
Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers
Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers
Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport
Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers
Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities
Restaurant and Food Service Managers
Retail Trade Supervisors
Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness
Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical)
Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane)
Retail Trade Managers
Motor Vehicle Body Repairers
Concrete Finishers
Social and community service workers
Roofers and Shinglers
Food and Beverage Servers
Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers
Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers
Other sales related occupations
Information Systems Analysts and Consultants
Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists
Cleaning Supervisors
Cashiers
Security Guards and Related Occupations
Shippers and Receivers
Construction Managers
Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers
Specialized Cleaners
Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics
Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers
General Farm Workers
Tilesetters
Residential and Commercial Installers and Servicers
Supervisors, Landscape and Horticulture
Painters and decorators (except interior decorators)
Only occupations with 100 or more positions are shown in the table.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Positions
1,224
1,200
889
756
729
693
539
445
428
386
383
370
354
324
316
273
240
231
227
223
218
218
209
203
184
180
172
172
162
136
136
133
128
124
115
114
112
111
111
107
107
106
104
103
100
104
JOB BANK ANALYSIS
Communities Surrounding Calgary Positions - Q2 2015 157
NOC Code Occupation
7411
6641
9462
6242
8612
6474
6212
6421
7611
6651
7321
7284
6411
7271
7291
9617
0631
7283
6453
6251
6661
2225
8253
7421
7282
8431
6211
0621
6233
6611
7245
7322
7443
8432
7312
6215
7219
6622
8256
7452
2221
7442
1122
9619
9613
1453
6662
157
Positions
Truck Drivers
Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations
Industrial Butchers and Meat Cutters, Poultry Preparers and Related Workers
Cooks
Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers
Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers
Food Service Supervisors
Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks
Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers
Security Guards and Related Occupations
Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers
Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers
Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical)
Carpenters
Roofers and Shinglers
Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing
Restaurant and Food Service Managers
Tilesetters
Food and Beverage Servers
Butchers and Meat Cutters - Retail and Wholesale
Light Duty Cleaners
Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists
Farm Supervisors and Specialized Livestock Workers
Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane)
Concrete Finishers
General Farm Workers
Retail Trade Supervisors
Retail Trade Managers
Retail and Wholesale Buyers
Cashiers
Telecommunications Line and Cable Workers
Motor Vehicle Body Repairers
Automotive Mechanical Installers and Servicers
Nursery and Greenhouse Workers
Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics
Cleaning Supervisors
Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers
Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers
Supervisors, Landscape and Horticulture
Material Handlers
Biological Technologists and Technicians
Waterworks and Gas Maintenance Workers
Professional occupations in business management consulting
Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities
Labourers in Chemical Products Processing and Utilities
Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks
Specialized Cleaners
Only occupations with 20 or more positions are shown in the table.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
551
342
320
277
251
242
240
164
128
120
107
98
92
90
87
83
75
75
72
70
70
67
67
65
63
61
60
59
58
48
43
40
40
40
37
34
34
33
32
31
27
26
25
24
21
20
20
105
JOB BANK ANALYSIS
Banff/Canmore Area Positions - Q2 2015158
NOC Code Occupation
6641
6212
6661
6242
6421
6435
6622
6442
6441
6241
6453
0631
6611
6681
6671
6216
6211
6215
8253
0621
6623
6663
7281
2225
7282
7412
6672
7251
0632
5254
7241
4214
6483
6682
7271
7272
7445
7411
158
Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations
Food Service Supervisors
Light Duty Cleaners
Cooks
Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks
Hotel Front Desk Clerks
Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers
Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides
Tour and Travel Guides
Chefs
Food and Beverage Servers
Restaurant and Food Service Managers
Cashiers
Dry Cleaning and Laundry Occupations
Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport
Other Service Supervisors
Retail Trade Supervisors
Cleaning Supervisors
Farm Supervisors and Specialized Livestock Workers
Retail Trade Managers
Other sales related occupations
Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents
Bricklayers
Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists
Concrete Finishers
Bus Drivers and Subway and Other Transit Operators
Other Attendants in Accommodation and Travel
Plumbers
Accommodation Service Managers
Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness
Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System)
Early Childhood Educators and Assistants
Pet Groomers and Animal Care Workers
Ironing, Pressing and Finishing Occupations
Carpenters
Cabinetmakers
Other Repairers and Servicers
Truck Drivers
Only occupations with 5 or more positions are shown in the table.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Positions
595
406
231
141
87
81
54
42
36
34
33
24
24
24
20
18
17
17
13
12
12
12
12
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
106
APPENDIX A
Survey Methodology
Appendix A:
Survey
Methodology
The Q2 2015 Calgary and Area Employer Survey is based on responses to a telephone questionnaire
conducted in April, May and June 2015 of Calgary and area employers with 50 - 99 employees
(medium-sized employers). Following are the number of respondents from each industry sector.
Industry
Mining & Oil & Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Other
Total
Number of
Respondents
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
200
The ‘Other’ industry category includes a variety of companies from the remainder of the industry
categories: Agriculture, Utilities, Information & Culture, Management of Companies, Administrative &
Support Services, Educational Services, Other Services and Public Administration.
It should be noted that the method of sample selection provides a good cross-section of opinion.
Nevertheless, given the size of the sample, the statistical reliability of the survey is limited, particularly
when the data is reported by industry. The value of this survey, however, goes beyond the data captured
by the questionnaire. The telephone interview allows companies to expand on their responses, which
provides invaluable information and comments that cannot be measured quantitatively.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
107
APPENDIX B
Employer Survey Occupation Results
Appendix B: Employer
Survey Occupation Results
Twenty-eight per cent of the employers laid off approximately 266 workers in the three
months prior to their survey. Sixty of the layoffs were in the mining and oil and gas
industry.
Industry
Occupation
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Subtotal
Construction
Servers
Subtotal
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Subtotal
Health Care & Social Assistance
Subtotal
Manufacturing
Subtotal
Mining & Oil & Gas
Subtotal
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Labourer
Drivers
Consultants
Field
Drywall
Designers
Insurance
Social Workers
Front Line
Manager of Shelter
Labourer
Shop
Trades
Shop Supervisor
Material Handlers
Quality Control
Engineer
Productivity Manager
Buyer
Office Administration
Not Specified
Field
Administative
Engineer
Health & Safety
Technical/Professional
Environment
Graphic Designer
Contractors
Software Development
QA
Number of
Layoffs
3
3
17
6
6
5
5
4
43
10
10
3
2
1
6
19
6
6
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
5
45
14
10
9
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
60
108
APPENDIX B
Industry
Occupation
Other
Accounting
Customer Service
Production
Sub Total
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Subtotal
Transportation & Warehousing
Subtotal
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Subtotal
Grand Total
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Shipping & Receiving
Data Management
Truck Driving
Engineers
NDT Technicians
Chemical Engineers
Not Specified
Accountant
Plant Supervisor
Drivers
Sales
Finance
Office
Mechanics
Clerks
Sales
Drivers
Number of
Layoffs
2
2
1
5
15
11
10
8
4
3
3
1
1
56
20
4
4
2
2
32
3
2
1
6
266
109
APPENDIX B
Fifty-six per cent of the employers had a total of 435 vacant positions that needed to be
filled.
NOC Code
Occupation
7511
Truck drivers
3413
Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates
6731
Light duty cleaners
1111
Financial auditors and accountants
4212
Community and social service workers
6221
Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade
6513
Food and beverage servers
6525
Hotel front desk clerks
7611
Construction trades helpers and labourers
7282
Concrete finishers
7521
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
711
Construction managers
6232
Real estate agents and salespersons
9617
Labourers in food, beverage and tobacco processing
1223
Personnel and recruitment officers
2173
Software engineers and designers
7321
Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers
2132
Mechanical engineers
2145
Petroleum engineers
6711
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations
2282
User support technicians
5254
Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness
6313
Other service supervisors
6552
Customer service, information and related clerks
7312
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
7314
Railway carmen/women
8612
Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers
1521
Shippers and receivers
6621
Service station attendants
7243
Power system electricians
7271
Carpenters
7322
Motor vehicle body repairers
8615
Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers
9533
Other wood products assemblers and inspectors
Note: Only occupations with 4 or more vacancies are shown.
Calgary and Area Labour Market - 2015 Q2 Report
Vacant
Positions
47
46
22
18
13
13
12
12
12
10
10
9
9
9
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4