Presentation Overview
Research and Policy Links
What we are telling Ministers
about an ageing society
Research role: adherence to the
UK Code and the structures we
work within
Successes and limitations
Equality and Social Need Research Branch
Informing the development of Strategies:
•
•
•
•
•
Anti-poverty (LTO)
Gender
Children and Young People
PSI Groups on disability and lone parents
Equality Statistics – LFS and the 9 equality
categories
• Annual research programme (ESNSG)
Older People
• Production of statistical compendium to inform
‘Ageing in an Inclusive Society’ – updated 2009
• Barriers to essential services
• ESRC fellowship – older people in rural areas
(qualitative project with some demographic trend
information included)
• Compendium not agreed by Executive
• What have we presented to Ministers?
Pension Age Dependents per 1,000 Persons of Working Age
Dependents per 1,000 Persons of Working
Age
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Year
Working age and pensionable age populations based on state pension age as currently defined; 65 years for men and 60 years for w omen.
Maturing Societies
Sarah Harper/Jaco Hoffman (Oxford Inst.)
40
35
30
25
Europe 0-14
Europe 60+
20
15
10
5
0
1950
1980
2000
2025
2050
The % increase of older population in developing countries is much higher
than that in developed countries
% increase in elderly population between 1990 and 2025
Indonesia
Colombia
Kenya
Thailand
Mexico
Zimbabwe
Brazil
India
China
US
Germany
France
UK
Uruguay
Sweden
0
100
200
300
400
Total dependency ratios for
UK
80
70
60
50
65+yrs
40
<15 yrs
30
20
10
0
50
9
1
60
9
1
70
9
1
80
9
1
90
9
1
66% increase in old-age dependency ratios
between 2005 and 2050
00
0
2
10
0
2
20
0
2
30
0
2
40
0
2
50
0
2
Total dependency ratios for
Japan
120
100
80
60
40
20
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
0
150% increase in old-age dependency ratios between 2005 and
2050
65+yrs
<15yrs
Research and Information Strategy
• Agreement by the Executive and foreword
signed by FM and dFM
• Took over a year to agree
• Publication rights and report quality issues
• Annual report to Executive covering:
• Policy relevance, costs, impact on policy
Successes
• Strategy documents underpinned by evidence : Poverty,
Gender, Childcare
• FMdFM/Executive endorsement of research strategy and
annual report on value and impact
• Much activity within the sector (CAP, OP Advocate, ASP,
CARDI, Age Concern Help the Aged)
• Better understanding among SpAds of the evidence
• Assembly Committee familiarity with and use of our data
• UK Statistics Authority – ONS not a ministerial
department, NI Executive agreed the structures
Limitations
• Departments do not always fully exploit the policy
relevance of their data – departmental business needs
take precedence – new training being developed
• Universities do not always fully exploit the policy
relevance of government data – academic output
influenced by the research assessment exercise
• Sir Gus O’Donnell – statisticians should be ‘boring’, stats
without context are boring
• Policy officials focus on strategy and professionals tend
to focus on measurement
• People use evidence selectively – evidence does not
always change opinions
Rights based and budget analysis approaches
need to be supplemented with research illustrating
economic interdependence
• Children who fail at school need more support if
GVA is to improve
• GVA needs to improve to support an ageing
population therefore:
• Child well being is related to pensioner poverty
• The new childcare strategy has implications for
(particularly female) pensioner poverty
% living in households below 50% and 70% of UK median income by lifecycle and region
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
50%
70%
50%
70%
50%
70%
50%
70%
50%
70%
NI (UK median)
12
29
12
30
12
29
11
32
11
28
UK
9
26
9
26
9
25
10
26
11
26
13
34
12
36
13
35
13
39
10
33
10
32
11
32
10
32
11
33
12
33
11
24
11
24
10
24
10
27
10
23
9
21
9
21
9
21
9
22
9
21
NI (UK median)
15
35
16
39
16
39
14
41
18
41
UK
10
34
10
34
9
32
11
33
13
35
All individuals
Children
NI (UK median)
UK
WA adults
NI (UK median)
UK
Pensioners