5iW15.0
THE FRTNDS OF BIBI (FOBs)
"THE NEw MIDDLE EAST"
vs.
LEON T. HADAR
intellectuals,
who occupiedtopposiLed by a group of neoconservative
an antipeace coalitionhas emerged
tionsin theReagan administration,
withtheLikudpartyand itsleader
in the U.S.capital. Workingtogether
"Bibi"
and
using
powerfuloutletsin Congress,the
Netanyahu
Benjamin
media, and thinktanks,theseFriendsofBibi (FOBs) have been instrumentalin thelobbyingefforts
aimed at scuttling
thePLO-Israeliaccords
and in buildingsupportfor
thenewLikudgovernment
in Israel.Thisarticle examinestheevolutionofthese"neocons"as aforce in AmericanpoliinfluencemayaffecttheUnitedStatesand the
ticsand howtheirgrowing
peace process.
lobbyin Washingin thehallsofthepro-Israeli
ton,wheretheNew Year, 1996,had broughtnothingbutbad news fortheofficials of the AmericanIsrael Public Affairs
Committee(AIPAC). Withpeace
arriving
slowlybut surelyto the New MiddleEast and withArabsand Israelis
withtheUnitedStatesto achievecommongoals,some observworkingtogether
ers were asking:Who reallyneeds thoseguys,anyway?The new realitiesapraisond'etreand
pearedto be wearingawayAIPAC'spoliticaland organizational
made AIPACofficials
face veryreal concernsabout how to maintaintheirjobs
and influence.
IT WAS THE WINTER OF DISCONTENT
THE "NEW' AIPAC
therewas no longera need to mobilizethe
Indeed,giventhenew situation,
lobby'stroopson CapitolHillto blockU.S.armssales to theArabstates,demonize Palestinianleader YasirArafat,
or thwart
Americandiplomaticpressureon
Israel.Ifanything,
Israelitselfwas now doingmanythingsthatprobablywould
have been targeted
foran aggressiveoppositioncampaignbyAIPAConlya few
monthsearlier.Thus,forexample,theIsraeliswere urgingtheClintonadminiswithAmericanpromisesofecotration
and lobbyingCongressto followthrough
nomic aid to the PalestinianAuthority
(PA) and to Jordanand were putting
AIPACvillain,
notto burnbridgeswithanotherfavorite
pressureon Washington
Syria'sHafizal-Asad.
theOslo II accord
peace process,and in particular
Moreover,theArab-Israeli
of AIPAC,
betweenIsraeland the PLO, was beginningto reducethe centrality
T. HADAR is a Washington-based
journalist
who reportson international
politicsand
econornicsforU.S. and foreignpublications.
LEON
Journalof PalestineStudiesXKVI,no. 1 (Autumn1996),pp. 89-97.
90
JOURNAL OF PALESTNE STUDIES
And not unlike
Jewishcommunity.
in theAmerican
indeed even of Israelitself,
comand theheads ofthemilitary-industrial
veterancold warriors
Washington's
Jews,particuofthefalloftheBerlinWall,manyAmerican
plex in theaftermath
and some of the more hawkish
larlythe ostensibleleadersof the community
themaindrivingforcebehindAmerica's
figures
who had constituted
intellectual
supportforIsrael,werefeelingthattheirserviceswere no longerneeded. Many
seemed in thegripsof a bad case of the"NewMiddleEastblues."
YitzhakRabin
The new trendfirst
surfacedback in 1992,whenPrimeMinister
thathe would conduct
duringa visitto Washington
made cleartoAIPACofficials
withtheWhiteHouse. He wentso faras to demandthatthey
diplomacydirectly
stayout of his way,leavingmanyof them,includingthosewho had been cozy
shockedand dismayed.
Likudgovernment,
withtheformer
directlinesof commuThe Laborgovernment
thussucceededin establishing
nicationwithboththeBush and ClintonWhiteHouse. It even sidelinedformer
MartinIndyk,subsequently
selectedby Clintonto serveas theU.S.
AIPACofficial
theheads of AIPACand its
roleeliminated,
ambassadorin Israel.Theirprimary
begancastingaboutfornew causesand missions.Iran,allegedleaderof
satellites
movementseen as a threatto
the putativeworldwideIslamicfundamentalist
Israel,emergedas a convenienttargetforAIPAC'snew crusades.(One might
Councilaide,
notethatitwas Indyk,in hispreviouspositionas NationalSecurity
policy"aimedatisolatingIranand
who first
launchedtheU.S."dualcontainment
and economically.)
Iraq diplomatically
The reinvigorated
lobbyinggroup,cleansedof manyof itspro-Likudoperatives and acting in alliance with the powerfulRepublicanSenatorAlfonse
moved
D'Amatoof New York,thechairmanoftheSenateBankingCommittee,
last yearto push throughCongresssweepingsanctionsagainstTeheran.First,
in persuadingtheWhiteHouse to stopConoco Inc.,the
AIPACwas instrumental
energyunitofDuPont,fromgoingaheadwithplansto helpdeveloptwoIranian
thepresidentannouncedhisdecisionto imposetrade
oil fields.Notsurprisingly,
sanctionsagainstIranduringa WorldJewishCongressconferencein New York
in May 1995.
legislators
(includpressurefromD'Amatoand othersympathetic
By utilizing
RelationsCommittee,
Benjamin
ingthenew chairmanoftheHouse International
approach
Gilman),AIPACpressuredtheWhiteHouse to adopt a moreforceful
thatpunishedthird
boycott"
towardtradewithIran,notablya formof"secondary
partiestradingwithIran.The proposedD'Amatolegislationimposedtradesancto develop oil and gas
tionson foreigncompaniesthatassistIranin its effort
ban on U.S. government
purchasesfrom
projects.It also calledfora mandatory
and
licenses
their
with
to
subsidiaries,
Iran,denyingexport
companiesdealing
whileinitially
opposed to some
refusing
entryto theirexecutives.The president,
ended up embracinga modifiedformof it,whichhe
aspectsof thelegislation,
thelegislationis verysimilarto the"secondaryboysignedin August.In effect,
cott"imposedby theArabLeague againstIsraelwhichprovokedsuch outrage
in bothCongressand theWhiteHouse.
and indignation
THE FRIENDsOF BIBi
(FOBs) vs. "THE NEW MiDDLE
EAsT"
91
NETANYAHu:CuRNG THE "PFACE DEPEsSIoN"
The anti-Irancampaignmayhave allowed the AIPAClobbyiststo continue
raisingfundsfromsupportersaroundtheUnitedStatesand demonstrating
their
power on CapitolHill-and therebyto securetheirjobs and budgets.Still,the
campaignin and of itselfdid not do muchto alleviatethe "New MiddleEast
blues"goingaroundthelobbycommunity.
In a way,thefeelingofgloomand doom thatseemed to engulfmanyveteran
a Zionistversionoftheend of
Israelsupporters
reflected
f
history
paradigmproposedduringthefinalstagesofthe
d
..a.sem
cold warby philosopherFrancisFukuyama.The Zionist
versionwould involvetheend ofa century-long
histori- engu many.............
cal epoch dominatedby the Holocaust,the establish...er
. ......
ZIOntStV
mentof the stateof Israel,and theArab-Israeli
.... ..
conflict.
k .s m n4 gf
werepredicting
thatintegration
ofIsrael a
Manyanalysts
.
intotheMiddleEastwas goingto lead to the"normaliza- .
-.r ...ig
.
tion"of thatstateand itsentryintoa "post-Zionist"
era.
In thelong run,thatcould onlymean a growingculturaland even politicalsplit
betweenIsraeland theAmerican-Jewish
community.
As a matterof fact,when thesecular,liberal,and dovishyoungerleadersof
Haim Ramonand Yossi Beilin,were calling
theLaborparty,includingMinisters
ofIsraelidogmas(e.g.,oppositionto an independent
Palestinfora reassessment
ian state,Israeliwithdrawal
fromtheGolan Heights,long-heldpositionsonJerusalem and theJewishLaw of Return),theyfoundto theirsurprisethatsome of
theirmorestrident
oppositioncame not fromTel Avivand Jerusalembutfrom
New Yorkand Washington-from
leadersofJewishorganizations,
congressional
staffmembers,top thinktanks,and the editorialboardsof majornewspapers.It
was thusthatin late 1995,SaudiArabia'sambassadorto theUnitedStatesfound
himself
in thepeculiarpositionofhavingto defendIsrael'speace diplomacyto a
leadersin New York.
skepticalgroupofAmerican-Jewish
ofAmerican
Whilepublicopinionpolls indicatedthatthemajority
Jewssupwhenit
portedtheLaborgovernment's
peace diplomacy,
supportwas very"soft"
oftheGolan Heightsand an independentPalestincame to issues likethefuture
ian state.Moreover,the opponentsof the peace process in the UnitedStates
were louder and more vocal than the supporters.The conservativeHeritage
withitsclose tiesto theRepublicanparty,became a
Foundationin Washington,
to makepeace withitsneighbors,while
majorforumforfoes of Israeliefforts
WilliamSafireand AM. Rosenthalof the New
leading columnists-including
and George Will of the Washington
York Times and CharlesKrauthammer
Post-seemed to have been transformed
intotheAmericanmedia'svoice of the
Likud.
Indeed,theIsraelipoliticalRightwas poised and readyto take advantageof
thegrowinghostility
ProdtowardLaboramongmanyAmerican
Jewishfigures.
ded bymembersofLikudand theorthodoxreligiouspartiesin Israel,a powerful
pro-Israel/antipeace
lobbywas emergingin 1995 alongsidethemoretraditional
92
OF PALEsTNE STUDIES
JOURNAL
"new"AIPAC.The Likud'snew leader,the Americanizedtelegenicnewsbiter
BenjaminNetanyahu,
togetherwiththreeformerIsraelidiplomats(former
AmZalmanShoval,YoramEttinger,
bassadorto Washington
andYosefBen-Aharon),
traveledto theU.S. capitalseveraltimesto lobbylawmakersagainstLaborpoliaid to thePalestinians
cies,urgingthemto end U.S.financial
and to oppose sendingU.S.troopsto takepartin peacekeepingoperationson theGolan Heightsin
the event of an Israeli-Syrian
peace accord. Press releases fromNetanyahu's
Likudofficesin Tel Aviv,containing
thesame messages,werefaxeddailyto the
Timesand thePost.
The pro-Likud
coalitiontakingshape in Washington
included,amongothers,
almostall the major orthodoxgroups,the ZionistOrganizationof America,
Americansfora SafeIsrael,as well as new groupsand thinktanksin Israeland
theUnitedStates.Itreceivedvariousformsofsupportfromwhatmightbe called
the"American
FriendsofBibi"(FOBs): CosmeticsheirRonaldLauderand former
junk bond kingMichaelMilkenwere among those who providedfinancing,
whileinfluential
lawmakersand journalists,
includingLarryKingand Ted Koppel, assuredwide exposure."Strolling
triumphantly
on thestreetsofManhattan
betweeninterviews
at TheNew YorkTimesand CBS, he [Netanyahu]
attracted
throngs
ofgroupies,"wroteDavid Margolick
of VanityFair. So oftendid Netanyahuappearon "Nightline,"
accordingto Margolick,
thatwags began referring
to
"Ted Netanyahu"
and "BibiKoppel."
THE NEOCONS STRmK BACK
ButNetanyahu'sabilityto spreadtheLikudmessagein theNew York-Washon his supportfrompowerfuljouringtoncorridorwas not dependententirely
nalistsand billionaires
or on his talentforprojecting
to theAmericanpublican
imageofa "kinderand gentlerLikud"-a kindof "Shamirism
witha humanface."
Whathelped liftNetanyahuand the Likudto new prominencein Washington
was the GOP's 1994 congressionalcoup as well as his ties withthe so-called
neoconservative
intellectuals,
manyofwhomnow formthebackboneoftheReTies withthisgroup,which inpublicanparty'sforeignpolicyestablishment.
RichardPerle,JoshuaMuravchik,
and
cludesJeaneKirkpatrick,
FrankGaffney,
have
a
effect
on
the
of
Douglas Feith,could
major
future the U.S.-Israeli
relationship.
The neoconservatives'
powerstemsfromtheirabilityto setthepolicyagenda
inWashington.
Theirviewshave been playinga leadingrolein such prestigious
and the
thinktanksas theAmericanEnterprise
the Hudson Institute,
Institute,
outand theydominatesuchimportant
Manhattan
Institute,
Republican-oriented
and the
lets as the editorialpage of The Wall StreetJournal,Commentary,
Standard(a new conservative
Weekly
publicationeditedbyWilliamKristoland
of
sons
heoconservative
JohnPodhoretz,
gadfliesand FOBs IrvingKristoland
Norman Podhoretz,and financed by another FOB, media owner Rupert
Murdoch).
93
THE FRmiNsOF Bmi (FOBs) vs. "THENEW MIDDLE FAsr
the "neocons"occupied severaltop naDuringthe Reagan administration,
tionalsecurityand foreignpolicyposts,where,accordingto theirversionof
ofDefense
Secretary
figuresas former
events,theystoodup tosuch "anti-Israeli"
Nations,
to
the
United
ambassador
U.S.
then
was
Kirkpatrick
CasparWeinberger.
whereBibiwas servingas Israel'sspokesman.Theybothspenttheirtimeat the
UN headquartersbashingthe UN, the thirdworld,and pro-Soviet"terrorist
manyAmericansduring
groups"(read:thePLO).Indeed,accordingto Margolick,
ambassadorto
American
the
was
Bibi
thought
they
thatperiodtoldpollstersthat
to detheUN. Later,duringtheBush term,the"neocons"tried(unsuccessfully)
teamto use a $5-billionloan guaranBush-Baker
ofthe"Arabist"
railthestrategy
in theWestBank.Theywere also
tee to forceLikudto haltJewishsettlement
criticalofBush'srefusalto "go all theway"in DesertStormand invadeBaghdad.
/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~wr
Prime MinisterNetanyahuwith Ted Koppel on the set of Nigfie
October 1996. Photo is courtesyof TerryAshe/ABCNews.
2
The Bush-Baker strategy,which was in factdeveloped by a group of HebrewMideast experts led by Dennis Ross and Aaron Miller,
speaking American-Jewish
was instrumentalin the electoral defeatof Likud and the victoryof Labor thatled
to the PLO-Israel accord. That in tum resulted in the marginalizationof Netanyahu in Israel and contributedto the weakening of his neoconservative pals in
America.Some ofthe"4neocons"triedto jumpontoClinton's1992electionbandwagon, hoping to move the new president in a more interventionistapproach
around the world. Most of them,however, remained in the GOP camp, waiting
for their favorite son, former New York Congressman Jack Kemp (another
94
JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES
theclose cooperationbestaunchFOB), to runforpresidentin 1996.Certainly
tweenClintonand the Rabin-Peresteamover the openingto the PLO and the
new president'srefusalto adopt a more aggressiveapproachtowardIran and
Iraq ended up alienatingthe few "neocons"who had allied themselveswith
Clinton.
THE "LIKuDIZATION" OF THE GOP
and operatorshad playeda verylimitedrole in
thinkers
The neoconservative
theeventsleadingto theRepublicancongressionalvictoryin 1994,and foreign
policy issues were quite marginalizedin Newt Gingrich's"ContractWith
abilityto controlmanyof the GOP's reAmerica."But the neoconservatives'
to influencethe
searchand media outletsprovidedthemwithan opportunity
Mideastspin of theirpartyin Congress,imposingon it a clear pro-Likud
direction.
to reach an agreeHence, the Israeliaccord withthePLO and the attempts
mentwithSyriahave been portrayedby the neoconofth
unditsas a productofthemachinations
evtv
Atept%. rec cod
.a
occupyingboththeWhite
figures
wimpyand "left-wing"
Syra
teP i4"
with
office,where a
House and the Israeliprimeminister's
was thoughtto be
kind of save-the-whalesmentality
...~
a
..ft-..g.... e~
Arafat
and
to the"terrorists"
responsiblefor"pandering"
Asad. Nevermindthatitwas theRepublicanBush who
had opened the diplomaticdoor for the Israeli-PLO
role in the Oslo process,
had playedonlya supporting
that
Clinton
agreement,
who shook handswith
himself,
and thatitwas GeneralRabin,Mr.IsraeliSecurity
at theWhiteHouse.
PLO ChairmanArafat
tendenciesamongthemembersof the GOP freshExploitingtheisolationist
in chargeoftheDole presidenmen class in Congress,Douglas Feith,currently
heads Dole's foreignpolicy
tial campaign'sMiddle East "group"(Kirkpatrick
& Co. to rallytheirforces
incited
Gingrich
and
other
"neocons"
operation),
againstdispensingaid to the Palestiniansor sendingU.S. troopsto the Golan.
Whatwas not consideredwas thatotherprojectsof thesoldiersof theRepublitheLaborgovto "out-Israeli"
theGOP's efforts
can 1994"revolution"-including
to
withitsproposalsto relocatetheU.S.embassyin IsraeltoJerusalem,
ernment
of
list
to
the
add
and
to
Syria
to
destabilize
Iran,
launchan Americanprogram
and
"rogue"nations-would place the UnitedStateson a moreinterventionist
costlycourse than sending a small group of Americanpeacekeepers to the
Golan.
candidateBob
ofpresidential
Mostamazingofall has been the"Likudization"
leaderhad justmissedbeingplaced on thetop
Senatemajority
Dole. The former
ofAIPAC'senemylistforadvocatingcutsin theU.S.aid packageto Israelseveral
yearsago and forschmoozingwithSaddamHusseinin Baghdada monthor two
beforetheinvasionofKuwait,advisingtheIraqileaderon waysto deal withthe
Americanmedia.
THE FRiNDs OF BImi(FOBs) vs. "THENEW MIDDLE EAs-e'
95
is closerin his generalforeignpolicy
Ifanything,
Dole bynaturalinclination
figures,the Middle
approachto Bush and Baker.For such realpolitik-oriented
can be
East is a geopoliticalarenawhereU.S. strategicand economicinterests
mostsuccessfully
pursuedthroughan even-handedpolicytowardIsraeland the
notionofan exclusivestrategic
alliance
oil-rich
Arabstates;theneoconservative
Butthisis a
withtheJewishstatewould normally
be seen as counterproductive.
presidential
electionyear,and in the same way thatthe moderateRepublican
Rightas a way of winpositionof theChristian
Dole has adoptedtheextremist
whitevoters,so too has thismanwho has
ningkeysupportamongconservative
neverbeen knownas an ardentsupporterof IsraelsuddenlyfoundhimselfemThis platformhas also been
pro-Likudplatform.
bracingthe neoconservative
promotedby the head of his presidentialcampaignin New York, Senator
D'Amato.
AL
OF BIBI'S MEN
parallelsbetweenthe politicalcalculationsdrivingthe
Thereare interesting
ofD'Amatoand Netanyahu.
Bothare beingopposed by the
campaignstrategies
Botharebackedbypowvotersintheirconstituencies.
liberaland secularJewish
erfullocal electoralblocsofbeardedorthodoxJews.
Andbothenjoythefinancial
of thepoliticaland
as RonaldLauder.A reflection
backingof such contributors
ideologicalmarriagebetweenthe GOP's pro-Likudwing and the IsraeliRight
a former
was theroleplayedbymediastrategist
Arthur
politicalconFinkelstein,
in Netanyahu'suphillcamsultantto D'Amatoand otherRepublicanpoliticians,
paignforprimeminister.
to help Peresget reelected,
Indeed,while Clintonand his aides were trying
in Sharmal-Shaykh
conference
(followtheinternational
antiterrorist
organizing
with
ing thedeadlybombingincidentsin Tel Avivand Jerusalem)and treating
benignneglectPeres'sbloody Grapesof Wrathassaulton Lebanon,manyReNetanspokesmenwere portraying
publicanlawmakersand neoconservative
yahuas "one of us," pointingto his "macho"foreignpolicyapproachand his
to deregulateand privatizethe statistIsraelieconomy.Forgotten
commitment
was thefactthatitwas Labor'speace policythathad opened forIsraelnew trade
and investment
in Europe,Asia,and theMiddleEast,and thatNeopportunities
to reviveand "globalize"the
tanyahu'santipeaceapproachcould halttheeffort
mostof Israel'sleadingbusinessexecutives
Israelieconomy.Not surprisingly,
supportedPeres's reelection.
to explain
advocatesinWashington
attempt
Nordid Netanyahu's
free-market
how hispolicyofdispensinggovernment
patronageto thereligiouspartiesin his
in
coalitionfitswithhis publicsupportforreducingtherole of thegovernment
theIsraelieconomy.Moreover,thenewsbiting
bytheeditorialpage of the Wall
and otherneoconservative
outletsportraying
StreetJournal
Netanyahu's
policies
as an Israeliversionof Thatcherism
ran againstpoliticalrealitiesof Israel:The
ofIsrael'spro-free
market
yuppieshad votedforLabor,whilethelowermajority
middle-classOrientalJewsare thebackboneof theLikud'spoliticalsupport.
96
JOURNAL OF PALESIlNE STUDIES
Butnotwithstanding
such examplesofcognitivedissonanceproducedbythe
Republicans'championingof Netanyahuas "theirman,"Bibi's victorytripto
New York and Washingtonin earlyJulyand his congressionaladdresshelped
in
"spin"thenew Israeliprimeminister
as an IsraeliJackKemp.(Kemp himself,
being
selected
as
Dole's
running
mate,
an interview
withCNN'sLarryKingafter
as a "Jewish
RonaldReagan"and one ofhisclosestpolitical
describedNetanyahu
in theeditorialpage ofthe Wall
buddies.)Indeed,columnist
Paul Gigot,writing
Street
Journal,notedthat"youcouldsee thelongingin Republicaneyes"during
Netanyahu'saddressinCongress."Therein thechamberoftheU.S.House was a
foreigner
givingthe kindof speech theyyearnto hear fromtheirown leader,
an honorarymemberof
Bob Dole," wroteGigot."I wantto make [Netanyahu]
Jon Fox
the freshmanclass,"declaredPhiladelphiaRepublicanRepresentative
to
afterthespeech.Connecticut
RepublicanChrisShaysquipped,"I was thinking
myself:
Whycan'twe runhim?"
Indeed,whynot?Withhis Americanaccent,his adoptionof the Republican
mumbojumbo,and, of course,his toughpositionon Israel,Netanyahucould
on CapitolHill,
probablyfindhimselfa home amongtheGOP "revolutionaries"
therebysavingon long-distance
phone billsfromTel Avivto Ted, Larry,Bill,
forBibi,
Unfortunately
Abe,and othermediapals in New Yorkand Washington.
he will have to spend the nextyearsprovingto Israelis,includinghalfof the
voterswho didn'tsupporthim,thathe is "one ofthem."Provingto themthathe
can manage Israel's complex relationswithAmericawill be one of his main
he mayindeedhave no choicebutto
tasks.Ifhe failsand is kickedoutofoffice,
recoverhisAmericancitizenship
(whichhe renouncedin orderto runforoffice
in Israel)and runfora safe congressional
seat in Brooklyn.
But managingtheAmerican-Israeli
involvesmorethancongresrelationship
sional addressesand "Nightline"
campaign
appearancesduringthe presidential
season, when chasingtheJewishvotetakesprecedenceoverpursuingU.S. nationalinterests.
WhileNetanyahu'scongressionalappearance,the Bibi-and-Bill
WhiteHouse photo-ops(followedbytheBibi-and-Bobphoto-opsin NewYork),
and the restof the glib speech makingthatdominatedtheJulyvictorytripto
AmericahelpedNetanyahushrugoffseriousdiscussionof hislong-term
foreign
during
policyapproach,he willprobablynotenjoysimilardiplomaticfree-riding
his meetingswiththeU.S. presidentfollowingthe Novemberelection.At that
can be expectedto ask himthequestioneventually
posed to
point,Washington
Whereis thebeef?
telegenicnewsbiters:
FROM NEWSBITING TO POLICY-MAKNG?
Thereis no doubtthatthenoisypro-Likud
forceson CapitolHill,backed by
theneoconservative
"usualsuspects"in themediaand thinktanks,willdo everythingin theirpowerto harassanyDemocraticor Republicanpresidentwho deto thePalestinians
cides to challengeNetanyahuto fulfill
Israel'scommitments
and continuenegotiations
withSyria.Indeed, some FOBs, usingthe editorial
page oftheWallStreetjournalas theirmainlobbyingtool,have alreadymoved
TBHEFRNDs
OF BiBI
(FOBs) vs. "THE NEw MIDDLE
ERAsi'
97
MichaelLedeen of
forwardto tryforcingNetanyahu'sagenda on Washington.
foreignpolicytype
(AEID,a neoconservative
Institute
the AmericanEnterprise
affair,
proposedthattheStateDepartand a veteranoftheinfamousIran-Contra
mentbe cleansedofthemembersofthepeace cliqueled byWarrenChristopher
and Dennis Ross.AndRichardPerle,Ledeen'scolleague at AEI, suggestedthat
withKingHusseinand Turkeyto oust Iraq'sSaddam
Netanyahuworktogether
and returnthe Hashimitefamilyto power in Baghdad.In the eventof a Dole
victory,
Ledeen,Perle,and other"neocons"could end up occupyingtop positionsin his foreignpolicyapparatus.
season over,anyWhiteHouse occupantintenton
Butwiththe presidential
thecurrent
Pax Americanain theMiddleEast,withtheArab-Israeli
maintaining
an Israelileader
is bound to confront
peace processas one ofmaincomponents,
who seems intentat sabotagingthatproject.Moreover,ifan Americanadministo impletration
decidesto givea greenor yellowlightto theLikudgovernment
in the West Bank,endingthe
mentits radicalpolicies-expandingsettlement
positionon theGolan,launchinga war
Oslo track,adoptingan uncompromising
theoutsidedippartiesto attempt
againstSyria-one can expectotherinterested
Thus,iftheArabopposed by Washington.
so strenuously
lomaticintervention
Israeliprocessis allowedto die,theEuropeanUnion(EU) as well as Russiaand
to fillthediplomaticvacuumin theregion,proposing
Chinawillstepup efforts
and usingdiplomaticand ecoalternative
forumsforArab-Israeli
negotiations
nomicpressureto changeIsrael'spolicies.
to undercutU.S.
to isolateIran,itsattempt
The EU's oppositionto U.S.efforts
negodiplomacyinLebanonduringGrapesofWrathbyadvancingan alternative
ofcoeconomicstructures
and itsproposalsforindependent
mechanism,
tiating
operationwith the Middle East (the "Euro-Med"partnershiplaunched in
Barcelonalastyear),all pointto theEuropeanrefusalto acceptthemarginalrole
to conin theMiddleEastassignedthem.Reluctanceon thepartofWashington
front
Netanyahuand hisantipeacecoalitioncould well createtheconditionsfor
growingU.S.-EUtensionsoverMiddleEastpolicy.
Hence the U.S. presidenttakingofficein 1997 will have to choose between
theFriendsof Bibi in Washington
or havingto deal withthe rising
confronting
the U.S. positionin theMiddleEast withBibi at the helm.
costsof maintaining
leadership.Bibi's victoryin Israeland theFOBs' triWithoutsuch presidential
willonlymeanone thing.To paraphraseSirEdwardGrey's
umphinWashington
ofEuropeon theeve oftheGreatWar:The lampsare goingout
sad description
all overtheMiddleEast.We shallneversee themlitagain in our lifetime.