MESAS:
Evaluation of minimum
unit pricing (MUP) for
alcohol.
Proposed study
portfolio
V1
Legislation Requirements
• Impact on public health, crime, public safety, public
nuisance, and protecting children and young people
from harm
• Impact on producers and license holders
• Impacts by gender, age, socio-economic status and
drinking status where possible
• Views of those representing alcohol producers and
license holders, and those with a function related to
health, crime prevention, education, social work and
children and young people are sought,
Evaluation Questions
• To what extent has implementing MUP in Scotland
contributed to reducing alcohol-related harms?
• Are some (people and businesses) more affected
(positively and negatively) than others?
Theory-based evaluation
If there is
• A Theory of Change - how MUP may result in a
series of outcomes;
• MUP implemented in a way likely to change
outcomes;
• Evidence gathered that shows that the sequence of
expected results is being realised; and
• Other factors influencing the outcomes have been
assessed and accounted for.
Then evidence that MUP is impacting
Theory of change for MUP
External factors: economic context, potential changes to cider duty
MUP
implemented
Compliance
Price change.
No alcohol
<50ppu
Reduced
Purchasing
(in off-trade)
Reduced
consumption
Product
and marketing
changes
Substitution:
other alcohol
or drugs
Displacement
of spending
Economic impact
on alcohol industry
Reduced
harm
Social norms and
Attitudes to MUP
The Evaluation
• A portfolio of MESAS studies that are feasible,
robust, necessary, sufficient and proportionate to fulfil
the requirements of legislation.
+
• Researchers applying for other grant funding to
answer other important questions
Theory of Change: showing the potential MESAS studies
Licensing data,
LSO data
Compliance
Small retailers
Market research data,
Price distribution
Alcohol sales
Price change.
No alcohol
<50ppu
Harmful drinkers
Stakeholders
Substitution:
other alcohol
or drugs
Reduced
Purchasing
(in off-trade)
Routine data
(health, crime,
SHeS,
children),
Alcohol sales,
Harmful
Alcovision,
drinkers,
Harmful drinkers Stakeholders
Reduced
consumption
Reduced
harm
Small retailers,
Social norms
Market research data
Attitudes to MUP
Product
Social
and marketing
Small retailers,
changes
Market research data, attitudes
Survey
Case studies,
Household
Sales data,
expenditure
Routine data
Harmful drinkers Economic impact
Displacement
on alcohol industry
of spending
Proposed MESAS portfolio
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Licensing and LSO data
Observational study of small retailers (currently being commissioned)
Monitoring of Supermarket prices using market research data
Alcohol sales and price distribution
Analysis of self report data on consumption
Harmful drinkers study (Commissioned – led by University of
Sheffield)
Analyses of routine data on health, crime, public safety and public
nuisance, and impacts on children & young people
Questions in Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Economic impact case studies and routine data
Household expenditure
Views of representatives and stakeholders
These will be refined as the detail of the portfolio is developed
Compliance + availability <50ppu
To what extent has MUP been complied with? How does price and price distribution
change, and is this different to England? How have different drink types been affected?
Study
What
Routine data
Descriptive analysis of routine licensing data.
LSO data
Currently exploring what data will be/can be collected by LSOs.
Additional price
band data
Weekly price band data to track the price distribution of off-trade
alcohol changes in Scotland and England.
Market research
data
Exploring use of existing price data collected by market research
and other commercial companies, or commissioning bespoke
data collection
Small retailers
Commissioned study to determine how price and promotional
activity changes in small independent retailers in Scotland
Purchasing and Consumption
How does sales of alcohol change post MUP (on and off-trade)? What impact does
MUP have on population and self-reported consumption? Are some groups more
or less affected than others? What is the impact on the prevalence of hazardous
and harmful drinking?
Study
What
Sales data
Analysis of sales and price data from Scotland and England
(total/ by market sector/by drink type).
Self report
consumption
data.
E.g. SHeS
Descriptive analysis of self-report consumption and drinking
patterns. Some data from the harmful drinkers study.
Potentially some data on prevalence of hazardous and
harmful drinking from a grant funded study if funded
Harmful Drinkers
Commissioned study led by University of Sheffield.
Collecting quantitative and qualitative data from the heaviest
drinkers on a range of outcomes including purchasing
behaviour, consumption, substitution, crime, family member
experiences. Includes interviews with service providers. Also
includes analysis of Kantar Alcovision data
Alcohol-related harm
What is impact on health/crime, public safety and nuisance outcomes? Are these
impacts differentially patterned?
What is impact on harm experienced by children and young people? Are these
impacts differentially patterned?
Study
What
Mortality +
morbidity routine
data
Analysis of routine hospitalisation and mortality data. Study
protocol to be developed. Potentially there will be additional
data from the harmful drinkers study. Potentially some data
from grant funded study if funded
Crime, public
safety and
nuisance data
Scoping to determine feasibility of commissioning a study on
crime and public safety using routine data. Some data from
harmful drinkers study.
Children and young Scoping to determine the feasibility of a study using existing
people
data. Data from harmful drinkers study on number of children
in harmful drinkers lives, and qualitative data from adult
family members. Routine health data includes under 18
years hospitalisations.
Attitudes
What impact does MUP have on attitudes to alcohol, to MUP and perception
of harm caused by alcohol?
Study
What
Scottish Social
Attitudes
Survey
Repeat questions on support/don’t support MUP and why in
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey post implementation
Economic Impact
What affect has MUP had on the alcohol industry? How do products change,
price distribution and marketing change? How do output, profitability and employment
change and are there differences across sectors?
Does displacement of spending on food, energy and housing occur and if so is
it differentially patterned?
Study
What
Small retailers
Commissioned study to determine how price and promotional
activity changes in small independent retailers in Scotland
Routine data plus
case studies
Case studies with range of producers and on and off trade
retailers. Interviews with industry bodies and license holders.
Analysis of routine data e.g. Labour Force Survey.
Household
expenditure
Proposed analysis of Kantar Worldpanel data and living costs
and food survey
Substitution, stakeholders,
external factors
Do drinkers substitute other sources of alcohol or drugs post MUP?
Views of key representatives from health, crime, education, social work, children
and young people, producers and license holders
Study
What
Substitution
Potentially some data from a grant funded study if funded:
data from harmful drinkers study
Representatives and
Stakeholders
Engagement with key stakeholder representatives from
producers and license holders, LSOs, health, crime,
education, social work and children and young people re
views of MUP, implementation issues, unintended
consequences.
External factors
Incorporate as appropriate in all studies.