Nivesh Daily Currency 7 July, 2017 FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK Currency Pivot Levels Currency Pair Close USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR 64.9525
73.9150
84.1725
57.3775
% OI % Prev OI Change Change %Change
‐0.07
0.26
0.21
0.14
‐1.92
0.16
‐0.1
‐1.08
1.40
1.53
4.41
35.61
R * Pivot S* 65.0800 74.1558 84.5183 57.6883 64.9475
73.8233
84.1533
57.4158
64.8800
73.6942
83.9717
57.2592
* R= Resistance. S = Support Foreign Currency Update Currency Pair Close
% Change
Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD JPYUSD 95.58
1.1423
1.2970
113.22
‐0.41
0.63
0.28
‐0.05
. USDINR 27 July , 2017 Expiry Option Update Options CE 65.50 CE 65.00 CE 64.50 CE 64.00 PE 65.50 PE 65.00 PE 64.50 PE 64.00 %Chg ‐13.46
‐11.02
‐7.23
‐3.47
LTP
0.1125
0.2625
0.545
0.9725
0.6575
0.3125
0.1
0.025
3.54
4.17
2.56
0.00
%Chg OI 7.4
‐2.33
5.56
0.09
2.01
5.57
8.89
2.73
%Chg Pr OI ‐1.21 ‐8.86 0.21 ‐4.84 0.85 11.2 2.31 6.42 OI 205816
298065
67896
95342
154486
206009
122680
165547
Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating positive move in USDINR. S RBI Reference Rate (July 6, 2017) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91‐0731‐4262702 [email protected] IndiaNivesh Research 1 USD
64.779
1 GBP
1 EURO 100 YEN
83.8226
73.4322 57.2500
India Nivesh Securities Limited | SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR (July Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Review Dollar/rupee ended little changed Thursday as investors preferred to remain on sidelines ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data. Technical, USDINR settled at 64.9450 levels with slightly loss 0.07%. Since 3 July 2017, pair struggling to break its massive resistance 65.20 and retreating towards 64.80 levels. Hence, any rise towards 65.10‐65.15 could create selling pressure in near term unless it gives a closing above 65.20. Sustain trade above it only will open the door for 65.48‐65.70. Recommendation: LTP Sell around 64.952 65.00‐65.05 Target 64.80‐64.65 Stop loss 64.20 Daily Chart Important Factor: U.S Non‐Farm Employment Change EURINR ( July Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Review Euro rose to the day’s highs on Thursday after the minutes of the European Central Bank’s June meeting showed that officials discussed removing the easing bias from its latest monetary policy statement, before deciding against. Technical, EURINR bounce back from its previous swing low and settled at 73.8975 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation long bullish candle stick which is creating probability for positive move in the pair. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 73.60 below only will expect to test 73.20‐73.00. Recommendation LTP
Buy around Target Stop loss
73.91
73.75‐73.80 74.60‐74.85
73.60
Daily Important Factor : French Industrial Production m/m IndiaNivesh Research
Nivesh Daily Currency  GBPINR( July Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Review Pound/Rupee little changed Thursday as investors remained on sidelines ahead of US jobs data due later tomorrow. Technical, GBPINR fluctuated in between gain and loss and settled at 84.1550 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for trend reversal in the pair. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 84.65 breaks above only will expect to test 85.00‐
85.35. Recommendation : LTP
84.17
Sell around Target 84.45‐84.55 84.00‐83.80
Stop loss
84.65
Daily Chart Important Factor: Manufacturing Production m/m  JPYINR ( July Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Review Yen little changed Thursday as investors remained on sideline ahead of the US non‐farm payrolls data. JPYINR consolidated above its previous day low and settled at 57.3750 levels. On the EOD chart, pair settled below its crucial support 61.8% of its previous rally which is indicating for bearishness in the pair. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 57.90‐58.25. Recommendation/ View : LTP 57.37 Sell around 57.35‐57.40 Target 57.10‐55.85
Stop loss 57.58 Daily Chart Important data : Leading Indicators IndiaNivesh Research
Nivesh Daily Currency  Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today  U.S. ISM Non‐Manufacturing PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 57.4, from 56.9 in the preceding quarter.  U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 1 increased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 248,000 from the previous week’s total of 244,000.  U.S. trade balance rose to a seasonally adjusted ‐46.50B, from ‐47.60B in the preceding month.  U.S. ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 185,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 140,000 to 233,000.  European Central Bank’s June meeting showed that officials discussed removing the easing bias from its latest monetary policy statement, before deciding against it.  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Possible Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 10:30am JPY Leading Indicators 104.60% 104.20% Positive EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.20% 0.80% Negative 11:30am 12:15pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance ‐ ‐57.9B ‐ EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.50% ‐0.50% Positive EUR French Trade Balance ‐4.9B ‐5.5B Neutral 1:00pm GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.20% 0.40% Negative 1:30pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.30% ‐0.10% Positive 2:00pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.50% 0.20% Positive GBP Goods Trade Balance ‐10.8B ‐10.4B Negative GBP Construction Output m/m 0.60% ‐1.60% Positive GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.40% 0.20% Positive Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings ‐ ‐ ‐ 5:30pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate ‐ 0.20% ‐ 6:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.30% 0.20% Positive USD Non‐Farm Employment Change 175K 138K Positive USD Unemployment Rate 4.30% 4.30% Neutral GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks ‐ ‐ ‐ Tentative USD Fed Monetary Policy Report ‐ ‐ ‐ 8:30pm Impact: HighLowMedium Note
: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source ‐ investing.com, Reuters & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research
Nivesh Daily Currency IndiaNivesh Securities Limited|SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e‐mail: [email protected] | Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. IndiaNivesh Research
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