economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2016
Unless stated otherwise, the following provides a
summary of Deloitte Access Economics' (DAE)
forecasts published in its Business Outlook
September quarter 2016 report.
Chart 1: Economic Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
12
Northern Territory
10
Economic Growth Forecasts
NT
Aust
2015-16 (estimate)
3.1%
2.9%
2016-17 (forecast)
2.3%
2.7%
5 year average annual growth rate
(2015-16 to 2019-20)
3.0%
2.8%
Economic Growth
8
6
4
2
Australia
0
2015-16
-2
The Territory economy is estimated to grow by
3.1 per cent in 2015-16 (Chart 1). Growth is expected
to be underpinned by private consumption and net
international exports. This is expected to partly offset
decreases in private housing investment, engineering
investment and private equipment investment as the
Territory transitions from a largely construction and
mining investment driven economy to an export and
consumption led economy.
-4
06
14
16e
18f
20f
Chart 2: Territory Private Investment Components
(moving annual total, inflation adjusted)
$B
10
Outlook
4
The outlook is for the Territory economy to grow by an
average of 3.0 per cent per annum over the five years
to 2019-20. This is the second highest economic
growth forecast of all jurisdictions behind Queensland
(3.4 per cent per annum). In other jurisdictions, the
estimated five year average economic growth ranges
from 1.6 per cent per annum in Tasmania to
2.9 per cent per annum in Victoria.
3
8
7
6
Private Engineering
and Commercial
Investment
5
Equipment
Investment
2
1
0
06
08
10
12
14
16 e
18 f
20 f
Year ended June
Source: Australlian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 3: Territory International Trade
(moving annual total, inflation adjusted)
$B
12
Exports
10
8
Net Exports
6
Territory economic growth over the five years to
2019-20 is expected to be supported by:
4

international goods exports, which are forecast to
increase by an average of 8.9 per cent per annum
over the period (Chart 3); and
2
private consumption, which is forecast to increase
by an average of 2.2 per cent per annum.
-2

12
Year ended June
9
DAE notes that exports are expected to replace
construction activity as the key driver of Territory
economic growth over the medium term, as the
Ichthys LNG Project transitions to production
(Chart 2).
10
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
The Territory is expected to have the third highest
economic growth of all jurisdictions in 2015-16, which
range from 0.9 per cent in Western Australia to
3.5 per cent in New South Wales. Nationally, the
economy is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent in
2015-16.
DAE forecasts the national economy to grow by an
average annual rate of 2.8 per cent over the period
2015-16 to 2019-20.
08
Imports
0
-4
06
08
10
12
14
16 e
18f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Economic Group │ Department of Treasury and Finance │ (08) 8999 6801 │ www.treasury.nt.gov.au │ [email protected]
20f
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2016
Employment Forecasts
NT
Aust
2016-17 (forecast)
1.8%
1.3%
2017-18 (forecast)
1.3%
1.4%
5 year average growth rate
1.4%
1.5%
Labour Market
(year on year percentage change)
%
7
Northern Territory
6
5
Actual results for 2015-16 labour market data have
recently been released by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics. DAE expects Territory employment to
increase by 1.8 per cent in 2016-17 (Chart 4).
Between 2015-16 and 2019-20, employment in the
Territory is forecast to grow on average by
1.4 per cent per annum. In other jurisdictions the five
year average annual employment growth forecast
ranges between 0.5 per cent in Tasmania and
1.9 per cent in New South Wales.
DAE expects national employment to grow by an
average annual rate of 1.5 per cent over the next five
years.
The Territory’s unemployment rate is forecast to
average 3.8 per cent over the five years to 2019-20,
compared to 5.7 per cent nationally. In other
jurisdictions, the average annual unemployment rate
forecast over the next five years ranges from
3.9 per cent in the Australian Capital Territory to
6.8 per cent in South Australia and Tasmania.
Population Forecasts
Chart 4: Employment
NT
Aust
2015-16 (estimate)
0.3%
1.4%
2016-17 (forecast)
0.5%
1.4%
5 year average growth rate
0.9%
1.4%
4
3
2
1
0
-1
06
Aust
2016-17 (forecast)
0.8%
1.9%
2017-18 (forecast)
1.6%
2.1%
5 year average growth rate
1.4%
1.9%
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Actual results for 2015-16 CPI have recently been
released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. DAE
expects the Darwin CPI to grow by 0.8 per cent in
2016-17 (Chart 6), and by an average of 1.4 per cent
per annum over the five years to 2019-20.
14
16e
18f
20f
(year on year percentage change)
%
3.0
Northern Territory
2.5
2.0
1.5
Australia
1.0
0.0
NT
12
Chart 5: Population
DAE estimates the Territory population will grow by
0.3 per cent in 2015-16.
Consumer Price Index Forecasts
10
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
0.5
The five year average annual population growth
forecast for the Territory is the third lowest of the
jurisdictions. In the other jurisdictions, average annual
population growth forecasts over the five years to
2019-20 range between 0.3 per cent per annum in
Tasmania and 1.8 per cent per annum in Victoria.
08
Year ended June
Population
Over the next five years, DAE is forecasting the
Territory's population to grow by an average rate of
0.9 per cent per annum, compared to an average of
1.4 per cent per annum nationally (Chart 5).
Australia
06
08
10
12
14
16e
18f
20f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 6: Consumer Price Index
(year on year percentage change)
%
5
Northern Territory
4
3
Australia
2
1
0
06
08
10
12
14
16e
18f
20f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
2
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2016
Table 1: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, %
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
Australia
2.9
3.0
1.4
2.2
5.9
1.4
NT
3.1
4.6
0.3
1.1
4.2
0.1
Year on year percentage change, 2015-16
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
3.5
3.4
1.9
1.5
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.7
1.4
1.9
1.3
0.6
3.9
2.4
1.6
0.3
5.4
6.0
6.1
7.3
1.5
1.6
1.6
0.9
WA
0.9
1.5
1.2
0.0
6.1
1.0
Tas
1.4
3.5
0.4
-0.1
6.5
1.4
ACT
1.8
3.7
1.3
1.1
4.5
0.7
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.7
2.7
1.4
1.3
5.6
1.9
2.3
0.9
0.5
1.8
3.5
0.8
Year on year percentage change 2016-17
2.5
2.8
3.7
1.0
2.9
3.0
2.6
2.1
1.4
1.9
1.3
0.7
1.4
1.9
1.1
1.1
5.0
5.7
6.1
6.7
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.0
2.4
1.2
0.0
6.4
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.3
0.5
7.0
1.6
2.5
2.0
1.3
1.6
3.6
1.8
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.8
2.8
1.4
1.5
5.7
1.9
3.0
2.2
0.9
1.4
3.8
1.4
Five year average annual growth 2015-16 to 2019-20
2.7
2.9
3.4
1.8
2.6
3.3
2.9
2.3
1.4
1.8
1.3
0.7
1.9
1.7
1.4
0.8
5.1
5.7
6.1
6.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
2.9
1.2
0.7
6.4
1.9
1.6
1.7
0.3
0.5
6.8
1.9
2.3
3.0
1.3
1.0
3.9
1.8
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Table 2: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, rank
Rank
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
NT
3
1
8
4
1
1
NSW
1
5
2
1
3
6
2015-16
Vic
2
4
1
2
4
8
Qld
4
7
4
3
6
7
SA
6
6
6
6
8
3
WA
8
8
5
7
5
4
Tas
7
3
7
8
7
5
ACT
5
2
3
5
2
2
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
5
8
7
2
1
1
3
2
2
4
3
8
2016-17
2
1
1
1
4
7
1
3
4
6
5
5
8
5
6
5
7
4
7
4
5
8
6
2
6
7
8
7
8
3
4
6
3
3
2
6
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2
7
6
3
1
1
7
4
5
7
6
4
8
8
8
8
8
5
5
2
3
5
2
3
Five year average annual growth 2015-16 to 2019-20
4
3
1
6
5
1
3
6
2
1
4
7
1
2
4
6
3
4
5
7
6
7
8
2
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1 = Best, 8 = Worst
3
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2016
Table 3: Deloitte Access Economics - Business Outlook – Forecasts
Northern Territory
Gross State product
Constant price ($m)
% change
NT as a share of Australian output %
Real final demand
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private consumption
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private housing investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private eng and comm investment Constant price ($m)
% change
Private equipment investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
International exports
Constant price ($m)
% change
International imports
Constant price ($m)
% change
Retail turnover
Constant price ($m)
% change
Total population
Persons (’000s)
% change
Employment (’000s)
Persons (’000s)
% change
Unemployment
Persons (’000s)
Unemployment rate
%
Consumer Price Index
% change
Average Weekly Earnings
$
% change
Wage Price Index
$
% change
Australia
Gross domestic product
International exports
International imports
Total population
Employment (’000s)
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Consumer Price Index
Average Weekly Earnings
Wage Price Index
2015-16
23 144
3.1
1.4
2016-17
23 686
2.3
1.4
2017-18
24 507
3.5
1.4
2018-19
25 168
2.7
1.4
27 573
-13.5
10 215
4.6
843
-7.7
6 565
-35.1
683
-55.7
6 866
6.2
3 295
-38.3
3 009
-0.3
244
0.3
133
1.1
5.9
4.2
0.1
1 325
6.7
124.1
2.2
24 059
-12.7
10 304
0.9
759
-9.9
3 275
-50.1
538
-21.3
6 665
-2.9
2 255
-31.6
2 988
-0.7
246
0.5
135
1.8
4.9
3.5
0.8
1 407
6.2
126.3
1.8
22 894
-4.8
10 413
1.1
716
-5.7
1 971
-39.8
409
-24.0
8 203
23.1
3 466
53.7
3 005
0.6
248
0.9
137
1.3
5.2
3.7
1.6
1 442
2.5
128.9
2.0
22 839
-0.2
10 622
2.0
602
-16.0
1 563
-20.7
407
-0.5
9 338
13.8
3 979
14.8
3 062
1.9
251
1.2
139
1.5
5.5
3.8
2.2
1 474
2.2
131.7
2.2
2015-16
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
%
% change
$
% change
% change
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
5 year
average
annual
2019-20 growth
25 985
3.2
3.0
1.4
23 544
3.1
10 874
2.4
608
1.0
1 607
2.8
469
15.3
9 901
6.0
4 302
8.1
3 173
3.6
254
1.4
141
1.6
5.8
3.9
2.1
1 511
2.5
135.6
3.0
-5.9
2.2
-7.8
-30.8
-21.2
8.9
-4.2
1.0
0.9
1.4
3.8
1.4
4.0
2.2
5 year
average
annual
2019-20 growth
# 1 668 677 1 714 410 1 763 167 1 811 417 1 860 350
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
#
309 883
333 766
353 844
368 022
380 921
6.6
7.7
6.0
4.0
3.5
#
270 806
264 023
271 109
281 765
294 033
-0.1
-2.5
2.7
3.9
4.4
#
23 991
24 325
24 660
24 998
25 339
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
#
11 871
12 024
12 193
12 355
12 515
2.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.3
#
739
719
731
742
757
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
1.4
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
#
1 150
1 181
1 213
1 247
1 283
1.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.7
3.3
2.8
5.6
1.6
1.4
1.5
5.7
1.9
2.2
2.3
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1. Base year 2013-14.
4
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2016
Table 4: Deloitte Access Economics - Financial Outlook - Forecasts
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
3 year
1.7%
1.9%
1.6%
1.8%
2.2%
3.5%
5 year
1.9%
2.1%
1.8%
1.9%
2.3%
3.6%
10 year
2.5%
2.5%
1.9%
2.1%
2.5%
3.9%
5.7%
5.4%
4.9%
4.8%
5.0%
6.0%
90 days
2.3%
2.3%
1.5%
1.5%
1.9%
3.2%
180 days
2.4%
2.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.9%
3.2%
68.5
0.867
95.8
0.694
62.8
0.739
87.9
0.666
63.6
0.753
79.6
0.666
62.1
0.739
86.0
0.626
60.3
0.720
85.7
0.598
60.2
0.717
85.5
0.589
75.44
46.10
49.03
54.70
59.54
68.14
-35.1%
-38.9%
6.3%
11.6%
8.8%
7.0%
Treasury bonds
Standard variable mortgage interest rate
Commercial bank bills:
Exchange rates
Trade weighted index
$US per $A
Yen per $A
Euro per $A
Crude oil prices
Crude oil (Tapis, $US/barrel)
% change
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Although all due care has been exercised in the preparation of this material, no responsibility is accepted for any
errors or omission.
5