Introduction
East Asia
East Asia-wide
The European debt crisis, a sluggish Chinese economy and ongoing supply chain
disruptions in Thailand due to flooding continue to impact export-reliant Asia. Growth
in most of the region's economies will continue to slow, including China, the
Philippines and Singapore, which are expecting the slowdown to continue into 2012
and afterward. Elsewhere in Asia, the combination of growth concerns and ongoing
inflationary pressures despite easing efforts continue to challenge policy makers.
Indonesia has seen benchmark interest rates cut twice in the past two months, and
further moves will depend on inflation trends and the EU and Chinese economic
situations. South Korea will likely put interest rates on hold in a monthly economic
policy meeting Dec. 8 amid a combination of sustained external uncertainty, falling
currency and pressure for price hikes in electricity and natural gas. The Philippines,
affected by weak growth in electronic exports and government spending likely will
ease back on efforts to regulate overseas workers, dependent as it is on their
remittances.
China
Despite an official stance calling for a restrained economic policy, Beijing already has
modestly loosened its monetary policy amid concerns over weakening growth, rising
unemployment and growing instability. Following several rounds of so-called
"targeted monetary easing," Beijing has begun to take more concrete steps toward
more aggregate easing. One such step was the People's Bank of China's Nov. 30
announcement that it would cut Chinese banks' reserve requirement ratios by half a
percentage point on Dec. 5, a move that is expected to raise 350 billion-400 billion
yuan in circulating cash. The move was not unexpected, but its timing, coupled with
statements by Premier Wen Jiabao and Vice Premier Wang Qishan suggesting an
imminent loosening of monetary policy, indicates that Beijing is concerned about
future prospects for the domestic and global economy. Meanwhile, by the end of the
year, Beijing likely will have spent around 1.2 trillion yuan on capital injections for
small- to medium-sized enterprises, the agricultural sector and several strategic
sectors because of fiscal conditions in China. The annual Central Economic Working
Conference scheduled for mid-December will determine Beijing’s economic policy
direction for the following year. During this meeting, leaders likely will discuss if and
how to loosen monetary policy without repeating the cycle it fell into in 2008, when a
policy loosening and massive stimulus program led to significant inflation, property
speculation and a credit crunch.
Falling real estate prices have led to economic and social concerns, but Beijing
appears determined to continue with a real estate tightening plan. In anticipation of
this potential slowdown in real estate growth, Beijing will continue to build affordable
housing as a way to offset the consequences from sluggish commercial housing.
However, the real estate sector has strong connections to the Chinese banking
system, and it thus remains in question whether Beijing will be able to continue with
its real estate policy without triggering greater economic instability.
Japan
Japanese leaders are set to meet in December with leaders of other Asian countries,
and this activity should clarify the new government's Asia policy. Specifically,
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will make a state visit to China Dec. 13-14.
The two are slated to discuss a potential resumption of negotiations on a natural gas
deal, boundaries in the disputed East China Sea and an easing of Chinese restrictions
on Japanese food imports. This meeting comes after strained relations during
previous Prime Minister Naoto Kan's administration, but despite these gestures of
improvement, Beijing will still closely watch Japan during Kan's other high-level
meetings. This includes one possible visit to India in mid-December to improve
bilateral strategic ties, including the resumption of talks on nuclear exports and
maritime cooperation in the South China Sea, as well as possible trilateral talks
between Japan, India and the United States on maritime security issues, seen by
China as an attempt to institutionalize Japan’s involvement in the South China Sea
issue and encircle China. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba is expected to
visit Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand in late December with the goal of
strengthening ties with Southeast Asian countries through economic cooperation.
Thailand
Thailand's floods are expected to recede in early December, though a new monsoon
may be gaining strength and could threaten additional flooding in the northeast. The
flooding has weakened Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s political momentum as
her administration mulls massive government spending to rehabilitate the country.
In a radical move, it also cut interest rates by 0.25 percent Nov. 30. Another political
setback for Yingluck has been the fallout surrounding a secretly drafted amnesty
decree that would allow the return of her brother, exiled former Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra, on Dec. 5. News of the amnesty decree has revitalized antigovernment opposition and raised anti-government public sentiment, and Yingluck's
government was soon forced to drop pardon efforts. Neither the political old guard
nor the Thai military currently have the capability to bring down the government, but
current circumstances appear to have ended the ruling Puea Thai Party's ability to
increase its power at the expense of its opposition, as it is now distracted by
attempting to convince the public that it is capable of dealing with both the flooding
and the political crisis. The military has attempted to turn the crisis into an
opportunity to restore its image after its bloody crackdowns on Thaksin supporters in
recent years, taking an active role in flood relief, for example. There also have been
divisions within Thaksin’s power camp, particularly from former Thai Rak Thai party
executives, banned from politics after the 2006 coup, who have begun pressuring
the government in an attempt to gain political ground ahead of May 2012 elections,
when they will be legally allowed to run for office again.
Indonesia
Union workers striking at Freeport’s Grasberg copper mine in Papua province are
calling for a third month of protests should their demand for higher wages not be
met. These protests come during a weak period for domestic manufacturing — and a
slumping global economy — and thus have the potential to spread across the
country. Meanwhile, several Freeport security personnel have been shot at, injured
or killed in the past month, allegedly by Papua independence activists, while attacks
on strikebreakers have also occurred. As tensions rise over the mine, both the
workers and the separatists will see opportunities to cause greater instability,
challenging the government's control over the province.
Eurasia
Europe-wide
The piecemeal, stopgap measures the Europeans have put in place throughout the
year to combat its financial crisis have become increasingly ineffective against rising
bond rates, rapidly moving the eurozone into a situation that is unsustainable in its
current form. Italian, Spanish and Belgian 10-year bond rates were steady until July,
when they significantly increased after eurozone countries failed to ratify the
expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Dramatic intervention
into the markets by the European Central Bank (ECB) in August, when the bank
resumed its practice of buying government bonds being shut out of the international
market by high financing costs was initially successful at lowering rates back to
acceptable levels, but several months later, the situation is rapidly escalating to a
level that is beyond the scale of the ECB to handle with its current mandate.
Despite record levels of ECB intervention, Italy's bond rates in November rose above
the 7 percent threshold at which Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek
bailouts, Spain's were around 6.7 percent and Belgium's rose to 5.66 percent from
4.37 percent the previous month over the country's political uncertainty. Without an
agreement to significantly expand the EFSF's bailout capacity, the default of any of
these states and its resultant effects is more than Europe can handle with its existing
frameworks. Germany, France, the ECB and the EU Commission are discussing
several plans, but consensus among European leaders remains elusive and the
effectiveness of any such plans is uncertain. Italy, Spain and Belgium, currently the
key countries in the crisis, all have new governments that are expected to announce
austerity measures in the first two weeks of December, but this has done little to
reassure investors. A bold and widely supported course of action could provide
enough of a guarantee against an Italian, Spanish, Belgian or other default that
investor concern will not force interest rates even higher before the end of the year.
Anything less than that will propel Europe further along on its increasingly
unsustainable course, which could play out in a number of ways, including a default
by one of the above countries or a banking crisis.
Russia
The ruling United Russia party likely will take the majority of seats in Dec. 4
parliamentary elections. However, it is projected to poll only at 53 percent of the
vote, down from the 61 percent it currently holds. Most Russian and independent
polls project the Communist Party will garner 20 percent, and Liberal Democrats and
Just Russia will each split the remaining 27 percent. Though this looks like a slight
slump for the ruling party, both the Liberal Democrats and Just Russia are part of the
All-Russia Popular Front, a coalition of political parties, labor unions, businesses and
individuals created by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The All-Russia Popular Front
essentially gives Putin control over a majority of the country under the guise of a
more democratic political process, and it sets up Putin's return to the presidency in a
March 2012 election. Ahead of these elections, Putin has been attempting to shift
public sentiment toward the Kremlin by putting cash into Russian social systems
such as pensions and health care. STRATFOR sources have indicated that Putin could
inject $6 billion into the Russian social systems in order to bolster his support and
make Russia seem more stable.
Russia will also continue its negotiations on membership to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) in December, with a possible vote by the WTO on Dec. 15.
Russia will then have until June 15, 2012 to ratify the accession package. Russia has
wavered on its commitment to joining the WTO. While accession will have little
impact on Russian businesses, the Kremlin wants to promote an international image
as a responsible economic partner to allow it more room to use regional economic
associations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Customs Union
and the proposed Eurasian Union to increase its influence over former Soviet states.
Meanwhile, Russia and the European Union are set to meet in December over the
EU's Third Energy Package. The initiative's unbundling requirement would greatly
loosen Russian energy company Gazprom's hold on European energy, and Moscow is
thus strongly opposed to it. Russia is linking the issue to its current natural gas
negotiations with specific European states, such as Germany and Italy. According to
STRATFOR sources in Gazprom, Russia has offered a lower price of natural gas in
exchange for their support for amendments to the Third Energy Package that would
allow Gazprom to continue its bundling of services in Europe. Europe's continuing
financial crisis means that a resolution to these negotiations is unlikely in December,
but the discussion of the Third Energy Package and Russia’s overall restructuring of
natural gas prices in Europe affect the future of all energy in the region and thus will
be critical for the coming months.
Belarus
Belarus' main issue in December will be the impact of the country's new natural gas
deal with Russia, struck Nov. 25. According to the agreement, Belarus will pay
Russia $164 per thousand cubic meters (tcm), down from $244 per tcm, beginning in
2012. In exchange, Gazprom acquired an additional 50 percent stake in Belarusian
energy firm Beltransgaz, giving it 100 percent ownership. The closing of this deal has
let the countries move to other areas of joint cooperation, including the construction
of a nuclear power plant in Belarus, for which Russia has provided a $10 billion loan.
Russian financial assistance to Belarus via Eurasec and Sberbank will also guarantee
Moscow a privileged position in Belarus' privatization drive, with several mediumsized industrial and energy assets up for grabs. Russia will therefore continue to
build on its gains in Belarus in December.
Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine likely will conclude a new natural gas deal in December after
months of intense negotiations. There are still several details that need to be worked
out and the specifics of the deal will be held closely until an agreement is announced,
but the broad outlines of the potential deal have crystallized. The deal will include
Russia lowering the price of natural gas to $240-260 per tcm from $400 per tcm in
2012 in exchange for Ukraine giving Russia a stake in its gas transit system, either
through a consortium of Naftogaz that would include Russia and the European Union
or by privatizing Naftogaz and allowing Russia to obtain some of its unbundled
components. The manner in which Russia acquires a stake in Naftogaz will be crucial,
as it will impact everything from Ukraine's IMF talks to its relationship with the
European Union. The impact of this increased Russian presence in and leverage over
Ukraine's energy sector will not be felt until early 2012.
Middle East and South Asia
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain
Shiite unrest in Saudi Arabia’s Shiite-concentrated, oil-rich Eastern Province has
been simmering in late November, with a handful of Shiite activists reported dead
from clashes with security forces so far. Meanwhile, in Bahrain, Shiite-led
demonstrations against the Saudi-backed Sunni regime have been intensifying.
Compounding matters for both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain is the Shiite mourning
period of Muharram from Nov. 26 to Dec. 5. Religious tensions run high during this
period, particularly on Ashura, the 10th day of mourning, which falls on Dec. 5.
Though Iran’s covert capabilities in this part of the region appear fairly limited,
STRATFOR will be watching closely for signs of an Iran looking to exploit this unrest.
Yemen
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s decision to sign away his executive authorities
to Vice President Abdo Rabu Mansour Hadi on Nov. 23 has broken the stalemate in
Yemen’s political crisis but does not mean an end to civil conflict. Saleh will remain
the titular head of state during the transition period. Hadi will now effectively be
ruling Yemen and preparing the country for elections scheduled for Feb. 21. Hadi will
also be heading up a new military council. Overall, the regime remains largely intact,
with Saleh’s family members in key security, diplomatic and business positions. This
is in the strategic interest of the United States and Saudi Arabia, both of which were
heavily involved in the mediation and do not want to see the Yemeni security
apparatus dismantled for fear of allowing Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula more
room to operate. Saleh is gambling that his foreign backing and his physical exit
from the political scene will give him bargaining power with his main rivals, Brig.
Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, and Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar and Hussein al-Ahmar, two
brothers who lead the influential Hashid tribal confederation. Though there is likely to
be some resistance (and clashes between rival security forces and possible attacks
on energy infrastructure as a result of this resistance December could lead toward
reconciliation between these two sides as the main opposition forces resign
themselves to the fact that they are outgunned, outnumbered and lacking foreign
backing to resist Saleh’s faction.
Syria
Syria will continue to attract a great deal of attention in December as the regime of
Syrian President Bashar al Assad becomes increasingly isolated and more beholden
to Iran for support. Syria’s fledgling armed opposition, made up mostly of low-level
Sunni army defectors, appears to be increasing its operations, but these have not
become significant enough to would threaten the unity of the Alawite-dominated
armed forces. The regime has shown no signs of splintering thus far, keeping its key
pillars intact while making verbal assurances toward the opposition in an effort to
fend off diplomatic and economic pressure from the Arab League. STRATFOR will be
monitoring closely the level of armed opposition activity in December for signs of a
break in this trend, but we do not anticipate such activity to intensify enough in the
near future that the international community would consider intervening militarily.
Increased efforts at sanctions-busting can also be expected as the Arab League tries
to ratchet up economic pressure on Syria. Syria does appear to be taking a
significant financial hit from a drop in oil exports to the European Union (its primary
customer) but still has a number of loopholes in the Lebanese banking system to
undermine the sanctions regime overall.
Iraq
Rumors are circulating that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the
Central Iraqi government could make headway on the country’s long-stalled
hydrocarbons law by the end of December, but STRATFOR does not put much stock
in these claims. The rumors follow a recent natural gas deal struck between
ExxonMobil and the KRG, a sign of U.S. backing to push the central government
along in negotiations with the KRG before the United States withdraws and the KRG
is left increasingly vulnerable to its Arab rivals in Baghdad. In addition to rights on
revenue distribution, the KRG is demanding the right to unilaterally make deals with
international energy companies. The central government has responded by
threatening to blacklist ExxonMobil elsewhere in the country, including a pending
contract in West Qurna-1, but ExxonMobil appears to be calling the central
government’s bluff on this issue. The KRG, central government and foreign energy
firms in Iraq can be expected to haggle with each other in December without coming
to a resolution, with the central government likely stalling negotiations until after the
Dec. 31 deadline for U.S. withdrawal to pressure the KRG. Meanwhile, the central
government will try to scuttle Royal Dutch Shell’s negotiations with the KRG by
offering to move forward with a $17 billion natural gas production deal in Basra.
Latin America
Argentina
The Argentine government began cuts to price subsidies for natural gas, electricity
and water to Buenos Aires businesses Dec. 1 in the first of a series of subsidy cuts
that is expected to trim $4.2 billion to $6.3 billion from the government's 2012
budget. Originally announced Nov. 2 by Argentine Minister of Economy and Vice
President-elect Amado Boudou and Minister of Planning Julio de Vido, the subsidy
cuts will occur in multiple phases. On Jan. 1, the same subsidy cuts will take effect
for households in the wealthier neighborhoods of Buenos Aires. The government will
then increase prices to the entire city and, eventually, to the rest of the country.
While the wealthy neighborhoods will have no choice but to pay higher prices for
these utilities, some exceptions will be made for the poor. Following on utility cuts,
the government plans to cut transportation subsidies in March, pending negotiations
with the city government of Buenos Aires. The decision to enact substantial cuts on
consumers is a significant shift in Argentine populist policy, and they indicate that
the government is tackling unsustainably high spending. Fiscal contraction can be
expected to contribute to overall stability in the long run, but there are still serious
issues associated with price cuts that undermine the productive capacity of
Argentina's industrial base. The government has restarted debt repayment talks with
the Paris Club, and the two organizations are expected to meet in December,
although a specific date has not been set. The Paris Club is pushing for a shorter
repayment time frame of the nearly $9 billion in outstanding debt and is threatening
to involve the IMF, something Argentina is hoping to avoid.
Venezuela
The government of Venezuela officially unveiled the Law of Costs and Prices on Nov.
23. The new law is designed to regulate the price of goods, and the first phase of
implementation, expected to take 90 days, began upon the publication of the law
and involves state auditing of companies' accounting procedures to establish a
maximum selling price for personal food, hygiene and cleaning products. The prices
of these goods will be set Dec. 15 by the Superintendency of Costs and Prices
(Sundecop), after which the companies will have until Jan. 15 to implement the
pricing. In the meantime, the prices of 19 products ranging from fruit juice to
disposable diapers to soap have been frozen. Beginning in January, Sundecop will
begin auditing a wider range of products, including pharmaceutical drugs. According
to Article 16 of the law, the price regulations implemented by Sundecop do not
necessarily cancel existing price regulations under the authority of the government.
The process by which the prices will be determined is far from clear. Scarcity of, and
high prices for, basic goods already are major issues in Venezuela, and this law is
likely to exacerbate these issues by driving more commerce to the black market.
Increased seizures of basic goods by government authorities can be expected as the
law is implemented, and affected companies may go out of business. The overall
implication of the law is a further destabilization of the economy.
Brazil
Investigations continue over the oil spill at an offshore Brazilian drilling site operated
by Chevron. The leak released an estimated 2,400 barrels of oil at the Frade field
and prompted the Brazilian environmental regulatory agency to levy a 50 million real
(about $28 million) fine against Chevron and suspend its concessions while
investigating the incident. Chevron has been accused of hiding information related to
the leak and failing to respond rapidly enough to the incident, which was apparently
caused by a miscalculation of the pressure inside the oil reservoir. Environmental
issues rapidly become political in the Brazilian political environment, even more so
for foreign companies operating in Brazil. The issue reinforces the potential
environmental risks of offshore drilling for the areas of Brazil located near offshore
deposits and could enliven ongoing negotiations between oil-producing states and
the central government over the distribution of oil revenues.
Brazilian Labor Minister Carlos Lupi is the latest in a series of disgraced ministers
that is likely to be forced into stepping down from his position over corruption
charges. Dogged by accusations that he used his position to embezzle money from
the government, reports leaked to the media in November indicate that the ruling
Labor Party is considering having Lupi step down before a scheduled ministerial
shuffle in January.
Bolivia
Spanish energy firm Repsol has substantially increased its commitment to Bolivia
and plans to inject $500 million worth of new investment into the Margarita-Huacaya
fields between now and March 2012. The investment will include a new natural gas
processing plant and new natural gas wells, bringing Repsol's production up from 3
million cubic meters (mcm) per day to 9 mcm per day. Repsol has also announced
that it is considering investing an additional $660 million to bring production up to 14
mcm per day by 2014. The increased investment has triggered a political dispute
between the governments of Tarija department and Chuquisaca department over the
distribution of royalties, as the Margarita-Huacaya field is located on the border of
the two departments.
Peru
The honeymoon period for Peruvian President Ollanta Humala appears to be over, as
indigenous protests against foreign investment-driven resource extraction projects
spread across the country. Protests in Cajamarca, Apurimac and Ancash have turned
violent in the past month in their demands that mining in those areas be halted and
concessions canceled. It became apparent Nov. 29 that the government could no
longer offer sufficient guarantees to the consortium building the Conga mine in
Cajamarca when it announced Nov. 29 that it would be suspending operations.
Humala has lost credibility with the far left in Peru by taking an accommodating
position with foreign investors in previous months, making it difficult for him to
negotiate in good faith with protesters and the failure of the Conga project is an
ominous sign for outside investors hoping to avoid conflict with the dome. The unrest
has seeped into the energy realm as well, as highlighted by a Nov. 14 incident in
Ayacucho in which 400 people from seven communities from Vinchos province
attempted to block the Libertadores highway and take over valve 5 of the
Accopampa pipeline. The protesters aimed to sever a fiber optic cable to the station
and prevent the export of natural gas from the Camisea project through the pipeline.
The communities protesting the pipeline are seeking compensation for the pipeline’s
use of their lands. In a confrontation that left 6 police and 10 protesters injured,
police stopped the protesters from achieving their goal. Nevertheless, this issue and
the ongoing mining disputes can be expected to escalate in December and beyond.
Mexico
Mexican state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) released new information in
November identifying the 22 mature oil fields it will seek to auction off in 2012. The
fields are located in six areas of northern Mexico: Altamira, Arenque, Atun, Panuco,
San Andre and Tierra Blanca. All have proven oil reserves and are currently
producing around 12,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd). Pemex hopes to increase this
to 70,000 bpd. The terms of the contracts to be offered to investors are expected to
be released in December. The fields are scheduled to be awarded in May of 2012.
All transitional Mexican tariff barriers to Chinese goods will fall to a flat tariff of 35
percent from the current range of 50 percent to 250 percent on Dec. 11, the 10th
anniversary of Mexico’s acceptance of China’s entry into the World Trade
Organization. Mexican businessmen have expressed concerns that the shift will lead
to Chinese trade dumping in Mexico, and there are particular concerns that Chinese
goods will damage the textiles industry. This shift in bilateral relations is likely to
increase tensions between the two countries and the number of bilateral disputes in
the WTO and other forums.
The overall security conditions in the states of Guerrero, Veracruz, Tamaulipas and
Coahuila quieted in November, according recent statistics regarding cartel-related
homicides that reflect a 70-90 percent drop compared to October statistics. The
retaliatory violence forecasted for those states in response to the large-scale killing
of Los Zetas members in Veracruz in September did not materialize in the Gulf coast
and northeastern states. Conditions in the Gulf coast region should remain
approximately the same in December, with the possible exception of the Monterrey
metropolitan area. Specifically, the city and surrounding municipalities are likely to
see a continuation of the slow, steady increase in cartel-on-cartel and military-oncartel conflict.
Los Zetas and their allies allegedly have perpetrated violence elsewhere in the
country, however. According to STRATFOR security sources, Los Zetas and its allies
in the Milenio cartel and Cartel Pacifico Sur are making incursions into key Sinaloa
Federation territory in Western Mexico, as shown by the mass killing of 24 Sinaloa
cartel personnel Nov. 23 in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, and the mass killing of Cartel
Jalisco Nuevo Generacion personnel Nov. 24 in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. STRATFOR
sources indicate that the Sinaloa state cities of Culiacan, Los Mochis, and Mazatlan,
as well as Hermosillo, Sonora state, and Guadalajara, should be watched for
pronounced cartel battles initiated by Los Zetas and its allies in December and
January.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola
Angola will be looking to amp up its natural gas production with the help of a $9
million investment from Chevron. This move should lead to Angola joining the Gas
Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). Angola also plans to auction off several of its
offshore oil blocks in the Kwanza Region and construct a 500-kilometer pipeline to
link six other offshore blocks. We expect Angola to continue offering its support to
Portugal amid economic woes for the former colonial power. Specifically, Portuguese
Galp Energia, in which Angolan state-owned oil company Sonangol has a 7 percent
stake, will look to double its production in Angola, while Angola will seek
opportunities to increase stakes in Portuguese state-run companies that Portugal
privatizes as part of its austerity plan. Sonangol is the largest single shareholder in
Milllennium BCP, Portugal's largest listed bank, and Angola's Banco BIC owns 10
percent of Portugal's Banco BPI. Angola currently holds 3.8 percent of Portuguese
businesses, most notably in the Portuguese banking, telecommunications and energy
sectors.
Cameroon
Cameroonian Prime Minister Philemon Yang announced a plan to increase public
spending in fiscal year 2012 by close to 9 percent, mostly in infrastructure projects
aimed at boosting youth employment. Meanwhile, by mid-December, all four
installments of a $10 million treasury bond will be issued, and together with
multimillion dollar loans from the World Bank and the African Development Bank will
go toward funding major infrastructure and power projects such as the Lom Pangar
Dam project, the Memve'ele hydroelectric project and the Kribi deep sea port.
Cameroon and Nigeria will continue to try to settle their decades-long border issues
as the United Nations works to keep the two states talking in order to finalize the
dispute over the Bakassi peninsula by 2012, a potentially oil-rich area that was
awarded to Cameroon in 2008 but is still subject to disagreement. The government
of Cameroon recognizes its need to develop its economy and improve its oil sector
capability and agricultural and mining sectors in order to reach its goal of becoming a
top 20 economy by 2025. However, corruption will continue to plague the efficiency
and reputation of the public sector of Cameroon, and many investors will continue to
look at Cameroon as a risky venture. For example, a probe by Cameroon's anti-graft
body recently found that 45 million euros ($62 million) in public funds had been lost
or embezzled in fiscal year 2009, and foreign watchdogs view President Paul Biya's
30-year regime as one of the world's most corrupt.
Equatorial Guinea
Although President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo appears to be drawing
attention to the country's need to diversify its economy and bring down its reliance
on petroleum, which accounts for more than 90 percent of the country's revenue, it
is likely, however, that the growth and development of the country will mostly be
concentrated in the energy sector. The president is asking foreign oil companies to
increase exploration projects and expedite the completion of production-sharing
contracts in Equatorial Guinea’s natural gas sector, which is thought to have a
potential of more than 4 trillion cubic feet.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice began investigations into U.S. oil
companies, finding them complicit in funneling money to the U.S. bank accounts of
Obiang's son, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue. Meanwhile, French authorities found
that Obiang's son and nine other family members had laundered more than $27
million in real estate purchases from 2000-2003. Although this is unlikely have a
major effect on relations between foreign companies and Equatorial Guinea, nor will
opposition complaints about the recent constitutional referendum, which may usher
in another 14 years of rule by President Obiang. Energy companies, particularly
Chevron, Marathon, Exxon-Mobil and Hess, are so well invested in the country that it
is unlikely that they will change their business practices anytime soon, and U.S.
companies will continue to profit from the country’s oil resources.
Gabon
The December parliamentary elections are expected to have little impact on the
political or business climate of Gabon, as President Omar Bongo's Gabonese
Democratic Party (GDP) will continue to dominate the government. Former Prime
Minister Jean Eyeghe Ndong called for a boycott of the Dec. 17 elections, but low
turnout will most likely result from voter apathy rather than active opposition to the
government. With his continuing grip on power, Bongo will continue to embark on his
"Emerging Gabon" strategy of creating Special Economic Zones throughout the
country in an effort to diversify the oil producing country's economy. Despite the
desire to diversify and strengthen other economic assets in Gabon, particularly
forestry, oil will remain the lifeblood of Gabon's economy. We expect to see Bongo
continuing his effort to attract investment from Europe as well as from Asian
countries such as China, India and Singapore. Gabon will be particularly interested in
closing a deal to partner with Oil India in the acquisition of Maurel et Prom of
France's permits in Gabon. Investors will also watch how Gabon continues in its
efforts to prepare for co-hosting the Africa Cup of Nations finals along with Equatorial
Guinea next year as an indicator of how capable Gabon's large-project construction
and logistics are.
Nigeria
In the next month, Nigeria will continue to reform and strengthen the security of its
energy industry. Nigeria will begin construction of a secondary gas pipeline to boost
energy output through its National Integrated Power Supply (NIPP) plants. The
Ministry of Petroleum and Resources expects this pipeline, with added security along
what lines?military to surveille is the most specific i can find, to boost the nation's
electricity generation, especially at the Olorunshogo Plant 1 and 2. Both Germany
and the U.S., amongst other international partners have expressed their support of
the program. Within the oil-rich Bayelsa State, security measures have been
improved. Nigerian police this past month deployed air and ground forces with
additional helicopter gunship and armored personal carriers for equipment, a State
Security Service detail and 15,000 police. Though speculation exists that these forces
are in place for the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Febuary 2012, their presence
will certainly help surveillance and decrease the risk of attacks on pipelines. Soldiers
have also been deployed to power stations of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria
after discussions over the privatization of the power sector have become contentious
among centralized politicians who may be tempted to halt the progress of these talks
through ties to regional militant groups.
Sudan
South Sudan is currently negotiating new contracts with foreign oil companies for the
transfer of oil blocks from Sudanese ownership, following the country's July 9th
independence. Though Glencore was rumored to act as a mediator for oil deals, the
South Sudanese government says it remains the only authority with which to
negotiate oil deals. Sudan is contesting South Sudanese President Salva Kiir's Nov. 8
decree to transfer Sudanese owned Sudapet shares of all South Sudanese territory
oil blocks to Nilepet, the South's oil marketing company. The two countries will
continue to negotiate the specifics of this transfer as well as other oil revenue
mechanisms such as pipeline transfer, export and refining taxes on a price per barrel
basis throughout the next month.
United States and Canada
U.S. Hydraulic Fracturing Methodology Discussion
In December, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to issue an
advance public notice outlining its proposed methodology for developing the rules for
the disclosure of hydraulic fracturing fluid chemicals, and it will solicit public
comments on its proposed methodology. The decision to open the methodology to
public comment came in response to a lawsuit by San Francisco-based Earthjustice.
Industry and nongovernmental organizations will comment on the proposal, but it is
an opportunity for community groups near hydraulic fracturing operations to express
their concerns about the fluids used in fracturing; anti-fracturing activists have
demonstrated their ability to generate thousands of letters or submissions from
community members, and calls for public comment have provided fruitful focal points
for grassroots organizing.
Canadian Oil Sands
On Dec. 2, the European Commission will vote on its Fuels Quality Directive, which
would effectively block the import of fuel derived from Canada’s oil sands. Most
observers expect the directive to receive a majority vote and to become EU policy.
Ottawa has made the directive a priority over the past six months in its dealings with
the EU and Canada has spent considerable political capital in Brussels on the issue. It
has also recruited Britain’s conservative government to act as a lobbyist within the
European Union to change the directive. If the European Parliament adopts the
proposal, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government will have to decide whether to
appeal the decision via the WTO or to accept the rule and begin a longer-term
campaign to build political support to change the law. Very little oil sands crude is
sent to the European market, but the designation of oil sands crude as a high-carbon
fuel could isolate oil sands in a segregated market and give leverage to U.S.
opponents of oil sands operations.