Water as a Source of Conflict
or Cooperation?
Lessons from the Indus Waters
Treaty
Ahmad Rafay Alam
Advocate of the High Courts
Vice President, Pakistan Environmental Law Association
Department of Law & Policy, LUMS
LUMS Water Program/Development Policy Research Centre
S
I.
C .
C H I N A
S ID N K I N G (C H IN A )
A F G H A N I S TA N
TA RBEL A DAM
W E S T E R N R IV E R
K A S H M I R
W ARSAK DAM
IN
K IS H E N G A N G A
H /E P L A N T
DU
W U LLA R LA K E
S R IN A G A R B A G L I H A R
IV
R
B
VE
EN
A
UM
VE
RI
R
RI
SU
AV
I
IR
AS
BE
J R IV
TLE
T IB E T (C H IN A )
ER
PO N G D A M
VE
H A R IK E
H /W
B ALL OKI
H /W
RUPAR HEADW ORK
FE R O Z EP U R
HEADW ORK
CH
EN
AB
TA UNSA B ARRAGE
BHAKRA DAM
H
EL
JH
C
Q A D IR A B A
H /W R
R
T R IM M U
BARRAGE
K HANKI
H /W
R
R IV
ER
ER
CHASHMA
BARRAGE
R
M A R A LA
H /W
JAM M U
M AN G LA DAM
RASUL
HEADWORK
D E R A S I M A IL
KHAN
VE
JA MMU
SA LAL
IS L A M A B A D
KOHAT
RI
H /E P L A N T
R A W A L P IN D I
PESHAWER
KALABAGH DAM
S
S U L E IM A N K E
HEADWORK
IS L A M
HEADWORK
M IT H A N K O T
JA C O B A BA D
PA NJNAD
HEADW ORK
GUDDU BARRAGE
E A S T E R N R IV E R
SU K K U R B A R R A G E
BELA
IN T E R H A T IO N A L
BOUNDARY
M ANCHUR LAKE
KOTRI
BARRAGE
I N D I A
KARACHI
IN D U S B A S IN
BOUNDARY
A R E A = 3 5 0 ,0 0 0 S Q M
IN F L O W = 1 7 0 M A F
LEG END
RANN O F KUCHH
A R A B IA N S E A
IN T . B O U N D A R Y
I N D U S B A S IN B O U N D A R Y
R IV E R
Pakistan’s Dependence on Water
 80% of Pakistan arid; 20% water-availability
 95% of freshwater (mostly glacial melt) used to irrigate some 40
million acres of land
 Nearly 75% of water resource is available during the 3 months of the
Monsoon season (water storage capacity)
 Irrigation accounts for 24% of GDP, 90% of exports and 48% of
workforce
 The Pakistani economy has developed by harnessing the Indus Basin
 The “poverty-water nexus”
 Water is an existential issue for Pakistan
Origins of the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960
 Partition of Land – 1947
 Created riparian relations where none existed
 David Lilianthal’s vision of joint watershed management
 The “Good Offices of the World Bank”
 Partition of Waters – 1960
 Indus Waters Treaty, 1960
 Negotiated when international water law in its infancy
 Highly technical; meant to be “politician proof”
Characteristics of the IWT
 Does not divide waters, divides rivers
 Eastern Rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) to India
 Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan
 Bilateral; does not include other riparians China and Afghanistan
 Did not consider sub-national issues (Sindh & Kashmir)
 Pakistan allowed to use waters of certain tributaries of Ravi River for
agriculture (Annex B)
 India allowed to use waters of Western Rivers for agriculture (Annex C),
generation of hydro-electric power (Annex D), storage (Annex E)
 Co-signed by third party
 World Bank assisted parties to agreement
 “Financial Provisions” of IWT (Article V) dealt contributions from India and
Indus Basin Development Fund (US$ 800m) to finance replacement works:
 8 link canals (400 miles)
 2 storage dams (Tarbela on Indus and Mangla on Jhelum)
 Power Stations
 2,500 tubewells etc.
Characteristics II
 Creation of Indian & Pakistan Indus Water Commissioners (the
Permanent Indus Commission, Article VIII)
 To exchange of information
 To provide notice
 “Settlement of Differences and Disputes (Article IX)
 Questions concerning interpretation firstly to be examined by Permanent




Indus Commission
Inability to resolve question = “difference”
Differences to be resolved by Neutral Expert. Decision of the Neutral Expert
to be final and binding
 Comprehensive process of appointment
Neutral expert confined to 23 questions (set out in Annex F)
If question outside authority of Neutral Expert, then it is to be settled by
referring it to a Court of Arbitration
 Court to consist of 7 arbitrators, two appointed by each party, the rest through
a comprehensive process (Annex G)
 No hierarchy; reference not an appeal
 IT has worked and withstood the test of time!
Pakistan’s Concern over IWT
 Construction of dams on Western Rivers a violation of the
“spirit of the Treaty” and can cause up to 30% water loss
 Construction of dams will give India ability to affect Pakistan’s
water resource (assistance to Afghanistan in construction of
water-storage dams also alluded to)
 Filing of Baghliar Resoivor cited as proof of intentions (though
officially Baghliar issue has been resolved)
 Water issues have been inextricably linked to Indo-Pak
political issues (Iyer: “Water is not an issue between India and
Pakistan, it is an issue of India and Pakistan”)
Indian view on IWT
 Elaborate restrictions on water use on Western Rivers
 Fear that Pakistan is trying to nullify the permissible uses
clause of the IWT.
 India will not cut off its economic nose to spite Pakistan
(“Many pondages do not make a storage”)
 Poor water usage and water infrastructure in Pakistan
(low cost recovery, “BNR”)
 Restriction
on run-of-river dams impact
development in Kashmir and elsewhere
energy
Water a Source of Conflict

Only 5-6 incidents in history where water a source of conflict; it is primarily a source of
cooperation

Current paradigm under IWT a zero sum game. Disputes amount to a “stay order”, cost
escalation and a waste of time

Very little that can be done about perceptions

Treaty now facing new challenges:
 Climate Change
 EIA’s, minimum flows unheard of in 1960
 Water scarcity (how do you allocate a scarce resource?)
 Groundwater

Rhetoric is going out of control (the unintended consequence of “politician proof ”)

IWT is hardwired into Pakistani security establishment
 Shadows of unresolved Kashmir issues

Indus Basin one of many watershed concerns for India
Water as a Source of Cooperation
 Shadow of the Treaty is only 50 years old. The Indus Civilization is
5000 years old. No competition.
 Move outside IWT paradigm of dividing the resource
 LUMS/ORF Indus Basin Water Usage Mapping Study
 Must create an alternative dialogue
 Must have long term view. There are a billion and a half people,
Children of the Monsoon, that are going to be affected by waterrelated issues in the coming decades. We cannot sit back and
react. We must formulate and lead this debate
 Indo-Pak cooperation on water (outside Kashmir and War on
Terror) can be leveraged (IWT resulted in US$ (1960) 1 billion in
investment from WB IWDF) and will create enormous international
goodwill.
Can Peace Parks be a Way
Forward?
 Siachen, the “highest battleground in the world” or “a struggle
between two bald men for a comb”
 IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas
 UNESCO World Heritage list
 Rio Declaration
 Hague & Geneva Conventions
 Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use
of Environmental Modification (necessity, proportionality, selectivity
& humanity)
 Constitutional Rights
 Local laws
 Siachen Peace Park Management System
 Huge international goodwill; a chance to change the discourse
Thank you – Be Green