Hit Tracker Power Projection
Torii Hunter 1-year report:
2008 Projections, using 2007 data
Hit Tracker Power Projection Method
The Hit Tracker Power Projection method uses detailed individual analysis of
every long fly ball hit by a player, and the ability to project those fly balls into
other parks and weather conditions, to create the most accurate possible
projection of a player’s future hitting performance.
Key Steps:
• Observation and analysis of all long fly balls (any ball hit far enough to
approach or clear the outfield fence of any MLB ballpark) for specified time
period (1-3 seasons)
• Projection of each long fly ball, via Hit Tracker, into each of the 30 MLB
parks, in each park’s average weather conditions.
• Evaluation of each projected ball as home run, off wall or “catchable”.
• Evaluation of each “catchable” ball via range model as Flyout or hit.
• Compilation of projected results for each ballpark, via substitution of
projected results for actual results, and weighted towards more recent results
(e.g. 3-2-1 weighting if 3-year analysis).
• Compilation of projected results as member of each team via 2009 schedule
Long Fly Balls, Actual Landing Spots
500’
450’
400’
350’
300’
250’
200’
= HR
= 2B
= 3B
= 1B
= FLY OUT
Torii Hunter, 2007
Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 1 of 2
Date
4/2/2007
4/2/2007
4/9/2007
4/11/2007
4/14/2007
4/17/2007
4/17/2007
4/20/2007
4/21/2007
4/22/2007
4/23/2007
4/23/2007
4/25/2007
4/25/2007
4/29/2007
4/29/2007
5/1/2007
5/1/2007
5/2/2007
5/3/2007
5/5/2007
5/6/2007
5/10/2007
5/13/2007
5/13/2007
5/18/2007
5/19/2007
5/22/2007
5/25/2007
5/26/2007
5/30/2007
6/4/2007
6/5/2007
6/6/2007
6/8/2007
6/12/2007
6/13/2007
6/14/2007
6/18/2007
6/20/2007
6/23/2007
6/25/2007
6/25/2007
Hitter
Hitter
Team
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Pitcher
Bedard, Erik
Bedard, Erik
Pavano, Carl
Farnsworth, Kyle
Glover, Gary
Weaver, Jeff
Weaver, Jeff
Braun, Ryan
Greinke, Zack
De La Rosa, Jorge
Sowers, Jeremy
Betancourt, Rafael
Perez, Odalis
Perez, Odalis
Maroth, Mike
Zumaya, Joel
Ryu, Jae Kuk
Camp, Shawn
Seo, Jae
Reyes, Al
Tavarez, Julian
Schilling, Curt
Contreras, Jose
Vasquez, Virgil
Ledezma, Wilfredo
Capuano, Chris
Bush, Dave
Wilson, C.J.
Tallet, Brian
Ohka, Tomo
Garland, Jon
Weaver, Jered
Escobar, Kelvim
Lackey, John
Simontacchi
Davies, Kyle
James, Chuck
Hudson, Tim
Heilman, Aaron
Perez, Oliver
Johnson, Josh
Halladay, Roy
Halladay, Roy
Pitcher
Team
BAL
BAL
NYY
NYY
TB
SEA
SEA
KC
KC
KC
CLE
CLE
KC
KC
DET
DET
TB
TB
TB
TB
BOS
BOS
CWS
DET
DET
MIL
MIL
TEX
TOR
TOR
CWS
LAA
LAA
LAA
WAS
ATL
ATL
ATL
NYM
NYM
FLA
TOR
TOR
Inning
2
5
7
8
5
4
5
6
4
1
7
9
2
7
6
8
5
8
2
9
6
3
7
1
7
3
2
8
5
3
3
2
5
4
7
4
3
2
9
5
3
4
5
True Dist.
Ballpark
Metrodome
366
Metrodome
356
Metrodome
343
Metrodome
359
Metrodome
374
Safeco Field
342
Safeco Field
362
Kauffman Stadium
381
Kauffman Stadium
358
Kauffman Stadium
403
Metrodome
389
Metrodome
335
Metrodome
380
Metrodome
339
Comerica Park
407
Comerica Park
404
Tropicana Field
335
Tropicana Field
361
Tropicana Field
419
Tropicana Field
358
Metrodome
372
Metrodome
353
Metrodome
322
Metrodome
420
Metrodome
390
Miller Park
378
Miller Park
435
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
406
Metrodome
359
Metrodome
357
Metrodome
305
Angels Stadium
396
Angels Stadium
406
Angels Stadium
337
Metrodome
379
Metrodome
349
Metrodome
345
Metrodome
316
Shea Stadium
346
Shea Stadium
364
Dolphins Stadium
371
Metrodome
354
Metrodome
369
SOB
99.9
95.4
110.3
95.4
98.7
109.9
100.8
101.5
105.9
104.5
102.7
91.3
102.5
92.7
103.4
101.6
91.6
107.9
106.7
96
98.8
94.5
88.8
108.3
103.3
103.2
109.4
109.7
94.8
99.5
103.6
100.2
106.2
93.4
110.7
93.8
94.4
95.8
93.5
98.3
102.9
104.1
100
Elev.
Angle
25.1
30.1
16.7
33.7
27.7
17.3
38.1
23.4
19.3
25.4
37.1
36.3
28.1
36.5
36.8
34.3
33.8
18.2
26.8
28.7
27.7
28.2
34.1
24.3
37.6
26
26.5
25.6
35.8
43.4
16.8
37
28.2
42
18.2
35.8
37.6
21.4
29.1
35.6
22.1
21.3
25.3
Horiz.
Angle
73
73.2
113.1
74.4
80.3
113.5
114.6
84.3
108.4
91.9
110
108.9
121.5
66.6
116.7
92.3
108.6
83.5
91.9
79.3
76.9
94.6
70.1
95
110
115.6
86.7
116.3
96.1
88.8
122
98.5
69
63.3
91.7
73.1
64.8
69.2
74.7
114.4
106.2
118.2
105.6
Outcome
HR
2B
2B
2B
2B
2B
HR
2B
2B
FLY
HR
FLY
HR
2B
HR
FLY
FLY
FLY
HR
FLY
2B
FLY
FLY
HR
HR
HR
HR
HR
FLY
FLY
2B
HR
HR
FLY
FLY
2B
HR
2B
FLY
HR
2B
2B
FLY
Torii Hunter, 2007
Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 2 of 2
Date
6/28/2007
6/28/2007
6/30/2007
7/4/2007
7/4/2007
7/6/2007
7/6/2007
7/21/2007
7/21/2007
7/23/2007
7/25/2007
7/27/2007
7/28/2007
7/30/2007
7/31/2007
7/31/2007
8/1/2007
8/7/2007
8/8/2007
8/8/2007
8/11/2007
8/14/2007
8/15/2007
8/19/2007
8/20/2007
8/21/2007
8/24/2007
8/25/2007
8/26/2007
8/27/2007
8/27/2007
8/31/2007
8/31/2007
9/4/2007
9/7/2007
9/8/2007
9/12/2007
9/14/2007
9/18/2007
9/24/2007
9/24/2007
9/29/2007
9/30/2007
Hitter
Hitter
Team
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Hunter, Torii MIN
Pitcher
Burnett, A.J.
Burnett, A.J.
Miller, Andrew
Mussina, Mike
Mussina, Mike
Floyd, Gavin
Garland, Jon
Weaver, Jered
Weaver, Jered
Marcum, Shaun
Litsch, Jesse
Byrd, Paul
Borowski, Joe
Meche, Gil
De La Rosa, Jorge
De La Rosa, Jorge
Bannister, Brian
Bannister, Brian
Perez, Odalis
Bale, John
Lackey, John
Rowland-Smith, Ryan
Green, Sean
Millwood, Kevin
Ramirez, Horacio
Washburn, Jarrod
Baez, Danys
Liz, Radhames
Shuey, Paul
Byrd, Paul
Byrd, Paul
Davies, Kyle
Davies, Kyle
Betancourt, Rafael
Vazquez, Javier
Contreras, Jose
Meche, Gil
Robertson, Nate
Millwood, Kevin
Robertson, Nate
Rodney, Fernando
Okajima, Hideki
Tavarez, Julian
Pitcher
Team
TOR
TOR
DET
NYY
NYY
CWS
CWS
LAA
LAA
TOR
TOR
CLE
CLE
KC
KC
KC
KC
KC
KC
KC
LAA
SEA
SEA
TEX
SEA
SEA
BAL
BAL
BAL
CLE
CLE
KC
KC
CLE
CWS
CWS
KC
DET
TEX
DET
DET
BOS
BOS
Inning
4
5
5
4
7
3
3
4
7
6
4
7
9
4
2
3
7
2
3
8
2
7
9
4
6
1
9
6
7
4
6
1
5
9
3
6
7
2
7
1
8
9
1
True Dist.
Ballpark
Metrodome
430
Metrodome
390
Comerica Park
337
Yankee Stadium
358
Yankee Stadium
389
U.S. Cellular Field
364
U.S. Cellular Field
390
Metrodome
349
Metrodome
433
Rogers Centre
436
Rogers Centre
380
Progressive Field
328
Progressive Field
359
Metrodome
410
Metrodome
379
Metrodome
413
Metrodome
326
Kauffman Stadium
355
Kauffman Stadium
351
Kauffman Stadium
387
Angels Stadium
368
Safeco Field
356
Safeco Field
390
Metrodome
409
Metrodome
344
Metrodome
308
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
379
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
387
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
378
Progressive Field
388
Progressive Field
360
Metrodome
409
Metrodome
403
Metrodome
337
U.S. Cellular Field
374
U.S. Cellular Field
394
Kauffman Stadium
385
Metrodome
353
Metrodome
339
Comerica Park
403
Comerica Park
389
Fenway Park
347
Fenway Park
342
SOB
107.5
109.2
95.5
95.8
101.8
98.2
103
93.3
109
115.6
99
93.4
107.5
107.3
104.9
104.3
91.4
99.1
93.9
105.1
101.9
99.7
101.9
104.3
100.2
108.8
100.1
100.4
104.8
111.1
95.3
105.4
104.7
93.3
96.7
100.6
107.9
102
98.3
105.1
105.7
105.5
98.7
Elev.
Angle
29.2
22.5
43.1
26.9
25
38.1
28.2
35.4
29.9
23
35.6
43.1
18.2
23.4
24
30.1
39.7
22.9
28.8
22.8
21.5
26.1
29.6
35.3
21.7
14.8
28.9
35.5
21.4
18.7
30.5
31.2
25.5
40.5
34.9
37.1
20
20.5
23.5
31.3
22.1
19.5
23.2
Horiz.
Angle
89.4
120.1
105.2
96.4
95.2
107.5
113.6
76.8
103.5
114.4
90.8
74.5
99.3
89.1
117.1
88.6
64.6
67.9
62.3
79.8
83.9
119.1
109.7
93.7
70.4
112
113.5
112.3
97.7
97.2
82.8
110.1
96.1
73.1
87.6
100.8
80
80.1
62.6
81.2
93.8
112.9
102.1
Outcome
HR
HR
FLY
FLY
2B
HR
HR
FLY
HR
HR
FLY
FLY
2B
FLY
HR
FLY
2B
2B
FLY
2B
2B
2B
HR
FLY
FLY
FLY
HR
HR
2B
FLY
FLY
HR
FLY
FLY
FLY
HR
2B
2B
2B
FLY
FLY
1B
2B
Torii Hunter, 2007
Projected 2008 Batted Ball Events and Averages by Ballpark
Park
Fenway Park
AT&T Park
Metrodome
Dodger Stadium
New Yankee Stadium
Wrigley Field
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Great American Ball Park
Miller Park
PETCO Park
Dolphins Stadium
Citizens Bank Park
Busch Stadium
Progressive Field
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
U.S. Cellular Field
Tropicana Field
Nationals Park
Turner Field
Safeco Field
Minute Maid Park
Coors Field
Rogers Centre
Angels Stadium
PNC Park
Chase Field
Comerica Park
Kauffman Stadium
McAfee Coliseum
Citi Field
Average
Net 1B
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1.0
Net 2B/3B
4
-3
5
-7
-5
-2
-4
-6
-5
-7
-2
-4
-6
-3
-7
-7
-2
-6
-6
-3
2
-4
-4
-6
-4
2
-2
-3
-3
1
-3.2
Projected Events
Net HR Net FLY
0
-3
4
0
-1
-3
6
2
3
3
1
2
2
3
3
4
2
4
3
5
0
3
1
4
2
5
0
4
2
6
2
6
-1
4
1
6
1
6
-1
5
-4
3
-1
6
-1
6
0
7
-2
7
-6
5
-5
8
-5
9
-7
11
-10
10
-0.4
4.6
Net Hits
3
0
3
-2
-3
-2
-3
-4
-4
-5
-3
-4
-5
-4
-6
-6
-4
-6
-6
-5
-3
-6
-6
-7
-7
-5
-8
-9
-11
-10
-4.6
Net Bases
7
9
5
9
1
-1
-1
-1
-3
-3
-5
-5
-5
-7
-7
-7
-9
-9
-9
-11
-13
-13
-13
-13
-17
-21
-25
-27
-35
-39
-8.9
BA
0.292
0.287
0.292
0.283
0.282
0.283
0.282
0.280
0.280
0.278
0.282
0.280
0.278
0.280
0.277
0.277
0.280
0.277
0.277
0.278
0.282
0.277
0.277
0.275
0.275
0.278
0.273
0.272
0.268
0.270
0.279
Averages
OBP
SLG
0.338
0.517
0.334
0.520
0.338
0.513
0.331
0.520
0.329
0.507
0.331
0.503
0.329
0.503
0.328
0.503
0.328
0.500
0.326
0.500
0.329
0.497
0.328
0.497
0.326
0.497
0.328
0.493
0.325
0.493
0.325
0.493
0.328
0.490
0.325
0.490
0.325
0.490
0.326
0.487
0.329
0.483
0.325
0.483
0.325
0.483
0.323
0.483
0.323
0.477
0.326
0.470
0.322
0.463
0.320
0.460
0.317
0.447
0.318
0.440
0.327
0.490
OPS
0.855
0.854
0.852
0.851
0.836
0.834
0.833
0.831
0.828
0.826
0.826
0.824
0.823
0.821
0.818
0.818
0.818
0.815
0.815
0.813
0.813
0.808
0.808
0.806
0.800
0.796
0.785
0.780
0.764
0.758
0.817
Torii Hunter, 2007
Projected 2008 Home Runs per 162 games by Ballpark
2008 HR per 162 Games
Park
Angels Stadium
AT&T Park
Busch Stadium
Chase Field
Citi Field
Citizens Bank Park
Comerica Park
Coors Field
Dodger Stadium
Dolphins Stadium
Fenway Park
Great American Ball Park
Kauffman Stadium
McAfee Coliseum
Metrodome
Miller Park
Minute Maid Park
Nationals Park
New Yankee Stadium
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
PETCO Park
PNC Park
Progressive Field
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Rogers Centre
Safeco Field
Tropicana Field
Turner Field
U.S. Cellular Field
Wrigley Field
Average
HR
28.4
32.4
30.4
22.3
18.2
29.4
23.3
27.3
34.4
28.4
28.4
31.4
23.3
21.3
27.3
30.4
24.3
29.4
31.4
30.4
31.4
26.3
28.4
30.4
27.3
27.3
27.3
29.4
30.4
29.4
28.0
Rank
15
2
6
28
30
11
26
19
1
15
15
3
26
29
19
6
25
11
3
6
3
24
15
6
19
19
19
11
6
11
Torii Hunter, 2007
Projected 2008 Home Runs and Averages by Team
Team
BOS
SF
LAD
MIN
CHC
NYY
BAL
CIN
SD
MIL
FLA
PHI
STL
CLE
TB
HOU
CWS
ATL
WAS
TEX
TOR
COL
SEA
PIT
LAA
ARI
DET
KC
OAK
NYM
Average
HR
25.5
27.2
28.3
24.6
26.1
26.5
26.3
26.8
27.0
26.3
25.3
25.8
26.3
25.0
24.9
24.0
25.9
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.0
25.1
24.7
24.7
25.1
23.1
22.8
22.9
22.6
21.4
25.2
BA
0.285
0.282
0.281
0.284
0.281
0.280
0.281
0.279
0.279
0.280
0.280
0.279
0.279
0.280
0.280
0.281
0.278
0.278
0.278
0.277
0.278
0.278
0.278
0.278
0.277
0.279
0.276
0.276
0.274
0.275
0.279
OBP
0.332
0.330
0.329
0.332
0.329
0.328
0.328
0.327
0.327
0.327
0.328
0.327
0.326
0.327
0.327
0.328
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.325
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.325
0.325
0.326
0.324
0.324
0.322
0.323
0.327
SLG%
0.503
0.505
0.506
0.498
0.497
0.498
0.497
0.497
0.497
0.496
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.491
0.490
0.489
0.491
0.490
0.490
0.489
0.488
0.487
0.486
0.485
0.485
0.482
0.476
0.475
0.471
0.468
0.490
OPS
0.836
0.834
0.834
0.830
0.826
0.826
0.825
0.824
0.823
0.823
0.820
0.820
0.819
0.818
0.818
0.817
0.816
0.816
0.815
0.814
0.814
0.813
0.812
0.811
0.810
0.808
0.800
0.798
0.793
0.791
0.817
Torii Hunter, 2007
Comparison to Actual 2008 Results
The Hit Tracker Power Projection method predicted a drop in power, BA/OBP
and SLG due to Torii Hunter’s switch from the Twins to the Angels. Hunter’s
actual 2008 performance conformed to the projection fairly well: his OPS and BA
projections were extremely accurate, and the OBP and SLG projections were
only slightly less accurate.
2007 Actual
2008 Projected
2008 Actual
HR
28
25.1
21
BA
0.287
0.277
0.278
OBP
0.334
0.325
0.344
SLG%
0.505
0.485
0.466
OPS
0.839
0.810
0.810
Torii Hunter, 2007