STRICTLY BUSINESS
BUSINESS
April 2015
2015
Business Activity
8
%
6
Annual average growth rate in Rotorua's
business activity index
4
Annual average growth rate in New
Zealand's business activity index
There were 251 cars (including both new and exoverseas car types) registered in the Rotorua Postal
District during March 2015. This was greater than the
194 cars registered in February 2015 and an increase
from the 181 cars registered in March 2014. The annual
average growth rate in the number of cars registered in
the Rotorua Postal District was 19.8% for the year ended
March 2015.
2
0
Residential Real Estate Sales
-2
120
-4
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
Source: APR Consultants
20%
100
10%
80
0%
60
-10%
-20%
40
-30%
20
-40%
0
-50%
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
The APR Business Index is constructed from key
economic indicators. The annual average growth rate in
the index provides an indication of changes in the level
of business activity. The annual average growth rate in
Rotorua’s index was 4.4% for the year ended March
2015. This was slower than the 5.3% annual average
growth rate in APR’s New Zealand index during the
same period.
30%
Houses
KEY INDICATOR TRENDS
This section of “Strictly Business” examines trends in key
indicators of Rotorua’s economic activity.
Building Consents
30%
20%
15
10%
0%
10
-10%
-20%
5
-30%
0
There were 106 houses with a median sale price of
$262,550 sold in Rotorua during March 2015. This was
an increase from the 95 houses sold in February 2015
and greater than the 86 houses sold in March 2014. The
annual average growth rate in the number of houses
sold in Rotorua was 1.2% for the year ended March
2015.
Quarterly Retail Sales – Bay of Plenty Region
($millions)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
$1,400.00
$1,200.00
$1,000.00
-40%
$800.00
-50%
$600.00
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
$400.00
$200.00
$0.00
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Car Registrations
Mar-13
There were nine new building consents valued at $3.1
million issued for residential dwellings in Rotorua during
March 2015. This was greater than the six consents
issued in February 2015 and greater than the six
consents issued in March 2014. The annual average
growth rate in the number of new building consents
issued for residential dwellings in Rotorua was 9.9% for
the year ended March 2015.
Dec-12
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Sep-12
Annual average growth rate
Jun-12
Consents
Annual average growth rate
Source: Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
BOP Axis
retail sales
($ millions)
Title
Annual average growth rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand
The nominal value of Bay of Plenty’s retail sales
decreased from $1,305.8 million in the December 2014
quarter to $1,222.3 million in the March 2015 quarter.
There were $1,195 million of sales recorded in the March
2014 quarter. The annual average growth rate in the
nominal value of Bay of Plenty’s retail sales was 3.5%
for the year ended March 2015.
300
30%
250
25%
140,000
8%
200
20%
120,000
6%
150
15%
100,000
100
10%
80,000
50
5%
60,000
0
0%
40,000
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Annual average growth rate
4%
2%
0%
20,000
-2%
0
-4%
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Car registrations
Source: New Zealand Transport Agency
Visitor Arrivals
Visitors to Rotorua commercial accomodation providers
Annual average growth rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand
There
were
104,898
visitors
to
Rotorua’s
accommodation providers during March 2015. This was
a decrease from the 112,052 visitors in February 2015
and greater than the 89,105 visitors recorded in March
2015. The annual average growth rate in the number of
visitors to Rotorua’s accommodation providers was 7.4%
for the year ended March 2015.
NATIONAL ECONOMIC UPDATE
This section of the Economic Monitor presents current
information of recent national business events, along
with an update of key economic indicators.
There were 8,803 houses with a median sale price of
$475,000 sold in New Zealand during March 2015.
This was an increase from the 6,898 houses sold in
February 2015 and greater than the 7,315 houses sold
in March 2014. The annual average growth rate in the
number of houses sold in New Zealand was -2.1% for
the year ended March 2015.
Quarterly Retail Sales
$ millions
$25,000
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
$20,000
KEY INDICATOR TRENDS
$15,000
Building Consents
$10,000
3,000
40%
30%
2,500
$5,000
20%
2,000
10%
$0
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
-10%
1,000
Sep-12
Jun-12
0%
1,500
-20%
NZ retail sales
-30%
500
Annual average growth rate
-40%
0
-50%
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Consents
Annual average growth rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand
The nominal value of New Zealand’s retail sales
decreased from $20,851 million in the December 2014
quarter to $19,253 million in the March 2015 quarter.
The value of retail sales in the March 2014 quarter was
$18,321 million. The annual average growth rate in the
nominal value of New Zealand’s retail sales was 4.4%
for the year ended March 2015.
Average Monthly Wholesale Interest Rates
4
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.5
3
3.0
2.5
%
There were 2,272 new building consents with a
combined value of approximately $757.1 million issued
for residential dwellings in New Zealand during March
2015. This was an increase from the 1,758 consents
issued in February 2015 and an increase from the 1,999
consents issued in March 2014. The annual average
growth rate in the number of new building consents
issued for residential dwellings in New Zealand was
11.9% for the year ended March 2015.
Source: Statistics New Zealand and APR analysis
2.5
%
Car Registrations
2
2.0
25,000
25%
1.5
20,000
20%
1
1.5
1.0
90 day bill yield (LHS axis)
5-year Govt. bond yield (RHS)
0.5
15,000
15%
0
0.0
Apr 2015
Mar 2015
Feb 2015
Jan 2015
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
10,000
0.5
10%
5%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
0
0%
The five-year government bond yield stood at an
average of 3.11% as at April 2015. This was less than
the average of 3.21% recorded as at March 2015. The
five-year average bond yield recorded for April 2014 was
4.23%. The average 90-day bill yield during April 2015
was 3.63%. This was on a par with the yield recorded in
March 2015 and greater than the 3.24% average
recorded as at April 2014.
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
5,000
Car registrations
Annual average growth rate
Source: New Zealand Transport Agency
There were 20,388 cars (including both new and exoverseas car types) registered in New Zealand during
March 2015. There were 17,629 cars registered in
February 2015 and 18,239 cars registered in March
2014. The annual average growth rate in the number of
car registrations recorded in New Zealand was 19.0% for
the year ended March 2015.
Residential Real Estate Sales
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Average Monthly Exchange Rates
84
82
80
20%
15%
10%
78
76
5%
0%
74
TWI
-5%
-10%
-15%
Annual average growth rate
Source: Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
70
Apr-2015
Mar-2015
Feb-2015
Jan-2015
Dec-2014
Nov-2014
Oct-2014
Sep-2014
Aug-2014
Jul-2014
Jun-2014
May-2014
Apr-2014
Mar-2014
Feb-2014
Jan-2014
Dec-2013
Nov-2013
Oct-2013
Sep-2013
Aug-2013
Jul-2013
Jun-2013
May-2013
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
House sales
NZD/USD exchange rate (RHS axis)
72
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
0.88
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.84
0.83
0.82
0.81
0.80
0.79
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.75
0.74
0.73
0.72
0.71
0.70
0.69
0.68
In terms of average monthly exchange rates, NZ$1.00
traded against US$0.7583 during April 2015, and was
US$0.7473 during March 2015. The average value of the
New Zealand dollar against the Greenback during April
2014 was US$0.8620. The average nominal value of
the Trade-Weighted Index (TWI) was 78.27 points as at
March 2015 and 79.17 as at April 2015. The average
nominal TWI during March 2014 was 81.62.
International Visitor Arrivals
450,000
8%
400,000
7%
350,000
6%
300,000
5%
250,000
4%
200,000
3%
150,000
100,000
2%
50,000
1%
-
0%
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
International visitor arrivals
Annual average growth rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand
There were 291,784 international visitor arrivals to New
Zealand during March 2015. This was a decrease from
the 343,457 visitors recorded in February 2015 and
greater than the 253,561 visitors recorded in March 2014.
The annual average growth rate in the number of
international visitor arrivals to New Zealand was 7.1% for
the year ended March 2015.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
In the ANZ’s Business Outlook Survey for April 2015 a
net 30.2% of firms surveyed were optimistic about
business conditions in 12 months’ time. This was a
decrease from a net 35.8% of firms surveyed who were
optimistic about New Zealand’s future economic
conditions in the ANZ’s March 2015 survey. The
services sector (a net 41.6%), the retail sector (a net
27.5%), the manufacturing sector (a net 24.6%) and the
construction sector (22.2%) and were all relatively
optimistic, while the least optimistic group by far was the
agriculture sector (a net negative 7.1%).
Firms’ activity expectations as at April 2015 for the year
ahead regarding their own business (a net 41.3%) were
slightly lower than March 2015’s confidence level (a net
42.2%). A net 21.8% of businesses surveyed expected
to hire more staff in the year to April 2016.
ANZ Business Confidence Index
Source: ANZ
DISCLAIMER
(1) Although the monitor incorporates the most recent information
available, many of the figures are provisional. Accordingly, no liability can
be accepted for the accuracy of the material contained herein.
(2) Businesses and individuals are advised to seek professional advice
before making major business decisions and any decisions based on the
information contained in this report are made entirely at their own risk.