Graduate Macroeconomic Theory Joe Haslag Department of Economics, University of Missouri E-mail address: [email protected] URL: http://www. The author thanks students for years of honing the topics covered in this text.. Abstract. Replace this text with your own abstract. Contents Introduction v Chapter 1. A Static Decision Problem 1 1. A One-Period Model 2 2. Competitive equilibrium 7 3. Pareto optimum 9 4. Comparative statics 11 5. Government 14 6. Problems 18 Chapter 2. Intertemporal models 21 1. Consumers 21 2. Firm 25 3. Competitive equilibrium 25 4. Problems 28 Chapter 3. Overlapping generations 1. Problems 31 44 iii Introduction \chapter*{Preface}The purpose of this book is to develop a one-semester course that covers the essential topics for a first-year graduate course in macroeconomic theory. The material is also suitable for an advanced undergraduate course. v CHAPTER 1 A Static Decision Problem Because the questions are essentially ones about aggregate economic behavior, the analytical framework will deal with the simultaneous solution of activities in several markets. In short, a model economy in which two or more markets—quantities and prices—are determined simulataneously is a general equilibrium model. For our purposes, we begin with the simplest possible general equilibrium model; that is one with three markets and three prices. As we proceed, it will be convenient to normalize the price of one good and that Walrasian economies will have one market that is dependent on what is going on in the other markets. For our purposes, this means we will have two independent markets and two relative prices. The tools learned in this chapter will form the backbone of our anlaysis. Indeed, the reader will see that modifications to this basic structure permit us to study more complicated, and interesting, questions. But the same basic tools will be applied to these setups. Before specifying the model economy, it is important to present the key features common to most descriptions of general equilibrium models. The four features are: (1) Technologies and endowments (2) Preferences (3) Trades (4) Equilibrium concept The first three pieces define the structure of the model economy while the fourth piece governs how these three pieces fit together in our analysis. 1 2 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM 1. A One-Period Model Consider a model economy in which all trades take place in a single period. Imagine after that period that the economy ends and market participation is not permitted. Though perhaps unrealistic, such an environment permits us to see how a general equilibrium is constructed. The economy has two types of participants: consumers and firms. We now turn to a description of consumers and firms. 1.1. Consumers. Consumers are endowed with one unit of time and some quantity of physical capital. The total amount of capital endowed is represented by k0 . Consumers decide how to divide their time between leisure, which is enjoyable, and labor, which is not. When consumers provide labor services, they receive wages. Capital is owned by consumers and can be rented to firms or be permitted to lay idle. Consumers are compensated for the quantity of capital they rent to firms. In addition to leisure, consumers also enjoy eating quantities of the single, perishable consumption good.1 The quantities of the consumption good are nonnegative. We assume there are N of these consumers populating this economy. Each consumer has preferences over the consumption good, denoted by c, and leisure, denoted by l. Consumers are identical in the sense that they each have the same endowment and the same preferences. Formally, each consumer is endowed with one unit of time and the same quantity of capital, k0 N. Preferences are captured by a utility function, represented as u (c, l). We assume that both arguments in this function are goods; that is, each consumer prefers more of each item to less. We further assume that the additional utility generated by an additional quantity of each good is decreasing. 1For readers who want something more concrete, think of the single perishable good as apples. 1. A ONE-PERIOD MODEL 3 Formally, we assume the utility function is strictly increasing in each argument and strictly concave. This feature is captured as: uc (c, l) , ul (c, l) > 0 with ucc (c, l) , ull (c, l) < 0 such that ucc (c, l) ull (c, l) − [ucl (c, l)]2 > 0.2 To ensure that we obtain an interior solution, we further assume that Inada conditions hold; specifically, limc→0 uc (c, l) = ∞ and limc→∞ uc (c, l) = 0. Likewise, for leisure, we have liml→0 ul (c, l) = ∞ and liml→1 ul (c, l) = 0. Because each consumer is identical, we can solve the problem for a representative consumer. Formally, the problem is represented as: (PC) max u (c, l) c,l c ≤ w (1 − l) + rks 0 ≤ ks ≤ k0 N 0≤l≤1 c≥0 where k s is the quantity of capital rented to a firm, w is the wage rate and r is the rental rate paid per unit of capital. Note that w and r are both measured in units of the consumption good.3 In other words, consumption is picked as the numeraire so that its price is set to one. The prices of other goods, capital and labor, for instance, are measured relative the price of the numeraire good. For a constrained optimization problem, we apply the Kuhn-Tucker Theorem. The Lagrangean is 2Here, the notation is u (c, l) = du for i = c, l and u (c, l) = d2 u for i, j = c, l. i ij di didj 3More concretely, trade for one unit of labor will cost w units of the consumption good. 4 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM (1.1) ¶ µ k0 = u (c, l) + λ w + r − wl − c N where λ is the Lagrange multiplier. Note that we have taken some shortcuts. If we applied the Kuhn-Tucker Theorem literally, there would be a multiplier for each constraint; that is, there should be four constraints. The inequality constraint on capital is solved by the following argument. Since capital is an endowment, as long as r > 0, the consumer would rent thier entire endowment because idle capital means less income and therefore, less consumption. The Inada conditions ensure that the conditions on leisure and consumption will hold as strict inequalities. It is easy to show that the budget constraint will hold as a strict equality. The intuition is straightforward. If consumption is less than income, it means that consumers are leaving goods on the table; in other words, units of the consumption good received as factor payments are not consumed. Free disposal is, therefore, an option. Because the marginal utility of consumption is positive for any finite level of consumption, the shadow price of consumption, λ, will be positive. In other words, the consumer will always prefer to eat any units of consumption good provided as income to the alternative.4 The complementary slack condition implies that the budget 4The first-order conditions for the general structure are given by: ∂ = uc (c, l) − λ = 0 ∂c ∂ = ul (c, l) − λw = 0 ∂l ¸ k0 −c =0 λ w (1 − l) + r N ∙ With uc > 0, then λ > 0, which further implies that w (1 − l) + r kN0 − c = 0. 1. A ONE-PERIOD MODEL 5 constraint holds as a strict equality. Formally, c = w + r kN0 − wl. If we substitute for consumption, the problem can be rewritten as an unconstrained optimization problem; that is, ¸ ∙ k0 max u w + r − wl, l l N At the maximum, the following condition is satisfied: (1.2) ¶ ¶ µ µ k0 k0 −w uc w + r − wl, l + ul w + r − wl, l = 0 N N 1.2. Firms. Firms can be thought of as being endowed with a production technology. In other words, the firm is the only entity that knows how to combine labor and capital to produce units of the consumption good. Firms then pay the factors of production. The technology used to combine labor and capital to produce the consumption good is captured by the production function. Let the quan- tity of the consumption good produced by firms be denoted by y. Then y = zf (k, n), where k is the quantity of capital rented by firms and n is the quantity of labor time employed by firms. Here, z > 0 captures total factor productivity. The production function yields more units of the consumption good as more inputs are added to the process. Formally, fk (k, n) , fn (k, n) > 0 and fkk (k, n) , fnn (k, n) < 0. To ensure that both inputs are used, we assume f (0, 0) = f (0, n) = f (k, 0) = 0. Some positive quantity of both inputs are necessary to obtain any output. Lastly, we assume the production technology exhibits constant returns to scale; formally, for any ϕ > 0, zf (ϕk, ϕn) = ϕy. There are M firms in the economy. The constant returns to scale assumption greatly simplifies the analysis. To see this, consider the expression that defines a constant returns to scale function; that is, zf (ϕk, ϕn) = ϕy. Next, differentiate this expression with respect to ϕ, obtaining 6 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM (1.3) y = zfk (ϕk, ϕn) k + zfn (ϕk, ϕn) n. We evaluate (1.3) at ϕ = 1, resulting in y = zfk (k, n) k + zfn (k, n) n which implies that zf (k, n) = zfk (k, n) k + zfn (k, n) n. To proceed, we need the conditions under which a profit-maximizing firm will operate. The consumption good is used as the numeraire so that its price is set equal to one. Thus, proifts are expressed as (1.4) max zf (k, n) − rk − wn k,n where r is the rental rate on capital and w is the wage rate. Both the rental rate and wage are measured in units of the consumption good. Each firm takes the rental rate and wage rate as given. Profit maximum is identified by differentiating the profit function with respect to k and n and setting the derviatives equal to zero. (1.5) zfk (k, n) − r = 0 (1.6) zfn (k, n) − w = 0 It follows from (1.5) and (1.6) that zfk (k, n) k + zfn (k, n) n = rk + wn. In a competitive environment, no one firm will earn positive profits. If profits were positive, production could expand until zero profits are realized. Or, zf (k, n) − rk − wn = 0, which implies that zf (k, n) − zfk (k, n) k − zfn (k, n) n = 0. Let n = ϕn∗ and k = ϕk ∗ for any ϕ. Insofar as ϕ represents the scale of the representative firm, and because the scale is indeterminate. Thus, without loss of generality M = 1. A representative firm is sufficient to characterize the firm’s behavior in our model economy. 2. COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM 7 2. Competitive equilibrium We define a competitive equilibrium as an allocation, {c, l, n, k}, and prices, {w, r}, such that (i) consumers choose the quantity of the consumption good and leisure to maximize 1.1, taking wages and rental rates as given; (ii) firms choose the quantity of labor and capital to employ to maximize 1.4, taking wages and rental rates as given; (iii) markets clear: formally, k0 = k, y = Nc, N (1 − l) = n; The necessary and sufficient condition for the consumers maximization problem are provided by equation (1.2). The necessary and sufficient condition for the firm’s maximization problem is given by equations (1.5) and (1.6). Combined with the market clearing conditions, we have six equations and six unknowns. We next illustrate how one would solve for the equilibrium values. Because the consumer is a representative consumer, we can assume that N = 1 without loss of generality. Thus, 1 − l = n. We substitute for wages and the rental rate, applying market clearing conditions for the capital stock and for employment, obtaining (2.1) −zfn (k0 , 1 − l) uc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] + ul [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] = 0 Note that we have rearranged the expression so that there is one unknown. For strictly concave utility, there is one value of leisure that satisifes equation (2.1), which is denoted as l∗ . Plug l∗ into equation (1.5) to obtain the equilibrium value of the rental rate; that is, zfk (k0 , 1 − l∗ ) = r∗ . Similarly, the equilibrium wage rate is determined by the equation zfn (k0 , 1 − l∗ ) = w∗ . The equilibrium quantity of labor is determined in the market clearing condition for labor; that is, 1 − l∗ = n∗ and the equilibrium quantity of capital is determined by the endowment of capital; k = k0 . 8 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM Finally, the equilibrium quantity of consumption determined by the consumer’s budget constraint; that is, w∗ (1 − l∗ ) + r∗ kN0 = c∗ . The intuition is familiar. Consumers choose the quantity of labor to supply and firms choose the quantity of labor to employ and the wage rate is determined so that these quantities are equal. Likewise, the quantity of capital rented by firms is equal to the quantity of capital supplied by consumers and the rental rate ensures that these two quantities are equal. Consumers demand the consumption good and supply labor and capital, firms demand labor and capital and supply the consumption good, and prices adjust so that the quantites demanded equal the quantities supplied. Note that there are three market clearing conditions. Only two of these equations are linearly independent. To show this, we multiply the price of each good by the excess demand for each item. Formally, (c − y) + w [n − (1 − l)] + r (k − k0 ) Because the consumer’s budget constraint holds with equality—c = w (1 − l)+ rk0 —and because the firm has zero profits—zf (k, n) = y = rk + wn, we combine the two, implying that (2.2) (c − y) + w [n − (1 − l)] + r (k − k0 ) = 0. This expression is Walras’ Law. In words, the sum of excess demands in an economy are always equal to zero.5 Thus, w [n − (1 − l)] + r (k − k0 ) = − (c − y). The most important implication of this result is that there exists an interdependence among the excess-demand equations. More concretely, if we know that there is excess demand in the markets for the consumption good and the market for labor services (that is, c > y and n > (1 − l)), equation (2.2) implies that there must be an excess supply in the market 5To make this point explicit, c − w (1 − l) − rk = y − rk − wn. After subtracting 0 the terms on the right-hand-side of the equation from both sides of the expression and rearranging, we have (c − y) + w [n − (1 − l)] + r (k − k0 ) = 0. 3. PARETO OPTIMUM 9 for capital. Or, if the markets for consumption goods and capital clear— c = y and n = (1 − l)— it follows that k = k0 . We use this interdependence to ignore one equation in our model economy. Only two of the excess demands are independent. At the point at which we have six equations and six unknowns, the linear dependence implies that we drop one market clearing condition. For example, if drop c = y − w [n − (1 − l)] , we have five equations and five unknowns. 3. Pareto optimum We begin with the definition of an allocation as a production plan and a distribution of goods. An allocation is Pareto optimum if there exists no other allocation which is strictly preferred by some agents but does not make any other agent worse off. To illustrate this point, consider a fictious social planner that can costly acquire all the production and factors of production. In our simple static economy, the social planner then chooses the quantity of capital and labor that each agent will supply to the production process and the distribution of consumption good received by each agent. Since all our agents are identical, the social planner’s problem reduces to solving the problem for one representative agent. Formally, max u (c, l) c,l (SP) c = zf (k0 , 1 − l) Thus, the social planner is benevolent in the sense that the objective is to maximize the welfare of the representative agent subject to the boundary of the feasible set. One can think of the feasible set as being the budget constraint faced by the omniscient, benevolent social planner. We assume the social planner can freely dispose, but since the marginal utility 10 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM of the consumption good is positive, the planner will exhaust any production that is available. In other words, we are concentrating on cases that lie on the frontier of the production possibilities curve. The upshot is that we can substitute for consumption in the planner’s problem, rewriting it as maxl u [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l]. The necessary condition for solving this unconstrained maximization problem is (3.1) −uc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] ∗ [zfn (k0 , 1 − l)] + ul [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] = 0 Upon rearranging, we obtain (3.2) zfn (k0 , 1 − l) = ul [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] . uc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] Note that the left-hand-side of equation (3.2) is the marginal rate of social transformation and the right-hand-side is the marginal rate of substitution. In other words, the left-hand side is the rate at which foregone leisure—labor—is transformed into units of the consumption good by the social planner while the right-hand side is rate at which consumers marginally value leisure relative to their marginal value of the consumption good. In short, this is the condition that satisifes Pareto efficiency. The solution for the social planner’s problem is straightforward. Note that (3.2) is one equation in unknown so that the solution for the leisure allocation is obtained. With strictly concave utility and production, there is one, unique solution to this expression. If we denote the solution as lSP , ¡ ¢ then labor is represented by nSP = 1 − lSP . Lastly, cSP = zf k0 , 1 − lSP . The condition for Pareto efficiency is identical the condition in equation (2.1). Since the latter was derived in our efforts to derive the competitive equilibrium and the former was the solution to the social planner’s problem. With the planner’s allocation being Pareto optimal, this equivalence suggests a general result: namely: (i) A competitive equilirium in which 4. COMPARATIVE STATICS 11 there are no externalities, markets are complete and there are no distorting taxes is Pareto optimal; and (ii) Any Pareto optimum can be supported as a competitive equilibrium with an appropriate choice of endowments. Condition (i) is the First Welfare Theorem and Condition (ii) is the Second Welfare Theorem. A connection between the two Welfare Theorems and the Kuhn-Tucker Theorem is presented in the Apprendix. 4. Comparative statics In this section, our aim is to find how changes in the exogenous variables affect the equilibrium prices and quantities. To assess the effect on quantities, it is convenient to use the allocation determined by the social planner and rely on the Second Welfare Theorem is to ensure the effects we find from the solution to the social planner’s problem will be the same as the solution in the competitive equilibrium allocation. We begin by looking at the effect of change in technology on lesiure. We obtain this by totally differentiating (3.1), setting dk0 = 0, yielding −uc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] ∗ fn (k0 , 1 − l) dz − zfn (k0 , 1 − l) ∗ f (k0 , 1 − l) ∗ ucc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] dz +f (k0 , 1 − l) ∗ ulc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] dz + zfnn (k0 , 1 − l) ∗ uc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] dl +ucc [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] ∗ [zfn (k0 , 1 − l)]2 dl −zfn (k0 , 1 − l) ucl ∗ [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] dl − zfn (k0 , 1 − l) ucl [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] dl + ull [zf (k0 , 1 − l) , l] dl = 0 After rearranging, we get, uc fn + zfn f ucc − fucl dl = dz zfnn uc + (zfn )2 ucc − 2zfn ucl + ull The denominator is negative because we assume that the utility function is strictly concave. We assume that consumption and leisure are normal 12 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM goods. With uc , ucl > 0, ull < 0, however, the sign of the numerator is indeterminate. 4.1. On income and substitution effects. The Slutzky equation tells us that we can decompose the total effect that a change in total factor productivity has on leisure into two components: the income effect and the substitution effect. The decomposition rests on the ability to assess the impact of the parameter, holding utility constant. To illustrate this point, start with the following expression: (4.1) u (c, l) = h combined with the equation (3.1), we can proceed with deriving the substitution effect. Totally differentiate (4.1) and (3.1), setting dh = 0. From (3.1), one obtains the following expression (note that terms inside parethenses are omitted) −fn uc dz − zfn ucc dc − zfn ucl dl + ucl dc + ull dl = 0 Note that uc dc + ul dl = 0 is what holds utility constant in this exercise. For constant utility, we substitute, using dc =- uucl dl, to obtain fn uc dz = zfn ucc uucl dl−zfn ucl dz −ucl uucl dl +ull dl. Since this expression is conditioned on welfare held constant, we adopt the notation dl dz |subst to distinguish be- tween the substitution effect and the total effect. Next, we use the fact that -zfn uc + ul = 0, which implies that zfn = − uucl , which yields the following expression (4.2) dl fn uc |subst = < 0. 2 dz zfnn uc + (zfn ) ucc − 2zfn ucl + ull dl dl dl dz = dz |subst + dz |inc (the zfn f ucc −f ucl > 0. zfnn uc +(zfn )2 ucc −2zfn ucl +ull It is clear that the numerator is positive. By, dl dz |inc = dl for dz <0 Slutzky equation), we know that Therefore, a sufficient condition (an increase in total factor pro- ductivity will result in a decline in equilibrium quantity of lesiure) if the 4. COMPARATIVE STATICS 13 substitution effect is larger in absolute value (dominates) the income effect. Conversely, dl dz > 0 if the income effect dominates the substitution effect. With n = 1 − l, it follows that dn dz dl = − dz . The change in the equilibrium quantity of labor depends on whether the income or the substitution effect dominates. If the substitution effect dominates, labor increases, for instance, when total factor productivity increases. The other equilibrium quantity is consumption and the budget constraint is c = zf (k0 , n). Totally differentiating the budget constraint results in dc = fdz + zfn dn ⇒ dc dz = f + zfn dn dz . From this expression, we can tell that equilibrium consumption increases, for instance, if the substitution effect dominates. To illustrate the underlying economic intuition, consider a case in which total factor productivity increases. Such a positive, unexpected increase in total factor productivity results in greater income and change in the marginal product—the relative return—the leisure. Because of higher income, the consumer will elect to enjoy more leisure. However, the relative return to work induces the consumer to enjoy less leisure. The latter is the substitution effect. So, if the substitution effect dominates, lesiure will decline with an increase in total factor productivity. To see the effect on equilibrium prices, we begin with the impact on wages. By the firms’ first-order condition, w = zfn . Totally differentiating the expression for wages, yields dw = fn dz +zfnn dn ⇒ dw dz = fn +zfnn dn dz . If the substitition effect dominates, the second term is negative. In words, an increase in total factor productivity, for example, will result in two countervailing forces. The first term captures the direct effect on wages, reflecting the gain in marginal productivity. The second term captures the impact on the quantity of labor; if labor increases, it reduces the wage owing to diminsihing marginal product of labor. 14 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM 5. Government In this section, we extend the model economy to consider a role for fiscal policy. The modification involves a government that collects goods from consumers by a lump-sum tax. These units of the consumption good are transformed into a government good at a one-for-one rate. We assume that the government goods provide some utility to the representative consumer. We further assume that any such utility is separable in the sense that the marginal utility of leisure and the consumption good is independent of the quantity of government goods that are consumed. The level of lump-sum taxes are set exogenously and consequently, the level of government goods is exogenously determined. The upshot is that any utility derived from the government good is akin to a constant level added to the consumer’s welfare level. Formally, u (c, l) + ϕ (g) s.t. c = w (1 − l) − τ where τ denotes the quantity of goods collected in the form of lump-sum taxes. The government budget constraint is represented by the expression, g = τ. We proceed along the same lines as we did in the economy without government. Specifically, substitute for consumption and solve the following unconstrained maximization problem: max u [w (1 − l) − τ , l] + ϕ (g) l The necessary condition for the maximum is −wuc [w (1 − l) − τ , l] + ul [w (1 − l) − τ , l] = 0 5. GOVERNMENT 15 which is one equation in unknown. Meanwhile, for simplicity we consider an economy in which the representative firm has a production technology that is linear in labor and that capital is excluded from the production process. Let y = zn. Thus, the firm will maximize max zn − wn n where z = w.6 A competitive equilibrium is defined as an allocation {c, l, n, τ } and a price {w} which satisfies the following conditions: (i) the representative consumer chooses c and l to maximize utility, taking w and τ as given; (ii) the representative firm chooses n to maximize profits, taking w as given; (iii) markets for the consumption good and labor clear; (iiia) the government budget constraint is satisfied. In the absence of any externality, the Second Welfare theorem will hold, implying that we can employ the solution to the planner’s problem to determine the quantities. Formally, u (c, l) s.t. c + g = z (1 − l) where the constraint is intrepreted as the economy’s resource cosntraint. After substitution, the first-order condition for the planner’s maximization 6This condition ensures that the firm will satisfy the zero-profit condition. If z > w, the firm would maximize profits by employing the full amount of labor. If z < w, the shutdown condition applies. 16 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM problem is (5.1a) −zuc [z (1 − l) − g, l] + ul [z (1 − l) − g, l] = 0 Following the methods we employed above, the unique solution to this problem with yield l∗ , which is then plugged into the time constraint to obtain n∗ = 1 − l∗ and into the representative agent’s budget constraint and taking g as given to obtain c∗ = z (1 − l∗ ) − g. Consider the effect that a change in government purchases will have on the equilibrium values. Totally differentiating (5.1a) yields zucc dg − ucl dg + z 2 ucc dl − 2zucl dl + ull dl = 0 After rearranging, we get −zucc + ucl dl = 2 dg z ucc − 2zucl + ull (5.2) If leisure is a normal good, the denominator is negative and the numerator is positive, implying that dl dg < 0. In words, the equilibrium quantity of leisure will decrease, for instance, in response to an exogenous increase in government purchases. The intuition is straightforward. In this case, we have a simple income effect. In order to finance larger government purchases, there must be higher taxes. With higher taxes, the representative consumer sees a reduction in after-tax resources. The income contraction results in less leisure demanded by the representative consumer. The effect on equilibrium consumption is determined by totally differentiating the resource constraint. Thus, dc = −z dl − dg ⇒ Upon substituting for dl dg dc dg = −z dl dg − 1. and rearranging terms, we get zucl − ull dc = 2 <0 dg z ucc − 2zucl + ull so that the increase in government purchases, for instance, crowds out purchases of private consumption. Lastly, we study the effect on equilibrium 5. GOVERNMENT output. With y = z (1 − l), the total derivative is for dl dg , 17 dy dg = −z dl dg . Substitute expand terms and rearrange, leaving dy z 2 ucc − zucl = 2 . dg z ucc − 2zucl + ull Note that 0 < dy dg < 1 since the numerator is smaller (and the same sign) as the denominator. The interpretation is for a balanced-budget multiplier. If we think of government purchases as contributing to the demand side of the resource constraint, then we are simply asking how an exogenous increase in demand affects the equilibrium quantity of output. In this simple economy, we find that the income effect induces some additional work effort in equilibrium, but not enough to result in a one-for-one (or more) increase in output. Overall, the increase in government purchases increases output. However, the overall impact on output is that private consumers have a smaller share while the government has a larger share. Even though prices— read wages—are flexible, they do not respond to a change in government purchases. So the driving force in this simple economy is the reduction in private wealth that accompanies an increase in government purchases. While consumers are willing to work a little harder to offset the deleterious wealth effect, it is not enough to raise output so that both private and public spending can increase. Overall, this exercise points to a significant difference between the static general equilibrium model and the textbook IS-LM model. In particular, when general equilibrium effects are properly accounted for, welfaremaximizing consumers will respond to incentives associated with government policies in a way that renders the policies less attractive than in the sense that IS-LM models typically deliver a balanced-budget multiplier that is greater than one. 18 1. A STATIC DECISION PROBLEM 6. Problems (1) Consider the following representative agent model. The representtive consumer has preferences given by u (c, l) = c + βl where c is consumption, l is leisure, and β > 0. The consumer has an endowment of one unit of time and k0 units of capital. The representative firm has a technology for producing consumption goods, given by y = zk α n1−α where y is output, z is total factor productivity, k is the capital input, n is the labor input, and 0 < α < 1. The market real wage is w and r denotes the rental rate on capital. a. : solve for all prices and quantities in a competitive equilibrium (there are two cases to consider). b.: determine the effects that a change in z would have consumption, output, employment, the real wage, and the rental rate on capital. Explain your results. 2. Consider an economy with a continuum of consumers, and normalize the total mass of consumers to one. Each consumer has preferences given by U (c, l, c̄) = u (c, l) + v (c̄) where c and l are the individual’s consumption and leisure, respectively, and c̄ is the average consumption across the population (note that, because any individual is very small relative to the population, each consumer will treat c̄ as given). Assume that u (c, l) has standard properties and that v (c̄) is strictly increasing, strictly concave, and twice differentiable. There is an 6. PROBLEMS 19 externality in consumption in that any individual is better off when others consume more. The production technology is given by y=n where y is output and n is the labor input. a.: Determine the Pareto optimum (confine attention to allocations where all consumers consume the same quantities). b.: Determine the competitive equilibrium, and show that is not Pareto optimal. c.: Now suppose that the government subsidizes each individual’s consumption. that is, for each unit he or she consumes, a consumers receives s units of consumption from the government. the government finances subsidies to consumers by imposing a lumpsum tax τ on each consumer. Show that, if the government sets the subsidiy appropriately, then the competitive equilibirum is Pareto optimal. Determine the optimal subsidy, and explain your results. CHAPTER 2 Intertemporal models The purpose of this chapter is two fold. First, we extend the basic static model to include decisions that explicitly take decisions across time into account. Second, we develop a model that distinguishes between complete and incomplete markets. In doing so, we can see how incomplete markets invalidates the Second Welfare Theorem. 1. Consumers The consumer’s problem changes in one important aspect. In this model economy, the consumer is infinitely lived. We continue with the assumption that all consumers are identical. Their preferences also depend on the quantity of the consumption good and quantity of leisure in a specific time period. Time is indexed by t = 0, 1, 2, ... We further assume that the utility function is separable across time periods. We formalize the consumer’s lifetime preferences as U= ∞ X β t u (ct , lt ) t=0 where xt denotes the quantity of the good consumer’s enjoy at date t, for x = c, l. Note that there are now an infinite quantity of goods the consumer can enjoy over this infinite horizon. To ensure that the problem is well defined, we need a construct that will guarantee that the infinite sum of utilities is not infinity. It is difficult to choose a utility maximum when the value of utility is infinity. Here, we introduce the notion of discounting. More specifically, 0 < β < 1, is included in the consumer’s problem for a technical reason and it has an intuitive appeal. Technically, discounting is 21 22 2. INTERTEMPORAL MODELS a means to ensure that lifetime utility is finite. The intuitive appeal is that the future requires patience. Suppose c0 = c1 and l0 = l1 . With discounting, we are saying that future quantities do not yield as much date-0 utility as current quantities do, holding everything else constant. The time that one has to wait to enjoy the future quantities is captured by the discount factor, β. At each date t, the consumer faces a budget constraint represented as (1.1) ct = wt (1 − lt ) − τ t − st+1 + (1 + rt ) st f or t = 0, 1, 2, ... where all terms have the same meaning as in the static model. Note that we have introduced s to stand for the stock of government bonds that consumers possess. To be more concrete, think of this as consisting of the quantity of the perishable good that traded to the government. At date t, st+1 denotes the the quantity of the consumption good traded for one-period bonds, i.e., bonds that mature in one period. Here, st stands for the quantity of bonds that mature this period. We assume that bonds acquired at date t − 1 (that is, st ) will yield 1 + rt units of the consumption good at date t. Hence, the last term on the right-hand-side (hereafter, rhs) of equation (1.1), combined with wage income (the first term on the rhs) represents the resources available for consumption at date t after taxes and newly acquired government bonds are subtracted. For now, we will assume the production technology employs only labor. For simplicity, let the technology be a linear function of the quantity of labor employed. Formally, yt = zt nt . The government faces a budget constraint. We permit the government to issue one-period bonds. At any date, the quantity of government bonds can be either positive or negative. In each period, the government’s budget constraint is represented as 1. CONSUMERS (1.2) gt + (1 + rt ) bt = τ t + bt+1 23 f or t = 0, 1, 2, ... where bonds issued at date t − 1 mature, paying 1 + rt units of the consumption good at date t. Here, bt+1 stands the quantity of bonds issued by the government at date t. The government budget constraint says that at each date, the amount of resources spent by the government must be collected by the government in the form of taxes or bonds issued. Bonds and storage are perfect substitutes in this environment as indicated by the fact that both offer the same gross rate of return, 1+rt . For initial conditions in the bond market, assume that b0 = 0. There is a looming problem associated with a government that can borrow. Namely, infinitely far out into the future, the government can neither a borrower nor a lender be. So that the government cannot run a pyramid scheme by paying off current consumers by borrowing from future versions of the same consumers, we impose a no Ponzi condition: that is, limT →∞ bT −1 ΠT i=1 (1+ri ) = 0. One can crudely translate this condition as saying that as the economy approaches a limit that is infinitely far into the future, the present value of outstanding government bonds will be equal to zero. The counterpart for consumers is that the present value of government bonds, as one looks out infinitely far into the future, will also equal zero because of the no-Ponzi condition. Formally, limT →∞ sT −1 ΠT i=1 (1+ri ) = 0. For the consumer, the intuition is borrowed from finite horizon problems. The idea is essentially as follows: if the economy ends at date T , a consumer would have no incentive to store goods at date T . Rather, the consumer would gain utility from eating the consumption good since the marginal utility of the consumption is positive for any finite quantity of the good. With the no-Ponzi condition, it is possible to restate the sequence of budget constraint into a single budget constraint. To do so, note that s1 = c1 +s2 1+r1 − w1 (1−l1 )−τ 1 . 1+r1 Repeat this process for s2 = c2 +s3 (1+r1 )(1+r2 ) − w2 (1−l2 )−τ 2 (1+r1 )(1+r2 ) 24 2. INTERTEMPORAL MODELS and so on. Because the limiting condition stipulates that the present value of saving will equal zero, we can substitute for government bonds in the consumer’s budget constraint, rewriting as (1.3) c0 + ∞ X t=1 ∞ X ct wt (1 − lt ) − τ t = w (1 − l ) − τ + 0 0 0 t Πi=1 (1 + ri ) Πti=1 (1 + ri ) t=1 where the consumer’s budget constraint says that the present value of goods consumed equals the present value of after-tax resources paid to the consumer. This representation of the budget constraint establishes a subtle form of equivalence; that is, there is no difference between the sequence of budget constraints corresponding a markets meeting at each date t and the charaxterization of an economy in which all markets meet at the beginning of time and all goods—present and future—are traded at that Arrow-Debreu spot market. I am not suggesting that these perishable goods are literally traded at date t = 0. Rather, it is equivalent to think of the date-0 market as trading claims against future work and consumption goods. The first-order conditions for the consumer’s constrained optimization problem is represented as λ (1.4) β t uc (t) − Πti=1 (1 (1.5) β t ul (t) − λwt t Πi=1 (1 + ri ) + ri ) =0 for t = 1, 2, 3, ... =0 f or t = 1, 2, 3, ... (1.6) uc (0) − λ = 0 (1.7) ul (0) − λw0 = 0 3. COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM 25 where I adopt the notation that ui (ct , lt ) = ui (t) for i = c, l. Equations (1.4) and (1.6) say that the discounted marginal utility of consumption is equal to the present value of the shadow price in the date-0 spot market. Similarly, equations (1.5) and (1.7) say that the discounted marginal utility of leisure is equal to the present value of the shadow wage. In all cases, there is a price for all goods in this economy; the spot price that the consumer faces depends on the product of the gross real interest rates. We can rerrange the first-order conditions to obtain: ul (t) = wt uc (t) and 1 βuc (t + 1) = uc (t) 1 + rt+1 2. Firm The representative firm maximizes profits at each date t, where profits are represented as max (zt − wt ) nt nt where nt denotes labor demand. Note that labor demand is perfectly elastic at zt = wt . 3. Competitive equilibrium A competitive equilibrium consists of quantities, {ct , lt , nt , st+1 , bt+1 , τ t }∞ t=0 and prices, {wt , rt+1 }∞ t=0 that satisfy the following: (1) consumers choose {ct , lt , st+1 }∞ t=0 taht maximize lifetime utility, ∞ taking {τ t }∞ t=0 and {wt , rt+1 }t=0 as given; ∞ (2) firms choose {nt }∞ t=0 to maximzie profits, taking {wt }t=0 as given; ∞ (3) given {gt }∞ t=0 , {bt+1 , τ t }t=0 satisfy the sequence of government bud- get constraints; 26 2. INTERTEMPORAL MODELS (4) markets for the consumption good, for labor, and for government bonds clear. By Walras’ Law we can eliminate one market. We choose the market for the consumption good, leaving us with st+1 = bt+1 f or t = 0, 1, 2, ... 1 − lt = nt f or t = 0, 1, 2, ... and So the basic intertemporal model can be written in either of two equivalent ways. The first way is to solve it as a sequence of markets each meeting at a different point of time. Alternatively, each date market is a date good; there is an infinite variety of goods available at one date. The trade can occur in a spot market just as Arrow and Debreu and MacKenzie developed the model. The implication is that there is a complete set of ArrowDebreu markets for an infinite dimensional variety of goods. Moreover, we have prices for these different goods; a date-t consumption good sells for 1 Πti=1 (1+ri ) date-0 goods. Similarly, date-t labor sells for wt Πti=1 (1+ri ) units of the date-0 consumption good. It is possible to construct an intertemporal government budget constraint. Follow the same methodology that we did to constuct the consumer’s intertemporal budget constraint; that is, solve for bt+1 and repeatedly substitute. With b0 = 0, we get (3.1) g0 + ∞ X t=1 ∞ X gt τt = τ + 0 t t Πi=1 (1 + ri ) Πi=1 (1 + ri ) t=1 The present value of government purchases is exactly equal to the present value of taxes. Now suppose that the sequence of wages and rental rates are those obtained in a competitive equilibrium.Those equilibrium prices are invariant 3. COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM 27 to any sequence of taxes that satisfies (3.1). In other words, taxes can rise today and fall in the future, or vice versa and the equilibrium prices will be the same. It further follows that consumer’s allocation and firm’s allocation are also invariant to the timing of taxes. To illustrate the consumer’s invariance, substitute the government budget constraint into the consumer’s intertemporal budget constraint, yielding (3.2) c0 + ∞ X t=1 ∞ X ct wt (1 − lt ) − gt = w . (1 − l ) − g + 0 0 0 t Πti=1 (1 + ri ) Π (1 + r ) i i=1 t=1 Equation (3.2) indicates that the timing of taxes does not matter since taxes do not enter into the expression. This invariance is known as Ricardian Equivalence. For a given present value of government purchases and taxes, the timing of the government’s actions do not affect the equilibrium allocations. Ricardo mentioned to something like this in his analysis. An increase in government spending today is offset by an increase in future taxes. If the present value of government purchases is constant, this pattern has no impact on consumption, labor supply, wages, or interest rates. The key feature of this model is that there exist a complete set of markets on which consumers trade. These complete set of markets rest on the notion that taxes are nondistortionary, consumers are infinitely lived, private firms and consumers can borrow or lend at the send interest rate (capital markets are perfect), consumers and firms are identical in the sense that there is no distributional effects associated with the government actions. In the next chapter, we examine an economy in which consumers are not infinitely lived. The upshot is that some consumers cannot trade with future consumers, rendering markets incomplete. Thus, one initial result is that if markets are complete, the timing of consumption is invariant to movements in the nondistortionary taxes. The consumer has access to markets that permit consumption smoothing. More concretely, borrowing and lending markets are perfect so that in periods in 28 2. INTERTEMPORAL MODELS which disposable income is low, the consumer can borrow and repay the loan when disposable income is high. 4. Problems (1) Consider the following representative agent model. There is a representative consumer with preferences given by the utility function u (c, l), where c is the consumption good and l is leisure. Moreover, the utility function has the properties that we assumed in class. The representative consumer is endowed with one unit of time and k0 units of capital. Let the production technology be given by y = zf (k, n) where y is output, z is total factor productivity, k is the capital input, n is the labor input. Assume that f (k, n) has the properties we have assumed in class. Finally, the government purchases g units of the consumption and finances these purchases by imposing a lump-sum tax, denoted τ , on consumers. a.: Determine the equilibrium effects of a change in government purchases on consumption, employment, the real wage, and output. Assume that consumption and leisure are normal goods for the representative consumer. Explain your results. b.: Determine the equilibrium effects of a change in total factor productivity on consumption, employment, the real wage, and output. Show that your results depend on income and substitution effects and, where possible, determine the income and substitution effects. Explain your results 2. Consider a representative agent model where the representative consumer has preferences given by: E0 ∞ X t=0 β t [ln (ct ) + ln (lt )] 4. PROBLEMS 29 where 0 < β < 1 is the consumer’s subjective time rate of preference, ct is consumption, and lt is leisure. The consumer is endowed with one unit of time each period. The production technology is given by yt = zt ktα n1−α t where y is output, z is a technology shock, k is the capital input, and n is the labor input. We assume 0 < α < 1. The capital stock depreciates at a 100% rate each period. In period t, one unit of the consumption good can be transformed into one unit of capital and this capital becomes productive in date t + 1. Let zt+1 = ztρ ²t where ln ²t is an i.i.d. random variable with mean zero and 0 < ρ < 1. a.: Solve for the competitive equilibrium. b.: How does employment vary with the technology shock zt ? Is this model capable of explaining observed fluctuations in employment? Explain. c.: How does persistence in the technology shock (ρ > 0) affect consumption, investment, and output over time? Which of these properties do you think are special to this example? Explain. CHAPTER 3 Overlapping generations In this chapter, we develop an economic environment in which physical restrictions keep some markets from being available. The overlapping generations economy is an environemtn in which agents are born and die. The overlapping part comes from the fact that at any particular date, multiple generations coexist. For simplicity, we focus on an economy in which a consumer lives for two periods. Thus, two generations are alive at any one point in time. Here, market incompleteness owes to the physical inability for agents born at date t to be unable to enter into a market trade with consumers born at date t + 2 or later. More concretely, Abraham Lincoln cannot trade with Michael Jordan. At least in the model economy populated with infinitely-lived households, the decendents of Abraham Lincoln could trade with Michael Jordan. There is an infinite sequence of dates, indexed by t = 0, 1, 2, ... The physical environment initially focuses on the description of the factors of production. We assume that the initial aggregate stock of capital is K0 and the economy is endowed with this quantity. The population follows a simple path over time, growing geometrically. Let Lt denote the number of consumers born at date t growth, then Lt = L0 (1 + n)t , where L0 denotes the number of consumers at date t = 1 that live for only one period. We refer to this group as the initial old. Consumers born at date t ≥ 1 are endowed with one of productive time when young and nothing when old. Here, young refers to the first period of the consumers life and old refers to the second period of their life. Preferences are such that consumers want to eat in both periods of their 31 32 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS life. Formally, U (c1t , c2t+1 ) where c1t is the quantity of goods consumed when young and c2t+1 is the quantity of good consumed when old. Further, we assume that M RS1,2 = ∂U (.,.)/∂c1 ∂U (.,.)/∂c2 = ∞ as c1 → 0 and M RS1,2 = 0 as c1 → ∞. Note that since leisure is not valued, it is straightforward to show that consumers will work their entire endowment. The inelastic supply of labor can be thought of as a vertical labor supply curve. Aggregate production uses capital and labor to produce units of the consumption good. The technology exhibits constant returns to scale. Formally, we write production as Yt = F (Kt , Lt ). Note that capital consists of the aggregate quantity of goods accumulated as capital by date t − 1. There are several things about this environment that are worth noting. First, there is limited, indeed, no communication across generations that do not coexist. In other words, a consumer born at date t cannot write a debt contract that any future generation. The contracts cannot be written when young because future generations are not born and therefore cannot enter into contracts. Nor will the date t old accept an iou from the young because the old will be gone before they get repaid. From the perspective of issuing debt, such contracts cannot be issued when old because by the time the debt matures, usually one period later, the old person is gone from the market and there is no way for the curent young to get repaid. Second, note that all consumers have the same lifetime preferences. It will be convenient to start with the aggregate resource constraint. In this way, we can begin to analyze the planner’s problem. The resource constraint is (0.1) F (Kt , Lt ) + Kt = Kt+1 + Lt c1t + Lt−1 c2t . The left-hand-side of equation (0.1) represents the total value of resources that are available for this economy, while the right-hand-side talleys up the potential uses. In words, total output plus the value of the existing 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS 33 (undepreciated) capital stock is used for (gross) investment, consumption by those born at date t and consumption by those born at date t − 1. Since all consumers have identical preferences, we start with the supposition that a social planner seeks to maximize the lifetime welfare of the representative two-period life consumer. Therefore, it simplifies out analysis to convert the resource constraint into quantities that are specified in per-young-person terms. Divide (0.1) by Lt and using the fact that Lt = (1 + n) Lt−1 , we obtain (0.2) f (kt ) + kt = (1 + n) kt+1 + c1t + c2t 1+n We turn now to some definitions presented in welfare economics; namely, we are interested in Pareto optimality. © ª∞ ∗ Definition 1. An allocation, c∗1t , c∗2t , kt+1 is Pareto optimal if it o∞ nt=1 such that is feasible and there exists no other allocation ĉ1t , ĉ2t , k̂t+1 t=1 ¢ ¡ ĉ20 ≥ c∗20 and U (ĉ1t , ĉ2t+1 ) ≥ U c∗1t , c∗2t+1 for all t ≥ 1 with at least one inequality that is strict. With this definition of inequality, we focus on steady states. Specifically, c1t = c1t+1 = c1 , c2t = c2t+1 = c2 and kt = kt+1 = k for all t ≥ 1. After substituting for the steady state value in the resource constraint, the planner’s problem can be written as: max U (c1 , c2 ) c1 ,c2 ,k s.t. f (k) − nk = c1 + c2 . 1+n It is possible to further simplify the planner’s problem, substituting the steady-state representation of the resource constraint for c2 , obtaining the following unconstrained optimization problem: 34 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS (0.3) max U {c1 , (1 + n) [f (k) − nk − c1 ]} . c1 ,k The first-order necessary conditions for the optimum are: (0.4) U1 − (1 + n) U2 = 0 (0.5) f 0 (k) − n = 0 Equation (0.5) says that the marginal product of capital must equal the economy’s net propulation growth rate. Equation (0.4) says that the consumer is will substitute an infinitesmial amount of consumption when young provided the utility lost is offset by the marginal utility of the extra utility that can be gained by consuming when old. Because of the population growth, every unit of the consumption good that is foregone at date t will be transformed into 1 + n units of the date-t + 1 consumption good. It is useful to make two points in order to ease intrepretation later. First, the two first-order conditions for the planner’s problem can be rearranged, yielding (0.6) U1 = 1 + n = 1 + f 0 (k) U2 which says that the marginal rate of substitution for the two consumption goods—consumption when young and consumption when old is equal for all consumers. This condition is one of two necessary conditions for Pareto optimality. Equation (0.6) further states that the marginal rate of substitution is equal to the marginal rate of transformation. Second, the allocation that satisfies the first-order conditions is efficient in the sense that all resources are used in their most highly valued fashion, as consumption for young or old and for investment. There is free disposal in this economy, but 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS 35 consumers would never choose to dispose of goods when either consumption or investment is an option. It is straigtforward to solve the for the planner’s allocation. Because the production technology is strictly concave, equation (0.5) indicates that there will be f 0 (k sp ) = n exactly one value of k, denoted k sp , that satisfies this first-order condition. With the unique value ksp , we solve for the unique value of csp 1 that satisfies sp sp sp sp sp sp sp U1 {csp 1 , (1 + n) [f (k ) − nk − c1 ]}−(1 + n) U2 {c1 , (1 + n) [f (k ) − nk − c1 ]} = sp sp sp 0. It follows that csp 2 = (1 + n) [f (k ) − nk − c1 ]. Thus, we have the al- location for that solves the planner’s problem. 0.1. Competitive equilibrium. In this section, we consider a decentralized economy. Our aim is to determine whether the competitive equilibrium will yield the same allocation as the planner would choose. The consumer seeks to maximize lifetime utility. We assume that consumers supply saving, denoted st , when young. The consumer’s program is written as max c1t ,c2t+1 ,st U (c1t , c2t+1 ) (0.7) s.t. c1t = wt − st (0.8) c2t+1 = (1 + rt+1 ) st . Note that each unit saved at date t yields 1 + rt+1 goods at date t + 1. The consumer receives wages, wt units of the consumption good when young. In a competitive market, the consumer takes w and r as given.We substitute for consumption when young and consumption when old, rewriting the consumer’s program as an unconstrained maximization problem. Formally, 36 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS (0.9) max U [wt − st , (1 + rt+1 ) st ] st The first-order necessary condition for the consumer’s program is (0.10) −U1 [wt − st , (1 + rt+1 ) st ]+(1 + rt+1 ) U2 [wt − st , (1 + rt+1 ) st ] = 0. Thus, we have one equation in one unknown. We solve equation (0.10) for st as a function of wages and the real interest rate. Formally, st = s (wt , rt+1 ). Note that the marginal rate of substitution for the consumer is U1 (.) U2 (.) = 1 + rt+1 . The firm seeks to maximize profits. Profits are written as the difference between sales of output produced and expenses, with the latter consisting of wages and rental rates; formally F (Kt , Lt ) − wt Lt − rt Kt . With constant returns to scale, F (Kt , Lt ) = Lt f (kt ). We can rewrite the profit function, after dividing by Lt , as max f kt µ Kt Lt ¶ − wt − rt Kt Lt implying that profit maximization is given by the following two conditions: (0.11) f 0 (kt ) − rt = 0 (0.12) f (kt ) − f 0 (kt ) kt − wt = 0 Together, there are two first-order conditions. The first implies that the marginal product of the capital-labor ratio equals the rental rate on 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS 37 capital and the zero-profit condition implies that output minus the expense on capital equals the wage rate. With the ooptimizing conditions for the two market participants, we can specify the following definition. Definition 2. A competitive equilibrium is a sequence of quantities ∞ {kt+1 , st }∞ t=0 and prices {wt , rt }t=0 such that: (i) consumer chooses st to maximize utility; (ii) firm chooses kt to maximize profit; (iii) markets clear, given k0 . The market clearing conditions amount to ensuring that the supply of capital is equal to the demand for capital. In the aggregate, we can write Kt+1 = Lt s (wt , rt+1 ) which says that the total quantity of capital demanded is equal to the total volume of saving. Divide this expression in order to put this market clearing into per-young-person terms; that is, Kt+1 Lt+1 Lt+1 Lt = s (wt , rt+1 ). After rearranging, we have the following first-order nonlinear difference equation: (0.13) £ ¤ (1 + n) kt+1 = s f (kt ) − f 0 (kt ) kt , f 0 (kt+1 ) where we substitute for wages and rental rates from the first-order conditions for the firm’s maximization problem. Given k0 , it is possible for solve sequentially for the entire path of the capital-labor ratio. Once we have the path for the capital-labor ratio, we can solve for the sequence of wages and rental rates.1 With these prices, it is straightforward to solve for saving, for consumption when young and consumption when old.2 Indeed, 1Note that the first-order difference equation for capital is obtained by satisfying equilibrium conditions. Therefore, it is appropriate to refer to (0.13) as the equilibrium law of motion. 2With {k}∞ , wages are determined by f (k ) − f 0 (k ) k and the rental rate is det t t t=0 termined by f 0 (kt ). Plug these values into the saving function, st = s (wt , rt+1 ), implying that c1t = wt − s (wt , rt+1 ) and c2t+1 = (1 + rt+1 ) s (wt , rt+1 ). 38 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS the rental rate is determined by (0.11) and the wage rate by (0.12). With the rental rate and wage rate, we compute the level of saving from (0.13). Consumption when young and when old are determined by equations (0.7) and (0.8), respectively. Thus, the equilibrium values are obtained. Next, we turn to a comparison of the optimal allocations under the social planner’s and the decentralized market ones. One comparison is with respect to the first-order conditions depicting the trade-off between consumption when young and consumption when old. Recall that the social planner’s problem yielded U1 U2 = 1 + n; in contrast, the representative young person solves a problem in which U1 U2 = 1 + r. In the happy coincidence in which r = n, these conditions are identical and the First Welfare Theorem is satisfied. To show how a government can become involved to achieve the firstbest allocation—the one chosen by the social planner—consider a particular example of an overlapping generations economy in which r 6= n. Suppose preferences at log and the production function is Cobb-Douglas. Formally, the person born at date t ≥ 1, maximizes (0.14) max [ln (wt − st )] + β ln [(1 + rt+1 ) st ] st where β is a parameter that indicates the extent to which the consumer discounts future utility. We assume that 0 < β < 1. Solving this problem we find that (0.15) st = β wt . 1−β With production technology in intensive form given by γktα 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS 39 where γ > 0 denotes total factor productivity. This implies that rt = αγktα−1 and wt = (1 − α) γktα . The goods market clears when the demand for saving equals the supply: (0.16) (1 + n) kt+1 = β (1 − α) γktα . 1−β Focus on a steady state equilibrium, defined as kt+1 = kt = k∗ . Equation (0.16), reduces to (1 + n) k∗ = We solve for k∗ , obtaining (0.17) ∗ k = ∙µ β (1 − α) γ (k ∗ )α . 1−β β 1+β ¶µ γ (1 − α) 1+n ¶¸ 1 1−α By plugging in the value of k ∗ into the equilibrium expressions for the rental rate and the wage rate, we obtain ∙ (1 + β) (1 + n) r =α β (1 − α) ∗ and ∙ ¸ γβ (1 − α) w = (1 − α) (1 + β) (1 + n) ∗ ¸ α 1−α . Steady state consumption over the the representative consumer’s life is given by c∗1 = w∗ 1+β and c∗2 ∗ = (1 + r ) µ β 1+β ¶ w∗ . Our first comparison is between the rental rate and the population growth rate. In doing so, we are making a comparison between the allocations obtained in the decentralized economy and those obtained by the 40 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS social planner. With r∗ = α h (1+β)(1+n) β(1−α) i , it is only a happy coincidence that r∗ = n. In general, this condition will not hold. Let ksp denote the stationary value of the capital stock under the social planner’s program. ¡ ¢ 1 1−α . In words, the long-run For our setup, γα (ksp )α−1 = n, or ksp = γα n steady state value of the capital-labor ratio in the competitive equilibrium is not equal to the one chosen by the social planner. Thus, the results indicate that, in general, the competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal. Without picking parameter values, it is not possible to determine whether the capital-labor ratio in the competitive equilibrium is greater than or less than the social planner’s capital-labor ratio. With k ∗ 6= k sp , we identify a case of dynamic inefficiency. If the capital-labor ratio in the competitive equilibrium is greater than the socially optimal value, then consumption when young could be greater. If the capital-labor ratio in the competitive equilibrium is less than the socially optimal value, then consumption when old could be greater. The bottom line is that lifetime welfare of the two-period lived consumers is lower in the competitive equilibrium than in the social planner setting. The source of the dynamic inefficiency in the overlapping generations economy is market incompleteness. The inability of the current generations to trade with unborn generations results in the ”wrong” price for future goods in the overlapping generations economy. The price of old-age consumption, from the perspective of the young person, is 1/r. The rate at which society can trade one unit of consumption when young for one unit of consumption when old is 1/n. The price is not equal to the marginal rate of technical substitution. Based on this (inverse of the) rental rate, consumers will choose too little (too much) consumption when young when the rental rate is greater than (less than) the population growth rate. The wedge between these prices exists because of the restrictions on trades that is inherent to the overlapping generations model. 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS 41 The purpose of the next extension is to describe a mechanism that permits transfers between the young and the old. In a lump-sum form, these intergenerational transfers can eliminate the wedge between the marginal rate of technical substitution and the rental rate determined in the competitive equilibrium. As such, the mechanism designed originally by Diamond (1965), demonstrates a more general characteristic; there exists a mechanism that guarantees that restores the equality between the competitive equilibrium allocations and those determined by the social planner. 0.2. The Diamond economy. In this section, we include government debt as a means of executing intergenerational transfers. The government, who has a role in economies in which the First Welfare Theorem breaks down, will choose the size of the transfer so that the allocations in the competitive equilibrium is equal to those chosen by the social planner. Here, the government’s chief activities is to issue debt to young consumers, execute a transfer to young consumers, and then tax future young consumers to pay the interest and principal on this debt. In short, our aim is to demonstrate that a mechanism designed to execute intergenerational transfers can fix the dynamic inefficiency present in the baseline overlapping generations economy. Let Bt+1 denote the aggregate quantity of government debt issued at date t. The subscript reflects the maturity structure of our government debt; specifically, all government debt matures one period after issue. For each one unit of the consumption good traded for government debt at date t, the bearer of the debt will receive 1+rt=1 units of the consumption good at date t+1. Note that government debt and capital offer the same gross real return. The upshot is that government debt and capital are perfect substitutes. I further assume that the quantity of government debt is fixed in per capita terms; that is, Bt+1 = bLt , where b is the quantity of government debt per young consumer. 42 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS In this setup, suppose the government issues bonds and collects taxes in order to meets its principal and interest expenses. Taxes are lump-sum payments made by young consumers. Formally, the government budget constraint is Bt+1 + Tt = (1 + rt ) Bt where Tt = τ t Lt . To represent the government budget constraint in per-young-consumer terms, we divide by Lt to get b + τt = (0.18) 1 + rt b 1+n After collecting terms and rearranging to solve for the tax, we get (0.19) τt = µ rt − n 1+n ¶ b. The two-period lived consumer solves the following maximization problem max U [wt − st − τ t , (1 + rt+1 ) st ] st taking wages, the real interest rate and taxes as given. The first-order condition yields a saving function that is written as st = s (wt − τ t , rt+1 ). Thus, the market clearing condition in the asset market is (in per-youngperson terms): kt+1 (1 + n) + b = s (wt − τ t , rt+1 ), where the left hand side is interpreted as the supply of asset and the right hand side is the demand. Because government bonds and capital are perfect substitutes, we do not need to distinguish between the two on the demand side of the marketclearing expression. We can further substitute for equilibrium values of wages, the rental and lump-sum taxes, representing the market-clearing expression as ½ ∙ 0 ¾ ¸ f (kt ) − n (0.20) kt+1 (1 + n) + b = s f (kt ) − f 0 (kt ) kt − b, f 0 (kt+1 ) 1+n 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS 43 which represents the market-clearing condition as an equilibrium law of motion for the capital-labor ratio. Indeed, equation (0.20) is a nonlinear first-order difference equation in the capital-labor ratio. For our purposes, note that there exists a stationary, or steady state, value of the capital-labor ratio that satisfies k ∗ (b) = kt = kt+1 . Thus, (0.20) becomes (0.21) ¸ ½ ∙ 0 ∗ ¾ f [k (b)] − n ∗ 0 ∗ ∗ 0 ∗ k (b) (1 + n)+b = s f [k (b)] − f [k (b)] k (b) − b, f [k (b)] 1+n ∗ We return to the question that initiated this section; specifically, does there exists a value of the steady state capital stock such that the stationary allocation in the decentralized economy is identical to the planner’s allocation. More precisely, is there a value of k ∗ (b) such that f 0 [k ∗ (b)] = n? From the stationary representation of the equilibrium law of motion, (0.21) we know that ¸ ½ ∙ 0 ∗ ¾ f [k (b)] − n ∗ 0 ∗ ∗ 0 ∗ b, f [k (b)] b = −k (b) (1 + n)+s f [k (b)] − f [k (b)] k (b) − 1+n ∗ Note that b can be either positive or negative. A positive value would correspond to a case in which the government borrows from private citizens and a negative value would correspond to a government that loans resources to consumers. The function k∗ (b) is continuous in the bond-per-youngconsumer ratio. Thus, there exists a value of b such that f 0 [k ∗ (b)] = n. Two additional results follow in our decentralized economy. First, note ³ 0 ∗ ´ (b)]−n that τ t = f [k1+n b from equation (0.19). It follows immediately that lump-sum taxes will equal zero since the numerator of this expression vanishes. Second, there is an intergenerational transfer operating. By assumption, b is a constant that is interpreted as the quantity of bonds issued per young consumer. Thus, the aggregate quantity of bonds must grow at the same rate as the population grows. If b > 0, there is a transfer of goods 44 3. OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS from young consumers to old consumers. Remember that we do not know whether the decentralized economy chooses a capital-labor ratio that is too large or too small relative to the Pareto optimum; that is, k ∗ > kSP or k ∗ < kSP . If k ∗ > kSP , then young consumers are saving ”too much.” Corresondingly, the market rental rate is too low relative to the marginal rate of technical substitution. In order to reduce the capital-labor ratio, the government issues bonds that are purchased by young consumers. In practice, young consumers are giving up goods to the government that are then used to repay old bondholders. It is in this sense that there is an operational intergenerational transfer. The young consumer’s portfolio is thereby restructured so that the dynamic inefficiency is eliminated, yielding k∗ = kSP and the rental rate is equal to one plus the population growth rate. Conversely, if k∗ < kSP , the government sets b < 0. By lending to young consumers and receiving goods from old consumers, the government is executing a transfer between old consumers to young consumers. The notion of an intergenerational transfer that occurs when the government gives goods to young consumers, using the proceeds from principal and interest paid by old consumers. Thus, the Diamond model shows that there exists a market economy, augmented by government paper, that will eliminate the dynamic inefficiency. The dynamic inefficiency owes to the existence of the market incompleteness. The First Welfare Theorem ensures that we could have eliminated the dynamic inefficiency by a series of lump-sum taxes and transfers. Diamond shows that the dynamic inefficiency can be undone by issuing government paper. 1. Problems (1) Consider the Diamond economy. a. Verify that function k∗ (b) is a continuous function in the bond-peryoung-consumer ratio. 1. PROBLEMS 45 b. Derive the derviative of the function k ∗ (b) with respect to the bondper-young-consumer ratio. State sufficient conditions under which the derivative is increasing; that is, k ∗0 (b) > 0.
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