Monthly bulletin
Monthly bulletin
May 2017
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Incoming orders in Germany
Mechanical engineering
Volume index 2010 = 100
Domestic
Foreign
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
12-month moving average
Non-adjusted indices
Monthly bulletin
Source: VDMA
2009
Surge in growth in Europe
In March, incoming orders in the German
mechanical engineering sector were down
slightly (by four percent) from the previous
year. Though this may sound like a paradox, it
is a satisfying result. Domestic orders rose by
10 percent. Orders from the EU partner
countries even grew by an impressive 19
percent. The actual surprise comes from
incoming orders from non-euro countries. In
those countries, large industrial plants resulted
in an unusually high order volume in March
2016, which was missed by only 16 percent in
March 2017. For the first quarter, a real
increase of 1 percent in orders was recorded
despite the high basis of comparison.
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 2 | May 2017
Production of German mechanical engineering
Volume index 2010=100
12-months moving average
During the first two months of the year,
production was 2.6 percent higher, according
to preliminary calculations, than the previous
year. This means the year 2017 started out
successfully. After all, the forecast made by
VDMA economists in October 2016 for 2017
predicts a one-percent growth in production in
real terms. On the positive side is the good
business climate that prevails almost
everywhere in the world. However, there are
also several burdensome factors. Nonetheless,
VDMA stands by its forecast.
Non-adjusted indices
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Monthly bulletin
Source: Federal Stat. Office Germany, VDMA
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 3 | May 2017
Capacity utilization in
German mechanical engineering
In percent of full capacity level of output
95
50%-scatter band*
90
mean value: 85,9
85
80
75
At 85.6 percent, the capacity utilization in April
fell slightly short of the long-term industry
average. This means the utilization rate has
risen slightly since October 2016 after it had
stagnated at the bottom end of a still-tolerable
level since the end of 2012, with an exception
in the fall of 2014. This development is in line
with the production curve, since it also
displayed a moderate upward tendency since
the fall of last year. The absolute low in the
period since 2012 was recorded in July 2016
at 83.3 percent, the highest result was 88.0
percent in April 2012.
70
65
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*) 50% of all observations (since 1995) are located within a scatter band of 84,1 to 88,9 %.
Monthly bulletin
Source: ifo-Institut, VDMA
2010
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 4 | May 2017
Employees in German mechanical engineering
In thousand
In February the number of staff in the German
Mechanical Engingeering industry amounted to
1.007 million, which is 0.3 percent more than
the year before. Due to a large production
entity whose classification has been changed
to an industry group not part of mechanical
engineering, the employment figure has been
downsized by more than 9'000 employees in
2016. The revised figures for the year 2016 are
therefore no more comparable to former years.
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2017
*) Due to a change in classification 2016 not comparable to previous years
Employees in units with 50+ employees
Monthly bulletin
Source: Federal Stat. Office Germany, VDMA
2011
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 5 | May 2017
German machine export
Region (relevance*)
Changes to previous year in percent
Jan. - December 2016
Dez. 2016 - Februar 2017
Africa (3.1)
Central a. South Asia (2.8)
Australia-Oceania (1.1)
EU-28 (46.5)
South-East Asia (3.2)
Other Europe (10.3)
North America (11.4)
East Asia (13.6)
Ø Jan. - December 2016:
0.2% (real -0.5%)
Latin America (4.2)
Near and Middle East (3.5)
-15
-10
0
5
10
15
20
25
*) Share in total machinery export in percent.
Monthly bulletin
Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, VDMA
-5
German machinery exports exceeded the
previous year’s by a nominal 1.1 percent in
February 2017. The slightly more stable threemonth comparison from December to February
(compared to the same period the previous
year) shows a plus of 4.6 percent. With plus
3.8 percent, Europe (EU and otherwise)
developed at a similar pace, with only the
EURO zone (excluding France) moving more
quickly with plus 4.1 percent. Russia caught up
with 6.9 percent, while Turkey fell behind with
8.5 percent. Orders from China were up by 7.5
percent, as were those from the USA with 2.6
percent and Mexico with 8.2 percent. Orders
from Southeast Asia increased by 4.7 percent,
orders from Australia by 9 percent. In the
MENA region, Egypt and Iran accelerated
growth by high double-digit figures.
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 6 | May 2017
Incoming orders in Germany
for selected subsectors
Real changes in percent, January - March 2017/2016
Robotics and automation
Power transmission engineering
Constr. equipment and building material machines
Printing and paper technology
Process plant and equipment
Fluid power equipment
Materials handling technology
Plastics and rubber machinery
Valves and fittings
Machine tools
Precision tools
Air-handling technology
Food processing machinery and packaging machinery
Power Systems
-60
In the last three statistically verifiable months
(January – March 2017), 24 of the subsectors
(which are taken into account separately in the
VDMA incoming order statistics) experienced
an increase compared to the previous year.
Four subsectors recorded growth of 30 percent
and more, including textile machinery, mining,
agricultural machinery and robotics and
automation. Liquid pumps, foundry machinery,
food processing and packaging machinery and
power systems (turbines), on the other hand,
suffered losses.
Ø total 1%
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Monthly bulletin
Source: VDMA
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 7 | May 2017
Business situation and expectations
Manufacturing industry in Germany
Balance of positive-negative replies, seasonally adjusted
Current assessment
In the manufacturing sector, the index fell
slightly in April. Manufacturers are
nevertheless more satisfied with their current
business situation this month. After increasing
sharply last month, their business
expectations, however, are somewhat less
optimistic.
6-month expectations
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Monthly bulletin
Source: ifo-Institut, VDMA
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 8 | May 2017
Economic situation of German mechanical engineering
b) times series
a) latest
Subject
Period
Unit
Turnover
Jan.-Febr.
billion EUR
Production (preliminary) Jan.-Febr.
Exports
Imports
Jan.-Febr.
Jan.-Febr.
Incoming orders
2016
2017
29,6
31,1
%-Change
2017/2016
4,9
3,9
Index
billion EUR
billion EUR
Subject
2,6
23,3
10,4
24,3
10,5
4,5
0,5
Turnover
1
Unit
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
billion EUR
200,5
206,9
205,8
212,1
217,8
214,6
15,7
3,2
-0,5
3,1
(%-change yoy)
percent
Exports
billion EUR
2,7 .
142,2
149,4
149,0
151,5
155,5
155,9
3,4
Export share
percent
75,4
76,8
76,4
76,3
77,3
76,7
0,2
Share of world trade 3 percent
16,3
15,9
16,3
16,1
15,4
Index
Total
Jan.-March
2
1
Domestic
Foreign
Jan.-March
Jan.-March
5
1
4
0
EURO partner countries Jan.-March
14
13
Non EURO countries
Jan.-March
-3
-4
Orders on hand
February
Month
Employees
February
Thousand
Capacity utilization
April
percent
2
Production
real Index
(%-change yoy)
percent
12,7
1,2
-1,2
1,1
0,8
0,1
Employees 4
Thousand
948
978
993
1008
1012
1.008
(%-change yoy)
percent
3,8
3,2
1,6
1,5
*) Figures for 2016 has not yet been revised.
0,4 .
Source: Federal Statistical Office, VDM A
1) Data for kind-of-activity units with 50 and more employees according to WZ 2008 (28;3312;3320).
2) Exports in per cent of production.
5,8
5,9
1004
1007
0,3
84,1
85,6
1,8
3) German share of machine trade of top machinery supplier countries.
4) Yearly average; Only full-time workers, without temporary staffing; Data for kind-of-activity units with 50 and more employees
Monthly bulletin
Price indices
Index
Producer price index
March
1,0
Export price index
March
1,2
Import price index
March
0,3
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
according to WZ 2008 (28;3312;3320).
Page 9 | May 2017
Dr. Ralph Wiechers
Contact.
VDMA Volkswirtschaft und Statistik
Lyoner Str. 18
60528 Frankfurt
Monthly bulletin
Phone +49 69 6603-1371
E-mail [email protected]
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 10 | May 2017