Who should
win the
Naismith
Award?
By: Jared Kunze and Tyler Schatz
Ty Lawson
North Carolina
Blake Griffin
Oklahoma
•Big 12 Player of the Year
•Unanimous 1st Team All-Big 12
PPG
21.9
AST
2.3
REB
14.3
BLK
1.3
•ACC Player of the Year
•1st Team All-ACC
STL
1.2
PPG
15.9
AST
6.5
REB
2.8
BLK
.1
STL
2.0
Jeff Teague
Wake Forest
Hasheem Thabeet
Connecticut
•Co-Big East Player of the Year
•Big East Defensive Player of the Year
•1st Team All-Big East
•2nd Team All-ACC
PTS
19.1
AST
3.5
REB
3.4
BLK
.6
STL
1.9
PTS
13.7
AST
.5
REB
10.9
BLK
4.6
STL
.6
Jerel McNeal
Marquette
DaJuan Blair
Pittsburgh
•1st Team All-Big East
PTS
19.7
AST
4.0
REB
4.6
•Co-Big East Player of the Year
•1st Team All-Big East
BLK
.6
STL
2.1
PTS
15.6
AST
1.1
REB
12.2
BLK
1.0
STL
1.5
James Harden
Arizona State
Tyreke Evans
Memphis
•PAC 10 Player of the Year
•Unanimous 1st Team All-PAC 10
PTS
20.8
AST
4.2
REB
5.5
BLK
.3
•Sporting News National Freshman of the Year
•1st Team All-Conference USA
STL
1.7
PTS
16.6
AST
3.8
REB
5.5
BLK
.8
STL
2.1
Toney Douglas
Florida State
Tyler Hansbrough
North Carolina
•ACC Defensive Player of the Year
•1st Team All-ACC
PTS
21.3
AST
2.9
REB
3.9
BLK
.4
•2008 Naismith Award Winner
•Unanimous 1st Team All-ACC
STL
1.9
PTS
21.4
AST
3.5
REB
3.4
BLK
.4
STL
1.0
•Only statistically significant increase in
probability of scoring 20+ points against
RPI Top 50 teams is Toney Douglas
•RPI Top 50  .900
•Non-RPI Top 50  .625
•2 Players had a statistically significant
decrease in probability of scoring 20+:
Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet
•Griffin.833 to .385
•Thabeet.250 to .000
Using a binomial probability simulation, find which player will
make the most field goals per game in the national tournament.
Assume that each player takes 15 shots per game. Use the Vs.RPI
Top 50 field goal percentage of the players because the
competition in the tournament will be tough.
Griffin- .592
Lawson- .542
Teague- .484
Hansbrough- .462
Evans- .363
Blair- .591
Thabeet- .603
McNeal- .375
Douglas- .436
Harden- .473
Elmore Index
• Player rating system based on the ideas of ESPN
College Basketball announcer Len Elmore
• Elmore Index
–
–
–
–
–
–
Points/Game
Rebounds/Game
Assists/Game
Steals/Game
Blocks/Game
Team Wins
X5
X3
X2
X2
X2
X5
Continued..
• Elmore Ratings:
1. Blake Griffin-297.0
2. Tyler Hansbrough-272.2
3. Tyreke Evans-267.9
4. DaJuan Blair-261.8
5. Toney Douglas-253.6
6. James Harden-252.9
7. Hasheem Thabeet-247.6
8. Jerel McNeal-245.7
9. Ty Lawson-244.6
10. Jeff Teague-237.7
Works Cited
• espn.com
• Article: http://dailyorange.com/ (Title:
Oklahoma’s Griffin on inside track for Naismith
award)
• Conference websites for ACC, Big East, Big 12,
Pac 10, Conference USA