Autonomous Vehicles
Self-driving (2020) versus autonomous vehicle (2025)?
How will various firms respond to these developments?
1) Gain deep access to advanced knowledge
a. Google - build and drive; strategic alliance with Ford? Autonomous
from the beginning
b. Google has the technology lead in combining hardware and software,
plus information services, plus servers, plus search
c. Google: neural networks, AI, machine learning, machine vision
d. Uber – create research center at Carnegie Mellon
e. GM – invest $500 million in Lyft – valued at $4.5 billion (Uber at $62
billion)
f. Alibaba also invested in Lyft
Ford, GM, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan-Renault, and Toyota have all opened R&D
centers in Silicon Valley over the past several years.
2) Car as a Service (CaaS)
a. Ride sharing
b. Delivery services
c. Google's strategy is to provide the technology infrastructure, maps and
software to make CaaS happen sometime after 2020.
3) In vehicle infotainment
How will governments respond?
1)
2)
3)
4)
$400 million per year for 10 years for research
Regulatory changes – supportive or resistance?
Eliminate hurdles and reregulate based on mixed human-robot system
Variety of regulations across state and local governments
California rules: http://dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto
mandate that autonomous vehicles be operated by a licensed driver who could
take over if necessary.
driver would also be on the hook for traffic violations.
manufacturers of self-driving cars would have to subject their vehicles to a thirdparty safety test.
And they would apply for three-year permits that would allow them to lease but
not sell self-driving cars to the public.
The D.M.V.’s draft is basically a starting point for two workshops — one in
Sacramento, another in Los Angeles — where regulators and manufacturers will
talk about rules for allowing ordinary people to operate self-driving cars.
Turns out, though, their accident rates are twice as high as for regular cars,
according to a study by the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research
Institute in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Driverless vehicles have never been at fault, the
study found: They’re usually hit from behind in slow-speed crashes by inattentive
or aggressive humans unaccustomed to machine motorists that always follow the
rules and proceed with caution.
How will these car-robots work?
Systems of systems
Systems integration
Outsourcing versus vertical integration – which is best?
Already in Some Cars
Antilock brakes
Electronic stability control
Lane keeping
Lane departure warning
Pedestrian detection
Driver fatigue/distraction alert
Cruise control/adaptive cruise control
Forward collision avoidance
Automatic braking
Automated parking
Adaptive headlights
Traffic sign detection
Coming
Handoff from human to car and back
Multiple and cooperating cameras (redundancy?) and sensors equipped with Kinect-like
capabilities:
Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) sensors to build a detailed view of the world
around them.
Lidar works by rapidly firing laser light away from the car and measuring how
much light is reflected back - a similar principle to radar, which uses radio waves
instead.
Traffic jam assistance
Super cruise control
Night assistance thermal imaging
V2X and V2V communications cars and roads communicate via AI-based software
Overcome problems with snow – distorts road
Google's autonomous vehicle software lacks the ability to predict and react to "once in a
million" events -- such as performing under diverse weather conditions, unique road
work, specific traffic situations and other non-traditional driving situations.
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The technology adds about $250 to the cost of a car, although this will go down in the future
We need a critical mass of V2X-equipped vehicles on the roads before the benefits begin to show
Even though the U.S. Government will likely mandate inclusion of V2X for all cars built after
2019, under 10 percent of vehicles on the road are less than a year old and the aftermarket for V2X
devices hasn't started to be developed
The secure credential management system (SCMS) needed to ensure the authenticity, security, and
privacy of V2X communications has yet to be implemented
Note the network effects!
Intersection assistance
Traffic light detection
Autos will need:
Satellite connections for GPS
Cameras that see in the dark and measure distances
Fully electronic systems for all operations
V2X and V2V connections
Street level digitized maps of everywhere
Multiple connected and cooperating CPUs and GPUs
Master O/S
Multiple apps fully integrated
AI based software systems - why is this so important?
Stages of implementation of Autos
1) 1990-2005
Application of computer-based systems to cars – anti-lock brakes and
adaptive cruise control
2) 2005 – 2013
More sophisticated automatic support systems – electronic stability control,
various warning devices based on cameras: lane keeping and warning; self
parking; backup collision avoidance; collision ahead stopping; right turn
warning; GPS; satellite based systems
3) 2014-2020
Sophisticated driving systems for limited self-driving and V2V; government
mandated devices; better driver monitors - eyes
4) 2020 – 2025
Limited autonomous vehicles
5) 2025-2030
Fully autonomous vehicles
6) 2020-? Ubiquitous infrastructure support
V2X/V2V IoT
7) 2040 – human drivers are banned from roads
Google vs. Apple vs Toyota vs Mercedes vs Tesla vs Ford vs GM?
January 12, 2015
Self-driving cars drew 5-10 years closer to reality in the last week. That’s the impact of a half-dozen
automakers announcing plans at CES 2015 for autonomous driving vehicles that will be on the road
sometime between 2017 and 2020. To underscore how close we’ve come, Audi sent a car 560 miles from
Silicon Valley to Las Vegas with lightly trained drivers — journalists, actually — sitting behind the wheel,
hands-off.
Also at CES, Mercedes-Benz unveiled a swoopy prototype self-driver, the F 015 Luxury in Motion. The
front seats swivel so driver and passenger can sit face to face with back seat passengers. BMW showed a
self-parking i3 EV, not just parallel parking but able to hunt through a parking garage for open spaces. The
same sensors avoid cars and pedestrians while under way. Ford CEO Mark Fields in a CES keynote said
Ford will produce an autonomous driving car for the masses who can’t afford Audi/BMW/Mercedes level
pricing.
Gesture Controls for Passengers
The Mercedes is built to enable a constant exchange of information between vehicle,
passengers and the outside world. Inside the car, six display screens are integrated
into the instrument panel and the rear and side panels, allowing passengers to
control systems using gestures
Ford Opens Lab in Silicon Valley
By Molly Wood
January 22, 2015 6:23 pm January 22, 2015 6:23 pm
Photo
Mark Fields, Ford’s chief executive, speaking at the International CES earlier this month. Under Mr.
Fields, Ford has moved aggressively to establish itself as a technological innovator.Credit Ethan
Miller/Getty Images
In the latest sign that the distinctions between the auto and tech industries are becoming more blurry, Ford
on Thursday celebrated the opening of a new research center in Palo Alto, Calif., in the heart of Silicon
Valley.
The company said the new center would help advance new car technologies like built-in Internet
connections and eventually self-driving vehicles. It will be led by Dragos Maciuca, a former senior
engineer at Apple who has also led research and development at Lockheed Martin.
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04.03.15
7:00 am
This Is Big: A Robo-Car Just Drove Across the Country
Gallery STEPHEN LAM/Reuters/Corbis
Click to Open Overlay
An autonomous car just drove across the country.
Nine days after leaving San Francisco, a blue car packed with tech from a company you’ve probably never
heard of rolled into New York City after crossing 15 states and 3,400 miles to make history. The car did 99
percent of the driving on its own, yielding to the carbon-based life form behind the wheel only when it was
time to leave the highway and hit city streets.
This amazing feat, by the automotive supplier Delphi, underscores the great leaps this technology has taken
in recent years, and just how close it is to becoming a part of our lives. Yes, many regulatory and legislative
questions must be answered, and it remains to be seen whether consumers are ready to cede control of their
cars, but the hardware is, without doubt, up to the task.
The iCar?
March 24th 2015 | Multiple countries | Passenger vehicles
Apple has a habit of disrupting established industries. But has it really set its sights on the automotive
industry too?
When it comes to product development, Apple likes to play its cards close to its chest. The Cupertino,
California-based company has initiated Project Titan and is hiring automotive engineers and car designers,
but whether it is actually working on a motor vehicle remains a matter of conjecture. According to a joke
making rounds in Silicon Valley: the Apple iCar, if it is ever created, will certainly have no Windows.
Since its inception in the early 1970s, Apple invented the personal computer - changing the world forever and went on to disrupt the music business and then the cell phone business. It then turned its attention back
to personal computers, dealing the industry a major blow with its iPad. It is currently trying to get young
people to wear wristwatches, while changing yet again the way they communicate with each other.
World's First Autonomous Truck Goes Into Operation
By Paul A. Eisenstein
5/5/15
The world's first autonomous 18-wheeler is getting down to business. At a ceremony at the Las Vegas
Motor Speedway on Tuesday, Gov. Brian Sandoval handed over an official Nevada license plate for use by
a new Freightliner Inspiration Truck on public roads.
Though a human "driver" will need to sit behind the wheel in case of an emergency, the new system is
intended to usher in an era that could very well lead to fleets of trucks that have no humans on board at all,
said Wolfgang Bernhard, the board member overseeing truck operations at Freightliner's parent, Daimler
AG.
NYT
Google to Test Bubble-Shaped Self-Driving Cars in Silicon Valley
By CONOR DOUGHERTY and AARON M. KESSLERMAY 15, 2015
Photo
A prototype of Google's self-driving car. Credit Tony Avelar/Associated Press
SAN FRANCISCO — The world is one step closer to the day when people can, in good conscience, drive
to work while sipping coffee, texting with a friend and working on a laptop computer.
On Friday, Google announced that sometime this summer several prototype versions of its self-driving cars
are set to hit the streets of Mountain View, Calif., the search giant’s hometown. The move is still just
another round of testing but it is a significant step toward a pilot program in which regular consumers could
ride in self-driving cars.
A Dialogue of Car and Highway
By Quentin Hardy
June 10, 2015 6:30 pm June 10, 2015 6:30 pm
Traffic in Stockholm on a morning in April 2014. IBM said it helped reduce traffic in
the Swedish capital by a fourth.Credit Jonathan Nackstrand for The New York Times
One peek at all the electronics under the hood is proof that today’s car is as much computer as engine.
Examine the larger picture, and you’ll see how much the stuff around cars is becoming smarter, too.
Smart roads, toll plazas, traffic lights and signs are all increasingly connected to cars. Connected cars are
talking to one another, and to the devices over and around them. Often the reasons for this will involve cost
savings and faster-moving traffic. Travel will be safer, too, advocates say.
Special Section: Transportation
A look at how technology is changing how we get around
“Cars won’t be by themselves anymore, they’ll be connected to the road and each other,” said Eric-Mark
Huitema, a manager in IBM’s “Smarter Cities” initiative. “Eventually there won’t be many accidents,
which means you can reduce the weight of a car by 70 percent, all the metal we put in there to protect
people. Cars might be made of glass.”
That is a decade or more away, but already IBM says it has helped reduce traffic by
25 percent in Stockholm, in part by examining traffic patterns and telling people the
best times to drive. In Singapore, there is a pilot project to override traffic lights
when the roads detect an accident. At IBM buildings in Copenhagen and Amsterdam,
the company monitors bicycle use among employees in some locations, giving
bonuses to people who forgo autos for bikes on a daily basis.
One way Audi plans to inspire confidence in consumers is by taking design cues from commercial
airplanes, which people already trust, even when they know that a computerized autopilot is guiding them
through the air.
A coming Audi A8 will be loaded with redundancies — two braking systems, two steering systems — so
that if one fails, the computers can use the other to operate the vehicle. The concept is inspired by planes,
which often fly with three versions of their most crucial components.
Another pair of redundant systems is, essentially, the car’s eyes. A front- and rear-facing camera system,
along with a highly precise GPS, can tell Audi prototypes where they are on the track, which the computer
has memorized. If the positions the systems give don’t match, the automation shuts down.
Fortune
3 ways AT&T wants to cash in on connected cars
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by
Jeff John Roberts
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@jeffjohnroberts
July 23, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
The phone company is now a car company! Well not
really, but AT&T offered some insights onto how it will
try to make money from Internet-connected cars.
On its quarterly earnings today, AT&T boasted of 2.1 million new subscribers. That’s an impressive feat in
a saturated phone market – until you realize that most of those subscriptions aren’t for phones at all, but
instead for tablets and 1 million “connected cars.”
The arrival of connected cars is intriguing as both a technology breakthrough and as a business opportunity,
and AT&T is poised to be a prime beneficiary. On an earnings call Thursday afternoon, the company set
out three car-related revenue streams it hopes to tap:
1) Selling data and marketing information to car makers
NYT
Among the States, Self-Driving Cars Have Ignited a Gold Rush
AUG. 6, 2015
A traffic signal at an intersection in MCity, a 32-acre testing environment for
driverless vehicles, in Ann Arbor, Mich. Credit Laura McDermott for The New York
Times
By DINO GRANDONI
Whether it is fuel savings, safer commutes or freed-up time behind the wheel, drivers have many reasons to
embrace self-driving cars.
But another group is just as eager to see these vehicles on the road: politicians.
Lawmakers from California, Texas and Virginia are wooing the autonomous car industry, along with the
jobs and tax revenue that come with it.
They are financing research centers, building fake suburbs for testing the cars, and, perhaps most important,
going light on regulation, all in an effort to attract a rapidly growing industry.
The prize: A piece of the estimated $20 billion automakers and other companies will spend globally on
development over the next five years, according to an analysis by Gartner.
Toyota to Finance $50 Million ‘Intelligent’ Car Project
By JOHN MARKOFFSEPT. 4, 2015
Gill Pratt is leaving his position at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
to direct Toyota’s artificial intelligence effort.
The Toyota Motor Corporation announced on Friday an ambitious $50 million robotics and artificial
intelligence research effort, in collaboration with Stanford University and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, to develop “intelligent” rather than self-driving cars.
The distinction is a significant one, according to Gill Pratt, a prominent American roboticist, who has left
his position at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Pentagon to direct the new effort.
Toyota plans $1B R&D push on A.I. and robotics in U.S.
More like this
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Toyota's A.I. research efforts could mean cars that anticipate traffic,...
Toyota's Highway Teammate, a modified Lexus GS the company is using to trial
autonomous driving technology. Credit: Toyota Motor
A new R&D center will open in January, headed by a former DARPA scientist
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By Martyn Williams
Follow
IDG News Service | Nov 5, 2015 9:16 PM PT
Toyota plans a major push into artificial intelligence and robotics technology research and will invest US$1
billion over the next five years to establish a Silicon Valley research and development center to pursue
those goals.
The Toyota Research Institute will be led by Gill Pratt, who recently joined Toyota from DARPA where he
ran the Robotics Challenge, an event that promoted work on robots that can work with humans.
Some important questions and problems?
Legal
Who or what will have liability for an autonomous vehicle?
Insurance
Who or what will be required to purchase insurance? What coverage?
Political
Should governments assist in creating the conditions for network effects?
Mandate standards?
Where do autonomous vehicles already exist?
AVs are already a reality in selected applications that feature controlled
environments, such as mining and farming. In these cases, the restricted nature
of operations and the possibility to operate on private roads facilitate adoption.
Some of the benefits of autonomy in these fields include labor-cost savings and
the reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through optimized driving
(shown to cut emissions by as much as 60 percent). Other adjacent equipment
applications—for example, in the construction and warehousing sectors—should
see the next AV applications for vehicles such as excavators, forklifts, and loaders.
In the medium term (through 2040), on-highway trucks will likely be the first
vehicles to feature the full technology on public roads. Prototypes already exist,
and companies are currently developing the software algorithms needed to
handle complex driving situations. Long-term automated commercial fleets
might include vehicles for parcel delivery as well as automated drones, which
multiple players are already field-testing.
What strategies will auto companies employ in the early stages (2015-2025)?
Premium incumbents. Established premium players with extensive customer
bases and strong technical and commercial legacies will probably take an
incremental approach to AVs. This likely means they will gradually introduce
increasing levels of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in their vehicles.
Attackers. New industry players developing “radically new” vehicle
architectures—such as high- tech giants, first-tier suppliers, and mobility
operators—will focus on the “accessible mobility” consumer segment to
capture volumes quickly and sustain ancillary business models. Fast followers. These OEMs have significant technical and commercial
legacies. They will most likely invest in AV research and then wait for the
vehicle-level costs of the core technologies to drop while penetration in the
premium segments grows. Late entrants/nonadopters. As the name implies, these automakers will avoid
entering the AV market in the short to medium term. Other strategies?
New mobility models emerge. While OEMs are developing autonomous
vehicles, a variety of other transport-mobility innovations are already
hitting the road. Many of these take the form of pay-per-use models such
as car sharing, carpooling, “e-hailing” taxi alternatives, and peer-to-peer
car rentals. These plays are attracting investments and seeing impressive
growth rates. The e-hailing model in particular has experienced strong
growth given both annual investment funding and market penetration. Will car rental companies be best positioned to do this?
Is this a form of cannibalization?
Strategies in the Intermediate period (2025-2035)?
4. The car-service landscape changes. The proliferation of AVs could represent
an opportunity for car OEMs. As of 2014, for example, roughly 80 percent
of the car-service shops in Germany were “independent” from OEMs.
Given the safety-critical nature of AV technologies, customers might
strongly prefer strict adherence to OEM service processes and the use of
original service equipment when it comes to maintaining and repairing AV
systems. This could imply a disadvantaged position for independent
service providers unable to afford AV-maintenance systems. Furthermore,
our research shows that nearly 60 percent of customers would follow their
smart cars’ recommendations for service locations. Beyond the benefits of
a bigger after-sales revenue stream, OEMs will have a strong incentive to
service these vehicles, since regulators could ultimately force them to take
on the greatest portion of the responsibility and risk associated with
crashes caused by AV technical failures.
5. Car insurers might shift their business model. Car insurers have always
provided consumer coverage in the event of accidents caused by human
error. With driverless vehicles, auto insurers might shift the core of their
business model, focusing mainly on insuring car manufacturers from
liabilities from technical failure of their AVs, as opposed to protecting
private customers from risks associated with human error in accidents.
This change could transform the insurance industry from its current focus
on millions of private consumers to one that involves a few OEMs and
infrastructure operators, similar to insurance for cruise lines and shipping
companies. 6. Companies could reshape their supply chains.
AV technologies could help to optimize the industry supply chains and
logistics operations of the future, as players employ automation to increase
efficiency and flexibility. AVs in combination with smart technologies
could reduce labor costs while boosting equipment and facility
productivity. What’s more, a fully automated and lean supply chain can
help reduce load sizes and stocks by leveraging smart distribution
technologies and smaller AVs.
Impact of High Levels of AV Penetration
7. Drivers have more time for everything.
AVs could free as much as 50 minutes a day for users, who will be able to spend
traveling time working, relaxing, or accessing entertainment. The time saved by
commuters every day might add up globally to a mind-blowing one billion
hours—equivalent to twice the time it took to build the Great Pyramid of Giza. It
could also create a large pool of value, potentially generating global digital-media
revenues of €5 billion per year for every additional minute people spend on the
mobile Internet while in a car.
8. Parking becomes easier.
AVs could change the mobility behavior of consumers, potentially reducing the
need for parking space in the United States by more than 5.7 billion square
meters. Multiple factors would contribute to the reduction in parking
infrastructure. For example, self-parking AVs do not require open-door space for
dropping off passengers when parked, allowing them to occupy parking spaces
that are 15 percent tighter.
9. Accident rates drop.
By midcentury, the penetration of AVs and other ADAS could ultimately cause
vehicle crashes in the United States to fall from second to ninth place
in terms of their lethality ranking among accident types. Today, car
crashes have an enormous impact on the US economy. For every
person killed in a motor-vehicle accident, 8 are hospitalized, and 100
are treated and released from emergency rooms. The overall annual
cost of roadway crashes to the US economy was $212 billion in 2012.
Taking that year as an example, advanced ADAS and AVs reducing
accidents by up to 90 percent would have potentially saved about $190
billion.
10. AVs accelerate robotics development for consumer applications.
The broad penetration of AVs will likely accelerate the development of robotics
for consumer applications (including humanoid robots), since the two share
many technologies. These include remote advanced sensing, hyperprecise
positioning/GPS, image recognition, and advanced artificial intelligence. In
addition to sharing technology, AVs and robots could benefit from using the same
infrastructure, including recharging stations, service centers, and machine-tomachine communication networks. These commonalities might push multiple
players to invest in both applications, as already shown by the significant
investments in robotics made by selected automakers and high-tech players.
Other changes and opportunities from AVs
Highway communities – social media on long trips
Fusion of social media and AVs with intelligent sensors
Over the past 20 years, digital tools have changed the way people meet, access
knowledge, and navigate—all built upon networks, sensors, mobile communication, and
real-time information. These technologies are only now beginning to enter the urban
space. In effect, more and more intelligence is suffusing our cities. It is possible to
collect real-time information, seamlessly, on every dimension of urban life. HubCab, for
example, is a web-based interactive visualization that looks at how New York’s 170
million annual taxi trips connect the city.
A parallel trend is happening with regard to the automobile: cars collect information
about passengers and about the environment.
By combining ride sharing with car sharing—particularly in a citymsuch as New York—
MIT research has shown that it would be possible to take every passenger to his or her
destination at the time they need to be there, with 80 percent fewer cars.
How do cities change as a result of 80% fewer cars?
Business Opportunities
Makers and Developers
Infrastructure of sensors and high speed wireless internet
Aftermarket
Services for Passengers
Support systems
Insurance
Legal
Government
Coupled changes:
Time
Ownership or not (new disposable income)
Environmental Changes
Smart environments and AVs
Fewer cars
Decline in taxi drivers and truck drivers
Drone robotic delivery