Nigeria’s 2016 Budget
HIGHLIGHTS (NGN’ Bn)
Total Revenue
2016
2015
3,855.8
3,452.4
11.7
813.1
1,637.9
-50.4
Non-Oil Revenue
1,536.8
1,214.7
26.5
Independent Revenue & others
1,581.2
599.8
163.6
6,060.7
4,493.4
34.9
2,646.4
2,593.21
2.05
300
-
100
1,587.6
557.0
185.0
31%
12%
1,475.3
953.6
54.7
-2,204.9
-1.041.0
111.8
2016
2015
Real GDP Growth rate (%)
4.4
3.4
-20.5
Nominal GDP (N’Trillion)
103
94
9.4
Average Exch rate (NGN/$)
197
190
-3.7
Inflation rate (%)
9.81
10.2
3.8
Growth of non-oil export (%)
16.5
16.5
0
Crude oil production (mbpd)
2.2
2.3
-3.4
Oil price benchmark ($/barrel)
38
53
-28
-2.14
-1.09
0.96
Oil Revenue
Aggregate Expenditure
Recurrent Non-Debt
Special Intervention Program
Capital Expenditure
Capex % of total expenditure**
Debt Service
Budget Deficit
Macro-Economic Outlook
Projections (MTEF)
Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
Highlights of Revenue and Expenditure
%Change
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% Change
**Total capital expenditure is circa NGN 1.8 trillion which
includes NGN156 billion under Statutory Transfers and
NGN 86 billion in Debt Service.
Oil revenue is expected to decline by 50% while non-oil
revenue is projected to increase by 26.5%.
Increase in non-oil tax revenue will come mainly from
Company Income Tax and Value Added Tax expected to
increase by 33.2% and 14.9% respectively.
Spending is planned to increase in 2016 (compared to
2015) by about 35% to an aggregate expenditure of N6.06
trillion.
Non-debt recurrent expenditure for 2016 which
represents about 43.7% of the aggregate expenditure is
expected to rise by 2% to NGN2.646 trillion. This includes
NGN300 billion special intervention fund.
Capital expenditure is proposed to increase by about
180% to NGN1.58 trillion which constitutes about 30% of
total expenditure.
The ministry of works, power and housing was allocated
NGN423 billion or 26.6% of the capital expenditure being
the top recipient of capital spending.
The federal government has earmarked NGN2 billion for
the National Job Creation/Graduate Internship scheme.
Debt service



The debt service cost is expected to increase by 54.7% (to
a record NGN1.475 trillion) accounting for about 24.3% of
total expenditure or 38% of revenue notwithstanding a
low debt to GDP ratio of circa 13%.
NGN1.3 trillion and NGN54.5 billion are required to
service foreign and domestic debt respectively.
A sinking fund of 113.4 billion is for the purpose of
retiring matured loans.
Capital Expenditure of Key Ministries (NGN’Bn)
Ministry
MTEF is Medium Term Expenditure Framework

Actual inflation year on year as at April 2016 was 13.7%

Real GDP growth rate for Q1 2016 was -0.36%
2016 REVENUE GENERATION SPLIT (MTEF)
PPT
13%
VAT
5%
other oil
revenues
8%
CIT
23%
CIT
Customs
other non-oil
revenue
4%
2016
2015
% Growth
46.2
8.8
425.0
130.9
36.7
257.0
Education
35.4
23.5
51.0
Healthcare
28.7
22.7
26.0
Solid Minerals
7.3
1
630.0
Transportation
188.7
14.1
1238.0
Works, Power & Housing
423.0
26.6
1490.0
Agriculture
Defence
Tax Proposals in 2016 Budget Speech

Customs
8%
FGN
Independent
revenue
39%
FGN
Independent
revenue
other non-oil
revenue




There was no proposal to change tax rates or impose new
taxes in 2016.
The budget speech was silent on the proposals to introduce
a National Security Tax and the proposed increase in
Tertiary Education Tax.
Government is however focused on measures to increase
the tax base and overall compliance rate in the country.
Luxury tax is expected to generate NGN15billion but no
disclosure of measures to implement.
It was mentioned that the tax rate for smaller businesses
will be reduced.