Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLYREGULATED MARKETS: SOME CONCEPTUAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE STUDIES OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND DECISION
THEORY
Rodrigo Carlana da Silva & Denis Lima Balaguer
Embraer
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Introduction
Motivation
• Challenge: the need to extend the methods beyond the
technology domains and integrated these methods with
another type of forecasting, like those used in
economics, politics and meteorology.
• Solution: contribute to comprehend the nature of the
future and, by hypothesis correlated to this
comprehension, establish a technological prospective
method which integrates knowledge from fields such as
science & technology public policy analysis, philosophy
and sociology of science & technology and decision
theory.
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Central Hypothesis
What is the future made of?
• the future is not a continuation of the past but rather
as the outcome of the wishes various actors and the
constraints imposed on them by the environment. Its
purpose is to assist in creating alternative futures and
then to select some alternative that allows for maximum
freedom of action
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Central Hypothesis
Range of converge of the future and the
institutional impedance
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Central Hypothesis
Generic Technological Prospective Method
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Introduction
• It may not be expected a perfectly accurate and highly
precise prospective. On the other hand, it’s expected
that the prospective limit the extension of the
uncertainty and provide valuable information to the
technology planning manager.
• Method limitations (conceptual framework):
– Applicable only to high-regulated markets,
• Barriers to the introduction of technological innovations,
because of the precautionary principle
• Concept of Big Science valid.
– Time limit of the descriptive scenario
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Actors Analysis and Yearnings Determination
• Science & Technology System Dynamic
Influence of the
dominant s&t
paradigm in
“goals-building”
HIgh dependence of
Governmental Funding
“Goals-building” in
accordance to
social wishes
Normal Science
Paradigm
S&T Medialization
Strong
government
influence in R&D
objectives
Resources
acquittal underling
to a list of goals
(normative
scenario)
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Actors Analysis and Yearnings Determination
• Theoretical Model of the Future
Today
10 years
20 years
Zeitgeist Area
50 years
100 years
Grey Area
Normal Science
Influence Zone
New Paradigms
Influence Zone
Social
Tissue
Signal of
Relevance
$
$
$
$
ST&I Policy
$
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Actors Analysis and Yearnings Determination
Actors Analysis
Desires
Determination
Public Policy
Analysis
Normative
Scenario
Identification
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Possible Technologies Survey
• Consonance with the conceptual proposition presented
above - the importance of the dominant paradigm to the
technological future determination:
– the technique that seems to be the most appropriate is
bibliometric analysis.
•The bibliometric analysis indicates which are, under the
scientific publication point of view, the most prominent
research fields.
• “Publish or perish”
– the science that’s not communicated doesn’t exist.
– a private science is just as unthinkable as a private
language
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Possible Technologies Survey
Possible
Technologies
Survey
Bibliometric
Analysis
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Selection of Technologies Given the Yearning
•The election of technologies given the yearnings can be
divided in 4 stages:
1.Criteria definition and problem structure definition;
2.Criteria priorization of hierarchical structure;
3.Criteria priorization of non hierarchical structure;
4.Technology priorization.
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Selection of Technologies Given the Yearning
Goal
AHP
Criterion 1
Subcriterion
1.1
Relationship
matrix
Traditional
KT
Criterion 2
Subcriterion
1.2
Subcriterion
2.1
Subcriterion
2.2
...
pm
Technology 1
a11
a12
...
a1m
∑ a1j.pj
Technology 2
a21
a22
...
a2m
∑ a2j.pj
...
anm
...
an1
an2
...
p2
...
p1
Technology n
Subcriterion
m
...
Subcriterion
4
...
Subcriterion
3
∑ anj.pj
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Method Description
Selection of Technologies Given the Yearning
Possible
Technologies
Survey
Bibliometric
Analysis
TOWARD A TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTIVE METHOD FOR HIGHLY-REGULATED MARKETS
Conclusion
Proposed method deployed from the generic method
Actors Analysis
Desires
Determination
Possible
Technologies
Survey
Selection of
Technologies
given the
Yearning
TMF & MKT2P
Public Policy
Analysis
Normative
Scenario
Identification
Bibliometric
Analysis
Multi-Criteria
Analysis