Futures thinking and decisionmaking at system level
Gábor Halász
National Institute for Public Education
Hungary
„Futures Thinking for Education: Policy, Leadership and the Teaching
Profession” (6 - 8 November 2006 - OECD/Japan Seminar – Hiroshima)
Where are education systems going ?
Schools serve the individual
„Survival scenario”
„Market scenario”
Education as a
closed world
Education as
an open world
„Conservation scenario”
This is what most
people in education
would hope
„Transformation scenario”
Schools serve the
community
Source: J-M. Saussois: Scenarios, international comparisons, and key variables for educational scenario analysis. Think scenarios…, OECD, 2006
►►
How to renew educational governance in
order to realise the transformation scenario?
• The context
– Challenges and future trends in governance
beyond education
– Uncertainties, risks and increasing
complexity in education systems
• Facing the new regulation challenge in
education
• Using complexity thinking in renewing
educational governance
►►
Can futures thinking help the renewal
of education governance?
• Leaders and decision makers involved in
futures thinking inevitably face complexity
• Those who try to understand and master
unpredictable futures may be better equipped
to cope with the complexity of the present
• Futures thinking may enhance realism and
modesty in leadership (through the continuous
confrontation of the desirable with the
probable)
►►
Thank you for your
attention!