Labour Supply
and Demand for Major
Projects
Fleur de Lys
A presentation for
Skills Task Force Update Forum
May 2009
Outline
Demand Trends
Medium-Term Supply Constraints
Major Project Demand
Summary
Department of Finance
Newfoundland and Labrador
May 2009
Department
of Finance, NL
2
Construction Industry Employment
Canada
1400
‘000’s PYs
1200
1000
800
600
Jan-00
Department of Finance, NL
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
May 2009
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
3
Construction Industry Employment
NL
20
‘000’s PYs
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
Jan-00
Jan-01
Department of Finance, NL
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
May 2009
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
4
Capital Investment - Canada
300
$’s Billions
Residential
Non-resid
240
180
120
60
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Conference Board of Canada.
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
5
Capital Investment - NL
$ Billions
6
All Other Capital Investment*
Residential Construction
5
4
2000-2008 Average
3
2
1
0
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08r '09i '10f '11f'12f
*Includes non-residential construction and machinery and equipment purchases.
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
6
Workforce is Aging - Age Distribution
of Employment, 1976 and 2008
60
1976
2008
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
15-24
25-34
35-44
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
Department of Finance, NL
45-54
May 2009
55-64
65 +
7
Potential Labour Force Entrants vs.
Potential Retirees, NL
150
15 to 24
55 to 64
135
120
Thousands
105
90
75
60
45
projected
30
15
0
'72
'77
'82
'87
'92
'97
'02
'07
'12
'17
'22
Source: Statistics Canada
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
8
Potential Labour Force Entrants vs.
Potential Retirees, Canada
6
15 to 24
55 to 64
Millions
5
4
3
projected
2
1
0
'72
'77
'82
'87
'92
'97
'02
'07
'12
'17
'22
Source: Statistics Canada
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
9
Scenario 1
Skills Task Force
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
10
Potential Major Project Employment
Direct
12,000
Person Years
Terra Nova
White Rose
Hibernia
IOC
VB/LH
Hebron
LC
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
11
Changes Since Skills Task Force
Construction period for Long Harbour Hydromet changed from
2008-2011 to 2009-2013 – new construction profile
Assumes start of Hebron construction moved from 2010 to
2013 – new construction profile
Assumes sanction of Lower Churchill project moved from
2009 to 2010 – new construction profile
New peak in 2014/2015 – new analysis still indicates possible
shortages of civil engineers, industrial electricians,
ironworkers, concrete finishers, industrial painters, drillers &
blasters, truck drivers, stationary engineers, and electrical
power line & cable workers
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
12
Summary
Recession – 1 to 3 years of relief from labour pressures
Long-term – retirement pressures continue
Demand for construction labour will rebound
Major project demand ramping up in NL
Expect labour supply problems to re-emerge
Meeting major project labour demand will be a challenge
¢
More graduates
¢
Higher productivity, higher participation rates
¢
Key is migration – need to keep current supply, retain new
graduates and attract others
Department of Finance, NL
May 2009
13